STANDING ON THE VERGE OF MOMENTOUS CHANGE: AUTOMOTIVE SUPPLIER INDUSTRY IN TURKEY JANUARY 2020 - PWC

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STANDING ON THE VERGE OF MOMENTOUS CHANGE: AUTOMOTIVE SUPPLIER INDUSTRY IN TURKEY JANUARY 2020 - PWC
Standing on the Verge of
Momentous Change:
Automotive Supplier Industry in Turkey
January 2020

                                         In Partnership With
STANDING ON THE VERGE OF MOMENTOUS CHANGE: AUTOMOTIVE SUPPLIER INDUSTRY IN TURKEY JANUARY 2020 - PWC
STANDING ON THE VERGE OF MOMENTOUS CHANGE: AUTOMOTIVE SUPPLIER INDUSTRY IN TURKEY JANUARY 2020 - PWC
Contents

Introduction   04   Global Trends in Automotive Industry                  06   Automotive Suppliers in Turkey                          12

                    Changing Nature of the Value Chain and Capabilities   06   Understanding the Problem of Technology Adoption        14

                    New Partnerships and Increasing Volume of M&A’s       08   Exploring the Right Direction: Firm and Country Level   16
                                                                               Strategy Requirement

                                                                               Conclusion: Opportunities on the Horizon and            18
                                                                               Key Lessons
STANDING ON THE VERGE OF MOMENTOUS CHANGE: AUTOMOTIVE SUPPLIER INDUSTRY IN TURKEY JANUARY 2020 - PWC
4   |   Standing on the Verge of Momentous Change: Automotive Supplier Industry in Turkey

    Introduction

    After several years of continued growth,                         Exhibit 1
    revenues and margins for OEMs and
    automobile suppliers are now under                           ∑Sales of Top 11 OEMs1 (Billion EUR)                                                      ∑Sales of Top Suppliers2,4 (Billion EUR)
    pressure (Exhibit 1). Companies are
    now dealing with deep-rooted shifts in                                                                                                                                                                        +3%   Top 2018
                                                                                                                                      -1%
    the value chain and are being forced                                                         +6%
    to play outside their traditional fields                                                                                                                                                                              +1%      Top 2017
    of expertise. Facing with competitive                                                       1,423        1,472           1,508          1,498                                       +7%
    pressure from technology companies,                               1,197        1,248                                                                                                                        899        922
                                                                                                                                                                                        821           856
    OEMs and suppliers are now looking
                                                                                                                                                                675        700
    to reducing their cost base, making                                                                                                                                                                        7,8%       7,0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                      8,0%
    investments in technology and building                                                                                                                                              7,8%
                                                                                                                                                               7,2%        7,8%
    up new competencies.                                               6.1%         5.7%         5.0%         5.7%           6.0%           5.2%                                                                64%        64%
                                                                                                                                                                                        60%           64%
                                                                                                                                                               58%         58%
                                                                                                                                                               6,7%        6,9%         7,0%          6,8%     7,1%       6,4%
                                                                      2013         2014         2015         2016            2017           2018               2013        2014        2015           2016     2017       2018

                                                                      Sales OEMs1           Sales of 40 system integrators           Sales of other top supplier3     CAGR of sales        CAGR of top suppliers 2017      EBIT-margin

                                                                 1
                                                                     Top OEMs: VW, Toyota, Daimler, GM, Ford, FCA, Honda, BMW Group, Nissan, Hyundai, SAIC Motors
                                                                 2
                                                                     Sales are partly based on extrapolations / estimates
                                                                 3
                                                                     Among others Bosch, Continental, Denso, Faurecia, Hyundai Mobis, Magna
                                                                 4
                                                                     Joyson Group/Tenneco with sales growth 2017-2018 (purchase of Takata and Federal Mogul respectively)
                                                                 CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate
                                                                 Source: Strategy& analysis
STANDING ON THE VERGE OF MOMENTOUS CHANGE: AUTOMOTIVE SUPPLIER INDUSTRY IN TURKEY JANUARY 2020 - PWC
5

Major trends, signaling the future of           Exhibit 2
the industry are clustered around
connected, autonomous, shared and           Country Comparison of OEM’s Partnerships1                                  Purpose of OEM’s Partnerships1,2
electric-drivetrain (CASE) technologies.
These trends are inducing the value
chain to alternate, and capabilities are                                                                        119                              56%
transforming. New competitors, mainly
                                                                                                                 8
software-oriented companies, are coming
                                                                       86                   91
into play and new forms of partnerships                                                                          35
are emerging (Exhibit 2). To address the                                                    13
                                                                       23
new market reality, suppliers are in need                                                   25                   12
of a solid understanding of the changing           41                                                                                                                         20%
                                                                       33                                                                                       15%
landscape and conclusions on whether                2                                       26
                                                                                                                 64        9%
and how to adjust their existing business          14
                                                   10                  18
models.                                                                                     27
                                                   15                  12
                                                 2015                 2016                2017                  2018   Electrified            Autonomous       Shared      Connected

                                                            America          Asia    Europe           Germany                   Electrified       Autonomous    Shared   Connected

                                            1
                                                Cooperation with an OEM as initiator was considered
                                            2
                                                Sample from > 100 companies
                                                Source: Strategy& analysis
STANDING ON THE VERGE OF MOMENTOUS CHANGE: AUTOMOTIVE SUPPLIER INDUSTRY IN TURKEY JANUARY 2020 - PWC
6   |   Standing on the Verge of Momentous Change: Automotive Supplier Industry in Turkey

