Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment Ormond Station Development Summary
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Proposed Planning Scheme
Amendment
Ormond Station Development
Statement of Evidence of Blair Warman
Evidence Statement prepared for
Planning Panels Victoria
February 2017
Summary
Contents. 1. Professional Details ................................................................................................................. 2
2. Summary of Opinions ............................................................................................................ 5
3. Background................................................................................................................................. 8
4. Review of Deep End Services Report ............................................................................. 9
5. Alternative Development Opportunities ..................................................................... 18
6. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 20
7. Declaration ................................................................................................................................ 22
8. Curriculum Vitae ..................................................................................................................... 23
9. Appendix 1 Peer Review ..................................................................................................... 26Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development Evidence Statement of Blair Warman PAGE 1
1. Professional Details
Name and Address:
Blair Warman
39 St James Parade
Elsternwick
Victoria 3185
blair@bwec.com.au
Qualifications
Bachelor of Economics (University of Queensland)
Graduate Diploma of Agricultural Economics (University of Queensland)
Graduate Diploma of Planning and Design (University of Melbourne)
Relevant Experience
Consultant: Blair Warman Economics - July 2016 – present
Executive - Urban Charter Keck Cramer (Urban Economics and Policy) - 1999-2007 and 2008-2016
Associated - Director Jones Land LaSalle - 2007-2008
Economist - Ratio Consultants - 1997-1999
Area of Expertise
My areas of expertise relate to:
Economic land use planning (activity centre, urban renewal and industrial land use
strategies, structure planning).
Economic development assessments.
Property market analysis.
Demographic and spatial analysis.
Economic impact assessments.
Development site opportunity assessments.
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 2Instructions
1.1 This matter relates to the proposed amendment to the Glen Eira Planning Scheme to
facilitate mixed use development at Ormond Station through the rezoning of the
nominated site to a Comprehensive Development Zone.
1.2 Draft Schedule 1 to the Comprehensive Development Zone proposes the following land
uses be permitted ‘as of right’:
a) Shop uses with a combined leasable floor area up to 6,900 sqm.
b) Office uses with a combined leasable area of not more than 500 sqm.
c) Restricted recreational facility with a maximum leasable floor area of 500 sqm.
1.3 The Amendment is based upon an indicative development plan prepared by Deal
Corporation and supporting studies including an economic assessment prepared by Deep
End Services titled ‘North Road, Ormond, Level Crossing Removal - Retail Need and
Economic Impact Assessment’, dated 5 August 2016.
1.4 I have been instructed by HWL Ebsworth Lawyers, acting on behalf of the City of Glen Eira.
1.5 My Instructions are to:
a) Review the amendment documentation and in particular the proposed schedule to the
Comprehensive Development Zone as it relates to Food and Drink premises and Shop
uses;
b) Peer Review the Retail Needs and Economic Impact Assessment report prepared by
Deep End Services;
c) Prepare evidence on any potential ‘economic impacts’ and ’retail need’ effects of the
proposed amendment on the existing Ormond Neighbourhood Activity Centre and on
surrounding activity centres; and
d) Provide opinions on the appropriateness of the proposed controls and Scheme changes
and any suggested modifications to the proposed amendment.
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 3Preparation
1.6 I have prepared this report and undertaken the supporting analysis without assistance.
1.7 In preparing this statement I have:
a) Reviewed the Retail Needs and Economic Impact Assessment report prepared by Deep
End Services.
b) Visited the subject site, Ormond activity centre and other activity centres within the
surrounding area.
c) Reviewed other data and information sources as required.
d) Presented a summary of my opinions.
e) Prepared a Peer Review, which is appended to this this evidence.
Reports Reviewed
1.8 In preparing this evidence, I have considered the following documents:
North Road Ormond Level Crossing Removal: Retail Need and Economic Impact
Assessment, Deep End Service August 2016
Proposed Amendment: Draft planning controls and supporting information
Glen Eira Planning Scheme
Glen Eira Population Forecasts, Id Consultants
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 42. Summary of Opinions
2.1 I have reviewed the Retail Need and Economic Impact Assessment prepared by Deep End
Services with respect to the proposed development upon the subject site. It is my view that
the assessment:
Understates the level of retail and supermarket provision within the area surrounding
Ormond Station;
Overstates the current turnover of food and non-food retailers within existing activity
centres; and
Under-estimates the potential economic impacts upon existing centres.
