Technical Analysis: Inflection Points - The Carey Group
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Technical Analysis
January 9, 2021
Technical Analysis: Inflection Points
And Boom Goes the New High List
There are two market signals we think important to flag this week due to
the bullish implications for the S&P 500: 1) a four-year high in the
number of net new 52-week highs on the NYSE (337); and 2) the breakout
in the 10-year US Treasury yield. Emerging Markets are also closing in on
a breakout above its 2007 peak.
The OPCO Trifecta is a stock that 1) is fundamentally rated Outperform
by research, 2) screens positively in our trend work, and 3) is supported
by top-down portfolio tailwinds.
Additions: PZZA, LULU, FTDR, ESTC, OLED, FOCS, MRNA, CSII
Removals: DPZ, BABA, RDFN, EQIX
Highlighted Portfolio Ideas
High Beta (SPHB): FOCS, OLED, XPO
Consumer Cyclicals (XLY): FTDR, LULU, PZZA
Biotechnology (XBI): IOVA, MRNA, NVTA
HC Equipment (IHI) & Services (IHF): ADUS, CHE, CSII
Software (IGV): ESTC, MDB, NET
Inflection Points Topics:
Market Indicators
Large-cap 50/50
SMID-cap 50/50
Sector MO Ranks
The OPCO Trifecta
Ari H. Wald, CFA, CMT
Technical Analysis For analyst certification and important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix.
(212) 667-5279
ari.wald@opco.com Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. 85 Broad Street New York, NY 10004 Tel: 800-221-5588 Fax: 212-667-8229Technical Analysis
And Boom Goes the New High List
There are two market signals we think important to flag this week: 1) a four-year high in the number of net new 52-week highs on the
NYSE; and 2) the breakout in the 10-year US Treasury yield. Starting with breadth, last week’s 337 net new highs marked the highest
count since Dec. 2016—such evidence of broad-based internal breadth reaffirms our bull market thesis. Similar to subsequent action in
2017, we believe this is the point in the cycle for the market to transition from choppy base building to a steadier uptrend. For the S&P
500, we see support at 3,660 (Jan. low and approaching 50-day average) and little identifiable resistance.
NYSE Net New 52W Highs
[rs] Most net new highs since Dec. 2016
S&P 500
[ls]
Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg
2
January 9, 2021Technical Analysis
BREAKOUT ALERT: 10-year US Treasury Yield
Regarding interest rates, the 10-year US Treasury yield’s breakout above its June peak (0.96%) is a critical signal given the bullish
implication for the S&P 500 and cyclicals broadly. This meaningful higher high completes the 10-year’s nine-month base dating back to its
Q1’20 collapse, by our analysis. We see an inflection in its 200-day average as added confirmation too. As discussed in our Big Numbers
outlook, the next major resistance level is around 1.35% loosely marking its 2012, 2016, and 2019 lows as well as a key retracement of its
2018 to 2020 decline. Overall, we anticipate additional upside in the 10-year US Treasury yield.
10-year US Treasury Yield
w/ 200-day m.a.
1.32%
We see upside to ~1.35%
Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg.
3
January 9, 2021Technical Analysis
Rising Rates Still a Tailwind for Beta
Interest rates have been a key driver of the swings between high-beta cyclicals (HB) and low-volatility defensives (LV) meaning we expect
an additional rise in rates to prove supportive toward our recommendation for the former. Over the last decade, the spread between the
10Y UST yield and its 200-day average has peaked around 75bps, and this extreme has led the peak in the HB vs. LV ratio by about a year.
Currently, the spread stands at 35bps meaning 1) the 10-year has room to rise and 2) the peak in the HB vs. LV ratio should be at least a
year away, based on this work. Overall, although beta is near-term extended, we recommend sticking with its accelerating trend. Less-
extended OPCO Trifectas with a beta of at least 1.2 include FOCS, OLED, and XPO.
