UNION BUDGET 2021 - February 2021

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UNION BUDGET 2021 - February 2021
VOLUME 113 | ISSUE 4 | JANUARY-FEBRUARY 2021

                                                                        UNION
                                                                       BUDGET
                                                                          2021

     Cover Story                                Tax Corner                 Global Connect
     India FY 2021/22 Union Budget:             Budget 2021 –              2021: A Promising
     Bold spending plans                        Setting the Pace           Chapter in the
     underpinned by Shaky                       for a Resilient            India-Germany
07   Funding Projections                   15   V-shaped Trajectory   20   Story

                                  REBOOT   REFORM         RESURGE
UNION BUDGET 2021 - February 2021
UNION BUDGET 2021 - February 2021
Contents
President
Mr. Rajiv Podar
                                                                                               January-
                                                                                               February 2021

Vice-President
Mr. Juzar Khorakiwala

Editor & Publisher
Mr. Ajit Mangrulkar
Director-General

Executive Editor
Mr. Sanjay Mehta
Dy. Director-General

Copy Editing & Concept
Ms. Chitra Kamath
Jt. Director-Membership
Ms. Jayshree Poojary
Asst.Director-PR

Views expressed in the IMC Journal
are not necessarily those of the
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                                           Agri-infra focus of Union Budget will
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                                                                                   14   Does the budget have the Midas
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                                                                                              Reboot | Reform | Resurge
                                                                                   IMC Journal n January-February 2021
                                                                                                                          1
UNION BUDGET 2021 - February 2021
Tax Corner                                               35   Can the Union Budget 2021-22 accelerate India’s
                                                                       Economic Growth?
         16   Budget      2021      –      Setting   the   Pace
              for a Resilient V-shaped Trajectory                 35   Reimagining your Business for the Digital Era

                                                                  36   How to Start-up and then Scale-up?

                                                                  36   Commodity Market Drivers and Outlook for 2021
         Global Connect
                                                                  37   Startup Entrepreneurs - Art of Fundraising
         21   2021: A Promising Chapter in the India-Germany
                                                                  37   Pre-Packaged and Liquidation under IBC
              Story
                                                                  38   What MSMEs need in the Current Economy?
         23   Meeting with Norwegian Consul General to Mumbai
                                                                  39   Marketing and Sales Guide for Entrepreneurs 2021
         23   MOU signed between IMC and Japan Association to
              establish Bilateral Business Forum                  40   Business Partner City Roundtable by Osaka City
                                                                       Government
         Special Initatives
                                                                  41   Recipe of Success with Innovation and Tech
         24   Hon’ble         Finance       Minister         at
                                                                  42   Commodities: Options in Goods Contract - Gold and
              Sarvasparshi Arthsankalp 2021
                                                                       Gold Options in Goods Contract - An Investment Tool
         24   Memorandum Of Understanding signed with
              the Department of Commerce and Industries,          42   What if the soul of your business disappeared
              Government of Mahrashtra                                 overnight? Turning calamities into opportunities

         25   Conference on Technical Textile – The Future of     42   Human Capital – Your Differentiator in 2021
POETRY

              Indian Textile Industry
                                                                  43   Start-ups – Tax and Regulatory Perspective

         Budget Special
         27   The Union Budget 2021-22                            Ladies Wing

                                                                  43   An Inside View of BR Chopra Iconic Films – In
                                                                       Conversation with Mrs. Renu Chopra
         Knowledge                                                44   The Grandeur of Russia
         29   Will the New Farm L aws Reshape Agriculture
                                                                  44   Shots of Serenity with Swami Purnachaitanya
              Markets?
                                                                  44   Women in Philanthropy - A Personal Journey, a
         29   Seminar on – Navi Mumbai as Entrepreneurship
              Hub                                                      Public Conversation

         31   Panel discussion on Small Company Stock Market      44   Union Budget 2021 – Possibilities Amidst
              Listing                                                  Pandemonium

         32   Journey Beyond Accreditation                        45   Journeys Beyond Wanderlust - XPD2470 Drive from
                                                                       Coimbatore To London
         33   INDCON 2020-21 – Building Stronger Research &
              Development Ecosystem – Enabling Saksham Bharat     45   Genext Espresso
              Abhiyaan                                            45   The Short Story Discussion with Ms. Soha Parekh

               Reboot | Reform | Resurge
         2     IMC Journal n January-February 2021
UNION BUDGET 2021 - February 2021
From the President’s Desk
                            Mr. Rajiv Podar