    Global Trends in the Automotive Industry

    Changing Nature of the                                           Exhibit 3
                                                                                                    Connected                                            Electric                                        Automated                                            Shared
    Value Chain and Capabilities
    Technology-driven transformation is
    inducing upward and downward mobility
                                                                              Refocus:                                            Shift:                                             New role:                                          New role:
    across the value chain by promoting
    formerly Tier 2 or 3 digital companies to                                 1. Concentrate on product ideation                  1. Reduce ICE production capacity due              1. Focus on partnerships and close                 1. Shift towards selling to mobility
                                                                                 and design, and outsource non-core                  to electric powertrain shift (motor/               collaboration with tech companies                  providers to supply vehicles for their
                                                                 OEM
    Tier 1 and causing OEMs to lose their                                        back-end/R&D/technology solutions                   battery cell production outsourced                 and suppliers to reduce investment                 car-sharing service (B2C to B2B)
    strategic standing. Thus, suppliers are in                                                                                       as little opportunity for differentiation,         costs in, for example, R&D
                                                                              2. Move into direct-to-consumer                        and high price pressure)1                                                                          2. Maintain customer-facing role as a
    a position for exploring new software and                                    services instead of offering them                                                                   2. Maintain close interaction with                    shared mobility/fleet provider
    service opportunities as their present-                                      through a dealer network                         2. Enter partnerships for sourcing                    customers by being a mobility
                                                                                                                                     battery raw materials                              provider
    day core processes are becoming
    gradually irrelevant. At each point on the
    automotive value chain, including R&D,
    production, distribution, marketing &
                                                                              New role:                                           New role:                                          New role:                                          New role:
    sales and aftersales/customer services,
                                                                 Supplier

    we expect to keep observing up/                                           1. Fill the opportunity gap left by                 1. Independently and/or in partnership             1. Enter into deeper co-operation                  1. Work directly with customers in
                                                                                 OEMs by providing independent                       with OEMs, enter market for R&D/                   with OEM’s R&D processes, with                     co-operation with a mobility/fleet
    downstream movements and changing                                            back-end/ technology solutions                      manufacturing of battery cells,                    stronger end-product responsibility                provider to offer enabling services
    business models as illustrated (Exhibit 3).                                  leveraging scale benefits (e.g. digital             packs and electric motors2                                                                            (e.g. digital services for mobility
                                                                                 infrastructure)                                                                                     2. Take on a customer-facing role by                  provider)
                                                                                                                                  2. Enter partnerships for raw material                building fully assembled automated
                                                                              2. Provide customer solutions B2B2C                    sourcing to secure supply (e.g.                    shuttles and/or enabling services               2. Enter fleet operating services by
                                                                                 (e.g. vehicle features on demand)                   lithium)                                           (e.g. digital services for fleet                   managing all service tasks for
                                                                                                                                                                                        operators)                                         mobility providers

                                                                            Automotive supply chain including: R&D, production, distribution, marketing & sales, aftersales/customer service (adjustable per case)           Reduction/extension/shift of supply chain down-/upstream
                                                                            Core business today (still relevant tomorrow)        Core business today (different strategic approach tomorrow)         Core business today (irrelevant tomorrow)      Potential new business tomorrow
                                                                 1
                                                                     Alternatively: extension into e-motor and battery cell production possible                2
                                                                                                                                                                   Note: high necessity to refocus for traditional IC-focused suppliers
                                                                     Source: Strategy& analysis
7

                                                 Exhibit 4

                                             Five New Ways to Play for Auto-Industry Suppliers
Particularly, for suppliers who are
                                                 1 Smart Infrastructure              2 Automated Shuttle                    3 Platform Provider                     4 Mobility Intelligence            5 Vehicle Feature on
operating over traditional internal                  Enabler                              Manufacturer                                                                     Provider                       Demand Provider
combustion-focused business, we are                  Digitally-enabled traffic            Fully assembled shuttle                Platform-as-a-service                     Mobility software              Product-as-a-service
estimating an increasing number of R&D               solutions for integrated             for public and corporate               for business partners                     services and centralized       for end consumers
                                                     mobility systems to                  institutions (e.g. city                (e.g. OEMs, (public)                      data analytics for fleet       through e.g. mobility
activities with OEMs over battery cells,             governments/ institutions            councils/ shuttle service              mobility providers, fleet                 operators and mobility         providers, allowing for
packs and electric motors. Additionally,             (e.g. city councils)                 provider)                              operators)                                service providers              direct monetization
we present five potential new ways to
                                                                        x                       x                                              x                                            x                     x
play for suppliers to shift their business
in the near future, together with success            Hardware Software Service            Hardware Software Service               Hardware Software Service                Hardware Software Service      Hardware Software Service
factors, which are necessary but not                 Success factors1:                    Success factors1:                      Success factors1:                         Success factors1:              Success factors1:
sufficient (Exhibit 4).                              • Technology excellence              • Production excellence                • Agile development                       • Real-time data               • Partnership
                                                     • Integration capabilities           • Cost efficiency / lean               • Flexible & open domain                    analytics                      management
                                                     • System adaptability                  SC2                                  • Customer centricity                     • Service integration          • Customer centricity
                                                                                          • Fast time-to-market                                                            • Customer centricity          • User experience
                                                     Example: Intelligent                 Example of international               Example of global                         Example of German              Example of
                                                     traffic-management                   automotive supplier:                   industrial supplier:                      OEM’s mobility                 manufacturing
                                                     system for a Chinese                 autonomous, electric,                  PaaS3 for the Internet of                 service company: fleet         company/ supplier:
                                                     city that integrates                 shared people mover                    Things with end-to-end                    management software            fully automated “valet
                                                     transport information for            in co-operation with                   solutions incl. hardware,                 for intelligent mobility       parking” (parking and
                                                     all travel options                   mobility start-up and                  software and services                     solutions                      car return upon user’s
                                                                                          system provider                                                                                                 request via app)

