North American Seasonal Fire Assessment and Outlook

North American Seasonal Fire Assessment and Outlook
           National Interagency Fire Center ● Natural Resources Canada ● Servicio Meteorológico Nacional
               United States                          Canada                             Mexico

                  Outlook Period November 2021 through January 2022
                                          Issued 12 November 2021

Executive Summary

Strong Pacific storms continued moving onto the Pacific coast of British Columbia, a normal event in
the fall. Little precipitation has made it across the mountain ranges into the Prairies where generally dry
conditions and mild temperatures have continued, although extreme southwestern Alberta and patches
of southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba have recorded above normal precipitation over the past
month. Precipitation is generally light in the Prairies this time of year so even above normal amounts do
not help much to alleviate drought. Significant precipitation amounts have also fallen across Ontario,
Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. Although grass/brush fire potential is still possible in southern Prairie
regions, an expected turn towards cooler and moister conditions later in November should limit the
potential for fire activity.

Fire activity continued to moderate in October across the West with significant fire activity ending in all
areas except California. The national preparedness level began the month at three but dropped to two
on October 12 and one on October 21. Nearly 90% of the West remains in drought with more than half
of the West in the highest two categories of drought. Above average precipitation was observed across
much of the West Coast and the Great Basin into the Northern Plains. However, precipitation was below
normal for the Southwest, central and southern High Plains, and north-central Montana. Much of the
West observed near to below average temperatures except across Montana where temperatures were
slightly above normal. Much of the eastern US from the Plains to the East Coast observed above normal
temperatures for October.

Climate outlooks indicate warmer than normal conditions are likely for much of CONUS into winter
except for the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies and northern Plains which are forecast to be near

Monthly fire outlook for North America for October 2021 (left), November 2021 (middle), and December 2021
(right). Red shading indicates areas where conditions would favor increased fire activity. Green shading indicates
areas where conditions would favor decreased fire activity. Click on each image to see larger versions.

to below normal. Below normal precipitation is forecast for the southern half of the West, the southern
Plains, and the southeast US. Portions of the Hawai’ian Islands are likely to have above normal
significant fire potential through November. Portions of the southeast US coast are also forecast to have
above normal potential from November through January with above normal fire potential developing
across portions of the southern Plains in January.

Forest fire activity continued at low levels across Mexico, with the only slightly significant activity
observed in northern Baja California, Coahuila, and Mexico City but at normal levels. Rainfall for the
months of September and October has been below normal, which has resulted in an increase of
abnormally dry areas across Mexico. These areas could see continued deterioration into drought during
the upcoming dry season. While temperatures are forecast to be above normal and precipitation below
normal across Mexico November through January, fire activity is still expected to be near normal across
Mexico. However, in January, above normal fire potential is forecast for northeast Chihuahua and
northern Coahuila with the possibility of above normal fire potential beginning in those areas in the latter
half of December.

Critical Factors The critical factors influencing significant fire potential for this outlook period are:

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): La Niña conditions are present with below average sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) over much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The Climate Predicter Center (CPC)
forecasts La Niña to continue this winter, which will likely have a major
impact on this winter’s weather and climate. Other teleconnection
patterns, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation may still have roles in
shaping the weather and climate patterns, but La Niña will be the
dominant pattern.

Drought: Drought conditions in Canada have changed little in the past
month, although intensification has occurred in eastern Alberta with
improvement in western British Columbia and along the Manitoba/US
border. Widespread drought continues across western featuring a
broad area of abnormally dry to moderate drought, with numerous
embedded patches of severe to extreme drought. Areas of exceptional
drought continue in southern British Columbia, west-central
Saskatchewan, and southern Manitoba, while patches in eastern
Alberta have intensified into exceptional drought. An area of
abnormally extends northward from the western drought region into
the southern Mackenzie Mountains along the Yukon/Northwest
Territories border. Abnormally dry conditions also exist in a small patch
surrounding Yellowknife, with larger areas on the east side of Great
Bear Lake and the Mackenzie River mouth. Patchy abnormally dry
areas continue in Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces.

Nearly 90% of the West remains in drought with almost half the region
in extreme to exceptional drought. Slight improvement of drought
conditions occurred in portions of the Northwest, Nevada, and the
western Great Lakes, but drought intensified over portions of central
Montana and the High Plains of eastern Colorado, western Nebraska,
and western Kansas. Temperatures were above normal in September
from the Front Range of the Rockies to the East Coast, but were below         Top: Canadian Drought Monitor for
normal along the West Coast, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona.                       31 October (from Agriculture and
Precipitation was well above average from northern and central                Agri-Food Canada). Middle: United
California through northern Nevada, southern Idaho, and Wyoming into          States Drought Monitor for 9
                                                                              November (from US National
the Dakotas where slight improvement in drought conditions occurred.          Center       for     Environmental
Above normal precipitation was also noted in portions of the Northwest,       Information). Bottom: Mexican
southern Great Lakes, Missouri, and Southeast. Much of Arizona, New           Drought Monitor for 31 October
Mexico, eastern Colorado, western Nebraska, western Kansas, and               (from            CONAGUA-Servicio
                                                                              Meteorológico Nacional).

Texas observed below normal precipitation with drought intensification. Below normal precipitation also
occurred in central Montana, the northern Great Lakes, northern New England and much of the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeast coastal plains.