As we move from survival to revival
 Wishing IMC
phase,        everyone alonga very happy
                                 with  ourand26a
sprosperous
  p e c i f i c - enew
                     x p eyear
                           r t 2021!
                                committees
 continues
 We        started  to work  2021on range
                                      on      of
                                              an
 programs
 extremely and     positivevirtual
                                noteevents
                                      with theto
 galvanize,
 commencement   inspire and      empower
                            of the  COVID-19our
 members
 vaccinationwith    drive.a The
                              shared  learning
                                  second   phase
 experience
 of the vaccinationas we navigate
                              drive hasthrough
                                         already
 COVID
 begun and  crisis.brings new hope and
enthusiasm in our drive to fight the
With
COVID.the vaccine now being
developed and approved by a few
countries,  we hope we can begin
World Economy
“normal    living” in the coming
Although recent vaccine approvals
months.
have raised hopes of a turnaround in
the pandemic later this year, renewed
World Economy                                        social distancing through 2021,                     contraction in government spend-
waves and new variants of the virus
pose concerns for the outlook. Amid                  weighing heavily on GDP.                            ing).
It is expected the decline in world                  exit a technical recession. Supply-                 basis, the second advance estimate
exceptional uncertainty, the global
GDP in 2020 to be less severe at                     side
                                                     Indianmeasure,
                                                              EconomyGVA recovered to                    pegs   a weaker
                                                                                                          • Basis            growthelevated
                                                                                                                       the recent      for FY21CPI  at
economy is projected to grow 5.5
–3.7% compared to –4.4% in the                       +1.0%YoY from -7.3% in Q2.                          -8.0%    vs.  preliminary     estimate
                                                                                                          inflation prints and expectations on      of
percent in 2021 and 4.2 percent in
September Global Economic                            •    India’s GDP growth, while still                -7.7%.
                                                                                                          evolvingHowever,     at a closer(food
                                                                                                                     price pressures        look,and
                                                                                                                                                   we
2022.                                                The return to positive growth is
Outlook(GEO). The Fitch Rating                       in contraction, registered a shal-                  find   that  GVA    is  now  expected
                                                                                                          cost-push), inflation trajectory for      to
                                                     remarkable especially since it has
The projected
Research     Reportsgrowth
                         haverecovery
                                also revised  this   lower contraction of 7.5% YoY in Q2                 see  a  shallower    contraction
                                                                                                          H2FY21; was revised by RBI         at 6.5%
                                                     occurred almost a quarter earlier
yeartheir
up    follows  a severe
           annual     world collapse     in 2020
                                GDP growth           F Y 2 1 v i s - à - v i s b ro a d m a r ke t       vs. -7.0% earlier
                                                                                                          projecting           – which
                                                                                                                        inflation        is the
                                                                                                                                   at 6.8%    fortrue
                                                                                                                                                  Q3
                                                     than was envisaged 3-6 months
that has for
forecast   had    acute
               2021,    butadverse      impacts
                              only modestly,         expectation of 8-9% contraction.                    indicators   of real  economic    activity.
                                                                                                          and 5.8% for Q4 (vs. a range of 4.5-
                                                     back and in comparison, to record
on5.3%
to   women,
          (fromyouth,
                  5.2%), as   thethepoor,
                                      deterio-the                                                         5.4%rose
                                                                                                                announced
                                                     contraction of 24.4% and 7.3% in                    PMI         to 55.3 ininFebruary
                                                                                                                                  Oct-21).from
                                                                                                                                            For
informally
rating        employed,
        outlook    in the veryand near
                                    thoseterm who    • Q2 GDP data has pushed India                       FY22,  it estimates   a range of 4.6-
                                                     Q1 and Q2 respectively. The brisk                   52.8 in January owing to quicker
work in contact-intensive
partially    is offset by a stronger   sectors.      into a technical recession. However,                 5.2% in H1.
                                                     sequential recover y in Q3 FY21                     increase  in new orders.
The global
outlook     fromgrowth     contraction
                     the second          half for
                                               of    the economy has shown signs of
                                                     can be attributed to - pickup in
2020year.
the     is estimated
              We are now   at -3.5    percent,
                                significantly        reviving due to easing of supply                    • Recovery in the manufacturing
0.9 percentage
                                                     manufacturing, construction and                     Union Budget 2021-22
more     optimistic point       higher
                        for 2022,         as than
                                              we     disruptions as well as unlocking of                 space in Q2 was driven by the
                                                     real estate activities as the economy               We  thank of
                                                                                                                   the Motor
                                                                                                                       Hon’ble Vehicles
                                                                                                                               Union Finance
projectedvaccine
assume        in the rollout
                        previous   willforecast
                                           facili-   pent-up demand.                                      sectors                        and
                                                     underwent a gradual unlock and                      Minister
(reflecting
tate           stronger-than-expected
       a material       easing in social                                                                  Transport Equipment,considering
                                                                                                                   for favorably   Electrical
                                                     labour mobility normalised, pent-                   IMC’s  recommendation   during  Pre-
momentumand
distancing       in boosting
                      the second          half of
                                   economic          • On supply side, the noteworthy                     Equipment,     Fabricated  Metals,
                                                     up and festive consumer demand                      Budget discussion.
2020).
activity.    A significant uplift to                 feature is the return of Manufactur-                Tobacco, Textiles and Apparels,
                                                     getting bunched up and mercifully
Eurozone      GDP of  growth      in 2022y isis      ing and Utilities GVA to expansion                   L e a t many
                                                                                                         With     h e r, Efresh
                                                                                                                            l e c t ro n i c s the
                                                                                                                                    ideas,     , H FY22
                                                                                                                                                    eavy
The strength              the recover                an absence of a second wave of
expected                                             territory. Growth in Manufacturing
projected from
             to varygrant    disbursements
                        significantly       across   virus in India alongside a few policy                Machinery,
                                                                                                         Budget     signalsFurniture
                                                                                                                              the surgical  anddelivery
                                                                                                                                                   Wood
from   the EU’s     Next Generation           EU     GVA has now turned positive after a                  Products,
                                                                                                         by             Beverages,inBasic
                                                                                                             the Government                areasMetals,
                                                                                                                                                   it was
countries,     depending        on access       to   initiatives especially for the real
recovery     fund (NGEU).            The US          gap of 4-quarters, upending the                      among others.
                                                                                                         desired    the most. Undoubtedly, the
medical interventions,          effectiveness        estate sector. Further, accelerated
and   the support,
of policy   Eurozoneexposureis expected
                                      to cross-to    drag from both pre COVID and                        economic backdrop against which
                                                     progress on vaccine and its rollout
regain
countrypre-pandemic
            spillovers, and    (4Q19)       GDP
                                   structural
                                                     COVID related reasons. Further,                      • On
                                                                                                         this        demand
                                                                                                                Budget       wasside,    while all was
                                                                                                                                     presented        key
                                                     in Q4 has buoyed consumer and
levels    earlierentering
characteristics        than the previously
                                     crisis.
                                                     healthy expansion in Agriculture                     drivers continue
                                                                                                         challenging       to say to  thecontract
                                                                                                                                             least. Theon
                                                     business sentiment. In this spirit,
anticipated, by 3Q21 and 2Q22,                       and Allied activities on the back of a               annualized has
                                                                                                         government        basis,     the extent
                                                                                                                                 focused      on growth of
                                                     underscoring the strength of the
respectively.
Indian Economy       Vaccine             rollout     surplus monsoon is comforting. The                   contraction
                                                                                                         and   economiceased recoverysignificantly
                                                                                                                                           by providingin
                                                     V-shaped recovery, a gamut of lead
problems or delays are the                           drag in growth however came from                    aQ2  vis-à-vis
                                                                                                           counter       Q1. fiscal push.
                                                                                                                       cyclical
India’s GDP posted a mildly positive                 indicators either surpassed or were in
key downside            risk and           could     the financial sector (emanating
growth of 0.4%YoY in Q3 FY21 after                   striking distance of pre-COVID levels               In      totality, bythe      Budget
result      in      repeated           circuit-      from deceleration in credit offtake)                 • Supported           expenditure
a hiatus of 2 quarters to finally                    by the end of CY20. On an annual                    announcements
breaker lockdowns and extensive                      and public sector (reflected in a                    rationalization and other sources in
                                                                                                                            must  be  seen  of

                                                                                                                 Reboot | Reform | Resurge
                                                                                                     IMCIMC Journal
                                                                                                         Journal    < November-December
                                                                                                                 n January-February 2021 2020
                                                                                                                                                      3 01
UNION BUDGET 2021 - February 2021
From the President’s Desk
         conjunction with the multitude of            smart and intelligent way to generate         Sitharaman ji at a meeting
         measures announced for the rural             funds.                                        organized during her first visit
         and MSME sectors in the ongoing                                                            to Mumbai post the Budget.
                                                      IMC welcomes the proposals to
         fiscal year.
                                                      set up – (i) Asset Reconstruction         •   Agriculture accounts for 16%
         Amidst the pandemic, while an                Company Limited and Asset                     of India’s GDP has emerged as
         enhanced focus on Health sector was          Management Company to tackle                  the star performer in India’s
         expected, the Budget overdelivered           stressed assets of the banking                pandemic-hit-economy by
         on this front. The introduction of           sector, (ii) A Development Financial          recording 3.4% growth during
         the new PM AtmaNirbhar Swasth                Institution with an initial corpus of         the first two quarters of 2020-
         Bharat scheme, a clearly demarcated          Rs 20,000 cr for infrastructure and           21. IMC organized an excellent
         fund allocation towards COVID                real estate lending along with début          expert panel discussion on the
         vaccine, along with 137% increase in         of a National Monetization Pipeline           Agricultural reforms to discuss
         allocation towards the health sector         and Zero-coupon bonds. These are              the transformations expected
         are welcome steps.                           all steps to ensure requisite long-term       in the Indian agricultural
                                                      funds.                                        landscape.
         In addition, the thrust on universal
         coverage of water supply, clean air,         Separately, increase in permissible       •   India witnessing the startup
         expansion of Ujjwala scheme reflects         FDI limit from 49% to 74% in                  boom with of 50,000 plus
         the positive intent of the Government        Insurance Companies and allow                 startups. We sparked a new
         to improve general wellbeing.                foreign ownership and control with            conversation to harness
                                                      safeguards is an attempt to attract           the entrepreneurial spirit
         The     Budget     reinforces  the
                                                      overseas players in this underinvested        in Navi Mumbai with a
         continued thrust on agriculture
                                                      sector.                                       webinar on New Mumbai as
         sector and welfare of farmers, via
                                                                                                    Entrepreneurship Hub Series
         higher outlays to RIDF, expansion            In addition, the revised customs duty
                                                                                                    to create an ecosystem for
POETRY

