The Wild Wild West Alberta Independence Movement - ssuns

The Wild Wild West
Alberta Independence Movement

Land Acknowledgement
McGill University is situated on the traditional territory of the Kanien’kehá: ka, a place which
has long served as a site of meeting and exchange amongst many First Nations including the
Kanien’kehá: ka of the Haudenosaunee Confederacy, Huron/Wendat, Abenaki, and
Anishinaabeg. We recognize and respect the Kanien’kehá: ka as the traditional custodians of the
lands and waters on which McGill resides.
In the 15th and 16th Centuries, European nations discovered the Americas and quickly began
their settlements. This was the beginning of the colonization of Indigenous Peoples across these
two continents and led to the greatest genocide the world has ever witnessed. For over 500 years
Indigenous Peoples have been the subject of extreme discrimination and racism, facing atrocities
from ethnic cleansing to assimilation to cultural segregation. It is imperative that we actively
work to educate ourselves on Indigenous history so we may properly understand the context of
our current geo-political situation and hold the tools necessary to help progress reconciliation
efforts.

It is important that as the conference begins this coming November that you, wherever you may
be, take a moment to acknowledge the traditional stewards of the land that you are on and
understand the importance of not only this acknowledgement but of understanding and
appreciating the critical nature of remembering Indigenous history around the world.
It is also important to understand that an acknowledgement is not enough, and not where we
should top. In order to achieve reconciliation, every person must be dedicated to recognizing the
atrocities enacted by Euro-centric settlers, the long-lasting impact that colonization has had on
Indigenous communities and Peoples, and actively working to rectify the situation. Remember to
make space for Indigenous Peoples voices and to always accept and respect the opinion and
experiences of Indigenous Peoples.

Letter from the Deputy USG Committees, Crisis
Dear Delegates,

I am excited to welcome each of you to the 29th edition of the Secondary Schools’ United
Nations Symposium (SSUNS). My name is Xavier Palmer and I am thrilled to be serving as the
Deputy Undersecretary-General for Crisis Committees. I have been involved in Model UN for 4
years now, having staffed the last three iterations of both our University-level conference,
McMUN, and SSUNS. Throughout my time at McGill, Model UN has provided me with ample
opportunities to learn and grow while also connecting me with some of my closest friends. I
hope that you all are able to experience this during SSUNS 2021!

For the past several months, the entire SSUNS team has been working without pause to create
the committees that you will be exploring and events you will be participating in during the
conference. It is my hope that you will find the debate both engaging and stimulating. Alongside
Anya Narang, Deputy for General Assemblies and ECOSOCS, Matthias Hoenisch, Deputy for
Specialised Agencies, and our Undersecretary-General for Committee Affairs, Joshua Hill, I am
pleased to introduce your background guide! This guide will provide you with a brief
introduction to the topics and settings you will be engaging with this November, but it is not
meant to serve as your only source of information. I encourage you to search for additional
resources and do your own research—if you need a place to start, you can look at the References
and Further Reading section of this background guide!

I look forward to meeting you all this November! If you have any questions about the
conference, please feel free to contact me at crises@ssuns.org!

Best,

Xavier Palmer

Table of Contents
Table of Contents                                        1
Note of Specialized ROPs                                 2
The Build Up                                             2
   A History of Albertan Politics                        2
   From 2021 onwards                                    11
The Here and Now                                        14
   Major Political Parties                              14
      Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta            15
      Alberta New Democratic Party (NDP)                15
      United Conservative Party                         16
      Alberta Party                                     16
      Green Party of Alberta                            17
The Way Forward                                         17
   Secession                                            17
   Taxation                                             18
   Generational and Geographical Divides                22
   Questions to Consider                                24
Bibliography                                            25

Note of Specialized ROPs
        Before we start, we would like to give all delegates some information about this

committee’s unique Rules of Procedure. Because our committee will take place in such a

volatile time, we will be introducing “cabinet shuffles”. As you will see, some delegates are

assigned cabinet positions at the start of the committee. To help spread the power evenly

throughout the conference, we will be having cabinet shuffles where delegates will randomly

be reassigned to cabinet positions already in committee as well as any new positions that may

be added in. We will also allow backroom arcs that trigger snap elections or try to allow a

delegate to gain a different cabinet position in committee during a cabinet shuffle. Get ready

for an unpredictable weekend!