S&P: High-Beta vs. Low Volatility
Rates reach Risk Rates reach Risk
an extreme peaks an extreme peaks
Rates not yet
overbought—Stick
with beta’s breakout Rates not
yet extreme
10-year US Treasury Yield: Deviation from 200-day average (bps)
Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg. Note: These results cannot and should not be viewed as an indicator of future performance.
4
January 9, 2021Technical Analysis
Buy OPCO Beta
OPCO Trifectas with a beta of at least 1.2 include FOCS, OLED, and XPO.
Universal Display Corp. Focus Financial Partners, Inc.
(OLED) (FOCS)
The OPCO Trifecta is a stock that is:
1) Fundamentally rated Outperform by research,
2) Screens positively in our trend work, and is
3) Supported by top-down portfolio tailwinds.
XPO Logistics, Inc. Portfolio theme: Beta of at least 1.2
(XPO)
All charts w/ 200-day m.a.
Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg.
5
January 9, 2021Technical Analysis
Consumer Cyclicals Regaining Leadership
The Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) has rallied to a new cycle high and is showing signs of regaining its leadership vs. the S&P 500, by
our analysis. We see this as the “right” leadership and another positive for the market. OPCO Trifectas from the Consumer Discretionary
sector include FTDR, LULU, and PZZA.
Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY)
w/ 200-day m.a.
Relative to S&P 500
w/ 200-day m.a.
Bullish inflection point vs. S&P 500
Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg.
6
January 9, 2021Technical Analysis
Buy OPCO Consumer Discretionary
OPCO Trifectas from the Consumer Discretionary sector include FTDR, LULU, and PZZA.
Lululemon Athletica, Inc. Papa John’s International, Inc.
(LULU) (PZZA)
The OPCO Trifecta is a stock that is:
1) Fundamentally rated Outperform by research,
2) Screens positively in our trend work, and is
3) Supported by top-down portfolio tailwinds.
frontdoor, Inc. Portfolio theme: Consumer Discretionary sector
(FTDR)
All charts w/ 200-day m.a.
Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg.
7
January 9, 2021Technical Analysis
Biotech Is Equally Strong
Leadership in the small-cap Biotechnology industry has been, and remains, a key reason for our bullish stance towards small-cap growth.
We like the S&P Biotech SPDR (XBI) for exposure to the industry because the ETF’s equal weighting tilts towards smaller stocks. Relative to
the S&P 500, XBI has consolidated since breaking through July resistance and should ultimately resume higher given its positively sloped
trend, in our view. OPCO Trifectas from the Biotechnology industry include IOVA, MRNA, and NVTA.
S&P Biotech SPDR (XBI)
w/ 200-day m.a.
Biotech strength is one reason for our preference toward small-cap growth
Relative to S&P 500
w/ 200-day m.a.
Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg.
8
January 9, 2021Technical Analysis
Buy OPCO Biotechnology
OPCO Trifectas from the Biotechnology industry include IOVA, MRNA, and NVTA.
Moderna, Inc. Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc.
(MRNA) (IOVA)
Invitae Corp.
(NVTA) The OPCO Trifecta is a stock that is:
1) Fundamentally rated Outperform by research,
2) Screens positively in our trend work, and is
3) Supported by top-down portfolio tailwinds.
Portfolio theme: SMID-cap Biotechnology industry
All charts w/ 200-day m.a.
Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg.
9
January 9, 2021Technical Analysis
SMID-cap HC Equipment & Services Also Strong
Within Health Care, we’re also bullish on the HC Equipment (IHI) & Services (IHF) industry group which is just starting to break higher vs.
the S&P 500, in our view. Here too, we’re especially upbeat on strength in the SMID-cap part of the benchmark. OPCO Trifectas from the
industry group include ADUS, CHE, and CSII.
S&P 400 HC Equipment & Services
w/ 200-day m.a.
Fresh relative breakout
Relative to S&P 500
w/ 200-day m.a.
Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg.
10
January 9, 2021Technical Analysis
Buy OPCO HC Equipment & Services
OPCO Trifectas from the HC Equipment & Services industry group include ADUS, CHE, and CSII.
Addus HomeCare Corp. Chemed Corp.
