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Executive Summary
xxxxxxx
The homelessness monitor:
England 2021
Suzanne Fitzpatrick, Beth Watts, Hal Pawson,
Glen Bramley, Jenny Wood, Mark Stephens & Janice
Blenkinsopp. Institute for Social Policy, Housing and
Equalities Research (I-SPHERE), Heriot-Watt University;
City Futures Research Centre, University of New South
Wales; School of Social and Political Sciences, University
of Glasgow
March 2021ii The homelessness monitor: England 2021 iii
The homelessness monitor The homelessness monitor:
The homelessness monitor is a longitudinal study providing an independent
analysis of the homelessness impacts of recent economic and policy
England 2021
developments across the United Kingdom. Separate reports are produced
for each of the United Kingdom nations. Suzanne Fitzpatrick, Beth Watts, Hal Pawson,
This ninth annual report updates our account of how homelessness stands
Glen Bramley, Jenny Wood, Mark Stephens & Janice
in England in 2020, or as close to 2020 as data availability allows. It also Blenkinsopp. Institute for Social Policy, Housing and
highlights emerging trends and forecasts some of the likely future changes,
identifying the developments likely to have the most significant impacts on Equalities Research (I-SPHERE), Heriot-Watt University;
homelessness. City Futures Research Centre, University of New South
Wales; School of Social and Political Sciences, University
of Glasgow
March 2021iv The homelessness monitor: England 2021 v
About Crisis
Crisis is the national charity for homeless people. We help people directly
out of homelessness, and campaign for the social changes needed to solve it
altogether. We know that together we can end homelessness.
About the authors
Professor Suzanne Fitzpatrick, Dr Beth Watts, Professor Glen Bramley, Dr Jenny
Wood and Dr Janice Blenkinsopp are all based at the Institute for Social Policy,
Housing, and Equalities Research (I-SPHERE). Professor Hal Pawson is based at
the City Futures Research Centre, University of New South Wales. Professor Mark
Stephens is based at the School of Social and Political Sciences, University of
Glasgow.
Acknowledgements
This report was commissioned and funded by Crisis, and our thanks go to Sophie
Boobis, Dr Francesca Albanese and Matthew Downie at Crisis for all of their
support with this work. In addition, we are extremely grateful to all of the key
informants from the statutory and voluntary sector organisations across England
who found time amid the COVID-19-related pressures to help us with this, and
likewise to all 148 local authorities who completed the online questionnaire
despite the extraordinary strain they were under as a result of the pandemic.
We would like to record our sincere appreciation for Rhiannon Sims’ excellent
analysis of social security and housing policy developments that we were able
to draw on in preparing Chapter 2 of this report. We would also like to thank Dr
Filip Sosenko for his assistance in setting up the survey, Jill McIntyre for all her
help with chasing survey responses and with the overall logistics of the project,
and Lynne McMordie for undertaking the formatting and proofing tasks (all
I-SPHERE).
Disclaimer: All views and any errors contained in this report are the responsibility
Crisis head office of the authors. The views expressed should not be assumed to be those of Crisis
66 Commercial Street or any of the key informants who assisted with this work.
London E1 6LT
Tel: 0300 636 1967
Fax: 0300 636 2012
www.crisis.org.uk
© Crisis 2020
Crisis UK (trading as Crisis).
Registered Charity Numbers:
E&W1082947, SC040094.
Company Number: 4024938vi The homelessness monitor: England 2021 vii
Contents
Figures viii 5. Core homelessness numbers and trends 59
Tables x 5.1 Introduction 59
Acronyms xii 5.2 Baseline estimates of core homelessness 63
Executive summary xiv 5.3 Core homelessness, trends and profiles 65
5.4 Key points 70
1. Introduction 1
1.1 Introduction 1 6. P rojections of core homelessness 72
1.2 Scope of report 1 6.1 Introduction 72
1.3 Research methods 2 6.2 The baseline projections and COVID-19 74
1.4 Causation and homelessness 2 6.3 Direct measures and early priorities in immediate
1.5 Structure of report 3 post-COVID-19 period 78
6.4 Variant policy and contextual scenarios in the medium term 80
2. T he context for homelessness: wider economic, 6.5 Key points 86
housing, and welfare drivers 4
2.1 Introduction 4 7. Conclusions 88
2.2 The social and economic context 4
2.3 Housing policies and the housing market 8 Appendix 1 Topic guide (2020) 92
2.4 Income support policies 14
2.5 Key points 22 Appendix 2 Local authority survey (2020) 95
3. H omelessness policies 24 Appendix 3 Additional details on core homelessness
3.1 Introduction 24 estimates and projection 102
3.2 The COVID-19 crisis response 24
3.3 The impact of pre-COVID-19 homelessness policies: the Rough Bibliography 112
Sleepers Initiative and Homelessness Reduction Act 2017 30
3.4 Post-pandemic homelessness services 33
3.5 Key points 35
4. Statutory homelessness trends 37
4.1 Introduction 37
4.2 Relating statutory homelessness statistics to
the Homelessness Reduction Act framework 39
4.3 The changing incidence of homelessness demand:
headline indicators and processes 39
4.4 Statutory homelessness: profile and causes 43
4.5 Temporary accommodation placements 47
4.6 Analysing Homelessness Reduction Act duty
decision outcomes 50
4.7 Homelessness demand and local authority
homelessness actions in the initial national 2020 COVID-19
lockdown. 52
4.8 Key points 56viii The homelessness monitor: England 2021 ix
Figures
Figure 2.1: Trends in earnings and real earnings 2007/08-2018/19 Figure 4.18: Households becoming homeless from non-tenure
(2007/08 = 100) 5 accommodation: recent trends in current/former
Figure 2.2: Relative poverty after housing costs (UK, 2007/08-2018/19) 6 accommodation types 2019-20 54
Figure 2.3: Landlord possession actions in the county courts (England & Figure 4.19: Temporary accommodation placements, 2019-20 55
Wales) Q1 2019-Q3 2020 9 Figure 4.20: Greater London rough sleepers enumerated in each
Figure 2.4: Landlord possession claims (England & Wales) quarter, 2019-20: breakdown by CHAIN-designated
Q1 2019-Q3 2020 9 rough sleeper status 56
Figure 2.5: Households subject to Total Benefits Cap (Great Britain, Figure 4.21: Greater London rough sleepers enumerated
May 2013-May 2020) 17 2019-20: breakdown by nationality 56
