System Status Briefing - BRIAN MOLEFE Group Chief Executive - Eskom
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System Status Briefing
(January – March 2016)
BRIAN MOLEFE
Group Chief Executive
May 2016
CONFIDENTIAL
Contents
1 Executive summary of performance
2 Maintenance overview
3 Outlook
4 New build update
5 Majuba power station silo & Duvha unit 3 updates
6 Conclusion
Performance Highlights since October 2015 (1/2)
Description
• No load shedding has been implemented since August 2015
Maintenance
without load • Average planned maintenance (PCLF) 12.52% since August 2015
shedding
• Eskom’s prognosis for FY2016/17 is that there will be no load shedding
• Availability has increased from ~70% in October 2015 to ~76% in April 2016
• This is largely due to a decrease in breakdowns (Unplanned Capacity Loss
Increased factor and other loss factors) from ~18% in October 2015 to ~12% in April 2016
availability
• Additional capacity added to the national grid excluding Medupi through
improvements in EAF from ~70% to ~76% in April is 2 599 MW
• Including Medupi the total capacity added is 3 279 MW
Performance Highlights since October 2015 (2/2)
Description
• Eskom has managed to synchronise the first two Ingula units (3 & 4) to the
New capacity national grid, ahead of schedule on 3 March and 25 March 2016 respectively
• Medupi unit 6 commercially operational since August 2015
• OCGT energy sent out has decreased from 381GWh in October 2015 to
6GWh April 2016
Low diesel
usage and
spend • This resulting in a decrease in diesel costs from R854m to less than R25m
from October 2015 to April 2016Contents
1 Executive summary of performance
2 Maintenance overview
3 Outlook
4 New build update
5 Majuba power station silo & Duvha unit 3 updates
6 ConclusionEskom has excess capacity of up to 11 000 MW after
evening peak, as a result of improved Eskom performance
Illustration of the summer and winter profiles
MW Insights
Average System Summer Profile Average System Winter Profile
• After evening peak,
35000 Eskom is required to
34000 drop load of
33000 approximately 11 000
32000 MW, however this
31000 capacity will be required
30000 for the next evening
29000 peak
28000 • Eskom has had to
27000 manage the excess
11 000 MW capacity by either
26000
25000 • operating a unit for two
24000 8 hour shifts instead of
23000 three 8 hour shifts
22000 • switch units off for
21000 longer periods
20000 19:00
20:00
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
11:00
6Maintenance overview
• The Tetris maintenance plan has been optimised to ensure no load
shedding
• The optimisation of the Tetris plan has been completed within the
following criteria:
• summer maintenance budget 11 500 MW
• winter maintenance budget 8 500 MW
• maximum OCGT load factor of 6%
• Our month to date performance on the 11 May 2016
• 78.1 % - Energy availability
• 9.2% - Break downs1
• 12.7 % - planned outages
• In terms of our existing Generation Sustainability Strategy, our aim is
to achieve 80% plant availability, 10% planned maintenance and 10%
unplanned maintenance over the medium term
1 Includes breakdowns and other non plant lossesPlant performance has been improving steadily
since October 2015
Performance over the past seven months
Percentage Breakdowns1 Planned maintenance Available energy
Insights
• Available energy has steadily
12,9% 11,8% 9,2% increased since October 2015
18,1% 17,4% 14,7% 17,0% 15,6%
12,7% • In December the availability
12,9% 12,0%
9,8% dropped to 69%, because
12,0% 12,3% 16,0% 11,2%
Eskom took advantage of the
lower demand to perform more
planned maintenance
• The increase in availability is
also attributed to the decrease
in breakdowns
74,7% 74,2% 76,2% 78,1%
70,0% 70,3% 69,3% 71,8% • Additional capacity added to
the national grid excluding
Medupi through improvements
in EAF from ~70% to ~76% in
April is 2 599 MW
• Including Medupi the total
Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-162 capacity added is 3 279 MW
1 - Includes breakdowns and other non plant losses
2 – month to date performance on 11 May 2016 8OCGT usage and costs have both decreased as
a result of improved Generation availability
OCGT performance over the past seven months
Energy Send Out (GWh)
400 381
350 Insights
300 288 • The load factor
has decreased
250 from ~21.2% to
~0.4%
200 180
• The energy sent
150 out from OCGT’s
100 has decreased
100 from 381 GWh to
6 GWh
50 21
6 6 • The above
0
mention has
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr resulted in costs
decreasing from
Load 21.2 16.6 10.6 5.6 1.3 0.4 0.4 R854 m to R25 m
Factor (%)
Cost (R’m) 854 555 278 187 62 25 25
9Today’s performance
Screen shot of Eskom’s Generation Dashboard
Insights
• The maintenance budget was 8 788 MW as of 12 May 2016 at 07h53 (sum of planned
maintenance, forced outages and partial load losses)