         of Operation Greens Scheme and               structure to eliminate distortions,
                                                                                                    entrepreneurs to fulfil their
         e-NAMs etc. In fact, introduction            especially for iron and steel,
                                                                                                    needs in terms of access,
         of the Agri-infrastructure cess in           Electronic and mobile phone, textiles,
                                                                                                    human capital and funding.
         a non-inflationar y manner is a              chemicals, gems & jewellery, leather
         smart move to channelize revenues            among others, reinforces the creation     •   With technology accelerating
         in a guaranteed manner to further            of levers to propel growth in the job-        innovations and digitization
         agriculture investments.                     creating sectors.                             changing the face of business
                                                                                                    today, we had a scintillating
         From       industr y     perspective,        However, there are few misses
                                                                                                    session on driving Digital
         the Budget rightly frontloads                specially concerning the Tourism,
                                                                                                    Strategy by Prof Sunil Gupta,
         infrastructure investment. The               Aviation, Hospitality sector. Also,
                                                                                                    Edward W. Carter Professor
         allocation towards infrastructure with       there are some concerns regarding
                                                                                                    from Harvard University.
         a stronger focus on roads, railways,         Tax amendments got in the Budget.
         ports, urban infrastructure among            IMC has taken up the issues and           •   IMC has been organizing
         others, will create a much-needed            represented to the Hon’ble Finance            INDCON Building Stronger
         multiplier impact in the economy.            Minister for consideration.                   Research and Development
         Towards this end, the pegged capital                                                       Ecosystem Enabling Saksham
                                                      Overall, the Union Budget makes
         spending at 2.5% of GDP in FY22                                                            Bharat Abhiyan – a series of
                                                      a fervent pitch by attaining a fine
         which is a significant jump from                                                           virtual conclave pan-India with
                                                      balance of supporting growth via a
         1.7% in FY20, assumes paramount                                                            a focus on industry-academia
                                                      durable impetus to investments with
         importance given that capex has                                                            partnership. A fter Mumbai-
                                                      the commitment of a glide path of
         a nearly 7x impact on GDP than                                                             Pune, Delhi-NCR INDCON
                                                      fiscal consolidation beginning FY22
         revenue spending.                                                                          Kolkata & Guwahati has also
                                                      onwards.
                                                                                                    received a resounding success
         A well laid out plan for disinvestment
                                                                                                    with India’s top educationist
         including 2 Banks and an Insurance           IMC Activities
                                                                                                    and eminent industry experts
         Company sets the stage for                   •     I had the honour to speak and           covering a wide range of issues.
         revamping of Public Sector Policy.                 share the dais with the Hon’ble         A robust collaboration between
         Focus on Monetization of Assets is a               Finance Minister Smt Nirmala            industry-academia will create

                Reboot | Reform | Resurge
          4     IMC Journal n January-February 2021
UNION BUDGET 2021 - February 2021
an employment-ready workforce           biggest competitor, disrupt                  Considering the emergence
    producing a vast pool of skilled        your business and emerge                     of technical textile as a fast-
    talent.                                 in the new stronger avatar.”                 growing sub-segment finding
                                            – Mr. Rajesh Srivastava.                     its usage in an array of sectors
•   MSME’s represent the spirit
                                            A scintillating session on                   IMC was honored to have
    of enterprise and are the
                                            discovering the soul of your                 Hon’ble Minister for Textiles &
    backbone of our economic
                                                                                         Women and Child Development
    engine as we head towards our           business by Author Rajesh
                                                                                         Smt. Smriti Irani at the
    $5 Trillion Goal! Through a             Srivastava sparked a new
                                                                                         Technical Textile Summit.
    session on What MSME’s need             dynamic on how re-inventing
                                                                                         On the potential of technical
    in the current economy. We              our businesses at regular
                                                                                         textile, she said that Technical
    had eminent experts discussing          intervals can help us thrive in              Textile is poised to be the
    tangible      solutions      and        an ever-changing world.                      future of the Textile Industry
    actionable insights to accelerate
                                        •   Technical Textile accounts for               with target growth of 15-20pc
    the growth momentum for
                                            13% of India’s total textile and             to increase to 40-50 B USD by
    MSME’s.
                                                                                         2024.
                                            apparel market contributing
•   “Businesses   never     die,
                                            to 0.007% of India’s GDP.              Stay safe Stay well
    Business models do. Be your

                                                                                         Reboot | Reform | Resurge
                                                                               IMC Journal n January-February 2021
                                                                                                                      5
UNION BUDGET 2021 - February 2021
Knowledge
COVER STORY

                   Reboot | Reform | Resurge
              6    IMC Journal n January-February 2021
UNION BUDGET 2021 - February 2021
Knowledge

               UNION BUDGET 2021-2022
       Agri-infra focus of Union Budget will exert
                long-term positive impact
                                               G. Chandrashekhar
                   Economic Advisor, IMC Chamber of Commerce and Industry and Director, IMC-ERTF
The focus of the Union Budget             To address the issue of water stress,        and southern coast to be developed
2021-2022 is on healthcare,               the Budget has doubled the micro-            as hubs of economic activity. At the
education & infrastructure. Despite       irrigation fund to Rs 10,000 crore.          same time, inland fishing will be
robust economic growth, our social                                                     boosted with plans to develop inland
                                          India is among the world’s largest
development indicators leave much to                                                   fishing harbours and fish landing
                                          producers of fruits and vegetables.
be desired. So, higher outlay for and                                                  centres along the banks of rivers and
                                          The scope of Operation Green
renewed emphasis on healthcare and                                                     waterways.
                                          which focused on tomato, onion
education is welcome. With proper
                                          and potato is now extended to as             India is the world’s second largest
implementation, over time, our social
                                          many as 22 perishable products of            producer and exporter of cotton. But
conditions are sure to improve.
                                          horticulture. This is intended to            we do import about 15-20 lakh bales
To pare India’s infrastructure deficit,   result in reduced wastage, higher            of extra-long staple (ELS) varieties
the outlay of Rs 5.54 lakh crore          value addition, price stability and          of cotton that are not grown in our
will look to create assets like roads,    improved price realisation for growers       country in adequate quantities. To
bridges, etc., ease transportation        while strengthening the supply chain.        discourage imports and encourage

                                                                                                                                 INSIGHT
bottlenecks, create jobs and incomes                                                   domestic production, the Budget has
                                          The varying rates of basic customs
as also utilize commodities such as                                                    imposed a 10 percent customs duty
                                          duty on import of a variety of
cement, steel, copper and so on.                                                       on cotton import.
                                          vegetable oils and pulses have now
The policy to scrap old vehicles          been reduced and standardized. The           This levy has no doubt upset the user
will boost the automobile industry,       basic customs duty will be 15% on all        industry. But there is a silver lining.
promote commodity consumption and         vegetable oils and 10% on all pulses.        There is now an opportunity for the
help reduce vehicular pollution.          This standardization will also help          user industry to establish backward
                                          address objections raised at the WTO         linkages and boost cultivation of ELS
Agriculture and allied activities saw
                                          by supplier countries about India’s          cotton domestically. The industry
enhanced agricultural credit target,
                                          unstable customs duty regime.                must work with farmer producer
higher allocation for micro-irrigation,
                                                                                       companies by using the contract
focus on rural infrastructure             To compensate for loss of revenue
                                                                                       farming law.
development and rationalization           due to standardization of customs
of customs duty on imports of             duty at lower levels, a new levy             All these budgetary provisions when
specified commodities while levying       called Agriculture Infrastructure            read with the three agri-market
a new agriculture infrastructure          Development Cess is introduced.              reform laws (contract farming,
development cess on such imports.         The fund created will boost agri-            private markets and liberalization
                                          infrastructure. APMC mandis (usually         of ECA) are expected to have a
The agriculture credit target has
                                          under control of State governments)          significant positive impact on the
been enhanced by 10% to a new
                                          are eligible to access the fund for          farm ecosystem.
high of Rs 16.5 lakh crore for 2021-
                                          augmenting infrastructure facilities.
22 with focus on increasing credit                                                     Union Budget 2021-2022 is a
                                          Simultaneously, 1,000 more mandis
flows to animal husbandry, dairy and                                                   pro-growth budget coming at a
                                          are to be integrated with e-NAM
fisheries. Higher credit flow will help                                                challenging time for the economy.
                                          (electronic national agricultural
farmers access inputs in time and                                                      The key to success is implementation.
                                          market).
boost output. The policymakers need                                                    It is critical New Delhi monitors
to ensure that small and marginal         The growth of the fisheries sector           the implementation of the budget
farmers are able to access and benefit    has now been fast-tracked with five          proposals and provides the nation
from the enhanced credit availability.    major fishing harbours on eastern            periodic updates.

