2019 INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT - IndiaNotes

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2019 INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT - IndiaNotes
INVESTMENT
 STRATEGY REPORT

        2019
2019 INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT - IndiaNotes
INVESTMENT
 STRATEGY REPORT
        2019

               Vivek Ranjan Misra
                  040 - 3321 6296
         vivekr.misra@karvy.com

                 Karvy Stock Broking Research
                                is available on
                           Thomson Reuters &
                 Bloomberg (Code: KRVY)
INDEX
   Wealth Maximizer Table......................................................... 1
   Value Invest Table................................................................... 1
   Dividend Maximizer Table...................................................... 1
   Market Outlook................................................................... 2-3
   An Interview with Our CEO, Rajiv Singh............................ 4-6
   2019 – A Year of Economic Optimism in India...................... 7
   Equity Market - 2019 Outlook...........................................8-14
   Sector Outlook................................................................. 15-18
        Automobiles.................................................................................. 15
        Capital Goods & Infrastructure................................................ 16
        Metals and Mining.................................................................. 16-17
        IT Sector......................................................................................... 18
   Indian Economic Outlook................................................ 19-21
   The Global Economic Outlook.........................................22-26
   Wealth Maximizer ................................................................. 27
        Bharti Infratel Ltd.................................................................. 28-29
        HCL Technologies Ltd.......................................................... 30-31
        Hindustan Unilever Ltd........................................................ 32-33
        ICICI Bank................................................................................34-35
        Larsen & Toubro Ltd............................................................. 36-37
        Oil & Natural Gas Corp Ltd................................................. 38-39
        State Bank of India Ltd.........................................................40-41
        Tata Motors Ltd.....................................................................42-43
        UPL Ltd.................................................................................... 44-45
        Yes Bank Ltd...........................................................................46-47
   Value Invest...........................................................................49
        Bajaj Electricals Ltd............................................................... 50-51
        Finolex Cables Ltd................................................................. 52-53
        Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd.................................................54-55
        K.P.R. Mill Ltd..........................................................................56-57
        Menon Bearings Ltd.............................................................58-59
        Relaxo Footwears Ltd.......................................................... 60-61
        Sunteck Realty Ltd................................................................ 62-63
        Take Solutions Ltd.................................................................64-65
        The Phoenix Mills Ltd............................................................ 66-67
        Visaka Industries Ltd............................................................68-69
   Dividend Maximizer...............................................................71
        Dividend Maximizer Outlook.....................................................72
        Bajaj Corp Ltd...............................................................................73
        Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd.................................................... 74
        Bharti Infratel Ltd........................................................................ 75
        Graphite India Ltd........................................................................76
        Hero Motocorp Ltd......................................................................77
        Indiabulls Housing Finance Ltd.................................................78
        Indian Oil Corp Ltd.......................................................................79
        JK Tyre & Industries Ltd............................................................. 80
        Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd............................... 81
        Vedanta Ltd...................................................................................82
   Disclaimer.............................................................................. 83
WEALTH MAXIMIZER
                                                                                                               Market Cap     CMP*       Target Price
 Company Name                            NSE Symbol              Sector                                                                                       Upside (%)
                                                                                                                (Rs. Bn.)     (Rs.)          (Rs.)

 Bharti Infratel Ltd                     INFRATEL                Telecom                                          486             263          308                17

 HCL Technologies Ltd                    HCLTECH                 IT                                               1335            958          1167               22

 Hindustan Unilever Ltd                  HINDUNILVR              FMCG                                            3944          1822            2138               17

 ICICI Bank Ltd                          ICICIBANK               Banking                                          2323            361          440                22

 Larsen & Toubro Ltd                     LT                      Infrastructure                                   2018        1439             1700               18

 Oil & Natural Gas Corp Ltd              ONGC                    Oil & gas                                        1931            151           210               39

 State Bank of India Ltd                 SBIN                    Banking                                          2631            295           347               18

 Tata Motors Ltd                         TATAMOTORS              Automotive                                       540             171           259               51

 UPL Ltd                                 UPL                     Chemicals                                        386             758          1004               32

 Yes Bank Ltd                            YESBANK                 Banking                                          420             181           410              127

                                                                                                                                           VALUE INVEST
                                                                                                               Market Cap     CMP*      Target Price
 Company Name                            NSE Symbol              Sector                                                                                       Upside (%)
                                                                                                                (Rs. Bn.)      Rs.)        (Rs.)
 Bajaj Electricals Ltd                   BAJAJELEC               Electrical Equipment                              51             497          670               35

 Finolex Cables Ltd                      FINCABLES               Electrical Equipment                             70              459          600                31

 Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd             JISLJALEQS              Farm Machinery & Equipment                        35             69            101              46

 K.P.R. Mill Ltd                         KPRMILL                 Textiles                                          41             565           716              27

 Menon Bearings Ltd                      MENONBE                 Auto Ancillary                                    4              79            120              52

 Relaxo Footwears Ltd                    RELAXO                  Footwear                                          88             732           911              24

 Sunteck Realty Ltd                      SUNTECK                 Real Estate                                       51             348          497               43

 Take Solutions Ltd                      TAKE                    IT                                                22             148           226              53

 The Phoenix Mills Ltd                   PHOENIXLTD              Real Estate                                       85             557          735               32

 Visaka Industries Ltd                   VISAKAIND               Construction Materials                            7              426          750               76

DIVIDEND MAXIMIZER
 Company Name                                           NSE Symbol               Sector                                  Market Cap     CMP*          D.P.S#       D.P#
                                                                                                                          (Rs. Bn.)     (Rs.)          (Rs.)       (%)
 Bajaj Corp Ltd                                         BAJAJCORP                Consumer Staples                           53          360            13.4        77.9

 Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd                           BHEL                     Industrial Electrical Equipment            265          72            2.3         54.0

 Bharti Infratel Ltd                                     INFRATEL                Telecom                                    486         263            11.2        89.3

 Graphite India Ltd                                     GRAPHITE                 Electrical Equipment                       151         770            56.7        31.8