(ADUS) (CHE)
Cardiovascular Systems, Inc.
(CSII) The OPCO Trifecta is a stock that is:
1) Fundamentally rated Outperform by research,
2) Screens positively in our trend work, and is
3) Supported by top-down portfolio tailwinds.
Portfolio theme: SMID-cap HC Equipment &
Services industry group
All charts w/ 200-day m.a.
Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg.
11
January 9, 2021Technical Analysis
Defending Software & Services
We highlighted the breakout in Software & Services in December and the industry group has subsequently corrected. We’re defending this
recommendation because support levels are intact. Specifically, the iShares Software ETF (IGV) has corrected into its prior breakout point
at $337 and remains above the bullish slope of its smoothed trend vs. the S&P 500, by our analysis. OPCO Trifectas from the industry group
include ESTC, MDB, and NET.
iShares Software (IGV)
w/ 200-day m.a.
Relative to S&P 500
w/ 200-day m.a.
Nice SaaS pullback
Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg.
12
January 9, 2021Technical Analysis
Buy OPCO Software & Services
OPCO Trifectas from the Software & Services industry group include ESTC, MDB, and NET.
Elastic NV Cloudfare, Inc.
(ESTC) (NET)
MongoDB, Inc.
(MDB) The OPCO Trifecta is a stock that is:
1) Fundamentally rated Outperform by research,
2) Screens positively in our trend work, and is
3) Supported by top-down portfolio tailwinds.
Portfolio theme: SMID-cap Software & Services
industry group
All charts w/ 200-day m.a.
Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg.
13
January 9, 2021Technical Analysis
The OPCO Trifecta
The OPCO Trifecta is a stock that 1) is fundamentally rated Outperform by research, 2) screens positively in our trend
work, and 3) is supported by top-down portfolio tailwinds.
Our attempt is to maintain a dynamic list of our top ideas, deleting when necessary and adding/highlighting when
tactical. The size of the list will vary. Please inquire about being added to the daily distribution of our Color for
Fundamental Focus Calls report for additional OPCO covered ideas.
Additions
Mkt Cap Reason for
Ticker Name Analyst Sector ($mm) Addition
PZZA PAPA JOHN'S INTL INC Brian Bittner Consumer Discretionary 3,141 OPCO Top Idea
LULU LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC Brian Nagel Consumer Discretionary 48,680 OPCO Top Idea
FTDR FRONTDOOR INC Ian Zaffino Consumer Discretionary 4,399 Trend
ESTC ELASTIC NV Ittai Kidron Information Technology 12,771 Trend
OLED UNIVERSAL DISPLAY CORP Martin Yang Information Technology 11,084 Trend
FOCS FOCUS FINANCIAL PARTNERS-A Owen Lau Financials 3,234 Trend
MRNA MODERNA INC Hartaj Singh Health Care 46,579 Trend
CSII CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS INC Suraj Kalia Health Care 1,839 OPCO Top Idea
Removals
Triple Removal Mkt Cap Reason for
Ticker Name Play Date Date Analyst Sector ($mm) Removal
DPZ DOMINO'S PIZZA INC 9-May-20 8-Jan-21 Brian Bittner Consumer Discretionary 15,081 Replaced/PZZA
BABA ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING-SP ADR 5-Jun-20 8-Jan-21 Jason Helfstein Consumer Discretionary 604,953 Trend
RDFN REDFIN CORP 27-Nov-20 8-Jan-21 Jason Helfstein Real Estate 7,211 Fundamental
EQIX EQUINIX INC 9-May-20 8-Jan-21 Timothy Horan Real Estate 60,328 Trend
Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg.