The Build Up
A History of Albertan Politics

        To most of Canada, Alberta seems to be a monolithic stronghold of conservative

values. However,in this collection of conservatism, there is a wide variety of viewpoints and

perspectives that create a very multifaceted, dynamic political scene that isn’t as uniformly

conservative as it seems from the surface.1 At its birth, “Alberta was actually considered to be

the most radical, left-wing jurisdiction in the British Empire,” according to Tom Flanagan, a

retired political scientist with the University of Calgary.2 Although Albertan political parties

often ruled in dynastic succession, there have been policies from many political extremes. To

truly get an understanding of the nature of Albertan Politics, we will be covering the history,

as well as the major themes consistently found in Albertan government.

        Our story starts on September 1, 1905. On this day, the Province of Alberta was

officially birthed, along with Saskatchewan, from the North-West Territories, giving Canada
1
  Bratt and Foster, “OPINION | UCP Caucus Revolt Latest in a Long History of Splintering
Conservative Parties in Alberta | CBC News.”
2
  Gerson, “The Great Myth of Alberta Conservatism | The Walrus.”

its eighth and ninth province3. These provinces were created by the federal Liberal

government to undermine the Conservative Party and maintain greater political control of

Canada. This became apparent when the Liberal Party of Alberta, led under Alexander

Rutherford, won 22 of the 25 seats in the legislature. The Conservatives only under R.B.

Bennett won only 3 seats (If you know your Canadian History, Bennett would later become

Prime Minister during the Great Depression).4

        Even though the Liberals would dominate the next three elections, their grip on

Albertan politics would steadily decline over time due to a variety of factors. First,

Rutherford had attempted to build a railway across Alberta, but he paid the private companies

who were tasked with building the railroad substantially more than the actual cost of

construction. Additionally, he provided insufficient governmental oversight of the railway

operations.5 Public outrage over this scandal forced him to resign in 1910 and fractured the

Alberta Liberal Party6. Second in 1916, led in part by Alberta’s Famous Five, women won the

right to vote in Alberta’s provincial elections,This significantly changed the electoral

demographic of the province. Third, Alberta’s demographics were rapidly shifting. Through

the turn of the century, immigrants from America began flowing into Alberta. In the first

decade of the twentieth century, while Canada’s population grew by 34 percent, Alberta’s

grew a whopping 413 percent. This was driven mainly by Americans emigrating to Wild

Rose Country.7 Although there were Canadian and British immigrants, there were far fewer,

and mainly settled in Edmonton, Calgary, and Northern Alberta. In fact, Alberta was the only

province where Canadian or European-born individuals were a minority.The majority of

American immigrants in Alberta came from the rural Midwest and Great Plain states. From

capitalists and whisky smugglers to cattle ranchers and coal miners, these American

3
  Gerson.
4
  “A Look at Every Alberta Election since the Province Was Created in 1905.”
5
  “A Look at Every Alberta Election since the Province Was Created in 1905.”
6
  “A Look at Every Alberta Election since the Province Was Created in 1905.”
7
  Wiseman, “THE AMERICAN IMPRINT ON ALBERTA POLITICS.”

immigrants settled overwhelmingly in southern rural Alberta. 8 Along with their culture (they

are the reason why cowboys and rodeo are so prevalent in Alberta, and why Calgary is also

known as “Cowtown”) they also brought with them their politics: a blend of radical populism

and liberal-individualism. This caused Alberta’s attitude towards the rest of Canada to change

rapidly. The federal Liberal Government saw the Prairies as a sort of colony within a

colony— it was a resource rich territory that was responsible for supplying industrialized

eastern Canada with raw materials and resources. Everything was created to benefit the East,

from trade policy and the banking system in the Prairies to the freight rates set by the

Canadian Pacific Railway.9 Because of this, Albertans were becoming increasingly

disillusioned with the Liberals, both provincially and federally, and became increasingly

resentful of Central Canada (this will be a very common theme in Alberta politics). So, in

1921, a group of collectivist farmers known as The United Farmers of Alberta won the

provincial election surprising many. 11 years later in 1932 the Co-operative Commonwealth

Federation—which would later become the modern NDP- was founded in Calgary.10

                                    Figure 1: The Calgary Stampede

8
  Wiseman.
9
  Gerson, “The Great Myth of Alberta Conservatism | The Walrus.”
10
   Gerson.

But around this time, the Great Depression was in full swing, and being an

agricultural province, Albertans were struggling hard. In response to this, Albertans did

something radical: They voted in the Social Credit Party led by William “Bible Bill”

Aberhart.11 Although this party was deeply religious and seeked to “evoke Jesus through

economics,”12 the party was very far left, not far right as people might assume. The Socreds,

as they were known, introduced a new monetary system that would grant citizens the capital

from their productive labour, issued a universal basic income through a dividend known as

“prosperity certificates,” and attempted to nationalize all banks in Alberta. 13 This, infamously,

led Alberta to default on its debts, but even with the financial difficulties Alberta was facing

the Socreds won the next election.

