The Broker INSIDE THIS ISSUE - Warning: Not taking Financial Advice can seriously damage your Wealth - Brokers Ireland

Page created by Keith Glover
 
CONTINUE READING
The Broker INSIDE THIS ISSUE - Warning: Not taking Financial Advice can seriously damage your Wealth - Brokers Ireland
The Broker
THE OFFICIAL MAGAZINE OF THE PROFESSIONAL INSURANCE BROKERS ASSOCIATION                       ISSUE 43 WINTER 2013

                                                                  INSIDE THIS ISSUE

                                                                   Warning: Not taking Financial Advice
                                                                   can seriously damage your Wealth

                                                                   Keep on Running

                                                                   PIBA Excellence Awards 2013
The Broker INSIDE THIS ISSUE - Warning: Not taking Financial Advice can seriously damage your Wealth - Brokers Ireland
We believe every market,
                                                           region and asset class
                                                           should be accessible for
                                                           every client. Every day.
                                                           You invest time identifying local opportunities to give your
                                                           clients every advantage. At J.P. Morgan Asset Management
                                                           we want to make sure the world is truly in your hands.
                                                           With nearly 1,300 investment professionals working across
                                                           thousands of investment opportunities, we invest in local
                                                           knowledge, globally.

                                                                   For more information please contact
                                                                   your usual representative or visit
                                                                   www.jpmorganassetmanagement.com

Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out, unless otherwise stated, are J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s own as at 30 September 2012. They are considered to be accurate at the
time of writing, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. They may be subject to change without reference or notification to you. The views contained herein are
not to be taken as an advice or recommendation to buy or sell any investment and the material should not be relied upon as containing sufficient information to support an investment decision. It should be noted that
the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and
yield may not be a reliable guide to future performance. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide. This communication may be
issued by the following entities: in the United Kingdom by JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Limited; in other EU jurisdictions by JPMorgan Asset Management (Europe) S.à r.l.; in Switzerland by J.P. Morgan (Suisse) SA;
in Hong Kong by JF Asset Management Limited, or JPMorgan Funds (Asia) Limited, or JPMorgan Asset Management Real Assets (Asia) Limited; in India by JPMorgan Asset Management India Private Limited; in Singapore
by JPMorgan Asset Management (Singapore) Limited; in Australia by JPMorgan Asset Management (Australia) Limited; in Brazil by Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.; in Canada by JPMorgan Asset Management (Canada) Inc., and in
the United States by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc., JPMorgan Distribution Services Inc., and J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments, Inc. member FINRA/ SIPC.
The Broker INSIDE THIS ISSUE - Warning: Not taking Financial Advice can seriously damage your Wealth - Brokers Ireland
The BROKER

Chairman’s Report
                Dear fellow Brokers                                               them from banks and other tied channels and gives them
                I hope the Christmas season finds you in good cheer.              a real sense of professional identity.
                There are signs of economic stabilisation and, dare I say it,         The second major part of the project is about
                growth; but like many of you I am still awaiting the ‘trickle     strengthening and enhancing the Financial Broker
                down effect’.                                                     community itself. You will have noticed a series of technical
                    Still we must look forward with hope to 2014 and              or best practice documents issued over the last number of
                beyond. You may have heard me say at many PIBA                    months (ten at the time of writing with more to come).
LIAM CARBERRY
                seminars that as self-employed business people, we must           This is research aimed at giving you, the Financial Broker,
PIBA Chairman
                always take cognisance of change. The ‘Great Recession’           the knowledge and ability to meet the challenges that lie
                has accelerated the pace of change in many industries             ahead. They are a mix of advisory documents — defining
                and professions and it would be foolish to believe we will        best practice for advice — and business documents for
                escape this.                                                      the general running of your firm. When completed, these
                    That’s why PIBA is investing so much time and energy          will give a roadmap for all Financial Brokers to benchmark
                in the Financial Broker project. On the one hand this project     their business in different areas. They are not regulatory
                is about branding — to create a common identity for our           documents but are a real resource designed to support
                profession that we can use to communicate the benefits            you. The documents are located in the resource centre
                we deliver to our clients (see CEO article on page 5 for the      of the PIBA website and if you haven’t downloaded and
                evidence that financial advice delivers life changing benefits    read these, I would urge you to do so. The work you do for
                to consumers). Remember, 50% of consumers don’t use               clients is vital so it is important that we continuously invest
                Financial Brokers and this is down to lack of awareness about     in ourselves and our firms to ensure that Financial Brokers
                us, lack of understanding of the profession and how it is         survive and thrive into the future.
                regulated, and lack of access (how to find a Financial Broker).       At this Christmas time, I would like to thank our CEO
                These are all very correctible problems if we have a common       and staff for all their hard work and dedication during the
                platform to get messages across to the general public, and        year. The members of the Board (main committee) and
                that is what we are seeking to do with the Financial Broker       sub-committees give their time on a voluntary basis and
                project. If you haven’t already done so, I would urge you all     are to be commended for their contribution. I would also
                (subject to the 75% fair analysis rule) to adopt the Financial    like to thank the insurers and providers for their support of
                Broker title in your name, headed paper, description of           PIBA and its activities in 2013.
                your firm, LinkedIn profile, etc. The more we all do this, the        Finally, a special word of thanks goes to you, our
                stronger will be our brand with the public at large.              members, for your continued membership and support in
                    Indeed it is heartening to see more and more Brokers          these still difficult times. I wish you and your families a very
                adopting the Financial Broker term, and I would also like to      happy and peaceful Christmas and a (more) prosperous
                thank life companies and other providers who support the          New Year.
                term in their advertising. There is a strong belief amongst                                                       Liam Carberry
                members that the term Financial Broker differentiates                                                            PIBA Chairman

                                                                                                                             Spring 2013
                                                                                                                             Winter 2012        1
The Broker INSIDE THIS ISSUE - Warning: Not taking Financial Advice can seriously damage your Wealth - Brokers Ireland
Thanks for all your
                                                            support in 2013

                                                                Merry Christmas
                                                                to you and yours.