14
January 9, 2021Technical Analysis
The OPCO Trifecta
Trifecta OPCO MO Mkt Cap
Ticker Name Date Rating Analyst score Industry Group ($mm)
SBUX STARBUCKS CORP 23-Oct-20 O Brian Bittner 2 Consumer Services 121,263
PZZA PAPA JOHN'S INTL INC 8-Jan-21 O Brian Bittner 2 Consumer Services 3,141
LULU LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC 8-Jan-21 O Brian Nagel 1 Consumer Durables & Apparel 48,680
HELE HELEN OF TROY LTD 14-Aug-20 O Rupesh Parikh 2 Consumer Durables & Apparel 5,533
DG DOLLAR GENERAL CORP 9-May-20 O Rupesh Parikh 1 Retailing 52,810
WMT WALMART INC 9-May-20 O Rupesh Parikh 1 Food & Staples Retailing 414,688
COST COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP 9-May-20 O Rupesh Parikh 1 Food & Staples Retailing 163,967
EL ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES-CL A 23-Oct-20 O Rupesh Parikh 2 Household & Personal Products 94,068
TEL TE CONNECTIVITY LTD 27-Nov-20 O Christopher Glynn 1 Technology Hardware & Equipmen 42,444
ALB ALBEMARLE CORP 14-Aug-20 O Colin Rusch 1 Materials 19,598
ROK ROCKWELL AUTOMATION INC 14-Aug-20 O Noah Kaye 2 Capital Goods 30,098
ITRI ITRON INC 27-Nov-20 O Noah Kaye 3 Technology Hardware & Equipmen 4,348
XPO XPO LOGISTICS INC 23-Oct-20 O Scott Schneeberger 2 Transportation 11,568
ACA ARCOSA INC 14-Aug-20 O Ian Zaffino Capital Goods 2,933
FTDR FRONTDOOR INC 8-Jan-21 O Ian Zaffino Consumer Services 4,399
AAPL APPLE INC 9-May-20 O Andrew Uerkwitz 1 Technology Hardware & Equipmen 2,170,201
TTWO TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWRE 10-Jul-20 O Andrew Uerkwitz 1 Media & Entertainment 23,748
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC 9-May-20 O Jason Helfstein 1 Retailing 1,604,151
ETSY ETSY INC 9-May-20 O Jason Helfstein 1 Retailing 21,494
NFLX NETFLIX INC 9-May-20 O Jason Helfstein 2 Media & Entertainment 227,175
ROKU ROKU INC 10-Jul-20 O Jason Helfstein 1 Media & Entertainment 47,069
FB FACEBOOK INC-CLASS A 5-Jun-20 O Jason Helfstein 1 Media & Entertainment 772,443
TCEHY TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD-UNS ADR 9-May-20 O Jason Helfstein 1 Media & Entertainment 696,355
SNAP SNAP INC - A 5-Jun-20 O Jason Helfstein 1 Media & Entertainment 76,511
CRM SALESFORCE.COM INC 10-Jul-20 O Brian Schwartz 2 Software & Services 200,276
WDAY WORKDAY INC-CLASS A 18-Sep-20 O Brian Schwartz 2 Software & Services 54,049
TTD TRADE DESK INC/THE -CLASS A 5-Jun-20 O Brian Schwartz 1 Software & Services 35,274
RNG RINGCENTRAL INC-CLASS A 9-May-20 O Brian Schwartz 1 Software & Services 34,735
MDLA MEDALLIA INC 27-Nov-20 O Brian Schwartz Software & Services 4,829
COUP COUPA SOFTWARE INC 9-May-20 O Koji Ikeda 1 Software & Services 23,485
OKTA OKTA INC 9-May-20 O Shaul Eyal 1 Software & Services 31,913
CRWD CROWDSTRIKE HOLDINGS INC - A 10-Jul-20 O Shaul Eyal Software & Services 48,147
NET CLOUDFLARE INC - CLASS A 14-Aug-20 O Shaul Eyal Software & Services 23,643
MDB MONGODB INC 9-May-20 O Ittai Kidron 1 Software & Services 20,625
TEAM ATLASSIAN CORP PLC-CLASS A 9-May-20 O Ittai Kidron 1 Software & Services 57,102