• This translates into an EAF of 80%1
1 The percentage difference between the available capacity and operational MW.
The surplus at 12:00 will be 4 704 MW
Source: Performance data as per GPSSContents
1 Executive summary of performance
2 Maintenance overview
3 Outlook
4 New build update
5 Majuba power station silo & Duvha unit 3 updates
6 ConclusionOutlook
• Our prognosis for winter is that there will be no load shedding
• We will continue with a rigorous program of planned maintenance
without implementing load shedding while also minimising usage of
open cycle gas turbines
• For winter, Eskom is targeting a maintenance budget of 8 500 MW, in
summer we budget 11 500 MW
• Renewable energy will continue to contribute up to Photovoltaic 800
MW and wind 500 MW of the total installed capacity of 2 310 MW of
electricity generated during the day from solar and wind including
Eskom’s Sere wind farmThe Tetris plan indicates no loadshedding for the
remainder of the year
Available Capacity Operating Reserves Planned Maintenance Plant Breakdowns Peak Demand Installed Capacity
45000
Installed Capacity is the total
Winter Plant Breakdowns generating
Summer Plant Breakdowns capacity from Eskom’s
7000 MW combined fleet
6000 MW Plant Breakdowns
40000
Plant Breakdowns: from the available capacity we
Planned Maintenance subtract the anticipated breakdowns
35000 Operating Reserve
30000
Planned Maintenance: from this we also need to
subtract the planned maintenance
Peak Demand: the forecasted demand does not exceed the Operating Reserve: 2000 MW buffer to cater for sudden
available capacity and we still have the 2000 MW of operating Increase in load or if generating units are lost
25000 reserve as a buffer. Therefore the prognosis is no loadshedding Available Capacity
for the remainder of the year Available Capacity: the capacity available to meet the demand
we now have to superimpose the demand forecast for the year
to compare it with the this available capacity.
20000
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2016 2017
Tetris V4.151 Planned Maintenance – May to August 2016
Available Capacity = Installed Capacity - Peak Demand - UCLF
Eskom is targeting a maintenance budget of 8.5 GW for Winter months
Available Capacity to do planned maintenance and
meet operating reserve
Komati 6
Tutuka 4
Kendal 1
Tutuka 1 Operating Reserve Komati 5
Ankerlig 3
Grootvlei 6 Tutuka 6 Komati 7
Matla 1
Grootvlei 5 Matimba 4 Matla 2
Camden 3 Lethabo 1
Tutuka 2 Ankerlig 4
Gourikwa 1
Hendrina 1
Grootvlei 1
Grootvlei 2
Kendal 4
Drakensberg 4 Arnot 1
HCB 1
Palmiet 1 Kendal 5
Hendrina 6
Komati 9
Majuba 6 Camden 2 Lethabo 6
Ankerlig 2
Tutuka 3
Komati 3
Kriel 3
Hendrina 7
The no loadshedding plan allows for available capacity as we seldom dip into the operating reserves
14
Source: Tetris Plan V4.15Planned Maintenance – September to
2 December 2016
Available Capacity = Installed Capacity - Peak Demand - UCLF
Eskom
10000 is targeting a maintenance budget of 11.5 GW for summer months
9000
Lethabo 4
8000
Hendrina 4
7000 Majuba 5
Duvha 6 Kriel 1
Duvha 2
6000 Kendal 1
Operating Reserve HCB 1
Lethabo 3
5000 Vanderkloof 1 Majuba 2
Majuba 4
Hendrina 2 Tutuka 5 Komati 6
Komati 4 Matla 1 Gourikwa 3
4000 Matla 3 Tutuka 4
Matimba 6
Matimba 4 Drakensberg 1
3000 Majuba 3 Medupi 6
Komati 5
Gourikwa 2
Grootvlei 1
Gariep 4 Hendrina 7 Hendrina
Ankerlig 1
3
Ankerlig 4
Gourikwa 1 Ankerlig 7
2000 Koeberg 1 Lethabo 5
Kendal 5
Ankerlig 3 Kriel 4
Komati 7 Matla 2
1000 Drakensberg 2
Camden 1
Hendrina 10
Grootvlei 2
Hendrina 1
0 Camden 2
01-Oct
04-Oct
07-Oct
10-Oct
13-Oct
16-Oct
19-Oct
22-Oct
25-Oct
28-Oct
31-Oct
01-Sep
04-Sep
07-Sep
10-Sep
13-Sep
16-Sep
19-Sep
22-Sep
25-Sep
28-Sep
03-Dec
06-Dec
09-Dec
12-Dec
15-Dec
18-Dec
21-Dec
24-Dec
27-Dec
30-Dec
03-Nov
06-Nov
09-Nov
12-Nov
15-Nov
18-Nov
21-Nov
24-Nov
27-Nov
30-Nov
The no loadshedding plan allows for available capacity
2016 as we seldom dip into the operating reserves 1Planned Maintenance – January 2017 to
3 March 2017
Available Capacity = Installed Capacity - Peak Demand - UCLF
Eskom is targeting a maintenance budget of 11.5 GW for summer months
1
The no loadshedding plan allows for available capacity as we seldom dip into the operating reserves 6
Source: Tetris Plan V4.15Contents
1 Executive summary of performance
2 Maintenance overview
3 Outlook
4 New build update
5 Majuba power station silo & Duvha unit 3 updates
6 ConclusionNew Build Update (1/2)
• Eskom has managed to synchronise the first Ingula units (3 & 4) to the
national grid, ahead of schedule on 3 March and 25 March 2016 respectively
• Medupi Unit 6 was commissioned on 23 August 2015, adding 794 MW to
South Africa’s electricity grid
• Medupi Unit 5 draught group run and dry fires were completed in March
2016, followed by the completion of the chemical cleaning of the unit in April
2016, which are important milestones towards first oil- and coal fires, leading
to boiler blow through and ultimately commercial operation of the unit
• Medupi Unit 5 is expected to be commercially operational in March 2018
(P80)New Build Update (2/2)
• Kusile power station continues to achieve set milestones on the path for Unit
1 commercial operation
• Kusile Unit 1 is expected to be commercially operational in July 2018 (P80)
• The construction of Transmission lines and the commissioning of
transformers have exceeded the targets for the 2015/16 financial year.
