2018 MARKET REPORT 3 - Lee & Associates

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2018 MARKET REPORT 3 - Lee & Associates
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    MARKET REPORT

3   2018
2018 MARKET REPORT 3 - Lee & Associates
ECONOMIC
                     OVERVIEW

                                           GDP GROWTH

                                           EMPLOYMENT

                                           MONETARY POLICY

                                           GLOBAL ECONOMY

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2018 MARKET REPORT 3 - Lee & Associates
Q3                                                                                                                                                                                  Q3
                                                                                                                         Economic Overview                                                                                                                                                 Economic Overview

    GDP GROWTH                                                                                                                                                    EMPLOYMENT
                                                                                                                                                                Trending in Q3
 Trending in Q3                                                                                                                                                 The nation’s jobless rate fell in September to its                             the least since October 2017.
 Strong consumer and government spending                                            investment grew at a 0.8% annual rate,                                      lowest level since 1969, and job openings hit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               The recovery is beginning to reach groups                                   GDP GROWTH
 lifted the third-quarter gross domestic                                            the weakest in nearly two years even as             GDP GROWTH              a record 7.1 million positions, exceeding the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               struggling to show improvement. Jobless
 product to 3.5%. Although it beat estimates,                                       unemployment is at its lowest in nearly                                     number of people classied as unemployed.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               rates for Latino and African-Americans are
 the GDP declined from 4.1% in Q2 as the                                            ve decades. The government’s report                                        The unemployment rate hit 3.7%. Non-farm                                       near record lows. Progress also is being
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           EMPLOYMENT
 new government data sent new signals that                                          reafrmed the expectations of many that             EMPLOYMENT              payrolls gained 134,000 lled positions.                                       made by teens, disabled and under-educated
 business expansion is slowing. Consumers                                           the long economic boom is winding down.                                     Average hourly wages were up 0.3% from                                         workers, all beginning to see benets in
 went shopping from July to September with                                          Investment spending and the scal stimulus                                                                                                                                                                                            MONETARY POLICY
                                                                                                                                                                August and up 2.8% year over year. The                                         recent months from the tight labor market.
 fatter wallets from the tax cut, more jobs                                         from last year’s cut in the corporate tax rate    MONETARY POLICY           economy is on track to create 2 million jobs
 and better paychecks. Representing about                                           from 35% to 21% are fading with diminished                                                                                                                 Median weekly earnings of the nation’s 117.2
                                                                                                                                                                for the eighth straight year.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               million ll-time wage and salary workers were                             GLOBAL ECONOMY
 70% of the economy, consumer spending                                              ability to help longer-term expansion. The
 jumped 4% in Q3 – the most since 2004.                                             Federal Reserve projects a growth rate of         GLOBAL ECONOMY            The number of people ling for unemployment                                    $887 in the third quarter of 2018, according
 Purchases were up for motor vehicles,                                              2.5% next year, slowing to 1.8% by 2021.                                                                                     UNEMPLOYMENT      UNEMPLOYMENT U6    LABO R FORCE PARTICIPATION

 food, clothing and recreational goods.                                             Another key feature of tax reform was
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       “The recovery is
                                                                                                                                                                                                    16%                                                                            63.6%

                                                                                                                                     “Purchases were up
 Government spending rose the most since                                            repatriation of assets held overseas by U.S.                                                                                                                                                   63.4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                    14%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       beginning to reach

                                                                                                                                                                   Unemployment & U6 Unemployment
                                                                                                                                     for motor vehicles,
                                                                    NaƟonal Real DomesƟc Product                                                                                                                                                                                   63.2%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Labor Force Participation
                    19500                                                                                                   8                                                                       12%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       groups struggling to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   63.0%

                                                                                                                                     food, clothing and
                                                                                                                            6
                    18500
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Quarter-to-Quarter Growth in Real GDP
                                                                                                                                                                                                    10%                                                                            62.8%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       show improvement.”
                                                                                                                            4

                                                                                                                                     recreational goods;
                    17500                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          62.6%
                                                                                                                            2                                                                       8%

                    16500                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          62.4%
     $ (Billions)

                                                                                                                            0

                                                                                                                                     business expansion
                                                                                                                                                                                                    6%

                                                       Quarter-to-Quarter Growth in Real GDP                                -2                                                                                                                                                     62.2%
                    15500

                                                                                                                                     is slowing.”
                                                                                                                                                                                                    4%
                                                                                                                            -4                                                                                                                                                     62.0%
                    14500
                                                                                                                            -6                                                                      2%                                                                             61.8%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          2013    2014          2015          2016        2017             2018
                    13500
                                                                                                                            -8

                    12500
                                     Great Recession
                                                                                                                            -10                                 benets has declined to the lowest level in                                    to the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of
                                                                                                                                                                more than four decades. The participation                                      Labor Statistics.
                            2018Q2
                            2018Q3
                            2017Q3
                            2017Q4
                            2018Q1
                            2016Q3
                            2016Q4
                            2017Q1
                            2017Q2
                            2015Q4
                            2016Q1
                            2016Q2
                            2014Q4
                            2015Q1
                            2015Q2
                            2015Q3
                            2014Q1
                            2014Q2
                            2014Q3
                            2013Q2
                            2013Q3
                            2013Q4
                            2012Q1
                            2012Q2
                            2012Q3
                            2012Q4
                            2013Q1
                            2011Q3
                            2011Q4
                            2010Q4
                            2011Q1
                            2011Q2
                            2009Q4
                            2010Q1
                            2010Q2
                            2010Q3
                            2008Q4
                            2009Q1
                            2009Q2
                            2009Q3