                                                                                             Reboot | Reform | Resurge
                                                                                   IMC Journal n January-February 2021
                                                                                                                           7
UNION BUDGET 2021 - February 2021
Knowledge

                                 India FY 2021/22 Union Budget:
                                 Bold spending plans underpinned
                                   by Shaky Funding Projections

              THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY
              RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Ratings. Any comments
              or data are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and
              independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch
              Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.

              Key View                                     The Indian central government                Wide Deficit To Continue
              •     We at Fitch Solutions forecast         released its FY2021/22 (April –            India - Central Government Fiscal
                    India’s central fiscal deficit to      March, FY22) Union Budget on                       Balance, % of GDP
                    be 8.0% of GDP in FY2021/22            February 1 2021. Major expenditure
                    (April – March, FY22), versus          areas in FY22 remain on
                    the    government’s        6.8%        infrastructure, healthcare, agriculture
                    projection.                            and rural development. No major
                                                           changes were announced on the
COVER STORY

              •     Infrastructure, healthcare,            revenue front regarding direct tax
                    agriculture,    and   rural            rates.
                    development were the main
                    focus areas for government             As we hold a less optimistic forecast
                    expenditure in FY22.                   for real GDP growth in FY22 at 9.5%,
                                                           against the government’s 11.0%            e = Government Revised Estimates,
              •     With no major changes to               projection, this also informs our view    f = Fitch Solutions forecast. Source:
                    revenue-side measures, we              for revenue collection to be less than     Budget Documents, Fitch Solutions
                    forecast revenues to come              the government had projected for the
                    in below the government’s              fiscal year.                              Government Raining Cash On
                    projections, given our real                                                      The Economy
                    GDP growth forecast of 9.5% in         As such, we at Fitch Solutions
                                                           forecast the FY22 central                 The      central     government
                    FY22, which is less optimistic
                                                           deficit forecast to be 8.0% of            budgeted expenditures for FY22
                    versus the government’s 11.0%
                                                           GDP, versus the government’s              at INR34.8trn, 0.9% above the
                    expectation.
                                                           6.8% projection. Nevertheless, our        FY21 revised estimate of INR34.5trn,
              •     A likely shortfall in projected        forecast does reflect our view for        and effectively maintaining its high
                    asset divestment receipts will         revenue collection to pick up on the      level of spending as per FY21 to
                    push up the government’s               back of an improvement in economic        revive growth in the economy
                    domestic market borrowing              activity, this drives our view that the   following the pandemic crisis. For
                    above budgeted levels over the         deficit will narrow compared to the       context, fiscal expenditures in the
                    coming quarters.                       government’s estimated shortfall of       revised FY21 estimates were already
                                                           9.5% of GDP in FY22.                      13.4% more than budget estimates
              •     We forecast public debt to
                    GDP to fall to 84.6% in FY22,          On the whole, we think that high          and 30% higher than actual FY20
                    from an estimated 86.7% in             government spending in the FY22           levels. Our estimate for FY22
                    FY21, as a recover y in the            budget will be very supportive of         central government expenditure
                    GDP level will offset a rise in        growth although this also brings the      is in line with the government
                    net borrowing.                         risk of fueling inflationary pressures.   at INR34.7trn. Key spending areas

                     Reboot | Reform | Resurge
               8     IMC Journal n January-February 2021
Knowledge

                       in FY22 remain in infrastructure                                                                  Of which INR1.1trn will be capital          financing of infrastructure investment
                       (transport, urban, power), healthcare,                                                            expenditures for road transport and         trusts and real estate investment
               e = Government Revised Estimates, f = Fitch Solutions forecast. Source: Budget Documents, Fitch Solutions
                       agriculture and rural development.                                                                highways. The government plans              trusts by foreign portfolio investors.
Government Raining Cash On The Economy
                                                                                                                         to complete 11,000km of national
                             No Change
The central government budgeted        expenditures for To     FY22 atExpenditure
                                                                         INR34.8trn, 0.9% above the FY21 revised estimate of
                                                                                                                                                                     In other areas of infrastructure
INR34.5trn, and effectively maintaining its high level of spending as per FY21 to revive growth in the economyhighway    following   corridors by March 2022.
                                                   Focus
the pandemic crisis. For context, fiscal expenditures                Areas
                                                           in the revised  FY21 estimates were already 13.4% more than                                               spending, the government has
budget estimates and 30% higher than actual FY20 levels. Our estimate for FY22 central government expenditure            Moreover,is   it has also planned for
in line with the government India         – Budget
                               at INR34.7trn.     Key spendingExpenditures,                         % (transport, urban,
                                                                   areas in FY22 remain in infrastructure                                                            budgeted INR3trn over a five-
power), healthcare, agriculture and rural development.                                                                   additional economic corridors such
                                                          Of Total                                                                                                   year period to reform the power
                                         No Change To Expenditure Focus Areas                                            as the 3500km National Highway
                                          India Ð Budget Expenditures, % Of Total                                                                                    distribution sector. Meanwhile,
                                                                                                                         works in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and
                                                                                                                                                                     INR2trn has been budgeted over five
                                                                                                                         West Bengal. In urban infrastructure,
                                                                                                                                                                     years for the government’s existing
                                                                                                                         over 1000km of metro lines are
                                                                                                                         under construction in 27 cities, with       production-linked incentive scheme
                                                                                                                         ongoing work on the Kochi Metro             to improve the scale and size of key
                                                                                                                         Railway, Chennai Metro Railway,             economic sectors.
                                                                                                                         Bengaluru Metro Railway, and the            INR2.2trn will be allocated towards
                                                                                                                         Nagpur Metro Railway.                       spending on health and wellbeing
                                        Source: Budget Documents, Fitch Solutions

                                                                                                         Outside budgetary support for capital                       in FY22, up 137% from the FY21
                               Source: Budget Documents,
Infrastructure spending was a key focus of the government during the FY22 Union Budget. In particular, capital
                                                                                                         spending, the Ministry of Railways
expenditure surged to INR5.54trn in the FY22 budget estimates, up 26% from INR4.39trn in the FY21 revised estimates.                                                 budget estimate of INR944bn. Of
                                     Fitch Solutions
Transport and power were key areas identified for capital investment.
                                                                                                         will also spend INR1.0trn on existing                       which, INR746bn will be allocated
                     Infrastructure spending was a key                                                   works on the Western Dedicated                              towards healthcare. The government
                     focus of the government during the                                                  Freight Corridor (DFC), and Eastern                         will inject INR641bn over six years
                     FY22 Union Budget. In particular,                                                   DFC, expected to be commissioned                            into a scheme to develop the capacity

                                                                                                                                                                                                              COVER STORY
                     capital expenditure surged to                                                       by June 2022. The government                                of health systems, strengthen existing
                     INR5.54trn in the FY22 budget                                                       will also set up a Development                              health institutions, and create new
                     estimates, up 26% from INR4.39trn                                                   Financial Institution to support and                        institutions. Additionally, INR350bn
                     in the FY21 revised estimates.                                                      manage long-term debt financing                             will be set aside for Covid-19
                     Transport and power were key areas                                                  for infrastructure projects, and                            vaccines, with the government ready
                     identified for capital investment.                                                  will capitalise this institution with                       to provide more funds if required.
                     A total of INR2.3trn has been                                                       INR200bn. Legislation reforms will                          Meanwhile, the government plans
                     budgeted for transport spending.                                                    also be implemented to allow debt                           to achieve universal water supply

                                                                                                                                                                           Reboot | Reform | Resurge
                                                                                                                                                                 IMC Journal n January-February 2021
                                                                                                                                                                                                        9
Knowledge
                                                                                                                     shortfall in asset divestment receipts against budget projections would subsequently imply higher domestic market
                                                                                                                     borrowing over and above the budgeted INR14.3trn to fund fiscal expenditures for FY22. While this theoretically implies
                                                                                                                     an upward push on longer-dated bond yields, we think that the central bank will continue to intervene to cap long end
                                                                                                                     yields, so as to avoid crowding out private sector borrowing.