Figure 4.1: Homelessness Reduction Act – statutory homelessness Figure 5.1: Core homelessness estimates by category and year,
decisions 2018/19 and 2019/20 38 England 2012-2019 65
Figure 4.2: Eligible homelessness applications 2018/19 and 2019/20: Figure 5.2: Core homelessness estimates by broad region and
breakdown by initial decision 40 year, England 2012-2019 66
Figure 4.3: Initial application decision outcomes, 2019/20 – % change Figure 5.3: Gender, age and household type of core homeless,
on 2018/19 41 sofa surfers and other statutory homeless compared with adult
Figure 4.4: Initial application decision outcomes, 2019/20 – % change population 67
on 2018/19 by region 41 Figure 5.4: Disability and migrant status by core homeless,
Figure 4.5: Main Duty decisions, 2009/10-2019/20 42 sofa surfers and other statutory homeless compared
Figure 4.6: Referrals under ‘Duty to Refer’ 2018-2020 43 with adult population. 68
Figure 4.7: Homeless applicants owed prevention or relief duties in Figure 5.5: Work status, low income, and financial difficulty by
2019/20: household type profile 44 core homeless, sofa surfers and other statutory homeless
Figure 4.8: Homeless applicants owed prevention or relief duties in compared with adult population. 69
2019/20: assessed support needs 45 Figure 5.6: Broad regional distribution of core homeless,
Figure 4.9: Homeless applicants owed prevention or relief duties in sofa surfers and other statutory homeless. 70
2019/20: main reason for loss of last settled home 46 Figure 6.1: ‘Business as usual’ (non-COVID-19) baseline projection
Figure 4.10: Local authorities’ use of temporary accommodation of core homelessness by category, England 2012-41 75
for homeless households, Mar 2009-Mar 2020 48 Figure 6.2: New with-COVID-19 baseline projection of core
Figure 4.11: Temporary accommodation placements, homelessness by category, England 2012-41 78
2009-2020 (Q1): type of TA 48 Figure 6.3: New with-COVID-19 baseline projection of core
Figure 4.12: Outcomes of Prevention and Relief activity in homelessness by broad region, England 2012-41 79
2019/20 – cases where associated duties ended in period 49 Figure 6.4: Impacts on rough sleeping of COVID-19 and successive
Figure 4.13: Outcomes of Prevention and Relief activity in 2019/20 additional policy measures in years 2021-2024
– cases where associated duties ended in period with (percent of Business as Usual increment for each element) 80
accommodation secured 50 Figure 6.5: Impacts on core homelessness of successive a
Figure 4.14: Outcomes of Prevention and Relief activity in 2019/20 dditional policy measures in years 2021-24 (percent
– cases where associated duties ended in period without of Business as Usual increment for each policy package) 81
accommodation secured or new duty triggered 51 Figure 6.6: Summary of Impact of Policies considered individually
Figure 4.15: Housing (and other) outcomes for households by selected year, ranked by size of impact by 2041
owed the Main Duty, where duty ended in 2019/20 52 (percent of with-COVID-19 baseline core homeless forecast) 82
Figure 4.16: Recent trends in households owed prevention or Figure 6.7: Total core homelessness in England with the sequential
relief duties, Q1 2019-Q2 2020 53 addition of ten policy scenarios to reduce core homelessness
Figure 4.17: Households owed a prevention or relief duty: in the period to 2041 85
Recent trends on main immediate reason for Figure 6.8: Total core homelessness in London with the sequential
homelessness, 2019-20 53 addition of ten policy scenarios to reduce core
homelessness in the period to 2041 86x The homelessness monitor: England 2021 xi
Tables
Table 5.1: Core homelessness categories and definitions 60 Table A2.13: ‘There is sufficient funding in the current financial
Table 5.2 Data sources used to estimate base period year (2020/21) to deliver an effective response to
numbers in each category of core homelessness. 64 homelessness in our area, taking into account
Table 6.1: Policy scenarios tested through projections the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic’ (%) 101
model over period 2021-41 73 Table A2.14: Possible impact of extended priority need provisions
Table 6.2: Longer term impact of policies considered in the Domestic Abuse Bill on councils’ ability to
individually on main components of core assist people fleeing abuse into settled
homelessness (% of with-COVID-19 baseline at 2041) 83 accommodation (%) 101
Table A2.1: Survey response rate 95 Table A3.1: Central estimates of core homelessness
Table A2.2: Overall number of households seeking homelessness by component and source, England c.2018-19 105
assistance in Q1 2020/21 compared with equivalent Table A3.2: Baseline estimates of core homelessness by
period in 2019/20 (%) 96 element in 2018-19, showing central weighted
Table A2.3: Perceived change in expressed demand from specific total, and totals under ‘low’ and ‘high’ assumptions 106
groups: Q1 2020/21 compared to the equivalent period in
2019/20 (%) 96
Table A2.4: Looking ahead to the post-lockdown period,
do you anticipate any change in the numbers
of people in particular groups seeking assistance from
your Housing Options/homelessness service? (%) 97
Table A2.5: In relation to prevention and relief activity,
and as compared with the period immediately
before March 2020, would you say that your
authority has been? (%) 97
Table A2.6: Has the Homelessness Reduction Act 2017 enabled
a more or less effective response to homelessness in
your area during the COVID-19 crisis than would have
otherwise been the case? (%) 98
Table A2.7: How important have the following policy responses to
the COVID-19 crisis been in preventing or minimising
homelessness in your area? (%) 98
Table A2.8: How important have the following welfare
changes made in response to the COVID-19
crisis been in preventing or minimising homelessness
in your area? (%) 99
Table A2.10: Since the start of the COVID-19 crisis, has access to
private rented tenancies for homeless households
become easier or more difficult in your area? (%) 99
Table A2.11: How would you rate your authority’s capacity to
deal with the homelessness- related challenges
associated with the COVID-19 pandemic? (%) 100
Table A2.12: ‘The Government’s emergency response has made
it more likely that we will be able to move people
experiencing rough sleeping or at risk of rough sleeping
into safe permanent housing in the long term (i.e.
