WILL PRIVATISATION IMPACT FORECASTING FOR CORRECTIONAL SERVICES?
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WILL PRIVATISATION IMPACT
FORECASTING FOR
CORRECTIONAL SERVICES?
Stephen Carter
MANY GOVERNMENTS ARE POSING THE QUESTION:
Will privatisation of correctional services impact the quantity and quality of
services?
For years to come, the debate over the quality of private correctional services, in
contrast to those traditionally provided by the public sector will continue. This paper
does not attempt to draw conclusions regarding the quality of the service delivered, but
focuses more upon the issue of the private sector, increasing the supply of bedspace
and, thus, impacting the demand for services. Decision-makers have raised the question
of "net-widening" (placing more persons under community control by virtue of seeking
alternatives to traditional incarceration), and in some situations in the United States,
due to the construction of speculative private facilities, the "net-widening" issue is
abundantly real. In establishing the legal and political climate for privatising
correctional services, there should be an awareness that there are inherent issues
regarding future forecasting that deserve consideration. Some of these issues are
summarised as follows.
n While forecasting methods remain relatively constant, a change in the supply
of services or bedspace (to include probation assignments) will influence the
characteristics of demand (that is, targeting certain offender groups).
n The tendency is to visualise privatisation in terms of law enforcement
(security guards) or corrections (remand centres or prisons), yet diminish the
influence that privatisation is having upon the demand for community and
probationary services. Taken singularly, the impact of a private prison has a
minimal impact on a system-wide basis. However, the potential implication of
expanded private services in community-based corrections and intermediate
sanctions is potentially very significant.The Issues Corrections
n Within the corrections field, services are becoming so specialised that micro-
forecasting is essential to provide a balanced correctional system. One of our
greatest challenges (and opportunities) in corrections is achieving a greater
accuracy in predicting the need, and not simply the numbers.
n With the government offering the private sector a management role, the
opportunity to broaden the range of rehabilitative services for specialised or
targeted offender groups, such as the mentally impaired, sex offenders, and
handicapped prisoners is vastly enhanced.
n If government accepts the partnership with private sector, forecasting must
move away from the traditional macro-based (that is, quantities of bedspace)
to a micro-based (service needs) forecasting approach.
n A desired result of the partnership between the public and private sectors is to
achieve a more efficient (value for money) and effective (reduced recidivism)
correctional system. The use of private services and management, without
regard for the implications on the characteristics of future demand, could
result in the creation of two separate systems of incarceration: one for the
easy to manage; and one for others.
Framework for Private Initiatives
Thus far, the movement towards the privatisation of correctional services (and
facilities) in the United States have been faster than anticipated. However, the reasons
for privatisation remain confused and questionable, both in the minds of policy-makers
and the general public. The initiative for private adult incarceration began on the
premise of more service for less money. To a publicly elected official with competing
demands for diminishing resources, this becomes an attractive offer. Therefore, private
correctional services tend to be "generated" in the following ways.
n Political (elected officials) Policy-makers seek private management of
services and facilities as a way of 1) lowering the publicly employed numbers;
2) comparing cost for services; and 3) improving the quality of service.
n Operator a government agency (sheriff's office) Determines that
operating a correctional facility is a political and financial liability.
n User (special inmate needs) Certain categories of inmate groups, such as
work-release, have requirements that are difficult to meet through public
sector funding and operational limits.
n Special interest groups Some advocacy groups (juveniles in particular)
initiate the idea for private services as a means of
120Will Privatisation Impact Forecasting for Correctional Services?
enhancing public awareness of selected prisoner constituency groups and
providing a more focused service.
n Judiciary/courts The court, especially in the case of habitual repeat
substance abuse offenders, in concert with crowded publicly run facilities, will
often order the defendant held in facilities or programs with a specialised
mission.
n Service providers Once a service or management contract has been
awarded to a private organisation, the most convenient form of market
expansion is to broaden the range of services to the existing client.
The demand for correctional services can be generated by one, or a combination,
of the above groups. One can argue that these groups are merely responding to
system-wide demand. In the public sector, this is essentially the case. However, the
provision of private services generally follows the theory of volume expansion and,
thus, the need becomes based more upon persuasion than prediction.