                                                                                                                                                                  Set To Fall Slightly In FY22

              coverage in all urban local bodies           11.0% projection. There were no                                 India Ð Public Debt (Central And State), % of GDP

              and liquid waste management in all           changes to direct tax rates nor
              Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and            major announcements which would
              Urban Transformation (AMRUT)                 have a large impact on direct tax
              cities, with an outlay of INR2.8trn          collections (accounting for 50% of
              over five years.                             gross tax revenue). Separately, the
                                                           budget also announced plans to look
              Agriculture and rural development
                                                           into and rationalise certain segments
              will see a combined expenditure of
                                                           of custom duties come October 1                                           Source: Bloomberg, Fitch Solutions
              INR3.4trn in FY22. The government
                                                           2021.                                                  Source:
                                                                                           Public Debt Levels To Improve Slightly Bloomberg, Fitch Solutions
              has increased the allocation for the                                                                   We forecast public debt to GDP to fall to 84.6% in FY22, from an estimated 86.7% in FY21, as we expect a recovery in the
              Rural Infrastructure Development                                                                                            Public Debt L evels To Improve
                                                                                                                     GDP level to offset the rise in net borrowing. Rising borrowing will inevitably raise the government’s interest burden,
                                                           Divestments Likely To                                     which the government projects to be 23% of expenditures in FY22, however, the central bank intervening to cap long-
              Fund to INR400bn, from INR300bn                                                                                             Slightly
                                                                                                                     dated borrowing yields combined with the low interest environment will somewhat aid to slow the pace in which interest
                                                           Underperform Projections                                  burden rises.
              previously, as well as doubled the
                                                           L ooking at how the government                         We forecast public debt to GDP to fall
              Micro Irrigation Fund to INR100bn.                                           This report from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research is a product of Fitch Solutions Group Ltd, UK Company

              In the plans are also investments to         plans to finance its FY22 deficit,                     to 84.6%
                                                                                                  we number 08789939
                                                                                           registration                      ('FSG'). FSG in    FY22,
                                                                                                                                          is an affiliate        from
                                                                                                                                                          of Fitch           an
                                                                                                                                                                   Ratings Inc.       estimated
                                                                                                                                                                                ('Fitch Ratings'). FSG is solely responsible for
                                                                                           the content of this report, without any input from Fitch Ratings. Copyright © 2021 Fitch Solutions Group Limited. © Fitch
              develop modern fishing harbours and          believe that asset divestments       areGroup Limited86.7%
                                                                                           Solutions                                   in FY21, as we expect a
                                                                                                                     All rights reserved.

              seaweed cultivation. That said, the          unlikely to come in as high as the                     recovery in the GDP level to offset
              government expects to wind down              government’s INR1.7trn projection,                     the rise in net borrowing. Rising
              spending on a rural employment               with our estimates at INR400bn,                        borrowing will inevitably raise the
              scheme to INR730bn in FY22 as                somewhat similar to the average of                     government’s interest burden, which
              economic activity improves, from             previous years.                                        the government projects to be 23%
              INR1.1trn in the FY21 revised                                                                       of expenditures in FY22, however,
                                                           This is given persistent challenges
              estimates.                                                                                          the central bank intervening to cap
                                                           faced by the government in finding
COVER STORY

                                                                                                                  long-dated borrowing yields combined
                                                           buyers for its state assets. A
              Reforms And Banking Sector Aid               shortfall in asset divestment receipts                 with the low interest environment
              Also Announced                               against budget projections would                       will somewhat aid to slow the pace in
              In the budget, the government also           subsequently imply higher domestic                     which interest burden rises.
              announced that it would relax the            market borrowing over and above the                                            This report from Fitch Solutions
              foreign direct investment ownership          budgeted INR14.3trn to fund fiscal                                             Country Risk & Industry Research
              cap in the insurance sector to 74%,          expenditures for FY22. While this                                              is a product of Fitch Solutions
              from 49% previously, allowing foreign        theoretically implies an upward push                                           Group Ltd, UK Company registration
              players to have majority control in          on longer-dated bond yields, we think                                          number 08789939 (‘FSG’). FSG is an
              domestic insurance firms. Regarding          that the central bank will continue                                            affiliate of Fitch Ratings Inc. (‘Fitch
              the banking sector, public sector            to intervene to cap long end yields,                                           Ratings’). FSG is solely responsible
              banks will receive recapitalisation          so as to avoid crowding out private                                            for the content of this report, without
              of INR200bn, while an asset                  sector borrowing.                                                              any input from Fitch Ratings.
              reconstruction company will be set                                                                                          Copyright © 2021 Fitch Solutions
                                                               Set To Fall Slightly In FY22
              up to manage the toxic assets in the                                                                                        Group Limited. © Fitch Solutions
                                                              India – Public Debt (Central And
              sector. INR15bn will also be allocated                                                                                      Group Limited All rights reserved.
                                                                      State), % of GDP
              towards the use of digital payments.

              Funding Projections Shaky
              The      government       projects
              revenue collection of INR17.8trn
              in FY22, which reflect its
              expectation for revenue to recover
              by 15% from INR15.5trn in FY21.
              By contrast, we are forecasting
              revenues of INR16.9trn in FY22,
              given our less optimistic real GDP
              growth forecast of 9.5% for the
              fiscal year versus the government’s

                     Reboot | Reform | Resurge
              10     IMC Journal n January-February 2021
Knowledge

                              Budget 2021-22:
                        Enhanced focus on digitisation
                                      Geeta Ramrakhiani and Urvashi Agarwal

The Finance Minister presented the        (8)   Procedural relaxations.                 (2)   No deduction for delayed
Union Budget 2021-22 on 1 February                                                            deposit of employee’s
2021. With massive investments            (1)   Slump exchange and                            contribution
by the Indian government in                     depreciation on goodwill                      Currently, taxpayers claim
digitisation of the tax processes,              Slump exchange taxable                        employees’         contribution
the future of tax compliances lies                                                            deposited after the due date
in faceless tax compliances and                 Currently ‘slump sale’ is
                                                                                              prescribed under the relevant
assessments. The Government of                  defined to mean transfer of
                                                                                              Acts, but before the filing of
India is working towards introducing            one or more undertakings as
                                                                                              the return of income. However,
dynamic jurisdiction to impart                  a result of sale for a lump
                                                                                              this has been an area of
greater efficiency, transparency and            sum consideration without
                                                                                              litigation and various High
accountability, and to also eliminate           values being assigned to the
                                                                                              Courts have taken divergent
human inter face to the extent                  individual assets and liabilities
                                                                                              views in this regard. It is
                                                in such transactions. If the

