Munich Security Index 2023
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M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y I N D E X
Munich Security Index 2023
The world is becoming a riskier place. The Russian war of aggression and its
ramifications have dramatically increased risk perceptions among citizens
around the world. But these traditional security threats only add to, not
replace, citizens’ existing concerns about China or transnational risks like
climate change. The Munich Security Index 2023 is thus a testament to a
new age in global politics marked by an omnipresent sense of insecurity.
Since 2021, the MSC and Kekst CNC have collected data to answer core ques-
tions that help understand citizens’ risk perceptions: do people think that the
world is becoming a riskier place? Is there a global consensus on some of the
grave risks that humanity is facing today? And how prepared do societies
feel to tackle these threats? By combining five metrics, the index provides an
in-depth view of how twelve countries view 32 major risks and how these
perceptions change over time. This edition of the index is based on
representative samples of 1,000 people from each G7 country, BRICS countries,
except Russia (“BICS”), and Ukraine. The total sample thus amounts to
12,000 people. This edition is exceptional because the MSC and Kekst CNC
decided not to poll in Russia and instead include Ukraine. Against the
background of the war and intensifying repressions, conducting meaningful
surveys in Russia is difficult and may lead to unreliable responses. Instead, the
index includes a sample from Ukraine as one of the main sites where competing
order visions are playing out. The polling was conducted from October 19 to
November 7 using industry-leading online panels, with stratified quotas and
weights to gender, age, and region to ensure representativeness. But polling
in Ukraine, which took place from November 8 to 28, came with immense
difficulties. Fieldwork began as Russia was intensifying its bombing of civilian
infrastructure. The ensuing blackouts meant Ukrainians struggled to access
the internet. Surveying by phone therefore had to complement online surveys.
The result of three weeks of fieldwork is a unique snapshot of how Ukrainians
feel about the war, their allies, and the future.
Overall, the Munich Security Index 2023 registers an increase in 20 risk
indicators compared to the previous survey, which itself recorded significantly
higher risk awareness than in the preceding year (Figure 1.13). The Russian
war of aggression is the central driving force of heightened perception of
risk. In all countries surveyed bar India, the risk index score for Russia rose
significantly. While Russia was not seen as a top five risk in any of the G7
countries only a year ago, citizens in five G7 countries now consider Moscow
1M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y I N D E X
the number one risk (Figure 1.12). Differences in risk perceptions between
citizens in G7 countries and others are profound, however. Notwithstanding
sizeable increases in the risk index scores in Brazil, China, and South Africa,
Russia ranks fairly low in four BRICS countries. China continues to be a
significant concern but is considered less of a threat than Russia in all
countries, including Japan and the US. The wider ramifications of Russia’s
war also feature prominently in citizens’ risk perceptions. An economic or
financial crisis is now the aggregate number one risk, likely fueled by rampant
inflation worldwide, which the Russian war has contributed to. Energy supply
disruption ranks a top risk in the UK and South Africa and is considered a
significant risk in most other countries. Amid Putin’s nuclear posturing,
weapons of mass destruction have risen significantly in citizens’ risk awareness,
with concern highest in Ukraine, Germany, and Japan.
While differences between G7 countries and four BRICS countries on
Russia’s war abound, perceptions of environmental risks are widely shared.
On aggregate, climate change ranks as the second highest risk, followed by
destruction of natural habitats in third, and extreme weather and forest fires
in fourth. In Brazil, India, and Italy, environmental risks top the ranking.
Contrary to fears that Russia’s war on Ukraine would distract from other
pressing threats, citizens continue to be acutely aware of so-called non-
traditional security concerns that particularly beset poorer countries. Only a
few risks have fallen in citizens’ perceptions. For instance, the risks of the
coronavirus pandemic plummeted in the rankings in all countries except
China – a manifestation of Beijing’s failed zero-Covid policy (Figure 1.13).
Both the Russian war and the growing systemic competition also shape
citizens’ views of other countries. Russia, like its satellite Belarus, is
overwhelmingly considered a threat except by China, India, and South
Africa (Figure 1.14). Views among G7 countries have converged; Italy,
which held positive views of Russia in the last index, now clearly sees Russia
as a threat. China is also considered more of a threat than an ally in all
G7 countries while viewed as more of an ally in South Africa and Brazil.
Munich Security Japanese and German citizens hold the most critical views of China.
Index
Compared to the last index, Ukraine is the biggest winner in perceptions
powered by
as an ally (Figure 1.15). Poland’s central role in assisting Ukraine has
helped it see the second biggest improvement in views, while the US
continues the trend of the past edition by further improving its reputation.
2M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y I N D E X
Explaining the Index
Index components The Munich Security Index combines the crucial components that make
a risk more serious. Public perceptions of trajectory are combined with
imminence and severity alongside a measure to give equal weight to
perceptions of preparedness.
Question 1 – How great is the overall risk to your
country?
Overall For each of the following, please say how great a risk it poses to
your country.
• Answer scale 0 – 10 [with 0 the lowest and 10 the greatest risk]
Question 2 – Will the risk increase or decrease over
the next twelve months?
Please say for each of the following whether you think the risk
Trajectory posed in your country will increase, decrease, or stay the same in
the next year.
• Answer scale 0 – 10 [with 0 the strongest decrease, 5 no change,
and 10 the strongest increase]
Question 3 – How severe would the damage be if it
happened?
For each of the following, please say how bad you think the
Severity
damage would be in your country if it were to happen or become
a major risk.
• Answer scale 0 – 10 [with 0 very low and 10 very severe damage]
Question 4 – How imminent is the risk?
For each of the following, please say how imminent a threat
you think it is.
Imminence • Answer scale 1 – 8 [with 1 "now or in the next few months"
and 8 "never"]
• Rescaled to 0 – 10 and reversed2
Question 5 – How prepared is your country?
For each of the following, please say how prepared your country is
Preparedness to deal with this threat.
• Answer scale 0 – 10 [with 0 the least and 10 the most prepared]
• Reversed3
Index scores To produce the final risk index score for each risk in each country we add the
mean scores for all five of the inputs above – overall risk, trajectory,
severity, imminence, and preparedness. The resulting total is then rescaled to
run from 0 to 100 for ease of interpretation. The final risk index score is an
absolute figure (with 100 the highest and 0 the lowest possible risk index
score) that can be compared between demographics, countries, and over time.
3M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y I N D E X
Question 1 Question 2 Question 3 Question 4 Question 5
Overall Trajectory Severity Imminence Preparedness
rescaled
+ reversed
reversed
Mean
scores 0 – 10 + 0 – 10 + 0 – 10 + 0 – 10 + 0 – 10
added
0 – 50
rescaled
0 – 100
0 – 10 11 – 20 21 – 30 31 – 40 41 – 50 51 – 60 61 – 70 71 – 80 81 – 90 91 – 100
Besides a risk heatmap (see page 42) that features all twelve countries
surveyed and how they score on each of the 32 risks covered, the Munich
Security Index also includes an overview of how risk perceptions have
changed since the last Munich Security Index was published (see page 43).
Country profiles The index also provides more detailed insights into the individual risk
profiles of the twelve countries surveyed (pages 44-55).