implement a housing led response)’ (%) 100xii The homelessness monitor: England 2021 xiii
Acronyms
B&B Bed and Breakfast
BAU Business as Usual
BNL By Name List
CHAIN Multi-agency database recording information about rough
sleepers and the wider street population in London
CPAG Child Poverty Action Group
CTS Council Tax Support
DEFRA Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
DHP Discretionary Housing Payment
DTR Duty to Refer
DWP Department for Work and Pensions
EEA European Economic Area
EHS English Housing Survey
FCA Financial Conduct Authority
FOI Freedom of Information
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GFC Global Financial Crisis
HB Housing Benefit
H-CLIC Case-level statutory homelessness data collection tool
HMRC HM Revenue & Customs
HRA Homelessness Reduction Act
JRF Joseph Rowntree Foundation
LA Local Authority
LGA Local Government Association
LHA Local Housing Allowance
LWA Local Welfare Assistance
MD Main Duty
MHCLG Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government
NAO National Audit Office
NRPF No Recourse to Public Funds
ONS Office for National Statistics
PRS Private Rented Sector
RSI Rough Sleepers Initiative
SMD Severe and Multiple Disadvantage
SRHMM Sub-Regional Housing Market Model
TA Temporary Accommodation
UC Universal Credit
UK United Kingdom
UKHLS UK Household Longitudinal Studyxiv The homelessness monitor: England 2021 Executive Summary xv
Executive
summary
The Homelessness Monitor series single people. This is in stark contrast exceeding that of all temporary than half (110,000 households
is a longitudinal study providing to the pre-Homelessness Reduction accommodation – up by 17 per cent or individuals). Next in numerical
an independent analysis of the Act era when the key headline in the 12 months to March 2020, and importance was hostel and
homelessness impacts of recent statistic – households ‘accepted’ by by 299 per cent since 2010. similar accommodation (42,000),
economic and policy developments local authorities as in ‘priority need’ followed by unsuitable temporary
in England and elsewhere in the – comprised only around one-third •T
hanks to various temporary accommodation and other
United Kingdom.1 This ninth annual single people. protective measures (especially unconventional accommodation,
Homelessness Monitor England income protection programmes at around 19,000 each. The least
updates our account of how •N
onetheless substantial numbers and eviction moratoria), the numerous group were those actually
homelessness stands in 2020, or of (mainly single) homeless COVID-19 pandemic triggered sleeping rough at a point in time,
as close to 2020 as data availability applicants still reach the end of the no immediate overall increase in which we estimate at 13,600.
allows, and covers a year dominated by post- Homelessness Reduction homelessness applications. Indeed,
the twin major events of the COVID-19 Act operational procedures the number judged as threatened • It is predicted that the economic
pandemic2 and Brexit. It is also the first without having secured settled with homelessness fell back aftermath of COVID-19 risks a
Monitor in which a comprehensive accommodation, or even having had significantly April-June 2020 (down substantial rise in core homelessness,
analysis of Homelessness Reduction such accommodation offered to 35 per cent on the previous quarter). including rough sleeping, unless the
Act processes and outcomes is them (around 20,000 households in But temporary accommodation Government implements a range
included and we offer detailed 2019/20). placements surged, particularly of of housing and welfare mitigation
modelling estimates and forward single homeless people, as a result of interventions, including continuing
projections of extreme forms of ‘core’ •S
ome 48 per cent of all 2019/20 the emergency measures to protect with emergency accommodation
homelessness. ‘owed a duty’ applicants were judged people at risk of rough sleeping measures for those at risk of rough
as having some form of support during the pandemic. sleeping.
Key points to emerge from our latest need, and in 23 per cent of (all ‘owed
analysis are as follows: a duty’) cases, this was linked to a • ‘Core homelessness’ in England – a • In the longer term, the largest
history of mental ill-health. Only concept which captures the most projected impact on reducing core
• Some 305,000 single people, a small proportion of applicants severe and immediate forms of homelessness would result from a
couples and families registered are subject to ‘complex support homelessness – is estimated to have large expansion of total and social
homelessness applications with needs’ (e.g., 3 per cent of ‘owed totalled nearly 220,000 in 2019, housing supply and consistent, large-
local authorities in 2019/20. Of a duty’ applicants in London had having risen from about 187,000 in scale application of Housing First
these, 289,000 (95%) were judged support needs associated with drug 2012. During 2020 these numbers accompanied by appropriate support
as homeless or threatened with dependency; 7 per cent in rest of dropped somewhat to around for mental health and substance
homelessness. England). 200,000, mainly due to the effects misuse issues, alongside the raising
of the Government’s emergency of the Local Housing Allowance. A
• Amongst those threatened with • Temporary accommodation measures in response to the meaningful levelling up of economic
homelessness and entitled to a placements show a 91 per cent COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020 there performance across the English
‘prevention’ duty half (49%) are single increase since 2011 (and 9 per cent were an estimated 10,500 people regions would also contribute to the
adults and amongst those actually in the 12 months to March 2020). currently sleeping rough on any reduction of core homelessness.
homeless and entitled to a relief Bed and Breakfast hotel placements given night which had dropped by a
duty almost three-quarters (72%) are have continued to increase at a rate third on the previous year. •L
evels of infection and COVID-
related deaths have been low
1 Parallel Homelessness Monitors are being published for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. All of the UK •T
he largest element of core amongst homeless people in
Homelessness Monitor reports are available from http://www.crisis.org.uk/pages/homelessnessmonitor.html
homelessness in 2018-19 was its England, indicating an effective
2 Fitzpatrick, S., Watts, B. & Sims, R. (2020) Homelessness Monitor England 2020: COVID-19 Crisis Response
Briefing. London: Crisis. https://www.crisis.org.uk/ending-homelessness/homelessness-knowledge-hub/ least visible manifestation, sofa public health strategy with regards
homelessness-monitor/england/homelessness-monitor-england-2020-covid-19-crisis-response-briefing/ surfing, accounting for more to this vulnerable population. Criticalxvi The homelessness monitor: England 2021 Executive Summary xvii
to this successful outcome was the •L
ocal authorities expressed qualified Trends in homelessness the 81,500 prevention cases logged as
national ‘Everyone In’ emergency approval for the role played by Statutory homelessness ‘duty ended’ during the year.
accommodation initiative for the Homelessness Reduction Act This year’s Monitor was the first where
people sleeping rough and those legal framework in facilitating their the analysis of statutory homelessness While fundamental changes to the
at risk; around 30,000 people in responses to homelessness during trends was substantially based on legal framework for homelessness
total had been assisted under these the early pandemic period. Councils the operation of the Homelessness application assessment under the
arrangements by autumn 2020. more critical of the Act dislike what Reduction Act 2017 and its associated Homelessness Reduction Act 2017
they perceive as the excessive (H-CLIC) administrative dataset. have made ‘new homelessness’
•T
he speed and clarity of the early bureaucracy associated with it. Some 305,000 households registered trend over time comparisons more
central Government response on homelessness applications with difficult, temporary accommodation
rapidly accommodating people •K
ey changes to local authority local authorities in 2019/20. Of placements, which can be legitimately
sleeping rough, eliminating the use working practices prompted by the these, 289,000 (95%) were judged graphed over a long time series,
of communal shelters, enhancing COVID-19 emergency include a as homeless or threatened with show a 91 per cent increase since
welfare benefits, and halting shift to remote/online working with homelessness. This is slightly higher 2011 (and 9 per cent in the 12 months
evictions, was widely welcomed, with service users, which was viewed as than the 272,000 ‘local authority case to March 2020).4 Bed and Breakfast
local authorities and homelessness having been largely successful. Some actions’ as estimated for 2017/18, the hotel placements have continued to
charities also praised for rapidly rising Councils intend to make a decisive last year of the ‘old regime’.3 increase at a rate exceeding that of all
to an unprecedented challenge. shift away from communal forms temporary accommodation – up by
of sleeping provision for homeless By comparison with the Housing 17 per cent in the 12 months to March
•H
owever, subsequent ‘mixed people post-pandemic, though Act 1996 regime, a much-increased 2020, and by 299 per cent since 2010.