                                                     Low to high focus areas
                                             1
                                                 Outlined success factors are most relevant ones but not limited to these   2
                                                                                                                                Supply chain   3
                                                                                                                                                   Platform-as-a-service
                                                 Note: x = key success factor
                                                 Source: Strategy& analysis, Siemens.com, Alphabet.com, Boschservicesolutions.com, Microsoft.com, Continential.com, Zf.com, Mahle.com
8   |   Standing on the Verge of Momentous Change: Automotive Supplier Industry in Turkey

                                                                                            New Partnerships and
                                                                                            Increasing Volume of M&A’s
                                                                                            In order to gear up for the new era,
                                                                                            acquisition of software competencies or
                                                                                            partnership agreements are becoming
                                                                                            more and more widespread among the
                                                                                            industry players, namely OEMs, system
                                                                                            integrators and auto suppliers. Yet, the
                                                                                            underlying reason is now different than
                                                                                            aggressive sales growth or geographical
                                                                                            expansion. Henceforth, M&A activities
                                                                                            are targeting portfolio extensions towards
                                                                                            software and electrics / electronics
                                                                                            intensive areas, ultimately leveraging the
                                                                                            acquired know-how to make existing
                                                                                            products fit for the future. The intertwined
                                                                                            figure (Exhibit 5) illustrates how leading
                                                                                            system integrators are opening up
                                                                                            new business areas through strategic
                                                                                            acquisitions. In Turkey we can also
                                                                                            observe similar partnerships (e.g., around
                                                                                            the national car project).
9

 Exhibit 5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Continental has               Became part of           Continental announced the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              the Continental          acquisition of Quantum Inventions
Cooperation Autonomous Driving & Future Mobility                                                                                                                                                                                                                completed the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                acquisition of Elektrobit     Elektrobit Software
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Automotive Group, a           subsidiary
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                specialist for innovative
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                software solutions.
                                                                       Sensor heating         Protect your customers and                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Expanding mobility services and
                                                      Automotive       for autonomous         drivers from higher susceptibility                                                                                                                                                                                                         strengthening position in the USA
                 Identification and diagnosis         diagnostic       cars on ice and        associated with connected and                                                                                                                                     Continental acquired the LIDAR
                 of safety risks of electronic        technology       snow                   autonomous vehicles                                          Development of advanced camera                                          Research on                  business of Advanced Scientific                                                                             Enhancement of map and
                 components in the vehicle                                                                                                                 detection technology required for                                       autonomous vehicles          Concepts (ASC) to complete its                                                                              location data with sensor
                                                                                                                        Significant contribution to        safe self-propelled systems                                                                          range of environmental sensors                                                                              data from vehicles
Development of an image                                                                                                 the company’s latest Series                                                                      Hyundai Mobis and KT started           for driver assistance systems
                                                                                                                        B financing round.                 Valeo acquired the German company                             developing 5G-based Smart              and automated driving.                                                                                                  Development of state-of-
recognition technology
                                                                                                                                                           peiker, a major provider of onboard                           Connected Car technology                                                                                                                                       the-art technologies for
that uses image
                                                                                                                                                           telematics and mobile communications                                                                                                                                                                                         driverless vehicles and
processing technology                                                                                                               Development
                                                                                                                                                           solutions. The acquisition will allow                          Valeo acquired the German                                                                                                                                     development of new fields
and is dedicated to deep                                                                                                            of integrated
                                                                                                                                                           Valeo to expand its range of connectivity                      start-up company gestigon, which                                                                                                                              of competence
learning.                                                                                                                           control software
                                                                                                                                    used for               related products                                               specializes in the development of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          3D image processing software for       Development of ultrathin                                                                                    Focused on the enhancement of motion
Development of software                                                                                                             automated
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          the cabin of the vehicle.              augmented reality head-up                                                                                   control systems and drive components
for control units in                                                                                                                driving,               Improvement and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 displays                                                                                                    for automated driving
automotive engines                                                                                                                  vehicle motion         personalization of
                                                                                                                                    control and            vehicle comfort and                                                                                                                                                                    Introducing a new feature called “Turo Go”
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Comprehensive strategic cooperation
                                                                                                                                    other related          safety for drivers and                                                                                                                                                                 that allows users to book, locate and unlock
Internet of Things (IoT)-based                                                                                                                                                                                                     Development and supply        in the areas of automated driving,
                                                                                                                                    functions.             their passengers                                                                                                                                                                       vehicles using the Turo smartphone app
manufacturing, advanced driver                                                                                                                                                                                                     of next generation            networked vehicles and intelligent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 mobility services                           Continental
assistance, automated driving and more.          Automated                                                                                                                                                                         networked cars and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             announced
                                                 driving and                                                                                                                                                                       mobility services
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             cooperation with
                                                 electromobility                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             NTT DOCOMO           Providing world-
                                                                                                       Advanced in-vehicle systems                                                                                                            Development and promotion of a new safety                                           class Intelligent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             to develop 5G
                                                                                                       used for automated driving                                                                                                             standard for autonomous vehicles (AV) based                                         Transport
             Drive the localization, perception,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             technology for
                                                                                                       and other control actions                                                                                                              on Responsibility-Sensitive Safety (RSS),                                           Systems (ITS)
             and route planning functions for a                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              networked cars
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Mobileye’s mathematical safety concept.                                             solutions to meet
             completeautonomous driving system
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  the growing
                                                                                                                                                  Valeo joined Apollo, the                                                                                                                                                        market demands          Strengthening              Accelerating innovation
 Bosch has partnered with Canadian startup               Provision of connectivity        Bosch and TomTom                                        autonomous ecosystem of Baidu                        Valeo announced a partnership                                                                                              in China                of position as a           for mobility services
 Mojio to wirelessly connect more vehicles to            solutions for its electric       cooperate on innovative                                                                                      agreement with start-up company                                                                                                                    major supplier of
 a variety of digital services, from insurance           car Sion                         mapping technology for                                                                                       Ellcie Healthy to accelerate the                                                                                                                   cockpit systems
                                                                                                                                                                                                       development of intelligent networked                                                                 Production of modern assistance
 companies to emergency responders                                                        automated driving
                                                                                                                                                                                                       eyewear for motoring.                                                                                systems and autonomous driving
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            functions for cars, commercial vehicles
Ensuring a seamless                                                                                              Robert Bosch GmbH and e.GO Mobile AG                                                                                                                                                       and off-highway applications
connection between vehicle and                                                                                   have announced a cooperation in the areas of
everything(vehicle-to-everything -V2X)                                                                           connectivity and after-sales services.                                                                                                        ZF has partnered with Mobileye to offer next-generation                      Development of interior and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               camera systems to major automotive manufacturers                             safety technologies for self-
                                                                                                                            Bosch and Baidu sign framework                                                                                                                                                                                  driving cars, known as the
                                                                                                                            agreement on strategic cooperation to                                                                                                                                                                           “cockpit of the future”
                                                                                                                            jointly develop intelligent mobility in China                                                                                      Development of the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               first blockchain-based
                                                                                                                    Development of AI self-driving systems for mass                                                                                            automotive transaction
                                                                                                                    market vehicles                                                                                                                            platform for mobility
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               services
Using information collected by Bosch                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Accelerating the
                                                                                                Digital mapping
radar and video sensors in vehicles                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  development of
                                                                                                company jointly                                                                                                  Challenges to the vehicle seat shown
to create and update maps                                                 Offer car                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  electronic solutions for
                                                                                                controlled by the car                                                                                            by designs for the future car and the
                                                                          pools to your                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              the networked vehicle.
                                           Secure hypervisor                                    manufacturers BMW,                                                                                               inclusion of autonomous driving
                                           base for the ETAS              employees             Daimler and Audi.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ZF has signed a            (AI) -based                                New joint mobility solution by
                                           RTA-VRTE software
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            cooperation agreement      vehicle control                            integrating the autonomously powered
                                           solution that includes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            with the long-distance     unit (ZF ProAI)                            e.GO Mover Shuttle with Transdev’s
                                           the AUTOSAR Adaptive
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            mobility provider          for automated                              operating system.
                                           Platform Standard
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            FlixMobility to develop    driving
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            new target groups.         applications