 Hero MotoCorp Ltd                                      HEROMOTOCO               Automotive                                 624         3123          109.9        58.0

 Indiabulls Housing Finance Ltd                         IBULHSGFIN               NBFC                                       362         849            48.8        41.2

 Indian Oil Corp Ltd                                    IOC                      Oil & Gas                                  1342         138            8.1        43.0

 JK Tyre & Industries Ltd                               JKTYRE                   Auto Ancillary                             24          104            3.8         17.7

 Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd                  MCX                      Financial Services                         37          733            29.4        90.6

 Vedanta Ltd                                            VEDL                     Metals & Mining                            741          199           14.0        44.5

*As on Dec 28, 2018, M.Cap: Market Cap, DPS: Dividend Per Share, D.P: Dividend Payout, # Bloomberg Estimates

     1                                                                                                    KARVY INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT 2019
MARKET
OUTLOOK
                               Heading into 2019, we are in the midst of a debate about the prospects of the world
                               economy and whether a global recession is looming. While data certainly points to a
                               slowdown in growth, the Indian economy is resilient and we find ourselves relatively
                               optimistic.
                               The US yield curve has flattened and the spread between the 10 year yield and 2 year
                               yield is 19 bps, a negative spread (or an inverted yield curve) usually points to a recession
                               ahead. However, more than US, data from other parts of the global economy are weak.
                               Caixin Manufacturing PMI for China for December 2018 dropped below 50 (came in at
Vivek Ranjan Misra             49.7) the first contraction since May 2017. Similarly, the Eurozone flash PMI dipped to 51.4
Head of Fundamental Research
                               in December 2018 from 51.8 in November, the slowest pace of expansion since February
                               2016. Exports from Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone were down 0.9% in
                               the recent quarter, while the imports have risen by 1.3%, Germany’s economy grew by
                               1.1% YoY for the third quarter 2018, last quarter Japanese economy declined by 0.6%.
                               However, not all is bad, in the US, consumer confidence is near an 18 year high, whereas
                               unemployment rate at 3.7% is at a 40 year low. This indicates that consumption will be
                               resilient as wages are likely to rise on account of a tight labor market. While the Chinese
                               economy is facing a period of weakness, continuation of the trade wars is a risk. However,
                               China has eased both monetary and fiscal policy. China has plenty of policy tools at its
                               disposal to counteract a slowdown; its FX reserves are USD 3.1 trillion, which gives it
                               flexibility in managing a slowdown.
                               Indian economy remains resilient. IMF forecasts growth for FY2019-20 to be 7.4%, which
                               is a strong number. What makes us optimistic about equities is that growth drivers are
                               changing from private consumption to investment in Q2FY2018-19; Gross Fixed Capital
                               Formation (GFCF) increased by 12.5% YoY recording the third consecutive quarter of
                               double digit growth.
                               This has implications for the equity markets, as corporate earnings are more dependent
                               on growth in capex. Earnings growth has been the missing part of the story for Indian
                               stocks and good corporate earnings growth should boost stocks. While liquidity in money
                               markets is a risk, we believe RBI is in a position to manage this risk.

                               Exhibit: Sensex

                                          50000

                                          40000

                                          30000

                                          20000

                                           10000

                                                0
                                                                                                                          2010
                                                    2000

                                                                                                                                 2011
                                                           2001

                                                                                                                                                      2014
                                                                                2004

                                                                                                                                                             2015

                                                                                                                                                                    2016

                                                                                                                                                                                  2018
                                                                                       2005

                                                                                              2006

                                                                                                                   2009
                                                                                                            2008

                                                                                                                                               2013

                                                                                                                                                                           2017
                                                                                                                                        2012
                                                                         2003

                                                                                                     2007
                                                                  2002

                               Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

    2                                                                                                       KARVY INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT 2019
Exhibit: Performance of Indian equities relative to peers

               120

                110

               100

                90

                80

                                                                                                                         Jun-18
                                                                                                                                  Jun-18
                                                 Feb-18
                                                          Feb-18

                                                                                                                                                                                        Sep-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Sep-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Oct-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Oct-18
                                                                   Mar-18
                                                                            Mar-18

                                                                                                                                           Jul-18
                                                                                                                                                    Jul-18
                                                                                                                                                             Jul-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Dec-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Dec-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Dec-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Nov-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Nov-18
                                                                                                                                                                      Aug-18
                                                                                                                                                                               Aug-18
                      Jan-18
                               Jan-18
                                        Jan-18

                                                                                     Apr-18
                                                                                              Apr-18
                                                                                                       May-18
                                                                                                                May-18
                                                   EM                                                  EM Asia                                                 AP x JP                                                      All country

    Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

    The resignation of the Governor of RBI was a negative development but quick appointment
    of a new Governor helped, going forward the RBI may be less hawkish with regards to
    monetary policy.
    The major event risk for Indian markets is on account of elections. Unlike 2014, the political
    outcome appears unclear. Due to an uncertain political outlook, 2019 may shape up to a
    tale of two halves, equities moving sideways ahead of the elections. If the elections lead
    to a formation of a stable, business friendly government, Nifty may end the year 2019 at
    14,000.
    Given this, we favour cyclical sectors, we prefer Banks, Capital Goods. Also growth should
    boost Consumption Discretionary and Autos. State owned banks could be a dark horse
    in 2019, on account of peak in NPL cycle, recovery of NPL’s via IBC and low valuations. A
    broad based economic recovery will be supportive.
    We believe that over the coming quarters, large caps are likely to do better. Mid and small
    caps are likely to underperform until their valuations become attractive. We believe that
    after mid 2019, with decent time correction, conditions may be favourable for mid and
    small caps to perform well.

