The Berry Sector Is Still Growing... But Hasn't Grown Up Yet - The Big Picture At a Glance - Global Berry Congress
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The Berry Sector Is Still Growing...
But Hasn’t Grown Up Yet
The Big Picture At a Glance
Cindy van Rijswick – 20 March 2018
RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness
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2
The berry market is still g(r)o(w)ing
strong
Average annual consumption growth in Western Europe (CAGR%)
30
2007-2012 2012-2017 Rabobank outlook 2017-22
25
20
15
%
10
5
0
all fruit blueberries strawberries raspberries
Source: Rabobank based on Euromonitor, UN-Comtrade, 2018. 3
‘Other’ berries continue to gain share
US berry market development (in volume)
4,000 Mill lb
3,500
3,000 5.7%
1.5%
2,500
7.6%
1.5% 2,000
1,500 20.2%
6.8% 1,000
500 66.5%
90.2%
0
Strawberries Blueberries Raspberries Blackberries
Source: USDA/ERS, University of California, Rabobank 2018
4
US and Europe absorb most of the growth
in blackberry and raspberry trade
Blackberry and raspberry imports
76
US
Spain
64%
Source: UN-Comtrade, 2018.
5
Blueberry market growth is more
widespread around the globe
5 year blueberry import growth (volume 2011-16)
100
Million kg
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
-
Source: UN-Comtrade, 2018.
6
Growers keep investing in higher
quality and flavour
Strawberry production area in glasshouses in the Netherlands
450
400
350
300
250
ha
200
150
100
50
0
Source: CBS, 2018 and Rabobank forecast.
7
A society of snackers!
Consumption of snackable fruit and veg
is on the rise
% changes fresh F&V retail spend, US 2012-2016
52%
39% 33%
16% 15% 16%
All All All Value-Added Value-Added All Packaged
F&V Fruits Vegetables Fruits Vegetables Salads
Source: United Fresh Produce Association, Nielsen Perishables Group, Rabobank 2017
9
But the news isn’t all berry good, with
sustainability issues still ahead…
10…and uncertainties about the future
of international trade
11Increasingly labour will be a
constraint for the global berry sector
Change in 15-35 age cohort in Mexico Undocumented Mexicans in US
Annual change
800,000
2007
700,000
6.9
600,000
million
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
2016
100,000
5.6
0
-100,000
million
-200,000
Source: Washington State University, World Bank, Pew Research Center 12Beware of expanding a little bit too
much, too fast
Export raspberries and blackberries
13
Source: UN-Comtrade, 2018Price levels will bottom out in due
time
Blackberry supply and price development in the US market
Mill lb USD/Flat
180 17.00
160 16.00
140
15.00
120
100 14.00
80 13.00
60
12.00
40
20 11.00
- 10.00
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total Conv Q (lhs) Conv Wtd Price (rhs)
Source: USDA, 2018 14100%
perfection
required, all
along the
supply chain,
from grower to
retail shelf
15…but the global
The market outlook berry industry should
is still robust… go for sustainable
growth
16Rabobank supports the fruit sector with
finance, knowledge and networks
17Thank you for your attention
far.rabobank.com
cindy.van.rijswick@rabobank.com
@crijswick
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information in this document reflects prevailing market conditions and our judgement as of this date, all of which may be subject to change. This document is based on public
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