                                                                                                                                                                rate, the measure of those working or looking
     Chart by Henry Abramov, Director of Research, Lee &      GDP        % Change in GDP           Linear (GDP)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Women had median weekly earnings of $796,
                                                                                                                                                                for jobs, has been stable after falling to lows
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               or 81.8% of the $973 median for men. Full-
 2016. An added $300 billion authorized                                             rms. About $3 trillion held offshore to                                    not seen since the 1970s.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               time workers in management, business and
 for the Pentagon by congress in February                                           avoid high U.S. taxes would return quickly                                  Private employers have been adding jobs                                        nancial operations had the highest median
 funded the most defense spending over                                              with the one-time repatriation rate of 15.5%                                for nearly eight years, but with the pool of                                   weekly earnings, $1,530 for men and $1,146
 two quarters since major military hardware                                         on cash and 8% on non-cash and illiquid                                     workers shrinking fewer jobs are being lled.                                  for women. People in service jobs earned the
 purchases were curtailed after the 2008-                                           assets, tax reform proponents claimed. The                                  Smaller rms with less than 50 employees are                                   least, $642 for men and $514 for women. In
 09 nancial crisis, Responding to protect                                          Commerce Department estimated that $302                                     hit hardest. The latest monthly data shows                                     ofce and administrative support positions
 earnings from trade and tariff volatility and                                      billion came back in the rst quarter, falling                              that 163,000 positions were added in August,                                   women earned nearly 16% less than men.
 slowing growth, business executives have                                           to $170 billion in the second quarter.
 turned cautious.     Non-residential xed
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2018 MARKET REPORT 3 - Lee & Associates
Q3                                                                                                                            Q3
                                                                                                                                 Economic Overview                                                                                                     Economic Overview

         MONETARY POLICY                                                                                                                                       GLOBAL ECONOMY
       Trending in Q3                                                                                                                                       Trending in Q3
       An upbeat Federal Open Market Committee                                 Trade policy developments remained a                                         More caution ags are being raised about           was singled out as an exception.
       increased the federal funds rate 25 basis                               source of uncertainty for domestic growth and             GDP GROWTH         the health of the global economy with
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Additionally, the IMF said that nancial markets,       GDP GROWTH
       points to 2.25% at its September meeting and                            ination. Ofcials in the meeting reported                                   greater concerns that nationalist policies are
                                                                                                                                                                                                               so far, have been heedless of rising threats to
       afrmed that another rate hike was anticipated                          that businesses were attempting to diversify                                 undermining global cooperation and that
                                                                                                                                                                                                               the world economy.
       by the end of the year and at least two more                            the set of countries with which they trade due            EMPLOYMENT         scal policies are increasingly unsustainable.                                                             EMPLOYMENT
       increases in 2019 with the rate reaching 3.5%                           to “uncertainty over tariff policy.”                                                                                            In the IMF’s analysis, which comes after the
                                                                                                                                                            The world is in “an environment where nancial
       in 2020.                                                                                                                                                                                                synchronized global upswing peaked in
                                                                               Some Fed members said nancial stresses in a            MONETARY POLICY      conditions could tighten suddenly and
                                                                                                                                                            sharply,” the International Monetary Fund said
                                                                                                                                                                                                               2017, it was calculated that the populations          MONETARY POLICY
       It was the eighth time Federal Reserve ofcials                         few emerging market economies could pose                                                                                        of 45 poorer countries would see their living
       have raised borrowing costs since 2015, when                            risks by spreading more broadly through the                                  in its twice yearly World Economic Outlook.
                                                                                                                                                                                                               standards fall further behind those in rich
       rates were held at near zero, and the third                             global economy and nancial markets.                    GLOBAL ECONOMY       The report revised its economic forecasts                                                                GLOBAL ECONOMY
                                                                                                                                                                                                               nations over the next ve years.
       time this year.                                                                                                                                      downward modestly for this year and next.
                                                                               Participants noted that business xed                                                                                           “With geopolitical tensions also relevant in
       “Our economy is strong,” said Fed Chairman                              investment had grown strongly and a few                                      The fund’s report also leveled unusual criticism
                                                                                                                                                                                                               several regions, we judge that, even for the near
                                                                                                                                                            at the U.S.’s imposition of tariffs and tax cuts
                                                                                                                                                                                                               future, the possibility of unpleasant surprises
                                                                                                                                     “Upside risks
                                                 Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates Over a Ten Year Trend

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   “The IMF said that
                6

                                                                                                                                     cited by Fed                                                                                                                  nancial markets,
                5

                4

                                                                                                                                     ofcials included                                                                                                             so far, have been
            %   3

