Profile of heating and cooling demand in 2015 - D 3.1 2017 This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and ...

 
Profile of heating and cooling demand in 2015 - D 3.1 2017 This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and ...
Profile of heating and
     cooling demand in 2015

                                D 3.1

                                 2017

                     This project has received funding from the European
                     Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation
                     programme under grant agreement No. 695989.

www.heatroadmap.eu                                                @HeatRoadmapEU
Profile of heating and cooling demand in 2015 - D 3.1 2017 This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and ...
Authors:    Tobias Fleiter, Rainer Elsland, Matthias Rehfeldt, Jan Steinbach (Fraunhofer ISI)
            Ulrich Reiter, Giacomo Catenazzi, Martin Jakob (TEP Energy GmbH)
            Cathelijne Rutten, Robert Harmsen (University Utrecht)
            Florian Dittmann, Philippe Rivière, Pascal Stabat (ARMINES)

Contact:    Tobias Fleiter
            Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research
            Breslauer Str. 48
            76139 Karlsruhe
            Germany

            E-mail: Tobias.Fleiter@isi.fhg.de
            Heat Roadmap Europe website: www.heatroadmap.eu

Deliverable No.          D 3.1: Report
                         © 2017

                            This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020
                            research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 695989. The
                            sole responsibility for the content of this document lies with the authors. It
                            does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the funding authorities. The funding
                            authorities are not responsible for any use that may be made of the
                            information contained therein.

2
www.heatroadmap.e                                                                  @HeatRoadmapEU
Profile of heating and cooling demand in 2015 - D 3.1 2017 This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and ...
3
www.heatroadmap.e   @HeatRoadmapEU
Profile of heating and cooling demand in 2015 - D 3.1 2017 This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and ...
Profile of heating and cooling demand in 2015 - D 3.1 2017 This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and ...
Table of Contents
 1.          Introduction ..........................................................................................3
 2.          Method, definitions and data sources ........................................................6
      2.1.        Method ...........................................................................................6
      2.2.        Definitions ......................................................................................9
      2.3.        Data sources ................................................................................. 13
 3.          Summary of main results ...................................................................... 14
 4.          References ......................................................................................... 16

                                                                                                                   1
www.heatroadmap.eu                                                                          @HeatRoadmapEU
Profile of heating and cooling demand in 2015 - D 3.1 2017 This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and ...
2   www.heatroadmap.eu   @HeatRoadmapEU
Profile of heating and cooling demand in 2015 - D 3.1 2017 This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and ...
1. Introduction
In Europe, there is a clear long-term objective to decarbonise the energy system, but
it is currently unclear how this will be achieved in the heating and cooling sector. The
Heat Roadmap Europe (HRE) project will enable new policies and prepare the ground
for new investments by creating more certainty regarding the changes that are
required. Heat Roadmap Europe is co-funded by the European Union, brings together
24 academic, industrial, governmental and civil society partners, and runs from 2016-
2019.

The overall objective of the HRE project is to provide new capacity and skills for lead
users in the heating and cooling sector including policymakers, industry, and
researchers at local, national, and EU levels by developing the data, tools, and
methodologies necessary to quantify the impact of implementing more energy efficiency
measures on both the demand and supply sides of the sector.

This WP3 report presents a breakdown of both the demand and supply of heating and
cooling energy for the year 2015 and thus provides the starting point for the scenario
analyses up until 2050.

Conventional energy balances (both national and Eurostat) generally provide the final
energy demand split by sector (residential, industry, tertiary and transport), energy
carrier and also by sub-sector for industry. They do not usually provide information on
end-uses such as heating, cooling, mechanical energy or useful energy (i.e. the heat
that is used by the consumer, e.g. for heating a room). A recent review found that
several EU countries provide end-use balances for the residential sector and some for
the tertiary sector, but only three countries do so for the industry sector (United
Kingdom, Germany and Austria) (Fraunhofer ISI et al. 2016). However, the method and
definitions used in the various countries deviate from one another and it is not possible
to derive a consistent EU-wide end-use energy balance simply by combining national
data (Fraunhofer ISI et al. 2016).

As a consequence, the energy demand for heating and cooling (H/C) cannot be derived
from the currently existing official energy balances in a consistent way for all EU
countries. Neither is it possible to calculate the share of renewable energies in H/C
without simplification as done, for example, in the SHARES project1, which excludes all
electricity consumption from H/C energy use. This approach does not provide accurate
results in many countries.

Therefore, this deliverable aims to profile the energy demand for H/C by calculating
energy balances for all 28 EU countries that include H/C. However, the focus of the
analysis and input-data quality checks is on the 14 EU countries with the highest H/C
demand as in the other HRE deliverables. The remaining 14 countries were added so

1
    http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/de/web/energy/data/shares

                                                                                       3
www.heatroadmap.eu                                                    @HeatRoadmapEU
Profile of heating and cooling demand in 2015 - D 3.1 2017 This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and ...
that figures could be presented for the entire EU28. The balances are based on the
same method applied across countries, which should make them comparable and
consistent. The approach used combines empirical data, e.g. market shares, industrial
production or technology stock with bottom-up model simulation to derive energy
demands for 2015. The bottom-up model FORECAST2 is used for this purpose.

2015 was chosen as the start year for scenario development in the HRE4 project so the
H/C profile is also developed for 2015. This poses a few challenges related to data
availability. At the time of calculating the 2015 profiles, there was no final energy
demand balance available from Eurostat, which is ideally used for calibration. Other
input data are also only available for earlier years (e.g. industrial production statistics).
As a consequence, we calculate the 2015 heating and cooling profiles based on model
runs that begin in 2012.

SFH = Single-family house; MFH = Multi-family house, CHP = combined heat and power, RES= Renewable energy sources

Figure 1: Overview of disaggregation of H/C profiles by country (based on Fraunhofer ISI et
al. 2016)

The H/C profiles comprise all the elements also included in the Eurostat final energy
balances (e.g. energy carriers and sectors). They are then broken down by sub-sector,
end-use technology and even by temperature level for the industry sector to provide a
complete picture of energy demand for H/C in the various market segments.

Figure 1 provides an overview of the different dimensions considered. Two examples
are given here of how the resulting H/C profiles can be used: to obtain the final energy
demand for space heating in multi-family houses in Belgium that is provided by air-

2
    http://www.forecast-model.eu/

4     www.heatroadmap.eu                                                                 @HeatRoadmapEU
source heat pumps; and to show the coal used to provide process heat in the iron and
steel sector in Italy in the temperature range above 500°C.

The profiles include final energy demand as well as useful energy demand. We define
useful energy demand as the heat provided by the combined system of a boiler plus
storage.

In the following, the definitions and data sources are described, before an overview of
the main results is provided. The annex gives a more detailed analysis of the H/C
profiles in each sector (industry, residential and tertiary).

                                                                                     5
www.heatroadmap.eu                                                  @HeatRoadmapEU
2. Method, definitions and data sources
2.1.       Method
The approach used combines empirical data with bottom-up modelling of energy
demand. The empirical data are taken from official national statistics, surveys as well
as various statistics provided e.g. by industrial organisations. An overview of the main
data sources is provided in section 0. For the bottom-up modelling, we use the energy
demand model FORECAST. A separate bottom-up model based on sales data is used
only for space cooling as described below.

