Public Transport Issues in Melbourne - Why Melbourne Metro and Grade Crossings are not
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Glen Waverley Branch of the Australian Labor Party
Monday 26th September 2016
Public Transport Issues in Melbourne
Why Melbourne Metro and Grade Crossings are not the
only concerns for Melbourne
Prof Graham Currie
Public Transport Research Group
Institute of Transport Studies
Monash University
Institute of Transport Studies (Monash)
The Australian Research Council Key Centre in Transport Management
Introduction
Transport in Melbourne
Public Transport in Melbourne
The Drivers of Change
The Future
This presentation provides an overview of public transport in Melbourne…
Key Issues Covered
• What is the transport context of Melbourne?
• What are the major public transport problems in
service provision and development
• How are services likely to develop in future?
3
…and is structured as follows
Public
Transport in The Drivers of
Transport in The Future
Melbourne Change
Melbourne
4
Introduction
Transport in Melbourne
Public Transport in Melbourne
The Drivers of Change
The Future
5
Melbourne is a car based society – 75% of trips are by car
Percent of Trips by Mode
Tram/ Bus 1% Each Yarra 11
M oreland 10
Train 3% M elbourne 10
M arribynong 9
Darebin 9
Port Phillip 8
Whittlesea 8
Stonington 8
Greater Dandenong 8
Walk 16% Kingston 7
Glen Eira 7
Banyule 7
Boroondara 7
LGA
Hobsons Bay 7
Car Driver 48% M oonee Valley 6
Whitehorse 6
M onash 6
Brimbank 6
Bayside 6
Car Lift 27% M anningham 4
Wyndham 4 Public Transport % Share
Hume 4
Frankston 4
of Trips by LGA
Nillumbik 4 Residents
Yarra Ranges 4
Casey 4
M ornington Pen 3
Cardinia 2
M aroondah 2
Knox 2
M elton 1
Source: Melbourne on the move – VATS 1994 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
6
Car vehicle sales and ownership continue to rise
Total new passenger vehicles sold annually - Australia
620,000
600,000
580,000
560,000
540,000
520,000
500,000
480,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Figure 7.2: New passenger vehicle sales 2001-2005 (FCAI, 2006) Figure 10.4: Revised projected per capita Australian motor
vehicle ownership (BTRE, 2002, p.15)
7
Urban traffic congestion in Melbourne costs $3B p.a. (2005) and will
double by 2020
Cost of Urban Traffic Congestion - Melbourne Share of 1995 Costs
Environmental
Impacts
1995 3
Private Vehicle
Year
Delay Costs
Business Delay
2020 6 Costs
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Cost $Aust Billion (2006)
Source: BTRE (2006)
8
Congestion ‘hotspots’ are expected to spread spatially….
Source: VCEC (2006) Inquiry into Managing Transport Congestion
9
….and in Time
Source: VCEC (2006) Inquiry into Managing Transport Congestion
10
While all developed economies are affected, in Australia impacts are
greater…
Relative Costs of Congestion
3
2.6
2.5
2
2 1.9
Percent of 1.5
1.5
GDP (2001)
1
0.5
0
Australia United States Western Europe OECD Average
Developed Economies
Source: ARA (2006) National Passenger Transport Agenda
11
…due to higher car dependency, low urban density, and…..
Motor Vehicle Ownership Urban Density
USA
New York 102
New Zealand Tokyo 90
Australia Chicago 79
France Singapore 65
Spain Hong Kong 63
Country
Country
Austria
London 59
San Francisco 59
Netherlands
Paris 48
Sw eden
Berlin 38
Greece
Sydney 18
Czeh Republic
Melbourne 14
Slovak Republic
Brisbane 10
-100 100 300 500 700 900 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Vehicles/100 population People per Hectare
Source: The Economist - Submission to the VCEC
Source: OECD Factbook (2006)
Inquiry into Managing Transport Congestion (2006)
12
…because our cities are GIGANTIC in scale
10km 10km
20km 20km
Port
Phillip
Bay
30km 30km
40km 40km
Greater London = 8.4M pop
0
10 20 Western Port
kilometres
Metropolitan Melbourne = 4M pop
13
Introduction
Transport in Melbourne
Public Transport in Melbourne
The Drivers of Change
The Future
14
Buses ARE Melbourne’s public transport for most residents, which is a
problem….