        Unfortunately, (or fortunately, depending on how you view it) Aberhart died in 1943,

and he was succeeded by the great Ernest Manning, one of the longest serving Premiers in

Canadian history. While Aberhart brought the party to the economic left, Manning brought

the party to the economic right. He began privatizing industry and prioritizing policies that

would deregulate and make the market more free. He also inherited the premiership at a very

opportune time. World War II helped kickstart the Canadian economy, and in 1947, the first

of many big oilfields was discovered in Leduc, Alberta. 14 The discovery of oil and the

leadership of Manning helped pull Alberta out of debt, and into prosperity. Alberta went from

one of the poorest provinces in Canada to the richest almost all thanks to oil. Taxes were low,

social spending was high, and Manning was finally able to follow through on Aberhart’s

promise to give every citizen in Alberta Prosperity Certificates. 15

11
   “A Look at Every Alberta Election since the Province Was Created in 1905.”
12
   Gerson, “The Great Myth of Alberta Conservatism | The Walrus.”
13
   Gerson.
14
   Gerson.
15
   Gerson.

Figure 2: Ernest Manning

          But in 1968, after a 25 year reign, Manning unexpectedly resigned, and the Social

Credit Party quickly fell apart. The Socreds got crushed in the election of 1971, and the

Progressive Conservatives, led by the great Peter Lougheed, began a new era of Albertan

politics. 16 Lougheed was a lawyer and a Harvard graduate and unlike the Socreds, who had

grown increasingly conservative, Lougheed emphasized the Progressive part of the

Progressive Conservatives.17 Lougheed drastically increased resource royalty rates,

modernized Alberta’s laws, and greatly expanded the scope of government. He even

attempted to purchase an airline to provide low cost flights to all Albertans. But one of

Lougheed’s greatest legacies was his opposition to Pierre Elliott Trudeau’s National Energy

Program. In the 1970s, Canada was suffering from an oil crisis while Alberta was still

steadily producing and exporting oil. In an attempt to force Alberta to stop exporting oil and

instead send it to Central Canada, Trudeau passed the NEP. This created a very high export

tax on oil, forcing Alberta to sell oil to the east at a significant discount from the global price.

Many Albertans felt they were being treated like a storehouse to be plundered when the rest

16
     “A Look at Every Alberta Election since the Province Was Created in 1905.”
17
     Gerson, “The Great Myth of Alberta Conservatism | The Walrus.”

of Canada was in trouble.18 The NEP was estimated to have cost Alberta between $50 to $100

billion. This, combined with the great oil glut of the 1980s, caused a massive recession in

Alberta. Unemployment was high and bankruptcies were common, with the NEP being the

biggest driver of modern western alienation. Lougheed managed to win the election in 1982

before stepping down in 1985 when Don Getty became premier.

                                        Figure 3: Peter Lougheed

          Getty’s tenure was relatively uneventful and he stepped down in 1992 after a series of

major public gaffes. This is when Ralph Klein took the helm. Klein was premier from 1992 to

2006, and, for better or for worse, is another legend in Alberta politics. A former mayor of

Calgary, Klein was bombastic, charismatic and the textbook definition of the Albertan

stereotype. Klein always said what was on his mind, and was not afraid to tell it how it is—

particularly when it came to those “eastern bums and creeps''19. He eliminated provincial debt

but demolished an entire hospital to do so. Although he greatly reduced the size of

government, due to the success of oil, he was still able to invest in health and education. After

Klein stepped down, Ed Stelmach rose to power. However, faced with a recession that

crippled the budget, he was forced to step down leading to the rise of Alison Redford.

18
     Gerson.
19
     Gerson.

Although the Wildrose party—a far right conservative party founded in 2008—came

close to defeating the Redford and the Progressive Conservatives, a series of problematic

comments about religion, gay marriage, and climate change by their leader contributed to

their ultimate loss. Redford was able to hold onto the premiership, but soon became swamped

with spending scandals that forced her to step down. In 2014, most of the Wildrose party

crossed the floor and joined the Tories under the leadership of newly elected Jim Prentice.