2.1.1. Deriving end-use energy balances using the bottom-up
       model FORECAST
The FORECAST model comprises three individual modules; each represents one sector
in line with the Eurostat (or national) energy balances: industry, services/tertiary and
residential. While all the sector modules follow a similar bottom-up methodology, they
also consider the particularities of each sector like technology structure, actor
heterogeneity and data availability. Energy demand is calculated based on technology
structure and technology characteristics as well as economic drivers and prices.

In the short term, the most important determinants of energy demand are ambient
temperature (affecting mainly space heating) and economic activity (affecting mainly
industrial process H/C demand). While the FORECAST model includes a detailed
simulation of technological change based on vintage stock models, these effects are
more important in the longer term (e.g. towards 2030 and beyond) and less so in the
short term.

FORECAST takes ambient temperature into account using the annual average
heating/cooling degree days (HDDs/CDDs) as shown in Table 4. Industrial activity is
reflected using the annual value added by sub-sector and the physical production per
year for major energy-intensive bulk products (e.g. tonnes of oxygen steel produced).
2015 production data were not available for most of the around 60 products considered
and forecasts were made based on past time series. Activities in the services sector are
driven by the number of employees and the sub-sector-specific energy demand per
employee and floor area.

As an example, Figure 2 shows how end-use energy balances are derived in FORECAST-
Industry based on bottom-up data by process and end-use. This approach combines
activity data such as production and employment with specific energy demand by
process/end-use.

6   www.heatroadmap.eu                                              @HeatRoadmapEU
Production [t/a]                                      Employment [Pers./a]
                           - by process                                - by sub-sector and building type
     Processes (H/C)                                 Space cooling                                               Space heating

    SEC                       FEDc,p,                                              Floor areaC,S,B                     m²/Person

                                                SEC
    Share H/C               FEDc,p,H/C          [kWh/m²]                                                               SEC [kWh/m²]
                                                                           FEDC,S,B,A          FEDC,S,B,H

                                                Share cooled
    Share Temp             FEDc,p,H/C,T                                                        FEDC,S,B,H

    Share EC
    (Eurostat)             FEDc,p,H/C,T

                                                                                        Bottom-up / top-down matching

    FED: Final energy demand                         Bottom-up FEDC,EC,E,T,S                         FED C,S,EC,T,E
    SEC: Specific energy demand
    C: Country
    P: Process
    H/C: Heating/Cooling                                 FED (Gap)C,S,EC                         FED (Gap) C,S,EC,T,H
    T: Temperature
    S: Sub-Sector
    B: Building type
    E: End-use
    A: Air conditioning / cooling                      FED (Eurostat)C,S,EC                      Share Temp (gap)

Source:               Fraunhofer ISI et al. (2016)

Figure 2:            Schematic representation of an end-use balance model calculation for the
                     industry sector (FORECAST-Industry)

Note that the calculation of H/C profiles is largely based on earlier work summarized in
Fraunhofer ISI et al. (2016). We also refer to this publication for a more detailed
description of the methodology by sector. However, we extend the H/C profile here by
including individual technologies such as heat pumps or industrial CHP units and
information on the technology stock such as the number of units installed in certain
market segments.

      2.1.2. Space cooling
Space cooling demand and supply are calculated using a bottom-up model developed
by Armines. The demand is then split into sub-sectors according to the cooling shares
calculated by the FORECAST model (Aebischer et al. 2007). This approach is used to
update the cooling demand figures and is described in the following (for a more detailed
description of the approach and the input data, we refer to the separate HRE deliverable
on space cooling3).

Total space cooling demand and electricity consumption under standard conditions are
estimated using equipment sales. These include all vapour compression technologies

3
 D3.2: Cooling technology datasheets and accompanying report "Dittmann, Perret-Gentil,
Riviere, Paardekooper, Connolly (2017): "Space Cooling in Europe: Technology Data and
Demand Modelling, Mines ParisTech – ARMINES, Paris"

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www.heatroadmap.eu                                                                                                    @HeatRoadmapEU
available on the market, such as air-to-air split and VRF systems, ducted and rooftop
installations, air-cooled and water-cooled chillers as well as portable and window units.
The following steps apply to each sector in each country and each technology. Figure 3
shows the flow of information in detail. The total nominal cooling power installed is
estimated by calculating the 2015 stock from the number of units sold over the
preceding 24 years, the average power of the units sold and the average lifetime of the
technology. Dividing the installed power by the average power installed per unit of
indoor floor area (equipment sizing) yields the total cooled floor area. To estimate the
total space cooling supplied in the base year, the cooled floor area is multiplied by the
cooling energy demand per floor area (specific demand). The average SEER (seasonal
energy efficiency ratio) of units installed can be derived by combining the average SEER
of units sold with the stock model. Total electricity consumption under standard
conditions was then obtained by dividing the total cooling supply by the average SEER.
Actual electricity consumption is in fact higher due to suboptimal installation (over-
sizing), maintenance and usage practices. However, there is no statistically significant
information available to enable accurate corrections to the standard efficiencies.

    EFFICIENCY                                                                                                 TECHNOLOGYSTOCK
                                                                    Units sold/y 1992-2015 (24y) by
                                    SEER of units sold of               ranges of cooling power
       Eco-design studies          Technology ( each year )

        Certification data                                              Units sold in sector by            Repartition of units sold
                                                                       ranges of cooling power                  over sector s
            EU Regulation
                                   Total (seasonal) electric                                              Distribution of units sold
                                                                       Total cooling power sold
                                     power of units sold                                                 within cooling power ranges

                                   Total (seasonal) electric
                                                                        Lifetime of technology
                                   power of units installed

                                        SEER of units                Total cooling power installed
                                          installed                           2011-2015

       INSTALLATION                                                                                                 BUILDINGSTOCK
                                                                                                      Total ar ea      Building type
               Manufacturers         Sizing ( cooling power/area)                                     of building      distribution of
            Installation manuals          for building types                                             types             sector

            Hour ly weather data            Building type
                 (one year)                demand models                   Total area cooled                 Comparison with
                                                                                                            other models/data

             DC SPECIFIC                  Specific demand
                                                                             Total cooling                   Comparison with
           DEMAND MODEL                      (cooling
                                                                                                            other models/data
                                           energy/area)                         supply
           by building type

       BUILDINGDEMAND
                                                                           Total electricity                 Comparison with
                                                                            consumption                     other models/data

Figure 3: Overview of method for space cooling demand estimation

8   www.heatroadmap.eu                                                                                @HeatRoadmapEU
2.2.               Definitions
The following summarises the main definitions used for the H/C profiles.

Final energy, delivered heat and useful energy

We define final energy in line with Eurostat as the energy input to the heating unit at
the final consumer. Like Eurostat, we also exclude ambient heat used in heat pumps.
Only the electricity or gas consumption of heat pumps is included in the final energy.

The definition of useful energy is less standardized. Different studies use different
definitions. We define useful energy as the energy distributed to the end-user, e.g. the
heat to a room provided by a radiator. Thus, useful energy takes into account potential
losses from local distribution, e.g. in the pipes in a building. Fraunhofer ISI et al. (2016)
use a similar definition for useful energy. However, our results are not based on useful
energy but on delivered energy instead. This is defined at the conversion step from final
energy to useful energy (see Figure 4). We define delivered energy as the heat or cold
produced by the combined system of an onsite boiler and storage before it enters the
distribution system. Possible losses in the distribution system (e.g. within a building)
are not taken into account for delivered energy.