In the United States, the major generators of privatisation services have been a
partnership between political officials and private management groups. The reason,
almost exclusively, has been a perceived lower cost by elected officials. This
perception, which has proven accurate in many instances, has given rise to a new
phenomenon of speculative facilities that can impact predictive models in that it shifts
the approach from a demand- to a supply-generated base. While this is not necessarily
negative, and can be quite positive in more rapidly meeting the need for expanded
service, if the speculative approach (such as the private hospital movement) provision
of correctional services and facilities was expanded substantially, forecasting methods
would need to be amended.
The parallel to private hospitals should not be overlooked. A needs-based
modelling technique defines a market for bedspace and services. The private sector
responds by constructing new facilities, often with specialised health care missions, and
the health care community fills the bedspace. This is a form of net-widening within the
medical field, and is successful as long as government or private sector insurance will
offset the cost of hospitalisation. Again, at issue is not the ethics of speculation in
health care services or facilities, but the implications upon needs-based forecasting.
As with the privatisation of health care facilities, speculative ventures in the
private prisons management sector are often market-driven, relying for their success
more upon promotions and sales than quality of services. This speculative prisons fad
in the United States for adult institutions is uniquely American and, thus far,
unsuccessful. As it relates to forecasting, the distinction between government-
sponsored and speculative institutions should be clearly defined. In simple terms, if the
private sector "widens the net" of services and/or facilities, it can eventually have an
impact upon forecasting because the supply side will be altered.
121The Issues Corrections
A very logical role for the private sector is to respond to well-documented
demand through the provision of services that are less efficient or effective for
government to provide. The need for specialised correctional services is becoming
more apparent and, with the availability of expertise in financing through the private
sector, this government identified need could be more efficiently met. The focus of this
discussion, therefore, will shift to the impact that privatisation can have upon micro-
forecasting of specialised services within corrections. These service needs are
generated as much through user groups (inmates and advocates) as through
government actions. If a role and responsibility of the private sector to augment and
extend services of government has been accepted on an ethical, political and practical
basis, then the impact upon forecasting can become more predictable.
Factors Influencing Demand
The traditional factors that influence the demand for incarceration require close
scrutiny, followed by an assessment of how the forecast would change with greater
private sector involvement. If needs determination is a centralised function of
government, as is the case in New Zealand and Great Britain, then the concern over
"net-widening" is lessened, in contrast to the United States where forecasting for
correctional needs is carried out by at least four separate levels of government.
Some of the traditional dominating factors that influence the demand for
incarceration include the following:
• public attitudes about crime and punishment;
• number, and effectiveness, of law enforcement personnel;
• size and plight of the under-class;
• employment/unemployment;
• housing availability and conditions;
• legislative activism;
• sentencing guidelines;
• judicial attitudes, performance, and effectiveness;
• welfare system caseloads and responsiveness;
• available bedspace.
Several of the variables above can be quantified, while others are, at best,
qualified. Private sector intervention would most directly be measurable in items 2, 5,
and 10. For example, at the present time in the United States, there are more private
sector security guards than public law enforcement personnel. This trend is likely to
continue and dramatically increases the
122Will Privatisation Impact Forecasting for Correctional Services?
number of individuals empowered to apprehend. The private sector's involvement in
expanding housing supply and improving conditions is well-documented. However,
fickle financing markets have dramatically decreased the construction of low-income
housing, thus substantially expanding the number of homeless persons. These persons
often become entangled in the criminal justice system, primarily due to the lack of
adequate shelter.
The provision of speculative bedspace is, as noted earlier, uniquely American.
However, if this trend were to continue, on an expanded scale, at a local county or
state level, needs analysis could be measurably impacted.
Perhaps a more useful discussion would be the degree to which private corrections
involvement could redefine how need is satisfied and, ultimately, the demand for and
types of bedspace available. The following are examples of where private sector
intervention could impact the demand for type of bedspace:
• mental health;
• women;
• pre-release;
• special needs (sex offenders, substance abusers, geriatrics);
• low-risk incarceration.