                                        Quarter-to-Quarter Growth in Real GDP                                                        high consumer                                      Quarter-to-Quarter
                                                                                                                                                                                        Quar
                                                                                                                                                                                           rter-to-Qua
                                                                                                                                                                                                    uart
                                                                                                                                                                                                    ua
                                                                                                                                                                                                    uart
                                                                                                                                                                                                      rter
                                                                                                                                                                                                       te GGrowth
                                                                                                                                                                                                            row
                                                                                                                                                                                                            rowth in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  in R
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Real
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      eal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ea
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       al GD
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          GDP
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           DP                                      heedless of rising
                2
                                                                                                                                     condence and                                                                                                                 threats to the world
                1
                                                                                                                                     accommodative                                                                                                                 economy.”
                0
                                                                                                                                     nancial
                            One- Year Treasury         Five-Year Treasury          Ten-Year Treasury      Thirty-Year Treasury
                                                                                                                                     conditions.”           near the top of the economic cycle. The IMF
       Jerome Powell. “Growth is running at a healthy                          commented that recent changes in federal                                                                                        outweighs the likelihood of unforeseen good
                                                                                                                                                            also said U.S. scal policy was unsustainable
       clip, unemployment is low, the number of                                tax policy had likely bolstered investment                                                                                      news,” said Maruice Obstfeld, IMF chief
                                                                                                                                                            and urged U.S. policymakers to concentrate
       people working is steadily rising and wages                             spending.                                                                                                                       economist.
                                                                                                                                                            on stabilizing and reducing the level of public
       are up.”                                                                                                                                                                                                The IMF’s outlook improved for some
                                                                               Ofcials        characterized    household                                   debt.
       “Accommodative,” a keyword in Fed policy                                consumption growth as strong and judged                                                                                         emerging market economies – especially oil-
                                                                                                                                                            The fund said nations must improve their
       announcements since the 2008, was missing                               that robust increases in disposable income,                                                                                     rich Russia and Saudi Arabia. But Argentina’s
                                                                                                                                                            public nances and consolidate their budgets
       in the latest announcement as ofcials                                  high levels of consumer condence and solid                                                                                     economy is expected to contract by 2.6% this
                                                                                                                                                            so they would have more ammunition to ght
       generally agreed that risks to the outlook                              household balance sheets had contributed to                                                                                     year and 1.6% in 2019. Turkey’s economy is
                                                                                                                                                            the next recession. Germany, because of its
       “appeared roughly balanced.”                                            the strength in spending.                                                                                                       expected to grow 3.5% this year and 0.4%
                                                                                                                                                            high trade surplus and low level of public debt,
                                                                                                                                                                                                               next year compared to 7.4% growth in 2017.

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Q3
                                                                                                                                                      OFFICE NATIONAL OVERVIEW

                                                       Q3 2018 Market Reports      Strong Downtown Ofce Demand Continues
                                                                                   Strong demand for premium ofce space in the nation’s central business districts
                                                                                   continued in the third quarter, driving down the vacancy rate 50 basis points year over              20.8
                                                                                                                                                                                                        NET
                                                                                                                                                                                                        ABSORPTION
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Million SF
                                                                                   year even as 58 million SF were added to downtown inventories.

                                            ECONOMIC OVERVIEW                      Net absorption in CBDs since Q3 last year has averaged 5.9 million SF per quarter, a
                                                                                   nearly four-fold increase in growth compared to the previous 12 months.
                                                                                                                                                                                                        VACANCY
                                                                                   Despite the healthy absorption of urban ofce space, rent growth was off 0.8% year over                              1.0 Billion SF
                                                                                   year. Competition for tenants is likely to intensify as 52.3 million SF are under construction,         9.1%
                                                                                   a 7% increase from a year ago.
                                                                                   Suburban ofce space makes up 78% of the total 11.4 billion SF inventory. Although the
                                                                                   vacancy rate was unchanged for the last 12 months, asking rents are up 2.5% over the
                                                                                   same period.                                                                                                         AVG. ASKING
                                                                                                                                                                                                        RATE
                                                                                   The latest sales data shows that total transactions and prices for ofce properties fell from
                                                                                   the rst quarter’s 749 trades, averaging $2.73 per SF, to 827 transactions, averaging $2.53          1.2%            $25.49 Avg Asking
                                                                                   per SF in the second quarter. Cap rates averaged 7.16% in Q2 compared to 7.4% a year
                                                                                   earlier.

                                                                                    SIGNIFICANT LEASE DEALS                                                                                             DELIVERIES
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Million SF
                                                                                    Lease Name                               SF                         Location                        16.3
                                                                                    Verizon Communications              438,821                        Boston, MA
                                                                                    Amazon.com                          413,100                        Seattle, WA                                      UNDER
                                                                                    Roku, Inc.                          357,477                       San Jose, CA                                      CONSTRUCTION
                                                                                                                                                                                        161             Million SF
                                                                                    LARGEST DELIVERIES
         INDUSTRIAL                                    OFFICE         RETAIL        Building Name                     City                    SF              Developed By           The New York City ofce market leads the
                                                                                                                                                                                     nation in net absorption with 5.4 million SF
                                                                                    Salesforce Tower          San Francisco, CA           1,400,000                  Hines           year to date. San Francisco posted 4.4 million
                                                                                                                                                                                     SF of tenant growth followed by Dallas/Fort
                                                                                    1800 Arch St               Philadelphia, PA           1,300,000          Liberty Property        Worth at 4.2 million SF and 3.3 million SF for
                                                                                                                                                                                     the Denver and San Jose markets.
                                                                                    Block B                    Washington, DC              975,000          Capital One Finc’l
                                                                                                                                                                                     Dallas/Fort Worth has delivered 6 million
                                                                                                                                                                                     SF of new space to the market this year.
     