Source: Strategy& analysis                                                                                (Strategic) partnership                                           Strategic investment (e.g. M&A)                         Investment                      Others
10    |   Standing on the Verge of Momentous Change: Automotive Supplier Industry in Turkey

     Historically, companies investing in cost                     Exhibit 6
     leadership have always gone for M&A
     to achieve economies of scale through                        High-Level Overview of the Consolidation Trend
     industry consolidation. In conjunction                       Amount of Mega Deals and Deal Value
     with the rising new trends explained                         2009 – 2019 YTD                                                                   18                                   18                   Fiat Chrysler and
     above, our observations suggest that the                                                                                                                                   17                            Peugeot owner PSA
     amount of mega deals are increasing in                                                                                                          1                                   1                    Group have announced
                                                                                                                                                                 16
                                                                                                                                                     1                          1
     the industry (Exhibit 6). It is also worth                                                                                                                                          2                    the merger of two
                                                                                                                                                                                1                  14         companies on October
     mentioning that supplier sales growth is
                                                                                                                                                                                                              31, 2019.
     often accelerated by M&A in all markets
     across the globe including countries that                                                                                                                                                                The deal would create
                                                                                                                                                     9            7                                           the world’s third-largest
     have historic organic industry growth.                                                                                                                                              8
                                                                                                                                                                                9                   7         automaker and help
     However, targeted expansion of the
                                                                                                                                                                                                              spread the huge cost of
     product portfolio, concentrating on the                                                                                                                                                                  developing electric and
     positioning in the future, has already                                                                                             6                                                                     autonomous vehicles
     started to be considered as strategically                                                                5
     much more important than revenue                                                                                      4            2                         9
     growth through M&A.                                                3                         3            1
                                                                                                                                                     7                                   7          7
                                                                                                                                                                                6
                                                                         1            1                                    3
                                                                                                               4                        4
                                                                         1
                                                                         1                                                 1
                                                                      2009         2010         2011        2012         2013         2014         2015         2016        2017        2018      2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                  YTD
                                                                      Closed        Ongoing           USD 10+bn       USD 5bn - USD 9.99bn            USD 1bn - USD 4.99bn           USD 0.5bn - USD 0.99bn

                                                                    Source: Strategy& supplier database (data status 2010 – 2018), Thompson Reuters, Cap IQ, Mergermarket.com
11
12    |   Standing on the Verge of Momentous Change: Automotive Supplier Industry in Turkey