                                                                       Your No.1 Supporter
Irish ife Assurance plc is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland.
The Broker INSIDE THIS ISSUE - Warning: Not taking Financial Advice can seriously damage your Wealth - Brokers Ireland
The BROKER

Editorial
                    Last quarter I mentioned that house prices were on the           economy roughly 60% to 80% of activity consists of
                    rise again and that the news was less gloomy. Things have        consumption. A decline in our perversely high savings
                    moved rapidly on! This quarter the media is buzzing with         rate will be a boon to the economy. Whilst remaining
                    talk of a new housing bubble. House prices in Dublin are         utterly non-party political about this, policy makers must
                    up over 15% year on year and the rest of the country is          be congratulated on seeing the bigger picture. Perversely,
                    up over 6%. Is this a cause for concern? Of course not:          I believe that the changes made will be beneficial for
                    look at where we came from. If you study trends in house         us in that, firstly, a strengthening economy will be good
DONAL MILMO-PENNY   prices over the last number of decades you will seldom           for our clients. Secondly, and at a micro level, pensions
Editor
                    see a smooth flight path: the gains are made in fits and         are now relatively more attractive given the increase in
                    starts and oftentimes so are the losses. I’ll take this year’s   DIRT on savings. I’m not arguing for a further increase
                    progress as a positive: it lifts a certain constituency out of   in DIRT and similar taxes: we are now surely at the upper
                    negative equity, allowing them to move on if they want           practical limits before the money starts heading under
                    or need to. That’s good for the economy. This month the          the mattresses.
                    Central Bank reported the first fall in the number of those
                    in mortgage arrears. The overhang in supply of housing           Any further diminution in the reasons for contributing
                    in Dublin has long since cleared; indeed there is now            to a pension would be long term public policy madness.
                    serious constraint on the supply side. Outside of Dublin         The state needs to encourage greater private provision
                    the number of vacant properties in the infamous ghost            to reduce the state dependence of our aging citizens.
                    estates is decreasing and plans are afoot to clear the           Politicians need to understand that to be successful in
                    worst folly of that ilk. I see none of this as a cause for       doing so they need to create a policy environment that
                    concern: it’s simply the market normalising and recovery         will encourage activity leading to these ends. Much in the
                    taking place. If you had had the cahoonas and more               way they have created a consumption bias through the
                    importantly the cash to speculate in property over the last      last Budget, they need to create a policy environment that
                    number of years you could now be sitting pretty.                 will lead to increased coverage. Industry will deliver the
                                                                                     mechanisms, the structures and ultimately the outcome.
                    In my own practice I see a number of very positive things.
                    I’ve seen new money going into pensions in place of fear         So, I’m sitting here at my desk this morning tapping this
                    and cash hoarding. I’ve seen new life insurance policies         out in eager anticipation of the LIA’s annual lunch. I’m
                    put in force for the benefit of people’s families in place of    looking forward to having a laugh, a drink and a chat
                    questions about cancellations to save cash. And business         with some of the friends I have made in this business.
                    is again up. This reeks of substantive recovery.                 It’s the last Friday of November and the holiday season
                                                                                     is looming large so I would like to take this opportunity
                    The Budget, whilst as ever imperfect, has looked to              to wish you and yours a very happy Christmas and all the
                    create a bias toward consumption. In a typical developed         very best for the year ahead.

                                                                                                                            Spring 2013
                                                                                                                            Winter 2012      3
The Broker INSIDE THIS ISSUE - Warning: Not taking Financial Advice can seriously damage your Wealth - Brokers Ireland
The BROKER

                                                           WA R N I N G
                                                in g  F in a n c ia l Advice
                                        Not tak                d  a mage
                                          can  s e r io u s ly
                                                 your Wealth

                    There is a growing body of evidence from around the world         key results of the study showed:
                    about the positive impact financial advice has on the lives       • Financial advice had a strong impact on the savings rate
                    of consumers.                                                       of individuals (estimated to be $1,725 more per year per
                                                                                        advised client between 2005 and 2008).
                    Canada
                                                                                      • Advised clients were at least four times more likely to
                    CIRANO Study, July 2012: Econometric Models on the
                                                                                        hold insurance products (life, TPD, income protection).
                    Value of Advice of a Financial Advisor
                    This was a formal econometric study involving over 3,500          Quoting 2007 research, the report states that financial
DIARMUID KELLY      data subjects. Econometrics allows the study to isolate out       advice is associated with:
Chief Executive     socio-economic, demographic and other factors impacting           • More appropriate asset selection
PIBA                on wealth and focus on the impact of financial advice.
                                                                                      • Greater peace of mind
                       The study surveyed the academic literature on the
                    value of advice. This found that individuals had cognitive        • Greater control of finances
                    heuristics and biases when it comes to investments                • Improving the prospect of a more comfortable
                    (procrastination, over confidence, anchoring, loss aversion,        retirement
                    mental accounting, herding). It found that financial advice       • Helping avoid bad investments
                    brings greater goal setting rationality and discipline to
                                                                                      • Making it easier to follow a budget
                    the investment decision-making process, noting also that
                    planning is a strong predictor of wealth.                         • Creating and aiding the ability to save.
                       The study found clear evidence of the impact of financial      Quoting a 2008 study, the report says that advised clients
                    advice on wealth when adjusted for income, starting wealth        strongly valued the professional advice received, with 80%
                    and other factors. This impact was greater the longer the         agreeing that their advisor has given them greater:
                    consumer had received financial advice:
                                                                                      • Understanding of finances
                    Length of time receiving financial advice   Wealth increased by
                                                                                      • Knowledge and education about their investment
                                      4-6 years                        58%              options
                                     7-14 years                        99%
                                                                                      • Confidence that they will achieve their lifestyle goals
                                     15 years +                       173%
                                                                                      • Confidence that they are prepared for retirement.
                    The sources of this greater wealth were higher savings rates,
                    better asset allocation (more non cash) and greater use of        UK
                    tax advantaged (pension) savings.                                 Unbiased.co.uk / Standard Life, 2012: The Value of
                        The advised community had greater confidence in               Financial Advice Report
                    having sufficient funds for retirement over the non-advised       A survey was conducted of 1,044 adults who had used an
                    community. There was also a clear positive attitude to            IFA (Independent Financial Advisor) and 1,219 adults who
                    financial advisors from those using their services: “....once     were not advised.
                    a person is convinced to retain the services of a financial          The survey found that financial advice increased
                    advisor, there is a strong probability that he or she will be     consumer understanding of the need for more complex
                    happy with that situation on numerous accounts.”                  products and increased the uptake of products that may be
                                                                                      overlooked such as life insurance.
                    Australia
                                                                                         Despite having similar incomes, advised clients
                    KPMG Econtech Study, January 2011: Value Proposition              compared to their non advised counterparts:
                    of Financial Advisory Networks – Update and Extension
                    Regression (econometric) analysis was performed on data           • Had greater coverage of life, pension and investment
                    subjects supplied by the networks. Controlling for other            products
                    factors such as wealth, age, employment and income, the           • Had double the amount in their pension funds

4        Issue 43
The Broker INSIDE THIS ISSUE - Warning: Not taking Financial Advice can seriously damage your Wealth - Brokers Ireland
The BROKER