The collapse of the Wildrose Party and Prentice’s ineptitude allowed the Alberta NDP, led by

the charismatic and intelligent Rachel Notely, to make history and win its first majority in

2015.20 Even though the provincial NDP was seen as a fringe party even back in the early

2010s, Notley was able to successfully prove that she was the best bet to carry on the

provincial tradition of pragmatic Prairie populism. However, in 2017, the Wildrose Party and

the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta put aside their differences and merged to form

the United Conservative Party, allowing them to win the 2019 Alberta election.

        Throughout the history of Alberta, there are some very common themes and trends

that emerge. First, Alberta is the newest province, not only politically, but also culturally, in

Canada.21 It is therefore more receptive to populist ideas in the purest sense of the word.

Albertan politics derives its power from the bottom up, and its governments tend to be

pragmatic and more receptive to the will of the people. Unlike Central Canada, where there

are rich, well established families with ‘old money,’ Alberta does not have a well established

upper class with immense political power, so normal people have more influence in Alberta

politics. Albertans are also not wedded to old ideas or parties, thus Alberta remains open to

political reinvention where new movements can quickly and effectively take over. 22

20
   “A Look at Every Alberta Election since the Province Was Created in 1905.”
21
   Bratt and Foster, “OPINION | UCP caucus revolt latest in a long history of splintering conservative
parties in Alberta | CBC News”
22
   Brant and Foster.

The second key takeaway is that because Alberta’s governing parties are usually

stable and able to hold power for long periods of time, internal disagreements often hold

considerable weight and can easily fracture the governing party. Conservative parties can

sustain electoral dominance so opponents are often found within the same party. This often

leads to divisions and the formation of new parties before they merge when challenged by an

external force. The constant spintering and reforming of conservative parties in Alberta adds

a sense of dynamism and has been a consistent feature of provincial politics throughout

Alberta’s history. Conservative parties contain numerous fault lines—from the urban/rural

divide to ideology to forms of conservatism to government structure—which can very easily

break and cause yet another fracture.23

          Another important thing to note is that Alberta isn’t as conservative as its stereotype

paints it out to be. Albertans are as likely to elect a far right party like the Wildrose as they

are likely to elect Naheed Nenshi, the former progressive mayor of Calgary, or Rachel

Notley’s NDP. As seen from Aberhart to Lougheed, Albertans love high quality social

services and big government spending projects. Alberta simply does not like paying taxes or

being told what to do by the Federal Government as they are often seen as being in the

pockets of Central Canada and against Albertan interests. Alberta has the same beliefs for

most social issues as the rest of Anglo-Canada and has been getting progressively more

progressive over the years. Alberta’s tendency to vote in conservative governments is not due

to social and fiscal conservatism, but instead a strong dislike of Ottawa.24

          This brings me to my last and most important point: Alberta always feels alienated

from the federation. Throughout Alberta’s history, it has always been at the whims of the

federal government and has been seen as a province to exploit in favour of power brokers

elsewhere. This is why there is so much anger towards the East and the constant desire to

23
     Brant and Foster.
24
     Gerson, “The Great Myth of Alberta Conservatism | The Walrus.”

separate. Alberta was created to help increase power for the governing party, and was seen as

a supplier of raw resources for the well-industrialized east. It was seen as a spring of oil that

the rest of Canada could use for cheap energy, and is currently seen as a cash cow and

consistent source of revenue for the federal government. Alberta constantly feels like it needs

to defend its economic and political interests in a federation where it is constantly ridiculed

and pushed around. Sometimes the constant barrage from the rest of Canada is too much, and

Alberta starts to blow up. Alberta is like a balloon that is about to pop. If there’s a way

through which it can slowly and steadily release its anger, it can be controlled, but if nothing

is done, it will pop—and its blow up may be a lot more dangerous than one would think.

Albertan independence is arguably more dangerous than Quebec separation: with Quebec

separation, you could use an economic argument that they would be worse off if they

separate—in Alberta, as they give so much federally, if they separate, they would see more

tax revenue stay within the province.25 Alberta separatism is not a new phenomenon, it is an

idea that has been with the province since its birth, waiting for the moment when the pressure

gets too big and it pops. This is exactly what the setting will be at the start of this committee.

From 2021 onwards

        In the year 2023, Rachel Notley and the Alberta NDP managed to get a commanding

victory over Jason Kenney and the UCP. Due to Kenney’s poor management, and the distrust

of the vaccine among rural Albertans, the COVID-19 pandemic has become endemic and has

left large scars on the population and economy with constant reactive lockdowns and

mandatory mask mandates angering the large population of Albertans who are anti-mask.