     Automotive Suppliers in Turkey

     The Turkish automotive industry faces                       1.    Firstly, suppliers in Turkey are facing       Exhibit 7
     similar challenges as is the case globally:                       several challenges in the adoption
     declining volumes and margins. The                                of new technologies, resulting in low     Top 10 OEM Sales1 – Turkey (Billion USD)
     downward trend at the center of the value                         value-added products and drop in
     chain is spreading out to lower levels in                         profits given increasing demand for
                                                                                                                                                                        -0.7%           CAGR
     recent years.                                                     technology-based products globally.
                                                                                                                                                                                       2014-18
     In 2018, sales from production went                         2.    Secondly, there is a lack of strategy                            CAGR                     25.9           25.7
                                                                                                                                       +11.1%
     down by 0.7% and 2%, compared to                                  on a firm and country level. The lack                                                     7%              9%     24%       Other OEMs2
                                                                                                                                                   22.4          7%
     2017 for OEMs and auto suppliers,                                 of strategy results in trying to get                                                                      7%     -3%
                                                                                                                                                    6%           9%
     respectively. For the period between                              through the day, but not considering            18.9          19.1           7%                           9%      2%
     2014 and 2018, Top 10 auto supplier’s                             on which market positioning (way                 5%            5%           10%
                                                                                                                                                                 17%            14%      7%
     sales having even dropped by 1.6%                                 to play), capabilities and products             12%           10%
     annually on average (Exhibits 7&8).                               are required in the future to remain            11%           12%           19%
                                                                       competitive. Investments are either                                                       17%            16%      1%
     Export volumes experienced negative                                                                               15%           16%
                                                                       not made at all or are still not made                                       17%
     growth in the first half of 2019, compared                        in the right areas.                                                                                              26%
                                                                                                                       21%           19%                         20%            20%
     to the same period in 2018. In this period,
                                                                                                                                                   17%
     exports of auto suppliers dropped by 3%.                                                                          11%            9%

     According to our discussions with                                                                                                                           24%            25%      7%
                                                                                                                       26%           28%           24%
     industry leaders, there are two underlying
     reasons that hinder the future growth and                                                                        2014          2015          2016           2017           2018
     pave the downward trend for automotive
     suppliers in Turkey:                                                                                        1
                                                                                                                     Sales from production
                                                                                                                 2
                                                                                                                     Otokar, BMC, Honda, Man - They make less than 10% of Top 10 OEMs Sales
                                                                                                                     Source: Istanbul Chamber of Industry, Desktop Research, Strategy& Analysis
13

 Exhibit 8                                                                    Exhibit 9

Top 10 Automotive Supplier Sales1 – Turkey (Billion USD)                    Export Volumes of OEMs and Suppliers (Billion USD)

                              CAGR                                                                                                                        31.4     CAGR
                                                                   CAGR                                                  CAGR
                              -1.6%                                                                                                                               2012-18
                                                                  2014-18                                                8.4%
    4.7                                                                                                                                         28.4
                                             4.6
                  4.4          4.4                         4.5
    10%                                      6%                                                                                                           34%
                                                           5%      -18%                                                              24.2                           5%
    6%            7%           8%            6%                                                                 22.8                                                               CAGR
                                                           7%        3%
    6%            6%           6%                                                                      21.6               21.6                  34%                                -5.8%
                                             9%            7%        5%
    6%            9%           9%                                                               19.3
                                             8%            8%        5%                                                              37%
    8%            6%           8%                                                                                                                                           16.3
                  7%                         8%            9%        1%                                42%      42%                                                                        15.3
    9%                         7%                                                                                         40%
                  9%                         9%            9%        0%                         43%
    9%                         8%                                           Suppliers                                                                                       34%
                 10%                         9%                                                                                                                                            35%
                               9%                          10%       1%
    8%
                  8%                         9%            10%       5%                                                                                   66%     11%
                               8%
    15%                                                                                                                                         66%
                 14%           12%           12%           13%                                                                       63%
                                                                    -4%                                58%      58%       60%
                                                                            OEMs                57%                                                                         66%            65%
    25%          25%           24%           23%                    -5%
                                                           22%

   2014          2015         2016          2017           2018                                 2012   2013    2014       2015      2016        2017      2018           2018 H1 2019 H1
                                                                            Exports / Vehicle
                                                                            production          67%    72%      74%        71%       75%        85%        76%              76%            86%
                                                                            (Volume)
                                                                            Source: Turkish Exporters Assembly, Turkstat, Automotive Manufacturers Association, President of the Republic
                                                                            of Turkey Investment Office, Strategy& Analysis
14    |   Standing on the Verge of Momentous Change: Automotive Supplier Industry in Turkey