                     REGIONAL OVERVIEWS                                             SIGNIFICANT PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION                                                          Washington, D.C., was next at 4.1 million SF
                                                                                                                                                                                     with San Francisco at 3.9 million SF and New

                                                                LOCAL EXPERTISE.
                                                                                    Market                                   SF                           Project                    York City at 3.3 million SF.
                                                                                                                                                                                     Overall new construction is up 4.5% year

                                                                 INTERNATIONAL
                                                                                    Chicago, IL                         2,700,000                   433 W. Van Buren St              over year. New York City leads in new space
                                                                                New York City, NY                   2,200,000                  One Manhattan West                underway 14.1 million SF followed by

                                                                     REACH.
                                                                                                                                                                          Washington, D.C.’s 8.8 million SF, 8.78 million
                                                                                    New York City, NY                   2,000,000                  Two Manhattan West                SF in Dallas/Fort Worth, 7.5 million SF in San

                                                                  WORLD CLASS.
                                                                                                                                                                                     Francisco and 7.3 million SF on Long Island,
                                                                                    New York City, NY                   1,700,000                    One Vanderbuilt                 NY.

                                                                               SIGNIFICANT BUILDING SALES
                                                                                    Address                            Market                  SF             Price/SF          Cap Rate          Buyer                  Seller
                          
                                                                                    666 Fifth Ave                  New York City           1,500,000          $886.95            4.9%       Brookeld            Kushner Co’s
                                                                                    200 Pier Four Blvd.                Boston               372,372          $1,208.47           4.2%       CommonWealth         Tishman Speyer
                                                                                    Metropolitan Park E&W        Seattle/Puget Snd          709,108           $613.45            4.4%       Beacon Cap           CBRE Global Inv

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2018 MARKET REPORT 3 - Lee & Associates
Q3                                                                                                                                                 Q3
                                                    INDUSTRIAL NATIONAL OVERVIEW                                                                                                                                RETAIL NATIONAL OVERVIEW
Construction Soars on Strong Demand                                                                                                            Mall Tenants Shed Space; Sale Prices Gain
Construction starts hit a post-recession record high of 73.6 million SF in the third                              NET                          Healthy demand for shopping centers, strip centers and single-tenant buildings                                        NET
                                                                                                                  ABSORPTION                                                                                                                                         ABSORPTION
                                                                                                70.3
quarter as strong demand slightly outpaced deliveries, holding the nationwide                                                                  continued in the third quarter along with the retreat by tenants from the nation’s malls.
average vacancy rate at a record low 4.6%.                                                                        Million SF                   Additionally, overall property values ended their nearly 18-month skid, during which
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  14.8               Million SF
Asking rents averaged $6.79 per SF, a robust 7.6% year-over-year increase. But the                                                             the average price per square foot fell 27%. Prices are up an average 2.3% year over
third quarter’s 72,270,117 SF of net absorption was the weakest three-month period                                                             year after a 13% mid-year rebound.
this year and off 18% from a year ago.                                                                            VACANCY                      Absorption for the rst three quarters totaled 45.9 million SF, a 3.6% gain over the                                  VACANCY
                                                                                                                  1.1 Billion SF               same period last year.                                                                                                623 Million SF
                                                                                                 4.6%
Growth in the nation’s inventory of warehouse and distribution buildings – which now
stands at 23.7 billion SF – continues to be driven chiey by the e-commerce sector.                                                            Through the rst three quarters, tenants shed 2.3 million SF of space in malls, which                4.4%
Warehouse and distribution space accounts for about 90% of total inventory. About                                                              account for 8% of the total 14.1-billion-SF retail inventory. Malls posted 5 million SF of
19% of industrial space is owner occupied and nearly two-thirds of all new space                                                               absorption over the rst three quarters last year.
completed this year is leased.                                                                                    AVG. ASKING                  There was 25.6 million SF of net absorption year to date in the general retail category.                              AVG. ASKING
Southern California’s Inland Empire region leads all markets in year-to-date absorption,                          RATE                         General retail, which is dominated by stand-alone buildings largely with a single                                     RATE
21.8 million SF, followed by Northern New Jersey and Atlanta, each with 14.8 million
SF, and Philadelphia with 13.6 million SF.
                                                                                                 1.8%             $6.79 Avg Asking             tenant, represents 53% of total inventory. Asking rents gained an average 5.2% since
                                                                                                                                               Q3 last year.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1.0%             $16.89 Avg Asking

