The Work of the Future: Shaping Technology and Institutions - Elisabeth Reynolds, Executive Director MIT Work of the Future Taskforce JWEL October ...
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The Work of the Future:
Shaping Technology and Institutions
Elisabeth Reynolds, Executive Director
MIT Work of the Future Taskforce
JWEL
October 28, 2019
1
Public Conversation is Filled with Alarmist Rhetoric
2
Prudential Life Insurance Billboard on the Massachusetts Pike (I-90)
MIT Work of the Future 3
In the last two months….
180+ CEOs sign on with Business Roundtable
committing to stakeholder value rather than
solely shareholder value
“The Purpose Of The Corporation? Business
Roundtable Advances The Conversation,
Now We All Need To Contribute” – Forbes
4+ week strike at General Motors,
Led by United Automobile Workers union
“G.M. Strike: 50,000 Union Workers Walk Out Over
Wages and Idled Plants” – The New York Times
Landmark bill passed in California, requires
companies like Uber and Lyft to view contract
workers as employees
“California Bill Makes App-Based Companies California
Bill Makes App-Based Companies Treat Workers as
Employees” – The New York Times
MIT Work of the Future
https://workofthefuture.mit.edu/
What’s All the Fuss About?
7/31/2019 Ac o he ich o ld, an e ao dina job boom i
p gp p p g nde p a - Wo king i
gg
of politicians, ho belie e that the are special. But the are not. Jobs abound because of forces that largel ha e
nothing to do ith them.
7/31/2019 Ac o he ich o ld, an e ao dina job boom i nde a - Wo king i
S b c b W c
W
Across the rich orld, an e traordinar jobs boom is nder a
Ma a e ce ab he de ab a e ae g
• “The Zeitgeist has lost touch with the data”
• “Many popular perceptions about the modern
labour market are wrong”
• “The despondency might be justified were not
popular perceptions about the world of work
so obviously wrong” And abound the do. Across the ecd a jobs bonan a is under a . In the past e ears the group has added 43m jobs.
The unemplo ment rate the number of people looking for ork as a share of the total labour force is at its lo est in
decades (see chart 1). Not e er member can celebrate. Unemplo ment in Ital , Spain and Greece remains higher than 6
before the nancial crisis of 2008-09. America s rate of labour-force participation is still ell o its all-time high. But
most can. In 2018, the emplo ment rate among people of orking age as the highest e er in Britain, Canada,
The Parallel and then Diverging Path of Productivity and
Earnings in the U.S., 1948 – 2017
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7
Earnings Grew in Parallel by Education and Sex
from 1948 – late 1970s, Diverged Thereafter
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8
Is this Time Different?
Employment Polarization So-So Technologies
• The era of digitalization has not delivered
comparable gains in productivity as other eras
• Both labor-substituting and labor-complementary
technologies can raise productivity
• Most workplace technologies do both
• Not all innovations that raise productivity displace
workers, and not all innovation that displace
workers substantially raise productivity
• Electric lighting – labor complementing
• Self-checkout kiosks – labor substituting
• So-so technologies are one explanation for why
we haven’t seen stronger productivity growth;
disrupt employment, displace workers but little
boost to productivity 9
The U.S. Stands Out for both Its Extremes of Rich and Poor
and Low Rate Intergenerational Mobility
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10Demographic Trends Point Toward Increasing Labor Scarcity
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11Autonomous Vehicles:
Significant Uncertainty Related to
AV technology
Waymo Honda, Fiat-Chrysler
Self-driving taxi Volkswagen, Toyota Nissan-Renault
trials in Phoenix Highway driving Fully driverless
Uber
Trials restarted
after accident
2018 2019 2020 2021 2025 2030
GM (Cruise) Tesla Most OEMs
Commercial “Significantly Fully driverless
ride-hailing better than
service humans”
MIT Work of the Future 12MIT Work of the Future 13
Automated Vehicles:
Toyota Research Institute Approach
1 System, 2 Modes for Guardian
those who want to drive © 2018 Toyota Research Institute. Public.