ESTC ELASTIC NV 8-Jan-21 O Ittai Kidron Software & Services 12,771
OLED UNIVERSAL DISPLAY CORP 8-Jan-21 O Martin Yang 2 Semiconductors & Semiconductor 11,084
NVDA NVIDIA CORP 9-May-20 O Richard Schafer 1 Semiconductors & Semiconductor 324,028
AVGO BROADCOM INC 18-Sep-20 O Richard Schafer 1 Semiconductors & Semiconductor 176,156
TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INC 18-Sep-20 O Richard Schafer 1 Semiconductors & Semiconductor 152,296
MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD 10-Jul-20 O Richard Schafer 1 Semiconductors & Semiconductor 32,451
QRVO QORVO INC 14-Aug-20 O Richard Schafer 1 Semiconductors & Semiconductor 20,165
MPWR MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS INC 9-May-20 O Richard Schafer 1 Semiconductors & Semiconductor 16,852
SMTC SEMTECH CORP 14-Aug-20 O Richard Schafer 1 Semiconductors & Semiconductor 4,838
KKR KKR & CO INC 5-Jun-20 O Christopher Kotowski 2 Diversified Financials 34,387
MS MORGAN STANLEY 27-Nov-20 O Christopher Kotowski 1 Diversified Financials 137,517
FOCS FOCUS FINANCIAL PARTNERS-A 8-Jan-21 O Owen Lau Diversified Financials 3,234
SPGI S&P GLOBAL INC 5-Jun-20 O Owen Lau 2 Diversified Financials 79,556
NDAQ NASDAQ INC 9-May-20 O Owen Lau 2 Diversified Financials 22,158
MRNA MODERNA INC 8-Jan-21 O Hartaj Singh Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology 46,579
CRSP CRISPR THERAPEUTICS AG 14-Aug-20 O Jay Olson 1 Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology 12,850
NVTA INVITAE CORP 18-Sep-20 O Kevin Degeeter 1 Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology 8,459
IOVA IOVANCE BIOTHERAPEUTICS INC 10-Jul-20 O Mark Breidenbach 2 Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology 7,024
CHE CHEMED CORP 14-Aug-20 O Michael Wiederhorn 3 Health Care Equipment & Servic 8,662
LHCG LHC GROUP INC 5-Jun-20 O Michael Wiederhorn 1 Health Care Equipment & Servic 6,922
ADUS ADDUS HOMECARE CORP 14-Aug-20 O Michael Wiederhorn 3 Health Care Equipment & Servic 1,919
UNH UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC 9-May-20 O Michael Wiederhorn 2 Health Care Equipment & Servic 342,752
HUM HUMANA INC 9-May-20 O Michael Wiederhorn 3 Health Care Equipment & Servic 57,822
TNDM TANDEM DIABETES CARE INC 9-May-20 O Steven Lichtman 3 Health Care Equipment & Servic 5,791
EW EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORP 14-Aug-20 O Suraj Kalia 3 Health Care Equipment & Servic 54,497
CSII CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS INC 8-Jan-21 O Suraj Kalia 5 Health Care Equipment & Servic 1,839
Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg. MO score (quintile readings, 1 = top score) based on a stock's 6-, 9-, and 12-month risk-adjusted return with the last month removed.
15
January 9, 2021Technical Analysis
Bonus Chart: Emerging Markets Breakout
This week’s bonus chart highlights a breakout for MSCI Emerging Markets. The index has rallied above its January 2018 peak and is closing
in on a test of its 2007 peak. In accordance with our global bull market outlook, we expect a larger breakout above this major 13-year
resistance level.
