2018 mid-winter ag weather update - E-book Bryce Anderson's - DTN.com
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E-book Bryce Anderson’s 2018 mid-winter ag weather update
Table of contents
About the author
Contributing weather patterns.................................. 3
An updated mid-winter forecast............................... 4
Early expectations for the growing season.............. 5
A look around the globe............................................ 7
DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson
delivers must-have daily weather commentary
and in-depth seasonal weather forecasts for
the company’s subscribers. His insights and
commentary are frequently featured on regional
ag radio programs and in newspapers across
the United States.
Prior to DTN, Anderson was an award-winning
farm broadcaster and ag meteorologist at radio
and television stations in Iowa, Missouri, and
Nebraska. He has degrees from the University
of Nebraska and Mississippi State University.
Contributing weather patterns
A moderate to weak La Niña pattern and periodic
cold air due to a wavy polar vortex will make the
second half of this winter feel similar to that of the
2013-2014 season.
Four years ago, winter brought several
rounds of very cold air into the central and
Variable polar
eastern United States. We have already had jet stream
evidence of this type of pattern during the first
few weeks of 2018. It appears that winter will be Colder
slow to come to an end. Such a trend hints that Wetter
soils may be slow to warm for planting, delaying Warmer
the start of spring field work. Drier
Currently, the La Niña is at or near its peak, with
North American La Niña pattern;
most forecast models indicating that it will end the storm track usually stays north
during the spring.
3 • 2018 mid-winter ag weather update
An updated mid-winter forecast
Given the current influence of La Niña and the polar
vortex, here is what you can expect for the remainder
of this winter in the continental United States.
What to expect
• Frequent cold
• Enhanced snowfall
• Protracted winter
• More seasonable
• Variable temperatures
• Augmented rain/snow
• Trending warmer
• Ample precipitation
• Primarily warmer
• Drier tendency
• Mounting dryness/drought
4 • 2018 mid-winter ag weather update
Early expectations for the growing season
As mentioned, it is expected that this winter will be
slow to end. This will likely mean a delayed start to
the growing season as soil temperatures take more
time to warm before field work and planting can
begin. It is possible for patterns to become “neutral”
by late spring/early summer, which may limit the
possibility of drought in the corn belt.
The 2018 crop season is shaping up to be one
where — at this time — trendline yields are
achievable. However, whether or not yields can
maintain the robust production of the past four
years is questionable.
A slower start to the growing
season appears likely
5 • 2018 mid-winter ag weather update
Early expectations for the growing season
Drought in the northern and southern plains
is likely to continue at some level through the
Bryce’s preliminary
entire season. Recent dry conditions in the Delta
2018 row crop prospects
and southern Midwest put a premium on timely,
Residual dryness in certain sectors could make it
sufficient precipitation to help re-charge soil
challenging to achieve above-trendline yields,
profiles ahead of extensive plant moisture needs unlike the last four years.
in spring and summer. The southeastern United
States has the potential for dryness to impact
• Variable conditions
production as well.
• Trendline yields possible;
above trendlines uncertain
• Variable conditions
• Trendline yields possible;
above trendlines uncertain
6 • 2018 mid-winter ag weather update
A look around the world
In the international arena, South American weather
conditions are not perfect, but do not indicate
major issues in total production potential.
Brazil’s largest-producing crop regions have had
very favorable conditions. In early in 2018, the only
area of Brazil with crop issues has been the
northeast, but this is a minor producer overall.
In Argentina, dry conditions have brought on a
slight decrease in production estimates, but nothing
on the order of a significant drop in production.
Brazilian soybean production is
at 110+ million metric tons
7 • 2018 mid-winter ag weather updateA look around the world
The Black Sea region — specifically Ukraine and
Russia — have favorable soil moisture and winter
grain crops that are in good condition.
This part of the world is a robust export
competitor, and weather prospects for 2018
crops show no big threat to production. In addition,
export terminals are being expanded in places
like Novorossiysk due to warming climates and
larger crop production.
Ukraine & Russia are poised for
a potentially good growing year
8 • 2018 mid-winter ag weather updatewww.dtn.com | 1.800.511.0095 | Copyright © 2018 DTN
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