and those who do not or Chauffeur
cannot drive
MIT Research
Work of thebyFuture
Professor John Leonard, Dept. of Mechanical EngineeringAVs Estimated to Displace
1.3 – 2.3m U.S. Workers
• Biggest shocks at least 20 years out,
size similar to recent China trade
shock
• Regional disparities – esp. hard on
South
• Potential increase in workers’
commuting range—OR increased
congestion, collapse of public
transit
MIT Work of the Future Preparing U.S. Workers and Employers for an Autonomous Vehicle Future (Helper et al. 2018)
15A Quarter of All Jobs are Considered
Highly Susceptible to Automation
MIT Work of the Future Source: Brookings analysis of BLS, Census, EMSI, and McKinsey dataAverage Automation Potential by State Ranges
from 42 – 48%
MIT Work of the Future Source: Brookings analysis of BLS, Census, EMSI, Moody’s, and McKinsey dataExample of Rapid Machine Learning
Progress:
Computer Vision
Accuracy of AI system
human
machine
ImageNet Visual Recognition Challenge source: http://aiindex.org/2017-report.pdf and
MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy (IDE)
MIT Work of the Future 18Tasks Done by Radiologists (27 tasks) Sample Tasks: 1. Provide advice on types or quantities of radiology equipment needed to maintain facilities. 2. Perform interventional procedures such as image-guided biopsy, percutaneous transluminal angioplasty, transhepatic biliary drainage, or nephrostomy catheter placement. 3. Administer or maintain conscious sedation during and after procedures. 4. Interpret images using computer-aided detection or diagnosis systems. 5. Develop treatment plans for radiology patients. 6. Treat malignant internal or external growths by exposure to radiation from radiographs (x-rays), high energy sources, or natural or synthetic radioisotopes. 7. Conduct physical examinations to inform decisions about appropriate procedures. MIT Work of the Future Erik Brynjolfsson, Initiative for a Digital Economy, 2018; based on O*NET Data 19
O*Net: Tasks Done by Radiologists (27
tasks)
Sample Tasks (out of 27 tasks):
1. Provide advice on types or quantities of radiology equipment needed
to maintain facilities.
2. Perform interventional procedures such as image-guided biopsy,
percutaneous transluminal angioplasty, transhepatic biliary drainage,
or nephrostomy catheter placement.
3. Administer or maintain conscious sedation during and after
procedures.
4. Interpret images using computer-aided detection or diagnosis
systems.
5. Develop treatment plans for radiology patients.
6. Treat malignant internal or external growths by exposure to radiation
from radiographs (x-rays), high energy sources, or natural or synthetic
radioisotopes.
7. Conduct physical examinations to inform decisions about appropriate
procedures.
MIT Work of the Future Erik Brynjolfsson, Initiative for a Digital Economy, 2018 20O*Net: Tasks Done by Radiologists (27
tasks)
Sample Tasks (out of 27 tasks):
1. Provide advice on types or quantities of radiology equipment needed
to maintain facilities.
2. Perform interventional procedures such as image-guided biopsy,
percutaneous transluminal angioplasty, transhepatic biliary drainage,
or nephrostomy catheter placement.
3. Administer or maintain conscious sedation during and after
procedures.
4. Interpret images using computer-aided detection or diagnosis
systems.
5. Develop treatment plans for radiology patients.
6. Treat malignant internal or external growths by exposure to radiation
from radiographs (x-rays), high energy sources, or natural or synthetic
radioisotopes.
7. Conduct physical examinations to inform decisions about appropriate
procedures.
MIT Work of the Future
Erik Brynjolfsson, Initiative for a Digital Economy, 2018 21Low-Skilled Workers: Challenging Outlook
Particularly in Cities
Wages vs. Population Density
• Medium-skill jobs are declining in aggregate Over Time by Education
• Since 1960s the share of workers without a college
education has decreased, yet their wages have also
decreased College
• Urban areas have seen a growing wage gap for No college
those with vs. without some college education;
cities no longer offer better paying jobs for lower
skilled workers
New York Times, Janury, 12,2019
MIT Work of the Future 22
Mobility and Work of the Future Richard T. Ely Lecture, AEA Annual Meeting (Autor, 2019)Skills, Education and Training:
Returns to Social Skills Have Increased in the US
Cumulative Changes in Employment Share
• Social skills enable workers with different abilities
to collaborate
• Social and cognitive (e.g. math) skills are
complements
Cumulative Changes in Hourly Wages
• Workers with high social skills sort into higher-
paying non-routine work
• Over time social skills have come to generate
more wages and a higher chance of employment
Mobility and Work of the Future The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market (Deming 2017) 23Recent Innovations in Education and Training
in Ohio
• Lorain County Community College’s 4-year Bachelor of Applied Science
in microelectronic manufacturing
– First 4-year Bachelor offered by an Ohio community college
– Developed from 2-year vocational degree to create “super-
technicians”
• Mahoning Valley Manufacturers Coalition’s regional partnerships in
Youngstown
– Founded by frustrated metal-forming factory owners
– Created sponsored apprenticeship programs to boost community
college attendance
– Inserted recognized credentials into high school programs
• University of Akron’s partnership with Stark State Community College
– Dual admission: students cross-register for Akron courses without
paying full tuition
– Students can transfer to Akron after 2 years at Stark State
MIT Work of the Future 24How Do Employers Respond to Online Degrees?