                            • Put 33% more into their pensions                            • Were more than twice as likely to have a pension
                            • Saved for longer and contributed more to their savings      • Were more financially protected
                              plans, leading to investment values twice the value of      • Were more financially confident and more confident
                              non advised consumers.                                        about their financial future.
                            The survey also found that advised clients had a greater                       Percentage of people holding financial products
                            understanding of their personal finances and more                                        Have used            Have not used
                            confidence in their financial product choices.                                       a Financial Broker    a Financial Broker
                               Looking at the coverage of more sophisticated financial
                                                                                          Life assurance               57%                    27%
                            products, the survey reported the following percentages of
                                                                                          Pension                      56%                    30%
                            people who had the listed products:
                                                                                          Critical Illness cover       25%                    10%
                                                             Advised      Non Advised     Income protection            11%                     2%
                            Life insurance                    51%              35%
                                                                                          Comparing the advised and non-advised sectors, the
                            Private pensions                  39%              21%
                                                                                          average pension fund size was 53% higher, but 75% higher
                            Investment ISAs                   38%              19%
                                                                                          for those taking annual financial advice. This latter group
                            Investments                       30%              16%
                                                                                          with annual financial advice also displayed the highest level
                            Critical illness cover            18%               7%
                                                                                          of financial confidence.
                            Income protection                  9%               3%
                                                                                              Consumers are not ultra rational agents efficiently
                                                                                          allocating resources over time. They don’t systematically
                            Ireland
                                                                                          plan their personal finances, giving retirement years the
                            PIBA / Standard Life, September 2013: The Value of Advice
                                                                                          same priority as the here and now. The research clearly
                            For the first time in Ireland PIBA and Standard Life
                                                                                          shows the value Financial Brokers bring to their clients
                            commissioned empirical evidence on the value of Financial
                                                                                          through higher savings rates, more tax efficient savings
                            Broker advice. 1,001 adults were surveyed by Research Plus.
                                                                                          (pensions), more allocation to non cash investments and
                               The results were broadly consistent with international
                                                                                          greater financial protection. What’s more your consumers
                            studies.
                                                                                          are financially more confident and highly value your
                               Consumers who had taken professional financial advice:
                                                                                          services. We just have to get more consumers to sample
                            • Had nearly double the savings and investments of those      your services!
                              who didn’t                                                      Happy Christmas to all PIBA members.

Industry Round-Up                                                                                                                                 [1]
         CFP® Certification Ceremony
FPSB Ireland held its third certification ceremony
        on Friday the 18th of October 2013. The
 ceremony was incorporated into FPSB Ireland’s
        annual Financial Planning Conference in
                           Citywest Hotel, Dublin.
            Certificates were presented to 78 new
     CFP professionals by Bill Hannan, Chairman
       of FPSB Ireland. This brings the number of
         CFP professionals in Ireland to 226, with
 numbers growing at around 75 per annum. The
international community of CFP professionals is
  fast approaching 150,000, with representation
                         in 24 countries worldwide.
            The conference featured high-profile
  international speakers Deena Katz and Harold
Evensky, who shared their experiences and ideas
   on developing a successful financial planning
                                        business.

                                                     RIGHT

                              Photos of some members
               who received their certificates on the day

                                                                                                                                       Winter 2013       5
The Broker INSIDE THIS ISSUE - Warning: Not taking Financial Advice can seriously damage your Wealth - Brokers Ireland
The BROKER

Industry Round-Up                                                                                                                                                                    [2]

Standard Life wins PIBA Investment                               seeing you again next year with Nicolas; and hopefully       them continue their excellent work over the next three
Excellence Award 2013                                            some sunnier weather too!                                    years through our support.”
Standard Life won the 2013 award for Investment                                                                                   Mick Quinn, President of Lansdowne Football Club,
Excellence at the recent PIBA Annual Excellence                  New Portfolio Funds Area Launched                            added, “Zurich’s sponsorship of the club has been,
Awards.                                                          on the Friends First Investment                              and will continue to be, an incredible boost for all of
    Speaking on winning this award Brendan Barr,                 Centre                                                       our players, and in helping us to encourage the next
Head of Marketing, Standard Life said: “Investment               Friends First have recently launched a new dedicated         generation to take up the sport. Following 24 years
Excellence has been a key area of focus in our business          area for the Magnet and Compass Portfolios on the            of sponsorship, we are so pleased that Zurich has
over the last couple of years. This is a great win for us        Investment Centre. This resource provides a range of         committed to renewing its support of the club and are
and an endorsement of the strength of our investment             information across all eight funds in the portfolios, with   excited to further build on this relationship over the
manager — Standard Life Investments. We would like               access to up-to-date material on assets, performance         coming years.”
to take this opportunity to thank all the PIBA members           and markets.
who completed this survey and helped us to win this                  You will find all the information you need for           SSgA appoints Head of
award.”                                                          your clients on the different portfolios and funds           Intermediaries for Ireland
See pages 18 & 19 for photos of Nigel Dunne, CEO of              within each, along with links to the Online Fund             State Street Global Advisors (SSgA), the asset
Standard Life Ireland and members of the Standard Life           Factsheets, which feature daily pricing. In addition,        management business of State Street Corporation,
Marketing, Sales and Product Development teams accepting         new comprehensive Quarterly Fund Snapshots can be            recently announced the appointment of Graham Fox
the Investment Excellence Award from PIBA.
                                                                 downloaded, which include commentaries and asset             to Head of Intermediaries for Ireland.
                                                                 manager and fund split details; as well as market and            Graham joins SSgA
A morning spin with Standard Life                                strategy performance information.                            from Irish Life Group, where
and Nicolas Roche                                                    The new resource is accessible via the Investment        he was Head of Broker
On a very rainy and stormy day in October over 25                Centre or directly from our websites’ homepages at           Investment Sales for more
Financial Brokers braved the elements for an early               www.friendsfirst.ie and www.brokerfirst.ie.                  than thirteen years, working
morning spin with one of Ireland’s top sports stars,                                                                          within their institutional
Nicolas Roche.                                                   Zurich Insurance renews longest                              and retail divisions. In
    Nicolas is mentor to The Nicolas Roche Performance           running rugby sponsorship with                               his new role as Head of
Team sponsored by Standard Life, which is made up                Lansdowne FC                                                 Intermediaries, Graham will be responsible for
of eight of Ireland’s elite junior riders. They’ve enjoyed       Zurich Insurance recently reaffirmed its commitment to       managing and developing SSgA’s relationships with its
fantastic success over the year, with over 25 wins and           Lansdowne Football Club by renewing its sponsorship          domestic intermediary client base in Ireland, focusing
riders representing Ireland at European and World                of the club for a further three years. Now entering          particularly on SSgA’s strategic partnership with New
Championship events.                                             its 24th year, the sponsorship is one of the longest         Ireland Assurance. He will also be responsible for
    Nicolas took to the roads of Wicklow with a brave            running in Irish rugby.                                      developing new relationships with intermediaries
Broker peloton for a leisurely spin! (Although some                  Maurice Cullen, Chief Marketing Officer, Zurich          operating in Ireland.
may have taken a considerably hilly detour!) Nicolas             Insurance, said, “After almost a quarter of a century of         Commenting on the new appointment, Peter
was in great form, chatting about how he has worked              sponsorship, we are delighted to be able to announce         Wood, head of SSgA, Ireland said, “Graham’s
hard to reach the level of performance he has achieved           our continued support of Lansdowne FC who were               appointment reflects SSgA’s ongoing commitment
this season and his role with the performance team.              last year crowned AIL champions. Lansdowne has               to its intermediary client base and underscores our
    Despite the extreme weather there was a great                played an integral role in developing some of Ireland’s      objective to grow our presence and offering within the
buzz all morning. Standard Life are looking forward to           leading rugby stars, and we look forward to seeing           intermediary channel.”