 SIGNIFICANT LEASE DEALS                                                                                                                        SIGNIFICANT LEASE DEALS
                                                                                                                  DELIVERIES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     DELIVERIES
 Lease Name                                   SF                    Location                                      Million SF
                                                                                                 70.4                                           Lease Name                             SF                           Location                                         Million SF
 Amazon.com                                  1.1M           Huntington/Ashland, WV                                                                                                                                                                13.2
                                                                                                                                                Florida Dept of Health            136,000                      Tallahassee, FL
 Medical Depot                               1.0M                  Atlanta, GA
                                                                                                                                                Lowe’s                            132,825                      Baltimore, MD
 UPS                                         1.0M                Philadelphia, PA
                                                                                                                  UNDER                                                                                                                                              UNDER
                                                                                                                  CONSTRUCTION                  At Home                            97,840                        Denver, CO
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     CONSTRUCTION
 LARGEST DELIVERIES                                                                              370.2            Million SF
                                                                                                                                               LARGEST DELIVERIES                                                                                   87.8             Million SF
 Building Name                   City                 SF             Developed By
                                                                                               The Inland Empire also is tops in deliveries    Building Name                    City                  SF                % Occupied
                                                                                               this year with 19.1 million SF. Dallas                                                                                                            Demand for shopping centers, which
 Majestic Chino Gtwy       Inland Empire, CA         1.4M          Majestic Realty Co
                                                                                               checked in with 16.4 million SF followed by     Northwestern Drive           El Paso, TX            450,000                     97%               account for 32% of all retail space, was
 730-798 Gateway Bl         Cincinnati, OH           1.3M             IDI Logistics            Atlanta’s 13.8 million SF.                                                                                                                        up 20.5 million SF through the rst nine
                                                                                                                                               125 Graham Road            Cleveland, OH            249,721                     100%              months of 2018 compared to 13.9 million
                                                                    Core5 Industrial           Philadelphia’s 28.6 million SF of space
 590 Coweta Ind Pk            Atlanta, GA            1.2M                                                                                                                                                                                        SF for the same period in 2017. Year-over-
                                                                        Ptnrs                  under construction through the third            1550 Deereld Pkwy           Chicago, IL            236,000                     100%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 year rent growth averaged 7%.
                                                                                               quarter is followed by 25.8 million SF in the
 SIGNIFICANT PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION                                                       Dallas/Fort Worth market and Atlanta’s 22.3
                                                                                               million SF.
                                                                                                                                               LARGEST UNDER CONSTRUCTION                                                                        Deliveries in all categories through the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 third quarter totaled 49.4 million SF, off
                                                                                                                                               Address                           Submarket/City                SF         Delivery Date          19.5% from the rst nine months last year.
 Market                                        SF                   Project Name               First-half sales totals show that average
                                                                                               price per square foot increased 9.3%            American Dream                                                                                    There were 87.8 million SF under
 Reno, NV                                    3.8M                       Tesla                  to $84.86 per SF year over year and                                                Northern NJ               2,000,000          Q1 2019           construction at the end of Q3, a 2.2% gain
                                                                                                                                               Meadowlands Mall
                                                                                               transactions are off 11.5%.                                                                                                                       from the same period a year ago.
 Washington, DC                              3.5M               Proctor & Gamble Plant                                                         Veterans Parkway & Town
                                                                                               Cap rates have been lower in 2018,                                                 Louisville, KY            1,000,000          Q3 2019           Mid-year sales transaction totals show that
                                                                                                                                               Center Blvd.
 Albuquerque, NM                             2.8M               Facebook Data Center           averaging 7.06% through the rst half,                                                                                                            prices averaged $159.42 per SF, recovering
                                                                                               compared to the same period last year.          00-01 SW Zierdt Road               Huntsville, AL            1,000,000          Q1 2020           from $139.92 SF in Q1. Prices in this cycle
 Denver, CO                                  2.4M                      Amazon
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 peaked at $191.44 per SF in Q3 2016. Cap
 SIGNIFICANT BUILDING SALES                                                                                                                     SIGNIFICANT BUILDING SALES                                                                       rates are up averaging 7.24%,

 Address                           Market                  SF       Price/SF        Cap Rate           Buyer                   Seller           Address                         Market                 SF               Price/SF         Cap Rate           Buyer                 Seller

                                                                                                                          Embarcadero           Ellsworth Place             Washington DC          347,172              $265.00           7.4%        GBT Realty Corp       Rockwood Cap.
 Gold St Tech Center        So. Bay/San Jose, CA     302,212        $302.77           6.8%      PSAI Rlty Ptnrs
                                                                                                                         Capital Partners       The Center of Winter Pk       Orlando, FL          243,163              $299.18           6.1%         AEW Cap Mgmt           Sterling Org.
 Charlotte Ind Portfolio        Charlotte, NC        764,400         $92.23          5.48%      GLP US Mgmt, LLC         The Keith Corp.                                     N. Bay/Santa                                                                                    Regency Ctrs
                                                                                                                                                E. Washington Place                                203,087              $270.82           8.0%              Vestar
 100 Meadow Rd                   Boston, MA          433,127        $147.76           5.5%      AEW Cap Mgmt              National Dev.                                       Rosa, CA                                                                                          Corp

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2018 MARKET REPORT 3 - Lee & Associates
Q3
                                                                      SANTA BARBARA Q3

           SANTA BARBARA

           SAN LUIS OBISPO                 SIGNIFICANT LEASE DEALS
                                                                      Property
                                           Address                                         SF                          Tenant
                                                                        Type
                                           12 E. Carrillo St.          Office            5,708                    Well Health, Inc

           SANTA MARIA
                                           801 Chapla St.              Office            4,975                 Compass California, Inc
                                           414 E. Cota St.             Office            4,523                 City of Santa Barbara

                                           SIGNIFICANT BUILDING SALES
                              OFFICE                                  Property

           LOMPOC
                                           Address                                     Price      Price/SF               SF                   Buyer
                                                                        Type
                                           819 Reddick St.             Office        $3,500,000   $361.83              9,673          West Bluff Capital

                                           536 E. Arrellaga St.        Office        $2,750,000   $687.50              4,000             Take Luck, LLC
                                                                                                                                     Hughes Land Holding
                                           116 N. Nopal St.           Industrial     $2,150,000   $354.60              6,063
                                                                                                                                            Trust