     Understanding the Problem of Technology Adoption

     The transition from traditional systems                      The problem involves multiple actors         Thirdly, government-backed funds              As these incentives and funds provided
     to high-tech systems is the primary                          and their interaction with each other.       and incentives have not been utilized         to companies have not created the
     challenge for the Turkish automotive                         Firstly, OEMs in Turkey are either direct    by companies in a way that enhances           expected impact from innovation
     suppliers, mainly producing mechanical                       investments of global OEMs or joint          innovation level in the industries. Mainly,   perspective, governmental funding
     systems. Our discussion with industry                        ventures. This leads the decisions on        the government is providing funds             mechanisms has recently been shifting
     players reveals that suppliers in Turkey                     technology and innovation to be led by       and incentives in two forms: 1) tax           to be provided for mid-high and
     are notoriously timid in engaging                            global organizations rather than the local   incentives and supports, which enable         high technology level products and
     R&D activities. In particular, they                          entity. Furthermore, local production is     companies to pay lower tax, social            technological development itself. In order
     are concerned to face potential                              mainly based on combustion engines and       security premiums and 2) cash grants,         to create an innovative environment,
     technical challenges and to spend                            not EV/Hybrid technology.                    which are direct and non-refunding cash       it is also critical to increase the level
     time and resources to overcome them.                                                                      injections for approved project(s) of the     of education, adopt supportive
     Additionally, as the process of adopting                     Secondly, it is the input / factor market    companies. Generally, the most common         organizational / management structure,
     new technologies takes time to adjust                        that speeds up or hinders the technology     form of government-backed funds and           and facilitate access to relevant funding
     and monetary returns are only realized in                    adoption of Turkish automobile suppliers.    incentives is tax incentives, and this has    – particularly the access of small-scale
     subsequent years, the shift to innovation                    On the labor side, auto suppliers are        not provided the desired level of impact      companies and start-ups.
     tends to be put on hold, causing a low                       now competing for talent with digital        for fostering innovation. In terms of cash
     technological progress observed among                        companies and the market is running          grants, support is provided either for
     the Turkish supplier companies.                              short of skilled-labor. Furthermore, the     the improvement of a (current) product
                                                                  current level of collaboration between       or production process improvement
                                                                  suppliers, universities and start-ups is     purposes.
                                                                  not sufficient to create an efficient and
                                                                  sustainable innovation environment.
15

                                            Exhibit 10

              Turkish Auto Suppliers’ Product Portfolio Focus
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Bolded part types are Turkish Auto Suppliers’ Focus Portfolio
Technological progress (in points along CASE1 framework)

                                                               Competitive future market                                                                                                                                                                                             Stars
                                                                                                                                                                                         Driver Information & Assistance
                                                           4                                                          Cockpit                Infotainment                                                      Chassis Electronics                     Battery and Energy Storage
                                                                                                                                          Body Electronics
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Electrical Distribution Systems
                                                                                                                  Way to Play: Technology leader                                  Body Structures
                                                           3                                                      Price premium through R&D                                                                   E-Motors & Generators incl. ISG
                                                                                                                                                                                                Power Converters and Controls for Hybrid
                                                                                                                                                                                  Cabin                      Safety Systems
                                                                                                                           Suspension Links & Knuckle Assy’s
                                                                                     Lighting / Exterior Trim                                  Transmission
                                                           2
                                                               Poor dogs                                                                                  Door Systems            Brakes                              Climate Systems            Cash today question mark tomorrow
                                                                                 Way to Play: Last Man Standing
                                                                                 Price- and quality leader in not            Wheels, Tyres,
                                                           1                     technology-intense market segments      Jacks & Equipment                       Steering          Springs, Dampers,                    Frames & Powertrain Mounting
                                                                                                                                                                                   Anti-Roll & Levelling Air Intake   Powertrain Controls  Switches & Climate Controls
                                                                                                                              Fuel Systems                Driveline
                                                                                    Engine                                                                                                               Systems Glasshouse & Lids
                                                                                                                            Seating                       Exhaust                         Cooling                                              Power Supply
                                                           0
                                                                        19     18         17         16         15          14          13           12          11          10           9           8           7           6           5        4         3        2          1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Intensity of Competition
                                                                                                                                 • How can Turkish auto suppliers change their focus from «poor dog» and «cash today» parts to «star» parts?
                                                                                                                                 • Should Turkish auto suppliers continue to focus on part groups that generate high cash to stay competitive?                     (in number of competitors
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           per product group)
                                                           Body Interior     Body Exterior        Chassis
                                                           Electrical        Powertrain           Hybrid and BEV tech.
           1
                                              Along the dimensions: Connected, Autonomous, Shared, Electric (CASE)
                                              Source: Strategy& Analysis
16    |   Standing on the Verge of Momentous Change: Automotive Supplier Industry in Turkey

     Exploring the Right Direction: Firm and Country Level Strategy Requirement

     As competitive pressures mount and new                          Exhibit 11
     players show up with new competencies,
     auto suppliers are left with hard choices                    Focusing on Selected Capabilities
     – about what products and services to
     keep or cut, what customers to serve                        “Industry workforce will be                                                                                           Need for omni-channel excellence: e.g. more
     and what capabilities to invest in. Our                                                                                                                                            than 70% of train tickets are already bought
                                                                 cut by at least 50% by 2030 and                                       Ambi-dextrous
     discussion with industry players indicates                  employees who remain will need very                                    organization                Immersive
                                                                                                                                                                                                           online (via app, computer)          4

     that the future way-to-play will be either                  different skills”1                                                                                  channels
     technology leadership or cost leadership.
     Yet, auto suppliers are not focusing                        Need for collaboration to stem high                                                                                                       Suppliers show strong growth
     on their differentiating capabilities and                   costs: tech companies have on                                                                                                             of +450% in M&A activity for
     determining strategic options.                                                                                       Performing
                                                                 average a 10% higher
                                                                                                                         partnerships                                                             software related competencies                5

