SOCIAL MEDIA ADVERTISING IN Q2 2020 AND BEYOND - How the Coronavirus Will Affect Ad Prices, Spending Plans and More - Ciceron
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SOCIAL MEDIA ADVERTISING IN Q2 2020 AND BEYOND How the Coronavirus Will Affect Ad Prices, Spending Plans and More APRIL 2020 Debra Aho Williamson Contributors: Blake Droesch, Jasmine Enberg, Rimma Kats, Natalie McGranahan, Nicole Perrin
SOCIAL MEDIA ADVERTISING IN Q2 2020 AND BEYOND: HOW THE
CORONAVIRUS WILL AFFECT AD PRICES, SPENDING PLANS AND MORE
Social media advertising has a long way to go to emerge from the coronavirus pandemic. Low ad prices will
persist in Q2 and beyond, and a slow economic recovery will test marketers’ ability to nimbly manage ad budgets,
messaging and targeting.
How was social media advertising affected in the last
Estimated Short-Term* Change in Average Digital Ad
half of March? Spending due to the Coronavirus Pandemic According
to US Agency and Brand Ad Buyers, by Format,
Many marketers pulled back spending, even though users March 2020
were engaging with social media at higher rates. On % change
Facebook, CPM ad pricing fell as much as 50% in March,
-25% Paid search
according to agency and ad tech executives. Snapchat
reported stronger-than-expected revenues in Q1 but said -28% Social media
year-over-year growth in March was less than half of the -32% Digital video
rate in January and February. -34% Digital display
-35% Digital audio
Why did some marketers continue to advertise as the
crisis deepened? Note: n=272 respondents who plan on making short-term ad spending
changes due to the coronavirus; *March-June 2020
Source: Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB), "Coronavirus: Ad Revenue
Lower ad prices attracted some companies. And Impact on Publishers & Other Sellers," April 15, 2020
businesses in industries such as technology, telecom and 254636 www.eMarketer.com
consumer packaged goods (CPG) continued to spend to
KEY STAT: Among US ad buyers who are making
reach consumers whose daily activities shifted once they
short-term changes to ad spending, social ad budgets
started spending more time at home.
were expected to decline an average of 28% between
March and June 2020.
What will happen to social CPMs in Q2 and beyond?
CPMs will remain depressed through Q2 and possibly
later, subject to the pace of the US economic recovery.
There will be significant volatility depending on industry
vertical, targeting criteria and other factors. CONTENTS
What are marketers’ social ad spending plans for Q2 2 Social Media Advertising in Q2 2020 and Beyond:
and beyond? How the Coronavirus Will Affect Ad Prices, Spending
Declines will continue in April; May and June may be Plans and More
somewhat better, but nowhere near normal levels. 3 Three Weeks that Rocked Social Media
Executives we interviewed were optimistic that the
7 Social Ad Pricing
remainder of the year would improve, but as with ad
pricing, there is a lot of uncertainty at this point. 8 Advertiser Spending Plans
10 Ad Creative and Messaging
How are marketers changing social ad creative
and messaging? 13 Key Takeaways
Advertisers are shifting toward brand messaging and 14 eMarketer Interviews
away from performance-oriented advertising, at least 14 Read Next
until the US economy starts to reopen. Through social
15 Sources
listening, marketers are gaining empathy to consumers’
state of mind. 15 Editorial and Production Contributors
WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? This report covers how social
media advertising changed in March 2020 and what that
means for Q2 and beyond.
SOCIAL MEDIA ADVERTISING IN Q2 2020 AND BEYOND ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 2
THREE WEEKS THAT ROCKED The social networks are just starting to weigh in on what
happened to their businesses at the end of Q1. Snapchat,
SOCIAL MEDIA in its Q1 2020 earnings report issued last week, reported
that worldwide revenues grew 44% year over year,
Until the second half of March, social media reaching $462 million. But while revenues grew about
advertising was moving forward at its usual fast clip 58% in January and February compared with the same
in Q1. US political advertisers were spending big on period in 2019, they grew just 25% in March.
properties like Facebook. Instagram finally launched
Twitter, which reports earnings next week, said on March
ads in its long-form video offering, IGTV. Snapchat
23 that its Q1 revenues will decline “slightly” year over
launched lead-generating “Swipe Up to Call” ads, and year. We estimate that in March, revenues fell between
Super Bowl marketers took to TikTok. 9% to as much as 40% year over year due to the impact
of the coronavirus pullback.
All of the major social platforms reported strong revenue
gains for Q4 2019, and although Facebook warned in its
earnings conference call in January 2020 that a slowdown For additional analysis of what happened to Twitter’s ad
in growth was coming this year, it attributed that to global revenues in March, see the article “Twitter Removes Q1
privacy regulations and ad targeting changes. Guidance—What Does that Tell Us About the Broader
Digital Ad Market?”