           PASO ROBLES       INDUSTRIAL   TOTAL MARKET STATISTICS
                                                          Q3                Office                Industrial                         Retail
                                          Vacancy Rate                     7.27% ↑                1.03% ↑                        5.81% ↑
                                          Average Sale Price/SF            $636.43                $354.61                        $537.05
                                          Average Asking Lease Rate          $3.21                 $2.26                             $4.13
                                                          Q2
                                          Vacancy Rate                      7.12%                  0.88%                             5.72%
                                          Average Sale Price/SF            $656.97                $480.28                        $482.28

                               RETAIL     Average Asking Lease Rate          $3.17                 $2.27                             $4.15

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2018 MARKET REPORT 3 - Lee & Associates
SAN LUIS OBISPO Q3                                                                                                                   SANTA MARIA Q3

SIGNIFICANT LEASE DEALS
                                                                                                                                     SIGNIFICANT LEASE DEALS
                                        Property
Address                                                           SF                                    Tenant                                                     Property
                                          Type                                                                                       Address                                                 SF                     Tenant
                                                                                                                                                                    Type
1075 Farmhouse Ln.                      Industrial               11,586                Consolidated Electrical Distibutors, LLC

892 Aerovista Dr., Suite 210 & 240        Office                 11,555                       Wacker Wealth Partners                 2120 S. Bradley Rd.            Retail                 9,180                  Five Below

3566 Higuera St., Suite 300-2           Industrial               8,937                           Landis Automotive                   1414 E. Main St., Suite 201    Office                 8,488                 Dignity Health

SIGNIFICANT BUILDING SALES
                                                                                                                                     SIGNIFICANT BUILDING SALES
                                     Property
Address                                                  Price            Price/SF                 SF                   Buyer                                         Property
                                       Type                                                                                          Address                                             Price      Price/SF        SF                  Buyer
                                                                                                                                                                        Type
620-628 California Blvd.              Office           $5,684,000         $185.72                30,606          Nicholas Tompkins
                                                                                                                                     2811 Airpark Dr.                  Office          $7,600,000    $87.16       87,200            Jon Alberon
1115 Santa Rosa St.                   Retail           $2,400,000         $112.46                21,340               Ben Kulick
                                                                                                                                     300 Town Center East              Retail          $3,450,000   $168.25       20,505          Rao Yalamanchili
4120 Horizon Ln.                     Industrial        $1,650,000         $191.86                8,600                Eric Sevim
                                                                                                                                     1790 N. Broadway St.              Retail          $2,388,000   $344.59       6,930                 3H, LLC

TOTAL MARKET STATISTICS                                                                                                              TOTAL MARKET STATISTICS
               Q3                             Office                      Industrial                         Retail
                                                                                                                                                    Q3                        Office                Industrial                 Retail
Vacancy Rate                               6.01% ↑                        1.13% ↓                           3.55% ↑
                                                                                                                                     Vacancy Rate                            8.73% ↑                3.53% ↑                  2.63% ↑
Average Sale Price/SF                      $372.14                        $203.96                           $383.67
                                                                                                                                     Average Sale Price/SF                   $165.67                $200.48                  $198.16
Average Asking Lease Rate                      $1.94                       $1.44                             $2.77
                                                                                                                                     Average Asking Lease Rate                $1.42                  $0.72                     $1.93
               Q2
                                                                                                                                                    Q2
Vacancy Rate                                5.85%                          1.25%                             3.40%
                                                                                                                                     Vacancy Rate                             8.45%                  2.66%                     2.51%
Average Sale Price/SF                      $390.57                        $185.79                           $564.26                  Average Sale Price/SF                   $186.71                $152.39                  $214.93
Average Asking Lease Rate                      $1.93                       $1.45                             $2.87                   Average Asking Lease Rate                $1.44                  $0.71                     $2.01

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2018 MARKET REPORT 3 - Lee & Associates
LOMPOC Q3                                                                    PASO ROBLES Q3

SIGNIFICANT LEASE DEALS                                                                   SIGNIFICANT LEASE DEALS
                            Property                                                                                       Property
Address                                                SF                                 Address                                             SF                                  Tenant
                             Type                                                                                            Type

3769 Constellation Road                                                                   2320 Ramada Dr., Suite E         Industrial        3,360                             Port-A-Port, Inc
                             Office                   1,500
Suite E & F                                                                               1111 Riverside Ave., Suite 101    Office           2,550                        Sweet Zulu Bakeshop

3769 Constellation Road                                                                   1240 Park St., Suite 101          Retail           1,640                    American Commercial Equities
                             Office                    750
Suite B-2

SIGNIFICANT BUILDING SALES                                                                SIGNIFICANT BUILDING SALES
                             Property                                                                                      Property
Address                                              Price         Price/SF         SF    Address                                            Price                 Price/SF                       SF
                               Type                                                                                          Type

300 N G St.                  Industrial            $1,450,000       $89.32       16,232   1610 Commerce Way                Industrial      $2,750,000                 $36.86                  74,608

911 E. Chestnut Ave.         Industrial            $1,300,000      $288.89        4,500   1905 Spring St.                    Office        $810,000                $379.04                    2,137

921 W. Laurel Ave.           Industrial            $1,125,000      $224.91        5,002   2640 Spring St.                    Office        $280,000                   $80.00                  3,500

