Recovery and Resilience Dialogue with the European Commission - European Parliament
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IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS
Recovery and Resilience Dialogue with
the European Commission
BUDG-ECON Committee meeting on 1 September 2021
Executive Vice-President Dombrovskis and Commissioner Gentiloni have been invited to the third Recovery and
Resilience Dialogue under the Recovery and Resilience Facility Regulation. This briefing addresses the following
subjects: the state of play of the Recovery and Resilience plans and of the Recovery and Resilience Facility; the
statistical recording of the Recovery and Resilience Facility and some data on the current economic situation and
estimates on the impact of the Facility.
1. Recovery and Resilience Plans: state-of-play
1.1 Adoption stage
In order to access financing from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), Table 1: RRPs assessed by the
Member States are required to prepare Recovery and Resilience Plans (RRPs). Commission
These plans should address the objectives and criteria set out in the RRF
Date RRPs
Regulation (see Annexes 1 and 2 and a specific EGOV briefing for an overview
of the RRF). RRPs should also address the challenges identified in the European 16 June Portugal, Spain
Semester, particularly the 2019 and 2020 country-specific recommendations 17 June Greece, Denmark
(CSRs, please see separate EGOV document with an overview of the CSRs). 18 June Luxembourg
As of 27 August, 25 Member States have put forward their RRP (Belgium, 21 June Austria, Slovakia
Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy,
Italy, Germany,
Ireland, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Austria, Poland, 22 June
Latvia
Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, and Sweden).
23 June Belgium, France
By 27 August, 18 RRPs have been assessed by the Commission, which 1 July Slovenia
concluded that all respected the Regulation criteria (see Annex 3 for a summary
of the Commission’s overall ratings of the plans), and proposed to Council to 2 July Lithuania
adopt the assessments (see table 1 on the right). 8 July Cyprus, Croatia
The Commission assessments comprise two documents (all available here): a 16 July Ireland
draft Council Implementing Decision (CID), with an annex, and a staff working 19 July Czechia
document (SWD).
In addition to these documents, the Commission also made available Q&A documents per Member State
and country factsheets containing a summarised version of each plan. Such documents are available
Economic Governance Support Unit (EGOV)
Authors: Cristina Dias, Jost Angerer, Alice Zoppè,
Kristina Grigaitė, Wolfgang Lehofer
Directorate-General for Internal Policies
EN
PE 689.458 - August 2021IPOL | Economic Governance Support Unit
together with the formal documents assessing the plans.
By 27 August, the Council adopted the Commission assessments for 16 plans (12 assessments were adopted
on 13 July - Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Portugal,
Slovakia and Spain; 4 further assessments - those of Croatia, Cyprus, Lithuania and Slovenia- were adopted
by written procedure following a discussion on the 26 July ECOFIN Council). The Council made limited
modifications to the Commission proposals and no changes on substance. Annex 4 provides links to the
available documents.
Table 2: Amounts requested and available to Member States
(A) (B) (C) (D)
Amounts requested(*) Max. pre- Pre- Maximum financial allocation:
Grants Loan financing: financing - Max total grants €312,5 billion in 2018 prices
13% of (A) (B) as a - Max total loans €360 billion in 2018 prices
ratio to Max grants per Max loans per Member
2021 Member State in State in current prices
GDP (**) current prices (***) (****)
Belgium Max 0 €767 Mn 0,16% €5.9 Bn €32.8 Bn
Bulgaria - - - €6.3 Bn €4.2 Bn
Czechia Max 0 €923 Mn 0,40% €7.1 Bn €14.3 Bn
Denmark Max 0 €208 Mn 0,06% €1.6 Bn €21.9 Bn
Germany Max 0 €3328 Mn 0,10% €25.6 Bn €240.9 Bn
Estonia Max 0 €127.73 Mn 0,45% €1.0 Bn €1.9 Bn
Ireland Max 0 €130 Mn 0,03% €1.0 Bn €18.7 Bn
Greece Max Max €3926 Mn 2,28% €17.8 Bn €12.4 Bn
Spain Max 0 €9035 Mn 0,75% €69.5 Bn €84.8 Bn
France Max 0 €5122 Mn 0,21% €39.4 Bn €168.4 Bn
Croatia Max 0 €819 Mn 1,56% €6.3 Bn €3.7 Bn
Italy Max Max €24921 Mn 1,44% €68.9 Bn €122.8 Bn
Cyprus Max €227 Mn €159.51 Mn 0,73% €1.0 Bn €1.5 Bn
Latvia €1.8 Bn 0 €234 Mn 0,75% €2.0 Bn €2.0 Bn
Lithuania Max 0 €286 Mn 0,56% €2.2 Bn €3.2 Bn
Luxembourg Max 0 €13 Mn 0,02% €0.1 Bn €2.7 Bn
Hungary Max 0 €93 Mn 0,65% €7.2 Bn €9.7 Bn
Malta Max 0 €41.13 Mn 0,30% €0.3 Bn €0.9 Bn
Netherlands - - - €6.0 Bn €55.3 Bn
Austria Max 0 €455 Mn 0,12% €3.5 Bn €27.2 Bn
Poland Max €12.1 Bn €4680 Mn 0,86% €23.9 Bn €34.8 Bn
Portugal Max € 2.7 Bn €2158 Mn 1,01% €13.9 Bn €14.2 Bn
Romania Max Max €3796 Mn 1,63% €14.2 Bn €15.0 Bn
Slovenia Max €700 Bn €325 Mn 0,66% €1.8 Bn €3.2 Bn
Slovakia Max 0 €819 Mn 0,84% €6.3 Bn €6.3 Bn
Finland Max 0 €273 Mn 0,11% €2.1 Bn €16.4 Bn
Sweden Max 0 €416 Mn 0,08% €3.3 Bn €33.2 Bn
Total €325.6 Bn €165.9 Bn €63.9 Bn - €338.2 Bn €952.4 Bn
(*) Based on Commission’s press releases. (**) Commission Spring 2021 Economic Forecast; (***) As per Commission table here.