Based on that positive start to the year, we issued a new
Facebook, meanwhile, also warned in March that its ad
forecast for social network ad spending in the first week
business was weakening in countries that were most
of March 2020. It stated that such spending would rise
severely impacted by the coronavirus. It reports earnings
20.7% in the US in 2020, to $43.93 billion. We said there
next week as well.
would be 21.0% US ad revenue growth for Facebook this
year, 49.1% for Instagram, 37.1% for Snapchat, 17.6% for We’ll be issuing new ad revenue forecasts for all of these
LinkedIn and 15.6% for Twitter. companies in June. But there’s no question that the
damage in the last half of March was unprecedented and
But with the effects of the pandemic in play, those
will be difficult to emerge from.
growth targets will be incredibly difficult to achieve.
We now estimate that US spending on digital display
advertising, where Facebook accounts for 43.8% of the
total, will decline by between 5.5% and 18.1% in H1 MAJOR MARKETERS PULLED SPENDING
2020, depending on the economic scenario. Ad spending cratered in March, as industries such as
travel, hospitality and entertainment were abruptly
That’s about $8 billion to $13 billion less than we
forced to pull back. As the fallout from the pandemic
expected. Our previous forecast for US digital display ad
continued, its cloud engulfed more categories:
spending—completed on March 6, 2020, at the same
automotive, brick-and-mortar retailers and restaurants.
time as our social network ad spending forecast—called
More marketers started to report that ad campaigns were
for a 19.2% increase for the full year.
being negatively affected.
For more on our forecast for digital display ad spending In research conducted by Advertiser Perceptions
in H1 2020, read “Analyst Take: How the Coronavirus Will from April 1–4, 2020, 64% of agency and marketing
Change Our US Digital Display Ad Spending Forecast.” respondents said they put the brakes on an ad campaign
until later in the year, up from 49% in a survey conducted
just a couple of weeks prior. And 44% had canceled a
campaign before it launched, up from 34%.
SOCIAL MEDIA ADVERTISING IN Q2 2020 AND BEYOND ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 3How Has the Coronavirus Pandemic Affected US Clients of other agencies also paused. At LQ Digital,
Agencies and Brand Marketers' Advertising Efforts? 25% of clients stopped ad spending entirely “with no
% of respondents, March & April 2020 sign of when that will come back,” said Greg Allum,
Wave 1 Wave 2 Percentage vice president of paid social and display advertising.
(March 17-20) (April 1-4) point change
Another 25% down-weighted media spend by 10% to
Held back a campaign from 49% 64% 15%
launching until later in the year 20% and are watching trends before determining future
Stopped or pulled a campaign 45% 50% 5% spending plans.
mid-flight
Adjusted media type usage or 48% 49% 1%
shifted budget among media And at Kenshoo, which supplies technology for
types advertisers and agencies to run digital ad campaigns,
Canceled a campaign 34% 44% 10% global media spending on social campaigns fell 27% from
completely (pre-launch)
Paused all new advertising 38% 35% -3%
February to March 2020, said John Dobrowolski, general
efforts until later in the year manager of social and apps. During the same period in
Launched a new campaign that - 24% - 2019, spending increased 6%.
we hadn't previously scheduled
Note: wave 1 n=201; wave 2 n=152
Source: Advertiser Perceptions, "Coronavirus Effect on Advertising Report:
SMALL BUSINESSES STRUGGLED
Wave 2," April 13, 2020
254647 www.eMarketer.com
Among those in the late March study whose advertising As large businesses pulled back, so did small ones.
efforts had been impacted by coronavirus concerns, 45% According to a March 23–24, 2020, Harris Poll of US small
decreased their budget for paid social media. business owners, 71% had seen their revenues decrease
since pandemic-related changes began, and 28% had
Media that US Agency and Marketing Professionals
decreases of 50% or more. Some have been able to pivot
Have Decreased* Budget from vs. Media toward new products or new ways of doing business
that Retained/Benefited from Budget Reallocation (such as via online channels). But even so, only 46% said
due to the Coronavirus, March 2020
they thought their business could last six months under
% of respondents
the current conditions, and 38% said 12 months.
Display
47%
Research firm Borrell found in a March 2020 survey of
13%
US small businesses that 52% planned to spend less on
Social media (paid)
advertising and marketing in the next six months than
45%
19%
they did in the six months prior to being surveyed. Just
Digital video
three months earlier, in December 2019, only 14% said
43% they planned to spend less.