ABOVE    L-R: Donal Milmo-Penny (SMP Financial Ltd), Gary Morrissey
        (Invesco), Nicolas Roche, Jacob Baldwin and James Finucane (Invesco)
RIGHT   Young Lansdowne FC players Tom Cullen and Tom Darrah with
        Zurich’s Chief Marketing Officer Maurice Cullen at the official                                                                 ABOVE   Friends First Portfolio Funds Area
        sponsorship announcement

6         Issue 43
                36
The Broker INSIDE THIS ISSUE - Warning: Not taking Financial Advice can seriously damage your Wealth - Brokers Ireland
The BROKER

                                                                                                                                                                       [3]

Zurich Life nationwide Broker                                 Friends Supports Cougars                                    Friends First seeks to be a socially responsible
seminars                                                      Friends First is passionate about supporting the         business in everything we do, both commercially
Recently, Zurich Life held nationwide Broker                  local community and is delighted to sponsor the          and in how we impact on Irish society as a whole
seminars to launch significant new developments               newly formed Dublin Cougars — a new senior               and within our local communities. To demonstrate
to the Prisma platform. The seminars were                     men’s Division 2 basketball team based in the            how we deliver on our social responsibility aims,
extremely successful, with over 700 Brokers in                Loughlinstown/Cherrywood area.                           we have developed a programme of community
attendance. The nationwide seminar speakers                                                                                                focused activities under the
included Anthony Brennan, Brendan Johnston,                                                                                                heading of ‘Friends in the
Richard Temperley and Ronan O’Neill from Zurich                                                                                            Community’, which uses our
Life, along with Pete Lunn, an economist, author                                                                                           resources to support our local
and former BBC journalist. Pete gave a very                                                                                                community, including local
interesting and interactive talk on behavioural                                                                                            charities, community projects
economics, which according to Brokers’ feedback                                                                                            and schools, both financially
was thoroughly enjoyable and informative.                                                                                                  and through expert assistance.
    A key development to the Prisma platform
is the new Client Dashboard, available online at                                                                                           LEFT

Zurich Life’s Broker Centre. This gives you a single                                                                                       Pictured with the team is Brian
overview of your client’s total holding of policies                                                                                        O’Neill, Strategic Marketing Director,
                                                                                                                                           Friends First
with Zurich Life, extended across retirement,
investment, savings and protection products.
NEW PATHWAY FUNDS
Also launched at the events were the new risk
targeted Pathway Multi-Asset Funds. These funds               Standard Life raise €30,000 for The                      in support of one of their colleagues, whose son
target long-term growth, with asset mixes that can            Laura Brennan Charitable Trust                           benefits from the work of the trust. They’ve raised
deliver volatility and returns appropriate to your            The 2013 charity partner voted for by Standard Life      €30,000 so far through lots of fun activities like
client’s chosen risk profile. Pathway has five funds,         employees is the Laura Brennan Charitable Trust.         bake sales, charity runs and cycles, adventure
which are designed to match the ESMA* risk ratings                Established in 2008 by Pat and Nuala Brennan,        races, fancy dress and a very creative ‘Ton of Cash’
2 through to 6, and they enable your client’s risk            the trust’s purpose is to raise much needed funds        campaign: they’re aiming to collect a physical ton
profile to be matched to one of the five funds.               to support children up to the age of 18 years who        of cash with your unwanted coins!
* (ESMA) European Securities and Markets Authority            suffer from serious, life-threatening or life-limiting       Nigel Dunne, CEO of Standard Life Ireland said
                                                              illnesses. It also seeks to ensure that remaining        “This is a great achievement so far for our staff,
                                                              family members, brothers and sisters are not             especially as we are an office of approximately
                                                              forgotten throughout the duration of such                200 people. These funds are going to a fantastic
BELOW LEFT
                                                              illnesses. Pat and Nuala set up this worthy charity      organisation which is making a huge difference
Anthony Brennan, CEO; David O’Dowd, Commercial
                                                              in memory of their daughter Laura, who passed            in many people’s lives”.
Director; Elaine Fitzpatrick, Broker Marketing Manager (all
Zurich Life); Diarmuid Kelly (CEO, PIBA)                      away following a sudden illness. She was just 16             Standard Life are supporting The Laura
BELOW RIGHT
                                                              years old and a beautiful, intelligent, talented and     Brennan Charitable Trust until March 2014. You
Nigel Dunne, CEO of Standard Life Ireland, presents Anna,     caring young lady.                                       can contact them at (01) 639 7300 if you have
Nuala and Pat Brennan with a cheque for €30,000                   Standard Life employees chose this charity           unwanted coins!

                                                                                                                                                        Spring 2013
                                                                                                                                                        Winter 2012            7
The Broker INSIDE THIS ISSUE - Warning: Not taking Financial Advice can seriously damage your Wealth - Brokers Ireland
Innovative                     Trustworthy                 Empathy

Travelling towards a
brighter future together.
As a company that distributes solely through financial advisers and brokers, Friends First has been at
the forefront in assisting those of you who are committed to developing and improving your financial
advisory business. “Friends for Life” reflects not only how our brand has evolved but also our products,
supporting services and approach to doing business. We are doing business in a different way and
supporting you in transforming and developing your business. We believe that the wide range of our
support for brokers is a clear demonstration of Friends First’s strong commitment to working and
supporting you in developing value in your business.

