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The Future of Democracy
The Future
of Democracy
32 | IP Special • 2 /2021
The Populists and the Pandemic
The Populists
and the Pandemic
At first glance, it may seem that the coronavirus has
dealt populist governments a blow. Yet a closer
look reveals how many have managed to capitalize
on the pandemic. And the causes of populism will if
anything be further exacerbated by the crisis.
By Aline Burni
M
any of the countries led by populist govern- consistently played down the seriousness of the
ments have been among the hardest hit by disease. Their approach fostered a politicization
the COVID-19 pandemic. By October 2020, of the crisis, an increase in social polarization,
the United States, Brazil, Russia, and India ranked and encouraged supporters to disrespect social
as the top four countries in terms of the total number distancing, the use of facemasks, and compliance
of infections. Joined by the United Kingdom and with other preventive measures.
Mexico, these populist-led nations were all among Against this background, some observers have
the current ten most affected by the coronavirus argued that the pandemic exposed the limits of
outbreak, according to the list compiled by the populists in government. Their anti-elite style
Johns Hopkins University in mid-October. and hostility toward science prevented effective
In spite of variations in their responses, there policy responses and, therefore, populists would
are plausible reasons to associate the reactions of be expected to drastically lose credibility in the
populists with a particularly rapid and harmful aftermath of the crisis.
spread of the coronavirus among their countries’ However, does that necessarily mean that the
population. Although more systematic studies still COVID-19 pandemic is triggering an end to pop-
need to be conducted, populist governments are ulism around the globe? On the contrary, in spite
generally considered to have performed worst in of their failures in managing the crisis, it remains
terms of their ability to limit the spread of the virus. unlikely that populists will vanish because of the
Attitudes of populist leaders seem to have played outbreak, as their support is driven by forces that
a role. For instance, US President Donald Trump are structural and long-term. Those drivers will
and his Brazilian counterpart, Jair Bolsonaro, have likely be aggravated by the pandemic, creating
IP Special • 2 /2021 | 33The Future of Democracy
favorable conditions for an upsurge of the case of a medical emergency. Populists
populist support. have failed in most of these tasks. There
It is important when talking about is some evidence that populist-led govern-
populism to agree on what we mean by ments took relatively longer to react and
the term. According to a widely accepted prepare for the outbreak, although in the
definition, the populist worldview sepa- single aspect of closing the borders, they
rates society on moral grounds into two have been, unsurprisingly, faster. Some
homogeneous and antagonistic groups: populists neglected the seriousness of
“the pure people” versus “the corrupt COVID-19, others treated the crisis as a
elite.” Populists argue that politics should security issue, adopting draconian mea-
be the expression of the “general will” of sures. Some disregarded the recommen-
the people, and portray themselves as the dations of health authorities and experts,
only alternative to represent such a will. and have personally endorsed drugs and
Populists are the anti-elite, they frame the treatments in the absence of scientific ev-
elite as a self-interested group that takes idence about their efficacy.
decisions which adversely affect the peo-
ple and their sovereignty. Populism is of- Denial, Law and Order, Power Grabs
ten combined with other host ideologies, The coronavirus pandemic is an unfolding
such as socialism, neoliberalism, or na- crisis. Systematic analyses still have to be
tivism. As such, populist politicians and developed in order to establish a clear cor-
movements can be located across the po- relation between the type of regime and
litical-ideological spectrum, mostly either the effectiveness of crisis response. Hence,
on the extreme left or extreme right. it is not fully determined to what extent
Here, I will focus on radical right popu- populist leadership has caused particular-
lists. Two additional features characterize ly negative outcomes related to COVID-19.
this variety: nativism and authoritarian- Other factors beyond regime type or lead-
ism. Nativism attributes an exclusionary ership style can also play a significant role,
nature to the populist appeal and can such as pre-existing health infrastructure,
be understood as the search for a homo- wealth, safety nets, demographic density,
geneous community, either in cultural, or even aspects of the civic culture. A study
ethnical, linguistic, or religious terms. In by the Kiel Institute for the World Econo-
the nativist view, what is “non-native” is my, for example, indicates that, in general,
perceived as a threat. Authoritarianism populist and non-populist governments
refers to the belief in a strictly ordered so- have implemented similar containment
ciety, which values hierarchy and severe policy measures. Among populist gov-
punishment of violations against social ernments, not all have responded in the
conventions and the law. same way. According to an analysis by
Aline Burni Effective crisis management entails a the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change,
is a political scien- forward-looking assessment of the seri- 12 out of 17 populist governments currently
tist and research-
er at the Research ousness of the situation, transparent com- in power have taken the COVID-19 crisis
Program “Inter- munication, trust building, and unity, as seriously. As a whole, it appears that three
and Transnational well as the ability to make difficult policy main types of responses have character-
Cooperation” at
choices and learn with constantly updat- ized populist regimes during the corona-
the German Devel-
opment Institute ing information. In this process, relying on virus outbreak: denial, focussing on law
(DIE). scientific evidence is crucial, especially in and order, and power grabbing.
