The 2015 UK General Election - A Cicero Group analysis - M A Y
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The 2015 UK General Election A Cicero Group analysis M A Y 2015 1
Foreword
Britain wakes up to an electoral bombshell. A small Tory his next term is a little easier and the parallels stop right
majority NO ONE predicted – not even the Conservatives there!
themselves.
The memory of that misery is still there for most
Pollsters have their heads in their hands this morning Conservatives. Never again? We shall see.
and with good reason. This was the 1992 election all
over again – the pollsters seemed unable to capture the
‘shy’ Tories.
Iain Anderson
And the big beasts– Ed Balls – Danny Alexander – Director and Chief Corporate
Douglas Alexander – Vince Cable – Ed Davey – Jim Counsel
Murphy – fell like skittles to the Tory and the SNP Cicero Group
advance.
The only poll that proved right was the exit poll at 10pm
last night. No one dared to believe it.
We now witness the Balkanisation of British politics – we
have four parties in lead place in the four countries that
make up the UK. Conservatives dominant in England
– the SNP – the lion ‘rampant’ in Scotland – Labour
leading in Wales and the DUP in Northern Ireland.
While David Cameron is settling back into Downing
Street and forming a Government – Farage, Clegg and
Miliband have resigned.
Politics is a brutal business indeed.
For Labour and the Liberal Democrats – this result is
nothing short of a total disaster. The wounds will take
some time to heal.
But business seems happier - market reaction has been
strong – bank and utilities leapt up to 7% in early trading
as the planned for heavy regulation of the sectors won’t
materialise now.
So the key priority for the new – majority - Government
will be the constitutional debate in the EU and Scotland.
I expect this to eat into much Government time – these
issues will dominate the first 2 years of this Government.
And after that EU referendum – it may well be time for
the Prime Minister to stand back and we will see a new
Tory leader. I expect Cameron to win that vote to keep
the UK in Europe – but there may be a price to pay with
his party.
But – rightly - he can now present a Queen’s Speech
without the need to negotiate with other parties. That is
quite an achievement. The first Conservative leader to
win a majority since John Major. The PM will be hoping
2
Contents / Cicero Elections analysis
2 Foreword
3 Contents
4 What to expect now - The implications for business
5 Cicero Elections analysis - Britain unbound
6 What happens next / Queen’s Speech overview
7 Election results map
8 What were the key regional battles?
9 How did each party do?
11 Party leadership elections
3
What to expect now - The implications for business
This election result has shocked the whole nation, they are serious over their pledges to build an additional
business included. A Conservative majority was not 200,000 homes a year and to unlock more homes on
expected and businesses will now need to adapt their brownfield land.
plans accordingly. The subsequent rise in markets would
suggest a positive initial reaction. Businesses will now A continued focus on a competitive business tax
hope that a Conservative majority government will deliver environment to attract foreign investment will be another
economic growth and a pro-business environment. important component of the economic growth agenda.
Additionally, we can expect a review of business rates
The key positive from this result should be a more and a further crackdown on tax avoidance and evasion.
stable legislative environment. Gone are the prospects
of backroom deals between multiple parties. The The majority of this programme is good news for
Conservatives have a workable majority and will be able business. But an ongoing business risk will be continuing
to construct and pass a Queen’s Speech based on their uncertainty over two vital issues – an EU referendum
manifesto framework. and further Scottish devolution.
This will also enable the Conservatives to continue the This Conservative majority guarantees an EU
work of the previous Government and to offer businesses referendum by the end of 2017 and the uncertainty that
policy continuity. All of this means that we have a clearer comes with this. EU reform and the UK’s role in Europe
picture of the future policy landscape than had been will be dominating issues in Parliament over the next
expected. two years. Businesses will have to plan accordingly and
navigate their way through a potentially fractious political
Banks can expect the Conservatives to oversee the debate.
implementation of the Vickers ring-fence, promote further
competition in the sector and encourage more funding The SNP’s overwhelming victory in Scotland will ensure
sources for SMEs. Alongside this, there will be focus on that they continue to press for further devolution. Senior
improving consumer protection, encouraging greater Conservative figures such as Boris Johnson are already
customer switching through methods such as account calling for a big federal offer. The key question for
portability, and a renewed emphasis on innovation. business will be whether this includes fiscal autonomy.