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared
Extreme weather
71 +10 63 28
and forest fires
Climate change generally 69 +9 58 28
Destruction of natural habitats 69 +7 60 29
Change in index score
Change in the risk index score since the last Munich Security Index was published. The 2022
version of the index was based on surveys conducted in November of 2021.
Share thinking risk is imminent
Percentage of respondents who answered “now or in the next few months,” “in the next year,”
and “in the next 5 years” in answer to the question “For each of the following, please say how
imminent a threat you think it is.
Share feeling unprepared
Percentage of respondents who rated their country’s preparedness as less than 6 on a 0 – 10
scale in answer to the question “For each of the following, please say how prepared your country
is to deal with this threat.”
4Figure 1.12
The risk heatmap, October–November 2022, score
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t io l cr fo rall l h co e su ns aign crim e st i sm a rti
M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3
d e ra r r p o p i s p on ed po iol rac
a v c r cou dem -
up ia n n u n a d ea niz we al o c tW rro y a n s m ts
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ly fi n a t h e g e f n l i ty o n e s r i z a o n r w n c t h e
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a a g o a
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y m t a s a m f o f c at f b a do re on w al Ko ch ro o e
e rg ssia ono trem ma stru ing ber od litic ss e o sinf cism ina e o ern e o il w eak futu visi de dic n
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n u c x l e is y o o a s i a h s nt s iv r i ra a ra o a h ig Au Un Eu
E R E E C D R C F P M U D R C U I U C B A D T R I N R T R
South Africa 91 57 81 70 72 70 76 66 77 70 61 56 60 74 54 56 65 54 68 69 61 58 54 42 39 39 59 49 45 47 42 38
United Kingdom 80 77 76 61 65 65 59 61 69 53 57 62 54 49 59 58 54 58 45 49 50 51 48 51 53 44 44 41 45 38 16 16
Germany 68 78 75 73 70 73 74 74 56 62 75 65 61 59 63 62 67 62 51 43 50 58 60 61 56 42 47 42 52 45 31 24
Italy 63 67 76 82 82 78 67 65 51 47 63 60 62 58 50 58 59 58 45 39 51 55 58 48 51 39 35 43 30 40 28 22
Ukraine 76 81 75 53 59 63 44 61 35 44 56 64 68 31 19 72 35 63 29 13 40 37 43 18 39 12 18 29 40 28 1 1
France 68 70 65 69 68 66 64 62 62 48 63 59 55 57 53 56 53 56 56 48 54 53 55 64 57 46 47 48 45 42 22 19
Japan 63 74 59 63 66 63 63 67 58 42 49 67 56 45 71 63 51 62 45 40 57 41 51 43 46 67 38 58 38 48 31 27
Canada 54 69 67 68 65 68 53 61 58 55 54 57 57 49 60 54 51 55 43 39 51 48 46 43 51 46 41 43 45 42 23 14
United States 63 66 66 59 52 59 51 64 61 64 54 58 60 51 61 54 48 54 55 58 52 49 49 49 54 52 54 41 46 41 23
Brazil 45 48 66 71 71 71 67 61 57 69 55 53 66 65 45 53 55 53 64 58 59 56 53 38 37 36 48 47 43 46 34 31
India 42 27 45 47 53 49 45 50 39 49 41 50 47 44 51 47 43 47 43 39 45 42 42 48 29 30 40 42 46 43 26 25
China 38 33 41 46 47 44 40 45 36 39 40 47 44 38 44 40 46 38 35 48 40 44 37 32 30 39 51 39 39 46 40
In the United States and China, citizens were not asked to assess the risk from their own country.
powered by
0 – 10 11 – 20 21 – 30 31 – 40 41 – 50 51 – 60 61 – 70 71 – 80 81 – 90 91 – 100
Munich Security
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference Index
M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y I N D E X
5Figure 1.13
The change heatmap, October–November 2022, change in index score since November 2021
r
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y i s lt t s n r i c i n s
M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3
sb y en r n ic
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ly hab ore m
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nu ho b c w r o l po eq ore ars igr s a ha ing m tac ion mo an n c t I S o
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R U F E U U Ir B C P R N T M D R R D C In A R C E C D E R U A T
Germany +25 +25 +18 +18 +20 +20 +11 +7 +9 +7 +6 +4 +14 +4 +4 +4 -5 +8 +6 +0 +1 +2 +8 +1 -4 -2 -2 -6 +2 -15 -29
United Kingdom +22 +21 +20 +24 +14 +12 +7 +13 +6 +8 +10 +4 +1 +3 +4 +3 -2 +6 +4 +1 +3 -2 +6 -7 +3 +5 +4 -7 -6 -8 -18
China +22 +16 +22 +19 +14 +14 +22 +23 +20 +18 +18 +20 +14 +18 +16 +19 +17 +11 +11 +16 +12 +18 +15 +10 +10 +10 +16 +7 +15 +13
France +22 +15 +16 +6 +6 +6 +4 +1 +1 +3 +0 +3 +4 -5 +0 -2 -3 +1 +2 +2 +2 -6 +1 -3 -3 -2 -1 -11 -7 -11 -17
Italy +22 +17 +10 +12 +10 +10 +6 -3 +1 -2 +2 +3 +3 +1 +3 -1 -7 +2 +0 -1 +1 -2 -1 -1 +4 -1 +1 -6 +1 -8 -17
Canada +22 +14 +7 +12 +8 +8 +10 +4 +3 +7 +1 +7 +1 +6 +2 +3 +1 +2 -1 +2 +3 -1 +3 -3 -4 -1 -3 -3 -5 -7 -15
Japan +16 +13 +7 +3 +8 +9 +5 +3 +7 +4 -1 +3 +2 +4 +6 +1 +3 +2 -1 -2 +0 +1 +0 -1 -4 -6 -5 +0 -5 -3 -5
United States +12 +10 +4 +4 +2 +4 +1 -1 -1 +1 +3 +1 +1 +2 +0 -1 +6 +0 -2 +2 +0 -1 +1 +1 -1 +2 +1 -3 -5 -16
South Africa +15 +8 +1 -5 +2 +3 +4 -1 -5 -5 -6 +5 +0 -2 -1 -1 +2 -5 -5 -1 -2 -6 -4 +0 -7 -5 -5 +1 +0 -9 -25
Brazil +9 +4 -16 -19 -1 +1 +2 -5 -1 -4 -18 -1 -7 -2 -5 -3 -1 -2 -4 -4 -3 -9 -9 -2 -11 -13 -12 -2 -6 -14 -22
India -10 -14 -11 -11 -12 -11 -11 -10 -11 -9 -9 -12 -10 -13 -10 -11 -10 -9 -11 -11 -12 -11 -11 -10 -11 -12 -14 -9 -10 -13 -18
In the United States and China, citizens were not asked to assess the risk from their own country.
powered by
-30 – -26 -25 – -21 -20 – -16 -15 – -11 -10 – -6 -5 – -1 +0 – +5 +6 – +10 +11 – +15 +16 – +20 +21 – +25
Munich Security
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference Index
M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y I N D E X
6M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y I N D E X
Canada
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared
Russia 69 +22 63 39 1 Canadian respondents remain
Extreme weather 68 -3 67 28 the least anxious nation
and forest fires
among the G7 and “BICS.”