                                                                                          TOTAL MARKET STATISTICS
                                                                                                         Q3                       Office                 Industrial                         Retail
TOTAL MARKET STATISTICS
                                                                                          Vacancy Rate                          3.36% ↑                  5.62% ↑                           3.54% ↑
               Q3                         Office                Industrial     Retail
                                                                                          Average Sale Price/SF                  $229.52                  $42.61                      No Sales Reported
Vacancy Rate                           1.36% ↓                  2.29% =       8.79% ↓
                                                                                          Average Asking Lease Rate               $1.26                   $0.89                             $1.56
Average Sale Price/SF             No Sales Reported             $170.62       $232.02
                                                                                                         Q2
Average Asking Lease Rate                 $1.00                  $2.00         $1.41
                                                                                          Vacancy Rate                            3.15%                   5.28%                            3.37%
               Q2
                                                                                          Average Sale Price/SF                  $280.43             No Sales Reported                No Sales Reported
Vacancy Rate                              1.86%                  2.90%        9.20%
                                                                                          Average Asking Lease Rate               $1.15                   $0.87                             $1.30
Average Sale Price/SF                     $80.50                 $81.25       $900.34
Average Asking Lease Rate                 $0.91                  $2.00         $1.38

    leeentralcoast.com                                                                    leecentralcoast.com
2018 MARKET REPORT 3 - Lee & Associates
NOTABLE SALES Q3 2018                                              NOTABLE LEASES Q3 2018

  1111 E. CABRILLO BLVD., SANTA BARBARA   839-879 WARD DR., GOLETA       70 CASTILIAN DR., GOLETA             6750 NAVIGATOR WAY, GOLETA
  Hyatt Centric Santa Barbara
                                          Property: Industrial
                                                                         Property: Office                     Property: Office
  Property: Hospitality                   Sale Price: $16,500,000
                                                                         Size: 86,246 SF                      Size: 12,976 SF
  Sale Price: $87,500,000                 Sale Per/SF: $132.26
                                                                         Lease Date: 07/2018                  Lease Date: 08/2018
  Number of Rooms: 200                    Size: 124,754 SF
  Sale Date: 07/2018                      Sale Date: 08/2018

                     1                                   2                                   1                               2

  2811 AIRPARK DR., SANTA MARIA           10 S. KELLOGG AVE., GOLETA    1075 FARMHOUSE LN., SAN LUIS OBISPO   892 AEROVISTA PL., SAN LUIS OBISPO
  Property: Office                        Property: Industrial                                                Property: Office
  Size: 87,200 SF                                                       Property: Industrial
                                          Size: 3,366 SF                Size: 11,586 SF                       Size: 11,555 SF
  Sale Price: $7,600,000                  Sale Price: $6,775,000                                              Lease Date: 07/2018
  Sale Per/SF: $87.16                                                   Lease Date: 08/2018
                                          Sale Per/SF: $2,012.77
  Sale Date: 09/2018                      Sale Date: 09/2018

        3                                      4                                3                                  4
  1340 TAFT ST., SAN LUIS OBISPO
                                          620-628 CALIFORNIA BLVD.,     111 CASTILIAN DR., GOLETA             3566 HIGUERA ST., SAN LUIS OBISPO
  Property: Multi-Family                  SAN LUIS OBISPO
  Sale Price: $6,400,000                  Property: Office              Property: Office                      Property: Office
  Units: 7                                Size: 30,606 SF               Size: 10,200 SF                       Size: 8,937 SF
  Sale Date: 07/2018                      Sale Price: $5,684,000        Lease Date: 08/2018                   Lease Date: 07/2018
                                          Sale Per/SF: $185.72
                                          Sale Date: 08/2018

         5                                     6                               5                                    6
leeentralcoast.com                                                     leecentralcoast.com
WINE NEWS

Capturing Carbon in Vineyard Soils                              The Miller Family Announces Release
                                                                                                                          FEATURING
Capturing Carbon in Vineyard Soils Fetzer marks 50th            of The Pillars Wines: Three Historically                  ​Rebel Coast ​​Sauvignon Blanc has every character of a
anniversary and reaffirms commitment to organic,                Inspired Wines Representing the                           California Sauvignon Blanc. It has high acid, with bright
biodynamic growing by Laurie Daniel                             Foundation of the Bien Nacido Estate                      citrus, and a crisp clean finish. The blend does not taste
                                                                Santa Maria, CA – The Miller family, owners and           strongly of marijuana; instead, the Sauvignon Blanc powers
                                                                                                                          the mouthfeel. It’s crisp, refreshing and best served naked.
Hopland, Calif.—It’s been 50 years since Barney Fetzer          stewards of the Bien Nacido and Solomon Hills
and his family founded Fetzer Vineyards in Mendocino            Estates, are pleased to announce the release of
                                                                                                                          Rebel Coast starts with a traditional Sauvignon Blanc from
County in California’s North Coast region. The Fetzers          The Pillars, a selection of three historically inspired   Sonoma Valley, then the alcohol is removed (Federal law
started farming organically in the 1980s, and even after        wines from the most exceptional parcels within            prohibits combining alcohol with THC) and the wine infused
the company was sold in 1992, the Fetzer name has               Bien Nacido Vineyard. Since Bien Nacido Vineyard’s        with fast-acting THC. After drinking a glass, one can expect
remained closely associated with organic and, later,            inception in 1973, the most impressive parcels of         to feel the effects between 15-40 minutes depending on body
                                                                                                                          type, gender, how often they use cannabis and what they
sustainable practices. But by the time Chilean wine             the vineyard have commanded the highest demand
                                                                                                                          have eaten that day. Currently Rebel Coast Wine is available
giant Viña Concha y Toro bought Fetzer Vineyards in             and demonstrated the greatest quality. It’s with
                                                                                                                          in 7+ dispensaries in Southern California and are currently
2011, the brand had lost momentum. Current company              this understanding that, after 45 years, the Miller       working on additional dispensaries in Central California,
officials like to say that sustainability is in Fetzer’s        Family has decided to craft these three special           Sacramento, San Francisco, and the surrounding areas.
DNA and that the winery’s efforts on that front had             wines, anchored in the rich history of Bien Nacido
                                                                                                                                                R E B E L C O A S T. C O M
never waned — in fact, the company now talks about              and appropriately called the Pillars to represent
                                                                                                                          Please check Rebel Coast’s website for new dispensary
“regeneration,” or actually making the planet better —          the foundation of the winemaking program.
                                                                                                                          locations. To be added to the waiting list for the next bottling
but it was time to get the word out again. © Wines & Vines      READ MORE ...
                                                                © winebusiness.com                                        run just in time for the holidays please email derek@