3                                                                                                                        KARVY INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT 2019
AN INTERVIEW WITH OUR CEO,
RAJIV SINGH
                               Q) What are the lessons for investors from 2018?
                               Firstly, volatility in markets has increased; over the last few years, volatility has been low
                               on account of the low interest rates, especially in the US, as the interest rate cycle has
                               turned, volatility regime is now normalizing. CBOE VIX often called the fear gauge was
                               unusually low; 11% at the start of 2018, this has increased significantly since then and
                               stands at 25%. Similarly, India VIX which bottomed at 12.7% at the start of 2018, is up
                               2.7x and is currently at 34%. Higher volatility is not necessarily negative; we can witness
                               sharper moves in either direction.
Rajiv Singh
CEO - Broking Business, KSBL
                               The second lesson is with regard to risk- geopolitical risk has risen; a couple of examples
                               come to mind, the first is the emergence of trade wars between the world’s two largest
                               economies, the US and China. A few days back, the market believed that there had been
                               a truce, but recent events like the arrest of Huawei’s CFO in Canada means this is still a
                               risk. Secondly, the threat of sanctions on Iran had led to a sharp escalation in oil price,
                               threatening to derail the global economy, thankfully the world stepped back from the
                               brink of this event.
                               Thirdly, themes that worked last year may not work this year. In 2017, Small and Midcaps
                               were a big theme, and the BSE Mid and Small cap index returns were a handsome 54%
                               outperforming Sensex which gave a 27% return. This theme disappointed in 2018, BSE
                               Mid and Small cap index declined by 20%, whereas Sensex increased by 5.9%. The lesson
                               is to constantly reevaluate the investment themes and be ready to make changes to your
                               portfolio.
                               Fourthly, watch out for changes in regulatory and tax regime, the (re)introduction of
                               Long Term Capital Gains tax in the budget for FY2018-19 is a negative for investors. While
                               at the time of introduction in February 2018, this was widely anticipated, investors who
                               bought equities at the beginning of the Bull Run certainly didn’t factor this in.
                               Fifthly, watch out for the global economy-during the 2008 global financial crisis, India
                               was impacted largely on account of the financial channel rather than the direct economic
                               impact. India has a current account deficit (2.9% of GDP in July-September 2008 quarter),
                               this deficit needs to be funded by capital inflows which make India vulnerable to direction
                               of global capital flows. Similarly, events outside India- rise in oil prices, strengthening of
                               the US dollar led to a 14% correction in Nifty between August and October 2018. Global
                               capital flows have a major impact on Indian asset markets. As we head into 2019, fears
                               of a global recession have risen, and while we believe a recession is unlikely in 2019, the
                               global economy may be slowing down. In the coming quarters, investors need to keep a
                               keen eye for economic data from China, Europe, Japan and US.

                               Q) What is your outlook for equity markets in 2019?
                               We believe that 2019 may be a year of two halves-the equity market is likely to move
                               sideways due to the overhang of the General Elections.

    4                                                                    KARVY INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT 2019
Election of a stable, business friendly government can provide the next trigger to equities.
    As we enter 2019, there are a number of risks, as well as positive triggers. On the whole,
    we believe the positives outweigh the negatives.
    While the macro outlook for India has deteriorated somewhat, but still remains strong;
    growth for FY2019-20 is expected to be 7.4%. Importantly, we believe growth will be led
    by Capex. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) increased by 12.5% YoY during Q2FY19,
    the third consecutive quarter of double digit growth. This is important for equity markets
    as it will boost corporate earnings which can sustain the next rally in equities. In the past
    few years, corporate earnings growth has been poor and a turnaround in the earnings
    cycle can sustain the next rally in equities. According to the recently released RBI’s
    financial stability report, gross non-performing assets (NPA) of banks decreased from
    11.5% in March 2018 to 10.8% in September 2018 and are expected to further decline to
    10.3% by March 2019. This is positive for the economy and markets. Our target for Nifty
    for December 2019 is 14,000.

    Q) What are the risks for equities in 2019?
    Domestically, the main risk is of an unfavourable election outcome. If an unstable coalition
    were to come into power later this year, Nifty may decline to 9,000. The second risk is
    on account of monetary conditions. Liquidity has tightened, and interest rate cycle has
    reversed, not only in India but worldwide. Domestically this has impacted NBFCs and if
    this impacts the flow of credit, it is a negative for markets. The US is tightening by two
    means, firstly by raising interest rates, and secondly by reducing the size of its balance
    sheet by USD 50 bn (quantitative tightening) a month. Tightening of monetary conditions
    is among the reasons that have led IMF to downgrade world GDP growth forecast for
    2019 to 3.7% from 3.9% earlier.
    Much of the risks for 2019 are global in nature, many investors are fearful of a recession
    in the global economy. Many attribute the decline in equities (US equities were down 19%
    last week) to an imminent recession.
    The yield curve (difference between 10 year and 2 year government treasury yield) in the
    US has flattened trading at a spread of 19 bps, this has also heightened fears. Inversion
    (when the spread is negative) is an indicator of a recession, but the yield curve, is yet
    to turn negative. More than the US, data from China is worrying; Caixin Manufacturing
    PMI dropped to 49.7 (below 50 implies contraction) and China is taking steps to counter
    the slowdown by loosening policy. Similarly, data from Europe and Japan also point to
    weakening. We believe that the world economy is set to slow, but we are not on the cusp
    of a recession yet.
    Downturn in equities is typically preceded by euphoria- right now caution abounds; it
    is said that to make a bull market you need to climb a wall of worry. There are a lot of
    worries around and the bull market may still have legs.

    Q) Which sectors are the best bets for 2019?
    We favour sectors that are geared to a recovery in capex cycle namely Banks, Capital
    Goods. Banks should benefit from the increase in demand for credit as economic activity
    picks up and Capital Goods should benefit from an increase in orders on account of

5                                             KARVY INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT 2019
capex. An increase in economic activity should boost employment prospects and thus
    discretionary consumption. We like Autos and Discretionary Consumption stocks. State
    owned banks could be a dark horse in 2019 on account of peak in NPL cycle, recovery of
    NPL’s via IBC and low valuations. A broad based economic recovery will be supportive.

