Terras-Raras - Visão Geral do Mercado Global, Desafios e Oportunidades - Visão Geral do Mercado Global, Desafios e ...
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Terras-Raras - Visão
Geral do Mercado Global,
Desafios e Oportunidades
12-14.abr.2021
David Merriman – Manager - Battery and
Electric Vehicle Materials Division, Londres
Márcio Goto – Gerente Regional América Latina
marcio@roskill.com
Celular/ WhatsApp: +11 99 726 4466
Fixo: +11 5051 8124
São Paulo, SP - www.roskill.com
marcio@roskill.com
Disclaimer The statements in this presentation represent the considered views of Roskill Information Services Ltd. It includes certain statements that may be deemed "forward-looking statements“. All statements in this presentation, other than statements of historical facts, that address future market developments, government actions and events, are forward-looking statements. Although Roskill Information Services Ltd. believes the outcomes expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those in forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in forward-looking statements include changes in general economic, market or business conditions. While Roskill Information Services Ltd. has made every reasonable effort to ensure the veracity of the information presented it cannot expressly guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the estimates, forecasts and conclusions contained herein. Accordingly, the statements in the presentation should be used for general guidance only.
3
Demand overview
After a difficult start, 2020 was a positive year for some REE end-use markets
(t REO) • Rare earth demand fell to 131.4kt REO
150.000 in 2020, a y-on-y reduction of 4.8%, the
first reduction since 2012
• Rare earth demand from magnet
100.000 application increased to 38.6kt REO
• Magnet use still dominated by 3C
applications, though demand structure
50.000 is rapidly changing
• Covid-19 related disruption to FCC
catalyst demand and auto-catalyst
demand impacted La and Ce
0 significantly in 2020
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
• Disruption to supply chains also saw
Batteries Catalysts Ceramics Glass Magnets reduced demand for Y from ceramic
Metallurgy Phosphors Pigments Polishing Others applications in 2020
Source: Thomson Reuters, Roskill
REE: Rare earths elements – REO: Rare earths oxide - 3C: computing, communication & consumers – FCC: fluid catalytic cracking
Copyright © March 2021 Roskill Information Services Ltd
marcio@roskill.com
4
Supply – shares – China dominating
Copyright © February 2021 Roskill Information Services Ltd
marcio@roskill.com
Supply – Some Non-Chinese Mines Operations 5
and Projects (2020)
1
1
1
Copyright © February 2021 Roskill Information Services Ltd
marcio@roskill.com
6
Demand outlook
Rare earths industry transition underway to meet magnet requirements
• Rare earth demand is forecast to reach
Forecast demand by end-use application (t REO)
in excess of 188kt REO by 2030
200.000 • Magnet demand is forecast to form 36%
of demand by 2030 (29% in 2020)
150.000 • Other rare earth applications expected
to show growth, though overshadowed
100.000 by magnet demand
• Refocussing of REE industry onto
50.000 magnet materials, though the existing
projects are not all suited to this new
distribution
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 • Nd, Pr and Dy targeted by new projects
Batteries Catalysts Ceramics Glass Magnets
(monazite and ion adsorption clays)
Metallurgy Phosphors Pigments Polishing Others • Though brings with it further challenges
when considering ESG criteria
ESG: Environmental, Social and Governance
Copyright © February 2021 Roskill Information Services Ltd
marcio@roskill.com
7
Magnet demand outlook
EV drive trains and wind turbines to spearhead demand growth
NdFeB demand by end-use application (t NdFeB) Distribution of REE demand in magnet applications
(% REO demand)
200.000
Air conditioning
150.000
Wind turbines
100.000
Other Automotive
50.000
Drivetrain
0
Consumer electronics
Consumer elec. Other auto and vehicle
Drivetrain (xEV) Wind turbines 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Air-con other NdFeB Nd Pr Dy-Tb Others
Copyright © February 2021 Roskill Information Services Ltd
marcio@roskill.com
8
NdFeB magnet demand – not all magnets are created equal
Other Automotive Production process and Rare Earths element:
3C Electronics Household Applications
N58
N56 56M 56H 56SH Dy free grade
N54 54M 54H 54SH 54UH
All Nd + Pr demand, some Ce and Gd for cost
Drivetrains saving
BH max [MGsOe]
N52 52M 52H 52SH 52UH
N50 50M 50H 50SH 50UH 50EH GBD (grain boundary diffusion)+ Fine grain tech
N48 48M 48H 48SH 48UH 48EH Similar HREE content to other GBD alloys
N45 45M 45H 45SH 45UH 45EH 45AH
N42 42M 42H 42SH 42UH 42EH 42AH GBD process