  >      Education                           >                                                     >       Communications
                                                     Products & Services
         & Technical Support                                                                               & Supports

 • “The Future of Financial Services”        • New spread commission options                     • Regular Keeping In Touch broker
   symposiums                                  across pension & protection products                newsletter
 • Nationwide broker “Business               • Introduction of 14 new funds on the               • Improved Online Service Centre and
   Transformation” workshops                   pensions & investments platform                     introduction of Customer newsletter
 • New Foresight, Broker Transformation      • 5 new ready-made portfolios within                • New Protection Centre for brokers
   programme                                   the Magnet and new Compass range
 • Pensions & Investment product               along with new portfolio area online              • Enhanced Investment Centre for
   training                                                                                        brokers and consumers
                                             • Simplification and alignment of
 • Fund Manager presentations                  protection, pension and funds                     • Continuous additions to CPD
                                               literature and sales information to                 programme on www.brokerfirst.ie
 • Clive Slattery seminars                     make it easier to use for you and your
 • Jim Power Economic Outlook                  clients                                           • Over 30 articles published in the media
                                                                                                   on industry and product issues
 • Protection sales training                 • Online developments including
                                               additional Online CPD and Fund
 • Suite of CPD training modules               Factsheets
                                             • Ongoing consumer research across
                                               our product range to provide
                                               opportunities for sales and service
                                               enhancements

Quite simply we are
Friends for life.
For more information on any of the above
please contact your Friends First Account Manager.

www.brokerfirst.ie                                         Friends First Life Assurance Company Limited is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland.
The BROKER

                        Friends First
                        Creating the Future for Brokers
                        Introduction                                                   The four modules are as follows:
                        Friends First distributes solely through financial advisers    1. Building an Effective Business Strategy and Plan.
                        and Brokers and has been at the forefront in assisting         2. Producing an Effective Client Proposition and Segmentation
                        those Brokers who are committed to developing and                 Strategy.
                        improving their financial advisory business.
                                                                                       3. Developing a Sustainable Income Model and Value
                            Over the last number of years we have been offering
                                                                                          Proposition.
                        tangible support to Financial Brokers by outlining the basic
                        steps required to change and improve a financial advisory      4. Creating a Robust Client Focused Marketing Plan.
JOHN CORR               business. Coupled with this through various events, we have    Each module is delivered by myself and an independent
Commercial Transition   brought together the expertise and international experience    facilitator. In addition, subject matter experts deliver
Director                of a number of leading industry practitioners, who provided    material for each module. This is done in a highly
Friends First           practical insights into how to manage the change process       participative manner.
                        to become a successful financial advisory business.               Each module is delivered at a one-day workshop at four
                            While working with those committed to change we            separate locations countrywide. Participants are tasked with
                        have listened to their feedback and what they need by          completing preparatory work before and further work after
                        way of practical assistance to help them to transform          each module. The programme will be delivered over a six-
                        their advisory business. Based on their feedback, we have      month period enabling participants to fully assimilate and
                        developed the Foresight Programme, a unique Broker             implement the material from each module.
                        business transition programme.
                                                                                       The Benefits of Foresight
                        What is Foresight?                                             1. Clarity: Through a three-year business plan, imple-
                        • The Foresight Programme is a practical management               ment best practice in managing a small business to
                          and development programme designed for life Brokers             maximise commercial opportunities.
                          to provide them with the capability to complete a            2. Competence: Tools, processes and techniques that
                          transformation (full/partial) of their business to a            are available to you to help complete the change.
                          financial advisory model focused on developing a
                                                                                       3. Confidence: Know that you are focusing on the
                          significant proportion of recurring income from advice
                                                                                          correct priorities, maximising your time and resources.
                          and product sales.
                                                                                       4. Control: Make the decision to take better control of
                        • It is specifically for business owners, or directors of
                                                                                          your business, what it’s about, where it’s going and
                          financial advisory businesses and life Brokerages who
                                                                                          how it’s going to get there.
                          have demonstrated a strong interest in completing this
                          type of business transformation.                             The programme is delivered through a professional
                                                                                       learning environment that is extremely practical and
                        What are the objectives of Foresight?                          completely relevant to the financial advisory business.
                                                                                       The content is topical and focused on best practice
                        • The objective is to provide participants with the tools
                                                                                       business management, making it engaging for all
                          and processes to implement a three-year transformation
                                                                                       participants. We challenge you to stand back from your
                          for their business.
                                                                                       business and assess its strengths and gaps.
                        • By completing this they can attract and retain the              Module 1 has just been completed and we are fast
                          right clients, achieve greater security over their           approaching Module 2. Feedback from participants has
                          income and develop enhanced and long-term value in           been very positive.
                          their business.                                                 The Foresight Programme is a unique and market
                        • Those Financial Brokers who complete the programme           leading programme. It is one of the most important Broker
                          will receive a detailed blueprint on how to change           developments and supports that Friends First is bringing
                          their business to one that will deliver what they and        to the market in 2013 and 2014, and it represents a
                          their clients want.                                          significant investment in our sole distribution channel
                                                                                       over this period.
                        What is in the programme and how is it delivered?                 I have thoroughly enjoyed working with the
                        Over the last year in my role as Commercial Transition         participating Financial Brokers on the programme to
                        Director I have been developing the programme which            date and look forward to helping them transition their
                        comprises four separate modules focused on the critical        businesses to be relevant and sustainable over the longer
                        parts of a Financial Broker’s business.                        term and into the future.

