2019 BETTING GUIDE - Watchandwager
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2019 BETTING GUIDE
“I AM REALLY EXCITED FOR ROYAL ASCOT.
IT’S SUCH A BEAUTIFUL RACECOURSE
AND WORLD-CLASS EVENT”
“I AM REALLY LOOKING FORWARD
TO BOUND FOR NOWHERE. HE’S BEEN
WORKING GREAT HERE.”
Tyler Gaffalione, Jockey
2
CONTENTS
AN AMERICAN Royal Ascot is here, but how do I
approach betting on it?
AT ASCOT Peter Fornatale shows you the way.
Page 04
THREE TWO-YEAR- The juvenile races are some of the most
complex betting races of the week. Jamie Lynch
OLDS TO WATCH has picked out three of the more interesting
contenders taking their chance at Ascot.
Page 06
GROUP 1 The eight Group 1 races are the pinnacle
events of the week. Paul Jones uses statistical
STATS GUIDES analysis to inform your betting.
Page 07
INTERNATIONAL Royal Ascot is as international a meeting as
any, and Nicholas Godfrey has profiled some
RUNNERS PROFILES of the big-name raiders taking their chance
this week on the Ascot turf.
Page 9
ORDER OF Get all the necessary details for each of
the 30 races of the meeting.
RUNNING 2019
Page 11
JIM CROWLEY Stable jockey to Hamdan Al Maktoum
Jim Crowley is set for a big week in the
FEATURE saddle. He speaks to Tony Elves to
preview four of his rides.
Page 13
3
An American
at Ascot
Peter Fornatale
Host of the In The Money Players’ podcast and attheraces.com
contributor Peter Fornatale sets the scene for the US bettor
at Royal Ascot 2019
The Royal Ascot parade ring in all its splendour
4
Expert Eye storms to Jersey Stakes victory at Royal Ascot 2018
For an American horseplayer, betting the Royal Ascot races like the Belmont Oaks and Derby, the Grade 1s
meeting might seem like a daunting challenge. But like on Arlington Million Day, and of course the Breeders’
many challenges we as horseplayers face, whether it’s Cup. I’d heard about Expert Eye (above) before Ascot
finding the winner of the Kentucky Derby, trying to hit last year but that was the day he really stamped
the Pick Six on Belmont Stakes Day, or parsing through himself for me as a leading player for the Breeders’
a field of two-year-olds going two turns on turf for Cup Mile, a race he would of course go on to win.
the first time, there are also many terrific rewards.
The inclusion of so many USA horses at Ascot over the
past decade has provided a nice way in for American Another good way to accrue information for
bettors. And we’ve definitely seen some overlaid exotics your tote betting is to have a look at what the
pays in the tote pool betting over the last few years. international markets are doing – they might point
Tepin (bottom, right) keying a $1 tri that paid $752.70 to potential overlays and underlays on the tote.
with logical closers underneath springs to mind. The race cards on attheraces.com are a great way
to get an up-to-the-minute look at current prices.
Royal Ascot is undeniably one of the great race Attheraces.com’s race replays are also a useful tool
meetings in the world, with competitive fields, quality to get up-to-speed with the Royal Ascot form.
racing and an Olympics-feel in the races where we’ll
see shippers from the USA, Japan, France, Australia, I heartily encourage my fellow US players to follow
and Hong Kong. To win at Ascot – even to run at along with Royal Ascot in 2019. You’re certain at the
Ascot -- means something more than money to many very least to enjoy the experience of checking out an
horsemen. A chance to showcase your horses in front unparalleled racing spectacle. And I imagine some
of literal royalty and have the experience of a lifetime. of you reading this will enjoy it so much that you’ll
start making plans to attend the Royal meeting next
year. Because while it’s great to bet Royal Ascot via
simulcast, it’s a life experience to get there in person.
As horse bettors, we get to be a part of the action,
competing ourselves alongside the actual participants.
While I’ve never heard anyone describe playing the
horses as a sport in itself – when you have a score at
a meet like Ascot you feel extra accomplishment.