For the first half of October, above average rainfall was observed across the northern and southern
extremes of Baja California, north-central and west-central regions of Mexico, as well as the states of
Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, northern Oaxaca, and southern Veracruz. The rainfall was from passing
troughs as well as the influence of Hurricane Pamela. The rain resulted in a slight decrease in
abnormally dry conditions in southern Veracruz and a decrease in moderate to severe drought across
portions of Baja California and Durango. However, below normal rainfall occurred across portions of
northern and southern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, as well as the central portions of Sinaloa and
Sonora. As a result, abnormally dry conditions increased in Sonora, Chihuahua, Tamaulipas, and the
Yucatan Peninsula with moderate drought also emerging in Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas.

Fire Season Status: Fire activity normally is minimal in most of Canada by October, although large
and deep-burning fires may smolder into or over the winter. Although some late-season forest fire
activity continued in east-central Saskatchewan into mid-October, this area has received precipitation
and activity has subsided. New starts are minimal in number and size, with no noteworthy fires active
at this time.

Large fire activity declined during October with few large fires remaining on the landscape at the end of
the month, most of those in California. Year-to-date fire statistics show 49,021 fires have burned a total
of 2,644,728 hectares (6,535,256 acres) as of November 12. The year-to-date acres burned is about
93% of the 10-year average while the number of fires is 94% of the 10-year average.

So far this year, 6,777 forest fires have been registered in 32 states across Mexico, affecting an area
of 617,142 hectares. Of this area, 93% corresponds to vegetation in the grass and brush fuel types.
States with the highest number of fires were Mexico, Mexico City, Chihuahua, Michoacán, Jalisco,
Puebla, Tlaxcala, Durango, Chiapas, and Guerrero representing 82% of the national total. States with
the largest areas affected were Chihuahua, Guerrero, Durango, Jalisco, Chiapas, Nuevo León, Nayarit,
Michoacán, Oaxaca, and Sonora, which represent 79% of the national total.

Canada Discussion

November/December/January: While snow cover is absent across much of southern Canada outside
of mountain ranges, occasional frontal systems will likely help generate enough precipitation to restrict
fire activity in the Prairies, the most vulnerable region to autumn grass fires. Substantial precipitation in
eastern Canada is limiting the fire potential there.

While mild temperatures are likely in most of Canada for December, an indication of normal to above
normal precipitation in most regions favors normal fire activity during December. Normal winter
conditions are forecast in Canada during January, with normal to above normal precipitation amounts
across most of the nation. While temperatures may remain above normal in eastern regions,
precipitation amounts are usually moderate to heavy. This suggests fire activity in Canada will be
minimal or absent in January.

United States Discussion

November/December/January: Climate outlooks indicate warmer than normal conditions are likely for
much of CONUS into winter, with temperatures likely closer to normal in the Pacific Northwest, Northern
Rockies, and the northern Plains. Above normal precipitation is likely across the Pacific Northwest into
the Northern Rockies as well as the Great Lakes and Northeast into winter with below normal
precipitation likely for the southern half of the West and the southern and central Plains into the
Southeast.

Above normal significant fire potential is forecast to continue through November for the lee sides and
saddles of the Hawai’ian Islands. Above normal fire potential is forecast for the coastal plain of the
Carolinas in November expanding southward into southeast Georgia and much of the Florida Peninsula
by January. Above normal fire potential is forecast to develop over much of the western Oklahoma,
west Texas and eastern New Mexico in January with the possibility of above normal potential beginning
as early as the latter half of December. All other areas are likely to have near normal significant fire
potential or are out of fire season through January.

Mexico Discussion

November/December/January: Below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures are
forecast across much of Mexico from November 2021 through January 2022. The below normal
precipitation and above normal temperatures are likely to begin to stress fuels during this period, but
wildfire risk is expected to remain near average during the period except for above normal potential in
northeastern Chihuahua and north of Coahuila in January. It is possible northeast Chihuahua and
northern Coahuila may see above normal potential as early as December. On the other hand, the
drought areas in the state of Baja California are likely to be reduced by occasional winter storm systems,
implying a decrease in fire potential in this area.

Additional Information
Additional and supplemental information for this outlook can be obtained at:

United States:
National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook
http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf

Canada:
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System
http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/home

Mexico:
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=156&Itemid=113

Outlook Objective
The North American Seasonal Fire Assessment and Outlook is a general discussion of conditions that
will affect the occurrence of wildland fires across Canada, the United States, and Mexico. Wildland fire
is a natural part of many ecosystems across North America. This document provides a broad
assessment of those factors that will contribute to an increase or decrease of seasonal fire activity. The
objective is to assist wildland fire managers prepare for the potential variations in a typical fire season.
It is not intended as a prediction of where and when wildland fires will occur nor is it intended to suggest
any area is safe from the hazards of wildfire.

Acknowledgements
Contributions to this document were made by:

Canada:        Richard Carr, Natural Resources Canada
               Ginny Marshall, Natural Resources Canada

United States: Nick Nauslar, Predictive Services, Bureau of Land Management
               Jim Wallmann, Predictive Services, US Forest Service
               Dianna Sampson, GIS, Bureau of Land Management

Mexico:        Martín Ibarra, Servicio Meteorológico Nacional
               Dario Rodríguez, Servicio Meteorológico Nacional

Abril Z. Espejo Madrigal, Servicio Meteorológico Nacional
Jose L. Solis Aguirre, Servicio Meteorológico Nacional