Destruction of natural habitats 68 -1 65 27 When asked how safe the
Economic or financial crisis world is, only 41 percent said
67 +12 66 29
in your country that they felt it is unsafe –
Climate change generally 65 -4 62 29 compared to 46 percent of US
respondents and 58 percent
Cyberattacks on your country 61 -1 65 25 of German respondents.
China 60 +3 56 37
2 Despite a significant increase
Food shortages 58 +7 60 29 in the risk posed by Russia –
Use of nuclear weapons jumping up 22 points and 16
57 +14 47 42
by an aggressor places to an index score of 69
Disinformation campaigns 57 +2 67 25 – Canadian respondents
from enemies
Use of biological weapons
remain relatively unperturbed.
55 +8 49 44 The perceived risk posed by
by an aggressor
Political polarization 55 +7 61 24
extreme weather events and
forest fires has also slightly
Use of chemical weapons and
poisons by an aggressor
54 +8 46 44 decreased (by three points to
Mass migration as a result 68), as has the risk of climate
54 +6 56 28
of war or climate change change, which is down by
Energy supply disruption 54 − 58 26 four points.
Rising inequality 53 +1 62 24 3 The perceived risk of an
A future pandemic 51 -7 54 21
economic or financial crisis
has significantly increased
Iran 51 +10 51 33 among Canadian respondents
– by 12 points since
International organized crime 51 +2 56 26
November 2021. This puts
Racism and other discrimination 49 -1 64 20 Canada in the middle of the
G7 regarding this risk, with a
Divisions amongst Western
powers and institutions
48 +2 48 26 smaller increase than in the
UK (+24 points) but a larger
Trade wars 46 +1 51 23
change than in France (+6
North Korea 46 +7 42 35 points).
Right-wing terrorism 45 +1 52 26
The coronavirus pandemic 43 -15 64 16
Radical Islamic terrorism 43 -3 50 27
Civil war or political violence 43 +3 46 27
Autonomous robots-
artificial intelligence 42 +3 45 26
Rapid change to my country’s 41 +3 42 26
culture
Breakdown of democracy
in my country 39 +4 35 28
is the index score
+12
United States 23 -5 30 27
increase of the risk
European Union 14 -3 26 22 of an economic or
financial crisis.
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference
7M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y I N D E X
France
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared
Russia 70 +22 59 28 1 In France, as in many other
Extreme weather 69 -1 62 24 places, the perceived threat
and forest fires
posed by Russia has
Climate change generally 68 -3 59 25 skyrocketed – from rank 25 to
number one. However, French
Energy supply disruption 68 − 66 25
respondents are less
Destruction of natural habitats 66 -2 63 24 concerned than the rest of
Economic of financial crisis
their European counterparts
65 +6 63 24 about the risks posed by
in your country
Radical Islamic terrorism 64 -11 65 19 nuclear, biological, and
chemical weapons, as well as
Rising inequality 64 +0 62 23 by cyberattacks.
Mass migration as a result of 63 -5 57 27
war or climate change 2 French respondents’ concerns
Cyberattacks on your country 62 +2 59 20 about radical Islamic
terrorism remain the highest
Food shortages 62 +16 60 23 of all countries surveyed, but
Use of nuclear weapons 59 +15 49 23
have fallen considerably in
by an aggressor both relative and absolute
Racism and other discrimination 57 -6 62 18 terms. In November 2021,
radical Islamic terrorism was
Iran 57 +4 52 25
seen as the most serious risk
Use of biological weapons 56 +6 49 27 facing France – it has now
by an aggressor
dropped to seventh place.
Use of chemical weapons and 56 +6 49 26
poisons by an aggressor
Civil war or political violence 56 +1 49 24
3 French respondents perceive
a lower level of absolute
Disinformation campaigns 55 +1 58 16 climate risk than their
from enemies
German or Italian counter-
Trade wars 55 +4 56 19
parts. However, in relative
A future pandemic 54 -11 58 19 terms, climate change is seen
as a highly pressing threat,
Divisions amongst Western
powers and institutions
53 +0 51 21 with extreme weather events,
climate change, and the
China 53 +1 47 29
destruction of natural habitats
International organized crime 53 +2 52 19 ranked as the second, third,
and fifth most serious risks,
The coronavirus pandemic 48 -17 66 14 respectively. Concerns about
Political polarization 48 +3 52 17 energy supply disruptions
appear to have done little
Breakdown of democracy
in my country
48 +1 42 28 to diminish perceptions of
Rapid change to my country’s climate risks.
47 -2 41 27
culture
North Korea 46 +3 39 25
Right-wing terrorism 45 -3 52 19
Autonomous robots- 42 +2 44 20
artificial intelligence is the decrease
in rank of the
-6
United States 22 -7 32 23
perceived risk of
European Union 19 -3 33 20
radical Islamic
terrorism.
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference
8M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y I N D E X
Germany
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared
Russia 78 +25 67 45 1 German respondents are
Mass migration as a result of
75 +4 70 39 extremely concerned about
war or climate change the threat posed by Russia,
Economic or financial crisis
in your country
75 +18 72 36 which receives a German risk
index score of 78 – higher than
Cyberattacks on your country 74 +6 74 36
in any other country surveyed,
Rising inequality 74 +6 71 39 bar Ukraine. The increase in
the perceived Russia risk since
Extreme weather and forest fires 73 -2 71 37 the invasion of Ukraine has
Destruction of natural habitats 73 -2 68 37 been enormous. Last year,
Russia was ranked 18th out of
Climate change generally 70 -4 64 35 32 potential risks. Now it is
first. Associated perceived
Energy supply disruption 68 − 67 39
risks, such as the use of
International organized crime 67 +0 72 31 nuclear, biological, or chemical
Use of nuclear weapons
weapons, have also increased
65 +25 51 54 significantly, each climbing 20
by an aggressor
China 63 +8 57 45
points or more on Germany’s
risk index.
Use of biological weapons
62 +20 50 54
by an aggressor
Use of chemical weapons and 2 Worries about the economy
62 +20 51 53
poisons by an aggressor are very strong, with the risk
Political polarization 62 +7 68 27 of an economic or financial
crisis having climbed 18
Radical islamic terrorism 61 -6 67 31 points to 75, and the
Disinformation campaigns
61 +8 69 29
perceived threat of energy
from enemies supply disruption is also
Trade wars 60 +14 59 37 significant at 68. Rising
inequality is rated as the fifth
Racism and other discrimination 59 +2 68 27
most serious risk facing the
Divisions amongst Western
58 +4 56 33 country.
powers and institutions
Food shortages 56 +18 59 34 3 German respondents
continue to show
Iran 56 +11 54 38
comparatively high levels of
Right-wing terrorism 52 -5 64 25 concern about climate change
– extreme weather events, the
Civil war or political violence 51 +9 53 37 destruction of natural habitats,
A future pandemic 50 -15 62 27 and climate change are all
among the ten most serious
Rapid change to my country’s
culture
47 +4 50 33 risks facing the country.
Autonomous robots- However, the perceived
45 +1 51 31
artificial intelligence severity of each of these risks
Breakdown of democracy has marginally decreased since
43 +7 36 40
in my country
November 2021.