This anger against Kenney and the UCP has allowed Notley and the NDP to once again take

power in Alberta. Thanks to highly effective educational programs and a comprehensive

25
  Bratt and Foster, “OPINION | UCP caucus revolt latest in a long history of splintering conservative
parties in Alberta | CBC News”

contact tracing system, the NDP were able to practically eliminate COVID-19 from the

general population by 2025, as well as successfully remedy the disastrous K-to-12 curriculum

passed by the UCP, undo the budget cuts to hospitals and post secondary institutions, and

continue their diversification strategy away from oil. Even with the devastating loss of the

election, Jason Kenney refused to resign from his leadership position, causing Alberta’s

conservative party to once again break up into two, the United Conservative Party and the

Conservative Populist Party (CPP). The UCP moved to the left after the splinter, becoming

right of center with its main political base being towns such as Grande Prairie and the suburbs

surrounding Calgary, such as Airdrie, while all the far right conservatives flocked to the CPP,

who’s stronghold is rural Alberta. But with the cities getting more seats as well as

increasingly progressive, and with the conservative vote divided between the UCP and the

CPP, the NDP were able to lead until 2033.

       Meanwhile, the Liberals under the leadership of Justin Trudeau have once again swept

into a majority government on the federal stage. The Liberals did a relatively good job of

addressing the COVID-19 pandemic, and it secured them a clear victory in the 2021

Canadian election. However, in 2025 the Canadian government had so much debt due to

pandemic spending and the post-pandemic recovery that it was forced to raise federal taxes

by 5%, leading to mass protests and political pressure that led Justin Trudeau to step down.

Chrystia Freeland was selected to be the new Prime Minister, and, although she tried her best,

she could not undo the damage caused by the massive debt load. Thus continuing the

Canadian tradition of leaving a woman Prime Minister with a hated government and a

massive problem in their hands.

       This led to a Conservative victory in 2028, and massive budget cuts to try to balance

the books. Although they were relatively successful in reducing the massive pandemic deficit

—70% over 4 years—, people were extremely upset with the massive service cuts that could

be felt in everything from lower quality healthcare to massive queues and wait times for

government services.

       Along with the massive budget cuts that angered many Canadians, global warming

got significantly worse by 2032. Sea levels rose by 2 meters—forcing coastal cities such as

Vancouver to begin building seawalls—and climate, especially in the territories and the

Prairies, got 3 degrees warmer on average and much drier. The number and intensity of forest

fires, especially in Alberta, have significantly increased, with one wildfire known as “Red

Thunder” burning half of Wood Buffalo National Park. Also in Alberta, a wide swath of land

from St. Albert to Lethbridge became the perfect breeding ground for the formation of

tornadoes. It has gotten so bad that this area is now called the New Tornado Alley, with a

massive tornado causing billions of dollars in damage occurring every few years.

                              Figure 4: Canada’s Tornado Alley

       Global warming has also been greatly affecting the rest of the world. Some of the

lower places along the equator have become uninhabitable, and with the sea levels rising,

seawalls and seawater pumps are a must, or else the land will become flooded.

       With the Conservatives hated for the budget cuts, the Liberals hated for the deficit

problem, and the rapid speed with which global warming seems to be moving, the Green

Party of Canada, still under the leadership of Annamie Paul, made history and won the

Canadian election of 2032. They immediately got to work by cancelling all new oil projects,

including pipelines, increasing the scope and effectiveness of the carbon tax, and creating a

plan to have Canada be carbon neutral in 5 years. They also increased the amount of money

provinces paid in equalization payments, which affected Albertans the most.

       This angered a lot of Albertans, and they once again decided to send a message to the

Federal government. In 2030, the UCP and the CPP merged together into the UCP to try to

retake power from Notley and the NDP. They were successful in their endeavours, and

Alberta once again had a conservative government in power. They were on extremely poor

terms with the federal Green Party, and to make matters worse, not a single seat in Alberta

went to the Green Party, leaving Alberta shut out of the federal government. They were

constantly clashing on a vast array of issues, and Albertans were getting increasingly fed up

with the federal Greens.

       One of the world’s largest oil fields was found in the Rockies in 2035, and although

oil prices have been increasing over time, the Green Party would not let Alberta launch any

new projects to harvest the oil. Instead, they passed large, comprehensive bills that greatly

reduced the size of the fossil fuel industry.