                                                                                                                                 Winter 2013      9
The BROKER

                       To Index or not to Index,
                       That is the Question
                       The size of the industry dedicated to managing money              control or reduce business risk. The fund management
                       is huge. Millions of people are employed in an industry           industry’s bad name is thoroughly deserved.
                       trying to exploit market inefficiencies that many people              As an investor your starting point should be to own
                       argue don’t exist.                                                more of the assets that you expect will deliver the best
                           Necessarily, proponents of active management                  returns. As an investor in passive funds tracking market-cap
                       believe that financial markets are inefficient. That’s not        weighted indices, stocks that have appreciated are ‘buys’
                       to say that the market isn’t sometimes efficient: in fact         and become a bigger weight in the index, and stocks that
                       it’s possible that parts of the market are mostly efficient.      have depreciated are ‘sells’ and become smaller weights.
GARY CONNOLLY          The Efficient Markets Hypothesis remains dominant in              Let’s consider this in practice. If you invest passively in the
Principal              terms of its influence on financial market theory, but its        index you will end up owning twice as much in an asset
iCubed                 principles have been rounded upon and heavily criticised          whose price has recently doubled in value. To a proponent
                       in the last few years. My own view is that markets are            of value investing, this is a perversion of investment
                       not efficient in the EMH sense. Therefore I do believe            strategy. It exposes you to permanency of a trend, rather
                       that active management has a part to play in portfolio            than anticipation of future change. At the risk of using
                       management.                                                       some hindsight bias, would you have invested 40% of your
                           However, there is a problem with simple inductive             assets in Japan in 1989, 30% in ‘TMT’ in 2000, or 25% of
                       reasoning. My dog has four legs. My cat has four                  your portfolio in financials in mid-2007?
                       legs. Ergo my dog is a cat. The simple rejection of                   A similar, arguably more perverse consequence exists
                       market efficiency does not make the case for active               with respect to passive tracking on bond indices. The reason
                       management. The debate about active and passive fund              is simple. If you buy debt in proportion to who has issued
                       management is a popular one. The standard case put                the most debt, you will end up with the greatest exposure
                       forward by proponents of passive management can be                to the riskiest and most indebted issuers. A passive investor
                       summarised as follows:                                            in European Government bonds is allocating over 20% to
                                                                                         Italian debt currently. Is this desirable?
                       • Passive guarantees you index performance less fees,
                                                                                             So what is the appropriate investment conclusion to
                         which for the most part are significantly lower than
                                                                                         all of this? Passive investment of market capitalisation
                         active fees.
                                                                                         weighted indices is a naive form of money management.
                       • Active managers have shown a collective inability to            The use of passive investment vehicles that track indices
                         outperform consistently, so why bother trying to pick the       constructed using value criteria rather than indices that
                         skilful managers?                                               assign weights by reference to market capitalisation
                           These issues are regularly debated, so there is no merit      makes a lot more sense.
                       in my expanding on them here. It’s difficult to argue with            Having surveyed extensive academic evidence on the
                       these points.                                                     subject of the relationship between investment approach
                           You can believe that markets are inefficient all you          and returns there is a compelling amount of evidence that
                       like, but these inefficiencies are constantly changing,           value investing delivers superior returns.
                       with some being arbitraged away only to be replaced by                In recognition of the persistence of the value premium
                       new inefficiencies. Much of what passes for brilliance in         and the genuine potential for active managers that are
                       investing is actually a combination of luck and the ebb           focused on the appropriate risks of adding value, you
                       and flow of style. Trying to separate the lucky managers          should consider investing in value funds.
                       from the genuinely skilful is extremely difficult.                    The conclusion that markets are not efficient has many
                           But it would be misguided to conclude that passive            more potentially important investment implications,
                       management is the answer. This is again a very simplistic         which are unfortunately beyond the scope of this short
                       form of inductive reasoning.                                      missive. But if you are to take anything away, the next
                           A statistic often cited by efficient marketers as objective   time you are in the business section of a bookshop,
                       proof confirming market efficiency is that around 80% of          ignore the books on investment theory and buy a book on
                       active managers don’t outperform. This statistic is only          behavioural finance.
                       shocking in so far as it surprises so many people. Genuinely
                       active managers are to the fund management profession
                       what clean riders are to professional cycling: in a significant   Gary Connolly is principal of iCubed, an investment training,
                       minority. Of course so many fail at the job, the majority         research and consulting firm working with financial advisers.
                       aren’t even trying. Most ‘actively’ managed portfolios are        www.icubed.ie.
                       engineered to look like their benchmarks, in an effort to         He can be contacted at gary@icubed.ie.

10          Issue 43
❅                                          ❄
Wishing you a
peaceful Christmas and
                                                                           ❆                                        ❄
prosperous 2014.

                                                                       ❄
❆                                                                                                ❄
From everyone at New Ireland.
New Ireland Assurance Company plc is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. A member of Bank of Ireland Group.
The BROKER

                   Engage your Clients for Strong
                   Long-term Relationships
                   The world of marketing for Financial Brokers is evolving in
                   response to changing consumer needs. Traditional marketing
                   methods such as advertising, public relations, seminars, and
                   direct marketing are no longer enough on their own. Yes they
                   still have a place, but Financial Brokers today also need to focus
                   on engaging their clients to build durable, valuable relationships     developing a consistent stream of quality content for their
                   that will help them retain their clients forever.                      repeating marketing activities. This arises with websites,
                        The days of just selling are over! As Larry Weber, author of      newsletters, blogs and other social media activities. Also, fresh
EAMONN TWOMEY      Marketing to the Social Web said,                                      content is a core requirement for a successful Search Engine
StepChange                                                                                Optimisation (SEO) strategy. We’ve all seen the first issue of
                      “As you’ve noticed people don’t want to be sold to.
                      What people do want is news and information about                   a newsletter that is really very impressive but that is just not
                      the things they care about.”                                        followed up by future editions. Often this is as a result of the
                                                                                          author struggling for ideas for content for the subsequent
                   And so we’ve seen the growth of inbound (or content) marketing,
                                                                                          issues.
                   which is based on the idea of earning the attention of prospects
                                                                                               I suggest that you capture the titles and key points of your
                   and customers, rather than simply selling to them. The aim is no
                                                                                          first five or six editions before you start the activity at all. This will
                   longer to talk ‘at’ your customers. Now it’s important to engage
                                                                                          help you to avoid ‘writer’s block’ when you sit down to pen the
                   customers, primarily by producing ‘content’ (often online) that
                                                                                          future editions of your communication.
                   customers value. And the good news is that Financial Brokers are
                                                                                               Finally, put effort into ensuring the quality of your writing. Put
                   in the perfect position to really leverage the opportunities offered
                                                                                          the effort into writing engaging content, but equally make sure
                   by inbound marketing. And the other bit of good news is that it
                                                                                          your grammar and spelling are 100% accurate. Otherwise, get
                   doesn’t cost the earth. In fact, according to Guy Kawasaki, the
                                                                                          someone to do it for you.
                   former Chief Evangelist at Apple (how’s that for an exotic title!),
                      “If you have more money than brains, you should focus               Use the analytics available to you
                      on outbound marketing. If you’ve more brains than                   One of the biggest advantages of the online marketing tools
                      money, you should focus on inbound marketing.”                      that are generally used for consumer engagement is the
                   So, the thing to be learnt from these quotes for Financial Brokers     tremendous analytics that are available to you. Gone are the
                   is that the days of solely running in sales mode are now over. Your    days of Mr. Wannamaker: “I know I’m getting value from half of
                   marketing efforts also need to look to engage your prospects,          my marketing budget, I’m just not sure which half.”
                   existing customers and other contacts to earn you their ear as             Now you can gain clarity of the success or otherwise of your
                   someone to be listened to. If they view you as a financial expert,     activities. You can see how many people are engaging with your
                   they are then more likely to consult you as their own financial        content, the type of content that they particularly value and
                   advice needs emerge.                                                   what their particular ‘hot topics’ are. You can see who ‘likes’ your
                                                                                          content and who comments on it and indeed shares it with their
                   Build your network (and your data) relentlessly                        own network.
                   Your network consists of your clients and potential clients. These         Google Analytics and indeed the information available
                   are the people that you want to engage, both groups in equal           within the social media platforms provide you with invaluable
                   measure. Building routes to stay in touch with them is critical        information.
                   to your success. Every opportunity needs to be taken to widen              With email marketing, you get even richer information as you
                   this circle, using social media tools to widen your net, as well       get all of the above benefits, but at an individual subscriber level.
                   as leveraging all the offline connections that you build. As you       So you can see for each of your contacts what the hot topics for
                   expand your circle of contacts, you need to build your contact         them are.
                   data: this will primarily consist of email addresses and social            The world of marketing for Financial Brokers is changing.
                   media connections.                                                     Selling still sits at the heart of what you do. However now if you
                       Remember that your data is the enabler of your marketing           want to increase the sales opportunities, engaging your clients
                   efforts. Without relevant data, you are restricted in the activities   and prospects needs to become a core marketing activity.
                   that you can carry out, and unable to measure the success of
                   activities.
                                                                                          StepChange assists Financial Brokers in the development
                   Build a structured approach to content                                 and delivery of their business strategy, growth and marketing
                   Another challenge that many Financial Brokers (who have                plans.
                   bought into the merits of inbound marketing) face is                   www.stepchange.ie