2.2 The defined catchment area for the proposed retail development is considered reasonable
for the purpose of identifying the source of sales generated by the centre. However,
measuring existing floorspace provision based upon this area, results in the exclusion of a
number of adjacent supermarkets and nearby centres that service the retail needs of
households within the catchment.
2.3 It is my opinion that the exclusion of these supermarket floor space and total retail
floorspace results in an under-estimation of floorspace provision within the area
surrounding Ormond Station. When this floorspace is included, I estimate that the provision
of both retail and supermarket floorspace is consistent with the metropolitan averages
identified by Deep End.
2.4 The assessment estimates current sales for existing centres as a base for measuring the
relative impact of the expected loss of sales, due to the proposed development. It is my
view that current sales in these centres are over-stated by Deep End, resulting in an under-
estimation of potential impacts. This is due to
the inclusion by Deep End of non-retail floorspace occupied by ‘food catering’ activities
(cafes, restaurants and takeaway food) in their assessment, noting that these are
defined as ‘non-retail’ activities by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and unlikely to
experience any impact from the proposed development; and
assumed per square metre trading levels being consistent with that of privately
managed shopping centres rather than strip retailers.
2.5 I have estimated retail food sales within the Bentleigh and Ormond Activity Centres based
upon indicative total sales for full-line supermarkets and specialty retailers in strip centres.
Based upon this measure, Deep End’s projected loss in sales at Bentleigh equates to a 9.8%
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 5impact. For Ormond, I estimate the potential impact upon retail food sales to be a 14.6%
loss in projected sales.
2.6 It is my opinion that the turnover of non-food retailers within the Bentleigh Activity Centre
would be around half that estimated by Deep End (Table 6), given that most are non-
national retailers and have shorter trading hours than shopping centre retailers. In addition,
these retailers face strong competition from Southland and Chadstone shopping centres,
Nepean Highway bulky goods retailers, and the Moorabbin Airport DFO.
2.7 I have calculated that the relative economic impact of Deep End’s projected loss in non-
food sales at Bentleigh would be approximately 12% based upon this lower sales base.
2.8 A new retail centre has been proposed for the Virginia Park site on the corner of North
Road and East Boundary Road. It is my view that this site should be given consideration
given its accessibility and distance from existing activity centres. This may potentially better
service the retail needs of households with reduced impact upon existing centres.
2.9 Given that the proposed development may result in potentially excessive impacts upon
existing centres, it is my view that alternative retail formats should also be considered,
instead of the proposed 4,100 sqm supermarket. These may include:
A contemporary independent supermarket of up to 2,500 sqm, complemented by a
number of specialty retailers; or
An Aldi supermarket of approximately 1,500 sqm, also complemented by specialty
retailers.
2.10 It is my view that a supermarket and specialty stores with a total of up to 3,000 sqm would
provide a balance between increasing the retail choices available to local households,
strengthening the role of the Ormond Activity Centre and ensuring the ongoing
performance and function of existing centres.
2.11 New and innovative retailing should however be encouraged upon the subject site where it
is shown to address an unmet demand within the municipality, and does not unreasonably
impact upon existing centres. Examples of this may range from larger format retailing
through to more intensive ‘lifestyle retailing’.
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 62.12 Having regard to the above, it is my view that the proposed Amendment should provide
for:
3,000 sqm of retail floorspace ‘as of right’ to allow a smaller format supermarket and
specialty retailers; and
the opportunity for additional retail floorspace subject to a Planning Permit, where it
is demonstrated that a development proposal will:
1. support innovative retail activities,
2. address currently unmet demand
3. contribute to the diversity of retailing opportunities within Glen Eira; and
4. not unreasonably impact upon existing retailers and centres.
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 73. Background
3.1 The recent removal of the level crossing at Ormond Station, and associated decking over
the railway line, provides new transit oriented development opportunities. This includes new
residential and commercial land uses, that may potentially enhance the overall amenity and
livability of the Ormond activity centre.
3.2 The proposed Amendment seeks to rezone the subject site to a Comprehensive
Development Zone, to allow a mixture of retail, residential, commercial and recreational
uses.