• Over two thirds of
Melbourne can only be
serviced by bus
services since rail and
tram services lie
considerable distances
from where people live
or where they want to
travel to
• In 1996 the Metropolitan Port
Phillip
strategy team identified Bay
that 2.16M Melbournians
lived In areas where
buses were bus was the
only means of access to
public transport. 0.98M
lived within access
distance of rail services
0
10 20 Western Port
kilometres
15
…because there arent many
• Over two thirds of
Melbourne can only be
serviced by bus
services since rail and
tram services lie
considerable distances
from where people live
or where they want to
travel to
• In 1996 the Metropolitan Port
Phillip
strategy team identified Bay
that 2.16M Melbournians
lived In areas where
buses were bus was the
only means of access to
public transport. 0.98M
lived within access
Weekday Service Frequency (2006) Weekday Service Span
distance of rail services
Peak Off Peak 0
10 Weekday
20 Western Port
kilometres
AV. MELBOURNE 40m 50m AV. MELBOURNE 06:46-18:53
16
The bus network on weekdays...
Weekday
Bus Services
17
Source: Currie (2003) Source:
Source:Currie
Currie(2003)
(2003)
…contrasts somewhat with weekends
Sunday
Bus Services
18
Source: Currie (2003)
Frequency drives Australian ridership performance
120,000
111
200
100,000
700 (903)
T80
410 130
80,000
Boardings per route km
402
150
703
508
60,000 900
527
160 220
552 901
40,000 120
Melbourne Bus
180541
271
888
555 Melbourne Smartbus
125
140 800 T65
889 850 170 307 Adelaide NE Busway
T500 561 506
623 624 Brisbane SE Busway
20,000 124 210 100 612
442
437 404
T501 250
564 Sydney T-Ways
212 542 811
135 627 T70 T61 305
507 545 781 683 T75
T71 400 304
503 443
546 785
812T64
784
407 T62 766
685
521 155 T63 926
548
0
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000
Vehicle trips/annum
Source: Currie, G. and Delbosc A (2011) ‘Understanding bus rapid transit route ridership drivers: An empirical study of Australian BRT systems’ TRANSPORT POLICY Volume
18, Issue 5, September 2011, Pages 755‐764
1919
In general our bus service level is poor compared to world practice
Source: Pan D (2013) ‘Key Transport Statistics of World Cities’ Journeys Sept 2013
2020Tram services are struggling in growing traffic congestion
Source: VCEC (2006) Inquiry into Managing
Transport Congestion
2121
Melbourne is the worlds biggest “streetcar” system
180 Tram Track Km in Mixed Traffic
167
Melbourne
160
140 Toronto
120
German Cities French Cities UK Cities USA Cities
100
80
71
66
60
49 48
44
41
40 31
25 24 24 23
18 17
20 14 13 12
9 9 9 8 7 5
4 4 3 4 3 3 3
1 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0
Stuttgart
eld
Dusseldorf
Saarbruchen
Nantes
Montoellier
Strasbourg
Manchester
WestMidlands
Tyne and Wear
San Francisco
Philadelphia
SaltLake City
San Diego
Sacramento
Detroit
Los Angeles
St.Louis
San Jose
Buffalo
e
Seattl
Essen
Duisburg
Frankfurt/Main
Dortmund
Cologne
Hanover
elefeld
Bonn SSB
Grenoble
Lyon
Orleans
Rouen
Croydon
Nottingham
Galveston
ttsburgh
Mem phis
Dallas
Kenosha
Boston
Portland
eveland
Denver
Mannheim
Bonn SWB
IDF
Baltim ore
Newark
New Orleans
Newark
MELBOURNE
Bochum
Mulheim
Karlsruhe (VBK)
Sheffi
TORONTO
Bi
Cl
Pi
Source: Currie G and Shalaby A (2007) ‘Success and Challenges in Modernising Streetcar Systems – Experience in Melbourne and Toronto’
Transportation Research Record No 2006 Transportation Research Board Washington DC ISSN 0361-1981 pp 31-39 2007
2223
Mixed Traffic service impedes performance
Average Operating Speeds – World Tram/Light Rail Systems
Skagen,
40
Guadalajara, 34
32
Toulouse, 31
30
Washington, 30
Laon,
Stuttgart,
25
25
26
26
Melbourne Tram Reliability
25
Hong Kong, 22
Strasbourg,
New York,
21
21
21
21
• 33% of services are
considered to be NOT
21
M annheim, 20
20
Los Angeles, 20
20
Rotterdam,
Tunis,
19
19
19
running on time
19
Hong Kong, 19
18
• On time defined as arriving
City/ System
M ainz, 18
18
Heidelberg 18
M unich,
Riga,
18
18
18
18
more than 1 min early of
more than 6 mins late
18
Berlin, 17
17
Oslo, 17
17
Paris, 17
17
Budapest, 17
17
Zwickau, 17
17
Constanta, 17
16
Amsterdam, 16
16
Creil, 16
16
Vienna, 16
16
Zagreb, 15
15
Genève 15
Source: Track Record
Melbourne (15/16 kph)
15
M ELBOURNE 15
15
Torino, 15
14
Toronto, 14
14
Tallinn, 14
14
Würzburg, 13
12
M ilano, 12
10
Lisbon, 10
9
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Source: UITP Databank Average Speed (KPH)
24Better performing railways are built on new not old infrastructure and strong
resilience/reliability
Average Speed (Kph) Breakdowns in Service (000 kms)
Melbourne 33 Melbourne 15
Sydney 50
Singapore 45
Best Practice 100
Hong Kong 52.6
Singapore
Never
Perth 55
Hong Kong Recorded
20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Av. Speed (Kph) Av. Speed (Kph)
25
...yet expanding rail, thus making it more complex, has been our approach
to mass transit expansion
26Unplanned disruptions are common; e.g. reported signal faults; 1,900 p.a.