messages’ from central Government, others feel that financial and legal proportion of those seeking help
particularly on assistance to non- constraints make the use of night under the Homelessness Reduction The increased ‘visibility’ of single
United Kingdom nationals ineligible shelters unavoidable. Act are being formally assisted under adults in the official homelessness
for benefits and on the continuation prevention or relief duties, with statistics is one of the most striking
of Everyone In, became a matter •W
hile the COVID-19-prompted £20 the result that far fewer applicants/ changes brought about by the new
of acute concern amongst local weekly enhancement to Universal applications are ‘progressing’ through legislative framework. This group
authorities and their third sector Credit and Working Tax Credits have the system as far as being assessed as accounted almost three-quarters (72%)
partners as the crisis progressed. been widely welcomed, at the time owed a main statutory rehousing duty. of all of those assessed as homeless
of writing the Government planned This traditional headline indicator of and entitled to the ‘relief’ duty,
•M
any local authorities offered an to withdraw these uplifts from April homelessness demand – at 40,000 in and half (49%) of those threatened
upbeat assessment of their own 2021. There is also no indication 2019/20 – was well below the 57,000 with homelessness and entitled to
performance in response to the that they will be extended to legacy recorded in 2017/18. a ‘prevention’ duty. This is in stark
homelessness consequences of the benefits. The restoration of the contrast to the pre- Homelessness
COVID-19 crisis and initial lockdown Local Housing Allowance maxima to A substantial proportion of 2019/20 Reduction Act era when the key
period, though it was clear that the cover 30 per cent of private sector prevention and relief actions ended headline statistic – households
resilience of both staff and resources rents was especially beneficial in the with accommodation having been ‘accepted’ as owed the main duty
had been severely tested, with context of managing homelessness secured. Thus, households have been – comprised only around one-third
many local authorities surprised risks, but Government plans to enabled to retain existing – or to single people.
by the sheer scale of need that the refreeze these rates from April 2021 obtain new – accommodation. This
emergency measures uncovered. will cause dismay. was the outcome for most prevention Also notable is the emerging
duty cases ended during the year intelligence from H-CLIC on the profile
•W
hile acknowledging the large •C
OVID-19 has inflicted extensive (58%), with the equivalent figure for of support needs in the statutory
amount of homelessness emergency damage on the economy and on relief cases ended being 40 per cent. homeless population. While almost
funding made available by central the public finances. There is acute Assisting an applicant to obtain a new half (48%) of all households assessed
Government during the pandemic, concern about a potential tidal wave place to live (rather than to retain as owed a homelessness prevention
other stakeholders criticised the of ‘new’ homelessness as the COVID- existing housing) was, by definition, the or relief duty are recorded as having
proliferation of highly specified, 19-induced recession takes hold, ‘accommodation secured’ result for a relevant support need, these needs
short-term funding pots, focused Brexit causes disruption to trade and all of the 2019/20 relief cases with this were highly diverse in nature. Far
overwhelmingly on rough sleeping, various temporary labour market, outcome, as well as for 51,490 (63%) of from being dominated by complex
as well as the apparently ‘transitional’ welfare and housing protections are
nature of the accommodation to scaled back or ended during 2021. 3 See Figure 4.11 in: Fitzpatrick, S., Pawson, H., Bramley, G., Wood, J., Watts, B., Stephens, M. & Blenkinsopp, J.
be provided under the Next Steps (2019) The Homelessness Monitor: England 2019. London: Crisis. Local authority case actions’ in this context
refers to the households subject to Housing 1996 main duty decisions plus those assisted by local authorities
programme
via informal prevention or relief in that year (2017/18).
4 That is, at the effective start of the COVID-19 pandemic, largely preceding the impact of the Everyone In
programme.xviii The homelessness monitor: England 2021 Executive Summary xix
support needs associated with drug or Significantly, virtually all of this increase temporary accommodation and other national application of Housing First,
alcohol problems, offending or rough resulted from growth in single adult unconventional accommodation, and increased rates of Local Housing
sleeping histories, as some might placements (especially single men) at around 19,000 each. The least Allowance). A successful levelling up
assume, mental or physical ill-health – most probably associated with the numerous group were those actually of economic performance across the
problems, and experience of domestic Everyone In emergency rough sleeper sleeping rough at a point in time, English regions would also contribute
violence, were more prominent. temporary housing initiative launched which we estimate at 13,600. to the reduction of core homelessness.
In fact, only a small proportion of in March 2020, as discussed further
applicants are subject to ‘complex below. The gradual increase in overall Economic, policy and COVID-19
support needs’ (e.g. 3 per cent of numbers from 2012 to 2019 concealed impacts on homelessness
‘owed a duty’ applicants in London Core homelessness wide differences between different Going into COVID-19, the United
had support needs associated with For the first time in this year’s Monitor, categories, with hostel placements Kingdom had experienced a decade
drug dependency; 7 per cent in rest of we present quantitative analysis of declining by 13 per cent, and sofa of austerity, which included public
England). ‘core homelessness’, which captures surfers and other unconventional expenditure constraints affecting
some of the most severe and increasing by 16 per cent and 13 per public services and social security
Other key points to flag from immediate forms of homelessness.5 cent, while rough sleeping virtually benefits. In 2018/19, 17 per cent of
analysis of these first two years of doubled (99%) and unsuitable individuals in the United Kingdom
the Homelessness Reduction Act The key categories captured by core temporary accommodation rose by lived in households whose income
operation include some positive signs homelessness include people sleeping 171 per cent. before housing costs (adjusted for
that may allay initial concerns about rough, staying in places not intended household composition) fell below
certain aspects of the legislation as residential accommodation Our predictions indicate that the the relative poverty threshold.
