2018 Fall (Winter) Outlook & Extreme Rainfall Events with Jerry Shields - September 19, 2018 - TRCA
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
2018 Fall (Winter) Outlook &
Extreme Rainfall Events
with Jerry Shields
September 19, 2018
ENSO conditions
3-Month Outlook
Fall 2018 / Hint of Winter
Extreme Rainfall Challenges
A New Era for Weather Services
2
3
2018 Temperatures Anomaly to Sept.18
Nino 4 Nino 3
Nino 1+2
4 ENSO Regions - Current Conditions
5 Current ENSO 3.4 Conditions
6 ENSO 3.4 Forecast (last month inset)
7 ENSO Ensemble Outlook
Matching Years for October
1969
2004
2002
Matching Years for Fall
1969
2004
Matching Years for Winter
2009/10
2007/08
8 Best Matching Analogs for the Coming Months
October 2018 Temperatures from Normal (inset
9
is previous month’s forecast)
October 2018 Precipitation from Normal (inset
10
is previous month’s forecast)November 2018 Temperatures from Normal
11
(inset is previous month’s forecast)November 2018 Precipitation from Normal
12
(inset is previous month’s forecast)13
Fall 2018 Temperatures from Normal(inset
is previous month’s forecast)14
Fall 2018 Precipitation from Normal
(inset is previous month’s forecast)December 2018 Temperatures from Normal
15
(inset is previous month’s forecast)December 2018 Precipitation from Normal
16
(inset is previous month’s forecast)January 2019Temperatures from Normal (inset
17
is previous month’s forecast)January Precipitation from Normal (inset is
18
previous month’s forecast)Winter 18/19 Temperatures from Normal (inset
19
is previous month’s forecast)Winter 18/19 Precipitation from Normal (inset
20
is previous month’s forecast)A sunny dry spell unmatched in more than 70 years arrived
in September. There wasn’t a trace of rain in Toronto from
August 31 to September 18. The dry spell was also sunny
and warm, with 50 per cent more sunshine and
temperatures about 3 degrees higher than normal.
An unusually mild and storm-free November in Toronto
featured not a single snowflake falling at a weather
observing site. It was the first snow-free November
recorded since 1937 at Pearson International Airport.
21 Fall Weather Events of 2009Nature Makes Up With Warm Fall
An incredibly long run of benign weather in October and
November - mild temperatures, clear skies, sunny and dry
weather. In central Canada, temperatures averaged two
degrees warmer than normal and in places precipitation
was about one third of normal.
Golf courses appeared busier than at any time during the
summer. September was especially mild, dry and sunny,
ideal weather for grapes to sweeten. Further, fall foliage
was finally spectacular after two or three disappointing
years.
22 Fall Weather Events of 2004Snowless in Toronto
An unusually mild and storm-free November in Toronto featured not a
single snowflake falling at a weather observing site. It was the first
snow-free November recorded since 1937 at Pearson International
Airport. Even more remarkable, downtown at Canada’s oldest weather
station – where snowfall observing first began in 1847 – not even a
trace of snow (less than 0.2 cm) fell, for the first time ever.
Ottawa’s Record January Rainfall
On January 25, a large juicy Colorado low tracked northeast across the
upper Great Lakes into northern Ontario drawing thawing and soaking
weather into most of southern portion of the province. Several hours of
freezing rain preceded the “spring” weather over the Ottawa Valley. A
new all-time January record for daily rainfall (43.6 mm) was set at
Ottawa
23 Winter Weather Events of 2009/2010High-Impact Extreme Rainfall Events of 2018
Forecasting Challenges of These Ever More
Frequent Events in Ontario
2450mm
DVP
50mm
2018
TorontoGOGAMA
ARBUTUS LAKE
FLAME LAKE
26
Widespread and Extreme the New Normal27
28 No meteorologist then no RED oval. Pure Automation
So you wan to to shop your own weather for situational
awareness? Where do you find the time? Dozens of options.
2930 Is the sky falling? Can you risk manage an entire occupation?
31
The RED oval is your meteorologist at work.#ParrySound33 32
When a Meteorologist Meets Mesoscale Forecasting 33
If automation of meteorology continues;
• expect a steady erosion of meteorological
skills
• self-fulfilling prophecy because forecasters
who lose those skills increasingly will be
incapable of adding any value to the
guidance.
• creates an argument for decreasing the
staffing further.
34
Charles Doswell III - 1986If automation of meteorology continues;
• this will lead to a decrease in the quality of
operational meteorological practice, even as
we develop new and exciting data sets by
implementing new technologies.
• net result for the public will be forecasts that
do not fulfill the potential inherent in what the
technology offers
35
Charles Doswell III - 198636 Real-time Mesoscale is an option
37 Refining forecasts and measuring events at the CA level.
38
3- Days Lead Time – Convection allowing guidance39
Guidance 3-days. Public Bulletin Several Hours. Success?Size
Ontario ~ 1 million sqkm
Texas ~ 0.7 million sqkm
Ontario Weather Offices = 2
OSPC – Downsview
AFFES – Sault Ste. Marie
NWS Offices in Texas = 12
Canada and USA both about 10 million sqkm
122 NWS Offices
40 5 MSC regional offices• Centralizing brick and mortar makes sense. • Bringing teams together makes sense. • Increased spending to deal with extreme wx makes sense 41 • Automating and reducing meteorologists – makes no sense.
What is possible in
YOUR operational
space if:
• Your Long Range Weather Forecast is More Accurate?
• Detailed weather forecasts evolve outside office hours?
• 4hr lead time exact location of 150mm in your watershed?
• Private Weather $ervices can do better than status quo?
• A meteorologist knocks on your door looking for a job?
422018 Fall (Winter) Outlook &
Extreme Rainfall Events
Jerry.Shields@Ontario.ca
Please Contact MeYou can also read