       Local distribution                                                  Transformation sector
                                Heat storage                 Heating            & network
                                                             system
          Losses

                                                                              Losses
                                 Losses

                                                    Losses

  Heat or cold distributed     Heat or cold produced by                Energy input to
  to end‐use                   boiler + storage                        boiler or plant

  =   Useful energy            = Delivered energy                      = Final energy

Figure 4: Definition of final, delivered and useful energy

Technologies and energy carriers

A major extension of this report compared to Fraunhofer ISI et al. (2016) is the inclusion
of technology information. In order to keep the amount of data to a manageable level,
we use one combined dimension to represent energy carriers and technologies. While

                                                                                                   9
www.heatroadmap.eu                                                           @HeatRoadmapEU
some energy carriers are well defined by particular technologies (e.g. gas is mainly used
in gas boilers), others are not (e.g. electricity). In the latter case, we split electricity
use into individual technologies including air-source and ground-source heat pumps,
direct electric resistance heating and compression cooling. Table 1 provides a complete
overview.

Table 1: Definition of technologies/ energy carriers

                                       Definition / comment
 Technology/ Energy carrier (final
 energy)
 Total                                 Sum of all energy technologies/energy carriers
 Gas                                   includes all gas technologies not listed separately below,
                                       still mainly individual boilers

 Oil                                   see gas
 Coal                                  see gas
 Electric heating                      Direct electric heating (resistance heating also for night
                                       storage)
 District heating                      DH substations
 Biomass                               Includes all biomass/biofuels/biogas technologies not
                                       listed separately below
 Solar thermal                         Only solar thermal.
 Heat pumps total (electric)           Include only electricity in final energy demand; ambient
                                       heat not included; gas heat pumps not included
 Heat pumps air‐source (electric)      See heat pumps total; only heat pumps using air as heat
                                       source
 Heat pumps ground‐source (electric)   See heat pumps total; only heat pumps using the ground
                                       as heat source
 Others (RES)                          Mainly RES waste and deep geothermal

 Others (fossil)                       Mainly fuels used in industry including waste, stack gas,
                                       etc.
 Compression cooling (electric)        Aggregates all cooling technologies

Sectors and sub-sectors

In terms of sectors, we follow the Eurostat energy balance definition by including
industry, tertiary/services and residential. For industry sub-sectors, we aggregate the
Eurostat energy balances slightly in order to have fewer very small sub-sectors. This
aggregation leads to a total of 8 sub-sectors (see Table 2). For the tertiary sector, we
also include 8 sub-sectors (see Table 3). Note that Eurostat does not provide
information for sub-sectors in the tertiary sector.

10 www.heatroadmap.eu                                                              @HeatRoadmapEU
Table 2: Definition of sub-sectors in industry

 Sub‐sectors                              NACE 2.0 Divisions
 Iron and steel                           24.1, 24.2, 24.3, 24.51, 24.52
 Non‐ferrous metals                       24,4, 24.53, 24.54
 Paper, pulp and printing                 17, 18
 Non‐metallic mineral products            23
 Chemical industry                        20
 Food, drink and tobacco                  10, 11, 12
 Engineering and other metal              25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30
 Other non‐classified                     13, 14, 15, 16, etc

Table 3: Definition of sub-sectors in services

 Economic subsector         NACE (2.0)   Description
 Trade                      G            Wholesale and retail trade
 Hotel and restaurant       I
                                         Hotels and restaurants, camping sites, mountain refuges, bars,
                                         canteens, catering
 Traffic and data           H, J         Transport (railway, road, water, air), storage and
 transmission                            communication, cargo handling, post, telecommunications,
 Finance                    K            Finance and insurance
 Health                     Q
                                         Health and social work, hospital activities, social work activities
                                         with accommodation
 Education                  P            Primary and secondary education, higher education

 Public administration      O            Public administration and defence, compulsory and social
                                         security
 Other services             L,M,N,R,S    Other services (waste, sport, social services) + real estate and
                                         other services

Heating degree days (HDDs)

Heating degree days are used to correct space heating demand to the respective climate
conditions of 2015. HDDs are taken from Eurostat as shown in Table 4. For most
countries, 2015 has lower HDD values than the average annual values from 2010 to
2015. This means the demand for space heating was lower because 2015 was a
relatively warm year.

                                                                                                            11
www.heatroadmap.eu                                                                    @HeatRoadmapEU
Table 4: Heating degree days (HDDs) used (source: Eurostat)

 Country              2010    2011    2012    2013     2014   2015     Average 2010‐2015
 EU‐27/28            3,473    3,119   3,420   3,218   2,809   2,904                3,157
 Austria             3,704    3,404   3,554   3,640   3,125   3,318                3,457
 Belgium             3,174    2,399   2,772   3,024   2,315   2,633                2,719
 Bulgaria            2,596    2,796   2,611   2,414   2,371   2,374                2,527
 Croatia               n.a.    n.a.    n.a.   2,301   1,895   2,256                 n.a.
 Cyprus                442     832     826     701      556    750                  685
 Czech Republic      3,832    3,234   3,399   3,512   2,918   3,090                3,331
 Denmark             3,971    3,150   3,423   3,402   2,855   3,114                3,319
 Estonia             4,818    4,083   4,579   4,152   4,142   3,791                4,261
 Finland             6,058    5,251   5,857   5,278   5,242   5,031                5,453
 France              2,707    2,053   2,441   2,636   2,085   2,257                2,363
 Germany             3,611    2,868   3,126   3,288   2,661   2,908                3,077
 Greece              1,343    1,790   1,655   1,451   1,393   1,578                1,535
 Hungary             2,936    2,815   2,771   2,687   2,286   2,597                2,682
 Ireland             3,125    2,754   2,858   2,835   2,631   2,913                2,853
 Italy               1,992    1,861   1,968   1,933   1,632   1,810                1,866
 Latvia              4,622    3,940   4,320   4,037   3,948   3,658                4,088
 Lithuania           4,409    3,768   4,082   3,872   3,727   3,524                3,897
 Luxembourg          3,358    2,624   2,917   3,229   2,500   2,853                2,913
 Malta                 385     549     662     460      374    544                  496
 Netherlands         3,300    2,512   2,814   3,010   2,285   2,625                2,758
 Poland              3,881    3,317   3,552   3,505   3,095   3,113                3,410
 Portugal            1,290    1,087   1,348   1,340   1,147   1,080                1,215
 Romania             2,988    3,173   3,090   2,863   2,729   2,786                2,938
 Slovak Republic     3,467    3,248   3,299   3,241   2,718   3,057                3,172
 Slovenia            3,041    2,818   2,832   2,867   2,342   2,700                2,767
 Spain               1,913    1,562   1,871   1,910   1,570   1,612                1,740
 Sweden              5,874    4,927   5,504   5,186   4,887   4,910                5,214
 United Kingdom      3,403    2,846   3,183   3,179   2,740   3,017                3,061

12 www.heatroadmap.eu                                                 @HeatRoadmapEU
2.3.           Data sources
The following table provides an overview of the main data sources used.