3.3 Deep End’s assessment has been based upon the indicative retail floor areas shown in
Figure 1 below.
Figure 1: Proposed Development – Approximate Retail Floor Areas
Approximate
Land Use Floorarea (sqm)
Supermarket 4,100
Take away food premises 250
Other food and drink premises 550
Other shop* 2,000
Total 6,900
Allocated as:
Food 5,100
Non-food 1,800
Total 6,900
Source: Deep End Services
* Deep End assumes ‘other shop’ to be 10% food and 90% non-food
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 84. Review of Deep End Services Report
4.1 Key Findings
The key conclusions of the Deep End report are that:
a) Retail and supermarket floorspace provision within the catchment are very low
compared to the Melbourne average.
b) The proposed development will service a catchment area population of 50,988 by 2022
when the centre becomes operational.
c) Retail sales are projected to be $67.4 million in 2021/22 with the centres attracting
5.4% of household spending from within the catchment area
d) The impact upon retail sales within existing activity centres will be no more than 6.1%,
and no centre will be undermined by the development.
e) The proposed level of retail floorspace will support 285 direct and indirect full-time
equivalent jobs.
f) The proposed development will reduce the need for travel out of the local area to
access full-line supermarkets.
g) The surrounding retail precinct will be revitalised by the proposed development
attracting additional customers to the area.
4.2 Approach
The broad approach adopted by Deep End is consistent with that applied by retail analysts and
comprises:
a) Defining a catchment area for the proposed retail centre, for which future population
and household retail expenditure levels are forecast.
b) Identifying the existing supply of retail floorspace within the catchment area, and
estimating current and future retail sales for each centre.
c) Analysing current per capita supermarket floorspace provision, and accessibility to
existing full-line supermarkets.
d) Assessing the economic impacts of the proposed development upon existing centres
based upon the forecast redistribution of retail sales, relative to the level of retail sales
that would otherwise have been achieved.
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 9e) Assessing the benefits to the local community of the proposed development through
the creation of employment opportunities.
Comments
4.3 Catchment Area:
1. The catchment area defined by Deep End is an appropriate representation of the area from
which the proposed centre would attract the majority of retail sales.
4.4 Catchment Area Population:
2. Deep End’s projected population growth rate for the defined catchment is generally
consistent with that projected by Id Consultants for the suburbs of Ormond and McKinnon.
4.5 Retail Spending:
3. Retail spending estimates have been based upon industry recognised data sourced from
Market Data Systems (Marketinfo). The projected growth in spending is consistent with
forecast population growth for the catchment and recent trends in per capita spending at a
state level.
4.6 Ormond Activity Centre Performance
4. Deep End suggests on page 25 of their report that the Ormond Activity Centre is under-
performing, due to the lack of an anchor tenant and an identified vacancy rate of 9.3% when
surveyed in late 2015.
5. Interestingly, as part of their 2014 retail impact assessment for the nearby Virginia Park site,
Deep End concluded that ‘notwithstanding its elongated length, the rail crossing and lower
levels of ambience, the centre’s vacancy rate is still a relatively healthy 6% '. 1
6. It is my view that the centre is performing well as a retail location, with a reasonably strong
mix of core retailers and services concentrated on the northern side of North Road and east
1 Deep End Services, Virginia Park Retail Impact Assessment – June 2014, p.30
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 10of the railway line. The exposure and accessibility of the centre compensates for the absence
of a full-line supermarket.
7. Google Street View images taken at the same time of Deep End’s survey indicate that all the
identified vacancies were at least 240 metres from the IGA supermarket, and therefore not
within the retail core. When I inspected the centre in December 2016, there was only one
vacancy on the western periphery of the centre.
4.7 Retail and Supermarket Provision
8. Deep End indicates that the provision of retail floorspace within the catchment area is only
0.84 sqm per person, compared to 2.3 sqm for Melbourne.
9. Extending the catchment area to include both sides of Glen Huntly and Centre Roads would,
include two additional Woolworths supermarkets, and increase this measure to 1.21 sqm per
person. Residents also have convenient access to both Chadstone and Southland Shopping
Centres which have a combined floor area of 283,474 sqm. Including these centres would
increase the provision rate to 7.2 sqm per person, which is three times the metropolitan
average.