Current prices. (****) The displayed maximum volume of the loan support for each Member State corresponds to 6,8% of its 2019
gross national income.
2 PE 689.458Recovery and Resilience Dialogue with the European Commission
1.2 Moving to the implementation stage
By 27 August, nine Member States have been granted
pre-financing in accordance with the RRF Regulation Table 3: Pre-financing disbursements
(see Table 3).
Amount
Date Country
Any further disbursements will depend on fulfilling disbursed
the relevant milestones and targets as agreed in the
3 August Portugal EUR 2,2 bn
RRPs. Member States will be signing a set of
documents prior to receiving disbursements. These 3 August Belgium EUR 770 M
documents 1 are the operational arrangements to 3 August Luxembourg EUR 12,1 M
which reference is made in article 20(6) of the RRFR
9 August Greece EUR 4 bn
and the financing (and loan) agreements referred to
in articles 15(2) and 23(1) of the RRFR. 13 August Italy EUR 24,9 bn
These operational arrangements are country-specific 17 August Spain EUR 9 bn
and cover the arrangements and timetable for
17 August Lithuania EUR 289 M
monitoring and implementation of the RRPs, the
relevant indicators relating to the fulfilment of the 19 August France EUR 5,1 bn
envisaged milestones and targets, the arrangements 26 August Germany EUR 2,25 bn
for providing full access by the Commission to data,
and, where appropriate, the additional milestones Total disbursements EUR 48,52 bn
and targets related to the payment of the loan.
Measures started from 1 February 2020 onwards are eligible to financing under the RRF provided that they
comply with the requirements set out in the RRF Regulation. A few Member States have already indicated
that they would be keen to receive funding as early as possible and have frontloaded measures proposed in
their RRPs.
2. Implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility
2.1 Delegated acts
The RRF empowers the Commission to further develop the Regulation through delegated acts to support
the monitoring of the implementation of the RRPs. Such acts will cover the RRF scoreboard (article 30(2));
common indicators for reporting (article 29(4)(a)) and a methodology for reporting social expenditure
(article 29(4)(a)). The Commission discussed draft versions of two delegated acts in an expert group set up
May 2021; such delegated acts relate to the scoreboard and common indicators which the Commission
decided to aggregate in one single act, and the methodology for reporting social expenditure. Agendas and
minutes of the meetings can be found here.
On 28 July the Commission opened a 4 week consultation period (until the 25 August) on both draft
delegated acts 2. Once the consultation closes, the Commission will adopt the delegated acts and send them
to Parliament and Council. The acts will enter into force only if no objection has been expressed within one
month by either institution.
1
The Commission discussed informally with Member State’s experts the templates for the financing agreements and for the operational
arrangements.
2
Information can be found here and here.
PE 689.458 3IPOL | Economic Governance Support Unit
2.2 EU funding for the national plans
To finance the RRF and the measures proposed by the Member States and adopted by the Council, the
Commission is issuing bonds on financial markets. The Commission expects to raise up to around €800
billion between now and end 2026 (in current prices), which would translate into borrowing volumes of on
average roughly €150 billion per year. For the first time, the Commission is using a “diversified funding
strategy”, replacing the “back-to-back” applied so far (e.g. with SURE). See here and EGOV briefing for further
details. The current funding plan will be updated in September (according to the Commission latest
Investors’ presentation).
On 15 June, the Commission launched the first RRF issuance, EUR 20 billion, via a ten-year bond due on 4
July 2031. On the 22 June, the bonds were listed in Luxembourg. A second issuance took place on 29 June
and allowed the Commission to obtain EUR 15 bn more. On 13 July, the Commission issued another
EUR 10 billion through a 10-year bond with a coupon of 0.45%. Following this third transaction, the
Commission has gathered EUR 45 billion for financing the various programmes under NextGenerationEU
(NGEU), notably the RRF.
A detailed disbursement calendar for Member States is not yet available. Disbursement of pre-financing
under the RRF started on 3 August (see section 1).
Repayment of the NGEU debt - from 2028 until 2058 - is foreseen on the basis of possible new own resources.
A roadmap for introducing these new own resources was discussed and agreed alongside the negotiation
of the RRF. According to this roadmap, the Commission would have proposed by June new own resources
based on a carbon border adjustment mechanism, the Emissions Trading System and a digital levy. Such
proposals were postponed and are pending (currently foreseen for 22 December, according to the
Commission forthcoming agendas). On 31 August, the Budget Committee will discuss the delay in new own
resources proposals on a digital levy and a carbon border adjustment mechanism with Commissioner for
Budget Johannes Hahn.
