NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE - DECEMBER 2019 - Lemon & Lime Interiors
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DECEMBER 2019 N AT I O N A L H O U S I N G M A R K E T U P D AT E
KEY STATS
E N G L A ND A N D WAL ES
£673,000 £990,548 -2.71%
£581 £47.1bn 14,534
LATEST DATA QUARTERLY CHANGE ANNUAL CHANGE
MORTGAGE APPROVALS 64,602 -1.4% -3.3%
RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS 103,680 3.1% 4.3%
GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING £21.8 bn 1.8% -4.0%
NEW HOME STARTS (QT) 32,180 12.2% -8.6%
NEW HOME COMPLETIONS (QT) 32,840 -16.2% 14.6%
2 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONALMARKET OVERVIEW
2 0C1H8R I-S TTH
M EA SYECAORU N
THT A
DTO W
WANS
Millions across
Although the country
the festive season isstart
upontheus,countdown
there is littletoseasonal
Christmas by and
cheer opening
‘goodtheir advent
will to all’
doors each
evident day,
across thebut who knows
political arena. which
Brexit party will be
continues behind thethedoor
to dominate of number
headlines 10
as all eyes
Downing
await Street.
the final Time isWhatever
outcome. ticking to the
the conclusion,
first December there election
are sure in
tonearly a century.for
be implications The
housingand
sterling market has remained
the economy. remarkably
As 2018 draws toresilient
a close,inarea year
we anythatcloser
has been dominated
to predicting what by
Brexit
we canand annual
expect price growth remains in positive territory across much of the country.
in 2019?
DIVIDED OR IN SYNC across much of the country remains positive, with prices across
A poll by You Gov indicates 14% of the electorate consider northern regions and Wales over 2% higher year-on-year.
housing a ‘top OF
GLIMMERS 3 priority’ in this year’s
SEASONAL election, 3% fewer than
CHEER There
Acrossarethe
alsoUK signs thatmarkets,
prime London the prices have stabilised,
average latest
price of property
in 2017. Brexit
Throughout 2018(68%)
salesand healthcare
volumes across(40%) dominate
the housing voters’
market data showing month-on-month price growth across both
is down a fraction on a year ago. However, across many
have struggled, thanks to the backdrop of lower buyer main
priorities as they did two years ago. However, while the inner and2018
outerhas London. Zoopla report fewer thanyear
a quarter
assets not proved momentous. In the to the
end of November the average price of gold has fallen by
political parties
demand and lowalllevels
offerofdifferent
consumer solutions to the However,
confidence. current Brexit (23%) of London postcodes registered negative property price
over 1%, the stock market (FTSE 100) by 6%, while the S&P
latest data from the Bank of England indicates mortgageacross
stalemate there are significant threads of commonality growth in October, down from 82% a year ago and the lowest
Global Luxury Index is 5.5% lower than a year ago, despite
their manifestos
approvals in Octoberin terms
wereof4% housing
higherpolicy.
than aIncreasing
year ago, house
while coverage of price falls since May 2017.
fine wines and classic cars boasting small positive returns.
building
the total and
valuethe ofprovision
lending hitofitsgenuinely affordable
highest monthly housing,
figure since Many commentators report evidence of pent-up demand
whatever
the thetransactions
surge in definition of ‘affordable’
prior may be, is inherent
to the introduction of the THE PRIME MARKETS
for higher priced properties, with prospective vendors
in them all,3%
additional as SDLT
is the levy
desire to improve
in March 2016.the environmental
More sales took waiting for more clarity before they commit to their
efficiency
place of the
across the UKhomes we live in.
in October Boosting
than home ownership
in any month since July Properties
purchase.priced over £1 million continue to experience
is mentioned,
2017, whether data
while Rightmove through showsreforming Help-to-Buy
properties in 2018 toor price reductions prior to sale, with Rightmove reporting large
schemes
date haveoffering
taken andiscounts
average of for61
local orfrom
days first-time buyers,
the start of with detached family homes (4+ beds) are 1.2% less expensive than
all parties also
marketing advocating
to being an additional property
sold-subject-to-contract, surcharge for
one day A CRYSTAL
a year ago. In sevenBALL regions of the UK the average price of
purchases
shorter than made by non-UK
last year and an residents.