10. The provision of supermarket floorspace within the catchment area is identified by Deep End
to be 0.11 sqm per person, compared to the metropolitan average of 0.32 sqm.
11. Including supermarkets at Glen Huntly, Bentleigh and Carnegie, which are all immediately
adjacent to, or within walking distance of the catchment, would increase the supermarket
floorspace provision rate to 0.37 sqm per person, which is above the metropolitan average.
12. Measuring supermarket floorspace provision within the shaded area shown in the following
figure, and excluding full-line supermarkets at Caulfield Plaza and the Moorabbin Activity
Centre, indicates there to be 0.35 sqm per resident. This is also above the metropolitan
provision rate of 0.32 sqm per person identified by Deep End.
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 1113. Given that inner city locations offer strip retailing, any comparison of supermarket floorspace
across areas, or with a metropolitan average, should take account of differences in retailing
formats across inner, middle and outer suburban locations. For example, strip retail centres
within Glen Eira and other inner metropolitan locations offer a wider choice of ‘non-
supermarket’ food and grocery shopping opportunities, which reduces their reliance upon
supermarkets.
14. In summary, it is my view that Deep End’s exclusion of supermarkets at Glenhuntly, Bentleigh
and Carnegie results in an under-estimation of the level of retail and supermarket floorspace
within the catchment area. My calculations indicate that the provision of supermarket
floorspace within the area surrounding Ormond Station, is consistent with the metropolitan
average of 0.32 sqm per person identified by Deep End.
4.8 Current Trading Levels
15. Deep End have estimated current trading levels for centres in Section 6.4 of their report,
based upon measured retail floorspace and assumed trading levels per square metre.
16. Deep End’s measurement of retail floorspace includes food catering activities (cafes,
restaurants, takeaway food), which are not classified as retail activities by the ABS, and
therefore inflates the amount of retail floorspace in existing centres.
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 1217. The trading level per square metre assumed by Deep End for the Bentleigh Activity Centre is
$10,088 per sqm which is comparable to Australia’s top performing sub-regional shopping
centres. Chirnside Park Shopping Centre, one of Victoria’s top performing sub-regional
centres, achieved an overall trading level of $7,195 per sqm, with specialty stores achieving
sales of $11,490 per sqm in 2015/16.
18. It is my view that the trading level per square metre assumed by Deep End is excessively
high given that:
Suburban strip retail centres typically trade at levels well below privately operated
shopping centres, where the retail mix and selection of retailers is managed to maximise
turnover levels.
Retail rents within suburban centres such as Bentleigh are considerably less than in
privately managed centres, reflecting the reduced turnover opportunities and profitability
of businesses located in these centres.
The supply of car spaces in centres such as Bentleigh is less than half that of privately
operated shopping centres with similar turnover levels.
19. Deep End estimates that retail sales for Bentleigh Activity Centre in 2015/16 were $285.9
million. I have compared this figure to the level of household expenditure generated within
the surrounding suburbs of Bentleigh, Bentleigh East, Ormond and McKinnon. Through
applying Deep End’s per capita retail expenditure estimate for the catchment of the
proposed centre ($15,466) to the 2011 population of these suburbs, indicates the total
available household retail expenditure for these four suburbs to be $837 million. This
indicates that the Bentleigh Activity Centre would have to capture 34% of available
household expenditure. By comparison, Deep End forecasts that the proposed development
at Ormond Station will capture only 5.4%. Similarly Southland Shopping Centre only captures
10% of household expenditure within its catchment.
20. It is my view that the level of sales within the Bentleigh Activity Centre would not equate to
this share of household spending within its catchment, and that Deep End have over-
estimated the current level of sales within the centre.
4.9 Economic Impact
21. The broad methodology adopted by Deep End for assessing economic impacts consists of
firstly projecting sales for the proposed development, and then forecasting the associated
redistribution of sales from other centres. The economic impact upon individual centres is
calculated to be the loss of sales as a percentage of the estimated level of retail sales that
would have otherwise been achieved.
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 13Treatment of Food Catering
22. There are inconsistencies in Deep End’s treatment of ‘Food Catering’ (takeaway food, dining
in) within the report.
23. In Section 6.4 (Table 6), retail sales in existing centres are estimated based on a single food
classification which includes ‘food catering’.