Further own resources, to be proposed by June 2024, could include a Financial Transaction Tax, a financial
contribution linked to the corporate sector or a new common corporate tax base.
2.3 Monitoring and control
In implementing the Facility, the Member States, as beneficiaries or borrowers of funds under the Facility,
shall take all the appropriate measures to protect the financial interests of the Union and to ensure that the
use of funds in relation to measures supported by the Facility complies with the applicable Union and
national law, in particular regarding the prevention, detection and correction of fraud, corruption and
conflicts of interests (see article 22 of the RRF Regulation).
4 PE 689.458Recovery and Resilience Dialogue with the European Commission
Article 8 of the same Regulation further determines that implementation of the RRF should comply with
Regulation 2020/2092 on the general regime of conditionality for the protection of the Union budget. On
20 July, the Commission adopted its 2021 Rule of Law Report, including its 27 country chapters. The report
presents positive and negative developments across the Member States in four key areas for the rule of law:
the justice system, the anti-corruption framework, media pluralism and other institutional issues related to
checks and balances. This year’s report consolidates the exercise started by the 2020 report, deepening the
Commission’s assessment and further developing on the impact and challenges brought by the COVID-19
pandemic. The country chapters, which rely on a qualitative assessment carried out by the Commission,
analyse new developments since the first report and the follow-up to the challenges and developments
identified in the 2020 Report 3.
Box 1: The European Public Prosecutor's Office (EPPO) started its operating on 1 June 2021
Established by Regulation (EU) 2017/1939 of 12 October 2017 and funded by the EU budget, the EPPO is
the first supranational public prosecution office in charge of criminal investigations and prosecutions. In its
current set-up, 22 EU Member States participate in the enhanced cooperation.
The EPPO is in charge of conducting criminal investigations and prosecutions for crimes against the EU
budget. It is the first supranational public prosecution office. It investigates and prosecutes the following
types of fraud and other crimes affecting the EU's financial interests:
• fraud relating to expenditures and revenues;
• fraud relating to VAT (if it involves two or more Member States and is worth at least EUR 10 million);
• money laundering of assets derived from defrauding the EU budget;
• active and passive corruption or misappropriation that affect the EU's financial interests;
• participation in a criminal organisation if the focus of its activities is to commit crimes against the
EU budget.
This new Union body can also investigate and prosecute any other illegal activity that is ‘inextricably linked'
to an offence against the EU budget.
On 5 July, EPPO and OLAF (European Anti-Fraud Office) signed working arrangement. OLAF conducts
administrative investigations, while EPPO conducts criminal investigations and prosecutes cases falling
under its competence in front of national courts.
Only six weeks after EPPO started its operations, it has already processed more than a thousand reports of
fraud affecting the financial interests of the EU.
EPPO has opened a webpage in all EU languages where citizens may report on potential crimes affecting
the financial interests of the EU.
For an overview on monitoring and control structures in the RRPs, see specific EGOV briefing.
3. Some views expressed by third parties
There is limited information available assessing all the RRPs beyond the Commission staff assessments.
However, some think tanks and NGOs are providing either some country specific or thematic assessments.
In addition some specific public bodies, such as the independent fiscal institutions, are providing some
partial assessments. Some examples of assessments by these organs are presented below.
3
Transparency International recently published its Global Corruption Barometer where it concludes that “almost a third of people think corruption
is getting worse in their country and almost half say their government is doing a bad job at tackling corruption.”.
PE 689.458 5IPOL | Economic Governance Support Unit
In its June 2021 European Fiscal Monitor, the Network of EU Independent Financial Institutions 4 addressed
RRPs and assessed the involvement of national independent fiscal institutions in the process leading to their
adoption. The Report5 notes, in particular, that:
- “In many countries 6, RRPs appear to cover measures that were predominantly included in the previous
legislation. In six EU member states 7 national RRPs only cover measures that were already introduced in
the previous legislation (...). In two EU member states 8 new measures make up more than four fifths of
the total size of the national RRPs. In the remaining EU member states national RRPs either fully 9 or
substantially 10 consist of new measures that were not included in the previous legislation”;
- “Most RRPs are heavily front-loaded with the largest share of the expenditures incurred in the first two
years of the timeline (2021-22) (...). There are also a few countries where some of the 2020 measures are
planned to be retroactively financed through national RRPs, though the share is marginal (2% in Austria
and less than 1% in Czechia, France and Italy)”;
- “Only 7 out of 32 national IFIs 11 had an official role in RRPs. The Belgian Federal Planning Bureau (FPB),
Estonian Fiscal Council (EFC) and Slovenian Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development
(IMAD) were tasked with assessing the macroeconomic impact of the EU-financed component of the
national RRPs 12, and four others have provided or will provide an opinion on the national RRPs. Overall,
national IFIs deemed the RRPs to be appropriate. However, some have questioned the underlying
assumptions and overall fragmentation of the national RRPs. Eight IFIs 13 have raised concerns about the
content, lack of information about the projected reforms, and the implementation and prioritisation of
the national RRPs. National IFIs noted that the reforms outlined in the RRPs are ambitious, complex and
highly dependent on the capacity of the administration and effective coordination with other
stakeholders when it comes to implementation.” 14
Bruegel is assessing the RRPs on the basis of an own dataset and intends to perform an analysis, including
a comparison of reforms, also in light of the CSRs. One session of Bruegel‘s annual conference on the 1
September 2021 will be devoted to discuss the state of play and the outlook of the RRF.