       Alberta’s economy has not diversified enough and is still extremely reliant on oil, so

these bills have essentially destroyed the Albertan economy. Although new agricultural

techniques have been increasing yields and Edmonton has become a new world leader in

Artificial Intelligence and nanotechnology, oil still makes up the overwhelming majority of

the economy. These new bills proved to be the last straw. On May 24, 2040, the Wildrose

Independence Party of Alberta won an overwhelming majority in the Alberta Legislature and

their mandate is simple: to free Alberta and create a brand new country.

The Here and Now

Major Political Parties

Currently, the Legislative Assembly of Alberta’s 87 seats are distributed among 5 different

parties (see Figure 5). The majority party, the Wildrose Independence Party has 49 seats. The

Alberta New Democratic Party (NDP) currently forms the official opposition with their 23

seats. After that, the United Conservative Party has 9 seats, the Alberta Party has 4, and the

Green Party of Alberta has 2. Each of these parties has drastically different interests to

defend, particularly with regards to the question of Albertan independence.

                          Figure 5: Alberta Legislative Assembly Seats, 2040

Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta

           The Wildrose Independence Party is the result of a 2020 merger between the Freedom

Conservative Party of Alberta and Wexit Alberta. 26 Although it began as a small and radical

party with no seats in representation, its popularity increased dramatically in the 20s and 30s
26
     Emily Mertz, “FCP and Wexit members to vote on merging into Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta”

leading up to the landslide victory in 2040. Their primary platform is their intention to hold a

referendum on Albertan Independence, after which they plan to develop a Constitution of

Alberta and institute policies that they feel are more representative of Alberta’s interests than

the federal ones.27 Now that they hold the majority of seats in the provincial legislative

assembly, their goals have never been more attainable. Since he won the leadership vote in

2021 as the only candidate running, Paul Hinman has served as the Wildrose Party’s leader.28

Now, as premier, he has the opportunity to shape the new direction of Alberta.

Alberta New Democratic Party (NDP)

        The New Democrats have been the dominant party in Alberta left-wing politics for

the past several decades, due in large part to the resurgence of progressivism amongst young

people in the province. Although the NDP may have lost their majority in provincial

legislation, they remain a force to be reckoned with. As premier, Rachel Notley instituted

universal childcare and worked to increase the sustainability of Alberta’s energy. However,

they are now faced with significant challenges with the Wildrose Party coming into power.

As decided federalists, they must now fight the possibility of Albertan independence as the

official opposition. Additionally, they will have to advocate even more strongly for

sustainable environmental policies, particularly with regards to the Alberta oil sands.

United Conservative Party

        The UCP has faced the most tumultuous political journey over the past 20 years.

From plummeting popularity following the COVID-19 pandemic to party divisions and

reunifications, the United Conservatives have truly dealt with it all. Now is the time to get

27
  “Our Mission,” Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta, https://wildrose.party/, Accessed 15 May 2021.
28
  Janet French, “Competing political parties hope to benefit from internal UCP fractures,” 14 May 2021,
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/competing-political-parties-hope-to-benefit-from-internal-ucp-fractu
res-1.6028041.

their act together as they now finally have another influential political party in Alberta with

many shared values in the Wildrose Independence Party. The party is, however, still

conflicted on its support for an independence referendum, with many Members of Legislative

Assembly (MLAs) believing that the best way forward would be to assert Alberta’s needs

while remaining in the federation. With Jason Kenney remaining their leader and a

controversial figure, the UCP truly has their work cut out for them.

Alberta Party

       A relatively small party that has recently gained some support, the Alberta Party

presents itself as the reasonable middle ground between the two warring sides of Alberta

politics. Centrist to the core, the Alberta Party believes that they can present a version of the

province that will satisfy everyone. They now, however, will have to face the increasingly

likely scenario that Alberta will hold a vote on independence, and decide which side to take.

Many of their policies, including increasing the affordability of education and providing

health care for children, could ally them with the NDP, but their belief that economic

prosperity comes from private enterprise could indicate stronger ties to the more conservative

provincial parties. Leading into the 2040s, the Alberta Party has the opportunity to become a

party of compromise between each side, should they be able to increase support for their

ideas. With Jacquie Fenske at the helm, they hope to deliver their vision of Alberta to the

general public.

Green Party of Alberta

       Active since 2011, the Green Party of Alberta has experienced a mild increase in

provincial representation due to the shocking victory for the Greens at the federal level.

The Way Forward
Secession

       Now that the Wildrose Independence Party has gained a majority in the Alberta

legislative assembly, you will have to determine the best path to independence. There are

several options by which secession could occur, each with their own set of advantages and

dangers.

