The Bull Market Continues - Kean Chan Manager, Macro Research, iFAST Singapore 4 May 2019 - Fundsupermart.com
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The Bull Market Continues Kean Chan Manager, Macro Research, iFAST Singapore 4 May 2019
In this presentation
• A quick glance at the global economic outlook
• Investor sentiment
• Favoured fixed income & equity markets
Page 2
Global economic outlook
Page 3
GDP projections
Page 4
US ISM surveys moderating lower
Page 5
Business & consumer confidence robust
Page 6
Economic data starting to beat estimates
Page 7
Economic data starting to beat estimates
Page 8
Western DM capacity utilisation is robust
Page 9
US recession indicator not alerting yet
Page 10Global PMIs are stabilising
Page 11Credit growth in Europe supported
Page 12Soft data turning the corner
Page 13Timeline of China’s policy measures
Page 14Business surveys starting to accelerate
Page 15Credit growth in China picking up?
Page 16Credit growth in China picking up?
Page 17Investor sentiment
Page 18Implied volatility low once more
Page 19Professionals remain defensively-positioned
Page 20
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch GFMS April 2019Professionals remain defensively-positioned
Page 21
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch GFMS April 2019Near-term sentiment mixed
Page 22Favoured equity markets
Page 23Projected returns of equity markets
Page 24Global corporate earnings trend
Page 25Asia ex Japan corporate earnings trend
Page 26Europe corporate earnings trend
Page 27Asia ex Japan on track to meet target
• We targeted a potential upside of at least 20% by end-2020 at
the end of 2018.
• Thus far, Asian equities have rallied 13.3% YTD. However,
there is still upside particularly if earnings upgrades start
coming in and multiples expand.
• That could happen quickly should a Sino-US trade deal occur.
Page 28Asia ex Japan index & earnings
Page 29Summary & investment implications
• Global recession fears may be unwarranted.
• Remain overweight Asia ex Japan equities; underweight
developed markets (US & Europe).
• As a House we still like Chinese equities.
• We prefer East Asian markets relative to Southeast Asian
markets.
• Equity markets may pullback in the near-term, but muted
investor sentiment worldwide means that there’s fuel for a rise
in risk-assets.
Page 30Great books for investors
Page 31Great books for investors
Page 32Disclaimer
All material and content are strictly for informational purposes only and should
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