24. Section 8.1 (Table 9) indicates the projected decline in ‘food’ sales at existing centres, which
will be redistributed to the proposed centre. Summing the projected decline for each centre
gives a total of $50.4 million. Referring to the projected sales for the proposed centre shown
in the table on page 33, indicates that this corresponds to the sum of supermarket sales
($46.3 mill.) and other food and drink premises’ sales ($4.0 mill.). ‘Take away food premises’
and ‘other food shops’ have not been included.
25. This inconsistency in the treatment of food catering activities results in an inflation of the
estimated sales at existing centres, and as a result an under-estimation of relative economic
impacts.
26. The grouping of food catering with supermarkets and other food retailers is inconsistent with
accepted industry classifications. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) specifically classifies
‘cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services’ as being within the ‘Accommodation and
Food Services’ industry, and not ‘Retail Trade’. This reflects the view of the ABS that there are
key differences between these activities with respect to the nature of their operations. This is
also reflected in the ability for food catering activities to locate in isolation from retail
activities, and operate outside of normal retail trading hours.
Bentleigh Activity Centre
27. I undertook a land use survey of the Bentleigh Activity Centre in December 2016. This
identified 49 food catering businesses and 30 fresh food retailers, together with the three
major supermarkets in the centre.
28. Food retailers in suburban strip centres average sales of around $10,000 per week or
$520,000 per annum based upon businesses currently for sale in comparable locations.
Therefore the 30 food retailers within the Bentleigh activity centre would be expected to
generate combined sales of approximately $15 million annually.
29. Assuming the average industry turnover rate of $45 million per annum for each of the two
full line supermarkets, and $20 million per annum for the Aldi store, supermarket sales within
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 14the Bentleigh Activity Centre are currently estimated to be around $110 million. Combined
with other food retailers, total annual retail food sales within the Bentleigh Activity Centre
would currently be approximately $125 million. This would be expected to increase to $160
million by 2021/22 if the annual growth rate adopted by Deep End is applied.
30. Deep End’s projected $15.7 million reduction in retail food sales for the Bentleigh Activity
Centre following the opening of the proposed centre, therefore represents a 9.8% impact
upon supermarkets and other food retailers within the centre.
31. As Planning Panels are generally concerned about potential impacts exceeding 10%, it is my
view that a more detailed assessment of the activity centre network is warranted. This view is
reinforced by the potential for future retail development upon the Virginia Park site.
32. The location of the Virginia Park site relative to existing activity centres, and accessibility via
both North and East Boundary Roads, suggests that it may be potentially better placed to
address any retail needs of households, without excessively impacting upon existing centres.
Ormond Activity Centre
33. Food retailers within the Ormond Activity Centre are an IGA supermarket, a small grocer, two
bakeries, a greengrocer and a liquor store. I estimate that the supermarket would generate
sales of less than $10 million per annum, and the remaining retailers would have combined
sales of a few million dollars. Total retail food sales would be expected to increase to around
$15 million by 2021/22.
34. Deep End forecast that $2.2 million worth of sales will be diverted to the proposed centre,
which equates to an impact of 14.6%, compared to only 6% projected by Deep End. As this
significantly exceeds the 10% benchmark for assessing economic impacts, it is my view that
retailers within this centre may become unsustainable and forced to close.
35. The format of the proposed retail development provides no direct linkage to the existing
retail core of the Ormond Activity Centre to the east. This limit any opportunities for existing
retailers to gain exposure to visitors to the proposed centre, resulting in two separate retail
precincts.
36. A local example of where this has occurred is within the Highett Activity Centre following the
development of a new Woolworths supermarket on the adjacent CSIRO site in 2013, which
are separated by a railway crossing. This has coincided with the closure of seven businesses
being a pharmacy, greengrocer, delicatessen, newsagent, bakery, a small grocery store and a
convenience store, of which only the pharmacy relocated to the new centre. As a result, local
residents’ only option for purchasing fresh food is the Woolworths supermarket.
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 15Non-Food Retailing
37. As already indicated, Deep End’s assumed trading levels for existing centres appear
excessively high, and more in line with a privately managed shopping centres than a
traditional strip retail centre.
38. I would expect trading levels for non-food retailers within the Bentleigh Activity Centre to be
in the order of $3,000-$4,000 per sqm given that most are not national retailers, and do not
trade seven days per week as is the case in regional and sub-regional shopping centres.