Table 5: Selected data sources used

 Sector        Sub‐area                 Data sources used

               Dwelling stock, living   Enerdata (2016b), Enerdata (2016c), Eurostat (2016)
               area
 Residential
 sector
               Technology and           Enerdata (2016b), Enerdata, TU Vienna, Fraunhofer ISI et al.
               energy‐related data      (2016), Fraunhofer ISI, Fraunhofer ISE, IREES et al. (2016)

                                        EUROSTAT (number of employees), EU Building observatory, BPIE,
               Building and             Odyssee database (general), FhG‐ISE survey data (district heat),
 Tertiary
 sector        technology data          various EuP preparatory studies, IREES and ARMINES (cooling
                                        technologies)

                                        Prodcom, UNFCCC, Eurostat, industrial organisations (VDP,
               Industrial production    Cembureau, World Steel Association, Glassglobal) US geological
 Industry                               survey
 sector
                                        PLATTs database, Eurostat CHP statistics, numerous individual
               Technology data
                                        studies for individual sub‐sectors, e.g. Fleiter et al. (2011)

               Renewable energy         Eurostat energy balances, EHPA market reports, Observ´ER market
               technologies             reports

               Final and useful         Eurostat and national end‐use energy balances such as DUKES for
               energy demand            the UK.

                                        Space cooling sales: BSRIA WMI Market studies, Eurovent Market
                                        intelligence

 Cross‐                                 Specific demand (Service sector): District cooling deliveries
 cutting                                (Werner, 2015)
                                        Specific demand (residential sector): Dynamic building demand
               Space cooling            modelling (Rivière et al., 2008)
                                        Standard SEER values of sales: EU studies (Adnot et al., 1999),
                                        (Adnot et al., 2003), (Rivière et al., 2009), (Rivière et al., 2012),
                                        current Eurovent Certification product directory, public
                                        information and regulatory information from air conditioner labels
                                        and MEPS (EC, 2002), (EU, 2011), (EU, 2012) and (EU, 2016);

                                                                                                           13
www.heatroadmap.eu                                                                     @HeatRoadmapEU
3. Summary of main results
The resulting heating and cooling profiles allow a very detailed insight into the pattern
of H/C demand and supply by country, end-use, sector, sub-sector, energy carrier and
temperature level.

A few selected main results are presented here. A more detailed analysis of the results
is given in the annex to this report and allows deeper insights into the individual sectors.

                                    Heating and                       Space heating
          Non-H/C                     cooling                             27%
           50%                         50%                Process
                                                          heating
                                                            16%

                                                                               Hot water
                                                                                 4%
                                                          Space     Process
                                                          cooling   cooling    Other heating
                                                            1%        1%           1%

Other heating = cooking in residential buildings

Figure 5: Heating and cooling demand in 2015 in the EU28 by end-use compared to total final
energy (FED) demand

Further key results are:

    •   With a final energy demand (FED) of 6350 TWh in 2015, H&C is very important
        and accounts for ~50% of EU28 FED

    •   Space heating (53% of FED for H/C) is the most important individual end-use
        followed by process heating (32% of FED for H/C)

    •   Cooling accounts for ~2% of total FED for H&C and has low shares in most
        countries, but the potential to grow strongly in the future

    •   Space heating is important in almost every country, while space cooling is
        only relevant in southern countries.

14 www.heatroadmap.eu                                                   @HeatRoadmapEU
0%
                     1%        0%
                                                      Gas
                     4%                               Oil
               8%
                                                      Biomass

                                                      Electricity
        9%
                                          42%         District heating

                                                      Coal
       12%
                                                      Others (fossil)

                                                      Solar thermal

              12%                                     Heat pumps

                           12%                        Others (RES)

Figure 6: H&C final energy by energy carrier in 2015 (EU28)

The energy carrier mix for H/C shows the following pattern:

   •   Fossil fuels account for >65% in EU28 FED

   •   Electricity and district heating account for 21% (mainly based on fossil fuels)

   •   Renewable energy sources (RES) account for about 13%

   •   Gas is the most dominant fuel in EU28 (422%) and in most countries

   •   Of the available RES, only biomass is used substantially (12%); solar thermal,
       geothermal and heat pumps are still marginal in almost every country

   •   However, the composition of energy carriers for H&C supply is very diverse
       across countries.

                                                                                         15
www.heatroadmap.eu                                                       @HeatRoadmapEU
3000
                                                                          Space heating
                                                                          Space cooling
                        2500
                                                                          Process heating
                                                                          Process cooling
   Final energy [TWh]

                        2000
                                                                          Hot water
                                                                          Other heating
                        1500

                        1000

                        500

                           0
                                Industry    Residential     Tertiary

Other heating = cooking in residential buildings

Figure 7: H&C FED by sector and end-use (EU28, 2015)

Key results by sector:

       •                With about 2850 TWh, the residential sector has the highest FED for H/C
                        followed by industry (2390 TWh) and the tertiary sector (1120 TWh)

       •                Process heat accounts for about 80% of H/C FED in the industry sector

       •                Industrial process heat >200°C accounts for ~50% of industrial H&C FED, and
                        poses a challenge when switching to RES

       •                The end-use and energy carrier structure in industry vary strongly by sub-
                        sector

       •                In residential space heating, SFHs are twice as important as MFHs as an EU28
                        average

       •                In the tertiary sector, all sub-sectors are dominated by space heating

       •                Space cooling is much more important in the tertiary sector than in the
                        residential sector.

4. References

16 www.heatroadmap.eu                                                                     @HeatRoadmapEU
Adnot et al. (1999) Energy efficiency of room air-conditioners. Paris: Ecole des Mines
    de Paris (coord. J. Adnot) et al, for DGTREN, the Commission of the European
    Communities, SAVE contract DGXVII4.103/D/97.026, May.
Adnot et al. (2003): Efficiency and Certification of Central Air Conditioners (EECCAC).
    Paris: Ecole des Mines de Paris (coord. J. Adnot) et al, for DGTREN, the
    Commission of the European Communities, SAVE contract, April.
Aebischer B., Jakob M., Catenazzi The late G., Henderson (2007). Impact of climate
     change on thermal comfort, heating and cooling energy demand in Europe.
     Proceedings eceee Summer Study 2007, Colle sur Loup, France, June (ISBN 978-
     91-633-0899-4).Enerdata (2016a): Odyssee-Mure database, Grenoble, France.
Enerdata (2016b): Stock of single and multifamily dwellings (permanently occupied),
    Grenoble, France.
Enerdata (2016c): Living area of dwellings, Grenoble, France.
Enerdata, TU Vienna, Fraunhofer ISI, BPIE, Sofena, Seven 7, National Consumer
    Research Centre, Öko-Institut, Efficiency Research Group, CENER: ENTRANZE -
    Policies to ENforce the TRAnsition to Nearly Zero Energy buildings in the EU-27,
    Grenoble, France.
Eurostat (2016): Number of private households by household composition,
     Luxembourg.
EU (2011): COMMISSION DELEGATED REGULATION (EU) No 626/2011 of 4 May 2011
     supplementing Directive 2010/30/EU of the European Parliament and of the
     Council with regard to energy labelling of air conditioners, OJ L 178, 6.7.2011, p.
     1–72.
EU (2012): Commission Regulation (EU) No 206/2012 of 6 March 2012 implementing
     Directive 2009/125/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard
     to ecodesign requirements for air conditioners and comfort fans, OJ L 72,
     10.3.2012, p. 7–27.
EU (2016): Commission Regulation (EU) 2016/2281 of 30 November 2016
     implementing Directive 2009/125/EC of the European Parliament and of the
     Council establishing a framework for the setting of ecodesign requirements for
     energy-related products, with regard to ecodesign requirements for air heating
     products, cooling products, high temperature process chillers and fan coil units,
     OJ L 346, 20.12.2016, p. 1–50.
Fleiter, Tobias; Schlomann, Barbara; Hirzel, Simon; Arens, Marlene; Hassan, Ali;
      Idrissova, Farikha et al. (Hg.) (2011): Where are the promising energy-efficient
      technologies? A comprehensive analysis of the German energy-intensive
      industries: eceee summer study 2011, June 6-11, Presqu’ile de Giens, France.