This year the tote pool betting on Ascot will be
more robust than ever because the worldwide tote
pool will be commingled, including money from
Hong Kong for the first time. Estimates are that
the pools over the five days could top $100 million.
The influx of new money could lead to unexpected
overlays and is certainly worth following.
Another reason to follow Ascot closely is to help
with your US Betting later in the year. It’s likely we’ll
see English, Irish, and/or French runners ship in for Tepin wins the 2016 Queen Anne
5
Top three two-year-olds
to follow at Royal Ascot
BY JAMIE LYNCH
Sky Sports Racing’s Senior Analyst looks at three of the most promising two-year-olds set to run at Royal Ascot
1 The Time Lord 2 The Fashionista 3 The Drag Racer
Bomb Proof – Windsor Castle Stakes, Divine Spirit – Albany Stakes, Friday Nayibeth – Albany Stakes, Friday
Wednesday
On the Royal Ascot track, or the Royal Ascot These days, Royal Ascot wouldn’t be Royal
Come Royal Ascot, the classiest two-year- catwalk, Divine Spirit is a model filly, very Ascot without the Wes Ward monster trucks
olds are often still finding their way and the much in vogue right now, because her father, rolling into town. Having run off with seven
backward ones finding their hay. That’s a Kingman (above, when winning at Royal Ascot juvenile prizes over the years, Ward knows
roundabout way of saying that the early- 2014), is the height of fashion, and her chic what it takes and takes what he knows, and,
summer meeting sometimes rewards the mother, Shyrl, graced this very stage in her despite Lady Pauline fluffing her lines in her
fastest horse as opposed to the best (in the heyday. Royal rehearsal, she may not have even been
fullness of time). at the front of the queue, anyway.
All of the above helps explain why she was
To that end, pace is power, and the clock says all the rage at the Breeze-Up Sale in April, Chief figuremaker of Timeform US, Craig
there was no more impressive debut this year Godolphin going to 850,000 guineas to get Milkowski, said that Nayibeth’s speedfigure (of
than Bomb Proof at York. her on the team. She was due to debut at 105) was “one of the highest speedfigures he’s
Ascot, on May 10th, significant as a dry run given to a newcomer,” certainly topping what
It’s only the exceptional juveniles that can perhaps, before the wet weather put paid to Lady Pauline had done on her debut, likewise
generate a Timeform time-figure of 100+ first that, but when the wraps were taken off, at at Keeneland.
time out, and, at 99, Bomb Proof was just Windsor, she made a striking start, more so
1lb shy of doing exactly that, despite Dettori That was on the dirt, but Nayibeth’s half-
than the length-and-three-quarter winning
gearing down by the line, after a fast-forward brother, Soldat, was a multiple Group winner
margin suggests.
move on the flank that had ‘Windsor Castle’ (up to 9f) on the turf in America.
4
written all over it. A Breeze-Up graduate, therefore conditioned
Wes Ward is pointing her towards the
to run fast, she ran too fast going to post at
Besides the big time-figure, that was a big 6f Albany, a race he’s yet to win, and
Windsor, refusing to settle, which puts a very
statement by Bomb Proof, and if you like your he’s intimated that she may be his best
different spin on what she was still able to do
Royal Ascot two-year-olds fast and fully- chance at the meeting, and that says
in the race, even then just getting going by the
formed then he’s one for you. a lot about Nayibeth.
end from the look of things.
It’s pretty clear already that she has a huge
engine, and it’s all about fine-tuning it ahead
of the first big date in her sophisticated
social diary.
6
Group 1
Stats Guides
By Paul Jones
What to look for, and what to avoid, when betting
in the eight top-level races at Royal Ascot
QUEEN ANNE STAKES POSITIVES:
1 mile (straight course), 4yo+, Ran in the Lockinge Stakes (won by Mustashry, left)
Prize Money: £600,000, Four years old
Breeders’ Cup Win and You’re In Owned by Godolphin
Tuesday 18th June Trained by Richard Hannon or Aidan O’Brien
The Queen Anne is the curtain-raiser of NEGATIVES:
the week, where the top milers battle it Failed to have won a Group 1 race
out over the straight mile. Start the race outside the first four in the betting
Unraced this season
Aged over five
KING’S STAND STAKES POSITIVES:
5f, 3yo+, Prize Money: £500,000 Won on its last start
Tuesday 18th June The Temple Stakes form, notably the winner (Battaash, left)
Finished in the first four in the Prix du Gros-Chene
The King’s Stand is a mouth-watering Three year-olds
contest between the fastest horses around, Fillies and mares
scorching up the five furlong course.