(5+/day)
Reported Signaling Disruptions
• 1,900 signal failures p.a. (12
months to August 2013)
• 5.2 per day
• Biggest Locations:
• Flinders Street Station 89
• North Melbourne 71
• Newport 51
Metro Trains
"We are installing advanced computer
technology which improves control of
the signalling system, but our field
equipment is outdated and requires
replacing,"
Source: Adam Carey, The Age, ‘Signal failures are causing chronic rail delays’ 23/10/2013
2727
Melbourne rail demand growth has been impressive by any standard
History of Rail Patronage - Melbourne
240.0
228.9
225.5
219.3 222
220.0 213.9
201.2
200.0
Rail 178.6
180.0
Demand
162.4
M trips 160.0
p.a. 146.0
140.0 134.9
131.8 133.8
127.9
120.0
2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
Year
Source: Department of Transport/ Public Transport Victoria Annual Reports
28However the rail network has reached capacity
29
How Transit Orientated is Melbourne Development?
Density
– the concentration and
compactness of development
within geographic space
Diversity
– the land use mix including
the balance and compatability
of users with each other
(and transit)
Design
– which relates how the various
land uses are combined,
linked and presented
in terms of ease of
access and attractiveness
Source: Cervero and Kockleman (1997)
3030The Transit Orientation of Development – OVERALL Melbourne – only in
central areas
Source: Aston L, Currie G and K Pavkova (2016) ) ‘Does Transit Mode Influence the Transit-Orientation of Urban Development? - An Empirical Study’
JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT GEOGRAPHY Vol 55 (2016) pp83-91
31
So what do passengers think about these issues?
32PERFORMANCE MINUS Highest
IMPORTANCE RATINGS Lowest Importance Importance
SPIRAL PLOT Safe at night
Comfortable with strangers on PT 0.5 Reliability
Travel time compared to car Frequency
0
Can make trips to new places on PT Safe during day
‐0.5
Physical access ‐1 PT available where and when needed
‐1.5
Staff curteous and friendly Deal with disruptions quickly
‐2
‐2.5
Overcrowding Get to stops/stations
Ease of buying/using ticket Quality of service
Available at night Make connections
People I care for can use it safely Available on weekends
Source: Currie G
Delbosc A (2015) Information to plan journey Get information about PT
Variation in Perceptions Meet costs Disruptions don't happen often
of Urban Public
Transport Performance
Between International Boston Brisbane London Melbourne New York
Cities Using Spiral Plot
Analysis' Perth San Francisco Sydney Toronto Average 33
TRANSPORTATION
RESEARCH RECORD
Introduction
Transport in Melbourne
Public Transport in Melbourne
The Drivers of Change
The Future
34Growth in urban travel and car ownership continues to rise
• Since 1996 car travel has
increased at 1.9% p.a.
(Challenge Melbourne -
issues in metropolitan
planning for the 21st
century Oct 2000)
• Forecasts suggest
metropolitan travel will
increase by around 20%
by 2020 without action to
address current trends
(NCCC Study)
35
Meanwhile road freight volume is expected to double in 20 years
• Melbourne road freight movements total around 170M tonnes p.a..
This has grown by 120% between 1971 and 1997.