12      Issue 43
The BROKER

                    Solvency II for Financial Brokers
                    What are the key issues facing you as a Financial Broker today?                  increasing the universe of assets that can be held (though the
                    Solvency II may not be high on your list. I would guess that local               ‘Prudent Person Principle’ may limit any such increase).
                    regulatory changes are more pressing than wider European changes.             • Solvency II rewards diversification of risk. This might result in
                    IMD II, PRIPs and MIFID II may grab your attention but Solvency II is           the consolidation of insurers. It may also encourage some
                    less likely to get a look in. Part of the reason for this may be Solvency       insurers to broaden their product range, or allow insurers with
                    II’s (self-inflicted) credibility problems. The process has dragged on for      broader product ranges to offer cheaper prices. For example,
                    so long, with so many missed deadlines, that it has become harder for           a term assurance may be cheaper (or more profitable) from
                    people to maintain interest in it unless they are directly affected.            a company selling a range of products compared with one
KEVIN MANNING            This has now changed. After years of lobbying, negotiating and             specialising in protection products.
Senior Consultant   compromising we finally have agreement on all the substantive issues
                                                                                                  • It is likely that insurers will revisit their reinsurance
                    of Solvency II, and will have a 1st of January 2016 implementation
Milliman                                                                                            arrangements in the light of Solvency II, with potential
                    date. Moreover, interim measures mean that some aspects of the
                                                                                                    implications for retail products.
                    Solvency II regime will come into effect on the 1st of January 2014.
                                                                                                  • Currently lapses hurt insurers economically, but the impact
                    Overview of Solvency II                                                         from a solvency point of view is lower. Under Solvency II lapses
                    All of this won’t mean much to you if Solvency II just affects the              will also hurt insurers from a solvency point of view. Financial
                    accountants and actuaries. What, if anything, will it mean for Financial        Brokers may think insurers are obsessed with persistency now,
                    Brokers? To answer this we need to step back from the detail to look at         but wait until Solvency II comes in!
                    what Solvency II is trying to achieve.                                        • Solvency II gives a more consistent pan-European framework.
                        Under Solvency II the capital that insurers must hold should be             Over time this may lead to more insurers selling cross-border
                    linked closely to the level of risk they face. Insurers should benefit from     into Ireland through branches or freedom of services. We
                    good risk management practices, and there should be transparent                 may have fewer Irish insurers operating here and more pan-
                    disclosures that allow third parties (like Financial Brokers) to                European insurers.
                    understand and compare the risks that insurers face and their capacity        • Each insurer will have a distribution policy and will start to look
                    to withstand those risks. The big picture is that this should lead to           more closely at the distributors they work with. With a focus
                    better run insurers, greater awareness of risk, better risk mitigation and      on managing risk, they may start to develop standards that
                    less chance of insurers failing.                                                distributors must meet if they are to work with the company.
                    Implications for Financial Brokers                                              What are the risks for insurers of doing business with you?
                                                                                                    How good are your own systems and controls?
                    Arguably each of the three pillars of Solvency II (see diagram)
                    will have implications for Financial Brokers. It is difficult in a            • Solvency II is likely to have a direct impact on Brokers
                    short article to give a full flavour of these implications, but here            (particularly general insurance Brokers) who are involved more
                    are some of the key areas of interest:                                          closely in claims-handling or underwriting roles for insurers
                                                                                                    and may fall under detailed outsourcing requirements.
                    • Solvency II is better at recognising risk. Riskier products (from
                      an insurer’s perspective) will require higher capital. This may             • There will be considerably more information available to
                      reduce the availability of some products, or increase their cost              Financial Brokers (and others). It will give greater insight
                      (particularly products with investment guarantees). Solvency                  into the relative riskiness of different insurers and will be
                      II may therefore have implications for the availability and                   considerably more comparable than current information. This
                      cost of products with investment guarantees provided by the                   is an opportunity and a challenge. Are you ready to analyse
                      insurer, including with-profits products.                                     this information and advise your clients appropriately?
                    • We expect to see further product innovation for low-risk                    Key message
                      customers, such as funds that manage volatility or provide                  In my view, the key message to take from Solvency II is that it should
                      greater downside protection without necessarily providing                   strengthen the industry as a whole. It should lead to better-run
                      hard guarantees.                                                            insurers — more aware of risk and better able to withstand risks.
                    • Under Solvency II the limits on assets that can be held in unit-            Ultimately it should be good news for any of us with an interest in a
                      linked funds will be less prescriptive than at present, potentially         strong and viable insurance industry.

                             MEASUREMENT OF ASSETS                              SUPERVISORY REVIEW PROCESS                             MARKET DISCIPLINE
                             LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL
                     • Eligible capital                                   • Governance framework                             • Public disclosure
                     • Technical provisions                               • Internal control                                 • Supervisory reporting
                     • Capital requirements                               • Risk management
                     • Asset & liability valuation                        • ORSA

                                    PILLAR 1                                              PILLAR 2                                         PILLAR 3

                                                                      SOLVENCY II FOLLOWS A THREE-PILLAR STRUCTURE
                                     Pillar 1 focuses on numbers, Pillar 2 focuses on governance and processes and Pillar 3 focuses on transparency

                                                                                                                                                Winter 2013          13
NOW ENROLLING January Start

                                                                                      INFO Visit: www.ncirl.ie
                                                                                           Call: 1850 221 721

          If you have to meet MCC, meet NCI.
          If you thought there was only one option in retail financial services education, think again. National College
          of Ireland offers two new programmes designed to meet the Central Bank Minimum Competency Code and a
          Certificate in Personal Insolvency Practice. Our new programmes combine the highest academic standards with
          real-world experience and international accreditation. Whether you’re a prospective student or an institutional
          buyer, our Certificate and Diploma in Personal Financial Planning simply give you more.

          • Designed to meet the Central Bank Minimum                                • Includes Law and Regulation, Life Assurance,
            Competency Code.                                                           Savings and Investment, Retirement Benefits,
          • Internationally recognised designation, Personal                           Loans, Applied Financial Planning and more.
            Financial Planner PFP®, from the Institute of                            • Certificate course for those needing to meet MCC
            Canadian Bankers*.                                                         requirements. Holders of existing MCC compliant
          • Programmes at Level 8 on the National                                      qualifications can now upgrade their qualification
            Framework of Qualifications.                                               to a level 8 Diploma.
          • Third-level education provider, with over                                • We are also offering a Certificate in Personal
            six decades of academic excellence.                                        Insolvency Practice. Graduates of this programme
                                                                                       may submit an application for authorisation as a
          • Personal, face-to-face learning in classrooms,                             Personal Insolvency Practitioner.
            combined with tutor mentoring and the latest
            in e-learning.