NEGATIVES:
Outside the first two on its last start
Failed to win a Group 1 or 2 race
Failed to win a Group race over 5f
Seasonal debutants
ST JAMES’S PALACE STAKES POSITIVES:
1 mile (round course), Ran in both the Newmarket and Irish 2000 Guineas
3yo only, Prize Money: £500,000 A Group 1 winner, especially if won a European Guineas –
Tuesday 18th June this brings in Magna Grecia and Phoenix Of Spain (left)
Start at single-figure odds
Which Guineas winner is the best? The top Trained by Aidan O’Brien
miling three-year-olds take aim at the St (especially if contested the Irish 2000 Guineas)
James’s Palace Stakes, a prize won by the Dewhurst Stakes winner (Too Darn Hot)
likes of Frankel, Kingman and Canford Cliffs
in recent years. NEGATIVES:
Yet to contest a Group 1 race
Failed to finish in the first four of any 2000 Guineas
7
PRINCE OF WALES’S STAKES POSITIVES:
1m 2f, 4yo+, Prize Money: £750,000, Winner on its previous start
Breeders’ Cup Win and You’re In The Tattersalls Gold Cup or Prix Ganay winner (Waldgeist)
Wednesday 19th June Contested last season’s renewal
Trained in France
The Prince of Wales’s Stakes could well be the
race of the meeting, with Magical, Sea Of Class, NEGATIVES:
Waldgeist (left) and Masar all set to run in the Yet to win a Group/Grade 1 race
richest race of the week. Unplaced on its previous start
Likely to start bigger than 8/1
Odds-on shots have a poor record
GOLD CUP POSITIVES:
2m 4f, 4yo+, Prize Money: £500,000 Won already this season
Thursday 20th June Likely to start no bigger than 7/1
Irish-trained
The feature race of Royal Ascot, the Gold Cup Won last year’s Queen’s Vase (Kew Gardens, left)
takes centre-stage on Thursday, attracting Contested the Henry II Stakes at Sandown
the best staying horses to fight it out over the Horses that have won or placed in middle distances Group 1
gruelling 2m 4f trip. Godolphin-owned contenders
NEGATIVES:
Yet to win a Group 1 or Group 2 race
Aged older than six
Trained in France
COMMONWEALTH CUP POSITIVES:
6f, 3yo only, Prize Money: £500,000 Won the Sandy Lane Stakes
Friday 21st June Contested the Pavilion Stakes
In only four years, the Commonwealth Cup
NEGATIVES:
has established itself as one of the races
None
of the meeting, where the best three-year-
old sprinters fight it out in one of the most
competitive feats of the week.
CORONATION STAKES POSITIVES:
1m (round), 3yo only, Finished in the first six in the Newmarket 1000 Guineas
Prize Money: £500,000 The Irish 1000 Guineas winner (Hermosa, left)
Friday 21st June The favourite
Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
Won by some super horses in recent years Won a pattern race as a two-year-old
such as Alpha Centauri and Winter, the
Coronation Stakes gives the fillies a chance at NEGATIVES:
the limelight over the round mile course. Not run in a Classic
Likely to start bigger than 6/1
Beaten in the Irish 1000 Guineas
DIAMOND JUBILEE STAKES POSITIVES:
6f, 4yo+, Prize Money: £600,000, Won or placed at Royal Ascot before
Breeders’ Cup Win and You’re In Contested the Duke of York Stakes (especially finishing first
Saturday 22nd June or second)
Won a Group or Listed race earlier in the season
The feature sprint of the meeting, the Diamond Non-European trained contenders (Bound For Nowhere, left)
Jubilee attracts the world’s best sprinters to Contested a 7f race at some point during their career
Ascot, with the winner automatically qualifying
for the Breeders’ Cup in Santa Anita. NEGATIVES:
Not won over 6f
Seasonal debutants
8
International
International racing expert
Nicholas Godfrey profiles four
of the most fascinating runners
runners set to take their chance this
week at Ascot
Can Houtzen make up for the Aussie
drought at the Royal meeting?