                                                                                     17
www.heatroadmap.eu                                                   @HeatRoadmapEU
Fraunhofer ISI; Fraunhofer ISE; IREES; Observ’ER; TU Wien; TEP Energy (2016):
     Mapping and analyses of the current and future (2020 - 2030) heating/cooling
     fuel deployment (fossil/renewables). Karlsruhe, Freiburg, Paris, Wien, Zürich.
Rivière et al. (2008): Preparatory Study on the Environmental Performance of
     Residential Room Conditioning Appliances (Airco and Ventilation), Armines, Paris,
     France, 2008.
Werner (2015): Sven Werner, European space cooling demands, Energy, Volume 110,
    1 September 2016, Pages 148-156, ISSN 0360-5442.

18 www.heatroadmap.eu                                              @HeatRoadmapEU
Profile of heating and cooling
         demand in 2015

                D3.1 - Detailed results annex

This project has received funding from the
European Union's Horizon 2020 research          www.heatroadmap.eu
and innovation programme under grant              @HeatRoadmapEU
agreement No. 695989.
Contents

• Overview
• Industry sector
• Residential sector
• Tertiary sector
• Cooling
• Conclusions
   This project has received funding from the
   European Union's Horizon 2020 research       www.heatroadmap.eu
   and innovation programme under grant           @HeatRoadmapEU
   agreement No. 695989.
OVERVIEW

  This project has received funding from the
  European Union's Horizon 2020 research       www.heatroadmap.eu
  and innovation programme under grant           @HeatRoadmapEU
  agreement No. 695989.
Total final energy demand (FED) in 2015
                 (EU28)
               High relevance: H&C about 50% of FED!

                                Heating and                 Space heating
     Non-H/C                      cooling                       27%
      50%                          50%          Process
                                                heating
                                                  16%

                                                                     Hot water
                                                                       4%
                                                Space     Process
                                                cooling   cooling    Other heating
                                                  1%        1%            1%

   This project has received funding from the
   European Union's Horizon 2020 research                                   www.heatroadmap.eu
   and innovation programme under grant                                       @HeatRoadmapEU
   agreement No. 695989.
H&C FED by end-use in 2015 (EU28)
                        Process            Space cooling
      Other heating
                        cooling                1%            2015:
                          3%
          3%
 Hot water                                         Process
                                                               High relevance
   8%                                              heating
                                                     32%       of space and
                                                               process heating;

                                                               Lower relevance
                                                               of cooling
             Space
             heating
              53%

      This project has received funding from the
      European Union's Horizon 2020 research                           www.heatroadmap.eu
      and innovation programme under grant                               @HeatRoadmapEU
      agreement No. 695989.
H&C FED by end-use and country (EU28,
               2015)
100%
                                                    Space cooling
90%
                                                    Process cooling
80%
                                                    Other heating
70%
                                                    Process heating
60%
                                                    Hot water
50%
                                                    Space heating
40%
30%                                                   •   Space heating and
20%                                                       process heating
10%                                                       important in all
 0%                                                       countries
                                                      •   Cooling important
                                                          in southern
                                                          countries

       This project has received funding from the
       European Union's Horizon 2020 research                         www.heatroadmap.eu
       and innovation programme under grant                             @HeatRoadmapEU
       agreement No. 695989.
Share of space heating in total FED for H&C

                                                  Space heating is
                                                  also relevant in
                                                  southern
                                                  countries!

     This project has received funding from the
     European Union's Horizon 2020 research                   www.heatroadmap.eu
     and innovation programme under grant                       @HeatRoadmapEU
     agreement No. 695989.
H&C FED by energy carrier in 2015 (EU28)

                    0%
               1%        0%
                                                    Gas                2015 shares FED:
        8%
               4%                                   Oil

                                                    Biomass
                                                                       • Fossil: 66%
  9%
                                                    Electricity        • RES: 13%
                                     42%            District heating

                                                    Coal
                                                                       • El+DH: 21%
 12%
                                                    Others (fossil)

                                                    Solar thermal

       12%                                          Heat pumps

                     12%                            Others (RES)

       This project has received funding from the
       European Union's Horizon 2020 research                                  www.heatroadmap.eu
       and innovation programme under grant                                      @HeatRoadmapEU
       agreement No. 695989.
H&C FED by energy carrier and country
              (EU28, 2015)
100%

90%
                                                     1600
                                                                                       Others (RES)       •   Energy carrier
                                                     1400                              Solar thermal          mix very
80%
                                                     1200
                                                                                       Heat pumps
                                                                                                              country specific
                                                                                       Biomass
                                                                                                          •

                                                            Total final energy [TWh]
70%
                                                                                       Electricity            Gas important
                                                     1000
60%
                                                                                       District heating       in most
50%                                                  800                               Others (fossil)        countries (less
40%
                                                     600
                                                                                       Oil                    in SE and FI)
30%
                                                     400
                                                                                       Coal
                                                                                       Gas
                                                                                                          •   Solar and heat
20%                                                                                    Total                  pumps still
10%
                                                     200                                                      marginal
 0%                                                  0
                                                                                                              almost
                United…

               Slovak…

                                                                                                              everywhere
               France

               Poland

              Sweden
               Finland
               Austria

               Greece

                 Malta
          Netherlands

            Denmark
                 Spain
                  Italy

             Portugal

               Ireland

               Croatia
            Lithuania

         Luxembourg
       Czech Republic

               Cyprus
                Latvia
            Germany

             Romania

             Bulgaria

             Slovenia
              Estonia
              Belgium

             Hungary

        This project has received funding from the
        European Union's Horizon 2020 research                                                                www.heatroadmap.eu
        and innovation programme under grant                                                                    @HeatRoadmapEU
        agreement No. 695989.
H&C FED by energy carrier (2015, EU28)

                     4000
                                                                                                            End‐uses use energy
                                                                                         Solar thermal      carriers differently:
                     3500                                                                Others (RES)       • Gas is important
                     3000
                                                                                         Others (fossil)        in both process
Final energy [TWh]

                                                                                         Oil                    and space
                     2500                                                                Heat pumps             heating
                     2000                                                                Gas                • Coal is important
                                                                                         Electricity
                                                                                                                in process
                     1500                                                                                       heating
                     1000
                                                                                         District heating
                                                                                         Coal
                                                                                                            • Biomass and
                                                                                                                district heating
                                                                                         Biomass                more in space
                      500
                                                                                                                heating
                        0
                             Process   Process Hot water Other       Space     Space
                             heating   cooling           heating     heating   cooling