       First, Alberta could decide to follow in the footsteps of Quebec by holding a

referendum to confirm that the people are indeed in favour of independence. If it passes, this

option would likely ensure the smoothest transition from province to country, as it would

provide the time for proper negotiations to occur between the Albertan and Canadian

governments. The time-consuming nature of this process could prove frustrating, however,

especially if the Canadian government is not willing to cooperate on an equal playing field

with Alberta.

       Second, as the majority party in the Alberta legislature, the Independence Party could

decide to declare independence without a vote from its citizens. This would allow the Wexit

cause to be furthered as quickly as possible, and would not completely rule out the prospect

of diplomatic discussions with Canada’s federal government. On the other hand, Alberta

could risk angering the people who live there by removing them from the process of

independence altogether. Such actions could paint a negative picture of a new country, thus

inhibiting its ability to perform well on the international stage.

       Finally, and most dangerously, Alberta could move towards a physical fight for

independence by employing its military capabilities to fight against the Canadian forces who

oppose their actions. This course of action is certainly risky, especially given that Alberta has

no official military to speak of, and it would place the province at odds with the country that

surrounds it on three sides. For the safety of civilians, it would likely be advisable to only

resort to violence as a very last resort.

          Whichever path you choose to follow, the road to Albertan independence will

certainly be rocky and treacherous, with pitfalls at every turn. Both the interests of the

province as a whole as well as the well-being of all Albertans must be considered in equal

measure. Additionally, remember that this is only the first step of a very long and arduous

transition from province to country. After Alberta has finally gained independence, there will

be many more decisions to be made and decisions to be taken.

Taxation

          As an independent nation, one of the first considerations you will have to make will

concern the national budget and subsequent sources of revenue. In recent years, Alberta has

begun to struggle financially because of the gradually diminishing economic returns on oil.29

In the past, the profit made from resource royalties paid by oil companies was enough to

support the provincial budget and keep it relatively balanced.30 However, continued

environmental degradation has caused a significant shift towards renewable energy sources,

particularly in the Global North. As a result, the previous income from oil is no longer

enough to make balanced budgets, and Alberta has therefore seen multi-billion-dollar deficits

for years.31 This has led many economic scholars and politicians to advocate for the raising of

taxes and implementation of a provincial sales tax (PST), including the Business Council of

Alberta.32 Now, the issue of taxation is even more important because Alberta will no longer

have subsidies from the Canadian government to support any of its operations once it is

29
     https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-tax-hst-carbon-report-1.5917593
30
     Ibid
31

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/road-ahead-alberta-proportional-representation-pst-1.59357
16
32
   Ibid

independent. Moreover, they will have to fund and govern all of the legislative powers that

are currently held by the Canadian government or shared between federal and provincial

offices.

           Currently, the province of Alberta’s responsibilities include prisons, hospitals,

education, natural resources, incorporation of companies, taxation within the province,

municipalities, property and civil rights, administration of civil and criminal justice, and

management or sale of public lands belonging to the province.33 If they become an

independent nation, however, they will have to oversee many other governmental

departments, such as postal service, currency, direct and indirect taxation, defence, navigation

and shipping, Indigenous peoples and reserves, penitentiaries, citizenship, and public debt

and property among others.34 They will also gain sole control over pensions, immigration,

and agriculture. While this increase in powers could be advantageous to furthering the

platforms and plans of the Wildrose Party, it will also mean that there is significantly more

money needed to properly run these added governmental bodies. This presents a significant

challenge for Alberta, which has long prided itself in having one of the lowest tax rates in

Canada.35 In fact, more than 80% of the total federal revenue came from some form of tax

33

https://www.canada.ca/en/intergovernmental-affairs/services/federation/distribution-legislative-powers.
html
34
   Ibid
35

https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/services/publications/annual-financial-report/2018/repor
t.html

during the 2017-2018 fiscal year (see Figure 6).