HOUTZEN
After a decade in which it seemed their sprinters at Gold Coast before getting undone on
could do no wrong, Australia has gone winless at heavy ground when she was favourite for the
Royal Ascot since Black Caviar’s unforgettable Golden Slipper.
triumph in 2012.
Royal Ascot has been a long-term plan for Houtzen,
Charged with bucking that negative trend is flying who has been in Newmarket since March.
filly Houtzen, who will be partnered by Kerrin
“Don’t get me wrong: we have huge respect for
McEvoy in the King’s Stand Stakes.
world-class sprinters like Battaash and Blue Point,”
And one thing’s for sure: they would have struggled Edmonds states.
to find a faster horse to fly the Aussie flag than the
“But to win the King’s Stand would be massive for
Queensland-based four-year-old, who exits the
us, the biggest moment in my old man’s career
starting gate like a shot from a gun.
without a doubt. Just to have a runner at Royal
Trained by Toby Edmonds for the internationally- Ascot is massive; to win would be the ultimate.”
minded Aquis Farm team, Houtzen has shown star
potential since her two-year-old days, when she
won the richly-endowed Magic Millions 2YO Classic
9
DEIRDRE
There has never been a Japanese-trained winner at After Deirdre finished fourth behind superstar
the royal meeting; indeed, albeit from only a handful compatriot Almond Eye at Meydan in March, hopes
of runners, none has ever made the frame. were high she would figure in the QEII Cup in Hong
Kong the following month but she was unable to
The nation’s hopes this time around rest solely with land a blow.
Deirdre, a Classic-winning daughter of Sir Michael
Stoute’s brilliant King George hero Harbinger set Rather than pack up and go home, her trainer
to be ridden by the legendary Yutaka Take in the decided to roll the dice and take up the Royal Ascot
Prince of Wales’s Stakes. option in the hope a change of scenery might spark
a revival.
The five-year-old ended a ten-year-drought at the
top level for veteran trainer Mitsuru Hashida when The Deirdre team are under no illusions about the
landing the Shuka Sho (Japanese fillies’ St Leger) magnitude of their task in the Prince of Wales’s.
over 2,000 metres (1m2f) in 2017. “We are very excited and it is a big ambition of my
father to win abroad,” says Seiko.
In a four-year racing career, she has won seven of
her 19 starts at home altogether; those victories “It is an honour to be at Royal Ascot but we know it
also include three more successes in minor Group will be very tough to run against these super horses
company. when they are at home but it is good to challenge
and there is a lot of interest at home.” Royal Ascot
She has also left her mark abroad, having finished success would also be a first for Deirdre’s rider
third and fourth in the last two runnings of the Yutaka Take, the Japanese nonpareil who stands
Dubai Turf, and also runner-up in the Longines clear atop the all-time list for JRA jockeys with well
Hong Kong Cup in December at Sha Tin, where she over 4,000 domestic winners and 18 jockeys’ titles.
was sent off favourite before finishing fast and late Take, who is now 50, has ridden winners in eight
when beaten only a length by Glorious Forever. Deirdre bids for Prince of Wales’s
countries outside Japan. Stakes glory
IMPRIMIS
The only American-trained horse to win at Royal Orseno himself is no stranger to the biggest stages,
Ascot not trained by Wesley Ward was the having saddled Red Bullet to beat Kentucky Derby
formidable racemare Tepin, who won the Queen winner Fusaichi Pegasus in the 2000 Preakness;
Anne Stakes three years ago for Mark Casse. that same year, he won two Breeders’ Cup races
with Macho Uno (Juvenile) and Perfect Sting (Filly &
Trying to emulate her exploits by leaving his mark
Mare Turf).
on the first-day card – albeit in a different race –
is the five-year-old gelding Imprimis, who will be “I go into every race thinking I belong in there and
ridden by Frankie Dettori for Florida-based trainer have a shot,” says Orseno. “The odds might say it’s
Joe Orseno in the King’s Stand. an upset but the day we won the Preakness I totally
Coady Photography
expected to win that race. My horse was training
Imprimis has won seven of his nine career starts,
so well.
catapulting himself towards the head of the US
turf sprint rankings with an eye-catching display “It’s about having your horse ready for a particular
last time out in the Grade 2 Shakertown Stakes at day and right now Imprimis is on top of his game.”
