NORWEP Global Offshore Wind Report 2021 & Norwegian industry expectations - In collaboration with: Research by
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NORWEP
In collaboration with:
Global Offshore Wind
Report 2021
&
Nor wegian industry
expectations
Research by:
Agenda
• Welcome - Jon Dugstad, Director Wind and Solar, Norwegian Energy
Partners
• Launch of NORWEP's Global Annual Offshore Wind Market Report with
new targets for the industry - Jon Dugstad, Director Wind and Solar,
Norwegian Energy Partners
• Key figures, opportunities and challenges in key global offshore wind
markets – Ronnie Quinn, Advisor Renewable Markets UK and Ireland,
Norwegian Energy Partners
• Tony Christian Tiller, State Secretary, Ministry of Petroleum and Energy
• Norwegian industrial growth opportunities in the European offshore
wind industry - Giles Dickson, Chief Executive Officer, WindEurope
• Discussion: How should the Norwegian supply industry engage in these
exciting opportunities? How can NORWEP and the wider Norwegian
support community help the Norwegian industry to become a leading
offshore wind contender on a global scale?
Norwegian Energy Partners Founders
Organisations
- Energy Norway
- Federation of Norwegian Industries
- Norwegian Oil and Gas Association
is an independent non-profit foundation established to strengthen the
- Norwegian Shipowners’ Association
long-term basis for value creation and employment in the Norwegian
- The Norwegian Confederation of
energy industry through facilitation of the industry’s international
Trade Unions
business activities.
Norwegian Government
- Ministry of Petroleum and Energy
We have 300 partners/company members from the Norwegian - Ministry of Trade and Industry
offshore, energy and maritime industries! - Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Industry
- Equinor
- Statkraft
| 3
NORWEP - what we do
Provide market and project information to
NORWEP partners and Norwegian industry at
large
Identify Norwegian competence and technology
that fit the needs of the global energy industry
Create relevant dialogues between the
Norwegian industry and international partners
and clients
Equinor Peregrino B
Ole Jørgen Bratland
Market Report and Offshore Wind Tool
Capacity of announced projects almost doubled in
2020
# Country Operational Secured Development* Total
1 Vietnam 99 783 64,919 65,801
2 China 8,524 24,824 30,237 63,586
3 United Kingdom 10,424 9,927 28,978 49,329
4 Brazil 42,537 42,537
5 Taiwan 128 5,167 36,229 41,524
6 USA 42 11,586 27,538 39,166
7 Sweden 191 36,766 36,957
8 Japan 61 146 36,162 36,369
9 Germany 7,653 3,125 10,552 21,330
10 South Korea 95 95 21,121 21,311
11 Ireland 25 21,023 21,048
12 Poland 5,933 12,804 18,737
13 Australia 15,887 15,887
The
14 2,620 2,682 6,100 11,402
Netherlands
33.9 GW 68.9 GW 430.4 GW 533.2 GW 15 Denmark 1,701 949 7,768 10,418
Operational Secured In development* Total 16 France 2 3,513 3,384 6,899
No change from Q1 ▲ 6.6% from Q1 ▲ 7.7% from Q1 ▲ 7.0% from Q1
*includes capacity without owners that is scheduled for
auction
Ranking based on total size of portfolio
6
Utility scale floating wind emerge
Taiwan 17.2
Ireland 8.4
Sweden 7.8
Australia 7.4
South Korea 7.2
Key markets
USA 4.9
Italy 3.7
Other 13.3
0 5 10 15 20
GW
Operational Route to market secured Development*
InfraVest 7.4
Oceanex Energy 7.4
CIP 5.8
Aker ASA 4.4
Hexicon 4.0
Key developers
0.07 GW 0.15 GW 69.7 GW 70 GW Stonepeak 2.9
Operational Secured In development* Total Renexia 2.8
No change from Q1 No change from Q1 ▲ 34.4% from Q1 ▲ 34.2% from Q1
Other 25.6
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
GW
Operational Route to market secured Development**
7
Upcoming lease auctions*
Netherlands – 2021 Norway – 2021
*Does not include projects established by developers with a
The Hollandse Kust West auction will take The Norwegian government is currently
view to be tendered to new owners at a later date.
place in Summer 2021, with further formulating a competitive process to allocate Denmark – 2021
auctions to follow sites in the UN and SN2 zones, with a view to The Danish government will offer a reverse auction CfD
offer projects by the end of 2021. tender for the Thor and Hesselø wind farms in 2021.
Ireland – 2021
Prequalified bidders for Thor were announced in February
Ireland has scheduled an offshore wind
’21.
specific RESS auction for 2021. There is
speculation over whether it will be
launched by the end of the year. Lithuania – 2023
The Lithuanian government is preparing to
tender a 700 MW project with a provisional
auction date of February 2023.