The coronavirus pandemic 42 -29 67 20
North Korea 42 +4 43 37
is the increase in
+18
United States 31 +2 34 34
the perceived risk
European Union 24 +1 35 31 of an economic or
financial crisis.
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference
9M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y I N D E X
Italy
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared
Climate change generally 82 +4 69 36 1 Climate change is the top
Extreme weather 82 +1 73 37 risk perceived by Italian
and forest fires
respondents. In fact, the top
Destruction of natural habitats 78 -1 68 36 three risks in Italy are all
Economic or financial crisis ecological ones, with
76 +12 71 35
in your country climate change replacing
Rising inequality 67 +2 65 32 extreme weather events as
the top risk this year. There is
Russia 67 +22 60 42 a slight gender gap in the
Cyberattacks on your country 65 +0 70 26 perception of climate change,
with the index score for Italian
Mass migration as a result of
war or climate change
63 +1 61 35 women being 86, while that
for men is 77. However, the
Energy supply disruption 63 − 63 36
risk is felt evenly across
Disinformation campaigns 62 +2 67 27 Italians of different ages,
from enemies
Use of nuclear weapons
levels of education, and
60 +17 48 53 incomes.
by an aggressor
International organized crime 59 -1 65 25
2 The risk of an economic or
Use of biological weapons
by an aggressor
58 +10 47 53 financial crisis is the fourth-
Use of chemical weapons ranked risk in Italy and the
58 +10 47 52
and poisons by an aggressor first nonecological risk on
Racism and other discrimination 58 -2 64 27 the list. It has moved up two
places and 12 points since
Trade wars 58 +3 58 30 November 2021.
Divisions amongst Western 55 +3 58 28
powers and institutions 3 The risk posed by Russia has
A future pandemic 51 -8 54 21 risen 22 points, but with an
index score of 67, it still
Food shortages 51 +10 48 34
only ranks sixth among Italian
Iran 51 +6 50 35 respondents. It is the second
lowest among all G7 countries
China 50 -1 48 39 surveyed after the US (where
it has a score of 66).
Radical Islamic terrorism 48 -6 54 27
Political polarization 47 -2 54 22
Civil war or political violence 45 +1 43 33
The coronavirus pandemic 43 -17 65 15
Autonomous robots- 40 +1 46 27
artificial intelligence
Breakdown of democracy 39 -3 35 34
in my country
North Korea 39 +3 40 34
Rapid change to my country’s 35 -1 34 33
culture
Right-wing terrorism 30 -7 41 25
is the index score
gap between male
9
United States 28 +1 35 33
and female Italians
European Union 22 -1 32 27
when it comes to
climate risks.
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference
10M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y I N D E X
Japan
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared
Russia 74 +16 54 36 1 Russia is now the top threat
China 71 +0 50 33 for Japanese respondents.
It is up nine places and 16
Use of nuclear weapons
by an aggressor
67 +13 39 42 points since November 2021,
meaning that the top two
Cyberattacks on your country 67 -1 59 27
perceived threats in Japan are
North Korea 67 +3 49 33 other countries: apart from
Russia, Japanese respondents
Climate change generally 66 -4 53 25 also worry about China. Japan
Use of chemical weapons 63 +9 37 42 is the only country among the
and poisons by an aggressor G7 or “BICS” that has more
Extreme weather
and forest fires 63 -5 52 23 than one country among its
top five risks – since North
Destruction of natural habitats 63 -6 50 25
Korea is fifth on the list, it
Rising inequality 63 -1 53 30 actually has three.
Energy supply disruption 63 − 39 34 2 Among Japanese
Use of biological weapons 62 +8 38 43
respondents, the use of
by an aggressor nuclear weapons by an
Economic or financial crisis
in your country
59 +3 44 27 aggressor has also seen a big
jump in the risk ranking –
The coronavirus pandemic 58 -5 68 16
up nine places since
Food shortages 58 +7 37 32 November 2021. It now
constitutes the third biggest
A future pandemic 57 -3 51 21 perceived risk.
Disinformation campaigns 56 +2 51 27
from enemies 3 Perceptions of climate risks
Trade wars 51 +2 41 23 are down marginally for the
first time in Japan by four
International organized crime 51 -2 45 27
points, with 53 percent of
Mass migration as a result of
49 +4 41 26 Japanese respondents feeling
war or climate change
that climate change is a risk
Autonomous robots-
artificial intelligence
48 +0 44 22 that will manifest itself within
the next five years.
Iran 46 +5 34 30
Racism and other discrimination 45 +1 44 24
Civil war or political violence 45 +7 36 27
Radical Islamic terrorism 43 +0 35 31
Political polarization 42 +4 38 25
Divisions amongst Western 41 +6 31 24
powers and institutions
Breakdown of democracy
in my country 40 +3 25 27
Right-wing terrorism 38 +3 31 26
Rapid change to my country’s
culture 38 +1 26 25 is how many places
the use of nuclear
+9
United States 31 -5 22 25
weapons by an
European Union 27 -1 18 26 aggressor has
moved up in the
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference ranking of risks.
11M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y I N D E X
United Kingdom
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared
Energy supply disruption 80 − 78 34 1 Heightened fear of multiple
Russia 77 +22 68 27 risks pervades the UK. Chief
among them is an economic
Economic or financial crisis
in your country
76 +24 73 33 or financial crisis, which has
moved up 24 points since
Food shortages 69 +20 72 32
November 2021. Concern is
Climate change generally 65 +3 59 25 greatest among the oldest
members of the surveyed
Destruction of natural habitats 65 +5 62 25 population: the score is 88
Use of nuclear weapons 62 +21 54 24 among those aged over 65,
by an aggressor while it is 68 among those
Cyberattacks on your country 61 +4 67 16 under 35. However,
perceptions of the risk posed
Extreme weather and forest fires 61 +4 63 25
by an economic or financial
Rising inequality 59 +10 64 28 crisis do not differ much
between respondents with a
China 59 +6 57 28 higher (77) and respondents
Use of biological weapons 58 +14 53 25
with a lower income (79).
by an aggressor
Use of chemical weapons 2
and poisons by an aggressor
58 +12 54 26 Energy supply disruption,
Mass migration as a result of rather than Russia itself, tops
57 +3 59 29
war or climate change the list of risks that UK
Disinformation campaigns 54 +6 65 18 respondents think their
from enemies
country faces. But the UK is
International organized crime 54 +1 63 16 only second to Ukraine in
Political polarization 53 +8 60 21
terms of the perceived
imminence of the Russia
Iran 53 +7 56 23 threat. 70 percent of UK
respondents also think that
Radical Islamic terrorism 51 -7 59 16
this risk is likely to increase,
Division amongst Western 51 +4 53 21 rather than decrease, over the
powers and institutions
next few months.
A future pandemic 50 -8 56 18
3 Food shortages are another
Racism and other discrimination 49 -2 62 16
risk that has risen a long way
Breakdown of democracy 49 +13 47 29 up the ranking in the UK since
in my country
November 2021. It is up 11
Trade wars 48 +1 57 20 places and up 20 points (from
Right-wing terrorism 45 -2 56 17 49 to 69). It is a risk perceived
more keenly by women (75)
Civil war or political violence 45 +6 48 23 than men (62), on average.