Keeneland in April, when he almost went down on
Imprimis holds off fellow raider Bound
his knees after exiting the gate. For Nowhere in the Shakertown Stakes
LIM’S CRUISER
Lim’s Cruiser will be breaking new ground in the “It’s the right race to have a go, we’re not going for
Diamond Jubilee Stakes in which the late-running just the top hats,” says Gray. “If he gets rain and he
sprinter is set to become a first runner at Royal handles the straight, he could have a chance. We
Ascot for Singapore. thought about it and actually saw more reasons to
go to England than not to go and I really think he’s
Having started life in Australia, the six-year-old
improved since his last race. He should be spot-on.”
gelding has risen to the top of the region’s sprint
ranks since his move to Kranji racecourse, where he “It’s always been my dream to have horses
is trained by New Zealand expat Stephen Gray. good enough to take on overseas horses,” Gray
continues. “That’s what it’s all about, represent
His record in Singapore stands at eight wins from
Singapore on the international stage and this is
20 starts, among them back-to-back successes in
one such horse who deserves to have a shot.”
the Lion City Cup (2017 and 2018), a local Group 1
event over 1,200 metres (6f).
Vlad Duric, champion jockey in
Singapore, is set to take the ride
10ROYAL ASCOT 2019
ORDER OF RUNNING
DAY 1 - TUESDAY, JUNE 18
TIME RACE DISTANCE PRIZE MONEY AGE
2.30 Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) (QBCS) (BCW&YI) 1m str £600,000 4+
3.05 Coventry Stakes (Group 2) 6f £150,000 2
3.40 King’s Stand Stakes (Group 1) (QBCS) 5f £500,000 3+
4.20 St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1) (QBCS) 1m rnd (7f 213y) £500,000 3
5.00 Ascot Handicap (0-100) 2m 4f (2m 3f 210y) £90,000 4+
5.35 Wolferton Stakes (Listed) 1m 2f (1m 1f 212y) £100,000 4+
£1,940,000
DAY 2 - WEDNESDAY, JUNE 19
TIME RACE DISTANCE PRIZE MONEY AGE
2.30 Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) 5f £110,000 2
3.05 Queen’s Vase (Group 2) 1m 6f (1m 6f 34y) £225,000 3
3.40 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1) (QBCS) (BCW&YI) 1m 2f (1m 1f 212y) £750,000 4+
4.20 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) 1m str £175,000 4+
5.00 Royal Hunt Cup Heritage Handicap 1m str £175,000 3+
5.35 Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) 5f £90,000 2
£1,525.000
DAY 3 - THURSDAY, JUNE 20
TIME RACE DISTANCE PRIZE MONEY AGE
2.30 Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) (BCW&YI) 5f £100,000 2
3.05 Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) 1m 2f (1m 1f 212y) £90,000 3
3.40 Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) 1m 4f (1m 3f 211y) £200,000 3
4.20 Gold Cup (Group 1) (QBCS) 2m 4f (2m 3f 210y) £500,000 4+
5.00 Britannia Heritage Handicap (0-105) 1m str £120,000 3
5.35 King George V Handicap (0-105) 1m 4f (1m 3f 211y) £90,000 3
£1,100,000
11DAY 4 - FRIDAY, JUNE 21
TIME RACE DISTANCE PRIZE MONEY AGE
2.30 Albany Stakes (Group 3) 6f £90,000 2
3.05 King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) 1m 4f (1m 3f 211y) £225,000 3
3.40 Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (QBCS) 6f £500,000 3
4.20 Coronation Stakes (Group 1) (QBCS) 1m rnd (7f 213y) £500,000 3
5.00 Sandringham Handicap (0-105) 1m str £90,000 3
5.35 Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap (0-105) 1m 4f (1m 3f 211y) £90,000 3+
£1,495,000
DAY 5 - SATURDAY, JUNE 22
TIME RACE DISTANCE PRIZE MONEY AGE
2.30 Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) 7f £90,000 2
3.05 Jersey Stakes (Group 3) 7f £90,000 3
3.40 Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) 1m 4f (1m 3f 211y) £225,000 4+
4.20 Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (QBCS) (BCW&YI) 6f £600,000 4+
5.00 Wokingham Heritage Handicap (0-110) 6f £175,000 3+
5.35 Queen Alexandra Conditions Race 2m 5f 143y £90,000 4+
£1,270,000
Eight G1s Total prize money: record £7,330,000
Eight G2s QBCS=QIPCO British Champions Series
Three G3s BCW&YI=Breeders’ Cup ‘Win and You’re In’
Three Listed
All times are correct to BST, UTC – 1 hr, EDT – 5 hr, CDT – 6hr, MDT – 7hr, PDT – 8hr.