                                                                                                                                  COVER STORY
technologically feasible.                                                                     proposed to clarify by insertion
                                                business was transferred for a
While the central theme of the                                                                of an Explanation, stating that
                                                non-monetary consideration,
Budget has been digitising most                                                               employee’s contribution which
                                                based on favourable judicial
of the tax processes, extension of                                                            is deposited after the due date
                                                precedents an argument was
some of the existing incentives was                                                           prescribed under the relevant
                                                taken that slump exchange is
inevitable during these testing times.                                                        Acts, but before the due date
                                                not taxable. It is now proposed
The Budget also proposed to ease                                                              of filing the return of income
                                                to amend the definition of
out some compliance burden and                                                                is not allowable as a deduction,
                                                the term ‘slump sale’ so as
rationalise certain provisions in order                                                       on the basis that the same has
                                                to include ‘slump exchange’
to avoid long drawn litigations.                                                              been deposited before the due
                                                within the term from
                                                                                              date of filing the return of
The key Budget proposals are                    assessment year (“AY”) 2021-
                                                                                              income. While, the proposed
classified into eight baskets as under:         22 and onwards. In view of
                                                                                              Explanation indicates that the
                                                this, tax implications on the
(1)   Slump       exchange      and                                                           clarification is retrospective in
                                                proposed slump exchanges will
      depreciation on goodwill;                                                               nature but the Memorandum
                                                now need to be reviewed.
                                                                                              explaining the provisions of
(2)   No deduction for delayed
                                                Goodwill not to be considered                 the Finance Bill states that
      deposit     of employee’s
                                                as a depreciable asset                        the said amendment will apply
      contribution;
                                                                                              from AY 2021-22 and onwards.
                                                Based on favourable tax
(3)   Tax incentives;
                                                rulings, taxpayers were able to
                                                                                        (3)   Tax incentives
(4)   Higher tax withholding for non-           claim depreciation on acquired
      filers;                                   goodwill as depreciation on                   Extending incentives for
                                                intangibles. It is proposed that              affordable rental housing and
(5)   Tax deducted at source
                                                from AY 2021-22, depreciation                 start-ups
      (“TDS”) on purchase of goods;
                                                will no longer be available on                The tax holiday period in
(6)   Widening the scope            of          future acquisitions as well                   relation to affordable housing
      equalisation levy (“EQL”);                as on goodwill, appearing as                  developers has been extended
(7)   Reducing compliance life cycle;           opening written down value in                 to 31 March 2022. Further,
      and                                       the intangible asset block.                   affordable rental housing

                                                                                              Reboot | Reform | Resurge
                                                                                    IMC Journal n January-February 2021
                                                                                                                           11
Knowledge

                    project (to be notified) will also           from 1 July 2021 as under:               credit for purchase of goods,
                    eligible for 100% tax holiday.                                                        whichever is earlier. These
                                                             Particulars      TDS        TCS              provisions are not applicable
                    Deduction towards interest
                                                           A. At twice       Higher    Higher             on – (i) transaction which
                    on loan, taken for purchase
                                                           the rate          of A or   of A or            attracts TDS under other
                    of affordable housing project          specified in      B or C    B                  provisions of the Act, or (ii)
                    is proposed to be extended in          the relevant                                   TCS under provisions, other
                    respect of loans that may be           provision of                                   than TCS on sale of goods.
                    sanctioned up to 31 March              the Income-
                                                                                                          The specified buyer is the one
                    2022.                                  tax Act, 1961
                                                           (“the Act”)                                    whose sales, gross receipts or
                    Capital gains exemption for                                                           turnover from business carried
                                                           B. At the rate
                    incentivising investment in                                                           on by him exceeds INR 100
                                                           of five percent
                    start-ups will be extended to                                                         million during financial year
                                                           C. At twice                 Not                (“FY”) immediately preceding
                    31 March 2022.
                                                           the rate or                 Appl
                                                                                                          the relevant FY .
                    Exemption for Leave Travel             rates in force              icable
                    Concession (“LTC ”) cash
                                                                                                    (6)   Widening the scope of
                    scheme
                                                                                                          EQL
                                                                 Specified person is defined to
                    Cash allowance in lieu of LTC                                                         Finance Act, 2020 expanded
                                                                 mean:
                    is proposed to be exempt,                                                             the scope of EQL provisions so
                    subject to conditions (to be                 —     A person who has not               as to provide that non-resident
                    prescribed). Some indicative                       filed return of income             ecommerce operators are liable
                    conditions are as follows:                         for two immediate years            to pay EQL at the rate of 2%
COVER STORY

                                                                       preceding the year in              on consideration received or
                    a)    Employee exercises the
                                                                       which tax is required be           receivable by an ‘ecommerce
                          option for deemed LTC
                                                                       deducted/collected;                operator’ from provision /
                          fare in lieu of applicable
                                                                                                          facilitation of ‘e-commerce
                          LTC for the 2018-2021                  —     Time limit to file return          supply or services’. It is now
                          block;                                       of income under section            proposed to clarif y the EQL
                    b)    Expenditure to be                            139(1) of the Act, for             provisions as under:
                          incurred      from    12                     the    aforementioned
                                                                       period has expired; and            a)    EQL will not apply
                          October 2020 to 31
                                                                                                                on consideration that
                          March 2021 on goods or                 —     Aggregate of TDS and                     is chargeable to tax
                          services liable to GST at                    TCS     exceeds    INR                   as royalty or fees for
                          12% or above;
                                                                       50,000 in each of the                    technical services under
                    c)    Amount of exemption                          two preceding years;                     the Act or tax treaties.
                          shall not exceed lower
                                                                 A non-resident not having a              b)    EQL shall be applicable
                          of - (i) INR 36,000
                                                                 permanent establishment in                     on e-commerce supply
                          per person; or (ii)
                                                                 India is specifically excluded.                or services irrespective
                          one-third of the above
                          expenditure;                                                                          of     whether         the
                                                           (5)   TDS on purchase of goods                       e-commerce operator
                    d)    Payment is through                     TCS is applicable on sale of                   owns the goods or
                          banking channels.                      goods at the rate of 0.1% w.e.f.               provides / facilitates the
                                                                 1 October 2020. It is now                      services.
              (4)   Higher tax withholding for                   proposed that w.e.f. 1 July              c)    Income subject to EQL
                    non-filers                                   2021, TDS will be applicable                   will be exempt from
                    To ensure filing of return                   on purchase of goods in excess                 income-tax from 1 April
                    of income, higher TDS/Tax                    of INR 5 million, by a specified               2020 onwards.
                    collected at source (“TCS”)                  buyer at the rate of 0.10% (5%
                    rates are proposed in case of                in case PAN is not furnished)            d)    Definition of the term
                    specified persons with effect                at the time of payment or                      “online sale of goods”

                     Reboot | Reform | Resurge
              12     IMC Journal n January-February 2021
Knowledge

                  and “online provision               Proposed time limits for completion                         digital transactions and
                  of services” is now                 of regular assessment as applicable                         also reduce compliance
                  expanded to include one             for AY 2020-21 and AY 2021-22 are                           burden.
                  or more of the following            as under:
                  activities taking place
                                                                                                         Cases not
                  online:                                                                               referred to
                                                                                                                           Cases refe-
                                                                                                       the Transfer
                  (i)     acceptance of offer               AY          Timeline prescribed                                rred to the
                                                                                                           Pricing
                          for sale;                                                                                           TPO
                                                                                                           Officer
                                                                                                          (“TPO”)
                  (ii)    placing       the
                          purchase order;              2020-21        12 months from the end 31                 March 31 March 2023
                                                                      of the relevant AY plus 12 2022
                  (iii) acceptance of the                             months in cases which are
                        purchase order;                               referred to the TPO
                                                       2021-22        9 months from the end of 31 December 31   December
                  (iv)    payment           of                        the relevant AY plus 12 2022         2023
                          consideration; or                           months in cases referred
                                                                      to the TPO
                  (v)     supply of goods
                                                      The timelines for reopening
                          or provision of                                                                  b)     Income of foreign
                                                      completed assessment or tax returns
                          services, partly or                                                                     institutional investors
                                                      which have escaped assessments
                          wholly.                                                                                 from securities will
                                                      is proposed to be reduced from six