With the exception of low-risk incarceration, all of the above are specialised in
nature and generally require unique qualifications to deliver a quality service. While
government is capable of doing so, in the United States, it has been difficult to attract
and maintain highly specialised professionals in publicly-run prison systems.
In addition to a role for the private sector in specialised prison facilities, the
requirement for reducing inmate idleness and improving the quality of life is rapidly
expanding, due to significant judicial influence in the operation of prisons in the United
States. The requirement to reduce inmate idleness and prepare the individual for a
more successful return to the community requires a broadening of the quantity and
quality of services offered to meet this objective. Some of these areas that do not
necessarily impact the quantity of services, but impact the quality include:
• food service;
• staff training;
• vocational training;
• academic education;
• industries;
• transportation of prisoners;
123The Issues Corrections
• financing of facilities;
• health care.
Without exception, companies are already in existence that provide these and
other services to government on a fee basis.
Of these services, food service and health care have been privatised in the
American prison system well in advance of private management schemes. In both the
US and Australia, one of the fastest growing areas of privatised services at this time is
prison industries. Also, the United Kingdom is seeking to privatise the movement of
prisoners from prisons to courts on a national basis, as well as the provision of
educational services.
Private sector involvement in the provision of these services may have little to do
with changing forecasting methods, but a great deal to do with the quality of service
provided. The successful provision of these and other services by the private sector
tends to enhance the willingness of government to consider complete private
management in many jurisdictions.
The factors that influence demand for correctional services are generally external
to the control of the contracting agency (that is, public attitudes towards
incarceration). Therefore, the private sector is most often assigned a role in the
provision of services or bedspace, rather than a generator of demand.
Impact of Private Correctional Services Upon Demand Forecasting
If the privatisation of correctional services has a long-term future, a partnership-
responsibility-accountability role must be required. Currently, government is "pushing
down" to private operators the responsibility and accountability, but rarely the
partnership role. In contrast, in the health care field, a sense of partnership seems to
exist between government and private sector. The overall objective is focused upon
achieving a higher quality of community and personal care. In the United States, this
objective is enhanced through a Certificate of Need process. Under this approach, a
private health care facility cannot receive a licence without a Certificate of Need being
prepared by the private company and agreed upon by licensing organisations. The
market research necessary to justify the need for additional health care beds, and the
approvals process is rigorous.
If applied in the corrections area, government could forecast general requirements
and request proposals from private sector as to how these needs could be met, both
through the construction of bedspace and/or the provision of alternative community-
based sanctions. The presumed advantage of the private sector's involvement would be
to reduce the time required to complete a facility or develop a community-based
program and reduce the need for government to raise capital.
This approach cannot be achieved without a partnership between the public and
private sectors. Many components of the criminal justice system have a role in assuring
a successful partnership. The judiciary can influence the quantity and quality of private
services by defining the expectation of incarceration in meting out sentences. For
example, it is estimated that more
124Will Privatisation Impact Forecasting for Correctional Services?
than 50 per cent of those persons receiving sentences on a daily basis in the US court
system have histories of substance abuse. If the judiciary were to require not only the
incarceration (if appropriate), but the rehabilitation of the offender, then the
characteristic of incarceration could be dramatically altered. If, on the other hand, the
expectation is exclusively punishment, the involvement of the private sector should be
closely questioned due to ethical and legal issues. If rehabilitation and a reduction in
recidivism are the objective, then the private sector could have a significant role in
partnership with government. This principle goes to the core value of efficiency for
correctional services.
For illustrative purposes, several examples have been selected that define ways in
which demand for correctional services and facilities will initially be increased with
greater private sector involvement. Ultimately, recidivism should be reduced which
manages, if not reduces, demand.
n Pre-release services Reduce the remand incarceration through community-
based supervision (for example, electronic monitoring).
n Court data management Improves information flow, reduces time to trial,
reduces remand incarceration.
n Probation services Provides community-based supervision and reduces
prison population.
n Special offender operations Removes special needs inmate groups from
general incarceration and provides more intensive programming; probably
increases demand initially and "broadens the net" for incarceration. Examples
of special offender groups include:
• juveniles;
• mental health offenders;
• substance abusers;
• sex offenders;
• geriatric inmates;
• women;
• acute/chronic care inmates.
n Return-to-custody Provides an alternative to remand or prison facilities for
parole violators; reduces the population in remand centres, but "broadens the
net" of incarceration.
n Pre-release programs Prepares the inmate for successful reintegration into
the community; "broadens the net" of incarceration.
n Halfway houses Brings the inmate closer to work and community living
experiences; increases incarceration, but at a community-based level.