MSCI Emerging Markets
In spitting distance of its 2007 peak
Source: Oppenheimer & Co. and Bloomberg
16
January 9, 2021Technical Analysis
Key Takeaways
S&P 500 Sector and Industry Group Ranks
UW MW OW
Energy X
Market Outlook and Portfolio Themes Materials X
Industrials X
Broad-based breakaway leads us to expect a
Capital Goods x
continuation of the S&P 500’s recovery. Commercial & Professional Services x
Transportation x
We expect the market to swing between Beta and Safety Consumer Discretionary X
Automobiles & Components x
around a long-term bid for Growth. Consumer Durables & Apparel x
Consumer Services x
US over World, Small over Big, Cyclicals over Defensives, Retailing x
Growth over Value, Industrial Metals over Energy. Consumer Staples X
Food & Staples Retailing x
Food, Beverage & Tobacco x
Top Sector and Industry Ideas Household & Personal Products x
Health Care X
TEC: Semiconductors, Software HC Equipment & Services x
FIN: Capital Markets Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences x
IND: Capital Goods, Road & Rail Financials X
Banks x
DIS: Internet, Specialty Retail, Homebuilders Diversified Financials x
CSV: Interactive Services, Entertainment Insurance x
HLC: HC Equipment & Services, Biotechnology REITs X
Technology X
Software & Services x
Technology Hardware & Equipment x
Semis & Semi Equipment x
Communication Services X
Telecommunication Services x
Media & Entertainment x
Utilities X
Source: Oppenheimer & Co.
17
January 9, 2021Technical Analysis
Sector & Industry Snapshot: week of January 8
Our Sector & Industry Snapshot is a current and concise overview of the leaders and laggards
throughout the equity market. As a proxy for trend and momentum, this tool screens a
comprehensive list of broad market indexes, S&P sectors (relative to SPX), and all GICS level 3
industries relative to their respective sector. It is designed to be a differentiated performance
table and an unbiased starting point to help generate trend-following or mean-reverting ideas.
RSI calculates the avg. gain / avg. loss in a security over a specified period; in this case 14 weeks. High
readings (colored red; above 60) mark overbought and low readings (colored green; below 40) mark
oversold. Neutral readings are colored yellow (between 40 and 60).
As a proxy for Trend we use the crossover between the 50-day and 200-day moving average. A positive
percentage (colored green) indicates how far the 50D is above the 200D and a negative percentage
(colored red) indicates how far the 50D is below the 200D.
Key Market Indexes S&P 1500 Materials S&P 1500 Health Care
Absolute Price Momentum RSI Trend Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) RSI Trend Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) RSI Trend
S&P 500 Index 69 12% Metals & Mining 62 2% Life Sciences Tools & Services 66 8%
WTI Crude Oil future 67 19% Paper & Forest Products 57 1% Health Care Technology 59 3%
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield 64 24% Construction Materials 55 1% Health Care Providers & Services 59 4%
Gold spot 50 2% Chemicals 43 -1% Health Care Equipment & Supplies 57 3%
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) 34 -4% Containers & Packaging 37 2% Pharmaceuticals 36 -4%
Broad Market Equity Averages S&P 1500 Industrials Biotechnology 33 -8%
Relative to S&P 500 RSI Trend Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) RSI Trend S&P 1500 Financials
Russell 2000 73 10% Construction & Engineering 75 8% Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) RSI Trend
S&P 600 Small Cap 72 8% Machinery 71 3% Commercial Banks 65 2%
S&P 400 Mid Cap 69 6% Electrical Equipment 70 2% Consumer Finance 57 7%
S&P 500 Equal Weight 62 3% Marine 62 3% Thrifts & Mortgage Finance 56 4%