These are 346km of transmission lines constructed and 2 435 MVAs of
substation capacity commissioned
• Since inception in 2005, the capacity expansion programme so far added
7 031 MW of generation capacity, 6 162 km of transmission lines and
32 090 MVA of substation capacity to the national gridWe remain focused on bringing new capacity
online
P80 dates
CO = commercial operation
CO in Mar 2015 CO in Aug 2015 CO by Mar 2017 CO by Jul 2017 CO by Jul 2018
100 794 333 333 800
Mar 2015 Aug 2015 Mar 2017 Jul 2017 Jul 2018 5 620MW
Sere Wind Farm Medupi Unit 6 Ingula Unit 4 Ingula Unit 1 Kusile Unit 1
Post MYPD 3
Mar 2015 Jan 2017 May 2017 Mar 2018 2019/20
Majuba recovery Ingula Unit 3 Ingula Unit 2 Medupi Unit 5 Duvha Unit 3
1200 333 333 794 600
600MW from Unit 3 gap CO by Jan 2017 CO by May 2017 CO by Mar 2018 Fully recovered
solution in Feb 2015 Project falls outside
600MW from Unit 4 in MYPD3 window
Mar 2015New capacity will fuel the South African economy
Additional MW to be added to the South African grid
Installed capacity (MW) Medupi + Sere Ingula
Insights
Kusile Current capacity
55,000 53,389 • Eskom is
52,589
51,789 progressively
50,195 4,864 adding capacity
50,000 4,864
47,807 4,864
4,070 over the next
45,419 2,482 3,200 4,000 seven years
45,000 44,087 1,600 2,400
894 800
894 1,332 1,332 1,332 1,332 1,332 1,332
• Ingula will be fully
40,000
40,000
commissioned in
2017
35,000
• Medupi will be
43,193 43,193 43,193 43,193 43,193 43,193 43,193 fully
commissioned by
2020
10,000
• Kusile will be fully
5,000 commissioned by
2022
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Contents
1 Executive summary of performance
2 Maintenance overview
3 Outlook
4 New build update
5 Majuba power station silo & Duvha unit 3 updates
6 ConclusionMajuba Power Station silo & Duvha Unit 3 update
Majuba Permanent solution Duvha unit 3 update
• Construction completion of the • The letter of contractor
permanent solution for the recovery of appointment has been issued
the coal silo at Majuba is on track for
completion by end December 2017 • Finalisation of the contract detail is
(P80) in progress
• Plans to accelerate completion are in
• Contractors to be on site by mid-
place and progressing well
year for construction to commenceContents
1 Executive summary of performance
2 Maintenance overview
3 Outlook
4 New build update
5 Majuba power station silo & Duvha unit 3 updates
6 ConclusionReasons for no load shedding
Description
• Alignment in all structures to new leadership’s vision
Leadership • Adherence to maintenance plan and discipline execution
involvement • Tetris - outage planning tool to optimise when outages should
be scheduled, with minimal diesel usage
Additional • Medupi Unit 6 in August 2015 – 700 MW
capacity • Dedisa an IPP in October 2015 – 334 MW
already added • Ingula Unit 4 is available for dispatch – 333 MW
• Avon IPP Peaking will be fully commissioned by October 2016
New capacity • Ingula will be fully commissioned in 2017
to be added • Medupi will be fully commissioned by 2020
• Kusile will be fully commissioned by 2022
Improved • Breakdowns including other capacity loss factors have
plant decreased from ~18% down to 12% in seven months
performance • A deliberate focus on ensuring our units run at optimum levels
• Thus increasing the energy availability from 71% to 76%Conclusion
• Eskom has stabilised and we don’t anticipate load shedding
• To date we have not implemented load shedding in 9 months (except for
2 hours and 20 minutes)
• We will continue with planned maintenance and we remain focused on
delivering on our capital expansion programme
• We appreciate the support of all our customers and urge them to
continue to use electricity sparingly at all times
• Once completed in the next five years, our capacity expansion
programme will increase our generation capacity by 17 384MW,
transmission lines by 9 756km and substation capacity by 42 470MVA
• This will enable us to provide security of electricity supply to South
African homes and businesses, powering economic expansion and
extending electricity to millions of householdsThank you
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