Rapid change to my country’s 44 +3 46 25
culture
North Korea 44 +4 43 22
The coronavirus pandemic 41 -18 64 14
Autonomous robots- 38 +3 43 20
artificial intelligence
United States 16 -6 26 24
From is how much food
European Union 16 -7 28 19
15 to shortages have
risen in the index.
4
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference
12M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y I N D E X
United States
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared
Russia 66 +12 62 22 1 Russia has jumped to being
Economic or financial crisis 66 +4 64 27 the top risk perceived by US
in your country
respondents – up 13 places
Cyberattacks on your country 64 -2 64 19 in just one year. There is little
polarization in US views
Political polarization 64 +1 65 23
about the risk Russia
Energy supply disruption 63 − 64 28 presents. Democrats give
Russia an index score of 67,
Food shortages 61 +4 63 27 while Republicans see a
China 61 +1 60 21 somewhat greater risk, giving
it a score of 71.
Disinformation campaigns 60 +0 65 19
from enemies
Extreme weather 2 There has been no
59 +1 60 22
and forest fires corresponding increase in the
Destruction of natural habitats 59 +2 58 21 perceived risk posed by China.
Use of nuclear weapons by
It is down two places and up
58 +10 54 17 one point, with an overall
an aggressor
Breakdown of democracy 58 -1 54 28
index score of 61. There is,
in my country however, a marked partisan
Civil war or political violence 55 -1 56 23 split – just as in November
Use of biological weapons 2021. The index score among
54 +2 51 20
by an aggressor Democrats is 59, and among
Use of chemical weapons and
54 +4 52 19 Republicans 70.
poisons by an aggressor
Mass migration as a result
of war or climate change
54 +2 56 25 3 Among older age groups in
Rapid change to my country’s 54 -1 53 25
the US, political polarization
culture is a risk keenly felt. US adults
Iran 54 +1 57 17 aged 65 or older give
polarization a risk index score
A future pandemic 52 -5 54 19
of 89, making it their greatest
Climate change generally 52 -1 54 22 concern. Those aged 35 or
younger give polarization a
North Korea 52 +1 53 17 score of 48 and do not see it
as one of their top five
Racism and other discrimination 51 -1 61 20
concerns.
Rising inequality 51 +3 58 20
Radical Islamic terrorism 49 -3 55 16
Divisions amongst Western 49 +0 51 18
powers and institutions
Trade wars 49 +1 56 18
International organized crime 48 +2 53 16
Right-wing terrorism 46 +6 53 18
The coronavirus pandemic 41 -16 59 14
Autonomous robots-
artificial intelligence 41 +0 47 20
of US adults feel
62%
European Union 23 +1 36 15
the threat from
Russia is imminent.
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference
13M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y I N D E X
Ukraine
Index score Share thinking Share feeling
risk is imminent unprepared
Russia 81 95 6 1 Other than Russia itself, the
Energy supply disruption 76 92 14 top risk Ukrainians perceive is
energy supply disruption.
Economic or financial crisis
in your country
75 86 20 What is remarkable is that a
Use of chemical weapons and people whose energy grid is
72 69 37
poisons by an aggressor under almost daily kinetic
Disinformation campaigns 68 88 8 attack is not the country with
from enemies
Use of nuclear weapons
the highest risk index score
by an aggressor 64 48 48 for energy supply disruptions
Use of biological weapons 63 59 41 – it only ranks third. People in
by an aggressor South Africa and the UK are
Destruction of natural habitats 63 73 24 more worried about this risk.
The reason Ukrainians are
Cyberattacks on your country 61 85 9
relatively less worried is that
Climate change generally 59 67 29 they feel prepared for what is
Mass migration as a result
happening and many believe
56 84 19 that the worst is already
of war or climate change
Extreme weather 53 77 20
behind them. Only 45 percent
and forest fires of Ukrainian respondents
Political polarization 44 76 13 believe that the problem of
energy supply disruption is
Rising inequality 44 68 18
likely to get worse in the next
Trade wars 43 68 15 12 months compared to 72
percent in South Africa and
A future pandemic 40 65 28 70 percent in the UK. Only
Right-wing terrorism 40 56 16
14 percent of Ukrainians
feel that their country is
Iran 39 69 11 unprepared for energy supply
Divisions amongst Western disruptions – compared to
37 68 20
powers and institutions 47 percent in South Africa and
International organized crime 35 62 17 34 percent in the UK.
Food shortages 35 57 12
2 Of the nuclear, biological,
and chemical risks faced by
Racism and other discrimination 31 60 15
Ukraine, it is the threat of
The coronavirus pandemic 29 76 12 chemical weapons that is
perceived as the most
Civil war or political violence 29 51 15 pressing. The risk of chemical
Autonomous robots- 28 55 21 weapons has a risk index
artificial intelligence
score of 72 – compared to
China 19 43 30 64 for nuclear weapons and
63 for biological weapons.
Radical Islamic terrorism 18 43 17
Rapid change to my country’s 18 51 15
culture
Breakdown of democracy in 13 34 16
my country
North Korea 12 40 24
of Ukrainians
say they feel
14%
United States 1 12 47
unprepared for
European Union 1 10 43
energy supply
disruptions.
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference
14M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y I N D E X
Brazil
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared
Climate change generally 71 -11 66 33 1 The risk perception by
Extreme weather 71 -12 66 34 Brazilian respondents is down
and forest fires
almost across the board, with
Destruction of natural habitats 71 -13 64 34 only the perceived risk of
Russia and Iran and the use of
Political polarization 69 -4 68 29
nuclear or chemical weapons
Rising inequality 67 -18 63 34 having increased since
Disinformation campaigns
November 2021. Particularly
66 -2 63 32 notable are the 19, 18, and
from enemies
Economic or financial crisis 66 -19 62 35 16-point decreases seen for
in your country the risk of an economic or
Racism and other discrimination 65 -9 67 28 financial crisis, rising in
equality, and food shortages,
Civil war or political violence 64 -1 60 34
respectively. Each of these
Cyberattacks in your country 61 -4 57 35 decreases bucks international
trends of increased perceived
A future pandemic 59 -14 54 30 risks.
Breakdown of democracy 58 -5 51 34
in my country 2 Ecological risks now make up
Food shortages 57 -16 51 35 the three greatest perceived
Divisions amongst Western threats facing Brazil. While
56 -5 55 27
powers and institutions concern about each of these
Mass migration as a result 55 -2 57 27 risks has decreased in the
of war or climate change
past 12 months, it remains
International organized crime 55 -4 52 38 high in global comparison.
Use of nuclear weapons 53 +4 44 52
by an aggressor 3 While having moderately
Use of biological weapons 53 -1 43 52 increased, Brazilian
by an aggressor
Use of chemical weapons respondents’ perception of
53 +1 43 51
and poisons by an aggressor the risks posed by both Russia
Trade wars 53 -7 56 29 and energy supply disruptions
remains very low compared to
Rapid change to my country’s
culture
48 -3 49 30 other countries surveyed.