New York – 2021 / 22
In 2021 BOEM specified call areas for
lease in the New York Bight and
announced an auction would be
launched in late 2021 or early 2022. Germany – 2021
Three sites with a combined capacity of 958
California - 2022 MW will be tendered in September 2021
After multiple delays to an auction
originally planned for 2019, BOEM
announced in 2021 it would ramp up
activity to lease areas off California in
Japan - 2021
2022.
Japan is expected to announce the
winners of ongoing tenders for both
North Carolina - 2022 fixed and floating areas in 2021 and
BOEM announced in 2021 that it would 2022. Further auctions are also
seek to launch a lease auction for WEAs planned.
offshore North Carolina in 2022, prior to
the implementation off a moratorium on
new leasing off the coast of the state from
Taiwan – 2022
2023.
The draft zonal development plan
for offshore wind in Taiwan
Confirmed lease France – 2021 / 2022 outlines auctions for 3 GW of
auctions Competitive lease auctions are currently capacity each year from 2022 to
underway at various stages for the 1 GW Belgium – 2023 India - 2022 2024.
Speculated lease Normandy fixed foundation project and The Belgian government has identified 1 GW lease had been
auctions the 270 MW Brittany I floating site. Both a second Marine Development Area for scheduled for 2019 but has
auctions will be completed in 2022. offshore wind leasing and is expected been delayed to 2022 awaiting
to auction three sites in the area in site inspections from LiDAR
2023. devices
8 8
10
11
Key developers • As early movers in the
offshore wind sector,
European utilities lead the
global portfolio ranking.
Iberdrola 29.2
Ørsted 28.7 • Increased competition from
oil majors and regional
Ocean Winds 20.8
developers.
CIP 19.4
RWE 14.0 • EPCI and institutional
wpd 12.8 investors are investing in early
Equinor 12.3
stage projects in line with
inherent developers.
Other 317.9
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 • Alliances are evolving – across
GW the world.
Operational Route to market secured Development**
12Technologies
• Fixed-foundation project development
33.9 continues to be the industry focus.
Fixed 68.7
• The first tenders to allocate a route to
360.7 market for utility-scale floating
foundation projects are due to take
0.1 place from 2021.
Floating 0.2
• Consistent deployment of floating-
69.7 foundation projects from 2025 is
expected to encourage further
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
development.
GW
Operational Route to market secured Development*Projects and turbines are getting bigger
Average project size by region and year Average wind turbine generator size by year
1.6 20 300
1.4 18
250
1.3 16
1.2
14
200
1.0 1.0
0.9 12
metres
0.9
MW
GW
0.8 0.8 0.8
0.8 10 18.5
150
17.0
0.6 0.6 8 14.5
15.4 16.0
0.5 0.5 0.5 100
0.4
0.5 0.5 6 11.6 11.6
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 9.5
0.3 0.3 4 7.7 7.8 7.7
0.3 0.3 0.3 6.2
7.4
50
0.2 0.2 0.2 5.5
0.2 0.2 0.2
2 4.1 4.3 4.1 4.3
0.1 0.1 3.0 3.2 3.1
0.1
0.0 0 0
Operational year Operational year
EMEA APAC (excl. China) Americas Avg. WTG rating (MW) Avg. rotor diameter (m) Avg. hub height (m)Boom!
• Capacity commissioned to close in on
230 GW i 2030
• A consistent stream of tenders and
capacity auctions will ensure more
35 250 projects secure a route to market
30.7 29.8 through to 2030 in the EMEA
30
200 • APAC commissioning expected to grow
23.9
25
Cumulative GW
22.2
GW per annum
rapidly with identified routes-to-
19.4 19.1 markets
20 150
15.0
15
13.7 • China project commissioning at
11.1 100 unprecedented rates as central support
8.5 8.1
10 6.1
is due to expire in 2022
3.5 4.2 50
5 1.5
• In the Americas a strong route to
market pipeline has been secured by
0 0 state-level authorities in the US
• Ambitious government targets will be
Year missed due to supply chain constraints
Cumulative EMEA China APAC (excl. China) Americas and administrative delays
15O ve ra l l ex p e n d i t u re i s s et t o r i s e
• An average global annual market
of 50 bn EUR in the early 2020s
will be worth 80-90 bn EUR
100 90.7 900
86.2 86.3 annually towards 2030.
90 800
75.8
80 72.8 700 • TotEx is forecast to fall in China
Cumulative EURbn
EURbn per annum
67.1
70 600 based on the current project
60 53.7
51.2
47.0 49.8 47.9 500 pipeline. The expected increase in
50 41.6 new development activity
400
40 following adjustment to updated
28.4
300
30 19.1 21.4 route to market mechanisms from
20 200 2022 is however likely to increase
10 100 expenditure in line with trends in
0 0 other regions.