Additionally, do not be surprised if you see further activity David Cameron faces the unenviable task of trying to
on executive remuneration and corporate governance. resist this call while also beginning to rebuild links with
Scottish voters. This will also raise fresh questions
The pensions industry can now look to the first over the future of English votes and further regional
Conservative Pensions Minister in almost 20 years. devolution.
These should result in a continuation of the philosophy
behind the pension freedoms, and encouragement This result means that we now have a degree of certainty
of greater product innovation. The rollout of automatic over the initial legislative programme in this Parliament.
enrolment will also continue and the planned review of However, large questions remain over European
financial fairness may see the introduction of caps on membership and the future of the Union. Another key
pension fees. question to consider will be whether Conservative
discipline holds steady over the Parliament. This will be a
This review will be led by Ros Altmann, who will be raised vital factor for ensuring a stable legislative environment.
to the Lords and will take on a new role overseeing
consumer protection. Expect to see a renewed focus
on financial education and advice as part of this. The Tom Frackowiak
post-RDR landscape still concerns many Conservative Executive Director for UK
MPs and there will be calls for action in this area. This Public Affairs
could be driven by a Treasury Select Committee under Cicero Group
the leadership of Andrew Tyrie.
A key plank of the Conservative economic growth
agenda will be early action on infrastructure and capital
investment, beginning with moves to build the ‘Northern
Powerhouse’ and HS2. This could also be matched by
an early announcement on airport expansion as well.
The Conservatives will now be expected to show that
4
What happens next?
New Parliament Select Committee Possible
Queen’s Speech
summoned Elections Emergency Budget
27 May 2015
18 May 2015 May - June 2015 TBC June 2015
May June
Mansion House
Speech
June 2015
Summer
Party conferences Autumn Statement
Spending Review
19 September - 7 November/
TBC Autumn 2015
October 2015 December 2015
Autumn
The Queen’s Speech
Expected Bills:
An In/Out EU referendum will be the defining feature of the first Queen’s
Speech of this Parliament. With a majority in the Commons, Cameron
EU Referendum Bill: Legislate for an
may look to bring the vote forward a year early from the 2017 deadline,
In/Out EU referendum
in part to avoid other EU member state national elections in 2017,
along with the UK’s presidency of the EU in the second half of 2017.
Tax Bill:- Introduce a lock to prevent
any rise in National Insurance, VAT or
The Conservatives promised to introduce a tax lock if elected, a
Income Tax over next five years.
commitment to legislate against any rises in VAT, Income Tax or
National Insurance over the next five years. The move will leave little
Housing Bill: Extend the Right
fiscal room for the Conservatives, with the party solely dependent
to Buy scheme to 1.3m housing
on economic growth and spending cuts to reduce the deficit.
association tenants
Housing has risen up the political agenda with the squeeze
Enterprise Bill: Reduce red tape for
on affordable housing, particularly in the South East. One of
small businesses
Cameron’s retail offers during the campaign was to extend
the Right to Buy scheme to housing association tenants. Also
Employment Bill: Create 3m new
expect measures to build more affordable housing for first time
apprenticeships and double the
buyers, aimed at voters saving with the new Help to Buy ISA.
amount of free childcare for working
parents.
The Conservatives’ drive to support small businesses is set to continue,
with measures to reduce cumbersome red tape and review business
Education Bill: Deliver more
rates. Also, an Employment Bill to deliver more apprenticeships
academy schools and force new
and tougher requirements on the young unemployed people will
leadership teams on underperforming
carry on the economic programme seen over the last five years.
schools.
The issue of boundary reform is also back on the agenda, along with
Communications Data Bill: Require
English Votes for English Laws. There is an outside chance that the
phone and internet providers to store
Conservatives will look to move quickly on one or both of these within
records of emails, text messages,
the same piece of legislation.
web browsing and voice calls.
5
Cicero Elections analysis
Britain unbound
Presented with the clearest political choices between ones. One MP in exchange for 3.8 million votes does
Left, Right and Nationalist politics, the voters stunned seem like a raw deal, but the party is responsible for
the political sphere with their ferociousness. failing to seriously challenge in its target seats of
Castle Point, Thurrock and Cambourne and Redruth.
This election revealed two frightening aspects about Regrouping after Farage’s capitulation will be a true test
our electorate: Firstly, they are ruthlessly unsentimental. of the party’s maturity.