Ranking 22nd and 26th,
Russia 48 +9 45 42
respectively, out of 32
The coronavirus pandemic 47 -22 56 25 potential threats, risk
Autonomous robots- perceptions are lower only
46 -3 49 35 in India and China. Younger
artificial intelligence
China 45 -9 41 39 people are the most
concerned, with 18- to
Energy supply disruption 45 − 44 34 24-year-olds rating the
Russian risk at 55, and
Right-wing terrorism 43 -1 46 37
respondents older than 65
Radical Islamic terrorism 38 -2 39 43 rating it at 43.
Iran 37 +2 36 37
North Korea 36 -1 35 38
is the index score
decrease in the
-18
United States 34 -6 37 36
perceived threat
European Union 31 -2 36 34
posed by rising
inequality.
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference
15M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y I N D E X
China
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared
The coronavirus pandemic 51 +13 59 4 1 The coronavirus and a future
A future pandemic 48 +15 58 5 pandemic are the top two
risks perceived by Chinese
Use of nuclear weapons
by an aggressor
47 +16 43 4 respondents. With a risk index
score increase of 13 points,
Climate change generally 47 +10 48 3
Chinese respondents’ concern
Use of biological weapons 46 +14 40 5 about the coronavirus
by an aggressor
Extreme weather
pandemic is completely
and forest fires 46 +10 45 4 bucking the global trend of
United States 46 +7 46 9 an overall decline in risk
perception. The perceived risk
Cyberattacks on your country 45 +11 50 4 of a future pandemic is up by
Use of chemical weapons five places, with lower-income
44 +14 39 5
and poisons by an aggressor Chinese respondents being
Disinformation campaigns 44 +11 48 4 the most concerned (56) and
from enemies
higher-income Chinese
Destruction of natural habitats 44 +10 45 4 respondents the least
Trade wars 44 +14 46 3
concerned (46).
Economic or financial crisis 2
in your country
41 +19 40 5 While overall, China’s index
Mass migration as a result of scores remain below the
40 +18 39 6
war or climate change global average, the pattern
Divisions amongst Western
40 +16 41 5 this year is one of increasing
powers and institutions
worries among Chinese
Rising inequality 40 +18 41 6 respondents. All five of the
European Union 40 +15 41 9
top perceived risks have
increased by 10 points or
International organized crime 40 +16 42 5 more.
Right-wing terrorism 39 +17 41 6 3 The perceived risk posed by
Autonomous robots-
39 +12 44 5 the US has increased by
artificial intelligence
seven points since November
Political polarization 39 +18 40 7 2021, but it is worth noting
Rapid change to my country’s that it is still only the seventh-
39 +19 38 6
culture ranked risk among Chinese
Racism and other discrimination 38 +18 39 5 respondents – climate
change, biological weapons,
Civil war or political violence 38 +20 37 7 and extreme weather events
Energy supply disruption 38 − 33 4 produce much more concern
among those surveyed.
Radical Islamic terrorism 37 +16 39 7
Food shortages 36 +22 35 6
Breakdown of democracy
in my country 35 +23 33 8
Russia 33 +22 35 11
Iran 32 +22 34 10
is the index score
+13
North Korea 30 +20 32 11
rise in the perceived
risk of the corona-
virus pandemic.
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference
16M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y I N D E X
India
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared
Climate change generally 53 -11 53 12 1 Climate change has moved to
China 51 -11 49 10 the top of the risk list in India,
up one place since November
Use of nuclear weapons
by an aggressor
50 -14 55 11 2021. It is a risk that is most
pronounced among higher-
Cyberattacks on your country 50 -11 52 11
income Indian respondents,
Destruction of natural habitats 49 -12 49 14 with an index score of 61,
compared to only 47 among
Political polarization 49 -9 52 14 lower-income respondents.
Radical Islamic terrorism 48 -9 50 13
2 The risk that China poses has
Use of biological weapons
by an aggressor
47 -12 50 13 moved up to second place,
Use of chemical weapons with 49 percent of Indian
47 -11 47 15
and poisons by an aggressor respondents feeling that the
Disinformation campaigns 47 -9 49 11 threat posed by China is
from enemies
Extreme weather
imminent and likely to
47 -14 48 11 manifest itself in the next
and forest fires
Right-wing terrorism 46 -10 50 12
five years.
A future pandemic 45 -13 46 13 3 The use of nuclear weapons
by an aggressor is down to
Rising inequality 45 -9 47 14
third place in the ranking of
Economic or financial crisis 45 -11 48 12 risks among the Indians
in your country
surveyed. Cyberattacks are
Racism and other
discrimination
44 -11 49 13 ranked fourth. The largest fall
Autonomous robots- 43 -12 49 12
in index scores is recorded for
artificial intelligence the coronavirus pandemic,
Civil war or political violence 43 -11 49 11 which is down 13 places and
now ranked as the 20th most
International organized crime 43 -11 46 9
worrying risk for Indian
The coronavirus pandemic 42 -18 52 10 respondents.
Divisions amongst Western 42 -10 48 11
powers and institutions
Trade wars 42 -10 45 13
Energy supply disruption 42 − 45 11
Mass migration as a result 41 -13 42 14
of war or climate change
Rapid change to my country’s 40 -11 42 12
culture
Breakdown of democracy 39 -10 40 16
in my country
Food shortages 39 -11 43 12
North Korea 30 -12 35 11
Iran 29 -11 33 13
Russia 27 -10 36 13
is the decrease
in rank of the
-13
United States 26 -10 32 11
perceived risk of
European Union 25 -10 32 13 the coronavirus
pandemic.
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference
17M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y I N D E X
South Africa
Index score Change in Share thinking Share feeling
index score risk is imminent unprepared
Energy supply disruption 91 − 75 47 1 Among South African
Economic or financial crisis 81 -5 69 38 respondents, energy supply
in your country
disruptions receive the
Food shortages 77 +1 68 37 highest index score of any risk
in any G7 or “BICS” country
Rising inequality 76 -6 68 36
surveyed. This is due to 83
Racism and other discrimination 74 -6 69 29 percent of South Africans
saying that the consequences
Climate change generally 72 -7 66 31 would be very severe, and 47
Extreme weather and 70 -5 67 30 percent saying that they feel
forest fires unprepared for it. 72 percent
Destruction of natural habitats 70 -5 64 29 of South African respondents
think that energy supply
Political polarization 70 -5 65 30
disruptions will get worse
Breakdown of democracy 69 -1 59 35 rather than better over the
in my country
next year.
Civil war or political violence 68 -5 60 36
Cyberattacks on 66 -5 62 30
2 South African respondents
your country are overall the most likely to
International organized crime 65 -1 59 35 be concerned about food
shortages, with 66 percent
A future pandemic 61 -9 58 26
feeling that it is a significant
Mass migration as a result 61 -2 53 37 risk overall. This does not,
of war or climate change
however, mark a change from
Disinformation campaigns
from enemies
60 -5 59 29 last year. South Africa’s index
Rapid change to my country’s 59 -1 54 31
score for food shortages is up
culture by one point to 77, and 8
Divisions amongst Western 58 -1 50 34 points away from that of any
powers and institutions
other country surveyed.