                            This project has received funding from the
                            European Union's Horizon 2020 research                                             www.heatroadmap.eu
                            and innovation programme under grant                                                 @HeatRoadmapEU
                            agreement No. 695989.
H&C FED by sector and end-use (EU28,
               2015)
                     3000
                                                                        Space heating
                                                                                          End‐uses by sector:
                                                                        Space cooling     • Industry: >80%
                     2500
                                                                        Process heating
                                                                                             for process heat
                                                                        Process cooling
                                                                                          • Residential:
                                                                                             >75% for space
Final energy [TWh]

                     2000
                                                                        Hot water
                                                                                             heating
                                                                        Other heating
                     1500                                                                 • Tertiary: highest
                                                                                             share of cooling
                     1000
                                                                                             compared to
                                                                                             other sectors
                                                                                             (~10%)
                     500

                        0
                              Industry      Residential      Tertiary

                        This project has received funding from the
                        European Union's Horizon 2020 research                                       www.heatroadmap.eu
                        and innovation programme under grant                                           @HeatRoadmapEU
                        agreement No. 695989.
H&C FED by sector and energy carrier
                 (EU28, 2015)
100%                                                  Solar thermal      Energy carrier mix
                                                      Others (RES)
                                                                         varies by sector:
90%

80%
                                                                         • Industry:
                                                      Others (fossil)        highest share of
70%
                                                      Oil
                                                                             coal and other
60%
                                                                             fossil
50%
                                                      Heat pumps
                                                      (electric)
                                                                         • Residential:
                                                      Gas                    highest share of
40%                                                                          biomass
30%                                                   Electricity
                                                                         • Tertiary:
20%                                                   District heating       highest share of
                                                                             electricity and
10%                                                   Coal                   gas
 0%
         Industry       Residential        Tertiary   Biomass

        This project has received funding from the
        European Union's Horizon 2020 research                                        www.heatroadmap.eu
        and innovation programme under grant                                            @HeatRoadmapEU
        agreement No. 695989.
INDUSTRY SECTOR

  This project has received funding from the
  European Union's Horizon 2020 research       www.heatroadmap.eu
  and innovation programme under grant           @HeatRoadmapEU
  agreement No. 695989.
Industry FED for H&C by end-use
            (EU28, 2015)
  1%    1%
   1%        2%
                                      Process heating 500 °C      decarbonization)!
                          21%         Space heating

                                      Space cooling

                                      Process cooling
Industry sector by temperature and sub-
          sector (EU28, 2015)
                                      Very diverse structure in sub‐sectors!
                              600
                                                                     Process cooling 0-15 °C
                              500
  Final energy [TWh]

                                                                     Process cooling -30-0 °C
                              400                                    Process cooling 500 °C
                                                                     Process heating 200-500 °C
                                 0
                                                                     Process heating 100-200 °C
                                                                     Process heating
Industry FED H&C by energy carrier
                (EU28, 2015)
                 1% 0%
                                                                      Gas most important
                        9%
           11%                                     Biomass            energy carrier, but
                                                   Coal
                                                                      also high shares of
8%                                                 District heating
                                      17%                             coal.
                                                   Electricity
                                                   Gas
                                                   Oil

                                       8%          Others (fossil)
                                                   Others (RES)

     39%                         7%                Solar thermal

      This project has received funding from the
      European Union's Horizon 2020 research                                      www.heatroadmap.eu
      and innovation programme under grant                                          @HeatRoadmapEU
      agreement No. 695989.
Industry FED H&C by energy carrier and
                            sub-sector (EU28, 2015)
                      600
                                                                                            Distribution of
Final Energy [TWh]

                      500                                                Solar thermal
                      400                                                Others (RES)       energy carriers varies
                      300                                                Others (fossil)    by sub‐sector:
                      200                                                Oil
                      100                                                Gas                ‐ high share of
                        0                                                Electricity            biomass in pulp &
                                                                         District heating
                                                                         Coal
                                                                                                paper
                                                                         Biomass            ‐ high share of coal
                                                                                                in iron & steel

                                                  Achsentitel
                                                                                            ‐ other fossil fuels
                                                                                                (e.g. waste) high
                                                                                                shares in non‐
                                                                                                metallic minerals
                                                                                                (mainly cement)

                            This project has received funding from the
                            European Union's Horizon 2020 research                                    www.heatroadmap.eu
                            and innovation programme under grant                                        @HeatRoadmapEU
                            agreement No. 695989.
Industry FED by end-use and energy carrier
              (EU28, 2015)
                                                                                         Patterns:
                      1200

                      1000
                                                                      Solar thermal
                                                                                         • Coal for high
 Final energy [TWh]

                                                                      Others (RES)
                       800
                                                                      Others (fossil)       temperatures
                       600

                       400
                                                                      Oil
                                                                      Gas
                                                                                         • Biomass for
                       200
                                                                      Electricity           steam
                         0

                                                                                         • DH for low
                                                                      District heating
                                                                      Coal
                                                                      Biomass               temperatures

                         This project has received funding from the
                         European Union's Horizon 2020 research                               www.heatroadmap.eu
                         and innovation programme under grant                                   @HeatRoadmapEU
                         agreement No. 695989.
Industry: FED for H&C by country and
       energy carrier (EU28, 2015)
100%                                                 600
                                                                                Solar thermal
90%                                                                                                Huge
                                                                                Others (RES)
80%
                                                     500
                                                                                                   diversity
                                                                                Others (fossil)
70%
                                                     400
                                                                                                   across
                                                                                Oil

                                                           Final energy [TWh]
60%                                                                                                countries!
                                                                                Gas
50%                                                  300
                                                                                Electricity
40%

                                                     200                        District heating
30%
                                                                                Coal
20%
                                                     100
                                                                                Biomass
10%

                                                                                Total
 0%                                                  0
              Denmark
                 France

                 Poland

                Finland

               Sweden
                 Austria

                Greece

                   Malta
           Netherlands

       Czech Republic
                   Spain

                 Ireland
                Croatia
                    Italy

               Portugal

                Cyprus
              Lithuania

          Luxembourg
       Slovak Republic
              Romania

              Slovenia
                  Latvia

                Estonia
             Germany

       United Kingdom

               Belgium

              Hungary
               Bulgaria

        This project has received funding from the
        European Union's Horizon 2020 research                                                       www.heatroadmap.eu
        and innovation programme under grant                                                           @HeatRoadmapEU
        agreement No. 695989.
Share of biomass in industry FED

                                              High share of biomass in
                                              Nordic countries

 This project has received funding from the
 European Union's Horizon 2020 research                         www.heatroadmap.eu
 and innovation programme under grant                             @HeatRoadmapEU
 agreement No. 695989.
Industry: FED for H&C by country and end-
            use (EU28, 2015)
     100%                                          600
                                                                              Process cooling 0-15 °C
      90%
                                                   500                        Process cooling -30-0 °C
      80%
                                                                              Process cooling 500 °C
                                                   200                        Process heating 200-500 °C
      30%