          Make a better choice:
             • Certificate in Personal                                Diploma in Personal                                 Certificate in Personal
               Financial Planning                                     Financial Planning                                  Insolvency Practice

     NCI CERTIFICATE &                      RETIREMENT
                                                                      PERSONAL      TAXATION                                                         LIFE
                            REAL WORLD LEARNING

                                                                DEBT
GENERAL

                                            BENEFITSLEARNING
                                                      REAL WORLD

                                                                                                                                                    ASSURANCE
                                                                        PERSONAL DEBT RESTRUCTURING
     CERTIFICATE
              DIPLOMA
                                                                                                                        NOW YOU HAVE A CHOICE
                                                                                                PFP            ®
                                                                                &

                                                                                                                        A BETTER
     IN PERSONAL
     INSOLVENCY
                                                                                         MEDIATION
                                                                                  NEGOTIATION

     PRACTICE                              IN PERSONAL
 DIPLOMA
 IN PERSONAL
             FINANCIAL PLANNING
                      FINANCIAL            RESTRUCTURE                                                 CHOICE
                                                      APPLIED

 FINANCIAL PLANNING                       LOANS            PLANNING                              SAVINGS & INVESTMENTS
                                                  National College of Ireland, Mayor Street, IFSC, Dublin 1

             * Graduates of the Certificate and Diploma may apply for the PFP designation with The Institute of Canadian Bankers.
The BROKER

                                 Keep on Running
                                 Everyone loves a good rally, and the steady rise in asset prices         mask underlying opportunities — just because an index looks
                                 since the middle of this year has been very satisfying. However,         expensive it does not mean that there are no longer deals to be
                                 recent client conversations suggest that investors are becoming          had at the sector or company level.
                                 increasingly concerned that equities cannot sustain this                     Central bank policies have driven rates to record lows and
                                 momentum. Many markets have rallied strongly this year and               starved investors of income, forcing many into higher yielding
                                 reached new highs, or at least post-recession highs. However,            equities. The result has been that the more defensive sectors,
                                 this doesn’t mean that investors have missed the equity boat             which typically pay a higher dividend, are now beginning to
                                 and markets cannot continue to move higher. The upward                   look relatively expensive. However, this also means that the
KEVIN COUGHLAN                   momentum in equity markets so far has been supported by the              lower-dividend-paying cyclical sectors have become relatively
Head of Ireland                  view that economic growth is becoming sufficient to underpin             attractive. Cyclical stocks have performed better this year as
J.P. Morgan                      corporate earnings, but not yet strong enough for central banks          the global economic backdrop has improved, and are likely to
Asset Management                 to move away from highly accommodative monetary policy.                  continue to do so as economic momentum builds, particularly in
                                     US earnings continue to beat expectations, with the S&P              developed markets. As in many areas of investing, the devil is in
                                 500 on track for another quarter of record profits at the time of        the detail and each of the cyclical sectors will perform differently
                                 writing. Better than expected profits are being driven by margin         depending on where we are in the economic cycle.
                                 expansion as companies cut costs, but in the long term this is an            For example, consumer discretionary and financial stocks
                                 unsustainable practice, as there is only so much fat that can be         have responded well to the early stages of the economic
                                 cut from the bottom line. Eventually, US labour costs will rise and      recovery, and have had the strongest performance of the cyclical
                                 higher interest rates will squeeze margins. In Europe, meanwhile,        sectors in the MSCI Europe Index so far this year. Households
                                 although fewer companies release quarterly results, earnings             will defer spending on non-essential items when the economic
                                 look to have improved on the last quarter thus far, but the results      prospects look weak, but when the outlook improves, the
                                 are still mixed and revenues weak. However, companies globally           renewed appetite for big-ticket goods such as cars means
                                 should soon begin to benefit from stronger demand, which                 that the consumer discretionary sector outperforms. Similarly,
                                 should translate into high revenues as the global economy                financials usually benefit from increased demand for borrowing.
                                 becomes more synchronised and growth from developed                      Energy and materials sectors may also do well at an early
                                 markets, in particular, begins to strengthen.                            stage in the economic cycle, but recently this has not been
                                     In the meantime, there are concerns that valuations may              the case. The mining sector, in particular, has been hampered
                                 be getting ahead of corporate fundamentals and that markets              by an imbalance in supply and demand that will take time to
                                 are beginning to look expensive. It is true that the forward             correct. Looking ahead, the level of pent-up demand among
                                 price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple on the S&P 500 is near its              consumers means that the consumer discretionary sector will
                                 long-term average, but UK and European equity indices remain             be likely to continue to perform strongly. Longer term, as the
                                 relatively cheap on a forward P/E basis: not only compared to            economic landscape improves, companies will begin to re-tool in
                                 their history, but also compared to the US. Furthermore, markets         anticipation of increasing demand, which should benefit sectors
                                 don’t necessarily sell off as soon as equities look fairly valued, but   such as technology.
                                 can continue to move well past their long-run averages. Using                There is still plenty of opportunity in equities, even as markets
                                 valuation metrics for indices at an aggregate level can also             move towards multi-year highs. However, given that valuations
                                                                                                          are no longer as cheap as they once were, the challenge is
                                                                                                          knowing where to look and how to take advantage of those
    MSCI Europe Index: year to date performance
                                                                                                          sectors that look relatively more attractive and that will benefit
    50                                   Cyclicals                                      Defensives
                                                                                                          from stronger economic growth. Finally, the more stable growth
     %
                                                                                                          picture should also support company earnings by boosting
    40
                                                                                                          revenues, reducing the reliance on margin expansion. Investors
                                                                                                          may take some comfort that the end for equities is not nigh.
    30

    20                                                                                                    Kevin Coughlan, CAIA, is Head of Ireland business at J.P. Morgan
                                                                                                          Asset Management and a client advisor to institutional and fund
    10
                                                                                                          clients. Kevin has 16 years’ industry experience. Before joining J.P.
                                                                                                          Morgan in 2010, he worked with institutional clients at Dexia Asset
                                                                                                          Management and Bank of Ireland Asset Management. Before that,
     0
                                                                                                          he was a business development manager at Montgomery Oppenheim
                                                                                                          and an investment marketing manager at Standard Life Investments.
                                                                                                          Kevin holds a Bachelor of Commerce from the University College Cork,
    Source: MSCI, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Total returns through 29 October 2013.           a Postgraduate Diploma in Legal Studies from Dublin Institute of
                                                                                                          Technology and is a CAIA Charter Holder.

                                                                                                                                                        Winter 2013         15
You can also read