(e.g., discharge of duty on grounds of (e.g. cars, tents, boats, sheds, etc.), economic aftermath of COVID-19 risks Research conducted by Heriot-Watt
‘non-cooperation’ is rarely recorded living in homeless hostels, refuges a substantial rise in core homelessness University for the Joseph Rowntree
in practice), but also its limitations. and shelters, placed in unsuitable unless the Government implements Foundation indicated that some 2.4
Principal amongst these limitations is temporary accommodation (e.g. Bed a range of housing and welfare million people, including 550,000
that substantial numbers of (mainly and Breakfast hotels, Out of Area mitigation interventions. This should children, experienced destitution at
single) homeless applicants still reach Placements, etc.), and sofa surfing (i.e., include continuing with emergency some point in 2019.6 The survey also
the end of the post- Homelessness staying with non-family, on a short- accommodation measures for found that the extent of destitution
Reduction Act operational procedures term basis, in overcrowded conditions). those at risk of rough sleeping on a had grown, with the numbers of adults
without having secured settled substantial scale, maximising targeted and children affected rising by more
accommodation, or even having had We estimate core homelessness homelessness prevention measures, than half since 2017. Consequently,
such accommodation offered to in England to have totalled nearly ensuring social rehousing quotas the relatively stable overall poverty
them (around 20,000 households in 220,000 in 2019, having risen from for homeless people, placing limits rate over the past 15 years seems to
2019/20). about 187,000 in 2012. During 2020 on evictions, and implementing key disguise increases in very extreme
these numbers dropped somewhat welfare changes (especially raising the experiences of hardship that reflect the
Thanks to various temporary protective to around 200,000, including a drop level of Local Housing Allowance to impacts of labour market and social
measures (especially eviction in rough sleeping by a third mainly the level of median actual rents (and security change.
moratoria, see below), the COVID-19 due to the effects of the emergency maintaining that level).
pandemic triggered no immediate COVID-19 ‘Everyone In’ programme COVID-19 has caused the most
overall increase in homelessness aimed at those at risk of rough In the medium term, the most dramatic shrinkage of the economy
applications. However, temporary sleeping (see further below). effective policies for reducing core ever experienced and in any other
accommodation placements surged homelessness would be large circumstances such as massive
in Q2 2020. By quarter end, the The largest element of core increases in welfare benefit levels contraction of the economy would
overall national total was more than homelessness in 2018-19 was its and associated measures to reduce have resulted in mass unemployment.
6,000 higher than at the start, with least visible manifestation, sofa destitution, including raising the level But lockdown was accompanied by
additional Bed and Breakfast hotel surfing, accounting for more than half of Local Housing Allowance as just unprecedented peacetime levels of
placement accounting for half of this (110,000 households or individuals). noted. In the longer term, the largest economic stimulation and, notably,
change. The latter, therefore, rose Next in numerical importance was projected impact on reducing core the various job ‘furlough’ schemes.
from some 8,000 to some 11,000 over hostel and similar accommodation homelessness would result from a The first Coronavirus Job Retention
the period – a 40 per cent increase. (42,000), followed by unsuitable large expansion of total and social Scheme, introduced in April 2020,
housing supply (accompanied by the met 80 per cent of a furloughed
5 The core homelessness concept was introduced in research undertaken with Crisis in 2017 and updated maintenance of social housing quotas employee’s salary up to £2,500 per
in 2018, with this Monitor representing a further major update. Bramley, G. (2017) Homelessness
Projections: Core homelessness in Great Britain. Summary Report. London: Crisis. https://www.crisis.org.
for core homeless households), the month (with the Government funding
uk/media/237582/crisis_homelessness_projections_2017.pdf; and Bramley, G. (2019) Housing Supply
Requirements across Great Britain for Low-Income Households and Homeless People: Research for Crisis 6 See Fitzpatrick, S., Bramley, G., Blenkinsopp, J., Wood, J., Sosenko, F., Littlewood, M., Johnsen, S., Watts,
and the National Housing Federation; Main Technical Report. Edinburgh: Heriot-Watt University. https://doi. B., Treanor, M., & McIntyre, J. (2020) Destitution in the UK 2020. York: JRF. https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/
org/10.17861/bramley.2019.04 destitution-uk-2020xx The homelessness monitor: England 2021 Executive Summary xxi
75 per cent of this cost). The scheme 2020 Summer Statement reaffirming letter instructed all local authorities in under Everyone In did not return to the
was extended until the end of March, planned housing investment as England to move everyone sleeping streets in winter.17 Various other smaller
and then, in December, the Chancellor announced earlier in the year. The rough and in communal shelters into pots of funding targeted at rough
announced a further extension until Affordable Homes Programme will be a safe place, ideally in self-contained sleeping were announced over the
the end of April 2021. By the end of worth £12.2 billion over the five years accommodation, over the following course of the year, to operate alongside
October, the scheme had supported to 2025/26, with annual spending two days.12 Over 90 per cent of pre-existing funding streams targeting
almost 10 million (9.9 m) jobs at a cost rising by a quarter from £1.95 billion people sleeping rough known to homelessness, including the third
of £46.4 billion.7 The initial furlough in 2020/21 to an average of £2.44 Councils at the beginning of the crisis year of the Rough Sleepers Initiative
scheme was also, according to our billion.8 However, the new Affordable were reported to have been offered programme, amounting to £112million
local authority survey, crucial in Housing Programme differs from its accommodation in commercial hotels, in 2020/21. In the Spending Review on
mitigating homelessness risks during predecessors in some important ways: Bed and Breakfasts, holiday lets, 25th November, the Chancellor made
the COVID-19 crisis: 80 per cent of in particular, it shifts funding away university accommodation or housing available further new monies (£151
respondents considered it ‘very’ or from renting and towards ownership association stock, many of whom million) for local authorities to spend
‘somewhat’ important in this regard. by reverting to a roughly 50:50 split had been sleeping on the streets for on rough sleeping in 2021-22.