      20%                                                                     Process heating 100-200 °C
                                                   100
      10%                                                                     Process heating  100°C!
      This project has received funding from the
      European Union's Horizon 2020 research                                                       www.heatroadmap.eu
      and innovation programme under grant                                                           @HeatRoadmapEU
      agreement No. 695989.
Industry: Energy carriers and end-uses
                                     (EU28, 2015)
•              Italy             Broad mix of
                                 industries                                                        •       Sweden
                                                                                                                    Large pulp & paper
                                                                                                                    industry

                           120                                                                       60
                                                                                             Solar                        Solar thermal
                                                                                             thermal 50

                                                                        Final energy [TWh]
                           100
    Final energy [TWh]

                                                                                             Others                       Others (RES)
                                                                                             (RES)40
                            80                                                               Others                       Others (fossil)
                                                                                             (fossil)30
                            60                                                               Oil                          Oil
                                                                                                     20
                            40                                                               Gas                          Gas
                                                                                                     10
                            20                                                               Electricity                  Electricity
                                                                                                      0                   District heating
                             0                                                               District
                                                                                             heating                      Coal
                                                                                             Coal
                                                                                                                          Biomass
                                                                                             Biomass

                           This project has received funding from the
                           European Union's Horizon 2020 research                                                       www.heatroadmap.eu
                           and innovation programme under grant                                                           @HeatRoadmapEU
                           agreement No. 695989.
Industry process heat
Industry process heat
Industry process heat
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

  This project has received funding from the
  European Union's Horizon 2020 research       www.heatroadmap.eu
  and innovation programme under grant           @HeatRoadmapEU
  agreement No. 695989.
Residential sector: FED for H&C by end-use
               (EU28, 2015)
                     1%                                          At almost 80%, space
                          7%                     Other heating
             15%                                                 heating most
                                                 Space heating
                                                                 important

                                                 Hot water

                                                 Space cooling

                           77%

    This project has received funding from the
    European Union's Horizon 2020 research                                      www.heatroadmap.eu
    and innovation programme under grant                                          @HeatRoadmapEU
    agreement No. 695989.
Residential sector: FED for H&C by end-use
        and country (EU28, 2015)
100%
 90%
                                                                Space cooling
                                                                Other heating
                                                                                 Space heating
 80%
 70%                                                            Hot water        dominant almost
 60%                                                            Space heating
 50%                                                                             everywhere
 40%
 30%                                                                             Cooling significant
 20%
 10%                                                                             only in southern
  0%
                                                                                 countries
                 France

                 Poland

                 Austria

                   Malta
           Netherlands

                Finland
               Sweden

              Denmark
                Greece
                    Italy

                   Spain

                 Ireland
                Croatia
       Slovak Republic

              Lithuania

               Portugal
          Luxembourg
                Cyprus
       Czech Republic
             Germany

               Bulgaria

                  Latvia
              Slovenia
                Estonia
       United Kingdom

               Belgium

              Romania

              Hungary

                                                                                 Hot water
                                                                                 relatively similar
                                                     * Other heating = cooking   across countries

        This project has received funding from the
        European Union's Horizon 2020 research                                          www.heatroadmap.eu
        and innovation programme under grant                                              @HeatRoadmapEU
        agreement No. 695989.
Space heating as share of residential
       sector’s FED for H&C
                                              Space heating is
                                              also relevant in
                                              southern
                                              countries!

 This project has received funding from the
 European Union's Horizon 2020 research                          www.heatroadmap.eu
 and innovation programme under grant                              @HeatRoadmapEU
 agreement No. 695989.
Residential sector: FED for H&C by energy
          carrier (EU28, 2015)
              1%    1%                                              •   Natural gas most
                                                 Gas
               4%                                                       important: >40%
                                                                    •
         9%                                      Biomass
                                                                        Biomass second
                                                 Oil
                                                                        highest share: 16%
                                                 Electricity
  12%                                 43%

                                                 District heating
                                                                    •   Heat pumps and
                                                                        solar thermal still
                                                 Coal
   14%
                                                                        marginal (
Residential sector: FED for H&C by energy
    carrier and country (EU28, 2015)
100%                                                700
 90%
                                                    600
                                                                          Solar thermal      Huge
 80%
                                                    500
                                                                          Oil                diversity
 70%

                                                          FED H&C [TWh]
 60%
                                                                          Heat pumps         across
                                                    400
 50%                                                                      Gas                countries
 40%                                                300
                                                                          Electricity
 30%                                                200
 20%                                                                      District heating
                                                    100
 10%                                                                      Coal
 0%                                                 0
                                                                          Biomass
               Swede n

               Por tug al
               Hunga ry
                   Spa in
             Ger ma ny

              Sloven ia

                   Malta
           Netherland s

       Cze ch Repub lic

                  Latvia
              Lithuan ia

          Luxembou rg
       United Kingdo m
                 France

                 Pola nd

                 Austria

                Cyp rus
                Croatia

                Esto nia
               Belg ium

               Bulg aria
              Romania

              Denmark

       Slovak Re public
                 Ireland
                    Italy

                Finland
                Gre ece

                                                                          Total

       This project has received funding from the
       European Union's Horizon 2020 research                                                www.heatroadmap.eu
       and innovation programme under grant                                                    @HeatRoadmapEU
       agreement No. 695989.
Residential sector: FED for H&C by
single/multi-family house in 2015 (EU28)
                     1600
                                                                                                               SFH twice as
                     1400

                     1200                                                                   Solar thermal
                                                                                                               relevant as
Final energy [TWh]

                     1000                                                                   Oil                multi‐family
                                                                                            Heat pumps
                      800
                                                                                            Gas                houses
                      600                                                                   Electricity

                      400                                                                   District heating
                                                                                            Coal
                      200
                                                                                            Biomass
                        0
                             Other    Space     Hot water   Space     Hot water   Space
                            heating   cooling     SFH       heating     MFH       heating
                                                             SFH                   MFH

                            This project has received funding from the
                            European Union's Horizon 2020 research                                                www.heatroadmap.eu
                            and innovation programme under grant                                                    @HeatRoadmapEU
                            agreement No. 695989.
Share of SFH in total space heating
          demand (2015)

                                             Importance of SFH
                                               varies heavily by
                                               member state!

This project has received funding from the
European Union's Horizon 2020 research                  www.heatroadmap.eu
and innovation programme under grant                      @HeatRoadmapEU
agreement No. 695989.
TERTIARY SECTOR

  This project has received funding from the
  European Union's Horizon 2020 research       www.heatroadmap.eu
  and innovation programme under grant           @HeatRoadmapEU
  agreement No. 695989.
Tertiary sector: FED for H&C by end-use
              (EU28, 2015)
                                                                 Space
               8%     5%
                             6%
                                               Process heating   heating most
                                  4%           Process cooling   important
                                               Space cooling

                                               Space heating

                                               Hot water

            77%

  This project has received funding from the
  European Union's Horizon 2020 research                                www.heatroadmap.eu
  and innovation programme under grant                                    @HeatRoadmapEU
  agreement No. 695989.
Tertiary sector: FED for H&C by sub-sector
       and end-use in 2015 (EU28)

                      300
                                                                   Process heating
                      250
 Final energy [TWh]

                                                                   Process cooling
                      200
                                                                   Space cooling
                      150                                          Space heating
                      100                                          Hot water
                       50

                        0                                          Wholesale and
                                                                   retail most
                                                                   important sub‐
                                                                   sector, but all
                                                                   relevant.