MSCI Emerging Markets 62 4% Building Products 60 4% Capital Markets 53 -1%
NASDAQ-100 59 3% Trading Companies & Distributors 58 0% Diversified Financial Services 31 -2%
MSCI EAFE Developed Markets 55 0% Road & Rail 56 -2% Insurance 25 -2%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 42 -1% Industrial Conglomerates 51 2% S&P 1500 REITs
S&P 100 Index 41 0% Airlines 50 6% Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) RSI Trend
S&P 500 Sectors Professional Services 45 -3% Real Estate Management & Develop 72 21%
Relative to S&P 500 RSI Trend Commercial Services & Supplies 44 -2% Equity REITs 29 -1%
Materials 65 4% Air Freight & Logistics 37 6% S&P 1500 Technology
Financials 62 2% Aerospace & Defense 30 -8% Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) RSI Trend
Consumer Discretionary 55 1% S&P 1500 Consumer Discretionary Electronic Equipment 69 7%
Technology 55 2% Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) RSI Trend Semis & Semi Equipment 64 5%
Energy 53 -7% Auto Components 71 12% Computers & Peripherals 59 6%
Industrials 52 5% Automobiles 67 16% IT Services 43 -4%
Health Care 47 -5% Textiles, Apparel & Luxury 64 10% Communications Equipment 42 -11%
Communication Services 44 1% Leisure Equipment & Products 62 6% Software 32 -4%
Utilities 33 -6% Multiline Retail 58 3% S&P 1500 Communication Services
REITs 29 -8% Distributors 53 2% Industry (GICL2) vs. Sector (GICL1) RSI Trend
Consumer Staples 28 -4% Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 48 3% Media & Entertainment 57 1%
Styles Household Durables 43 3% Telecommunication Services 33 -10%
Relative to S&P 500 RSI Trend Speciality Retail 41 -3% S&P 1500 Utilities
Russell 2000 Growth 74 10% Internet & Catalog Retail 37 -3% Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) RSI Trend
S&P 500 High Beta 69 13% Diversified Consumer Services 35 -10% Independent Power Producers 81 23%
Russell 2000 Value 68 9% S&P 1500 Consumer Staples Electric Utilities 72 1%
Russell 1000 Growth 55 2% Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) RSI Trend Water Utilities 66 3%
Russell 1000 Value 55 0% Personal Products 69 12% Gas Utilities 41 -4%
S&P High Yield Dividend 47 -1% Food & Staples Retailing 59 2% Multi-Utilities 20 -2%
S&P 500 Low Volatility 26 -5% Tobacco 52 -3%
S&P 1500 Energy Beverages 48 1%
Industry (GICL3) vs. Sector (GICL1) RSI Trend Food Products 43 -3% As of 08-Jan-21
Energy Equipment & Services 71 14% Household Products 40 -1%
Oil, Gas, & Consumable Fuels 29 -1% Source: Oppenheimer & Co. & Bloomberg.
18
January 9, 2021Technical Analysis
Stock prices of companies/ETFs mentioned in this report (as of January 8, 2021)
Ticker Primary Exchange Last Price
IGV Cboe BZX 355.3
IHF NYSE Arca 251.9
IHI NYSE Arca 341.1
SPHB NYSE Arca 60.5
XBI NYSE Arca 151.6
XLY NYSE Arca 168.2
19
January 9, 2021Technical Analysis
Disclosure Appendix
Important Disclosure Footnotes for Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are
Covered by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc:
Stock Prices as of January 9, 2021
Apple Inc. (AAPL - NASDAQ, $132.05, OUTPERFORM)
Arcosa, Inc. (ACA - NYSE, $61.00, OUTPERFORM)
Addus HomeCare Corporation (ADUS - NASDAQ, $121.67, OUTPERFORM)
Albemarle (ALB - NYSE, $184.10, OUTPERFORM)
Amazon.Com, Inc. (AMZN - NASDAQ, $3,182.70, OUTPERFORM)
Broadcom Ltd. (AVGO - NYSE, $445.64, OUTPERFORM)
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA - NYSE, $236.19, OUTPERFORM)
Chemed Corporation (CHE - NYSE, $547.70, OUTPERFORM)
Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST - NASDAQ, $369.94, OUTPERFORM)
Coupa Software, Inc. (COUP - NASDAQ, $345.00, OUTPERFORM)
Salesforce.com (CRM - NYSE, $222.04, OUTPERFORM)