N40 40M 40H 40SH 40UH 40EH 40AH
Reduced Dy content
9
Supply outlook
Forecast showed targeting of Nd-Pr and HREE production
1,7
Indexed
Forecast REO supply by element groups, 2020-2030 (t REO) 1,5
1,3
250.000
1,1
0,9
200.000
2021
2030
2020
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
150.000
• La & Ce will continue to dominate supply
outlook as LREE production is expanded
100.000
from bastnaesite/monazite type projects
• Recycling only way to avoid over-
50.000
production of other REEs
0 • Nd-Pr and HREE oxide production to
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 experience targeted production
La-Ce oxide Nd-Pr SEG oxide HRE oxide Y oxide • Magnet products to form an increasing
proportion of mixed product value
Copyright © February 2021 Roskill Information Services Ltd
marcio@roskill.com
10
Market Balance outlook
Nd & Dy demand to remain tight, with strong growth and limited supply
Tight supply
Tight supply Supply- side influence
Deficit
Low-grade magnets Surplus Some Dy-replacement
Copyright © February 2021 Roskill Information Services Ltd
marcio@roskill.com11
Industry integration
Multi-company supply chains initiate industry, though can limit
growth & competitiveness
Mined products Mixed RE Comps Separated Products RE Metal/Alloy NdFeB Magnets
China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High Tech
Guangdong Rare Earth Group
Xiamen Tungsten
Lynas Rare Earths
MP Materials
Chemours Energy Fuels Neo Performance Materials
Copyright © February 2021 Roskill Information Services Ltd
marcio@roskill.com12
Supply must be incentivized
Future supply needs to be incentivized via pricing and secure off-takers
Pricing must be carefully balanced to attract investment
and provide sufficient IRR% for investors though not
create surging supply (i.e. lithium market)
Downstream industry must support long-term upstream
supply to justify investments. Investment in
intermediate stages (metal, alloy, compounds, polishing
powder, magnets). New revenue for Ce/La also
beneficial.
Legislation to develop regional and domestic supply
chains needs to be sustained outside of China, though
must be longer-term solutions.
Copyright © February 2021 Roskill Information Services Ltd
marcio@roskill.com13
Environmental, Social and Governance
Will ESG legislation in Europe and North America be a cliff edge moment?
Copyright © February 2021 Roskill Information Services Ltd
marcio@roskill.comComo a Roskill poderia lhes ajudar
marcio@roskill.com• Roskill has been serving customers
• in more than 100 countries
• for more than 90 years
• We deliver:
• independent data and analysis
• from local research,
• made by locals and by a dedicated
and experienced team in London
• with knowledge along the value chain
• Specialists in “technology materials”,
industrial minerals and steel alloys
• Specialists on market and cost
competitiveness
marcio@roskill.comPublications
• Roskill has a range of research reports aligned to:
• EV raw materials, Copper & technology metals Jan.2021
Edition
• Industrial minerals & chemicals and steel alloys
• Analysis of production, consumption, costs, trade &
prices
• Detailed information on processing & end-uses
• Ten-year forecasts for supply, demand & prices
• Country profiles and Companies profiles
• Quarterly updates
• Responses for market questions 89 pages with 53
companies profiles:
assets, resources and
reserves, mines and
plants data
https://roskill.com/market-report/rare-earths/
marcio@roskill.comPublications
Table of Contents
Page Jan.2021
1. Executive summary 1 Edition
2. Rare earth flowchart 17
3. World production 18
4. Production cost analysis 26
5. World consumption 31
6. International trade 40
7. Prices 57
8. Outlook to 2030 67
9. Background 97
10. Sustainability 135
11. Country profiles 155
12. End-use 215
13. Company profile 345
14. Macro economic outlook 434
https://roskill.com/market-report/rare-earths/
marcio@roskill.comConsulting
•Cost studies
•Custom Market Analysis •Go-to-market Services
•Due Diligence •Strategic Advisory Services
•Feasibility Study Input & Financing Support •Socio-economic Impact Assessments
marcio@roskill.comOur commodity coverage…
Comprehensive coverage of critical materials
Regular reports & consulting
Bespoke consulting
marcio@roskill.comEvents
https://roskill.com/event/on-the-road-tokyo-2021/ https://roskill.com/event/on-the-road-london-2021/
marcio@roskill.comWeekly News – with Roskill’s View
free
https://roskill.com/news/
https://roskill.com/news/rare-earths-new-rare-earths-production-
initiative-to-strengthen-non-chinese-supply-chain/Algumas referências (publicadas por clientes)
marcio@roskill.comObrigado!
Márcio Goto - São Paulo, SP
marcio@roskill.com
Celular/ WhatsApp:
+11 99 726 4466
Fixo:
+11 5051 8124
www.roskill.com
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