READ MORE ...                                                                                                             rebelcoast.com. A Rosé will be available in 2019.

                                                                                                                                                                   R E C K L E S S LOV E W I N E S.C O M
                                                                                                                                       RECKLESS LOVE RED BLEND                               SUNDAY FUNDAY WHITE BLEND
                                                                                                                                       Made from legit California grapes that                     Get in for the real thing and
                                                                                                                                       will totally score with your taste buds.                   stick your nose right in that
                                                                                                                                       Remember that moment when you kissed                   glass to smell the combination
                         JUSTIN Vineyards & Winery Expands Brand Footprint With New                                                    your high school crush? Opening a bottle                     of tropical fruit and citrus.
                             Tasting Room In The Heart Of Downtown Paso Robles                                                         of this Red Blend is like going back to that                  A pleasant, fruit-forward
                                                                                                                                       moment in time. Just kidding, it’s way                mouthfeel leads to a refreshing,
                        10.02.18 Paso Robles, Calif.— Justin Vineyards opened its second tasting room located in
                                                                                                                                       better…and less awkward.                                medium body and a finish that
                        downtown Paso Robles at 811 12th St. The new venue includes a tasting bar, lounge and                                                                                     lingers with hints of citrusy
                        full dining room, offering guests wine flights, wines by the glass and multiple food pairing                                                                               goodness and green apple.
                                                                                                                                                                                               This wine is like going back to
                        or dining options. “This is a special day for Justin as we expand the footprint of our brand
                                                                                                                                                                                             that all-inclusive resort with the
                        and our commitment to the Paso Robles community,” said Clarence Chia, vice president of                                                                                       swim up bar, but without
                        marketing and direct-to-consumer for the winery. © Wines & Vines               justinwine.com                                                                                              the sunburn.

                                                                                                                          leecentralcoast.com
COMPANY INFORMATION
Lee & Associates - Central Coast                                                                                                               THE LEE & ASSOCIATES CENTRAL COAST TEAM

                   #1                             LEE & ASSOCIATES                                                                                                      PRINCIPAL TEAM

    CRE BROKERAGE                                 TRI-COUNTIES
                                                  Why Companies Prefer To Partner With Us...
   2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 & 2107
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                                                  LOCAL EXPERTISE.                                                                                                       BROKER TEAM
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         26
      BROKERS
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                                                                                                        OFFICES
      AND GROWING                                          2017                                 WITHIN THE TRI-COUNTIES
                                                                                                                                        SHARIF ELSEIFY           PAUL DAVIES        EVAN LASH          DAVID BARTOLOMUCCI

                                                                                                                                                                   OFFICE SUPPORT TEAM
 Pulse on the Market »                                            SPECIALITES
                                                                          &

                                                                                                                                                            JONATHAN ALEJANDRE      ANA STORK
 INDUSTRIAL                 OFFICE                RETAIL              WINE & LAND             MULTI-FAMILY          INVESTMENTS                                Research Analyst   Marketing Director
                                                                       DEVELOPMENT

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CENTRAL COAST

              MARKET REPORT
               The information and details contained herein have been obtained from third-party
               sources believed to be reliable, however, Lee & Associates has not independently verified
                                                                                                                   3
               its accuracy.
               Lee & Associates makes no representations, guarantees, or express or implied warranties
               of any kind regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information and details provided
               herein, including but not limited to, the implied warranty of suitability and fitness for a
               particular purpose. Interested parties should perform their own due diligence regarding
               the accuracy of the information.
               The information provided herein, including any sale or lease terms, is being provided
               subject to errors, omissions, changes of price or conditions, prior sale or lease, and
               withdrawal without notice. Third-party data sources: CoStar Group, Inc., The Economist,
               U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Congressional Budget
               Office, European Central Bank, GlobeSt.com, CoStar Property and Lee Proprietary Data.,
               Nielsen. SVB, State of the Wine Report. Wine news © Wines & Vines. Information in
               this report was provided by Rob McMillan, EVP and Founder Silicon Valley Bank Wine
               Division. © Copyright 2016 Lee & Associates all rights reserved. Third-party Image
               sources: sorbis/shutterstock.com, shutterstock.com.

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