    Q) What about Crude- is it a risk for India as we head into 2019?
    Global crude oil prices have been witnessing a roller coaster ride and have been quite
    volatile for some time now. The price of crude oil plummeted from a high of ~$115/bbl in
    mid-2014 to a low of ~$28/bbl in January 2016 and to $54-55/bbl now.
    Prices of crude oil play a significant role in an economy and India’s growth story revolves
    around the import of crude oil which amounts to nearly 30% of the total imports. India’s
    macro-economic factors such as inflation, fiscal deficit and current account deficit have
    improved many notches over the last couple of years, mainly due to falling crude oil prices.
    A bit of background - The price of the Indian basket of crude oil crashed from US$ 113 per
    barrel in May 2014 to US$ 50 in January 2015 and remained subdued. But oil prices surged
    to $86 a barrel in November 2018, faster than expected as the Venezuelan economic
    crisis and threats of sanctions on Iran led to a bigger production cut than intended and
    targeted by OPEC and non-OPEC members.
    However, in the last few weeks, oil prices have retreated on news that the US crude
    production may rise and on expectations of weak demand growth. Despite the supply
    cuts agreed by OPEC+, oil prices have remained subdued.
    A $10 per barrel increase in the price of oil reduces growth by 0.2-0.3 percentage points,
    increases WPI inflation by about 1.7 percentage points and worsens the current account
    deficit by about $9-10 billion dollars according to Economic Survey 2018.A fall in crude
    prices is thus positive for Indian economy as it will help boost economic growth. Politically,
    this will also be helpful for the current government in the upcoming elections.

    Q) What are your thoughts about the long term prospects for Indian economy?
    According to IMF, India is likely to be the world’s fifth largest economy in 2019, with a size
    of USD 2.95 trillion. Earlier in the year, the Indian government said that India is likely to
    double its GDP by 2025 to cross $5 trillion.
    The drivers of economic growth are well known, namely favourable demographics, a rising
    middle class, as well as impact of economic reforms. There are a few hurdles though.
    Firstly, India needs to carry out a number of difficult economic reforms, especially in the
    areas of labor, agriculture, land. Secondly, it needs to cut red tape in order to boost ease of
    doing business. Thirdly, privatization of PSUs is necessary and lastly, it needs to carry out
    further fiscal consolidation. In addition to these, there are a number of long term issues
    that need attention - the quality of workforce is not as high as it was in Asian “miracle
    economies” due to lack of quality education in government schools. Healthcare needs
    attention; lack of quality infrastructure in government hospitals is a big problem; The
    issue of malnourishment needs to be tackled, 38% of the Indian children aged between
    0-5 are malnourished, resulting in a definite and irreversible damage to their physical and
    mental capabilities. The labor force participation rate remains low, especially of women
    (27% according to estimates) needs to improve and government needs to adopt policies
    to encourage their higher participation rate.

6                                              KARVY INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT 2019
2019 – A YEAR OF ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM IN INDIA

                             With the start of the New Year 2019, the equity market may lay focus on some important
                             economic events like Bank recapitalisation, populist measure if any in the Interim Budget,
                             farm loan waiver effects, GST collection trends, progress under the insolvency code
                             and interest rate trajectory. Based on the outcome of the recent State Elections and the
                             General Elections due in the first half of calendar 2019, the government is likely to focus
                             more on the rural and agriculture sector. Creation of jobs at an accelerated pace could
                             be one more focus area.
                             The market participants will watch out for earnings upgrade for companies following
Dr. Ravi Singh               normalisation of economic conditions on account of GST modifications ahead of the
Head of Technical Research   General Elections. While confidence about earnings growth is rising, the outcome of
                             General Elections will give a final direction to the Indian equity markets. The more stable
                             and sound the formation of the new government, the more stable and strong would be
                             the Indian markets performance and vice versa.
                             The PSU Bank recapitalisation along with the Bharatmala and Housing for All initiatives
                             by the government has multi-fold implications and can materially revive the capex
                             cycle with potential acceleration in housing, railways and defence, ultimately having a
                             multiplier impact on GDP. With the General Elections due in May 2019, government has
                             refocused on growth going by its recent actions of fuel tax cuts, changing import duty
                             on agri commodities, GST rate rationalisation, higher MSP hikes and bank recapitalisation
                             plan. Though coupled with near-term pain of higher fiscal deficit, these initiatives may
                             put India on an accelerated growth trajectory from FY19 onwards.
                             However, the biggest area of concerns would be the worsening of the macro factors like
                             delay in resumption of GDP growth, ongoing global trade wars, unexpected impulses of
                             the US government and sustained interest rate rise in developed economies. Liquidity
                             in the markets continues to be good especially from the domestic investors. FIIs could
                             reevaluate investing in India in a big way since the inflation is under control and the
                             economic growth is satisfactory.
                             The calendar year 2018 has been a marginal year for investors with the Nifty giving
                             3% return. Investors would do well to moderate their expectations for index returns in
                             calendar year 2019. We expect Nifty to face resistance around 11750 levels followed by
                             12000 levels for the year ahead. On the lower side, we expect 10000 levels as support
                             followed by 9000 levels in extreme cases. Banking, Pharma, OMCs, Cement and Infra are
                             some sectors to watch out for in 2019.

     7                                                                KARVY INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT 2019
EQUITY MARKET - 2019
OUTLOOK
        In 2018, Nifty returns were 3.2%, disappointing investors after a 28.6% return in CY2017.
        However, over the last 5 years, investors have earned 11.3% in price returns.

        Exhibit: Nifty Returns
                   100%
                     80%
                     60%

                                                                                                            75.8%

                                                                                                                                                         31.4%
                                                           71.9%

                                                                                                                                                                                28.6%
                                                                                                                                          27.7%
                    40%

                                                                                                                    17.9%
                                                                                           54.8%
                                                                   10.7%

                                                                                   39.8%

                                                                                                                                                                         3.0%
                                                                           36.3%

                                                                                                                                                  6.8%
                                                    3.3%

                                                                                                                                                                                        3.2%
                     20%
                      0%

                                                                                                                                                                 -4.1%
                                                                                                   -51.8%
                   -20%
                                           -16.2%

                                                                                                                            2011 -24.6%
                             2000 -20.6%

                   -40%
                   -60%

                                                                                                                    2010
                                           2001

                                                                                                                                                         2014
                                                                   2004

                                                                                                                                                                 2015

                                                                                                                                                                         2016

                                                                                                                                                                                        2018
                                                                           2005

                                                                                   2006

                                                                                                            2009
                                                                                                   2008

                                                                                                                                                  2013

                                                                                                                                                                                2017
                                                                                                                                          2012
                                                           2003

                                                                                           2007
                                                    2002

        Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

        We believe that despite some slowdown in economic momentum, investors should look
        forward to decent returns from equities.