Both Douglas Alexander and Jim Murphy had been MPs
for 18 years and enjoyed a combined majority of 27,000 The SNP is now a bull in the Westminster china shop,
votes, but they were swept aside without a second but its horns have been corked by the Conservative
thought. majority. Such was the swing of so many seats, it’s hard
to imagine that the SNP’s new-found dominance of
Secondly, voters seem to have moved like an ice shelf Scotland will be short-lived. We don’t yet know how the
in an avalanche, suddenly breaking away en masse. party will go about pursuing its devolution/independence
Scotland speaks for itself, but a similar pattern emerged agenda, but we do know that PMQs is about to become
with Liberal Democrat voters in the South West, and much louder...
also in London. We knew a shift was coming, but the
scale of movement may have changed the UK’s political Britain unbound has handed the fire of power to the
landscape for a generation. Conservatives, but David Cameron must beware. We
have seen the power of the electorate’s wrath, and it
The Conservatives’ success is due to a ‘sword and will be watching the Prime Minister’s handling of the
shield’ approach that saw the party shield 25 of its forthcoming European Referendum very carefully.
most vulnerable seats from Labour assaults across the
midlands, whilst making successful thrusts into Liberal Dan Regan
Democrat seats across the South. Labour’s top five Head of Cicero Elections
target seats had a combined majority of 660 votes, and Cicero Group
the Tories preserved all of them.
Labour was the victim of momentum. From losing the
first marginal fight in Nuneaton to the surprise defeat of
Ed Balls six hours later, Labour failed to establish itself
outside of London all night. The vision of Miliband’s
Labour was admirably ambitious but he could not
convince the British people to follow him. Post-mortems
will look at his leadership, policies and campaign, but
ultimately, Britain was not willing for the steep turn to the
left that he was offering.
The remaining Liberal Democrat MPs owe their survival
to luck more than anything. The highly-focused ‘25
seat’ rearguard action was completely overwhelmed.
Seniority and local popularity mattered little as the party
was almost decimated. Last week, the South West
was a nest of strongholds; today, not a single Liberal
Democrat MP exists South of Guildford. Nick Clegg may
be remembered as the leader that inherited a party with
52 seats, and left one with eight, but the next five years
may just show how crucial his party was in guiding (and
restraining) the Conservatives.
In England, UKIP proved to be Miliband’s fifth column,
coming second in more Labour seats than Conservative
6
Election results map Key:
Conservative
Labour
UKIP
Liberal Democrats
Scottish National Party
Green Party
Plaid Cymru
DUP
SF
UUP
7
What were the key regional battles?
Scotland • The SNP won 50% of the Scottish vote share, more than double Labour’s.
As a result, the SNP boast 56 seats, with the three ‘main’ parties each
keeping one apiece.
• Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats suffered senior losses with the
former losing their foreign secretary, financial secretary, pensions minister
and Scottish leader.
South West
• A Conservative killing ground where the election was decided. Once a
nest of a dozen Liberal Democrat seats, there is now not a single Liberal
Democrat MP south of Guildford.
London • Labour were encouraged by victories in the three Liberal Democrat seats in
the city.
• However, they were unable to break through in key target Conservative
seats in North West London, and in Croydon South and Vauxhall.
• Following this election, the capital is now a lighthouse of red in a sea of blue
in the South, with the next closest cluster of Labour seats in Birmingham.
South East
• The Conservatives protected their heartlands from any UKIP surge and ran
the Liberal Democrats out of the region.
• The Green Party holds on to its only seat, with Caroline Lucas maintaining
her beachhead in Brighton.
Northern corridor
• This corridor of Conservative-Labour seats was key as each win effectively
counted as two. Labour failed to breakthrough in their must-win target
seats.
• Crucially, the Conservatives protected four fifths of their vulnerable seats in
this area and even snatched a small number of Labour seats from their own
target list.
Midlands
• In this area, the two parties relied on their core votes to build their seat
numbers up.
• There was very little interchange between the two parties, with Birmingham
remaining red and the Tories holding onto Staffordshire and Leicestershire.
8
How did each party do?