Similarly, the centre faces strong competition from Chadstone and Southland Shopping
Centres, Moorabbin Airport DFO, and Nepean Highway bulky goods retailers.
39. Non-food sales within the Bentleigh Activity Centre are therefore estimated to be around half
that identified by Deep End. Assuming the redistribution of non-food sales forecast by Deep
End is correct, the percentage economic impact of the proposed development upon non-
food sales with Bentleigh Activity Centre, would be in the order of 12% rather than 5.8%.
40. It is my opinion that this warrants further investigation into Glen Eira’s network of activity
centres, and measures that would result in a reduction in the potential impacts upon non-
food retailers within existing centres.
Proposed East Village Development
41. Existing centres may also be impacted by the proposed East Village development, also known
as Virginia Park. Deep End’s 2014 assessment of this development identified the potential for
two supermarkets to be supported.2 Virginia Park already includes a significant parcel of
Commercial 1 zoned land which may accommodate a new full-line supermarket without the
need for a rezoning.
42. Deep End has not considered the potential impacts of the East Village development
proceeding, as they do not expect this to occur before the proposed Ormond Station
development.
43. Deep End’s 2014 assessment of the Virginia Park site identified a number of attributes that
would make it a more appropriate location for a new centre including:
‘The arterial road and local street network around site providing access to a significant
population base within a short distance or drive-time’.
2 Deep End (2014), Virginia Park, Bentleigh East – Neighbourhood Activity Centre Retail Impact Assessment.
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 16 The population within 5 minutes drive of the site being 50,880 people in 2011, which is
more than that of the entire catchment area of the proposed Ormond Station
Development in 2011 (44,258).
The Bentleigh Activity Centre being located on the outer edge of the centre’s secondary
catchment as opposed to being within the primary catchment of the proposed Ormond
Station development.
The East Bentleigh Activity Centre being the only existing centre within the centre’s
primary catchment, and then being located on the fringe of that catchment. This
compares to the Ormond Activity Centre being co-located with the proposed Ormond
Station development.
44. It is my view that the potential for retail development on the Virginia Park site should be
given greater consideration due to:
The strategic benefits of the site, given its greater accessibility, and capacity to service a
larger population, and support a larger amount of retail floorspace as earlier identified by
Deep End;
The greater distance from existing centres, with the Bentleigh Activity Centre being
approximately 2 km to the south-west, and 1.6 km from Ormond Station.
The more favourable location of existing centres limiting the extent of any economic
impacts.
The additional economic impacts upon existing activity centres should redevelopment
proceed upon both sites.
4.10 Net Community Benefit
Permanent Employment Creation
45. Retail sales generated by the proposed development will largely result from the redistribution
of sales from other centres within the catchment. Similarly, retail employment will also be
generated through the redistribution from these centres. Therefore, it is my view that there is
unlikely to be any significant combined net increase in ongoing employment across the
proposed development and other centres.
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 175. Alternative Development Opportunities
5.1 Supermarket Format
46. Given the identified potential for the economic impact of the proposed development upon
retailers within the Bentleigh and Ormond activity centres to exceed 10%, I have considered
alternative forms of retail development that may be appropriate.
47. A smaller format supermarket upon the subject site would
generate a lower level of turnover, and therefore have a reduced impact upon existing
centres and retailers;
provide opportunities for existing and additional complementary specialty retailers; and
potentially provide more convenient top-up shopping opportunities for passing trade.
48. A contemporary independent supermarket may range up to around 2,500 sqm, being a
similar size to the refurbished Woolworths in Glen Huntly.
49. Alternatively, an Aldi supermarket may be appropriate given the opportunity to service
residents along the North Road corridor. Similarly, the Bentleigh Aldi is the only store
between Princes Highway to the north and Southland Shopping Centre to the south where
other stores are located. This represents a distance of over 8 km.
5.2 East Village Development
50. The East Village Precinct is located near the corner of North Road and East Boundary Road
on the Virginia Park site, and includes a large parcel of Commercial 1 zoned land that would
allow new supermarket without any rezoning.