        Caution sets the stage for returns
        It is said that to make a bull market, you have to climb a wall of worry. Indian equities
        have been in the midst of a bull market for a while. We still don’t see unfettered optimism
        that would worry us. In fact entering 2019, we find investors getting cautious. This gives
        weight to our theory that the bull market still has legs.
        Cautions relating to the following, which we will examine in detail later in the text.
        Fears of a global economic recession
        Caution regarding evolution of Indian economy over the next two years
        Political uncertainty
        Concerns regarding interest rates and financial system
        We believe these are valid concerns, and while data indicates a slowdown ahead, we
        believe we are not on the cusp of a recession.
        Significantly the euphoria (“this time it is different”) that precedes a major downturn in
        equities is missing, in fact, caution abounds. We believe that caution going into 2019 is in
        contrast to the optimism at the beginning of 2018.

        Drivers for 2019
        In terms of drivers of equities for 2019, we believe the following are important questions
        which we will try to answer.

 8                                                                                           KARVY INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT 2019
Will FII inflows resume into Indian equities: 2018 witnessed net FII outflows of Rs. 335 bn
    (or USD 6.4 bn), this was the first year of outflows since 2008. The graph below shows
    that FII flows have a strong correlation with returns.

    Exhibit: FII Inflows and Nifty Returns
                 1500                                                                                                                                                  90%

                1000                                                                                                                                                   60%

                  500                                                                                                                                                  30%

                              0                                                                                                                                        0%

                 -500                                                                                                                                                  -30%

               -1000                                                                                                                                                   -60%

                                                                                                        2010
                                  2000

                                                                                                               2011
                                         2001

                                                                                                                                    2014
                                                              2004

                                                                                                                                           2015

                                                                                                                                                  2016

                                                                                                                                                                2018
                                                                     2005

                                                                            2006

                                                                                                 2009
                                                                                          2008

                                                                                                                             2013

                                                                                                                                                         2017
                                                                                                                      2012
                                                       2003

                                                                                   2007
                                                2002
                                                       FII Inflow (Rs. bn)- (LHS)                                            Nifty returns %- (RHS)

    Source: Bloomberg, SEBI, Karvy Research

    Besides global risk aversion, a number of elements can be the deciding factors for global
    assets allocation - firstly, last year the attraction of US assets was high, we believe this
    factor will wane going into 2019. In Q3 2018, S&P 500 earnings grew by 28%, for CY2018,
    the EPS growth estimate is 20%, this largely reflects the boost to earnings growth on
    account of tax cuts as well as better than expected financial performance. For CY2019,
    expected EPS growth estimate is 8%, for emerging markets, consensus EPS growth
    estimate is 7.4%. Indian earnings are expected to perform better, with EPS for Nifty
    expected to grow by 22% for FY2019-20.
    In the past 5 years, earnings growth has been disappointing, but we believe that factors
    are in place for a recovery in corporate earnings, which we will detail in a later section.
    This factor should make Indian equities more attractive.
    Currency is also an important factor; strengthening of the US dollar, largely as US assets
    were more attractive caused emerging market equities to decline. US Dollar is expected to
    weaken as we head into CY2019, with Futures indicating US Dollar Index to decline by 2%.
    This should be supportive of Indian equities. Rupee has a positive correlation with the
    equity market and the relationship is statistically significant. This implies that equities
    benefit when the Rupee appreciates and equity market outlook gets clouded when
    the Rupee depreciates. Currency is not the only factor that impacts markets but other
    factors too can outweigh the impact of the Rupee wherein during periods of turmoil in
    currency markets, the relationship can be more significant.

    Exhibit: Sensex returns vs Rupee
                                                                      20.00%
                                                                      15.00%
                                                                      10.00%
                                                                       5.00%
                  USD INR YoY %

                                                                       0.00%
                                                                      -5.00%
                                                                     -10.00%
                                                                     -15.00%
                                                                     -20.00%
                                                                     -25.00%
                 -100.0%                          -50.0%                    0.0%                      50.0%                            100.0%                      150.0%
                                                                                                 Sensex YoY %
    Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

9                                                                                         KARVY INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT 2019
We believe that while INR is still overvalued considering the Real Effective Exchange Rate
     despite having depreciated against the USD, this is largely as over the last five years where other
     currencies have depreciated more against the USD. We believe that excluding a significant rally
     in oil prices, there are few reasons for the INR to perform poorly against the USD.

     Exhibit: India Real Effective Exchange Rate
                 110

                 105

                 100

                  95

                  90

                  85

                  80

                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-10
                                          Jan-96

                                                                          Jan-99
                                                                                     Jan-00

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-11
                                                                Jan-98

                                                                                               Jan-01
                                                       Jan-97

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jan-14
                                                                                                                                Jan-04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jan-15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-16
                                                                                                                                           Jan-05

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jan-18
                                                                                                                                                     Jan-06

                                                                                                                                                                                       Jan-09
                                                                                                                                                                             Jan-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jan-13

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jan-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jan-12
                                                                                                                      Jan-03

                                                                                                                                                                Jan-07
                                                                                                         Jan-02
                       Jan-94
                                Jan-95

                                                                                              INR REER                                                                                                       Average

     Source: BIS, Karvy Research

     The one drag may be valuations which do reduce the attraction of Indian equities while
     growth and likely direction of currency movement makes Indian equities attractive. In
     our assessment, FII flows are likely to return to India. Also, India remains one of the few
     markets where growth is likely to hold up in 2019, making it more attractive.
     Can Domestic institutions counterweigh FIIs: FIIs have had a significantly higher impact
     on the direction of the market than domestic institutions, however, incrementally their
     influence on the markets has increased.