In the context of a broader research (CEPS Recovery and Resilience Monitor), a CEPS paper assesses the
reforms presented in the Italian RRP, by looking at their relevance, effectiveness, efficiency and coherence.
Detailed information is provided on the proposed means and the timeline of implementation, including
which administrations will be involved, and the relevant milestones that can be used to track the
implementation of the reforms.
4
The Network provides to national independent fiscal institutions a platform to exchange views, expertise and pool resources in areas of common
concern. It was formally established on the 11th of September 2015 and currently includes the independent fiscal institutions from Austria,
Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands,
Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. The Network supports the efforts to review and reinforce the EU fiscal framework,
seeking to better exploit the synergies between rules and institutions, as well as between different levels of administration whilst respecting the
principle of subsidiarity and enhancing local ownership and accountability. Secretariat is provided by CEPS.
5
The Report was prepared by the Network Secretariat on the basis of information collected from national independent fiscal institutions and does
not necessarily reflect the opinion of national IFIs (see p. 4 of the Report).
6
9 out of 14 for which information was available.
7
CZ, DK, ES, HU, LV, HR.
8
CY, LT.
9
BE, FI, SK.
10
AT, IT.
11
BE FPB, CZ, EE, FI EPC, EL HFC, LV, SI IMAD.
12
The NL CPB also has a mandate to assess the macroeconomic impact of the RRP and will likely do so once the government submits it.
13
CZ, ES, EL HFC, IT, LV, NL CPB, PT, SK.
14
It can be added that Recital 59 of the RRF Regulation states that “Member States should be encouraged to seek the opinion of their national
productivity boards and independent fiscal institutions on their recovery and resilience plans, including possible validation of elements of their recovery
and resilience plan.”.
6 PE 689.458Recovery and Resilience Dialogue with the European Commission
Wuppertal Institute and E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism developed the Green Recovery Tracker
to assess the contribution of EU member states’ national recovery plans to the green transition.
Box 2: Some RRF/RRPs related events to note
On 6 September, the European Semester Group of the European Economic and Social Committee will hold
a public hearing on "Towards the European Semester 2022 – Implementing the National Recovery and
Resilience Plans".
The European Policy Centre is organising a Policy Dialogue on the 7 September 2021 to discuss the
implications of the RRF funding towards the SDG-aligned investments in the EU and beyond.
4. The statistical recording of the Recovery and Resilience Facility
The statistical recording of RRF funds in national accounts compiled in accordance with the European
System of Account (ESA) will be as follows 15:
• RRF funds received as grants and related expenditures are “budgetary neutral”: they are netted out
in national accounts.
• RRF loans are recorded in national accounts as increase in the gross government debt. Expenditures
financed with loans increase the deficit when spent.
• The debt raised on the capital markets by the Commission on behalf of the EU to finance the RRF
(EURI) is to be considered as debt of the EU. It is a liability of the EU budget and a contingent liability
for the Union budgetary planning. RRF loans are both a liability and an asset for the EU (but the
Maastricht definition of debt looks at gross debt).
• National accounts will start recording Member States’ contributions to the EU to repay the total
RRF’s grant component after 2028, unless possible new resources are adopted16 (see previous
section).
The latest EFB’s publication on “Assessment of the fiscal stance appropriate for the euro area in 2022” (see
Box 2 thereof) presents a number of statistical issues related to the RRF, notably general government gross
debt in national accounts and when measuring the fiscal impulse.
As for the statistical recording of RRF funds, the EFB further notes that:
• “In theory, statisticians would be perfectly able to produce a full set of accounts for the EU government
sector. However, there is no statistical office in charge of compiling such accounts. Eurostat is tasked to
verify data submitted by national statistical offices; it does not produce national accounts of the EU.
National statistical offices record transactions with the EU in a residual and not-further-detailed sector
called ‘rest of the world’. Consequently, aggregating national debt and deficits of all Member States will
no longer reflect total government debt and deficits in the EU.” This can be an issue, as “EU citizens and
financial markets should have a complete picture of how much debt governments have accumulated
and will eventually have to service via taxes or other government revenues” 17.
• “... the European Commission publishes annually the Consolidated Annual Accounts of the European
Union for the preceding year. These accounts include a detailed overview of the EU’s finances as well as
implementation of the EU budget... The EU consolidated annual accounts include a complete record of
15
See also Eurostat note of November 2020.
16
The EFB provides an estimate, based on 2021 GDP: the gross debt to GDP ratio of Greece would be close to 10 percentage points higher, 6 ½
percentage points in Portugal, close to 6 percentage points in Spain, 4 percentage points in Italy, around 1 ½ percentage points in France
17
Some observers argue that, for analytical purposes, all EU debt should be accounted as government debt of Member States, regardless of
whether it is provided in the form of loans or grants. The argument is underpinned by the view that EU debt is issued on behalf of Member States
backed by several, as opposed to joint commitments, to repay it with future contributions to the EU budget in line with their respective GNI
shares.