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP - NASDAQ, $193.82, OUTPERFORM)
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD - NASDAQ, $223.73, OUTPERFORM)
Cardiovascular Systems, Inc. (CSII - NASDAQ, $46.37, OUTPERFORM)
Dollar General Corporation (DG - NYSE, $215.81, OUTPERFORM)
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ - NYSE, $388.83, OUTPERFORM)
Estée Lauder (EL - NYSE, $260.73, OUTPERFORM)
Equinix Inc. (EQIX - NASDAQ, $692.46, OUTPERFORM)
Elastic N.V. (ESTC - NYSE, $152.15, OUTPERFORM)
Etsy, Inc. (ETSY - NASDAQ, $175.65, OUTPERFORM)
Edwards LifeSciences (EW - NASDAQ, $90.67, OUTPERFORM)
Facebook, Inc. (FB - NASDAQ, $267.57, OUTPERFORM)
Focus Financial Partners (FOCS - NASDAQ, $47.67, OUTPERFORM)
frontdoor, inc. (FTDR - NASDAQ, $52.10, OUTPERFORM)
Helen of Troy Limited (HELE - NASDAQ, $214.10, OUTPERFORM)
Humana, Inc. (HUM - NYSE, $436.77, OUTPERFORM)
Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA - NASDAQ, $50.52, OUTPERFORM)
Itron, Inc. (ITRI - NASDAQ, $103.17, OUTPERFORM)
KKR & Co. (KKR - NYSE, $40.49, OUTPERFORM)
LHC Group, Inc. (LHCG - NASDAQ, $221.64, OUTPERFORM)
Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU - NASDAQ, $365.46, OUTPERFORM)
MongoDB, Inc. (MDB - NASDAQ, $359.86, OUTPERFORM)
Medallia, Inc. (MDLA - NYSE, $35.54, OUTPERFORM)
Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR - NASDAQ, $387.41, OUTPERFORM)
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA - NASDAQ, $112.75, OUTPERFORM)
Marvell Technology Group (MRVL - NASDAQ, $49.08, OUTPERFORM)
Morgan Stanley (MS - NYSE, $75.25, OUTPERFORM)
MSCI Inc. (MSCI - NYSE, $452.68, OUTPERFORM)
Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ - NASDAQ, $138.81, OUTPERFORM)
Cloudflare (NET - NYSE, $79.15, OUTPERFORM)
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX - NASDAQ, $510.40, OUTPERFORM)
NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA - NASDAQ, $531.07, OUTPERFORM)
InVitae Corp. (NVTA - NYSE, $51.13, OUTPERFORM)
Okta, Inc. (OKTA - NASDAQ, $253.12, OUTPERFORM)
20Technical Analysis
Universal Display Corp. (OLED - NASDAQ, $247.17, OUTPERFORM)
Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA - NASDAQ, $93.47, OUTPERFORM)
Qorvo, Inc. (QRVO - NASDAQ, $179.40, OUTPERFORM)
Redfin Corporation (RDFN - NASDAQ, $76.51, PERFORM)
RingCentral (RNG - NYSE, $387.95, OUTPERFORM)
Rockwell Automation (ROK - NYSE, $261.81, OUTPERFORM)
Roku, Inc. (ROKU - NASDAQ, $399.13, OUTPERFORM)
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - NASDAQ, $105.67, OUTPERFORM)
Semtech Corp. (SMTC - OTC, $74.29, OUTPERFORM)
Snap Inc. (SNAP - NYSE, $52.73, OUTPERFORM)
S&P Global Inc. (SPGI - NYSE, $326.85, OUTPERFORM)
Tencent Holdings Ltd. (TCEHY - OTC PK, $76.94, OUTPERFORM)
Atlassian Corporation Plc (TEAM - NASDAQ, $235.48, OUTPERFORM)
TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL - NYSE, $130.47, OUTPERFORM)
Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (TNDM - NASDAQ, $97.59, OUTPERFORM)
The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD - NASDAQ, $795.81, OUTPERFORM)
Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO - NASDAQ, $210.43, OUTPERFORM)
Texas Instruments (TXN - NYSE, $171.16, OUTPERFORM)
UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH - NYSE, $363.39, OUTPERFORM)
Workday, Inc. (WDAY - NYSE, $227.65, OUTPERFORM)
Walmart Inc. (WMT - NYSE, $146.63, OUTPERFORM)
XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO - NYSE American, $125.90, OUTPERFORM)
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21Technical Analysis
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22Technical Analysis
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23Technical Analysis
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