Conservative party analysis Labour party analysis
The Conservatives performed much Commentators broadly agreed that Ed
more strongly than expected, winning a Miliband had ‘a good campaign’. The
surprise, modest majority. The exit polls had national polls showed Labour neck and
suggested the Conservatives would be the neck with the Conservatives right up to the
largest party, but failed to realise the success last. Labour was confident that it would win
they would have in Southern Liberal Democrat seats . the ‘ground war’. But as soon as that exit poll appeared,
The Prime Minister no longer needs coalition partners it was clear that something had gone seriously awry for
to pass legislation, but with such a narrow majority, he Ed Miliband’s party. Despite prior assumptions that they
may be keen to engender vote-by-vote support on key would make at least 20-30 gains in crucial Tory-held
legislation with the Irish DUP. marginal, this simply didn’t materialise. Only a handful
of gains were made from the Conservatives, and even
It appears the Conservative campaign was successful these were cancelled out by losses in the opposite
in raising fears of a Labour-SNP alliance, driving English direction – including, in a stunning upset, Ed Balls’
voters towards the Conservatives. Voters may have also Morley and Outwood seat.
been fearful of change to the UK’s economic trajectory,
as growth has returned and unemployment continues Labour made some significant gains from the Lib Dems
to drop. However, they do also seem to have benefited – for example ousting Simon Hughes in Bermondsey
from voters simply abandoning the Liberal Democrats. – but ‘Labour gain’ was simply a phrase heard far
Regardless of how victory was achieved, Lynton Crosby, too infrequently on the night. The losses to the SNP
the party’s election guru, should feel vindicated. in Scotland were enormous, with only Ian Murray in
Edinburgh South managing to withstand the avalanche.
The victory will bolster Prime Minister David Cameron’s But even without these losses Labour would still have
standing in the party. Although, with such a narrow been well short of mustering the numbers to deprive
majority, some are comparing this victory to Sir John David Cameron of his victory.
Major’s in 1992, whose leadership was vulnerable
to internal rebellion. One clear potential flashpoint is It is now clear that Ed Miliband will stand aside as Labour
the Conservatives’ promised referendum on the UK’s leader. Both inside and outside of the Labour party
membership of the EU. questions will again be asked as to whether he was ever
the right man for the job. Critics will argue that his ‘core
Cameron has said that he, and his government, will vote’ strategy of seeking to appeal to the traditional Labour
campaign in favour of EU membership, which puts him at base and draw a line under New Labour, while never
loggerheads with around 100 Eurosceptic Conservative fully overcoming the perception that Labour profligacy
backbenchers. The chances of internal instability will caused the recession, was always likely to make gains
only be increased by Cameron’s announcement that in Tory marginal difficult. But in Miliband’s defence,
he does not intend to stand for a third term. As a result, such arguments had largely gone silent during the
party infighting could lead to Cameron stepping down campaign as he generally outperformed expectations.
from the leadership after a referendum in 2017, allowing Others will say that the crucial decisive factor was not
a fresh leader to reunite the party. Given this possible Miliband’s leadership, but the effective way in which the
internal battle on the European issue, there could be Conservatives ‘weaponised’ the prospect of Labour in
days in the next Parliament when Cameron struggles government only with SNP support in the final weeks of
to control his own party more than he ever did with his the campaign.
former coalition partners.
The post-mortem will run long in the Labour Party.
Whatever conclusions are ultimately reached, there is
no doubt that this was a devastating blow for a party
and a leader that truly believed they could return to office
after a single term of opposition.
9
How did each party do?
Scottish National Party analysis advantage. With so few incumbents after today, they will
have to learn to win many more new seats, or recapture
The prophecies came true and the Scottish those lost.
National Party (SNP) came remarkably close
to a clean sweep of Scotland’s 59 seats They may now focus on council seats, becoming a very
in the House of Commons. In the process localised party, with central office acting in more of a
they claimed some notable scalps from coordinating, rather than leadership role. It could take a
both Labour and the Lib Dems, including the Shadow generation for the party to recover nationally, if they ever
Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander, Scottish Labour do. Much of the Greens’ support was formed of former
leader Jim Murphy and Chief Secretary to the Treasury Lib Dems, and they lost many voters to Labour and the
Danny Alexander. Many of the 56 seats they won were Conservatives. The party will now need to communicate
on unprecedented swings of around 35% and above. It its policy platform to new, young voters, perhaps those
is now crystal clear – if it was not already – that the SNP too young to remember tuition fees, and work to bring
surge we have seen since the independence referendum departing supporters back into the fold.
is absolutely real.