     The Turkey’s Automobile Joint Venture                       R&D spend than auto                                                                                       Smart
     Group unveiled its first domestically-                      suppliers2                                                                                              technology
     produced electric vehicle “TOGG” in
     December 2019, stating that it aimed to                     One German OEM aims to have                                                                                                     Need for optimized global
     produce up to 175.000 electric vehicles                     half of its revenue coming from
     per year in a project experted to cost
                                                                                                                                         Mixed                    Hyperlocal
                                                                                                                                                                                               sourcing as labor costs make up
     USD 3.7 billion over 13 years. This project                 digital offerings by 2020                    3                         portfolio                  footprint
                                                                                                                                                                                               ~30% of total interior parts costs when
     shows Turkey’s direction for electric                                                                                                                                                         manufactured in Western Europe6
     vehicle production and therefore, in order
     to keep up with this strategic direction,                   1
                                                                     PwC Strategy& report “Transforming vehicle production: How shared mobility and automation will revolutionize the auto industry by 2030”
     suppliers should adapt innovation-based                     2
                                                                     Strategy& analysis based on annual reports of several technology companies and suppliers; average R&D spent as percentage of revenue in 2018: 16% tech. vs. 6% supplier
     strategies going forward.                                   3
                                                                     Strategy& analysis based on OEM press releases
                                                                 4
                                                                     Tagesspiegel press release on Deutsche Bahn tickets
                                                                 5
                                                                     Strategy& analysis
                                                                 6
                                                                     PwC Strategy& report “Capabilities-driven restructuring – A manufacturing footprint strategy for a commodity automotive supplier industry”
17

Turkey as a country is not alone with           Exhibit 12
a requirement for a clear vision and
strategy. Even those countries that are       Turkey’s Research & Development Landscape
leaders in automotive industry have the
                                              Turkey R&D Personnel and R&D Spending Development - Automotive
same problem: the future is not clear.
                                              (Headcount, Million USD)
Nevertheless, they take initiatives to
assume leadership in some areas. Turkey
is already positioned as an important
                                                                                                                 9,321
hub for global players that invest in                                             7,696           7,594
                                                   6,874          7,101
engineering and R&D; such as AVL, FEV,
Idiada and Ricardo. Additionally, there are
multiple R&D incentives in actions and
companies are increasing the number
of R&D personnel. Yet, the problem
                                                                                                                                             143 automotive R&D
lies in that there is no unifying force,                                                                                                     centers (in 2018)
partially backed by the government,
to induce roles and responsibilities
on the value chain. Without such                                                                                                                      27 automotive design
structures or forces, the production                                                                                                                  centers (in 2018)
market ends up in “everyone-fighting-                                                                                                       27
with-everyone” industry model and                  2013           2014            2015           2016            2017
companies are operating with a low level
of specialization.                                           R&D Spending            Number of R&D Personnel

                                              Source: Turkstat, President of the Republic of Turkey Investment Office, Strategy& Analysis
18    |   Standing on the Verge of Momentous Change: Automotive Supplier Industry in Turkey

     Conclusion: Opportunities on the Horizon and Key Lessons

     Opportunities
     OEMs: Existing close relations with local                    Location advantage: Turkey is well-          Building on existing capabilities: In      Strong Labor market: To attract global
     and global OEMs and understanding                            known with its strategic location. There     the last decade, Turkish auto suppliers    auto suppliers looking for cost reduction,
     their future needs plays a crucial role                      are two important takeaways for Turkish      gained an important experience on          the Turkish labor market has a lot to offer.
     for Turkish automotive suppliers. Our                        auto suppliers. Firstly, companies           how to develop products and vehicles.      On average, a Turkish engineer with the
     discussion with industry players reveals                     from South Korea, Japan and China            Furthermore, the industry already          similar skill set costs up to %66 less
     that the subsystems of motor, electronics                    which are targeting EU market can be         achieved standardized quality levels.      compared to its peers in EU. Additionally,
     and software are becoming new focus                          addressed to create joint ventures. They     By choosing the right partner for joint    Turkish workers are not reluctant to work
     areas. Particularly, OEMs are demanding                      are looking for regions of production        ventures, Turkish auto suppliers can aim   overtime and have better absenteeism
     autopilot, battery cooling systems,                          having close distance to assembly            for extending their product portfolio to   rate compared to Europe that makes
     electronic and body control unit, camera                     plants in EU region. Thus, Turkey offers a   technology-intensive products.             hourly labor cost very competitive.
     sensors and electric motors to be                            great place to produce and Turkish auto
     produced locally.                                            suppliers have a remarkable chance to
                                                                  increase their know-how through having
                                                                  partnership with companies from East
                                                                  Asia. Secondly, Turkish auto industry has
                                                                  a huge potential to serve EMEA region
                                                                  and to penetrate the market with urgent
                                                                  delivery features, especially given also
                                                                  the customs union with the EU.
19

Key Lessons
Strategy on Firm Level: Auto suppliers      Strategy on Country Level: Government       Roadmap Design: Firms should engage              Partnerships: Firms should be open to
should decide on their strategy over cost   and companies should work together          in roadmap planning, setting target levels       new partnerships with digital / technology
leadership or technology leadership.        to set up the value chain positioning       and implement commitment to these                companies, learn from them and update
Changing product portfolio and opening      and organize division of tasks in order     levels. The measure of success should be         their cultural mindset accordingly.
up new product lines require reallocation   to prevent «everyone-fighting-with-         clear. (E.g. investing significant part of the
of resources and solid evaluation of        everyone» industry model. Tax incentives    sales revenue in R&D, while maintaining
future financing plan together with         or subsidy policies should be set out       the level of the international competitors
timeline assessment for required            to increase firm-level granularity on the   in terms of EBIT margins).
competencies.                               value chain.
20    |   Standing on the Verge of Momentous Change: Automotive Supplier Industry in Turkey