• Supply chain bottlenecks and
Year
localisation requirements may
Cumulative China United Kingdom USA Germany Taiwan Japan Vietnam Other limit cost reductions.Europe maintains its pole position
Top 16 (Q2 2021)
# Country Operational Secured Development* Total
1 United Kingdom 10,424 9,927 28,978 49,329
2 Sweden 191 36,766 36,957
3 Germany 7,653 3,125 10,552 21,330
4 Ireland 25 21,023 21,048
5 Poland 5,933 12,804 18,737
6 The Netherlands 2,620 2,682 6,100 11,402
7 Denmark 1,701 949 7,768 10,418
8 France 2 3,513 3,384 6,899
9 Estonia 6,264 6,264
10 Italy 30 5,097 5,127
11 Norway 2 92 4,519 4,613
12 Belgium 2,261 2,040 4,301
13 Spain 5 2 3,197 3,204
14 Finland 68 740 808
15 Greece 714 714
25.0 GW 26.3 GW 151.4 GW 202.6 GW
Operational Secured In development* Total 16 Lithuania 700 700
No change from Q1 ▲ 6.6% from Q1 ▲ 8.0% from Q1 ▲ 6.7% from Q1
Ranking based on total size of portfolio
*includes capacity without owners that is scheduled for auction
17A short journey from Nor way
North Sea 80.4
Baltic Sea 52.2
Irish Sea 18.7
Gulf of Bothnia 10.6
Atlantic Ocean 9.8
Kattegat 9.3
Celtic Sea 5.7
Other 15.9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
GW
Operational Route to market secured Development*
18Americas
• US market remained focused on
offtake solicitations and
permitting for late-stage
development projects.
• Brazilian early stage
development portfolio expanded
rapidly in 2020.
0.04 GW 11.6 GW 70.7 GW 82.3 GW • First offshore wind farm in
Operational Secured In development* Total Colombia was unveiled.
No change from Q1 ▲ 29.8% from Q1 ▲ 6.5% from Q1 ▲ 9.3% from Q1
*includes capacity without owners that is scheduled for auction
19# Country Operational Secured Development* Total
APAC ex. China 1
2
Vietnam
Taiwan
99
128
783
5,167
64,919
36,229
65,801
41,524
3 Japan 61 146 36,162 36,369
4 South Korea 95 95 21,121 21,311
5 Australia 15,887 15,887
6 Philippines 2,450 2,450
7 India 1,400 1,400
0.38 GW 6.2 GW 178.2 GW 184.7 GW
Operational Secured In development* Total
No change from Q1 No change from Q1 ▲ 9.3% from Q1 ▲ 9.0% from Q1
• *includes capacity without owners that is scheduled for auction or where owner
info is absent
20The Chinese dragon
# Country Operational Secured Development Total
1 Guangdong 1,022 9,934 21,333 32,289
2 Jiangsu 5,777 6,771 1,901 14,449
3 Fujian 129 3,619 1,855 5,603
4 Zhejiang 486 2,389 900 3,775
5 Shandong 1,205 1,803 3,007
6 Liaoning 303 400 1,199 1,902
7 Hebei 300 300 497 1,097
8 Shanghai 417 206 200 823
9 Tianjin 90 350 440
10 Hong Kong 200 200
8.52 GW 24.8 GW 30.2 GW 63.6 GW
Operational Secured In development Total
No change from Q1 No change from Q1 No change from Q1 No change from Q1
21An emerging Nor wegian offshore wind industr y Source: Multiconsult: Statusrapport Norges energinæringer (2020)
An annual 80-100 bn NOK worth of Nor wegian
offshore wind solutions
90 000 14.0 %
80 000
12.0 %
70 000
10.0 %
60 000
50 000 8.0 %
40 000 6.0 %
30 000
4.0 %
20 000
2.0 %
10 000
- 0.0 %
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Annual international turnover Norwegian supply industry market share
..with a 10% market share and more than 500 bn NOK deliveries in the period to 2030. 23What does it take?
• A number of large Norwegian suppliers engage successfully in offshore wind globally
• Norwegian based companies
• develop market and industry acumen and risk understanding
• increase offshore wind ambitions and deploy the necessary resources
• develop volume manufacturing skills
• establish scale in international markets in competition with established global supply chain
• Norwegian developers are active on the Norwegian and international shelf
• Norwegian developers and international partners on the NS adopts more Norwegian
solutions in projects globally
24Would you like to know more? www.norwep.com/wind
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