UKIP analysis
But ironically, despite performing at the top end of their UKIP will claim they are a victim of an unfair
expectations, that UK-wide result means that the SNP will voting system, as they obtained millions of
not hold the degree of influence that had been predicted. votes but returned just one MP, Douglas
Rather than ‘locking out’ the Conservatives through a Carswell. In South Thanet Nigel Farage
loose arrangement with Labour, the large SNP group will failed, in his seventh and perhaps best
instead need to be noisy from the Opposition benches chance of winning a seat in Parliament, and
and hope that they can still wring concessions out of a has kept his promise to resign.
Tory government, particularly on a radical offer on further
devolution to Scotland, or even moves towards a federal Two issues will now dominate the party. The first is a
model. leadership election. This will fundamentally change a
party shaped, and dominated, by its leader. Contenders
But make no mistake, the SNP landslide represents a to replace Farage? Douglas Carswell is certainly in the
seismic shift in the UK political landscape. With momentum frame, with perhaps a more cerebral UKIP, focused
firmly on their side, and a Conservative Government on rights and electoral freedoms, or MEPs Suzanne
now unburdened by Coalition, a second independence Evans and Paul Nuttall.
referendum within the next five years must be seen as a
real possibility. The second issue is electoral reform. Both Carswell,
in his winning speech, and Nigel Farage, in his losing
Liberal Democrats analysis
one, highlighted the spectre of electoral reform. Farage
For the Liberal Democrats, this was never called for “real, genuine and radical political reform”;
going to be a strong performance. That’s perhaps the party will now take over the mantle from
something we’ve known since support sharply the Liberal Democrats as the main party advocating
dropped following the reversal of a pledge on proportional representation.
tuition fees in 2010, but few thought it would
be this bad. Coalition with the ‘nasty party’ has punished UKIP’s big impact on the election has been as the
the Lib Dems with voters on the centre-left. The most spoiler. Polling well in northern seats and southern
cautious seat projections had the Lib Dems around 20 working class areas, the party has deprived Labour
seats, or just under. With only eight seats remaining, of a number of opportunities to win seats from the
they will have no role in coalition, the cornerstone of their Conservatives, such as in Thurrock, a UKIP target, and
campaign. Moreover, they have been sent a message Pudsey. The country now waits to see what’s next for
never to do it again; the UK is not ready for long-term UKIP.
cross-party governance.
Ben Collins
The Liberal Democrats fought a hard campaign and Senior Account Manager
expected to be disappointed but this went beyond their Cicero Group
worst fears; 20 seats was seen as a low estimate, eight
seats is an annihilation. The Liberal Democrats have been
known for their strength on local issues and incumbency
10Party leadership elections
Following the election, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and UKIP will start the processes to elect a new leader. The
various methods and potential front runners are set out below:
The contenders:
The party rules state that the Deputy Leader will
take over, with the governing body (the NEC)
Yvette Cooper, an experienced and well-
setting out a timetable. liked minister and shadow minister
Any contenders will need to secure nominations
from at least 15 per cent of MPs, and the winner
is likely to be announced at the party’s autumn Andy Burnham, a popular figure
amongst the grass-roots
conference after a ballot of party members.
Chuka Umunna, a charismatic shadow
minister from the next generation in the party
The contenders:
Tim Farron, popular amongst members
and not tainted by being a member of the
Candidates need 10 per cent of MPs to Coalition Government. Hot favourite.
support their nomination, in addition to 200
party members from 20 different constituency
organisations. Party members are then balloted. Norman Lamb, well-respected with a
positive record on issues such as mental
The party’s Federal Executive sets out the final health
timetable.
Alastair Carmichael, a centrist with
cabinet experience
The contenders:
Douglas Carswell, the party’s first and
only MP
Nominees for the UKIP leadership require Suzanne Evans, deputy chairman, head
the signature of a proposer and 50 members, of policy and effective spokesperson
drawn from at least 10 different constituency
associations or branches. A postal ballot of all
members then takes place.
Paul Nuttall, an MEP and party insider
11Cicero Group is an integrated communications agency specialising in corporate PR, Government relations, digital
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