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assets and liabilities, with the latter encompassing debt issued by the EU for various programmes such as
balance of payment assistance to non-euro area Member States or neighbouring countries, financial
assistance to euro area Member States or the recent SURE initiative 18. The difference between total
liabilities and total assets is called “amounts to be called from Member States”, i.e. future claims on
national governments to finance any excess of expenditure over revenue. Over the coming years, these
claims will increase significantly on the back of debt-financed RRF grants. The EFB recommends “Short
of reclassifying EU debt, an upgrade of ESA implementation to show detailed accounts for the EU,
including a budget balance and gross debt, would improve transparency.”
In the INI Report on “Review of the macroeconomic legislative framework” adopted on 8 July 2021, the EP
considers that “NextGenerationEU (NGEU) loans should be recorded as national debt; calls on the Commission,
in the updates of the implementation guidelines of the Stability and Growth Pact, to provide NGEU-loan-financed
expenditure with the same treatment as for the European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI) in the context of
the Commission communication on flexibility” 19.
As for the Fiscal impulse, the EFB notes that the RRF also affect the way analysts measure the fiscal impulse
of Member States. Usually, the assessment of the fiscal impulse (often called “fiscal stance”, see also EGOV
note) looks at the observed change in the structural primary budget balance: an increase of the deficit is
seen as expansionary, a decline is seen as a contractionary. According to the EFB “However, with grants from
the EU issued to national budgets financed by debt raised at EU level, the conventional approach no longer works.
If used to increase spending, EU grants will stimulate Member State economies”, but being “budgetary neutral”
they will not affect neither the headline nor the structural balances and therefore will be not visible.
Therefore, “the contribution generated by the EU is to be accounted for separately”. When the RRF grants will
end, if the government decides to continue spending, “a possible deterioration in the budget balance will not
imply an expansion ... By contrast ... an unchanged budget balance would misleadingly signal a neutral fiscal
impulse” if the government decided to cut spending.
5. Economic forecast and some growth estimates
As the European Commission highlighted in their latest Summer 2021 economic forecast, “the improving
health situation and ensuing continued easing of virus containment measures are putting the EU economies back
in motion. The near-term outlook for the European economy looks brighter than expected in spring. The
contraction of GDP in the first quarter of the year turned out to be marginal, and milder than suggested by
Eurostat’s Preliminary Flash Estimate”.
All in all, the EU and euro area economies are forecast to grow by 4.8% in 2021. The rebound benefits from
the substantial carry-over effect from the previous year, the strong pick up in private consumption, as well
as the impact of the Recovery and Resilience Facility from the second half of the year. In 2022, real GDP is
projected to grow by 4.5% in both areas, again helped by a significant carry-over.
Based on updated forecast, all of the EU Member States will reach their pre-pandemic GDP levels by the end
of 2022 and quite many of them (Denmark, Bulgaria, Sweden, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania,
Luxembourg, Poland and Ireland) will manage to achieve it by the end of 2021. According to the
Commission, “All Member States are expected to see the gap to their pre-crisis output levels close by the end of
2022, but the pace of the recovery is expected to remain highly uneven the largest Member States, Poland is
expected to have returned to pre-crisis levels of output in 2021-Q2, Germany and the Netherlands in 2021-Q3,
while Spain and Italy will do so one year after, in 2022-Q3”.
18
The assets and liabilities of entities ... such as the ESM, are not included in the EU consolidated annual accounts”. The ESM is not an EU body.
19
The Commission Communication on flexibility deals with such issues in paragraph 2.1.2 and 2.2.
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The Commission underlines that uncertainty and risks surrounding the growth outlook are high but remain
overall balanced. The threat posed by the spread and emergence of variants of concern underscores the
importance of a further rapid increase in full vaccination. Economic risks relate in particular to the response
of households and firms to changes in restrictions and the impact of emergency policy support withdrawal.
The European Commission estimated NGEU induced GDP growth for each Member State using their
macroeconomic QUEST model that ranges from 0.4% (for Denmark by 2024 and Austria and Germany by
2026) up to 3.3% (for Greece by 2026) (see Table 3). Other institutions (such as the IMF and the ECB) have
also provided their estimations on potential NGEU/RRF impact on European economies, please see EGOV
briefing for more information.
Table 4: Commission estimates of NGEU induced GDP growth (*)
Estimated growth
Belgium 0.5% - 0.9% by 2026 Cyprus 1.1% - 1.8% by 2026
Denmark 0.4% - 0.6% by 2024 Latvia 1.3% - 2.0% by 2026
Germany 0.4% - 0.7% by 2026 Lithuania 1.0% - 1.6% by 2026
Greece 2.1% - 3.3% by 2026 Luxembourg 0.5% - 0.8% by 2026
Spain 1.8% - 2.5% by 2024 Austria 0.4% - 0.7% by 2026
France 0.6% - 1.0% by 2024 Portugal 1.5% - 2.4% by 2026
Croatia 1.9% - 2.9% by 2026 Slovenia 1.1% - 1.7% by 2026
Italy 1.5% - 2.5% by 2026 Slovakia 1.3% - 2.1% by 2026
Czechia 0.8% - 1.2% by 2026 Ireland 0.3% - 0.5% by 2026
(*) Based on Commission staff assessment reports (available here for each assessed RRP based on QUEST simulations (baseline
scenario). It should be noted, as per Commission’s staff assessment reports, that these estimates do not contemplate the impact of
structural reforms and are not comparable to Member States’ own estimates. The figures also do not take into account possible
cross-country impacts of RRPs. The Commission further notes that the RRF amounts to roughly 90% of NGEU, which also includes
ReactEU, Horizon, InvestEU, JTF, Rural Development and RescEU.