between these tenures.9 years. By autumn 2020, around 33,000
Lockdown brought the housing market people had been assisted under these Notable by its absence, at the outset
to a halt, whilst the wider economic Access to long-term housing was the ‘Everyone In’ arrangements.13 of the COVID-19 crisis, was any notion
dislocation brought fears of mass capacity challenge most widely seen of a purely ‘localist’ approach to
evictions and mortgage possessions. as having been posed (or emphasised) This Everyone In initiative was assisting the homeless population:18
The Government acted to protect by the pandemic by local authorities preceded by £3.2 million targeted instead, strong, decisive and hands-
tenants and mortgaged owners from in our national online survey. Some 61 funding to local authorities to support on leadership was offered by central
eviction during the pandemic by per cent of local authority respondents people sleeping rough and those Government and received and acted
introducing compulsory and blanket considered that their authority was at risk, alongside £4.6 billion un- upon by Councils and other local
forbearance on the part of landlords poorly or otherwise inadequately ringfenced funds14 to help councils stakeholders with a sense of urgency
and mortgage lenders. For renters, equipped to deal with the crisis in cope with the overall financial and collective endeavour. While this
forbearance relied on two main this respect. Among the minority of pressures of the pandemic.15 On 24th weakened over time, as discussed
mechanisms. First, legal proceedings authorities where it became easier to May the Government announced below, homeless people were, by and
were halted and sometimes access social rental tenancies during that it was to bring forward £161 large, kept safe in in the early stages of
enforcement action suspended. the pandemic, explanatory responses million out of an (increased) £433 the pandemic. Levels of infection and
Second, notice periods have been related in the main to amended million four-year budget to provide COVID-related deaths have been kept
extended to six months until at least housing association or council 6,000 new supported housing units low amongst this highly vulnerable
the end of March 2021 in the majority allocation policies that gave increased for ex-rough sleepers, with 3,300 population, so far at least, indicating a
of cases (with exceptions for anti-social or overwhelming priority to homeless of these units to become available successful public health strategy.19
behaviour and fraud). In this year’s households, usually for a time limited over the next 12 months.16 On 24th
national online survey, 87 per cent period. June, it was announced that £105 Other crucial factors in mitigating the
of responding Councils considered million would be made available for impact of COVID-19 on homeless
the evictions moratorium to have As reported in the Homelessness interim accommodation to ensure people included substantial additional
been ‘very important’ in preventing or Monitor England 2020: COVID-19 that those currently being assisted resources, radically improved
minimising homelessness in their area. Crisis Response Briefing,10 (July 2020),
the pandemic prompted a radical and 12 Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (2020) Coronavirus (COVID-19): Letter from
Notably, however, the Chancellor rapid nation-wide shift in responses Minister Hall to Local Authorities on Plans to Protect Rough Sleepers. Online: MHCLG. https://www.gov.uk/
government/publications/letter-from-minister-hall-to-local-authorities
chose not to increase the supply of to some of the most extreme forms 13 Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (2020) Coronavirus (COVID-19) Emergency
new affordable housing as part of the of homelessness with a remarkable Accommodation Survey Data: November 2020. Online: MHCLG. https://www.gov.uk/government/
Government’s COVID-19 stimulus degree of success and speed.11 On publications/coronavirus-covid-19-emergency-accommodation-survey-data-november-2020
14 As at October 2020 National Audit Office (2021) Investigation into the Housing of Rough Sleepers During
package, in contrast to the response 26th March, a Ministry of Housing,
the Pandemic. London: NAO
to the 2008 financial crisis, with his Communities and Local Government 15 National Audit Office (2021) Investigation into the Housing of Rough Sleepers During the Pandemic.
London: NAO
16 Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (2020) 6,000 New Supported Homes as Part
7 Gov.UK (2020) HMRC Coronavirus (COVID-19) statistics, last updated 17 December. Online: Gov.UK https:// of Landmark Commitment to End Rough Sleeping. Online: MHCLG. https://www.gov.uk/government/
www.gov.uk/government/statistics/coronavirus-job-retention-scheme-statistics-december-2020 news/6000-new-supported-homes-as-part-of-landmark-commitment-to-end-rough-sleeping
8 Perry, J. (2020) ‘Building back better? Post-Covid housing programmes’, in Stephens, M. et. al. (eds) UK 17 Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (2020) £105 Million to keep Rough Sleepers
Housing Review Autumn Briefing. Coventry: CIH Safe and off the Streets During Coronavirus Pandemic. Online: MHCLG. https://www.gov.uk/government/
9 Ibid. news/105-million-to-keep-rough-sleepers-safe-and-off-the-streets-during-coronavirus-pandemic
10 Fitzpatrick, S., Watts, B. & Sims, R. (2020) Homelessness Monitor England 2020: COVID-19 Crisis Response 18 Fitzpatrick, S., Pawson, H. & Watts, B. (2020) 'The limits of localism: a decade of disaster on homelessness
Briefing. London: Crisis. https://www.crisis.org.uk/ending-homelessness/homelessness-knowledge-hub/ in England', Policy and Politics, 48(4), 541-561. https://doi.org/10.1332/030557320X15857338944387
homelessness-monitor/england/homelessness-monitor-england-2020-covid-19-crisis-response-briefing/ 19 Lewer, D., Braithwaite, I., Bullock, M., Eyre, M.T., White, P.J., Aldridge, R.W., Story, A. & Hayward, A.C. (2020)
11 See also National Audit Office (2021) Investigation into the Housing of Rough Sleepers During the Pandemic. ‘Covid amongst people experiencing homelessness in England: a modelling study’, The Lancet, 8(12), 1181-
London: NAO 1191. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30396-9/fulltext#seccestitle70xxii The homelessness monitor: England 2021 Executive Summary xxiii
collaborative working (especially both local authorities and key accommodation of non-United of the senior homelessness experts
between health and homelessness informants raised concerns about the Kingdom nationals ineligible for we interviewed mid-pandemic.
services), and a workforce that adapted deleterious impacts on homelessness benefits and the continuation of Interestingly, the local authority
swiftly to a wholly unprecedented if enhancements to Local Housing Everyone In, became a matter of survey also indicated that only a very
challenge. While local authorities Allowance and Universal Credit were acute concern for Local Authorities small number of councils expected
generally gave an upbeat assessment not sustained in the longer-term, and their third sector partners as the to continue to use dormitory-style
of their own performance in response about the failure to uprate ‘legacy’ crisis progressed. It also resulted in provision post-pandemic. However,
to homelessness during the COVID-19 benefits such as Income Support,20 growing variation in local authority given the high-profile Government
crisis, it was clear that the resilience and the offsetting effect of the Total practice across the country as the commitment to ‘end’ rough sleeping
of both staff and resources had been Benefit Cap on the Local Housing year progressed, notwithstanding a by 2024, fears were expressed by some
severely tested, with the National Audit Allowance uplift in particular. change in the Homelessness Code of key informants that communal shelter
Office remarking that many councils Guidance advising local authorities provision, or at least more congregate-
were surprised by the sheer scale of Moreover, the official homelessness to respond sympathetically to those style hostels, might be expanded to
need that Everyone In uncovered. The statistics for April-June 2020 capture made vulnerable as a result of the help meet this target. Furthermore, the
large amount of emergency funding the dramatic impact of the evictions pandemic.22 The protections offered speed with which the capital budget
made available by central Government ban, with the number of homeless to those in asylum accommodation, in the Next Steps programme was
to respond to homelessness during the households assisted as a result of the for example, has also weakened in the required to be spent was argued as
pandemic was widely acknowledged ending of private and social tenancies second and third COVID lockdowns. undermining the ability to deploy these
by key informants, but the proliferation plummeting, while cases associated resources strategically and, potentially,
of highly specified, short-term funding with family and friend exclusions Key informants pointed to the strong opening up the danger of damaging
pots was viewed as less than strategic, or domestic violence remained foundations laid by the Rough Sleepers new ‘path dependencies’ associated
with rapid turnaround bidding steady. The suspension of evictions Initiative and the Homelessness with hasty investments in inappropriate
processes layering further stress onto from asylum accommodation, and Reduction Act in enabling a more forms of accommodation.
