Published in March 2021 Frankfurt - Residential City Profile - JLL

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Published in March 2021 Frankfurt - Residential City Profile - JLL
Residential City Profile

Frankfurt
Frankfurt | 2nd half of 2020
Published in March 2021
Housing market Frankfurt

Frankfurt counteracts scarcity of available land                                   the highest number of new building permits issued since the
with a multitude of conversions                                                    early 1960s (2019: 5,829). The level of completions in Frank-
After a high point in terms of the number of newly completed                       furt was actually a little above the estimated requirement for
apartments in 2017 with 5,122, the number of completions                           additional apartments (intermediate scenario: around 3,135
has remained at a high level ever since (4,636 new apart-                          residential units each year until 2030). However, it remains to
ments in 2019). This significant increase in the number of                         be seen to what extent this level can be maintained over the
completions has been due mainly to a considerable growth                           longer term. On the one hand, a large proportion of the new
in construction backlog in the preceding period: in 2018                           building permits (approximately 1,195 apartments) were is-
alone, there were 7,329 newly completed apartments and                             sued for the proposed conversion of commercial properties
                                                                                   to residential use – a clear sign of the scarcity on the supply
                                                                                   side. On the other hand, the increasing shortage of building
Housing supply and demand for                                                      land has meant that housing projects are more rarely con-
new buildings Frankfurt                                                            structed on undeveloped sites and there are significant re-
                                                                                   strictions on the supply side because of the high land prices.
                                                                                   Frankfurt’s city council has therefore passed a building land
                                                                                   directive, which is a planning decision to guarantee that any
                                                                                   future residential development must contain at least 30%
                                                                                   publicly subsidised housing. Frankfurt experienced substan-
                                                                                   tial population growth of 50,000 in the period from 2014 to
                                                                                   2020. Even if this growth has recently slowed down due to
                                                                                   the lower levels of population influx, the average inward mi-
                                                                                   gration, especially amongst the 18-30-year age group, remains
                                                                                   high (5-year average approximately 8,000 p.a.). Together with
                                                                                   the more intensive development of building sites, the result-
                                                                                   ing shift in demand is also having an effect on the supply
                                                                                   side: by far, the greatest proportion of completions is for stu-
                                                                                   dio and 2-room apartments (around 46%). Despite a high
                                                                                   proportion of new international arrivals in this age group and
*Additional annual need for housing units (includes also apartments in detached   the COVID-19 movement restrictions, Frankfurt was still expe-
  houses) without consideration of current construction deficits.
Source: destatis, JLL; Status: January 2021                                        riencing positive population growth as at mid-year 2020.

 Selected developments under constructions

 Name                                                     Location                                  Residential units         Completion date

  Hafenpark                                               Ostend                                        approx. 600                 2025
  Wohnquartier Berghöfe                                   Kalbach-Riedberg                              approx.360                  2023
  Wohnanlage Ruby Tower                                   Niederrad                                     approx. 315                 2021
  Wohnquartier Wings                                      Gallus                                        approx. 280                 2021
  Wohnquartier Grünhoch2                                  Nieder-Eschbach                               approx. 280                 2022

Source: Thomas Daily, JLL; Status: January 2021

Residential City Profile | H2 2020                                                                                              Frankfurt        2
Increased rental price growth in the new-build seg-
                                                      ment, more subdued growth in other segments
                                                      Average asking rents in Frankfurt increased by 4.2% year-
                                                      on-year in the second half of 2020 to their current level of
                                                      €16.00/sqm/month. This development is at around the
Distribution of rental listings by price group        same level as the 5-year average (4.4% p.a.) and around
                                                      1 percentage point above the previous year’s level (3.2%).
                                                      There was a significant fall in momentum both in the
                                                      prime segment (2.3%) and in the lower priced segment
                                                      (lowest 10% of all rental offers at 2.3%) compared to the
                                                      preceding years (5-year averages: 5.7% and 4.3% p.a., re-
                                                      spectively). Conversely, prices in the new-build segment
                                                      rose by 8.7% to their current level of €17.55/sqm/month,
                                                      a significant increase compared to both the previous year
                                                      (0.9%) and the 5-year average (3.6% p.a.). In an analysis
                                                      of locations, the most significant rental price increases
                                                      in the second half of the year were observed in the City
                                                      Centre I submarket with the Gallus, Gutleutviertel, Central
                                                      Station, Old Town and City Centre districts, and in the
                                                      West and Mitte-West submarkets.

Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021

Rental price bands for listed apartments Frankfurt    Development of rental prices

Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021   Source: JLL, empirica systeme, IDN immodaten; Status: January 2021

Residential City Profile | H2 2020                                                                             Frankfurt   3
Asking rental prices Frankfurt

                                                                                                                 Nieder-
                                                                                                                Erlenbach
                                                                                                Nieder-
                                                                                               Eschbach

                                                                                       Kalbach        Harheim
                                                                                              Bonames

                                                                                                 Frankfurter
                                                                          Niederursel
                                                                                                    Berg Berkersheim
                                                                                    Heddernheim
                                                                                            Eschersheim                               Bergen-
                                                                                                       Preungesheim                   Enkheim
                                                                                                   Eckenheim
                                                                                             Dornbusch
                                                                       Praunheim                              A 661 Seckbach
                                                                                        Ginnheim
                                                                  A5
                                                                             Hausen          Westend-
                                                                             B 44                Nord Nordend-
                                                                                              B8       West       Bornheim            B 8/40
                                               A 66               Rödelheim                                              Riederwald
                                                                                                           Nordend-
                                                  Sossenheim
                                                                             Bockenheim Westend-              Ost                   Fechenheim
                            Unterliederbach                         A 648                      Süd                    Ostend
                                                                                           B 40/44 Innenstadt
                                                                                                       Altstadt
                                          Höchst                             Gallusviertel Bahnhofsviertel
                                                      Nied
                   Zeilsheim                                                               Sachsenhausen-
                                                         B 40a
                                                               Griesheim                                                Oberrad
                                                                                           Nord
                                                                          Gutleutviertel                      B3
                      Sindlingen                                                 Niederrad
                                                    Schwanheim                             B 43/44

                                                                                               Sachsenhausen-
                                                                                                    Süd

                                                                                                A3
                                                               B 43

                                           Flughafen Frankfurt

                                                 Flughafen

  0                           5                              10 km
                                                                                                                                          OpenStreetMap-contributors

 Rent Level
  Average in €/sqm/month on postcode level

        < 12.00                                       16.00 < 18.00                            Water Area                              Industrial or
                                                                                                                                       Traffic Area
        12.00 < 14.00                                 >= 18.00                                 Green Area                              Other Area

        14.00 < 16.00

  Source: JLL, empirica systeme

Residential City Profile | H2 2020                                                                                                               Frankfurt        4
Continuing growth, especially for purchase prices
                                                      in the new-build segment
                                                      The average purchase price for condominium apartments
                                                      in Frankfurt of €6,550/sqm was an increase of 11.8% in the
                                                      second half of 2020. This continues the growth of the previ-
Distribution of condo listings by price group         ous year (9.7%) and even exceeds the 5-year average (8.5%
                                                      p.a.). The strongest impetus for this half-year trend did not
                                                      come from the prime segment (€9,460/sqm), as this is actu-
                                                      ally a little below the previous year’s level (-0.3%) after the
                                                      significant growth in this segment of 11.9% last year, and a
                                                      5-year average of 8.6% p.a. The most significant momen-
                                                      tum came from the lower priced segment (€4,010/sqm)
                                                      where purchase prices grew by 12.0% (previous year: 13.7%),
                                                      and the new-build segment where asking prices in the sec-
                                                      ond half of 2020 were 13.6% higher than in the same period
                                                      the previous year. This growth is again considerably above
                                                      both the previous year’s level (8.2%) and the 5-year average
                                                      (9.6% p.a.). There was also further marginal growth in the
                                                      absolute prime segment in Frankfurt with a price of around
                                                      €15,000/sqm. In an analysis of locations, there was signifi-
                                                      cant growth in purchase prices in the North East, Mitte-
                                                      West and Mitte-North submarkets, but purchase prices
Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021
                                                      stagnated in the city centre districts.