34 | IP Special • 2 /2021The Populists and the Pandemic
Brazil and the United States typify a creased the level of repression toward
denial response. Both Trump and Bol- the population, leading to the arrest of
sonaro played down the lethality of the protesters, journalists, and human rights
coronavirus and discouraged citizens activists. The Filipino government ordered
from complying with social distancing the police to accompany medics and trans-
rules. Moreover, they disrespected health fer infected patients to isolation facilities,
measures imposed by their own govern- while citizens have been encouraged to re-
ments, supported popular protests, and port infected neighbors in hiding. Duterte
lacked the transparency to release official recently extended the nationwide “state
information. Ironically, despite being in- of calamity” by a year, claiming it would
fected by COVID-19 themselves, neither allow the government to draw emergency
Trump nor Bolsonaro changed their ap- funds faster. As public criticism toward the
proach to it. Both leaders have engaged government increased, Duterte sharpened
in conflicts with former health ministers his tone. He censured health workers for
and advisors, encouraged the use of un- publicly criticizing the administration and
proven substances as cures, and blamed warned that a revolution would be “more
regional authorities for the economic im- dangerous than COVID-19.”
pact following the lockdown measures, India also experienced one of the strict-
which they actively opposed. As a result, est lockdowns. Prime Minister Naranda
the US and Brazil experienced the longest Modi took the drastic move of declaring
plateaus of COVID-19. a national lockdown for 21 days with only
Illustrative of the law-and-order re- four hours’ notice. The lockdown was
sponse are countries like India and the imposed without warning, planning, or
Philippines. In the latter, President Rodri- transparency about the deliberations and
go Duterte imposed one of the longest and scientific advice behind it. Such draconi-
severest lockdowns in the world. This stark an measures hugely affected internal mi-
response has been coupled with a largely grant workers, who became trapped. The
punitive and militaristic implementation lockdown further worsened the problem
of COVID-19 measures. Duterte ordered of vigilantism and violence against Mus-
quarantine violators to be shot and in- lims accused of spreading the virus with
religious gatherings. Shutting down the
country also opened the way to sending
activists and journalists to jail.
Finally, Hungary and Poland are ex-
amples of attempts to grab power. Both
India imposed a
governments have regarded the pandemic
as an opportunity to expand their exec-
utive powers and undermine democratic
draconian lock- institutions, although in different ways.
In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán
implemented a state of emergency and
down with four passed legislation allowing tighter control
of information as well as the imprisonment
hours’ notice
of journalists publishing allegedly false
or distorted facts about COVID-19. Addi-
IP Special • 2 /2021 | 35The Future of Democracy
tionally, the central government took away ered the election legitimate, but the elec-
financial resources from local administra- tion observing office of the Organization
tions and placed important state compa- for Security and Cooperation in Europe
nies under partial military supervision. (OSCE) judged the election not fair due to
To a lesser extent, in Poland there were the unequal access of candidates to the
also attempts by the ruling Law and Justice media during the campaign.
(PiS) party to expand powers and improve A distinctive feature of populist regimes
its political advantage. Presidential elec- at this stage of the pandemic is the higher
tions had been scheduled to take place on risk they pose to the quality of democracy,
May 10, in the middle of the pandemic. either by eroding institutions, centraliz-
However, it became clear that campaign- ing executive powers, shrinking the space
ing in the normal way would put peoples’ left to opposition, manipulating the me-
health and lives at risk. Despite the lock- dia, or fostering social polarization. An
down and the suspension of campaigning analysis from the V-Dem Institute shows
that government responses to COVID-19
may accelerate anti-democratic trends.
Indeed, from the cases mentioned, most
have experienced major violations of dem-
ocratic principles and are at high risk of
backsliding (Brazil, the US, Hungary, the
Most populist-led Philippines, and India), while others suf-
fered some violations and are under medi-
countries are not
um risk (Poland and Russia). Hence, most
populist-led countries are not among the
world’s safer democracies.
among the safer Pandemic Popularity
The pandemic is posing huge challenges
democracies to all types of governments around the
world. Despite the particular struggle of
populist leaders to manage it appropri-
ately, COVID-19 does not mean a defeat
for them. It is not certain that populists
in power will lose their support, and in
many of those countries, public opinion
by candidates, PiS leaders initially refused data shows that the population has most-
to support the state of emergency and ly supported their governments’ actions
the postponing of the vote, before it was against the spread of the coronavirus, at
eventually delayed until June 28. Then, least during the first wave of infections.