14%
Linear TV (broadcast) The impact on social media advertising is difficult to
41% pinpoint, but it could be substantial. Facebook has
7% heavily marketed itself to small businesses, and it had
Linear TV (cable) more than 8 million active advertisers around the world
34% as of Q4 2019. In March, it launched a $100 million grant
7%
program providing assistance and ad credits to small
Search (paid)
businesses. Facebook does not report revenues it gets
24%
from small businesses, but in April 2019 it said its top 100
24%
advertisers made up less than 20% of its worldwide ad
Decreased* Retained/benefited revenues in Q1 that year.
Note: respondents who said the coronavirus impacted recent/ongoing
advertising efforts; *paused/canceled/pulled budget
Source: Advertiser Perceptions, "Coronavirus Effect on Advertising Report,"
Another point to consider: During the 2007–2009
March 26, 2020 recession, Facebook was able to build revenues by
254162 www.eMarketer.com
offering services for small businesses to create profile
At Havas Media Group, 25% of US clients paused social pages and easily buy and target ads on a self-serve basis.
ad spending in March, said Jessica Richards, global head This time around, the dependency on small business may
of social. end up being a weakness.
SOCIAL MEDIA ADVERTISING IN Q2 2020 AND BEYOND ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 4AD PRICES CRATERED Coronavirus Impact: Average CPM for US
Facebook/Instagram Ads, March 2020
As ad demand evaporated, the cost of advertising in among impressions analyzed by Gupta Media
social media fell dramatically. We obtained estimates from
$5.49
ad tech firms and agency executives that indicated that $5.31
$5.14
the price of Facebook ads had fallen as much as 50% at $5.00
$5.23
the end of Q1. $4.73 $5.18
$4.67
$4.99 $4.94
$4.89
It’s important to remember that these figures are
subjective and are dependent on the type of advertiser, $4.27 $4.24
the type of targeting criteria used, the amount of $3.68
competition in the Facebook ad auction and other factors.
$3.31
■■ For one social ad agency, CPMs on Facebook (including
Instagram) declined 15% per week in March—ending 3/
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3/ 3/ 3 3 3 3
down 50% by the last week in March, according
Note: represents activity on the Gupta Media platform, broader industry
to a research note published by the investment bank metrics may vary
Needham & Company in April 2020. Source: Gupta Media, "Understanding the effects of COVID-19 on the
Facebook Ads Marketplace," April 15, 2020
254690 www.eMarketer.com
■■ CPMs for Facebook (excluding Instagram, Messenger
and the Facebook Audience Network) were down 50% ■■ Aggregate CPMs across all Facebook placements
year over year in the last week of March, according to (including Instagram) for clients of ad agency LQ Digital
digital performance marketing company Tinuiti. CPMs fell 27% from March 12 to 31, according to Allum.
on Instagram were down 40% year over year in the
■■ Aggregate CPMs on Facebook (including Instagram) fell
same time period.
25% to 35% month over month in March, according to
■■ CPMs for Facebook and Instagram combined were Richards of Havas.
down anywhere from 35% to 50% at the end of March
■■ Average CPMs across Facebook properties (Facebook,
in the countries most affected by the coronavirus,
Instagram, Messenger and Facebook Audience
according to Gupta Media, a media agency that
Network) fell 13% for clients of Kenshoo for the week
published a publicly available Facebook CPM tracker
ending on March 21, compared with the four-week
in early April. On March 1, the average CPM Gupta’s
average for the week ending on March 21. Within retail
clients paid for Facebook and Instagram ads in the US
and ecommerce, CPMs across Facebook properties
was $4.27. Later, it dropped from $5.31 to $3.31 in a
were down 14%. In education, CPMs declined 21%.
five-day period (March 10–15). By the end of the month,
And in food and beverage, they were down 30%,
it plummeted to $2.58.
according to Dobrowolski.
■■ Facebook CPMs for an education-sector client of ad
agency Jellyfish fell 9% between February and March,
according to Kelly Schmidt, paid social director.
SOCIAL MEDIA ADVERTISING IN Q2 2020 AND BEYOND ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 5SOME MARKETERS REMAINED According to March 2020 research by Business Insider
Intelligence, 50.8% of US adults spent more time on
CONSISTENT, BUT OTHERS ACTUALLY social networks due to the coronavirus pandemic. And it’s
not just a little bit more time; it’s a lot. Nearly half (49.7%)
SPENT MORE of those who were increasing their usage said they were
Plenty of advertisers did not pause or cut social media spending 1 to 3 more hours per day, and 17.9% said they
ad spending. Several executives we spoke with said the were spending more than 3 additional hours.
lower ad prices on Facebook attracted some clients to
buy more advertising. And marketers in industries such as How Much More Time Are US Adults Spending Using
technology, telecom and CPG have generally continued Social Media Platforms due to the Coronavirus
Pandemic?