                             Figure 6: Breakdown of Federal Revenue

        In comparison to other provinces, Alberta receives very little revenue from their

income and general taxes. During the 2020-2021 fiscal year, Alberta’s tax revenue was only

$19.1 billion36, whereas Quebec received nearly $65 billion from taxes.37 While some of the

disparity in tax revenue could be explained by the fact that Quebec has approximately twice

the population of Alberta, the per capita tax revenue shows that there is indeed a significant

difference in provincial income because of how Quebec and Alberta each choose to tax their

residents.38

36
   Rebecca Graff-Mcrae and Ian Hussey, “Alberta Budget 2021,” Parkland Institute, 4 March 2021,
https://www.parklandinstitute.ca/alberta_budget_2021.
37
   Ministère des Finances, “Budget By the Numbers,” Gouvernement du Québec,
http://www.budget.finances.gouv.qc.ca/budget-en-chiffres/#/mars-2021/budget/revenus, Accessed 28 June 2021.
38
   “Comparing Ontario’s Fiscal Position with Other Provinces,” Financial Accountability Office of Ontario,
https://www.fao-on.org/en/Blog/Publications/inter-prov-comparisons-feb-2019#Figure%202:%20Ontario%20ge
nerated%20relatively%20high%20per%20capita%20tax%20revenues, Accessed 13 May 2021.

Figure 7: Tax Revenue per Capita for Canadian provinces in 2017

        The two most striking differences between the two tax systems are the inclusion or

exclusion of a provincial sales tax and the income tax brackets. In Quebec, there is a

Provincial Sales Tax (QST) at a rate of 9.975% in addition to the 5% general sales tax.39 This

means that on every taxable purchase made in the province, the government receives revenue.

Alberta, however, has always been staunchly opposed to the use of a provincial sales tax.

Furthermore, Figure 8 demonstrates the difference in income tax brackets for the two

provinces. As you can see, someone who falls under the highest tax bracket in Quebec and

would therefore have to deduct 25.75% of their yearly income would fall under the lowest tax

bracket in Alberta, only a 10% deduction. 40

 Province                                              Income Tax Rates in 2020

 Alberta                                               10% on the first $131,220 of taxable income, +

                                                       12% on the next $26,244, +

39
   “GST/HST and QST,” Revenue Quebec,
https://www.revenuquebec.ca/en/businesses/consumption-taxes/gsthst-and-qst/, Accessed 29 June 2021.
40
   Financial Consumer Agency of Canada, “Provincial and territorial income tax,” Government of Canada,
https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/financial-toolkit/taxes-quebec/taxes-quebec-2/6.h
tml, Accessed 18 May 2021.

13% on the next $52,488, +

                                                 14% on the next $104,976, +

                                                 15% on the amount over $314,928

 Quebec                                          15% on the first $44,545 of taxable income, +

                                                 20% on the next $44,535, +

                                                 24% on the next $19,310, +

                                                 25.75% on the amount over $108,390

                  Figure 8: 2020 Income Tax Rates for Alberta and Quebec

       If Alberta succeeds in becoming an independent nation, they will have to shoulder the

burden of all the programs currently financed through federal funding, and they may have to

reconsider how they tax their citizens so that they are financially capable of surviving as a

country. However, when making any changes to taxes, you will have to keep in mind that

many Albertans are advocates for lower taxes. Indeed, the rapid increase in support for the

Wildrose Independence Party as well as the decades-long popularity of conservatism and

conservative parties in Alberta are a result of campaign promises to keep Albertans’ money in

their own pockets. You will therefore have to tread carefully, lest your supporters turn on you

when you try to take more of their hard-earned income.

Generational and Geographical Divides

       Although the Wildrose Party won a decided majority in provincial representation, not

everyone in the province supports Albertan independence. In fact, the generational split

between left-wing and right-wing politics has been very distinct for decades. In 2020, a poll

conducted by the Angus Reid Institute found that over half of Albertans over the age of 55

were supporters of the United Conservative Party, while 47% of Albertans aged 18-34

intended to vote for the NDP. Since then, the NDP’s popularity with young people has

continued, making them a continued presence in Alberta politics. The NDP opposes holding a

referendum on independence, and their supporters also are advocates for remaining in

Canada. Therefore, if you choose to proceed with Wexit, there will be pushback from

increasingly influential age groups and the parties that represent them. In addition, the Green

Party of Alberta has also found renewed relevance in the province due mostly to their focus

on environmental issues, which is attractive to many younger populations.

              Figure 9: Age and gender distribution of party support in Alberta, 2020

       In terms of geographical distribution, the areas with the strongest support for an

independent Alberta

Questions to Consider

   1. How will the historical legacies of Alberta politics influence the attitudes towards

      succession and towards the Canadian government?

   2. How will the new country balance the importance of oil with the dangers of climate

      change?

   3. What are the demands that Alberta will put forward in conversations with the

      Canadian government?

   4. What should be the first priorities once an independent nation has been established?

   5. Who will be most affected by the shift towards Alberta as a nation, and how can the

      government minimize the negative impacts?

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