Russia 57 +15 47 46
Use of nuclear weapons 56 +8 45 49 3 South Africa also has the
by an aggressor
highest index score among all
Use of chemical weapons
by an aggressor
56 +3 41 48 the countries surveyed for the
Use of biological weapons perceived risk of an economic
54 +2 41 48
by an aggressor or financial crisis. The risk of
Trade wars 54 +0 51 33 an economic or financial crisis
was already the top risk
China 54 -4 47 43 among South African
The coronavirus pandemic 49 -25 64 19 respondents in November
2021. In the past year, the G7
Autonomous robots-
artificial intelligence
47 -2 45 35 and “BICS” countries have been
playing catch-up with South
Right-wing terrorism 45 +2 43 34
Africa.
Radical Islamic terrorism 42 +1 41 38
United States 42 +0 39 40
Iran 39 +4 40 41 of South African
respondents say
47%
North Korea 39 +5 35 43
that they are
European Union 38 +0 36 39 unprepared for
energy supply
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference disruptions.
18Figure 1.14
Citizens’ perceptions of other countries, share saying country is an ally minus share saying country is a threat,
October–November 2022, percent
M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3
ca a
re
ny lia
da e d d n Afr i a
i n a va Ko ry s
n a rma stra nce ly
p a n ain an lan de th rg a zil oni ldo th ia
r l e u o i w a t u n ga key ina laru ssia
K S a e
U U C G A F I u ra ta a
J
k o in w o e
U P F S S G T B E M S I a r s o o nd u ur h e u
H T C B R
Ukraine 85 86 82 74 66 77 69 58 90 75 77 12 62 39 23 78 60 20 -2 -13 61 -29 -85 -97
China 35 23 35 44 32 41 45 25 36 40 42 40 50 46 47 48 44 34 34 44 46 41 38
UK 60 62 51 64 55 55 34 64 55 56 61 39 28 30 25 39 27 21 24 35 17 -46 -13 -60
US 48 51 40 48 44 43 37 40 42 44 44 25 18 36 27 21 18 32 22 26 13 -39 4 -45
Canada 55 55 46 54 54 46 38 47 43 48 51 27 18 36 24 23 16 32 19 29 14 -38 -10 -51
India 39 34 30 33 34 34 33 35 25 29 27 33 30 25 26 31 27 26 28 28 14 -1 29 34
Japan 44 50 40 38 43 36 37 31 29 30 33 13 20 51 20 18 11 -6 19 18 25 -51 -8 -54
Germany 42 35 46 39 53 46 33 32 36 49 52 14 14 19 7 40 17 17 0 17 -13 -41 -35 -51
France 47 44 50 49 40 49 31 42 38 47 47 20 18 15 14 28 18 16 9 21 -3 -25 -21 -41
Italy 42 43 40 47 36 51 30 35 33 42 44 16 15 13 17 28 20 9 2 17 -5 -27 -26 -50
South Africa 31 32 24 24 26 23 16 18 18 20 17 20 11 14 24 11 10 15 25 15 19 17 10 5
Brazil 28 44 27 24 21 21 28 24 19 17 19 12 20 14 10 9 2 15 15 12 9 8 -2 -2
-100 – -61 -60 – -51 -50 – -41 -40 – -31 -30 – -21 -20 – -11 -10 – -1 0 – 10 11 – 20 21 – 30 31 – 40 41 – 50 51 – 60 61 – 70 71 – 80 81 – 90
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, commissioned by the Munich Security Conference
powered by
Munich Security
Index
M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y I N D E X
19M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y I N D E X
Figure 1.15
Perceptions of other countries as threats or allies,
change between November 2021 and October–November 2022,
group average
Perception among Perception among
Global perception G7 countries “BICS” countries
Ukraine +22 Ukraine +29 Ukraine +10
Poland +11 Poland +12 Estonia +10
Estonia +8 UK +8 US +9
US +7 Estonia +7 Poland +9
UK +7 Australia +7 Turkey +7
Turkey +7 Turkey +7 South Africa +7
Australia +6 US +6 Hungary +7
Finland +6 Taiwan +6 China +6
Japan +5 Finland +6 UK +6
Germany +5 Germany +5 South Korea +6
South Korea +5 Japan +5 Finland +6
Italy +5 Italy +5 Japan +6
Taiwan +5 South Korea +5 Australia +5
Canada +4 Canada +5 France +5
Hungary +4 Hungary +3 Belarus +5
Brazil +2 Brazil +1 Germany +5
South Africa +2 South Africa +0 Italy +5
India +0 India -4 Canada +4
Belarus -4 Belarus -9 Brazil +4
China -6 China -12 Taiwan +1
Russia -20 Russia -30 Russia -3
Perceived as a greater Perceived as a greater
threat than in Nov. 2021 ally than in Nov. 2021
powered by
-30 – -21 -20 – -11 -10 – -1 +0 – +10 +11 – +20 +21 – +30
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, Munich Security
commissioned by the Munich Security Conference Index
20M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 S P OT L I G H T U K R A I N E
Spotlight Ukraine
The results of running the Munich Security Index in Ukraine are evidence
of Ukrainian unity, resilience, and bullishness in face of Russian aggression.
Astonishingly, only six percent of Ukrainians feel unprepared to take on
Russia’s invasion, and even during a winter marked by blackouts and shortages
they feel more prepared to face the risk of energy supply disruption than any
G7 public. Ukraine’s Western orientation is also unequivocal. The vast
majority of Ukrainians want to live in a world shaped by European and, to a
lesser extent, US rules (Figure 1.16). Russian and Chinese visions of order
have virtually no purchase in Ukraine.
In striking contrast to some Western policy-makers, whose concerns about
further military escalation appear to hamstring more determined support,
Ukrainians have not been intimidated by Russian threats. As devastating
as the use of a tactical nuclear weapon against a city or on the battlefield
would be, an overwhelming majority of Ukrainians say they would still refuse
to surrender if it occurred (Figure 1.17). Moreover, nothing short of a complete
Russian withdrawal from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, suffices
for most Ukrainians as acceptable conditions for a ceasefire (Figure 1.18).
Even a Russian withdrawal from previously occupied areas would be
unacceptable for the majority of Ukrainians if it does not also include Crimea.
Premature peace negotiations, calls for which are particularly vocal in
some Western capitals, would thus likely meet fierce resistance among the
Ukrainian population.
The transatlantic partners also need to start planning for how to ensure
Ukraine’s long-term security from Russian attacks. Ukrainian citizens are
deeply aware of the lasting threat Putin’s Russia poses and overwhelmingly
believe that they require Western security guarantees (Figure 1.19). What
these could look like is still unclear. But most Ukrainians believe that they
will need permanent arms supplies from the West. A clear majority also
fears that outside of NATO, Ukraine will never be secure, which is corroborated
by the fact that Ukrainians place much less faith in the EU to protect them
than in NATO.
These patterns are also reflected in Ukrainians’ evaluation of other countries’
responses to the war (Figure 1.20). Those polled judge all G7 countries, as well
as Turkey, unequivocally positively. But there are meaningful differences
among them – unsurprising given the variation in material support provided,
21M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 S P OT L I G H T U K R A I N E
messaging, and urgency with which countries responded to the war. The
UK tops the ranking, closely followed by the US, and Canada, while Western
European states trail the Anglophone countries by around 30 percentage
points. Meanwhile, Ukrainians perceive China and India to have responded
particularly badly, but all actors from the “Global South” score negatively in
the ranking.