to spend in social, since they have new opportunities to
% of respondents, March 31, 2020
reach consumers whose daily activities shifted once they
started spending more time at home. 1.6% 3 hours 17.9%
■■ “A few brands have launched entirely new marketing
Note: ages 18+; daily; numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding
programs that specifically hinge on their customers’ Source: Business Insider Intelligence, "Coronavirus Consumer Survey," April
interests or concerns right now, such as health 6, 2020
and safety for their families, managing economic 254472 www.eMarketer.com
uncertainty or a renewed attention to daily household
routines,” said Liz Cole, vice president and group eMarketer and Business Insider Intelligence have joined
director for social strategy at Digitas. forces to become the leading research company focused
on digital transformation. As we come together, you can
■■ “My clients look at this and say, ‘I can buy advertising expect to see content from Business Insider Intelligence in
at 40%, 50% or 60% off. Of course I’d do that.’ This eMarketer reports and articles.
price break was a lifesaver to many D2C [direct-
A study by The Harris Poll conducted April 3–5, 2020,
to-consumer] brands,” said Gogi Gupta, founder of
found that 50% of US adults were using social media
Gupta Media.
more since the coronavirus pandemic began. By
The advertisers that are still spending are taking demographic, women were slightly more likely to be
advantage of a unique opportunity: Not only is there using social media more, and so were younger adults.
depressed demand because other marketers have
paused spending, but consumers who are stuck at home
have increased their time on social media, increasing the
supply of available impressions.
SOCIAL MEDIA ADVERTISING IN Q2 2020 AND BEYOND ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 6Are US Adults Using Social Media More During the
Coronavirus Pandemic?
SOCIAL AD PRICING
% of respondents, by demographic, April 2020
In general, we expect social ad prices to remain
Gender
Female depressed at least through Q2, and possibly longer,
53% 38% 9%
based on our qualitative research and our analysis
Male
of industry ad spending trends. Advertisers that
46% 39% 15%
continue to spend will be able to take advantage of
Age
18-34 the lower CPMs that will result from reduced demand
66% 22% 12% and increased consumer social media usage.
35-49
59% 28% 13% H2 2020 is difficult to predict, but we expect the
50-64 oversupply of impressions will decrease as US
39% 52% 9% consumers emerge from lockdown, and there may be a
65+ slow return toward pre-pandemic ad pricing.
27% 58% 15%
Income■■ However, some agency executives said they have seen in Asia see the rates of infection slow, businesses have
continued decreases in Facebook CPMs well into April. started back up again, and ad prices are rising. According
After falling 27% between March 12 and 31, aggregate to an analysis by Socialbakers, the cost per click (CPC)
CPMs across all Facebook placements for LQ Digital for advertising on Facebook and Instagram in East Asia
clients continued to decline. By April 13, they were increased 25.6% in March, while CPC fell in all other
down 37% compared with the cost prior to March 12, regions, including North America. But differences in the
Allum said. However, he noted that some clients were business environments between China and the US will
seeing significant variability in CPMs, depending on make this an imperfect comparison.
their approach.
Demand will increase slowly. As the quarter
progresses, advertisers that paused campaigns will start ADVERTISER SPENDING PLANS
to return, boosting CPMs in some categories where
there had been declines. In addition, some advertisers Many advertisers will continue to pull back media
will move funds from out-of-home (OOH) or event-related spending in Q2. We anticipate that US digital display
advertising into social. But because some industries, such ad spending will fall between 19.4% and 38.4%
as travel and entertainment, will likely still hold back ad
year over year in Q2 2020. Facebook represents an
spending during the quarter, demand in those categories
will remain low. “The major drop in rates took place in enormous part of the display ad market; as of our
Q1, and even as ad spend slowly returns to social in Q2, early March 2020 forecast, we expected it to make
we don’t anticipate a rapid increase in CPM,” said Riikka up 43.8% this year. Because Facebook accounts
Söderlund, director of brand marketing at Smartly.io, an for such a large part of the display ad market, any
ad tech platform for social advertising. pullbacks will likely impact it and the rest of the
social landscape.
The return to “normal” won’t be steady. The rate at
which CPMs will improve will depend on many factors,
We will update our US ad revenue forecasts for
including how quickly various US regions return to normal
Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, Twitter and Pinterest in
(or at least near-normal) business activities. Social CPMs
June 2020. For that reason, we’re focusing the discussion
for the retail category in a metro area where stores and
in this section on the broader social media market, rather
businesses have reopened (at least somewhat) will look
than on individual properties.
different from those for a metro still under some form of
lockdown, for instance.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN Q2
Q3 AND BEYOND April will see continued social ad spending declines;
May and June have a high degree of uncertainty. As of
The oversupply of impressions will diminish. As stores
early April, Kenshoo was expecting a 10% to 20% decline
and businesses reopen and as office workers head back
in the amount of social media ad dollars running through
to their buildings, we expect that the heavy engagement
its platform in April, Dobrowolski said. At ad agency RPA,
with social properties will fall off. Consumers are turning
“it’s very much a tempered, wait-and-see approach.
to social media now to share news, watch videos and
Maybe we’ll scale back a little bit here, but we’re going to
commiserate about the effects of the pandemic. That will
do a check-in a couple of weeks from now. We’re trying
give way as the crisis passes.
not to react super aggressively,” said Nichola Perrigo, vice
president and director of digital media.
