MOBILE SERVICES IN DEVELOPED ASIA-PACIFIC: TRENDS AND FORECASTS 2016-2021 - analysysmason.com
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Mobile services in developed Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
RESEARCH FORECAST REPORT
MOBILE SERVICES IN DEVELOPED ASIA–PACIFIC: TRENDS
AND FORECASTS 2016–2021
KEREM ARSAL and CAI SHIYU
analysysmason.com
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017
Mobile services in developed Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
About this report
This report provides commentary and trend analysis to support GEOGR APH IC AL COVER AG E KEY METR ICS
our 5-year forecast for developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP). It includes
both worldwide and specific country commentary on four key Regions modelled: Mobile Connections:
countries: Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea. Developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP) Handset, mobile broadband1,
M2M2
The report provides forecasts that are informed by on-the-ground Prepaid, contract
Countries modelled individually:
market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions, and
Australia 2G, 3G, 4G (LTE)
external interviews.
Hong Kong Smartphone,
For the complete data set for the region, please see the non-smartphone
Japan
accompanying Excel file at www.analysysmason.com/mobile- Mobile Revenue:
Singapore
DVAP-Jan2017. Service3, retail
South Korea
Prepaid, contract
Taiwan
Handset, mobile broadband1,
WHO SHOULD R EAD T HIS R EPOR T M2M2
Detailed country commentary: Handset voice, messaging, data
Market intelligence, strategy and project managers at mobile operators
in DVAP who wish to gain a better understanding of local market Australia Mobile ARPU:
demands and future trends, as well as best practices overseas. Hong Kong SIMs, handset
Regulatory bodies in DVAP that want to deepen their understanding of Singapore Prepaid, contract
local markets and trends in overseas markets. South Korea Handset voice, data
Financial institutions that directly invest in the telecoms sector in the
region, or advise others that do so, in order to gain qualitative and Mobile voice traffic:
quantitative market information. • Outgoing minutes, MoU
Press and media bodies that need a foundation of knowledge of the
mobile telecoms market in Asia–Pacific.
1 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, though not handset-based data.
2 M2M connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.
3 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 2
Mobile services in developed Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Contents
5. Executive summary 19. DVAP – mobile: 4G/5G technology will be used by 95% of all mobile
connections in 2021
6. Executive summary
20. Country-level trends
7. Worldwide trends
21. Australia: Infrastructure developments will help with
8. Worldwide: Revenue will increase in the mobile and fixed segments driven
4G adoption and retail revenue growth
by infrastructure investments in network roll-out
22. Hong Kong: Total service revenue will decline to USD3.7 billion, due to
9. Mobile penetration: Demand for, and the fast pace of take-up
drops in mobile penetration, despite service upgrades
of, mobile in EMAP and SSA will boost global penetration
23. Singapore: The entry of a fourth mobile operator is expected to increase
10. Smartphones and 4G/5G: Smartphones will account for 69% of handsets
competition in the mobile market
worldwide, and take-up will be highest in NA and WE
24. South Korea: Speed upgrades and new tariff plans will lead to service
11. Mobile ARPU: The high level of competition and substitution
revenue growth during the forecast period
by OTT services will continue to put downward pressure on ARPU
25. Forecast methodology and assumptions
12. Regional trends
26. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts
13. DVAP: Mobile handset data revenue increase will be crucial to telecoms
and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
revenue growth in forecast period
27. Our forecasts are informed by primary and secondary research for data
14. Mobile penetration: SIM population penetration rates across all DVAP
collection, a rigorous methodology and our analysis of external drivers
countries will stabilise at an average of 123%
28. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our
15. Mobile connections: 2G is in the process of being phased out; 4G and 5G
forecasts; this involves three main activities
will account for 95% of all mobile connections in 2021
29. About the authors and Analysys Mason
16. Geographical coverage: By 2021, 4G/5G will account for 90% of mobile
connections; FTTB household penetration will reach 93% 30. About the authors
17. Smartphones and 4G/5G: increasing usage of apps and the migration to 31. About Analysys Mason
4G/5G will increase smartphone penetration
32. Research from Analysys Mason
18. Mobile ARPU: Mobile ARPU will maintain steady growth in
33. Consulting from Analysys Mason
DVAP, reaching USD35 per month by the end of the forecast period
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 3
Mobile services in developed Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
List of figures
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
(retail and wholesale), developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, developed Asia–
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide, Pacific, 2011–2021
2015–2021
Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, developed Asia–Pacific,
Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2011–20211
2011–2021
Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, developed
Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G’s share of Asia–Pacific
total connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2015 and 2021
Figure 17: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Australia, 2015–
Figure 5: Mobile ARPU (excluding IoT) by region and worldwide, 2011–2021 2021
Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue Figure 18: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Hong Kong, 2015–
(retail and wholesale), developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021 2021
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and Figure 19: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Singapore, 2015–
growth rates, developed Asia–Pacific, 2015–2021 2021
Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, developed Asia–Pacific, 2015– Figure 20: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, South Korea, 2015–
2021 2021
Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), developed
Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding IoT), and 3G,
4G and 5G’s share of connections, developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA’s share of
fixed broadband connections, by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2021
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G’s share of
total connections (excluding IoT), developed Asia–Pacific, 2015 and 2021
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 4Mobile services in developed Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
WORLDWIDE TRENDS
REGIONAL TRENDS
COUNTRY-LEVEL TRENDS
AUSTRALIA
HONG KONG
SINGAPORE
SOUTH KOREA
FORECAST METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS
ABOUT THE AUTHORS AND ANALYSYS MASON
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 5Mobile services in developed Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Executive summary
Total telecoms retail revenue in developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP) Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and
will grow at a CAGR of 1.5% between 2015 and 2021. Revenue wholesale), developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2021
from mobile handset data will be the main contributor to this
250
growth, and its share of total telecoms retail revenue will grow
steadily to reach 51% in 2021.