The European Commission also published a study evaluating possible spillover effects of the NGEU 20, which
is estimated to induce around 1.5% higher real GDP in 2024 in the EU-27 compared to the one foreseen in a
no-policy change baseline (the GDP gains reach 1.2% in 2026 if it is assumed that the NGEU plan lasts from
2021 to 2026). The estimations also suggest that “the EU-wide GDP effects are around one third larger when
explicitly accounting for the spillover effects from individual-country measures. A simple aggregation of the
national effects of individual investment plans would ... substantially underestimate the growth effects of NGEU.”
The estimations also highlight different spillover patterns across Member States. Namely, for small open
economies with smaller NGEU allocations, like Luxembourg and Ireland, spillover effects account for the
bulk of the GDP impact; for larger economies with deep trade integration, such as Germany, spillovers
accounts for more than half of the GDP effect, while for rather closed economies, such as Bulgaria, Croatia,
Greece and Italy, even given their larger NGEU allocations, domestic effects typically dominate.
20
The study aims at quantifying the effects of the additional investment expenditure for each Member State, as well as, the role of key transmission
channels, such as the zero lower bound, productivity effects and different assumptions on the disbursement speed. However, the paper does
not quantify the impact of structural reforms, which, according to the Commission can further enhance the growth impact of NGEU.
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Annex 1: Elements of the RRF Regulation
Scope (policy areas to cover by the RRF investments and reforms) - article 4 of RRF regulation
Green Digital Smart, sustainable and Social Health and Policies for the
transition transformation inclusive growth, including and economic, social next generation,
economic cohesion, jobs, territorial and institutional children and the
productivity, cohesion resilience, with the youth, such as
competitiveness, research, aim of, inter alia, education and
development and increasing crisis skills
innovation, and a well- preparedness and
functioning internal market crisis response
with strong SMEs capacity
Horizontal principles - articles 5, 9 and 28
Support from the Facility shall not, unless in duly justified cases, substitute recurring national budgetary expenditure
and shall respect the principle of additionality of Union funding.
The Facility shall only support measures respecting the principle of ‘do no significant harm’.
Support under the Facility shall be additional to support provided under other Union programmes and instruments.
Support from various instruments can be combined insofar such support does not cover the same cost.
The Commission and the Member States concerned shall, in a manner commensurate to their respective
responsibilities, foster synergies and ensure effective coordination between the Facility and other Union
programmes and instruments, including the Technical Support Instrument, and in particular with measures financed
by the Union funds.
Eligibility - article 17
The RRPs shall be consistent with the relevant country-specific challenges and priorities identified in the context of
the European Semester and (for Member States whose currency is euro) those identified in the most recent Council
recommendation on the economic policy of the euro area. The recovery and resilience plans shall also be consistent
with the information included by the Member States in the National Reform Programmes under the European
Semester, in their National Energy and Climate Plans and updates thereof under Regulation (EU) 2018/1999, in the
territorial just transition plans under a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council establishing the
Just Transition Fund (the ‘Just Transition Fund Regulation’), in the Youth Guarantee implementation plans and in
the partnership agreements and operational programmes under the Union funds.
Assessment criteria of RRPs - article 19 and annex V
The Commission assesses RRPs by rating them (into three categories) on the basis of the criteria of relevance,
effectiveness, efficiency and coherence; the methodology is further detailed in the Regulation. The criteria refer to,
specifically, whether the RRP presents a balanced response to the Member State challenges, whether it addresses
the concerns identified in CSRs, whether it contributes to strengthening growth, resilience and social impact,
whether the measures respect the “do no significant harm” principle, whether it addresses the green and digital
agendas, whether it brings about lasting impacts and is coherent. Robust control systems, effective monitoring and
implementation and reasonable and plausible cost estimates are also considered. In addition, Member States have
to explain how their plans address gender equality, security concerns and undertaken consultations.
Protection of the financial interests of the Union - article 22
In implementing the Facility, the Member States, as beneficiaries or borrowers of funds under the Facility, shall take
all the appropriate measures to protect the financial interests of the Union and to ensure that the use of funds in
relation to measures supported by the Facility complies with the applicable Union and national law, in particular
regarding the prevention, detection and correction of fraud, corruption and conflicts of interests. To this effect, the
Member States shall provide an effective and efficient internal control system and the recovery of amounts wrongly
paid or incorrectly used. Member States may rely on their regular national budget management systems.