A gradual return to pre-pandemic ad pricing. By the
end of the year, assuming that most of the US economy
For those cutting budgets, the cuts will be deep—but
is back open, we expect that social ad prices will be on
may not be as bad as for other types of digital media.
their way toward recouping their losses. But this could
According to research by the Interactive Advertising
change if a second wave of the coronavirus emerges.
Bureau (IAB), ad buyers who are planning to cut budgets
in the March–June 2020 time period expected to trim
What happens in Asia will be a good—but not
social ad budgets by 28% over those months.
perfect—model for the US recovery. As China emerges
from its coronavirus lockdown, and as other countries
SOCIAL MEDIA ADVERTISING IN Q2 2020 AND BEYOND ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 8Estimated Short-Term* Change in Average Digital Ad When deciding whether to advertise or not, paying
Spending due to the Coronavirus Pandemic According attention to the attitudes of target consumers will
to US Agency and Brand Ad Buyers, by Format, be key. Ignite Social Media found in a survey conducted
March 2020
% change in early April 2020 that just over 20% of respondents
thought brands should not advertise in social media
-25% Paid search at all during the current climate, and nearly 20% said
-28% Social media that brands should advertise only if their product
-32% Digital video was essential.
-34% Digital display
And according to The Harris Poll research conducted April
-35% Digital audio
3–5, 2020, among US adults, while 38% considered
Note: n=272 respondents who plan on making short-term ad spending ads related to COVID-19 a good thing, 26% expressed
changes due to the coronavirus; *March-June 2020
Source: Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB), "Coronavirus: Ad Revenue cynicism, believing that businesses were latching onto
Impact on Publishers & Other Sellers," April 15, 2020 the pandemic merely for the publicity.
254636 www.eMarketer.com
Ad sellers surveyed by the IAB were somewhat more
What Do US Adults Think About Companies Who
optimistic; those who had reforecasted their ad revenues Create Advertisements About the Coronavirus
were expecting a 20% decline in social. Pandemic?
% of respondents, April 2020
It is a good thing regardless of actions they have taken, it shows
Estimated Short-Term* Change in Average Digital Ad they care
Revenues due to the Coronavirus Pandemic According
38%
to US Sell-Side Advertisers, by Format, March 2020
% change vs. original plan Marketers should only advertise if they have taken action to
address the coronavirus
-19% Paid search 36%
They're just doing it for publicity, most of them feel
-20% Social media
contrived/forced
-20% Digital video 26%
-21% Digital audio Note: n=1,993 ages 18+
Source: The Harris Poll, "COVID-19 Wave 6," April 6, 2020
-25% Digital display
254544 www.eMarketer.com
Note: n=103 respondents who monetize digital media; n=15 respondents
who monetize traditional media; among respondents who are
Q3 AND BEYOND
reforecasting ad network revenues/advertising sales/supply side revenues
per channel for March-June vs. their original plan; *March-June 2020
Source: Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB), "Coronavirus: Ad Revenue
Impact on Publishers & Other Sellers," April 15, 2020
254637 www.eMarketer.com
Spending levels will remain depressed. Many of the
industry executives we spoke with said they thought
Some spending that was slated for TV or OOH will social ad spending would start a more sustained rise
reemerge within social. In early March, real estate in Q3. But with a dim economic outlook for the US, ad
company Coldwell Banker unveiled a new TV spot and spending (of any sort) will have a difficult time recovering.
tagline, slated to appear during broadcasts of the NCAA We believe things won’t bounce back as quickly as
March Madness college basketball tournament as well industry executives hope.
as on streaming services and within social media. After
hastily pulling the TV portion of the campaign when the There will be more opportunities to test new or
tournament was canceled, Coldwell Banker restarted its different ad formats, at lower costs. In an effort to
marketing efforts in early April with ads on Facebook, drum up business, we believe social ad sellers will start
Instagram and YouTube, according to a New York to discount pricing for newer ad formats (think IGTV ads,
Times article. TikTok video ads, etc.). Most advertisers won’t be in an
exploratory mood in Q2, but they may be more open in
“Some brands are pausing all ad spending including Q3 and beyond, especially if the pricing is good. Richards
social; other brands are shifting more budget into of Havas said some insertion-order-based takeover ads
social because they’ve had to either postpone or divert are already being sold at a discounted rate on some
campaigns that they had planned for other channels social properties.
like out-of-home or experiential or events,” Cole of
Digitas said.