200
Operators in developed Asia–Pacific are worldwide leaders in the
Revenue (USD billion)
deployment of advanced technologies, upgrading networks and
improving bandwidths. Countries including Japan and South Korea 150
are conducting 5G trials that focus primarily on high-speed mobile
broadband services. Mobile network operators (MNOs) such as 100
NTT Docomo, Korea Telecom and SK Telecom have joined forces
to develop a common platform standard and a common set of
50
testing specifications for 5G equipment and networks. 5G is
expected to be commercially available by 2020. As a result, mobile
handset data revenue will increase by USD27 billion over the 0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2021
2015
2020
forecast period.
Mobile voice and messaging revenue will gradually decrease
during the forecast period. To sustain traditional core service Retail revenue: Mobile voice Mobile messaging Mobile handset data
revenue, operators will leverage new services such as VoLTE and Mobile broadband Mobile IoT
Rich Communication Services (RCS). Fixed voice and narrowband Fixed broadband and IPTV
Developed Asia–Pacific accounted for 13.2% of total mobile retail Business network services
revenue worldwide in 2015 and this will increase to 14.5% by
2021, thanks to service upgrades and speed enhancements. Service revenue (retail and wholesale):
Source: Analysys Mason
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 6Mobile services in developed Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
Mobile penetration: SIM population penetration rates across all
DVAP countries will stabilise at an average of 123%
Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), developed Asia–Pacific, All countries in developed Asia–Pacific will have high active mobile
2011–2021 SIM penetration rates (over 110%) during the forecast period.
The well-developed and advanced infrastructure in developed
200% Asia–Pacific supports high mobile penetration in the region. This
enables high penetration of mobile apps and OTT services, which
Percentage of the population
drives up the demand for mobile data.
150%
Hong Kong has the highest active mobile SIM penetration rate
in developed Asia–Pacific, both historically and for the forecast
period. However, the rate of penetration has declined and is
100% expected to drop from 205% in 2014 to 181% in 2021.
Singapore has the second-highest penetration rate in DVAP, but
growth will slowly decline and stabilise at 135% by 2021.
50%
The high penetration rates illustrated above may be explained
by the advantageous position as trade and financial hubs that
both these two geographically compact cities hold within Asia–
0% Pacific. Both enjoy large numbers of frequent travellers, which
2011
2012
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2013
2014
also explains the relatively high prepaid SIM share of all
handsets (44% for Hong Kong and 37% for Singapore).
Australia Hong Kong The decline in mobile penetration rates in Hong Kong and
Japan Singapore Singapore is a result of the economic slowdown (both worldwide
and within developed Asia–Pacific); Hong Kong’s and Singapore’s
South Korea Taiwan
reliance on tourism makes them particularly vulnerable to global
Developed Asia–Pacific and regional economic trends. This is narrowing the gap between
Source: Analysys Mason
these markets and the rest of DVAP.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 14Mobile services in developed Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
WORLDWIDE TRENDS
REGIONAL TRENDS
COUNTRY-LEVEL TRENDS
AUSTRALIA
HONG KONG
SINGAPORE
SOUTH KOREA
FORECAST METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS
ABOUT THE AUTHORS AND ANALYSYS MASON
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 29Mobile services in developed Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
About the authors
Kerem Arsal (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason’s Mobile Services research programme; he also co-leads the
Convergence Strategies research programme. His work involves in-depth coverage of issues such as customer retention, mobile data pricing,
MVNO strategies, and the impact of fixed-mobile convergence on telecom markets. Previously, Kerem was a research manager at Pyramid
Research, where he was responsible for setting the thematic research agenda across multiple tracks and regions. He also headed numerous
projects around operator strategies, as well as commercialisation of, and demand assessment for, new products in the consumer and
enterprise segments. Kerem has a PhD in Information Systems from Boston University.
Cai Shiyu (Research Analyst) Shiyu contributes to Analysys Mason's Asia–Pacific research programme, and is based in our Singapore
office. He had been involved in data collection process as well as analysis of telecoms market trends in developed and emerging Asia–
Pacific. Before joining Analysys Mason, he worked as an intern with business development division of SAP, and conducted qualitative
and quantitative research on cloud computing market. Shiyu holds a Bachelor's degree in finance and operations management at NUS
Business School, Singapore.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2017 30Mobile services in developed Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021
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