• Truck traffic forecast to double over the next 20 years (Challenge
Melbourne)
• The efficient movement of commercial traffic has been directly
linked to a competitive economy and the affordability of consumer
products
36We have also stopped being active – this has led to ‘the epidemic of obesity’
Lifestyle underpins Australia's
growing obesity problem
The Dieticians Association of Australia says
television and less active lifestyles have
contributed to increased rates of obesity.
The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare
(AIHW) has released a report showing nine
million adult Australians carry excess weight.
The report estimates at least 16 per cent of men
and 17 per cent of women are obese, with a
further 42 per cent of men and 25 per cent of
women considered overweight.
Ms Collins says lifestyles have changed
significantly over the last century.
"We use our cars more, most people have jobs
where they sit down, most of us don't do as much
work around the house, or even the yard.
"There just aren't the same opportunities to be
active."
Source: ABC News Online – September 2003
37
Road dominates increasing greenhouse emissions - BIG change is needed
to meet the ‘Stern’ Target
Transport emissions - actuals and forecast Road Transport Emissions
100 90
80 17 Mt further
Shipping reduction
80 70
Rail n measures
Aviatio
Buses 60
Light comm veh
60
89%
MT CO2-e
50
CO2-e
Trucks Road
Transport 40
40
30
Targeting Stern
Forecast (with measures)
Passenger cars 20
20 Actual
10
0 0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: Australian Greenhouse Office (2006) Source: Bus Association of Victoria (2007)
To stabilise at 450ppm CO2e, without overshooting, global emissions would need to peak
in the next 10 years and then fall at more than 5% per year, reaching 70% below current
levels by 2050. - Sir Nicholas Stern
38Research suggests that as fuel prices rise a high share of Melbourne
residents are being marginalised
Source: Dodson J and Sipe N (2006)
Shocking the Suburbs: Urban location,
housing debt and oil vulnerability in the
Australian City
- ‘vulnerability assessment for mortgage,
petrol and inflation risks and expenditure’
(VAMPIRE).
Melbourne
39
Monash research has highlighted ‘forced car ownership’ in fringe urban Australia
Key Findings - FCO
• Over 20,000
Melbourne
households with
incomeIntroduction
Transport in Melbourne
Public Transport in Melbourne
The Drivers of Change
The Future
41
Since 2001 PT service increased 63% (66% bus/ 36% rail, 10% tram) but ‐
but population growth continues at a faster pace…
Index of Public Transport Service Kms p.a (2001-2=100) Population Growth (M)
170
5
520
160
Vehicle Kms p.a. (2001-2=100)
4.8 4.7
150 4.6
4.6 4.5
4.4
140 4.4 4.3
4.3
4.2
4.2 4.1
130
Population (M)
4.0
4 3.9
120 3.8
3.8
3.8 3.7
3.6
110 3.6
3.6 3.6
100 3.4
20 6e
7e
20 0
20 1
20 12
20 3
20 4
20 -15
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
20 -9
3.2
-1
-1
-1
-1
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
-
-1
-1
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Year
3
Rail Tram Bus Total 200 200 200 200 200 201 201 201
1-2 3-4 5-6 7-8 9-10 1-12 3-14 5-
16e
Year
Source: Department of Transport/ Public Transport Victoria Annual Reports
42…in last 10 years, per capita service increased to 22% but declined
since 2011 (we have gone down by 9% points); recent trend is flat
Relative Service Level Per Head
125
122
121
120
119
115
114 114
Service Levels 113 113 113
112
(Vkms supplied) 110
Per Capita
107
105 105
102 102 102
100 100 100
95
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015- 2016-
16e 17e
Year
Source: Department of Transport/ Public Transport Victoria Annual Reports
43
Melbourne is expected to increase in size by another 1‐2M people in 20‐
30 years
Forecast Melbourne Population Growth
2.5 7
2.33
2.08 6
2
1.82
5
1.55
1.5
Growth 1.27 4
Population
(M) Growth
0.98 3
1 Total (M)
0.67
2
0.5 0.35
1
0 0
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051
Year
Source: Victoria in Future (2012)
44Melbourne Metro; exciting but capacity upgrade is long overdue now –
current start date is 2026!
45
Melbourne rail grade separations; exciting some capacity relief but not
an increase in service
46Monash Research – Delay Impacts of Grade crossings in Melbourne
Frequency of train (trains/peak hours)
Increase in travel time caused
by level crossings (%)
Localised variation in traffic travel time delay caused by at grade rail crossings
Source: PhD research of Phuoc Quy Duy Nguyen
47
Where is tram and bus priority? – SmartBus; downgraded?
48www.worldtransitresearch.info
49 9
ALSO: NEW PTRG WEBSITE
PTRG.INFO
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