                                                                                                                                              COVER STORY
                                                      years to three years, if the tax officer                    be subject to TDS at
(7)     Reducing compliance life                                                                                  the rate of 20% or
                                                      is in possession of information which
        cycle                                                                                                     relevant tax treaty rate,
                                                      suggests that income chargeable to
        In view of the digitisation of                tax has escaped assessment. The                             whichever is lower.
        tax processes, the due date for               time-limit is proposed to be increased                      The      role   of    the
        submission of tax returns are                 to 10 years in certain specified cases.                     government in digitising
        proposed to be reduced from
                                                                                                                  the compliance and
        AY 2020-21 as under:                          (8)   Procedural relaxations
                                                                                                                  litigation procedures is
 Particulars        Existing due        Proposed
                                                            a)     The turnover threshold                         commendable. However,
                    date                due date                   for applicability of tax                       the process needs to be
 Belated return     Last date of the    T h r e e                  audit is now proposed                          evolved over the next
                    relevant AY (i.e.   m o n t h s
 Revised return     31 March)           before the                 to be further enhanced                         few years. Till such
                                        end of the                 from INR 50 million                            time, taxpayers will have
                                        relevant
                                        AY (i.e.31                 to INR 100 million                             to go through the mill.
                                        December)
                                                                   (i.e. Euro 0.56 million                        It is important that the
The timelines for issuance of notices                              to Euro 1.13 million)                          challenges and hardships
for assessments or processing of                                   for the taxpayers who                          faced by the taxpayers
income tax returns are also proposed                               carry out 95% of their                         in the implementation
to be reduced by three months.                                     transactions digitally,                        of digital compliances
Revised time limits are as under:                                  in order to incentivise                        is addressed in a timely
                                                                                                                  and efficient manner.
 Particulars                        Existing due date        Proposed due date
 Time-limit to process 31 March (i.e. 1 year 31 December (i.e. 9 months                              Information for the editor for
 tax returns           from the end of the from the end of the relevant                              reference purposes only
                       relevant AY)          AY)
                                                                                                     Geeta Ramrakhiani is Director with
 Notice for selection of 6 months from the 3 months from the end of                                  Deloitte Haskins and Sells LLP and
 a case for assessment end of the relevant AY the relevant AY (i.e. 30 June)                         Urvashi Agarwal is Deputy Manager
                         (i.e. 30 September)
                                                                                                     with Deloitte Haskins and Sells LLP

                                                                                                           Reboot | Reform | Resurge
                                                                                                 IMC Journal n January-February 2021
                                                                                                                                       13
Knowledge

                         Does the budget have the Midas touch?
                        Let us see through the Fog with Insight
                        and Clarity in this recovery of a Century

                                                                  Anirudh Gupta
                                CEO & Certified Corporate Director (Institute of Directors) Ashiana Financial Services

              Does the budget have the Midas               below.                                     0.50 % depending on the quality of
              touch? Let us see through the Fog            What do you expect from the                the paper in the 2-5 year Category.
              with Insight and Clarity in this             Budget?                                    The only silver lining is Oil is in a
              recovery of a Century.                                                                  range acceptable to India’s long term
                                                           Lower Taxes                    – 30%
              The Budget is a statement of intent.                                                    interests, however as the commodity
                                                           Better Long term direction – 30%           cycle is picking up, it needs to be
              It also shows on what priorities
              the country’s finances are focused           Relief for the needy           – 10%       watched. This in the past has led to
              on. This budget rightly focuses on           Better policy making           – 30%       earnings upgrade especially with the
              creation of a stronger health care                                                      Infrastructure theme being supported
                                                           Basis this as there is no
              system and doubles the pace on                                                          in a big way by the government.
                                                           enhancement of tax slabs our
              infrastructure creation particularly         research team rates it a 7 out of 10.      Every budget leads to creation of an
              roadways and also strives to look at                                                    opportunity or a change in policy
                                                           If you are looking at markets from         which leads to creation of that
              correcting the imbalances in the
COVER STORY

                                                           a business exit point of view then         opportunity. Let us examine the key
              power sector. The government rightly
                                                           maybe you need to keep the tax             elements which can have a multiplier
              so has considered a good choice of
                                                           considerations in mind and you             effect
              creating assets and is leading from
                                                           may need specialized advice there.
              the front which has been indicated
                                                           However for most part of it all the        1.    Bank Recapitalization:
              in a conscious stance to increase the
                                                           tax rules continue to be the same                 PSU Banks have been merged
              fiscal deficit to 6.5% of GDP for the
                                                           for long term and short term capital       with the consequence that most of
              coming year and a strong medium
                                                           gains across asset classes.                the bad loans have been provided for.
              term approach for asset creation.
              Since we have strong reserves this is        Is there any change?                       There could be some opportunities
              not likely to impact us as a Country         No, not as far as the critical decisions   as an Investor from a tactical point
              if things go wrong.                          go.                                        of view. That said most of the PSU
                                                                                                      banks are not as well run on return
              More importantly it also looks at            A question which comes to mind is
                                                                                                      ratios as they could be. Therefore we
              creating a development financial             how will this be funded?
                                                                                                      recommend them selectively on a
              institution which would have an              One way is disinvestment wherein           case to case basis.
              overall book of 20000 crores with 10         heavy weights like LIC and BPCL
              times the ability to leverage deposits.      are likely to hit the markets next         2.    NBFC Funding:
              This is particularly important as            financial year. Also 2 Public sector              The funding has increased
              we seek to emerge out of China’s             banks and 1 general insurer will be        from 7 lakh crores to 8 lakh crores in
              influence in Asia.                           privatized. Also the vivad se vishwas      the last quarter. This is important as
              For the bygones in the stressed asset        scheme is gaining traction and has         many companies are not qualified to
              space an asset management company            already collected close to 1 lakh          take a loan from mainstream banks.
              approach is advised which is similar         crore.It is also being extended till       They rely on NBFC’s for funding
              to a bad bank approach. These are            Feb 28, therefore a possibility of         gaps. This apart from the government
              good ideas if done for a limited time        higher numbers happening would             support is likely to grow as most
              frame as it can create a negative            help in meeting the enhanced Capital       people have parked their savings in
              impact on accountability related             expenditure numbers.                       deposits last year from a safety view
              issues and create a conflict of interest     This already is showing some               and Banks will have a higher capacity
              issue within Public Sector Banks.            strain on government finances and          to lend. That said the capex cycle is
              Our team did a poll on LinkedIn on           the result is increase in interest         not expected to start before March
              prebudget expectations with a 1000           rates by 0.20% in the short term           2023 which implies that Banks may
              plus views, the result we are sharing        categor y (upto 2 years) & 0.40-           lend to NBFC ’s a bit more. This