SOCIAL MEDIA ADVERTISING IN Q2 2020 AND BEYOND ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 9Live streaming will come into vogue. According to a getting communication from brands via social media
survey by GlobalWebIndex (GWI) in late March 2020, posts than via social media ads (20% vs. 14%).
28% of the US and UK respondents were watching more
live video in social media as a result of the pandemic. In response to social distancing, D2C activewear brand
Vuori began streaming free fitness classes on Instagram
Live for its followers—including those who belong to
Social Media Activities that UK/US Internet Users Are
Doing More Frequently During the Coronavirus its Vuori Active Club (a community of local patrons who
Pandemic, March 2020 attend classes and events hosted by the company). The
% of respondents retailer also launched a conversation series featuring
Reading more news stories athletes and other interesting people to discuss having
48% resilience and mental fortitude during difficult times.
Keeping in touch with my friends more “In a way, the current environment has challenged us
41% to think differently about our business and do things
Watching more live videos we’ve never done before,” said Joe Kudla, the company’s
28% founder. “We’re also learning, finding our voice and
Sharing more news connecting with customers authentically. Whether we’re
27%
dealing with a pandemic or life as it resumes to some
Sharing more memes
form of normalcy, we’re going to march in the direction
18%
of innovation.”
Sharing more photos/videos with others
18%
Started following more journalists For more on Vuori’s approach to marketing amid the
17%
coronavirus crisis, see the Q&A “How Vuori Is Positioning
Note: ages 16-64 Its Business Strategies During the Pandemic.”
Source: GlobalWebIndex as cited in company blog, April 3, 2020
254559 www.eMarketer.com
This is worth paying attention to; live streaming
capabilities on Facebook and Instagram have been around
AD CREATIVE AND MESSAGING
for some time but haven’t gotten much attention from
Nearly every marketer has had to adjust ad creative in
marketers—or frankly, from the properties themselves.
(For good reason; the man who massacred 51 people in the weeks since the pandemic began. According to a
a New Zealand mosque streamed it on Facebook, and late March 2020 survey by the Association of National
others have used Facebook Live to show crimes, suicides Advertisers (ANA), more than 90% of US advertisers
and other awful things.) have done so since mid-March.
But when celebrities started turning to live platforms to And the changes will continue—89% of the 196
stream concerts from their homes, the concept got a respondents who were surveyed said they will make
renewed push. And with the extended cancellation of additional adjustments such as developing messaging
sports and music events, consumers are showing interest showing empathy, changing language in ads or adjusting
in watching them on live streams, according to GWI. images that show people close together.
More love for organic social media. The concept
of owned social media—a brand’s Facebook page,
Instagram account, Twitter account, etc.—has gotten WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN Q2
new attention during quarantines. Some marketers that More emphasis on branding objectives in social
stopped paid ad campaigns shifted marketing efforts to advertising. Many social ad formats simply can’t be
their owned channels. used right now, such as ads that direct users to retail
stores or that use location data for targeting deals and
In a study of how brands reacted on social media to the offers. Until the US is more widely open for business,
coronavirus crisis, Socialbakers found that as worldwide marketers will instead shift dollars toward social ads with
brands decreased paid spending in Q1 2020, they slightly branding objectives.
increased organic posts. And US adults surveyed by
Opinium in March were slightly more likely to prefer
SOCIAL MEDIA ADVERTISING IN Q2 2020 AND BEYOND ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 10That’s generally the case for other forms of advertising Findings from a GWI study bear this out. In research
as well. March 2020 research by the IAB found that conducted in 17 countries from March 31 to April 2,
45% of US agency and brand buy-side decision-makers it found that the types of advertising that consumers
planned to decrease their use of performance-marketing most approved of provided practical information
messaging, while 37% planned to increase brand on how to manage their situation (57% strongly
equity advertising. approved), or showed how a company has suspended
normal production to produce needed supplies (42%
strongly approved).
US Agency and Brand Buy-Side Decision-Makers Who
Plan to Change Select Advertising Messaging
Strategies due to the Coronavirus, by Marketing That doesn’t mean ignoring the coronavirus completely.
Strategy, March 2020 Just 17% of respondents in GWI’s survey said
% of respondents in each group they strongly approved of brands running normal
Mission-based marketing ad campaigns.
42% 45% 14%
Cause-related marketing “Our research indicates that consumers are looking to
41% 46% 14%
be engaged amid the pervasive negativity and isolation,”
Brand equity said Emily Anthony, senior director of media services
37% 32% 31%
at Merkle. “They want to be connected and uplifted,
Performance marketing demonstrating preference for brands taking action and
28% 27% 45%
doing good.”