                      This project has received funding from the
                      European Union's Horizon 2020 research                         www.heatroadmap.eu
                      and innovation programme under grant                             @HeatRoadmapEU
                      agreement No. 695989.
Tertiary sector: FED for H&C by end-use
        and country (EU28, 2015)
100%                                                350
                                                                                        Process heating
90%
                                                    300

                                                          Final energy for H&C [TWh]
80%                                                                                     Process cooling

70%                                                 250
                                                                                        Space cooling
60%
                                                    200
                                                                                        Space heating
50%
                                                    150                                 Hot water
40%
30%                                                 100                                 Total heating and
20%                                                                                     cooling
                                                    50
10%
 0%                                                 0
                                                                                       Space heating important
                                                                                       in all countries
                                                                                       Southern countries have
                                                                                       substantial share of
                                                                                       space cooling
       This project has received funding from the
       European Union's Horizon 2020 research                                                               www.heatroadmap.eu
       and innovation programme under grant                                                                   @HeatRoadmapEU
       agreement No. 695989.
Tertiary sector: FED for H&C by energy
          carrier (EU28, 2015)
             1%    0%
       2%    1%    0%
                                               Gas
                                                                  Natural gas
            5%                                 Electricity        dominant at >45%
                                               Oil
   10%
                                               District heating

                              46%              Biomass

 16%
                                               Solar thermal      Share of electricity
                                               Coal
                                               Heat pumps
                                                                  driven by cooling
            19%
                                               Others (fossil)
                                                                  and process
                                               Others (RES)
                                                                  heating

  This project has received funding from the
  European Union's Horizon 2020 research                                        www.heatroadmap.eu
  and innovation programme under grant                                            @HeatRoadmapEU
  agreement No. 695989.
Tertiary sector: FED for H&C by energy
         carrier and country (EU28, 2015)
100%                                                  Solar thermal      Huge
90%
80%
                                                      Heat pumps         diversity
70%                                                   Biomass
60%                                                   District heating
                                                                         across
50%
                                                      Electricity        countries
40%
30%                                                   Coal
20%                                                   Oil
10%
                                                      Gas
 0%
                 France

                 Poland

               Sweden
                 Austria
                Finland

              Denmark

                Greece

                   Malta
           Netherlands
                    Italy

                   Spain

                 Ireland

                Croatia
              Lithuania
          Luxembourg

                Cyprus
               Portugal
       Czech Republic

       Slovak Republic
             Germany

              Hungary
              Romania

               Bulgaria
                  Latvia

              Slovenia
                Estonia
       United Kingdom

               Belgium

         This project has received funding from the
         European Union's Horizon 2020 research                          www.heatroadmap.eu
         and innovation programme under grant                              @HeatRoadmapEU
         agreement No. 695989.
Share of district heating in tertiary sector’s
                FED for H&C
                                                  •   Very high shares in Nordic
                                                      countries
                                                  •   Average shares in most
                                                      eastern countries
                                                  •   Low shares in individual
                                                      countries such as UK,
                                                      Ireland, Spain, Portugal,
                                                      Italy

     This project has received funding from the
     European Union's Horizon 2020 research                            www.heatroadmap.eu
     and innovation programme under grant                                @HeatRoadmapEU
     agreement No. 695989.
COOLING

  This project has received funding from the
  European Union's Horizon 2020 research       www.heatroadmap.eu
  and innovation programme under grant           @HeatRoadmapEU
  agreement No. 695989.
FED for cooling by end-use and country
                (2015)
            40                                   •       Space cooling relevant in southern
            35                                           countries and marginal in northern
            30                                           countries
            25
                                                 •       Process cooling more evenly
 TWh/year

            20
                                                         distributed across climate regions
            15
            10
             5
             0
                          Greece
                           France

                             Malta
                           Poland

                           Austria
                     Netherlands

                          Finland
                         Sweden

                        Denmark
                              Italy
                             Spain

                          Cyprus

                          Croatia

                    Luxembourg

                           Ireland
                         Portugal

                 Slovak Republic

                        Lithuania
                 Czech Republic
                       Germany

                         Belgium
                        Romania
                         Bulgaria

                        Hungary

                        Slovenia

                            Latvia
                          Estonia
                 United Kingdom

                                            Process cooling    Space cooling

            This project has received funding from the
            European Union's Horizon 2020 research                                www.heatroadmap.eu
            and innovation programme under grant                                    @HeatRoadmapEU
            agreement No. 695989.
Share of total cooled floor area by country

100,0%
                                                          •   Southern countries
 90,0%                                                        have higher shares
                                                          •
 80,0%
 70,0%                                                        Service sector has
 60,0%
 50,0%
                                                              higher shares than
 40,0%                                                        residential sector
                                                          •
 30,0%
 20,0%                                                        Residential buildings
 10,0%
  0,0%
                                                              in northern
                                                              European countries
                                                              have negligible
                                                              shares
                   Residential sector   Tertiary sector
                                                          •   Huge future growth
                                                              in demand expected

         This project has received funding from the
         European Union's Horizon 2020 research                          www.heatroadmap.eu
         and innovation programme under grant                              @HeatRoadmapEU
         agreement No. 695989.
MAIN CONCLUSIONS

  This project has received funding from the
  European Union's Horizon 2020 research       www.heatroadmap.eu
  and innovation programme under grant           @HeatRoadmapEU
  agreement No. 695989.
Main conclusions 2015

•   H&C is very important with ~50% of EU28 FED
•   Very diverse composition of energy carriers for H&C supply
    across countries. Still:
     •   Gas is the most dominant fuel in EU28 and in most countries for
         H&C.
     •   Fossil fuels account for >65% in EU28 FED for H&C
     •   Of RES, only biomass is used substantially; solar thermal,
         geothermal and heat pumps are still marginal in almost every
         country

     This project has received funding from the
     European Union's Horizon 2020 research                       www.heatroadmap.eu
     and innovation programme under grant                           @HeatRoadmapEU
     agreement No. 695989.
Main conclusions 2015

•   Space heating and process heating most relevant end-uses.
•   Space heating: SFH twice as important as MFHs as an EU28 average
•   Process heating: Process heat >200°C accounts for ~50% of industrial
    H&C FED, and represents a challenge when switching to RES
•   Cooling accounts for ~2% of total FED for H&C and currently has low
    shares in most countries but the potential to grow strongly in future

     This project has received funding from the
     European Union's Horizon 2020 research                     www.heatroadmap.eu
     and innovation programme under grant                         @HeatRoadmapEU
     agreement No. 695989.
ABBREVIATIONS

  This project has received funding from the
  European Union's Horizon 2020 research       www.heatroadmap.eu
  and innovation programme under grant           @HeatRoadmapEU
  agreement No. 695989.
Abbreviations

•   FED: Final energy demand
•   CHP: Combined heat and power
•   HRE: Heat Roadmap Europe
•   ICG: Internal combustion engine
•   EU: European Union
•   SFH: Single-family houses
•   MFH: Multi-family houses
     This project has received funding from the
     European Union's Horizon 2020 research       www.heatroadmap.eu
     and innovation programme under grant           @HeatRoadmapEU
     agreement No. 695989.
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