12Jim CrowleY:
Royal Ascot
2019
The former Champion Jockey talks exclusively to Tony
Elves about the pick of his rides for Royal Ascot this year
Jim Crowley looks professionalism personified as he
calmly gazes through the stalls waiting for the starter
to open the gates but like his weighing room colleagues
those elusive butterflies remain as he eagerly panders
for Royal Ascot success.
With the domination of the Ballydoyle battalions,
Stoutes and Gosdens, chances must be grasped
with both hands. After turning his skills from the
Jumps to the Flat in 2006, Crowley had to wait until
2011 to capture a first victory at Royal Ascot, when
he partnered Prohibit to a half-length success from
Australian challenger Star Witness in the Group 1 King’s
Stand Stakes.
Crowley said: “For any jockey it’s the biggest meeting of the
season – you have the Classics but it doesn’t really get any
better than the five days of Royal Ascot and going there with
a horse that has a chance gives you a real buzz. Leaving Royal
Ascot without a winner isn’t much fun and if you have one
then it makes the week.”
Attentions are focused on the five days that commence on
June 18, and Crowley has a potential book of rides that will,
hopefully, have him purring at the end of the week.
Jim Crowley celebrates his first Royal Ascot success aboard Prohibit in 2011
13Mustashry
The week could start off with a bang as he
looks likely to have Mustashry on his side in
the opening Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes.
Like so many of Sir Michael Stoute’s horses,
Mustashry has improved with age and the
six-year-old gelding recorded a career best
performance when registering a Group 1 success
with a two and a half-length defeat of Laurens
in the Lockinge at Newbury last month.
Jim said: “He’s a very tough and genuine
horse and it was a great performance in the
Lockinge. He’s very versatile trip-wise and
has won from seven furlongs to 1m 2f.
“There doesn’t seem to be many chinks
in his armour and he’s a solid horse and
turns up and does his job. Hopefully, he
goes there with a very good chance.”
Mustashry powers clear from Laurens to take the Lockinge
Battaash
Possibly the pick of Crowley’s rides
could be Battaash who runs in the
King’s Stand later on the first day.
“I would be very disappointed if he gets beat. He
probably wasn’t as in good form as he is now going
into Ascot and last year, unfortunately, Lady Aurelia
missed the kick along with Kachy and Battaash
ended up doing all the donkey work,” said Crowley.
“He looked the real deal when winning the
Temple Stakes again and, if we can just
hold onto him, I would think he is probably
my best chance at the meeting.”
Battaash storms to Group 1 glory in the 2017 Prix de l’Abbaye at Chantilly
Afaak
There will be others to be finalised but there is
one that could well be worth a second glance
– “It looks like I will ride Afaak in the Royal Hunt
Cup. Charlie Hills has trained him for the race so
hopefully we go there with a decent chance and
he would have to be there or thereabouts.”
The future might be orange for some, but blue
is the colour as far as Jim Crowley is concerned
with the distinct possibly that a Royal Ascot
double last year could be matched or exceeded.
Afaak (blue silks) finishing second in the 2018 Royal Hunt Cup
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