     Exhibit: FII vs DII inflows
                   1370
                                                                                   1,331

                   1060
                                                                                                                                1,293

                                                                                                                                                       1,113

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1,094
                   750
                                                                                                                                                                                974

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               908
                                                           843

                                                                                                                  278
                                                                   262
                                              717

                   440
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  676
                                                                                                                                                                                                         184

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               188

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      529
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      371

                    130

                   -180
                                                                                                        -37

                                                                                                                                          -569
                                     -568

                                                                                           -214

                                                                                                                                                                -735

                                                                                                                                                                                         -303

                  -490                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      -342

                  -800
                                     2008                   2009               2010     2011                                     2012                      2013                  2014     2015      2016                                               2017                  2018
                                                                           FII Inflow (Rs. bn)                                                                                      DII Inflow (Rs. bn)

     Source: Bloomberg, SEBI, Karvy Research

     Exhibit: Cumulative FII vs DII flows since 2007
                 8000
                 7000                                                                                           FII flows                                             Domestic flows
                 6000
                 5000
                 4000
                 3000
                 2000
                  1000
                       0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Sep-17
                                                                                                                                                  Sep-12
                                     Sep-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Nov-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Dec-18
                                                       Jul-08

                                                                                                                                                                    Jul-13
                                                                                                                      Jun-11
                                                                Dec-08

                                                                                                                                                                              Dec-13

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jan-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jun-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Apr-17
                                                                         May-09

                                                                                                                                         Apr-12
                            Apr-07

                                                                                           Mar-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                Oct-14

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Feb-18
                                              Feb-08

                                                                                                                                                           Feb-13
                                                                                                    Aug-10

                                                                                                                               Nov-11
                                                                                  Oct-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                         Mar-15
                                                                                                             Jan-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Aug-15
                                                                                                                                                                                       May-14

                 -1000

     Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

10                                                                                                                                 KARVY INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT 2019
We believe this represents a long term structural change, as capital market instruments
     represent a small part of savings for Indian households, but has increased in the last couple
     of years. Also, overall investment in equities by households is still low by international
     standards.

     Exhibit: Household financial savings invested in capital markets
                 12%

                 10%

                  8%

                  6%

                  4%

                  2%

                  0%
                        Jan-92
                                 Jan-93
                                          Jan-94
                                                   Jan-95
                                                            Jan-96
                                                                     Jan-97
                                                                              Jan-98
                                                                                       Jan-99
                                                                                                Jan-00
                                                                                                         Jan-01
                                                                                                                  Jan-02
                                                                                                                           Jan-03
                                                                                                                                    Jan-04
                                                                                                                                             Jan-05
                                                                                                                                                      Jan-06
                                                                                                                                                               Jan-07
                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-08
                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-09
                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jan-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jan-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jan-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jan-15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jan-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jan-17
                 -2%

     Source: RBI, Karvy Research

     Exhibit: Investment of savings of households in Equities
                 50%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         48%
                 40%                                                                                                                                                                                    44%

                                                                                                                                                                        37%
                 30%

                 20%
                                                                                                                                      20%
                 10%                                                                                 15%
                                                                     10%
                                    6%
                  0%
                                  India                              UK                           Japan                             Korea                       Singapore                                   US                   Hong Kong

     Source: RBI, Karvy Research

     India is witnessing a significant demographic shift, where the dependency ratio (proportion
     of working age population to total population) has not only become favourable, but the
     trend is expected to continue for more than a couple of decades. Thus, we believe that
     domestic institutions as well as direct investment in equities are rising representing a
     structural change.

     Exhibit: Working age population (%)
                 55%

                 53%

                 51%

                 49%

                 47%

                 45%
                             2015                   2020                      2025                 2030                    2035                 2040                    2045                   2050                   2055                      2060
                                                                                         India                                                                                        World

     Source: World Bank, Karvy Research

11                                                                                                                   KARVY INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT 2019
In the short term, high volatility in equities may be a dampener, and inflows to equities
     from domestic investors may suffer. Nevertheless, this makes Indian equities less reliant
     on FII. In fact we believe this is the reason why Indian equities have been resilient in 2018,
     outperforming peers.

     Exhibit: Performance of Indian equities vs peers (in USD)
                180

                160

                140

                120

                100
                                                                 Relative to EM                                                                                                                                     Relative to AP x JP
                                                                 Relative to EM Asia                                                                                                                                Relative to AC World
                 80

                                                                                                                                                     Feb-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Feb-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Feb-17
                                                                                        Nov-14
                                                                         Aug-14

                                                                                                                                          Nov-15

                                                                                                                                                                                             Nov-16
                                                                                                                           Aug-15

                                                                                                                                                                                 Aug-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Nov-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Aug-18
                                    Nov-13
                       Aug-13

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Nov-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Aug-17
                                                             May-14

                                                                                                              May-15
                                                  Feb-14

                                                                                                                                                                  May-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             May-18
                                                                                                   Feb-15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      May-17
     Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

     Will high valuations be a drag: Indian equities are trading at high valuation levels by
     historical standards, currently at 19.4x 12 month forward PE ratio. This is high and is the
     one factor that worries us.

     Exhibit: 12 month forward PER of Sensex
                24

                20

                 16

                 12

                  8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jun-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jun-18
                                         Jun-06

                                                                                                   Jun-09
                                                                               Jun-08

                                                                                                                                                                                    Jun-13

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jun-17
                                                                                                                                                               Jun-12
                                                            Jun-07

                                                                                                                                 Dec-10

                                                                                                                                                     Dec-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Dec-14

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Dec-15
                                                                                                                       Jun-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Dec-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Dec-18
                                Dec-05

                                                   Dec-06

                                                                                                             Dec-09

                                                                                                                                           Jun-11
                                                                                          Dec-08

                                                                                                                                                                                              Dec-13

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Dec-17
                                                                                                                                                                         Dec-12
                                                                      Dec-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jun-14

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jun-15
                      Jun-05

                                                     12 Month forward PER                                                                               Average                                                              -1 SD                                                     +1 SD

     Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

     India has traded at a premium to peers, and continues to do so. Valuations have a
     significant impact on returns as can be seen by this graph.