Purchase price bands for condominiums Frankfurt       Development of purchase prices for condominiums

Source: JLL, empirica systeme; Status: January 2021   Source: JLL, empirica systeme, IDN immodaten; Status: January 2021

Residential City Profile | H2 2020                                                                             Frankfurt   5
Asking condominium prices Frankfurt

                                                                                                                 Nieder-
                                                                                                                Erlenbach
                                                                                                Nieder-
                                                                                               Eschbach

                                                                                       Kalbach        Harheim
                                                                                              Bonames

                                                                                                 Frankfurter
                                                                          Niederursel
                                                                                                    Berg Berkersheim
                                                                                    Heddernheim
                                                                                            Eschersheim                               Bergen-
                                                                                                       Preungesheim                   Enkheim
                                                                                                   Eckenheim
                                                                                             Dornbusch
                                                                       Praunheim                              A 661 Seckbach
                                                                                        Ginnheim
                                                                  A5
                                                                             Hausen          Westend-
                                                                             B 44                Nord Nordend-
                                                                                              B8       West       Bornheim            B 8/40
                                               A 66
                                                                  Rödelheim                                              Riederwald
                                                                                                           Nordend-
                                                  Sossenheim
                                                                             Bockenheim Westend-              Ost                   Fechenheim
                            Unterliederbach                         A 648                      Süd                    Ostend
                                                                                           B 40/44 Innenstadt
                                                                                                       Altstadt
                                          Höchst                             Gallusviertel Bahnhofsviertel
                                                      Nied
                   Zeilsheim                                                               Sachsenhausen-
                                                         B 40a
                                                               Griesheim                                                Oberrad
                                                                                           Nord
                                                                          Gutleutviertel                      B3
                      Sindlingen                                                 Niederrad
                                                    Schwanheim                             B 43/44

                                                                                               Sachsenhausen-
                                                                                                    Süd

                                                                                                A3
                                                               B 43

                                            Flughafen Frankfurt

                                                 Flughafen

  0                           5                              10 km
                                                                                                                                          OpenStreetMap-contributors

 Condominium price level
  Average in €/sqm on postcode level

        < 3,000                                       6,000 < 8,500                            Water Area                              Industrial or
                                                                                                                                       Traffic Area
        4,000 < 5,500                                 >= 8,500                                 Green Area                              Other Area

        5,500 < 6,000

  Source: JLL, empirica systeme

Residential City Profile | H2 2020                                                                                                               Frankfurt        6
Contacts
Michael Bender                                                            Helen Lindner                                                              Ralf Kemper
Head of Residential Germany                                               Head of Residential Development                                            Head of Valuation & Transaction
Frankfurt                                                                 Germany                                                                    Advisory Germany
+49 (0) 69 2003 2333                                                      Berlin                                                                     Frankfurt
michael.bender@eu.jll.com                                                 +49 (0) 30 203980 703                                                      +49 (0) 69 2003 1092
                                                                          helen.lindner@eu.jll.com                                                   ralf.kemper@eu.jll.com

Helge Scheunemann                                                         Roman Heidrich                                                             Sebastian Grimm
Head of Research Germany                                                  Lead Director Valuation &                                                  Lead Director Valuation &
Hamburg                                                                   Transaction Advisory                                                       Transaction Advisory
+49 (0) 40 350011 225                                                     Berlin                                                                     Frankfurt
helge.scheunemann@eu.jll.com                                              +49 (0) 30 203980 106                                                      +49 (0) 69 2003 1196
                                                                          roman.heidrich@eu.jll.com                                                  sebastian.grimm@eu.jll.com

Johannes Roesler
Team Leader Residential Investment
Frankfurt
+49 (0) 69 2003 1362
johannes.roesler@eu.jll.com

Authors
Dr. Sören Gröbel                                                          Christian Giesemann
Director Research                                                         Team Leader Research
Berlin                                                                    Berlin
+49 (0) 30 203980 151                                                     +49 (0) 30 203980 201
soeren.groebel@eu.jll.com                                                 christian.giesemann@eu.jll.com

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