Increase No change Decrease
Note: n=245 respondents who plan on making short-term (March-June)
advertising messaging strategy changes as a result of coronavirus; For more on current consumer attitudes toward
numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding advertising, see “Consumers Don’t Think Brands Should
Source: Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB), "Coronavirus Ad Spend
Impact: Buy-Side," March 26, 2020 Stop Advertising During Coronavirus Pandemic.”
254177 www.eMarketer.com
Ad messaging will have to stay flexible. As the US
At Kenshoo, 23% to 24% of media placed on Facebook looks toward emerging from stay-at-home orders and
had a brand-oriented objective in March, compared with restarting commerce and services, those activities will
about 16% for all of 2019, Dobrowolski said. One national happen at different rates depending on the spread of
retail chain that previously used Kenshoo’s platform to the virus. As a result, ad messaging will be in a possibly
run conversion-oriented campaigns on Facebook to drive unprecedented state of flux.
traffic in-store has now moved all of its advertising toward
brand-oriented objectives such as awareness and reach, In the early days of the crisis, agencies like Digitas had
Dobrowolski added. to redo online social media campaigns that sometimes
consisted of hundreds of ads because some of them
Digital-only businesses are different, however; for them, were no longer relevant, Cole said. That work will be only
this is a short-term opportunity to double down and magnified as advertisers face an overwhelming array of
drive even more demand, such as app downloads, video “return to (somewhat) normal” scenarios.
streams and online purchases.
Ad imagery will need continued scrutiny. When
Consumers will want ads that help them meet Pattern89, a company that does predictive marketing
their needs in concrete ways. The first wave of using AI, analyzed image and video ads from more than
coronavirus-related advertising in mid- to late March was 1,100 advertisers on Facebook and Instagram in March, it
aimed at showing consumers that brands cared about found 27.4% fewer visuals of people kissing, hugging or
them, and that they were responding to the crisis. But touching. The number of ads showing washing behaviors
those sorts of platitudes quickly wore thin, especially (hands, faces, splashing water) experienced a sixfold
when it seemed like every advertiser was saying some increase since March 12. And ads showing scenes inside
form of “We’re here for you.” In Q2, consumers will a home, with a pet or showing a TV, were down 20%,
want more. possibly to avoid reminding people of being quarantined.
SOCIAL MEDIA ADVERTISING IN Q2 2020 AND BEYOND ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 11For now, it’s important to not show creative executions Ads will be less polished—but that’s on purpose.
“that depict big groups of people in close contact, or The coronavirus crisis has taught businesses how to be
that show people doing behaviors that they’re currently resourceful and work with what they have. Ads have been
either unable or prohibited to do by a local government,” created with stock footage, with smartphone cameras
Cole said. and on FaceTime. They are less polished because
they have to be. As a result, marketers will realize that
perfection is no longer necessary. That’s something that
Q3 AND BEYOND the influencers who create Instagram Stories have been
trying to demonstrate for years, and that the millions who
Advertisers will ease up on campaigns specifically make content for TikTok are demonstrating every day.
tied to the coronavirus and quarantines. Marketers
flooded out such messaging in recent weeks, which “The way we shoot things has changed,” said Noah
was an appropriate tactic in the early days. In a study Mallin, chief brand strategist at IMGN Media, a social
conducted by Smartly.io among 800 US adults in the first media content publisher. “In some ways, I think it’s made
week of April, 83% of respondents said they wanted the content more relatable. Content that feels a little
brands to address the pandemic directly in their social more raw, if it’s done right, can be as good if not better on
media advertising. certain channels than highly produced content.”
Assuming that most stay-at-home orders have eased Going forward, advertisers will take these learnings
up in Q3, advertisers will shift toward themes related to into future social media ad campaigns. Having to work
getting back to normal. But they will have to keep a close with lower creative and production quality will result in
pulse on pandemic-related indicators to know when it’s new creative ad formats that involve influencer media,
time to do this. If COVID-19 cases begin to mount again user-generated content and partner co-branding, Anthony
and restrictions are extended, advertisers will need other of Merkle said.
messages at the ready.
There will be stronger emphasis on social listening.
“Early on, as part of our communication strategy in social Keeping abreast of consumer sentiment, not only toward
and beyond, we leaned heavily into this idea of brand your brand but generally about how consumers are
action and used our social platforms to bring awareness feeling, will remain critically important. Social listening
to as many people as possible,” said Mike Dossett, vice hasn’t always been valued as an insights tool, but it will
president and director of digital strategy at RPA. Looking likely see a resurgence in the months ahead.
ahead to Q2 and beyond, the agency will focus on making
sure its clients’ investments “are not entirely removed “There is a huge interest across all clients in real-time
from the equities that they have built as a brand. We social listening and understanding how their customers—
know that if we’re preparing for the new normal and the not just their current customers but their potential
next customer coming out of this, we need to integrate customers—are being affected by the current situation,”
those foundational elements into our current messaging.” Cole said.