51. A Masterplan for the site has been recently prepared on behalf of the owners, and includes a
Town Centre precinct which is identified for the ‘ delivery of the retail and service offering
with opportunities for medium and high density residential and commercial activities above’.3
52. The East Village site may potentially support a new full-line supermarket with lesser impact
upon existing centres given its distance from the Bentleigh, Bentleigh East and Ormond
activity centres.
3 East Village Precinct: 20 Year Masterplan.
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 1853. Such a centre would also service a larger population given the site’s accessibility via both
North Road and East Boundary Road. This may potentially provide the opportunity for higher
order retailing activities particularly given the size of the site.
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 196. Conclusion
54. The methodology adopted by Deep End is broadly consistent with that adopted by retail
analysts for assessing the economic impacts of new retail developments. However, there are
a number of areas of the assessment where I disagree with the technical analysis and
conclusions.
55. It is my view that the assessment under-estimates the provision of retail and supermarket
floorspace due to the definition of the catchment area.
56. It is also considered that the assessment underestimates the extent of economic impacts
upon existing centres due to:
The inclusion of ‘food catering’ activities in estimating retail sales for existing centres.
Assumed trading levels per square metre for existing centres, being excessively high.
57. After adjusting for the above factors, it is estimated that the economic impact of the
proposed development upon food retailers within both Bentleigh and Ormond activity
centres would be at least 10%. Non-food retailers within Bentleigh would be impacted by an
estimated 12%.
58. Economic impacts of this scale warrant a more detailed investigation of the network of
activity centres within the surrounding area, particularly given that the existing provision of
retail and supermarket floorspace appears to be consistent with the metropolitan average.
59. The proposed East Village development is strategically significant in terms of the potential to
deliver retail facilities to a wider population without significantly impacting upon existing
centres. As a result, it should be given greater consideration in assessing the proposed
development at Ormond Station.
60. In assessing opportunities for retail development at Ormond Station, consideration should
also be given to smaller format supermarkets. This would result in reduced impacts upon
existing centres, while also leaving open the opportunity for retail development upon the
East Village site.
61. It is my view that the proposed Amendment should provide a balance between increasing
the retail choices available to local households, strengthening the role of the Ormond Activity
Centre and ensuring the ongoing performance and function of existing centres. This includes
encouraging new retail formats and activities that contribute to the diversity of retailing
within Glen Eira.
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 2062. This may be facilitated through the Amendment providing:
3,000 sqm of retail floorspace ‘as of right’ to allow a smaller format supermarket and
specialty retailers; and
the opportunity for additional retail floorspace subject to a Planning Permit, where it
is demonstrated that a development proposal will support innovative retail activities.
63. The granting of a planning permit for additional retail floorspace may be subject to any
proposed development being shown to:
satisfy retail demand that is currently unmet by existing activity centres; or introduces
new retail formats to accommodate innovative retail activities;
not impact excessively upon existing activity centres based upon an economic impact
assessment being undertaken; and
physically connect with the existing retail core of the Ormond Activity Centre rather
than function independently of it.
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 217. Declaration The opinions I have expressed in this evidence statement are based on my experience. Subject to any limitations and exclusions, my opinions are complete and accurate in every respect. I am satisfied through my research and enquiries that the opinions I have expressed are reasonable in regard to the matters discussed in this evidence statement. I have made all the enquiries that I believe are desirable and appropriate and no matters of significance which I regard as relevant have to my knowledge been withheld from the Planning Panel. Blair Warman Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development Evidence Statement of Blair Warman PAGE 22
8. Curriculum Vitae
Blair Warman
B.Econ, Grad Dip Agr Econ, Grad Dip Plan & Design
Email: blair@bwec.com.au
Tel: (03) 9530 6916
Mob: 0403 890 365
Blair has over 25 years experience as an economist, property analyst, strategic planner and policy analyst
within both the private and public sectors. He has advised clients on key strategic land use issues, urban
renewal initiatives, and property market conditions across a range of sectors and development formats. With
extensive experience working in multidisciplinary teams, Blair takes into consideration not only economic and
property issues, but also urban planning, social and demographic considerations.
Professional Background
Bachelor of Economics - University of Queensland 1985.
Graduate Diploma of Agricultural Economics - University of Queensland 1988.
Graduate Diploma in Planning and Design (Urban Planning) - University of Melbourne 1998.