     Strategy&                                                    PwC                                         TAYSAD
     Strategy& is a global strategy consulting                    At PwC, our purpose is to build trust in    Established in 1978, TAYSAD is the sole
     business uniquely positioned to help                         society and solve important problems.       and most competent representative of
     deliver your best future: one that is built                  We’re a network of firms in 158 countries   the Turkish automotive supplier industry.
     on differentiation from the inside out and                   with more than 236.000 people who           With more than 450 members, the
     tailored exactly to you. As a part of the                    are committed to delivering quality in      association represents 65% of the output
     PwC network, every day we’re building                        assurance, advisory and tax services.       of the automotive supplier industry and
     the winning systems that are at the heart                    Find out more and tell us what matters to   70% of the industry’s exports. 80% of
     of growth. We combine our powerful                           you by visiting us at www.pwc.com.tr        members operate in the Marmara region;
     foresight with this tangible know-how,                                                                   12% in the Aegean region and 8% in
                                                                  PwC has been providing services to
     technology, and scale to help you create a                                                               other regions of Turkey. 450 TAYSAD
                                                                  the Turkish business world since 1981,
     better, more transformative strategy from                                                                members employ more than 200,000
                                                                  with five offices located in four cities;
     day one.                                                                                                 people.
                                                                  Istanbul, Ankara, Bursa and Izmir. With
     As the only at-scale strategy business                       a professional staff of 1.700, we provide   25% of members have foreign partners
     that’s part of a global professional                         services to create the value that our       who hold varying levels of shares.
     services network, we embed our strategy                      clients look for.                           TAYSAD is a member of CLEPA, the
     capabilities with frontline teams across                                                                 European Association of Automotive
     PwC to show you where you need to go,                                                                    Suppliers (www.clepa.be). In addition,
     the choices you’ll need to make to get                                                                   the association has a reference
     there, and how to get it right.                                                                          position within Turkey for domestic and
                                                                                                              international OEM’s, Tier 1 Suppliers
     The result is an authentic strategy process
                                                                                                              and institutions being the representative
     powerful enough to capture possibility,
                                                                                                              of Turkish Automotive Parts and
     while pragmatic enough to ensure
                                                                                                              Components Suppliers.
     effective delivery. It’s the strategy that
     gets an organization through the changes                                                                 TAYSAD holds ESCA Silver Label and
     of today and drives results that redefine                                                                ISO 9001 Certificates.
     tomorrow. It’s the strategy that turns
     vision into reality. It’s strategy, made real.
21

Automotive practice service offerings

• Distribution and retail strategy (offline and online)                                                                        • Mobility-as-a-service strategy and ways-to-play
• Dealer business model and direct sales                                                                                       • Capability requirement definition, development &
                                                                              Marketing,                                         sourcing (incl. supplier selection)
• Market entry strategies for new players
                                                                                 Sales          Future of                      • Go-to-market, pilot set-up, launch support and scaling
• Ownership vs. usership models                                               & Aftersales      Mobility
                                                                                                                               • Development and realization of value creating
• Digitization strategy and target picture                     Digital                                                           inorganic strategies
• Digitization of core processes (e.g. predictive           Enterprise &                                                       • Enterprise portfolio review
  maintenance, digital supply chain, RPA1)                Transfor-mation                                   Enterprise Value
                                                                                                                               • Improvement of strategic positioning and business
• Digital transformation acceleration (e.g. org set-up,                                                       Architecture
                                                                                                                                 performance
  governance, KPI’s, tracking)                                                                                   (EVA)
                                                                                                                               • Optimization of balance sheet and tax structure

                                                                                                                               • Product and service strategy, opportunity sizing &
• Organization, product & process maturity assessment                                                                            proposition design
• Enablement through preventive, reactive and                Extended
                                                                                                              Integrated       • (Digital) unit set-up, capability building and talent
  sustained solutions                                        Enterprise
                                                                                                                Product        • Roadmap, risk assessment and (digital) portfolio
                                                          Enablement (EEE)
• From supplier nomination to End of Production                                                                & Service         management/ divestiture
                                                                                                               Strategy
• Risk analysis along product lifecycle                                                        Product                         • Transparency over cost and customer value
• Prioritization of risk mitigating measures                                (Technical)         Value                          • Technical and commercial opportunities for cost
                                                                            Compliance       Management                          reduction and value creation
• Implementation of best practice technical compliance
  management system to ensure conformity with                                                   (PVM)                          • Creation of holistic PVM organizations (i.e. strategy,
  technical compliance standards                                                                                                 operating model, methods & tools, resources)
22    |   Standing on the Verge of Momentous Change: Automotive Supplier Industry in Turkey

     Your Contacts

     Tolga Baloğlu                                      Kağan Karamanoğlu                            Henning Rennert
     Partner, PwC Turkey                                Partner, PwC Strategy& Turkey                Partner, PwC Strategy& Germany
     +90 212 326 53 34                                  +90 212 326 63 09                            +49 160 95553583
     tolga.baloglu@pwc.com                              kagan.karamanoglu@strategyand.tr.pwc.com     henning.rennert@strategyand.de.pwc.com

     Jonas Seyfferth                                   Ethemcan Bakırlıoğlu                          Kaan Kurt
     Director, PwC Strategy& Germany                   Director, PwC Strategy& Turkey                Associate, PwC Strategy& Turkey
     +49 89 54525596                                   +90 212 326 60 60                             kaan.kurt@strategyand.tr.pwc.com
     jonas.seyfferth@strategyand.de.pwc.com            ethemcan.bakirlioglu@strategyand.tr.pwc.com
www.strategyand.pwc.com/tr

© 2020 PwC Turkey. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the Turkey member
firm, and may sometimes refer to the PwC network. Each member firm is a
separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details.

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