improvement Reforms to 65
on the thedays
private a prime propertyallis current
Unsurprisingly less thanforecasts
1% lower forthan
2019 a year ago, with
are issued with
rental sector
witnessed in terms of deposits, no-fault evictions
in 2016. significant
a caveatdeals
relatingavailable across
to a deal being London,
brokered where the average
between the UK
and national licensing also receive manifesto pledges.
Despite the rise in the UK base rate in the summer,
price
andofthea prime
EU. The property
Governor has of fallen
theby over
Bank of 6%. As toMark
England, 2020,
mortgage interest rates remain low. UK Finance report that forecasts
Carney,are hasbased on a his
reiterated series of assumptions
forecast that in the relating
event oftoa our no-
ALL
at 2.23%I WANT
the currentFOR CHRISTMAS
average IS… CERTAINTY
mortgage interest rate is lower relationship
deal Brexitwith the Europe.
economy Anmay average
fall byofover
independent
8% and averageforecasts
than the rate both five and ten years ago, 3.14% and 6.11% predicts
house price
pricesgrowth
by up toacross
30%.the UK willforecasts
Current be 1.4%from during the2020,
Rightmove report
respectively. the for
Adjusting impending
inflation,election
wages have and ongoing
risen over Brexit while
Officethe for
forecasts
Budgetfor London varypoint
Responsibility fromtonegative
employment growth levels
uncertainty led to a 15% year-on-year
the past year, positive news for household finances.fall in new sellers in (-3%) to growth
continuing in the
to rise regionalong
in 2019, of 1%. Compound
with growth while
average earnings, over
October, as consumers ‘wait and see’ and mortgage approvals the next five years (2020–2024) is predicted to be in the 2.0%
inflation is predicted to edge back to the government’ s
were 3.3% lower year-on year. Against the backdrop of a fall region of This
target. 15% may for the
wellUK, northern
require regions
a gradual riseset
in to outperform
interest rates,
SENSE AND SENSIBILITY
in instructions and low buyer demand, sales volumes have their southern counterparts. Interest rates are anticipatedtoto
although the current view is that the base rate will rise
remainedpricing
Sensible underremains
100,000crucialper month throughout
to achieving a sale.the
Theyear. risejust
to 1.5
1% –over1.75% thebycourse
2021.of 2020, and possibly up to 2% by
Lower price
average askingbrackets
price ofand youngerfell
a property buyers
by 1.7%are currently
in November, fuelling 2024, while
Across theinflation
housinglooks
market,set to remain
as per 2018, around
many 1.9%, slightly
the market, with sales prices at least level to asking prices at
the largest November fall since 2012 according to below the government’s
commentators expect 2% the target.
wider UK Rental pricetogrowth
market outperformmay
the presentwhile
Rightmove, time annual
for properties listedgrowth
house price at or below £500,000
has moderated well outstripAn
London. property
averageprices over the coming
of independent forecasts year, with price
predicts
according to the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors.
throughout the year. Annual house price growth across the average
growth rents
acrossacross
the the UK predicted
UK will be 2.2% during to rise2019.by between
In
Consumer
UK andtoeconomic
in the year September confidence
was 3.5%, remains subdued,
down from 4.6% a 12% and 15% over the next five years.
comparison, those commentating on the London market 2020 is set to be
certainty
year and not sprouts
ago, according undoubtedly
to the official UK Housethe craving for this
Price Index. another interesting year for the property
anticipate 2019 may well prove another year of falling market.
Christmas.
Average Despite
prices across theLondon
currentremain
environment, price than
slightly lower growth a prices. Compound growth across the UK is anticipated to
year ago, the capital currently feeling the brunt of Brexit be in the region of 11% – 14% over the next five years.
uncertainty. Forecasts for London vary widely, from less than 5% to over
10%. Only time will tell which trajectory is more likely to be
true.
PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 3REGIONAL
P R E M I U M M A R K E T S : TOP 5 %
£350,000
£451,072
£414,000
–1.1%
£569,698 £237
–0.3% £404,000
£301 £537,201
–0.4%
£285
£469,000
£613,997
£433,000
–0.9%
£313 £558,263
–0.0%
£275
£376,000
£477,441
–1.7% £681,000
£262 £914,065
–0.9%
£457
£586,000
£790,000 £1,400,000
£790,141
£1,097,435 £2,260,014
–0.2%
–0.0% –6.3%
£389
£482 £1,176
4 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONALNATIONAL
P R E M I U M M A R K E T S : TOP 5 %
PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE ENGLAND & WALES
PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD
The premium price threshold is 0%
the value over which the top 5%
of property sales occur. The chart -0.5%
shows a rolling 12 month change -1%
in the average price paid for
premium properties compared -1.5%
to the previous 12 month.
-2%
-2.5%
-3%
-3.5%
NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT
2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE ENGLAND & WALES
LAST 12 MONTHS, PROPERTIES
SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM
PRICE THRESHOLD £1,200
An individual premium price £1078
threshold is calculated for each £900
property type based on sold
prices in the last 12 months. The
chart shows the average price paid £600
£634
per square foot for all of these £581
premium properties. £496 £485
£300
0
FLAT/APARTMENT TERRACED SEMI-DETACHED DETACHED ALL PROPERTY
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 5TRANSACTIONS
A N D K EY P R I C E P O I N T S
ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS ENGLAND & WALES All proper ty £1m+
THE COUNTRY
Chart shows a rolling 12 month 0%
change in transactions compared
to the previous 12 month period -2.5%
for all properties and those
priced at £1m or over. -5%
-7.5%
-10%
-12.5%
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
£229,311 £214,374 £178,636
£673,000 £700,058 £549,997
£990,548 £1,098,866 £855,900
£215,305 £349,757 £232,591
£537,137 £854,353 £667,537
£738,544 £1,223,357 £969,134
6 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONALNATIONAL
MA IN S TR E AM MAR K E T
ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS ENGLAND & WALES
THE REGION
Rolling 12 month change in 2.5%
the average price paid for all
properties sold compared to the
2%
previous 12 month period.
1.5%
1%
0.5%
0%
NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT
2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER ENGLAND & WALES
THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF
ALL PROPERTY SALES
£400
Average price paid per square
foot for all property transactions.
£300 £330
£273
£245
£200 £231
£202
£100
0
FLAT/APARTMENT TERRACED SEMI-DETACHED DETACHED ALL PROPERTY
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 7AVAILABILITY
A N D TI M E TO S E L L
AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS NATIONAL
TO SELL
Average number of days 100
from when a property is first
marketed on Rightmove to 80 77
when the estate agent marks it 72 70 71
67 64
as “sold subject to contract”. 60
65
61 59 60 61 61
65 63 62 62 62 62 64
56 56 57
40
20
0
JAN FEB MARAPR MAY JUN JUL AUGSEP OCTNOVDEC JAN FEB MARAPR MAY JUNEJULY AUGSEP OCT
2018201820182018 20182018201820182018 2018201820182019 20192019201920192019 2019201920192019
Source: Rightmove
PROPERTIES AVAILABLE TO NATIONAL
BUY PER AGENT
Average stock per agent 60
calculated by the average
number of properties an agent 50
has on Rightmove each day
across the month. 40
30
20
10
0
JAN FEB MARAPR MAY JUN JUL AUGSEP OCTNOVDEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNEJULY AUGSEP OCT
20182018 20182018 201820182018 20182018 20182018 20182019 20192019 201920192019 20192019 20192019
Source: Rightmove
T: +44 (0)207 079 1515
E: parklane@fineandcountry.com
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Repor t edited by Inform user and published on 02-12-2019.
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