10 PE 689.458Recovery and Resilience Dialogue with the European Commission Annex 2: RRF Roadmap PE 659.651 11
IPOL | Economic Governance Support Unit
Annex 3: Commission’s assessments of the overall compliance with the 11
assessment criteria of the RRF Regulation
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)
Balanced CSRs Growth, DNSH Green Digital Lasting M & T Costing Control Coherence
Response jobs… target target impact Systems
Belgium A A A A A A A A B A B
Bulgaria
Czechia A A A A A A A B B A B
Denmark A A A A A A A A B A A
Germany A A A A A A A A B A A
Estonia
Ireland A A A A A A A A B A A
Greece A A A A A A A A B A A
Spain A A A A A A A A B A A
France A A A A A A A A B A A
Croatia A A A A A A A A B A A
Italy A A A A A A A A B A A
Cyprus A A A A A A A A B A A
Latvia A A A A A A A A B A A
Lithuania A A A A A A A A B A A
A or B A A A A A A or B A or B A or B A A or B
Luxembourg
A A A A A A A A B A A
Hungary
Malta
Netherlands
Austria A A A A A A A A B A A
Poland
Portugal A A A A A A A A B A A
Romania
Slovenia A A A A A A A A B A A
Slovakia A A A A A A A A B A A
Finland
Sweden
Source: Commission assessment documents, notably the Staff Working Documents
12 PE 689.456Recovery and Resilience Dialogue with the European Commission
Annex 4: The Recovery and Resilience Plans: List of relevant documents
Recovery and Resilience Plan Commission documents Council documents National relevant website
French version (30.06.2021) Draft Council Implementing Council Implementing Decision
Decision (and annex) (23.06.2021) (6.07.2021)
Dutch version (30.06.2021)
Staff Working Document Annex (6.07.2021)
No official version in English
Belgium (23.06.2021)
available/found
Factsheet (23.06.2021)
Bulgarian version (20.07.2021; https://nextgeneration.bg/14 (in
submission status unknown) BG)
No official version in English
Bulgaria available/found
Czech version (02.06.2021) Draft Council Implementing https://www.planobnovycr.cz/ (in
Decision (and annex) (19.07.2021) CZ)
No official version in English
available/found Staff Working Document
(19.07.2021)
Czechia
Factsheet (19.07.2021)
English version (30.06.2021) Draft Council Implementing Council Implementing Decision https://en.fm.dk/publications/2021/
Decision (and annex) (17.06.2021) (6.07.2021) april/denmarks-recovery-and-
Factsheet in EN
resilience-plan/ (in EN)
Staff Working Document Annex (6.07.2021)
(17.06.2021)
Denmark
Factsheet (17.06.2021)
PE 689.456 13IPOL | Economic Governance Support Unit
Recovery and Resilience Plan Commission documents Council documents National relevant website
German version (28.04.2021) Draft Council Implementing Council Implementing Decision
Decision (and annex) (22.06.2021) (6.07.2021)
EN summary
Staff Working Document Annex (5.07.2021)
No official version in English
(22.06.2021)
Germany available/found
Factsheet (22.06.2021)
Estonian version (18.06.2021) https://rrf.ee/ (in Estonian)
EN summary (of a preliminary
Estonia draft)
English version (28.05.2021) Draft Council Implementing https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/
Decision (and annex) (16.07.2021) d4939-national-recovery-and-
resilience-plan-2021/ (in EN)
Staff Working Document
(16.07.2021)
Ireland
Factsheet (16.07.2021)
Greek version (02.04.2021) Draft Council Implementing Council Implementing Decision https://www.minfin.gr/web/guest/t
Decision (and annex) (17.06.2021) (6.07.2021) ameio-anakampses (in GR)
(press release in Greek)
Staff Working Document Annex (6.07.2021)
No official version in English
(17.06.2021)
Greece available/found
Factsheet (17.06.2021)
Spanish version (30.04.2021) Draft Council Implementing Council Implementing Decision https://portal.mineco.gob.es/es-
Decision (and annex) (16.06.2021) (6.07.2021) es/ministerio/plan_recuperacion/Pa
Executive summary and a
ginas/documentos-y-noticias.aspx
presentation available in English Staff Working Document Annex (6.07.2021)
and
(here) (16.06.2021)
Spain https://planderecuperacion.gob.es/
Factsheet (16.06.2021) (both in ES)
14 PE 689.458Recovery and Resilience Dialogue with the European Commission
Recovery and Resilience Plan Commission documents Council documents National relevant website
French version (29.04.2021) Draft Council Implementing Council Implementing Decision https://www.tresor.economie.gouv.f
Decision (and annex) (23.06.2021) (6.07.2021) r/Articles/2021/04/29/presentation-
No official version in English
du-plan-national-de-relance-et-de-
available/found Staff Working Document Annex (5.07.2021)
resilience-2021 (in FR)
(23.06.2021)
France
Factsheet (23.06.2021)
Croatian version (15.05.2021) Draft Council Implementing Council Implementing Decision https://planoporavka.gov.hr/mehan
Decision (and annex) (08.07.2021) (20.07.2021) izam-za-oporavak-i-otpornost/16 (in
No official version in English
HR)
available/found Staff Working Document Annex (20.07.2021)
(08.07.2021)
Croatia
Factsheet (08.07.2021)
Italian version (01.05.2021) Draft Council Implementing Council Implementing Decision https://italiadomani.gov.it/en/home
Decision (and annex) (22.06.2021) (6.07.2021) .html
English version