Career
1999-2016 Charter Keck Cramer: Executive Urban Economics and Policy Practice Group
1997-1999 Ratio Consultants: Economist / Strategic Planner
1994-1996 Victorian Workcover Authority: Business Analyst
1988-1994 Australian Wheat Board: Economist / Policy Analyst
1986-1987 Northern Territory Department of Treasury and Finance: Research Officer
Specialisations
Economic land use planning (activity centre, urban renewal and industrial land use strategies,
structure planning).
Economic development assessments.
Property market analysis.
Demographic and spatial analysis.
Economic impact assessments.
Development site opportunity assessments.
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 23Selected Industry Experience
Retail / Activity Centres
- Maribyrnong City Council: Ashley Street Triangle Economic Land Use Assessment (2016)
- Banco Group: Yarraville Square Shopping Centre - Economic Assessment of Proposed
Supermarket Expansion (2013)
- City of Casey: Berwick South Retail and Commercial Needs Review (2016)
- Moonee Valley City Council: Airport West Activity Centre - Economic Analysis and Market Feasibility
Assessment (2015).
- FKP Property Group: Saltwater Coast (Point Cook) Retail Centre - Assessment of Future Retail
Development Opportunities (2013)
- Private Landowner: Retail Assessment - 35-77 Emu Road, Maidstone (2014)
- City of Stonnington: Hawksburn Activity Centre Structure Plan - Economic Analysis (2015).
- Banyule City Council: Greensborough Structure Plan Review - Economic Base Report (2015).
- City of Stonnington: Stonnington Real Estate Report - Prime Retail Strips (2014)
- Mitchell Shire Council: Wallan Structure Plan - Activity Centre and Employment Study (2014)
- City of Port Phillip: South Melbourne Market: Economic and Social Impact Assessment (2014)
- Monash City Council: Glen Waverley Structure Plan – Economic Assessment (2014)
- Department of Planning & Community Development: Frankston Activities Area Structure Plan -
Market Feasibility Study (2012)
- Bayside City Council: Hampton East Structure Plan – Economic Analysis (2013)
- Port Phillip City Council: Proposed Acland Street Conversion - Economic and Business Impact
Assessment (2013)
- Hobsons Bay City Council - Newport Activity Centre Structure Plan: Economic and Market
Feasibility Assessment (2013)
- VicTrack / City of Kingston - Moorabbin Station Precinct Study: Market Analysis (2013)
Industrial / Commercial
- City of Whittlesea: Thomastown Industrial Area - Feasibility Assessments and Recommendations
Study (2015)
- City of Monash: Industrial Land Use Strategy (2013)
- Darebin City Council: Green Business Attraction Strategy (2012)
- City of Moreland: Brunswick Core Industrial and Employment Precinct - Property and Investment
Analysis (2011)
- City of Brimbank: Brimbank Industrial Areas Strategy (2012)
- Frankston City Council: Frankston Health and Education Precinct Land Use and Built Form
Strategy – Market Assessment (2013)
Residential / Mixed Use
- City of Casey: Housing Diversity Strategy -Housing Market Assessment (2014).
- WSP Fitzwalter: Cave Hill Quarry Market Demand Assessment (2011)
- Victrack: East Malvern Railway Station - Residential Development Assessment (2012)
- Dandenong Development Board: Dandenong Declared Area: Residential Attraction Strategy
Development Site Opportunity Assessments
- ALE Property Group: Burvale Hotel - Development Opportunities Assessment
- GPT Group: Highpoint Shopping Centre - Commercial and Residential Development Opportunities
Assessment (2014).
- Onesteel: Braybrook Strategic Site - Development Opportunities Assessment (2011).
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 24- Sigma Pharmaceuticals (Clayton South) Economic Land Use Assessment (2012)
- Development Opportunities Assessment 289-291 Morack Road Vermont South (2015)
- 35-77 Emu Road, 84-88 and 106 Mitchell Street, Maidstone - Economic Assessment: (2015)
- Yarraman Park Developments: 48-146 Hanna Street, Noble Park – Economic Assessment (2012)
- Wylie Group: Abbotsford Industrial Precinct – Economic Assessment of Nominated Sites (2012)
Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development
Evidence Statement of Blair Warman
PAGE 259. Appendix 1 Peer Review Proposed Planning Scheme Amendment - Ormond Station Development Evidence Statement of Blair Warman PAGE 26
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