     Exhibit: 12 month forward PER of Sensex vs subsequent performance
                24                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       -100%

                20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         -50%
                 16

                 12                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0%

                  8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         50%
                 4

                 0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       100%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov-16
                                                   Nov-06

                                                                                                            Nov-09
                                                                                          Nov-08

                                                                                                                                                                                             Nov-13

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Nov-17
                                                                                                                                                                        Nov-12
                                                                      Nov-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  May-16
                                         May-06

                                                                                                   May-09
                                                                               May-08

                                                                                                                                                                                  May-13

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    May-17
                                                                                                                                                              May-12
                                                            May-07

                                                                                                                                Nov-10

                                                                                                                                                    Nov-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Nov-14

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Nov-15
                                Nov-05

                                                                                                                      May-10

                                                                                                                                          May-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                       May-14

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            May-15
                      May-05

                                          12 month forward PER (LHS)                                                                                One year subsequent return % (RHS) (Inverted scale)

     Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

12                                                                                                                                        KARVY INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT 2019
However, there are a few mitigating factors which may help overcome the negative
     forces on account of valuation:
     yy Low bond yields in India implies higher valuation multiples. These may persist on
        account of increased financial savings of Indian households, fiscal consolidation,
        lower inflation than historical trend and increased FII flows to debt market on account
        of high real interest rates in India
     yy Earnings cycle - we believe that after a number of years of disappointing growth,
        corporate earnings are in the early stages of a recovery
     Also, the premium to emerging markets is a bit higher than the past but Indian markets
     are at a significant premium to Asia Pacific excl Japan.

     Exhibit: 12 month forward PER of MSCI India vs Emerging markets
                 2.2
                2.0
                 1.8
                 1.6
                 1.4
                 1.2
                 1.0
                0.8

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jun-17
                                                                                                                                                  Jun-12
                                  Jun-07

                                                                          Feb-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Sep-18
                                                                Sep-08

                                                                                                                                                                             Sep-13
                                                                                                                                Aug-11

                                                                                                                                                                                               Jul-14

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Dec-14
                                                                                   Jul-09
                                                                                            Dec-09
                                                                                                     May-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Aug-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Nov-17
                                                                                                                                                           Nov-12
                                            Nov-07

                                                                                                              Oct-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jan-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Apr-18
                                                                                                                                         Jan-12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 May-15
                                                                                                                                                                                      Feb-14
                        Jan-07

                                                      Apr-08

                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-13
                                                                                                                       Mar-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Oct-15
                                                                                              India relative to EM                                                                                                        Average

     Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

     Exhibit: 12 month forward PER of MSCI India vs Asia Pacific ex Japan
                 2.0

                  1.8

                  1.6

                 1.4

                  1.2

                 1.0

                 0.8

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Sep-18
                                                                 Sep-08

                                                                                                                                                                                Sep-13
                                                                                     Jul-09
                                                                                              Dec-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Aug-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov-17
                                                                                                                                                             Nov-12
                                             Nov-07

                                                                                                                Oct-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jan-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-18
                                                                                                                                           Jan-12

                                                                                                                                                                                         Feb-14
                         Jan-07

                                                       Apr-08

                                                                                                                                                                       Apr-13

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jun-17
                                                                                                                                                    Jun-12
                                   Jun-07

                                                                                                                         Mar-11
                                                                           Feb-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Oct-15
                                                                                                                                  Aug-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jul-14

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mar-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Dec-14
                                                                                                       May-10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    May-15

                                                                                        India relative to AP x JP                                                                                                             Average

     Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

     Exhibit: 12 month forward PER
                            2018 performance (%)                                                                                   Now                                                   Beginning of 2018                                                                 Recent peak

     EM                                                (16.6)                                                                        11.3                                                                    12.7                                                                        13.6

     USA                                                (6.2)                                                                       15.4                                                                     18.3                                                                        18.7

     India                                                3.2                                                                       19.6                                                                         21                                                                      22

     Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

13                                                                                                                                         KARVY INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT 2019
Elections- the next trigger for equities: In our report “Elections: the next trigger for equities”
     we have highlighted that for Indian asset markets, the major trigger will be the upcoming
     General Elections. We expect some nervousness in markets ahead of the elections. We
     wouldn’t extrapolate the results to General Elections as the Indian electorate can vote
     differently in State Elections and General Elections. We believe markets will welcome
     continuity in the form of a NDA (led by BJP) regaining power at the centre.
     Though it is still early, opinion polls (which also indicated a loss for BJP in State Elections)
     indicate that NDA (led by BJP) is likely to regain power with a reduced number of seats.
     This scenario would be welcomed by markets.
     If this were to be the outcome of the elections, we would expect an acceleration in
     economic reforms. Also infra spending by the government is likely to pick up.

     Exhibit: Sensex - General Elections
      Elections Year (%)       6 M before   Zero Day      + 1 Week   6 M after    6 M Prior to 6 M later

             1996                  20.8       0.7           (3.6)      (17.3)             (0.1)

             1998                  (8.0)      2.7           (0.6)      (19.6)             (24.3)

             1999                   31.9      (0.2)          7.1       (1.9)              36.3

             2004                   8.3       0.8           (8.7)      17.6               20.5

             2009                  29.7       17.3          (2.6)       19.1               81.5

             2014                   17.2      0.9           2.4         15.1              37.5

     Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

     Exhibit: MSCI India relative to EM - General Elections
       Elections Year          6 M before   Zero Day      + 1 Week   6 M after    6 M Prior to 6 M later

             1996                   4.2        1.1          (3.9)      (15.7)             (12.9)

             1998                   5.9        2.7          (3.9)      24.2                33.5

             1999                   18.5      (1.0)          6.1        (1.7)              20.1

             2004                   4.7        2.1          (7.6)      (0.8)               0.6

             2009                  (1.6)      18.1          (3.4)      (3.4)               8.9

             2014                  19.0       0.6            2.8        13.2               37.6

     Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

     Earnings pickup: Earnings have grown at 4% from FY2013-14 to FY2017-18, and have been
     the missing puzzle for Indian equities. The reason we believe is quite simple - it is on
     account of lack of capex. This may be about to change, as we describe later in the Indian
     economic update.
     This should help in the recovery of corporate earnings, especially in sectors that are
     geared for capex - namely capital goods and banks.