125The Issues Corrections
n Boot camps/shock incarceration Confronts the inmate with a choice-and-
change approach; increases incarceration.
Simply shifting the responsibility for these specialty facilities or services to the
private sector will not of itself increase demand. More efficiently operated special
facilities and a broader supply of this bedspace and programs may ultimately diminish
the need for general incarceration. With an unchecked proliferation of special bedspace
provided by an aggressive private sector, the supply may increase at a rate faster than
classification schemes can articulate. Again, government is as capable of providing
these specialty facilities as the private sector. However, there has been a tendency in
the United States for government to focus upon the provision of higher custody
bedspace and either delay or ignore the provision of specialty incarceration. A well
conceived intervention by the private sector in the provision of this bedspace would
provide a significant benefit to a balance in the correctional system, even though there
may be some "net-widening" as a result.
At this time, there is simply not enough experience with private corrections to
affirm the impact upon future forecasting. The United States is, by far, the most
prolific user of private operators of correctional institutions. Even as the world's
largest incarcerator, only 2 per cent of the persons incarcerated in America are
currently held in privately-operated facilities. Until this amount increases by at least
ten-fold, empirically-based impact models will be unfeasible. A more useful exercise
will be to carefully study the partnership opportunities between government and the
private sector, and to agree on an appropriate role for the private sector. If this
partnership is successful, reductions in remand and prison population due to expanded
pre- and post-incarceration programs offered by private suppliers could result.
Although this initially broadens the net of incarceration, over a decade, the benefits of
rehabilitation-based, rather than incarceration-based, services could ultimately reduce
the rate of recidivism and, therefore, the demand for traditional bedspace.
Defining a Privatisation Role for the 1990s
Rather than spend a great deal of effort attempting to define how a larger private
sector role will change forecasting equations, as a correctional community, we should
more clearly articulate our expectations for staff and inmates, along with a re-
evaluation of the core values impacting the care and custody of prisoners. The issue of
who provides the service should be addressed only after a clear definition of the
objectives for incarceration have been clearly defined in terms of a continuum of care.
After nearly a decade of debate in the United States, private operators of correctional
services are being recognised as having a definite role in assisting government in
meeting a demand that cannot be afforded otherwise. With less than ten years'
experience, it is difficult to say with certainty either that the value for money has
increased with privatisation, or that forecasting methods need to be altered.
126Will Privatisation Impact Forecasting for Correctional Services?
What can be said, in general terms, is that the private sector has shown itself to be
equally capable of providing quality services and that, with greater cooperation from
government correctional systems, the challenge of meeting the tremendous need for
corrective services in the 1990s can be better faced. The role for private corrections
can be as broadly, or as narrowly, defined as need dictates. However, if the private
sector is to be seen as a partner with government focused on the provision of a
continuum of care in corrective services, then all types of facilities and services must be
seen as opportunities for private involvement.
In the United States, the private sector has been criticised for assuming
responsibility only for low-risk prisoners. In large part, this is due to the government's
reluctance in awarding contracts to the private sector for management of difficult and
high-risk prisoners. Again, through a partnership approach, as government defines
need, so should the government also establish an objective method for determining
who can most cost-effectively and efficiently provide the service. As with the move
toward private health care facilities, a determination should be made regarding the
service provider, based upon criteria other than tradition and history.
During the decade of the 1990s, the need is unlikely to diminish for correctional
services of all forms. It is inconceivable that government can, during times of resource
scarcity, continue to shoulder the complete responsibility for incarceration and
rehabilitation. Private sector's partnership with government should more efficiently
improve the quality, as well as the quantity of corrective services. Only after a
significant portion of corrective services are provided by the private sector can a true
assessment be made of the impact of private corrections on demand forecasting.
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