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              14     IMC Journal n January-February 2021
Knowledge

is so as earlier Banks have burnt          utility oriented sector it is a cashcow,              Alternatively one could look at
their hands in infrastructure related      however till the ground level issues           Zero Coupon Bonds which have a
lending wherein they are likely to         are sorted this does not appear to be          similar taxation effect.
fund housing and other relatively          investment worthy.
sure and safe bets.                                                                       3.     Real Estate
                                           8.    Defence
                                                                                                As per numerous studies
3.    Affordable Housing                         In this sector orders are                conducted on the sector from time to
        The tax holiday has been           slower to be executed. Also there              time the oversupply for Residential
extended by one year to March              are a couple of companies which                housing is in the region of 36-60
2022.Investment in housing has             operate at scale in this sector. Since
                                                                                          months depending on micro market.
a multiplier effect of 8 from an           as an opportunity it is large, most
                                           likely weapons will be procured                       Considering the fact one needs
employment perspective. This is
                                           from outside India as in many areas            to look at it selectively and are likely
likely to address the employment
gap to some degree. Depending upon         we lack technology and technology              in the region of 8-12% gross returns
fulfillment for housing for all targets    transfers come at a steep price                basis commodity price rise over a
laid down by the concerned ministry,       considering the not so successful              period of time.
the extension may happen.                  Joint Venture Model in this sector
                                           over the years.                                4.     Alternate Assets
4.    Agriculture                                                                               Alternate assets like Hedge
                                           9.    Railways                                 funds can be considered from a cash
       Agricultural credit target set
by the Finance Ministry is 16.5 lakh             The FM has been generous                 flow perspective.
crores.This is aimed towards animal        in allocations. That said Railways
                                                                                                Any areas in which one may
husbandry, dairies and fisheries. This     is more of a social enterprise
                                                                                          need to plan differently?
is likely to provide stimulus to the       considering the operating ratios
                                           published by the Government from                      Two major pointers come to

                                                                                                                                     COVER STORY
economy going forward. In the listed
                                           time to time.                                  mind
space opportunities are relatively less,
however it does affect the broader         Given all this what are the options                   1.    PF: If the PF is above
markets.                                   from an Investment perspective?                             250000 per annum, the
                                                                                                       amount above that will
5.    Infrastructure                       1.   Equity/Equity         Oriented                         be taxed for interest
                                                 opportunities
       Zero Coupon Bonds in                                                                            income.
Infrastructure Investment Trusts                 India is a good long term
                                                                                                       One of our clients
would be good opportunity from an          opportunity and needs to be thought
                                                                                                       pays 6 lakhs in PF per
investment point of view. These are        on those lines. Next Ten-fifteen years
                                                                                                       annum.3.5 lakhs is
also efficient from a taxation point of    are critical from a growth point of
                                           view for India.                                             additional.
view. Considering the need for funds
for the sector this is a good move.              To become a developed nation                          The interest earned on
                                           the government is taking all steps                          3.5 lakhs will attract
6.    Roadways                             and we are on our way to build                              taxation as per your tax
      Despite a tough covid situation      growth over a period of time on the                         slab.
3800 kms of roadways has been              back of strong infrastructure spends                  2.    ULIP’s: Unit Linked
constructed so far for the year.           and consumption which increases                             Insurance plans as
Another 11000 kms are likely to be         over a period of time as connectivity                       they are called will not
completed by March 2022.Cement             increases.                                                  have a tax free status
companies with lower utilization                 We can look forward to the                            if premium is above
levels may be looked at from a             next decade for a double digit returns                      2.5 lakhs to bring
medium term point of view.                 from a markets standpoint.                                  parity between Mutual
                                                                                                       Funds and Insurance
7.    Power                                2.    Debt Funds
                                                                                                       companies.
       A revamped reforms-based                   Commodity prices and a
                                           stretch at the fiscal deficit are                    Therefore       any     ULIP’s
result-linked power distribution sector
                                           likely to create conditions of higher          purchased after 1.2.2021 need to
scheme will be launched with an
outlay of `3, 05, 984 crores over          inflation. This is likely to result in         be planned on this basis. It is not
5 years to consider viability. This        higher interest rates over a period of         applicable to older policies.
is likely to bring the next level of       time. A return of 7-7.5% on a post                   That said, it depends on policy
accountability for a critical sector       tax basis can be expected over a 3             execution on the ground. May we
for the country’s progress. Being a        year period.                                   choose wisely.

                                                                                                 Reboot | Reform | Resurge
                                                                                      IMC Journal n January-February 2021
                                                                                                                              15
Knowledge

                                  Budget 2021 – Setting the Pace
                                for a Resilient V-shaped Trajectory
                                                               CA Minita Khanchandani

             The world has endured a year of the          The Union Budget 2021-22 was            companies and asset management
             unexpected onslaught by COVID-19             founded on the 6 pillars –              companies would takeover stressed
             virus. The virus has posed an                                                        assets and manage them to later on
                                                          1)    Health and Well-being;
             unprecedented challenge for policy                                                   dispose them to potential buyers.
             making, globally and nationally. It has      2)    Physical and Financial Capital;   While the concept of bad banks by
             tested the mettle of policymakers to                                                 itself is not new, it is expected to
             deal with uncertain, fluid, complex          3)    Inclusive Development for
                                                                                                  strike a chord specially in this Covid-
             and dynamic situations having far-                 Aspirational India;
                                                                                                  ridden environment wherein the
             reaching socio-economic implications.        4)    Reinvigorating Human Capital;     NPAs are likely to go up.
             It has also tested the frontiers of
             medical science, which rose to the           5)    Innovation and R&D; and           A number of initiatives on the
             challenge by developing an effective                                                 corporate law from such as
                                                          6)    Minimum Government and            strengthening the NCLT regime,
             vaccine within a year.
                                                                Maximum Governance.               widening the ambit for small
             India has far exceeded its fiscal                                                    companies, incentivizing one person
                                                          With real estate and infrastructure
             deficit target due to higher spending                                                companies and permitting non-
TAX CORNER

                                                          being the critical economic engines
             to stimulate the economy amidst the                                                  residents to set up foreign companies
                                                          of the Indian Economy, the present
             pandemic and has budget the deficit
                                                          emphasis on providing an impetus        in India are also on the cards.
             at 6.8% of GDP for 2021-22. While
                                                          to infrastructure is quite the          Decriminalisation of the LLP Act,
             the net tax revenues are expected to
                                                          highlight. Furthermore, unveiling       introduction of alternate methods for
             grow at ~14%, the said revenues are
                                                          the disinvestment strategy by the       debt resolution as well as introduction
             not expected out of increase in taxes
                                                          government, the anticipated capital     of a special framework for MSMEs is
             or surcharges, as was anticipated.
                                                          inflows are to be on account of the     also on the cards.
             Further, for curbing the fiscal deficit,
                                                          much awaited LIC IPO coupled with
             in addition to the capital receipts                                                  Moving on from the macro to the
                                                          the privatization of various public
             of ` 1.75 lakh crores expected from                                                  micro front, the key tax proposals
                                                          sector banks as well as certain PSUs.
             disinvestment proceeds of several                                                    were as follows:
             public sector undertakings, significant      Bringing in certain regulator y
             borrowings (about 15 lakh crores)            liberalisation so as to amp up the      Impetus to affordable housing
             are budgeted to be raised, thereby           ease of doing business scenario         under “Housing for All”
             increasing the GDP to borrowing              in India was again one of the           •     In order to incentivize
             ratio.                                       noteworthy features. Consolidating            affordable housing, make
                                                          the securities’ laws into a unified           available low cost funds to
             Against this backdrop, the Finance
                                                          code would address various                    home buyers and to boost the
             Minister presented the Union Budget
                                                          interpretational challenges amongst           ‘Housing for All’ incentive by
             for the year 2021-22
                                                          these regulations. Suggesting a
                                                                                                        the Government, the Finance
                                                          permanent institutional framework
                                                                                                        Act, 2020 had introduced a
                                                          so as to mobilise the corporate bond
                                                                                                        Section 80EEA wherein
                                                          market wherein retail investors can
                                                                                                        a deduction of up to INR
                                                          participate in such issues. Raising
                                                                                                        1,50,000 shall be available
                                                          the investment limit for foreign
                                                                                                        incase of a house property
                                                          investments in the insurance sector
                                                                                                        the stamp duty value of which
                                                          has also garnered positive responses.
                                                                                                        does not exceed INR 45 Lakhs
                                                          Another upcoming feature is the ‘bad          and the time period for the
                                                          banks’ wherein asset reconstruction           sanction of the loan should be

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             16     IMC Journal n January-February 2021
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