Staff Working Document Annex (6.07.2021) (in EN)
A summary is available here
(22.06.2021)
Italy
Factsheet (22.06.2021)
English version (20.05.2021) Draft Council Implementing Council Implementing Decision http://www.cyprus-
Decision (and annex) (08.072021) (20.07.2021) tomorrow.gov.cy/cypresidency/kypr
ostoavrio.nsf/home/home?opendoc
Staff Working Document Annex (20.07.2021)
ument (in CY)
(08.07.2021)
Cyprus http://www.dgepcd.gov.cy/dgepcd/
Factsheet (08.07.2021)
dgepcd.nsf/rrplan_en/rrplan_en?Op
enDocument (in EN)
PE 689.456 15IPOL | Economic Governance Support Unit
Recovery and Resilience Plan Commission documents Council documents National relevant website
Latvian version (14.06.2021) Draft Council Implementing Council Implementing Decision https://m.esfondi.lv/atveselosanas-
Decision (and annex) (22.06.2021) (6.07.2021) un-noturibas-
No official version in English
mehanisms?version=full (in LA)
available/found, only the Staff Working Document Annex (5.07.2021)
summary presentation (22.06.2021) https://m.esfondi.lv/news/recovery-
Latvia and-resilience-facility-plan-for-
Factsheet (22.06.2021)
latvia-submitted-to-the-european-
commission (in EN)
Lithuanian version (14.05.2021) Draft Council Implementing Council Implementing Decision https://finmin.lrv.lt/lt/es-ir-kitos-
Decision (and annex) (02.072021) (20.07.2021) investicijos/lietuvos-ekonomikos-
No official version in English
gaivinimo-ir-atsparumo-didinimo-
available/found Staff Working Document Annex (20.07.2021)
planas-2021-2026-m (in LT)
(02.07.2021)
Lithuania
Factsheet (02.07.2021)
French version (26.04.2021) Draft Council Implementing Council Implementing Decision https://mfin.gouvernement.lu/fr/do
Decision (and annex) (18.06.2021) (6.07.2021) ssiers/2021/planderelance.html (in
No official version in English
FR)
available/found Staff Working Document Annex (5.07.2021)
(18.06.2021)
Luxembourg
Factsheet (18.06.2021)
Hungarian version (17.05.2021) https://www.palyazat.gov.hu/helyre
allitasi-es-ellenallokepessegi-
No official version in English
eszkoz-rrf (in HU)
available/found, only English
summary https://www.palyazat.gov.hu/helyre
Hungary allitasi-es-ellenallokepessegi-
eszkoz-rrf-velemenyezes (public
consultation comments in HU)
16 PE 689.458Recovery and Resilience Dialogue with the European Commission
Recovery and Resilience Plan Commission documents Council documents National relevant website
English version (13.07.2021) - https://eufunds.gov.mt/en/Operatio
summary document nal%20Programmes/Pages/Recover
y-and-Resilience-Facility.aspx (in EN)
Malta
RRP not yet submitted (according https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/onder
to COM) werpen/europese-unie (in NL)
Netherlands
Austrian version (30.04.2021) Draft Council Implementing Council Implementing Decision
Decision (and annex) (21.06.2021) (6.07.2021)
No official version in English
available/found Staff Working Document Annex (6.07.2021)
(21.06.2021)
Austria
Factsheet (21.06.2021)
Polish version https://www.gov.pl/web/planodbu
dowy (in PL)
(03.05.2021)
No official version in English
Poland available/found
Portuguese version (22.04.2021) Draft Council Implementing Council Implementing Decision https://www.portugal.gov.pt/pt/gc2
Decision (and annex) (16.06.2021) (6.07.2021) 2/comunicacao/tema?i=131 (in PT)
No official version in English
available/found Staff Working Document Annex (5.07.2021)
Portugal (16.06.2021)
Factsheet (16.06.2021)
Romanian version https://mfe.gov.ro/pnrr/ (n RO)
No official version in English
Romania available/found
PE 689.456 17IPOL | Economic Governance Support Unit
Recovery and Resilience Plan Commission documents Council documents National relevant website
Slovenian version Draft Council Implementing Council Implementing Decision https://www.eu-skladi.si/sl/po-
Decision (and annex) (01.07.2021) (20.07.2021) 2020/nacrt-za-okrevanje-in-
(30.04.2021)
krepitev-odpornosti (in SI)
Staff Working Document Annex (20.07.2021)
No official version in English
(01.07.2021)
Slovenia available/found
Factsheet (01.07.2021)
Slovak version Draft Council Implementing Council Implementing Decision https://www.planobnovy.sk/ (in SK)
Decision (and annex) (21.06.2021) (6.07.2021)
No official version in English
available/found Staff Working Document Annex (6.07.2021)
(21.06.2021)
Slovakia
Factsheet (21.06.2021)
Finnish version (15.03.2021) https://julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi/ha
ndle/10024/162935 (in FI)
No official version in English
Finland available/found
Swedish version (28.05.2021) https://www.regeringen.se/artiklar/
2020/12/eus-aterhamtningsplan-rrf/
No official version in English
(in SE)
available/found
https://www.government.se/articles
Sweden /2020/12/eu-recovery-and-
resilience-facility-rrf/ (in EN)
Disclaimer and copyright. The opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. Reproduction
and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorised, provided the source is acknowledged and the European Parliament is given prior notice and sent a copy. © European Union, 2021.
Contact: egov@ep.europa.eu
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