Figure 1.16
Ukrainian citizens’ views on whose rules they would prefer to live by,
November 2022, percent
Would you rather live in Europe US Economically developing countries
a world with international China Russia Don’t know/refusal
rules shaped mostly
by…? 12
63
2
1
22
powered by
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, Munich Security
commissioned by the Munich Security Conference Index
22M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 S P OT L I G H T U K R A I N E
Figure 1.17
Ukrainians evaluating whether they should carry on fighting or
surrender in different scenarios, November 2022, percent
Surrender Don’t know/refusal Carry on fighting
Regular conventional bombing 3 2 95
of Ukrainian cities by Russia
Use of a tactical nuclear weapon 4 4 91
over the Black Sea by Russia
Use of a tactical nuclear weapon 5 6 89
on the battlefield by Russia
Use of a tactical nuclear weapon 6 6 89
against a Ukrainian city by Russia
Figure 1.18
Ukrainian citizens’ views on acceptable ceasefire terms,
November 2022, percent
Unacceptable Neither/don’t know Acceptable
Russia removes all troops from 2 5 93
Ukraine, including Crimea
Russia removes all troops from 80 9 11
Ukraine, except from Crimea
Russia withdraws to the demarcation 85 8 7
line of February 24, 2022
Russia keeps troops in the 97 21
occupied territories
23M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 S P OT L I G H T U K R A I N E
Figure 1.19
Ukrainian citizens’ views on security arrangements after the war,
November 2022, percent
Disagree Neither/don’t know Agree
We will never be secure as long 6 11 83
as Putin sits in the Kremlin
We will never be secure without 8 17 75
Western security guarantees
We will never be secure without 6 22 72
permanent arms supplies by the West
We will never be secure 13 22 65
outside of NATO
We trust the US/NATO more than the 5 31 63
EU to help us defend against Russia
Figure 1.20
Ukrainian evaluation of the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
of different countries and organizations, share saying the country or
organization has “done well” minus share saying it has “done badly,”
November 2022, percent
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S o al S
EU any
Br Af
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h
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b
ke
a
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AT
do
an
ly
lo
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K
S
G7
Ch
Ge
Ca
I ta
Tu
“G
Ja
Fr
In
In
U
N
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U
-37 -27 -15 -13 -7 -2 -1 +29 +32 +36 +39 +43 +44 +47 +61 +72 +76 +77
Perceived as done badly Perceived as done well
-40 – -31 -30 – -21 -20 – -11 -10 – -1 +21 – +30 +31 – +40 +41 – +50 +61 – +70 +71 – +80
powered by
Data and illustration: Kekst CNC, Munich Security
commissioned by the Munich Security Conference Index
24M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 L I ST O F F I G U R ES
List of Figures
Possible deviations from a total of 100 percent in visualized data result from rounding.
Munich Security Index 2023
All illustrations and data in this section are based on the survey conducted by Kekst
CNC. For the detailed method underpinning the index, see pages 40-41.
Explaining the Index
1. “Energy supply disruption” was not yet included in previous editions of the index. The
Munich Security Index 2021 and the Munich Security Index 2022 thus covered 31 risks.
2. The answer scale is reversed to account for the natural direction of time. More
imminent being sooner is closer on our answer scale and less imminent being later is
further away on our answer scale, but we in fact want to give a higher score to risks
that are more imminent – hence we reverse.
3. The answer scale is reversed because higher answer scores for each of the five inputs
should be associated with more serious risk. Without rescaling, it is exactly the reverse:
high answer scores are associated with high risk preparedness and thus with less
serious risk.
1.14 Citizens’ perceptions of other countries, share saying country is an ally minus share
saying country is a threat, October–November 2022, percent
Data and illustration provided to the Munich Security Conference by Kekst CNC.
In answer to the question “For each country/jurisdiction below, please say whether
you think they pose a threat or are an ally to your country or neither [0-10, where
0 is ‘threat,’ 5 is neither and 10 is ‘ally’].” The scores run from a potential -100
(if 100 percent of a population said that x was a threat) to +100 (if 100 percent of a
population said that x was an ally).
1.15 Perceptions of other countries as threats or allies, change between November 2021 and
October–November 2022, group average
Data and illustration provided to the Munich Security Conference by Kekst CNC.
In answer to the question “For each country/jurisdiction below, please say whether
you think they pose a threat or are an ally to your country or neither [0-10, where 0 is
‘threat,’ 5 is neither and 10 is ‘ally’].” “Global” comprises all 12 countries surveyed,
except Ukraine, which was not polled in the last round of the index. “G7” comprises
Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US. “BICS” comprises Brazil,
India, China, and South Africa. Fieldwork for the previous Munich Security Index,
published in the Munich Security Report 2022 and used as a reference point here, took
place in November 2021.
25M U N I C H S ECU R I T Y R E P O RT 2 0 2 3 L I ST O F F I G U R ES
Spotlight Ukraine
1.16 Ukrainian citizens’ views on whose rules they would prefer to live by, November 2022,
percent
Data and illustration provided to the Munich Security Conference by Kekst CNC.
In answer to the question “Would you rather live in a world with international rules
shaped mostly by…?” respondents were given the following options: “Europe,” “US,”
“economically developing countries, such as countries in Africa (often known as the
‘Global South’),” “China,” “Russia,” and “don’t know.”
1.17 Ukrainians evaluating whether they should carry on fighting or surrender in different
scenarios, November 2022, percent
Data and illustration provided to the Munich Security Conference by Kekst CNC.
In answer to the question “In the following circumstances, do you think Ukraine
should carry on fighting or surrender?” respondents were given the following options:
“carry on fighting,” “surrender,” and “don’t know.”
1.18 Ukrainian citizens’ views on acceptable ceasefire terms, November 2022, percent
Data and illustration provided to the Munich Security Conference by Kekst CNC.
In answer to the question “How acceptable would the following terms be for a ceasefire
between Ukraine and Russia?” respondents were given the following options:
“completely acceptable,” “somewhat acceptable,” “neither acceptable nor unacceptable,”
“somewhat unacceptable,” “completely unacceptable,” and “don’t know.” Figures shown
here combine the net responses for acceptable and unacceptable, with the gray area
representing the rest.
1.19 Ukrainian citizens’ views on security arrangements after the war, November 2022,
percent
Data and illustration provided to the Munich Security Conference by Kekst CNC.
In answer to the question “Do you agree or disagree with the following ...?” respondents
were given the following options: “strongly agree,” “tend to agree,” “neither agree nor
disagree,” “tend to disagree,” “strongly disagree,” and “don’t know.” Figures shown here
combine the net responses agreeing and disagreeing, with the gray area representing the rest.
1.20 Ukrainian evaluation of the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine of different
countries and organizations, share saying the country or organization has “done well”
minus share saying it has “done badly,” November 2022, percent
Data and illustration provided to the Munich Security Conference by Kekst CNC.
In answer to the question “Thinking about the response to Russia invading Ukraine how
do you think the following countries and organizations have done in their response
to Russia?” respondents were given the options “very well,” “quite well,” “neither well
nor badly,” “quite badly,” “very badly,” and “don’t know.” Figures shown are the net of
the total percentage for “well” minus the total percentage for “badly.”
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