the government adopted a rapid change In fact, in some cases, their approval
of the electoral voting system, replacing ratings have even increased during the
in-person voting with a postal ballot. In pandemic, as happened with President
the second round of voting on July 12, An- Bolsonaro in Brazil, President Recep
drzej Duda was re-elected with a narrow Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey and Prime
margin. The Polish Supreme Court consid- Minister Modi in India. There are at least
36 | IP Special • 2 /2021The Populists and the Pandemic
The Indian lockdown worsened the problem of vigilantism and violence against Muslims, who were accused of spreading the virus
with religious gatherings. The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi also used it as an opportunity to silence critics
three reasons why the phenomenon of This means that support for populist
populism itself is unlikely to end with parties cannot be simply explained as a
the coronavirus. protest vote, but rather is a result of ad-
First, the rise of populism has structur- hesion to specific ideas and programs.
al and long-term drivers. Several academic Economic insecurity and injustices
studies demonstrate that economic and/or caused by globalization, which gener-
cultural factors explain the populist surge, ates “winners” and “losers,” and per-
occasionally in combination. Among the ceptions of relative deprivation (not
causes, there is a longstanding transfor- only in terms of income and economic
mation of the main dimensions of politi- status but also socially and politically)
cal conflict, which increasingly focuses on play a major role. Furthermore, popu-
cultural cleavages and allows emphasis on lism is intrinsically linked to the per-
identity politics. In many countries, social ception that democratic regimes have
divisions and polarization have deepened. failed and that political elites are un-
Support for right-wing populists often trustworthy. For years, there has been
reflects a cultural backlash against the declining trust in political elites and
growth of post-materialist and liberal public institutions, even in consolidat-
values among younger generations. ed democracies.
IP Special • 2 /2021 | 37The Future of Democracy
Second, some of the drivers of populism hold the president responsible for the hun-
are likely to be aggravated by the pandem- dreds of thousands of deaths caused by
ic. Most nations will fall into economic re- COVID-19.
cession. The downturn is projected to be In general, social media has given pop-
significantly deeper than the latest global ulists the freedom to articulate and spread
financial crisis. Economic growth will con- their ideology. Studies have shown that
tract in every world region. Unemployment the emergence of fake news is among the
will drastically rise in most countries, and explanatory factors for the growing suc-
inequality is expected to increase. cess of populists. As expected, COVID-19
The economic shock will reverse many has been linked to the emergence of a
years of progress in the direction of glob- series of new conspiracy theories and, in
al development goals and tens of millions many cases, these are directly related to
of people will return to extreme poverty. populist movements and leaders around
This means that socio-economic grievanc- the world.
es will persist or be aggravated in a post- Populist regimes have not all responded
COVID-19 world. Vulnerable populations in the same way to the COVID-19 pandemic
and constituencies that feel unrepresented and they will possibly suffer different im-
by the major parties are likely to perceive pacts in the course of the outbreak. The
they have been left behind. As political populist surge around the globe of recent
dissatisfaction increases, chances are years cannot be explained by one single
that those “left behind” will opt for rad- cause. Context-specific aspects must be
ical changes and support (supposedly) taken into account. In fact, the rise of popu-
anti-establishment politicians. lism is often explained by a convergence of
factors, including socio-economic transfor-
An Opportunity to Amplify mations, the strategies and organizational
Third, populists have made instrumental abilities of leaders and movements, as well
use of the pandemic to centralize powers as changing political preferences and at-
and try to mobilize by formenting discon- titudes of individuals, mainly toward de-
tent and insecurity, denouncing the crisis mocracy and traditional political elites.
as the failure of globalization, “open bor- One of the reasons why populism can-
ders,” international organizations, and not be considered overcome at this point
liberalism. The coronavirus pandemic is that most populists in power have taken
offers them an opportunity to amplify the the opportunity to accelerate authoritarian
use of communication and mobilization measures. Still, this is not the only rea-
strategies that have proven beneficial to son for their expected resilience. The root
the diffusion of their ideas. This includes causes of populism remain in place and
the dissemination of fake news, conspir- are likely to be aggravated in the aftermath
acy theories, and fact-free “information.” of the pandemic. The crisis of liberal de-
For example, Bolsonaro has appeared mocracy, social and economic grievances,
in weekly livestreaming videos on social as well as the political use of mechanisms
media as a direct communication chan- of radicalization and the spread of false
nel with his followers. His message has, at information are factors that allowed pop-
least in part, proven effective in framing ulism to flourish in the first place. They
the coronavirus pandemic. A significant need to be addressed if populism is to be
number of Brazilians (47 percent) do not contained in the years to come.
38 | IP Special • 2 /2021You can also read