• Researchers studied the effect of having an
online postsecondary credential versus a
traditional university credential on callbacks for a
job posting.
• Fictional resumes were randomly assigned
postsecondary institutions from varied sectors
and of varied quality to see how real vacancy
business and health employers would respond.
• For jobs that did not require a degree, there was Photo Credit: Shutterstock
no advantage to having a postsecondary
credential from a for-profit institution.
• For jobs that did require a degree, resumes with
for-profit postsecondary credentials were over 20
percent less likely to receive callbacks.
MIT JPAL - Amira Abulafi, David Deming, Claudia Goldin, Lawrence Katz, & Noam Yuchtman (2016)
MIT Work of the Future 25Educating the Workforce of the Future:
the Role of Work-based Higher Education
• Comparative insights (US-Germany) show
growing importance of higher education
Growth of WBHE program in Germany
programs that promote the close
integration of theory and practice; combine
academic knowledge and ‘workplace skills’ Programs
Companies
Students
• Significant variation in program design and
implementation; Germany more
standardized than US
• Key distinguishing factor: greater
cooperation between companies and
higher education institution in Germany Source: AusbildungsPlus Datenbank 2017
• Combined with high accessibility,
affordability of programs in Germany,
increase likelihood to retain graduates
MIT Work of the Future. Inez von Weitershausen, Working Paper, April, 2019Skills Retraining Informed
by Science
Advances in psychology, neuroscience,
of Learning
education allow us to better understand
the process of learning. Findings
suggest:
• Social interaction improves
language learning
• Frequent practice problems &
feedback, including online quizzes,
may double learning attainment;
practice tests
• “Fluid” skills decline with age; Park et al., 2002, Psychology and Aging
“crystallized skills” or domain
knowledge peak at 70
MIT Work of the Future. John Gabrieli et al, PLOS ONE, 2018
27Workplaces of the Future: Automation, Robotics, and
Artificial Intelligence
• Industrial robots – Concentrated effects
• Worker scarcity – Not too many production workers, too few
• Robots can displace or collaborate or both – Collaborative robots
• Beyond the factory floor – Robots in warehouses, hospitals, and retail stores
• Artificial Intelligence – A component of robotics but broader reach b/c
software-only
• Machine Learning – Differs from previous waves of automation in that it applies
to high- as well as low-education jobs and can learn as it works; task-level
• Autonomous vehicles – More than 3 million commercial vehicle drivers in U.S.
• Rapid and total transition to vehicle autonomy – Would be highly disruptive,
appears highly unlikely
• Automation that complements rather than entirely replaces human drivers for
many years, except in special settings (mines, closed private roadways) 28Policy Priorities: Skilling for the Future
Four powerful undercurrents…
1. Entering period of labor scarcity due to low fertility, large Baby Boom
cohorts retiring, restrictive immigration policies
2. Rapidly rising educational attainment will reduce supply of young, able-
bodied workers to blue-collar and personal service occupations
3. Rapidly aging population creates enormous job growth in care sector
4. Substantial replacement hiring even in contracting occupations such as
production work, trades, driving occupations, etc.
29Skilling for the Future
Initial Priorities
• Most at risk are those who lack strong technical training or 2 or 4-year degrees or
more
• Train for new middle skill jobs (health tech) + replacement hiring in traditional
middle-skill jobs (production work, trades)
• Build on what we know works:
• Community colleges - wraparound services, industry partnerships
• Work-based learning sectoral programs
• Encourage Innovation and Experimentation WITH Rigorous Evaluation
• New partnership models across high school, community colleges, 4-year colleges
• Online learning – mixed outcomes to date
• Non-degree credentials – the “wild west”
• Adult learning – need great investment across different ages/socioeconomics30Four Additional Policy Areas to Prioritize
“If You Skill Them, Jobs Will Come” is Insufficient
1. Rebalancing fiscal policies away from subsidizing investment in
physical capital and toward catalyzing investment in human
capital
2. Restoring the role of workers as stakeholders, alongside owners
and stockholders, in corporate decision-making
3. Fostering technological and organizational innovation to
complement workers
4. Reinvigorating America’s leadership position in technology and
innovation
31Thank You
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