Context will be critical. Advertisers will need to pay Loyalty that’s built now—and maintained—will
extremely close attention to not only the messaging pay dividends later. There’s an enormous opportunity
and the tone of their social advertising, but also other right now to connect with consumers. Any brand
factors such as the customer’s location or the state of affinity or brand loyalty that’s built during this time will
the economic recovery in their region. “Context will continue once this is over. “We’re having those types of
start to matter even more—who an ad is served to, conversations with clients, and I think social platforms
where they live, what economic and health factors are and their ad formats are a big piece of that, because
affecting them, and what is being advertised. The risks of it’s where people are spending their time right now,”
sending a message that is inappropriate or insensitive to Anthony said.
its recipient will be heightened for a long time,” Cole of
Digitas said.
SOCIAL MEDIA ADVERTISING IN Q2 2020 AND BEYOND ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 12KEY TAKEAWAYS
■■ Social media advertising spending plunged in
March. The economic fallout caused by the coronavirus
pandemic led marketers to cancel campaigns and
reduce budgets. Of those that continued spending,
many shifted campaigns toward branding objectives
and away from performance goals.
■■ CPMs on Facebook experienced dramatic declines
that in some cases are continuing into April. Some
of our ad agency and ad tech sources saw price
drops as much as 50% in March, depending on the
advertiser, targeting options, auction competition and
other criteria.
■■ Ad spending will remain depressed into Q2, and
possibly longer. The percentage of advertisers that
are holding back ad campaigns or canceling campaigns
completely has increased, according to Advertiser
Perceptions. With the economic recovery likely to go on
for many months, social budgets will not be immune to
the larger cutbacks in advertising spending.
■■ Advertisers must be especially careful when
developing ad messaging and creative for social
media. They will need to use tools such as social
listening to understand the evolving mindset of their
customers, and pay close attention to imagery, context
and targeting.
SOCIAL MEDIA ADVERTISING IN Q2 2020 AND BEYOND ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 13EMARKETER INTERVIEWS
eMarketer was founded on the idea that multiple sources and a variety of perspectives will lead to better analysis.
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please fill out this form.
Greg Allum Justin Marshall
Vice President, President
Paid Social and Display Advertising Wunderman Thompson Seattle
LQ Digital Interviewed April 2, 2020
Interviewed March 31, 2020
Nichola Perrigo
Emily Anthony Vice President and Director, Digital Media
Senior Director, Media Services RPA
Merkle Interviewed April 9, 2020
Interviewed April 2, 2020
Jessica Richards
Liz Cole Global Head of Social
Vice President and Group Director, Havas Media Group
Social Strategy Interviewed April 2, 2020
Digitas
Interviewed April 2, 2020 Kelly Schmidt
Paid Social Director
John Dobrowolski Jellyfish
General Manager, Social and Apps Interviewed April 2, 2020
Kenshoo
Interviewed April 2, 2020 Riikka Söderlund
Director, Brand Marketing
Mike Dossett Smartly.io
Vice President and Director, Digital Strategy Interviewed April 15, 2020
RPA
Interviewed April 9, 2020
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Gogi Gupta
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Joe Kudla
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Founder
Vuori Looking Back at the Great Recession, as the World
Interviewed March 31, 2020 Faces a Coronavirus Pandemic
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Noah Mallin Google Duopoly?
Chief Brand Strategist
IMGN Media
Interviewed April 1, 2020
SOCIAL MEDIA ADVERTISING IN Q2 2020 AND BEYOND ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 14SOURCES
Advertiser Perceptions
Association of National Advertisers
Borrell Associates
Business Insider Intelligence
GlobalWebIndex
Gupta Media
The Harris Poll
Ignite Social Media
Interactive Advertising Bureau
Kenshoo
Needham & Company
Pattern89
Smartly.io
Socialbakers
Tinuiti
EDITORIAL AND
PRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS
Anam Baig Senior Editor
Joanne DiCamillo Senior Production Artist
Donte Gibson Chart Editor
Katie Hamblin Chart Editorial Manager
Dana Hill Director of Production
Erika Huber Copy Editor
Ann Marie Kerwin Executive Editor, Content Strategy
Stephanie Meyer Senior Production Artist
Heather Price Deputy Editor
Magenta Ranero Senior Chart Editor
Amanda Silvestri Senior Copy Editor
SOCIAL MEDIA ADVERTISING IN Q2 2020 AND BEYOND ©2020 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 15The leading research firm for marketing in a digital world.
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