struggling local authorities. easement of restrictions on support for effective response to COVID-19
people originally from the European than might otherwise have been Conclusion
Supportive wider changes to welfare Economic Area who are not in the case, particularly with regards to The sharp disjuncture represented
policy were also vital in protecting employment,21 were humanitarian single homeless people. That said, by the catastrophe of the COVID-19
homeless people and other low- interventions that also likely saved the Homelessness Reduction Act pandemic opens up an opportunity to
income groups during the crisis. In lives, or at least immense suffering. received only qualified endorsement reflect on the shape of homelessness
particular, the raising of the Local from local authority respondents with services in the future, and in particular
Housing Allowance maximum to cover It is striking that, despite the scale and regard to the role it played during the the future role of congregate models
the 30th percentile of private rents apparent success of the Everyone In pandemic; those who were positive of accommodation, especially that
was considered ‘very’ or ‘somewhat’ initiative, enumerated levels of rough pointed to its pivot towards earlier employing dormitory-style shared
important in mitigating homelessness sleeping in London, as captured in forms of intervention, while the (very sleeping provision. On the more
risks by 82 per cent of local authorities the CHAIN dataset, did not alter much small) minority who were singularly immediate horizon, a pressing
in our national survey, while the during 2020, with new rough sleepers critical flagged what they perceived as priority remains effective move-on
corresponding percentage was even spiking during the most active excessive bureaucracy associated with arrangements for people temporarily
almost as high (74%) with regard to phase of Everyone In (April-June specified operational procedures and accommodated during the COVID-19
the temporary suspension of benefit 2020). However, the extent to which statistical monitoring. crisis, especially those with No
sanctions. Around two-thirds of all these statistics reflect 'real' patterns Recourse to Public Funds who, by
local authority respondents (66-68%) in levels of rough sleeping over the One striking point to emerge during autumn 2020, comprised around half
considered additional Local Welfare course of this extraordinary year, as the pandemic was the extent to of the population accommodated in
Assistance funding, enhancement of opposed to variations in the intensity which dormitory-style shelters have London under ‘Everyone In’.
Universal Credit standard allowances of outreach activity and data capture, continued in use to accommodate
(by £20 per week), and the temporary is difficult to judge homeless people in at least some parts The 2022 Homelessness Monitor
suspension of (most) debt-related of England. Over half (52%) of local England will be able to assess the
benefit deductions, as likewise However, subsequent ‘mixed authorities reported at least some success or otherwise of efforts to
important in preventing or minimising messages’ from central Government, homelessness accommodation of this resolve the predicament of these
homelessness in their area. However, particularly with regard to the type in their area pre-pandemic, albeit vulnerable migrants, as well as to
often confined to winter or extreme stem the potential tidal wave of ‘new’
20 Child Poverty Action Group (2020) Supporting Families During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Online: CPAG. weather conditions. A decisive shift homelessness expected as the COVID-
https://cpag.org.uk/policy-and-campaigns/briefing/supporting-families-during-covid-19-pandemic
21 Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (2020) Letter from Minister for Rough Sleeping
away from the use of night shelters 19-induced recession takes hold, Brexit
on Funding for Emergency Accommodation During the Pandemic, and Support for EEA Rough Sleepers. was, unsurprisingly, a priority of many causes disruption to trade and various
Online: MHCLG. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-letter-from-
minister-hall-to-local-authorities-on-funding-support-for-those-in-emergency-accommodation-and-
eea-rough-sleepers 22 See https://www.gov.uk/guidance/homelessness-code-of-guidance-for-local-authorities/updatesxxiv The homelessness monitor: England 2021 1. Introduction 1
temporary labour market, welfare and
housing protections are scaled back
or ended. More positively, it should
also enable reflection on the extent
1. Introduction
to which opportunities to ‘build back
better’ are starting to materialise in the
post-pandemic era.
Longer-term, a key factor in
determining economic prospects 1.1 Introduction of the recent history of homelessness
and the level of social protection is This study provides an independent in England should consult with the
whether the Government returns to a analysis of the impact on homelessness previous Homelessness Monitors for
policy of austerity in order to reduce from recent economic and policy England, which are available on Crisis's
the levels of debt built up as a result developments in England. It considers website.24 Parallel Homelessness
of COVID-19. The lesson of the last 10 both the consequences of the post- Monitors are being published for other
years is that this will be of fundamental 2007 economic and housing market parts of the United Kingdom (UK).
importance to determining the context recession, and the subsequent recovery,
of homelessness over the next decade. and also the impact of policy changes 1.2 Scope of report
implemented under the Conservative- There is a great deal of debate on
Liberal Democrat Coalition the most appropriate definition of
Government (2010-2015), and the post homelessness, with stakeholders
May 2015 Conservative Governments often disagreeing vigorously on where
under Prime Ministers David Cameron, the boundary should lie between
Theresa May and Boris Johnson. ‘homelessness’ and other forms
of housing need.25 In order for this
This ninth annual report provides report to be as comprehensive and
an account of how homelessness inclusive as possible, we adopt a range
stands in England in 2020 (or as of definitions or ‘perspectives’ on
close to 2020 as data availability will homelessness, considering the impacts
allow), and analyses key trends in of relevant policy and economic
the period running up to 2020. This changes on the following (partially
year's report focuses in particular overlapping) groups:
on what has changed over the past
year, with a particular focus on the • ‘Statutorily homeless households’:
impacts associated with the COVID-19 that is, households who seek or
pandemic. Note that a Homelessness receive housing assistance from
Monitor England 2020: COVID-19 Crisis local authorities (LAs) on grounds of
Response Briefing23 has already been being currently or imminently without
published, in July 2020, to capture accommodation.
key homelessness developments
during the initial lockdown period. We •P
eople experiencing ‘core
also for the first time this year, in this homelessness’:26 this refers to
main Homelessness Monitor report, households who are currently
provide an analysis which projects experiencing the most acute forms
homelessness trends in England into of homelessness. It includes people
the future. in the following situations: rough
Readers who would like a fuller account sleeping; sleeping in cars, tents and
23 Fitzpatrick, S., Watts, B. & Sims, R. (2020) Homelessness Monitor England 2020: COVID-19 Crisis Response
Briefing. London: Crisis. https://www.crisis.org.uk/ending-homelessness/homelessness-knowledge-hub/
homelessness-monitor/england/homelessness-monitor-england-2020-covid-19-crisis-response-briefing/
24 See http://www.crisis.org.uk/pages/homelessnessmonitor.html
25 Busch-Geertsema, V., Culhane, D. & Fitzpatrick, S. (2016) ‘Developing a global framework for
conceptualising and measuring homelessness’, Habitat International, 55, 124-132. https://www.
sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0197397515300023?via=ihub
26 Bramley, G. (2017) Homelessness Projections: Core homelessness in Great Britain. Summary Report.
London: Crisis. https://www.crisis.org.uk/media/237582/crisis_homelessness_projections_2017.pdf2 The homelessness monitor: England 2021 1. Introduction 3
public transport, unlicensed squatting, •F
ourth, for the fifth Homelessness Theoretical, historical and international 1.5 Structure of report
or occupation of non-residential Monitor report in a row we have perspectives indicate that the causation The structure of this year’s
buildings; staying in hostels, refuges conducted a bespoke online survey of homelessness is multi-dimensional, Homelessness Monitor report differs
and shelters; living in ‘unsuitable’ of England’s 314 LAs (in summer/ with no single ‘trigger’ that is either somewhat to that of previous reports.
temporary accommodation (TA) (e.g., autumn 2020). The main aim of this ‘necessary’ or ‘sufficient’ for it to occur. Chapter 2 reviews the wider context
Bed and Breakfast (B&B)); sofa-surfing particular survey was to understand Individual, interpersonal and structural for homelessness, including economic,
(i.e., staying with non-family, on a how the housing, social security, factors all play a role – and interact with poverty and labour market trends,
short-term basis, in overcrowded labour market and other COVID-19 each other – and the balance of causes housing market developments, and
conditions). related policy responses were differs over time, across countries, and social security policy changes: all of
impacting on homelessness trends between demographic groups. this heavily impacted by responses to
1.3 Research methods and responses at local level. In all, 148 the COVID-19 crisis. Chapter 3 shifts
To date, five main methods have been (47%) of all LAs in England responded With respect to the main structural focus to homelessness-specific policies
employed in this longitudinal study: to the survey with a very even spread factors, international comparative and practices at national and local
across all broad regions. Note that, research, and the experience of level, including in direct response to
•F
irst, relevant literature, legal and in order to achieve this high survey previous UK recessions, suggests that the pandemic. Chapter 4 provides a
policy documents are reviewed each response rate, amid the extraordinary housing market trends and policies fully updated analysis of the available
year. crisis conditions engendered by the have the most direct impact on levels statistical data on the current scale of
pandemic, a much lengthier time of homelessness, with the influence and recent trends in homelessness in
•S
econd, we undertake annual window for responses was allowed of labour-market change more likely England. For the first time this analysis
interviews with a sample of key than we would normally offer (from to be lagged and diffuse, and strongly is substantially based on the operation
informants from the statutory and mid-July to mid October 2020). mediated by welfare arrangements and of the Homelessness Reduction
voluntary sectors across England. This variability in the precise timing other contextual factors. The central Act (HRA) 2017, in force from 1st
The current sample of 15 key of survey responses is taken into role that poverty plays in shaping April 2018. This chapter also reviews
informants includes representatives account in the interpretation of the homelessness risks in the UK is also data associated with the COVID-19
of homelessness service providers, as results that we offer, especially in light now well established.30 prompted homelessness initiatives, led
well as other key stakeholders with of the rapid nature of policy change by Government and implemented by
a national overview of relevant areas over this period. See Appendix 2 for The individual vulnerabilities, support Local Authorities and their voluntary
of policy and practice. Some of these details. needs, and ‘risk taking’ behaviours sector partners. Chapter 5 provides
participants were interviewed in the implicated in some people’s estimates of the current scale of
spring of 2020,27 during the initial •F
ifth, for the first time in this homelessness are themselves often, core homelessness in England, while
COVID-19 lockdown, and others in Homelessness Monitor series, we though not always, also rooted in the Chapter 6 projects trends in these
autumn 2020,28 as the second wave incorporate a statistical modelling pressures associated with poverty and forms of homelessness into the future.
of the pandemic took hold. See exercise which both estimates other forms of structural disadvantage. All of these chapters are informed
Appendix 1 for the basic topic guide ‘core’ forms of homelessness, and At the same time, the ‘anchor’ social by the insights derived from our in-
used to structure these interviews, projects trends in these forms of relationships which can act as a primary depth interviews with key informants
though note that this guide was homelessness into the future. See ‘buffer’ to homelessness, can conducted in 2020, and from the
tailored for each interviewee and Appendix 3 for technical details. be put under considerable strain by statistical and qualitative information
adjusted appropriately between the stressful financial circumstances. Thus, gleaned from this year's online survey
spring and autumn interviews. 1.4 Causation and homelessness deteriorating economic conditions of LAs. In Chapter 7 we summarise the
All of the Homelessness Monitors in England could also be expected main findings of this year's report.
•T
hird, we undertake detailed statistical are underpinned by a conceptual to generate more ‘individual’ and Each edition of the Monitor adopts a
analysis on a) relevant economic framework on the causation of ‘interpersonal’ vulnerabilities to particular theme. This year, for obvious
and social trends in England; and homelessness that has been used homelessness over time, with any reasons, the Monitor is primarily
b) the scale, nature and trends to inform our interpretation of the improvement in such conditions concerned with the repercussions
in homelessness amongst the likely impacts of economic and policy tending to have the reverse effect. of the COVID-19 crisis for homeless
sub‑groups noted above. change.29 The longer-term structural, social, people, both now and in the future.
economic and health effects of
COVID-19 are, of course, yet to emerge.
27 The spring 2020 interviews were drawn upon in the July 2020 Briefing Paper, see Fitzpatrick, S., Watts, B. &
Sims, R. (2020) Homelessness Monitor England 2020: COVID-19 Crisis Response Briefing. London: Crisis.
https://www.crisis.org.uk/ending-homelessness/homelessness-knowledge-hub/homelessness-monitor/
england/homelessness-monitor-england-2020-covid-19-crisis-response-briefing/
28 We are particularly grateful to two interviewees who allowed us to interview them twice – in spring and
again in autumn 2020 – in order to update us on how responses to the pandemic had unfolded over the
course of the year.
29 For a more detailed account of this conceptual framework please consult with Chapter 2 in the first
Homelessness Monitor: Fitzpatrick, S., Pawson, H., Bramley, G. & Wilcox, S. (2011) The Homelessness 30 Bramley, B. & Fitzpatrick, S. (2018) ‘Homelessness in the UK: who is most at risk?’, Housing Studies, 33:1,
Monitor: Tracking the Impacts of Policy and Economic Change in England 2011-2013. London: Crisis. 96-116.You can also read