14                                                     KARVY INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT 2019
SECTOR
OUTLOOK
      AUTOMOBILES
      The auto industry is nearing the next down cycle. However, as the industry is shifting
      towards improvisation in technology and comfort, we think that there is more scope for
      expansion. The major push is expected to come from higher infra spending both in rural
      and urban areas. With major OEMs investing in capacity addition, product development
      via new launches among various automotive segments indicate that demand is still
      around. We expect buying to increase after elections and just before BS VI norms are
      implemented. Also, better execution of Minimum Support Prices will act as a catalyst
      for rural demand pick up. Among all categories of vehicles, Commercial Vehicles
      (CV) reported 31% YoY growth during YTD FY19 owing to higher industrial activity and
      3-wheeler sales grew by 25% YoY followed by 10% growth in 2-wheeler due to higher
      personal consumption. On the flip side, passenger vehicles reported 5% growth lower
      than the average 2-year growth of 8.5%. This is due to delayed festive demand and
      increase in car prices.
      Implementation of BS VI: Post 2020, only BS VI complaint vehicles can be sold in the
      market. Many OEMs have already introduced such models. With this, the price difference
      between petrol and diesel variants will increase. Currently, the price difference between
      petrol and diesel vehicles could be between Rs. 1 Lakh and Rs. 1.5 Lakh. Post BS VI, diesel
      vehicles may cost Rs. 2 to 2.5 Lakh more than that of petrol vehicles. MSIL (Maruti Suzuki
      India ltd) is manufacturing both Euro-V and Euro-VI (BS V & BS VI) variants and to be BS VI
      compliant, certain components like Diesel Particular Filter, Selective Catalytic Reduction
      need to be added because of which the overall cost of the vehicle is expected to go up.
      With this, we think that the demand for diesel cars may slow down and as an indication
      to this, Maruti Suzuki is expected to re-organize its diesel engine assembly plant in
      Gurugram.
      The future of electric vehicles: In the electric vehicle space, we are still at the initial phase
      of development where the country requires capital investment for battery charging
      infrastructure and streamline procurement of lithium ion. Dominant OEMs such as TATA
      Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra have already introduced electric vehicles and even MSIL is
      pacing faster by setting up its own lithium ion factory in Gujarat. Therefore, incentivising
      hybrid and electric vehicles could be the need of the hour if they are to be promoted
      faster. We think that there is more to happen in the EV segment in terms of innovation
      and design.
      Effect on Auto Ancillary businesses as electric vehicles increase: Most of the car ancillaries
      will continue to exist except for certain engine components (though there is a lot of
      time for that to happen). Furthermore, as safety regulations are being implemented,
      demand for sensors, airbags, IoT (controllers), clusters, etc. may subsequently increase
      as components per vehicle go up. At this onset, most auto ancillary companies have
      technological collaboration with global makers for technical expertise. We think that
      ancillaries with high product diversification especially in the new-gen technology will
      benefit largely from this shift.

15                                                KARVY INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT 2019
CAPITAL GOODS & INFRASTRUCTURE
     Q2FY19 has been a real surprise for the investors with ~19% earnings growth in capital
     goods index aided by some positive performances from L&T, BEL and Graphite India.
     Post the earnings season, profits for CG index is revised upwards by ~3.4% for FY19E
     and 1.0% for FY20E in view of reviving optimism in the sector. Companies like L&T,
     Siemens, ABB, Kalpataru have reported a strong growth in order book. Further to add,
     recent management commentary signaled a sense of positivity in near to medium term
     aided by multiple government initiatives providing the necessary levers for sustained
     growth. Industry is also of the positive view about the outlook for domestic sales as
     underlying demand remains positive due to investments by the government in creating
     infrastructure.
     Of late, the sector witnessed a sluggish performance due to high interest cost, land
     acquisition issues, over capacity in certain segments like power generation; however, it is
     showing signs of recovery. Gross fixed capital formation in terms of GDP at Q2 of 2018-
     19 was estimated at 32.3% compared to 30.8% in Q2 2017-18. The investment by both
     government and private sector has picked up as new projects have been announced.
     The industry capacity utilisation has increased to 73.8% in Q1FY19 from 71.2% in Q1FY18.
     The IIP-based capital goods index was strong during the April-October period at 8.7%
     compared to 0.7% in the corresponding period of previous financial year indicating a
     decent performance in FY19 & 20.
     On construction front, while the government has been taking efforts ranging from
     increased budgetary allocations to higher road project awarding, funding has been an
     issue. Of the 64 HAM projects awarded till now in 2018, around 30 projects have not
     achieved financial closure yet. Among the ones that received FC, some projects have
     exceeded the stipulated time line of 5 months to achieve FC indicating the issues from
     bank’s perspective. The pace of road construction also slowed down in H1FY19 as issues
     related to land acquisition cropped up. Under HAM, bank funding is available once 80% of
     land is acquired. Further to add to the woes, existing developers have their hands full with
     significant orders indicating a lower participation in new orders. However, we expect the
     execution levels to maintain the current momentum.
     In our view, an improving business cycle should bode well for the capital goods sector.
     Though stable government at centre post elections is likely to boost the capital cycle,
     firm oil prices and continued liquidity crunch may pose risk in near to medium term.

     METALS AND MINING
     The demand and supply of metals and mining are directly linked to the health of economies.
     A growing economy requires them to stimulate industrial, construction and agriculture
     sectors. However, metals and mining, being global commodities, the performance of an
     individual economy (unless it is China which is believed to be the largest consumer and
     producer of metals and mining) will hardly have an impact as it is the performance of
     global economies especially economies producing and consuming them the most which
     will drive demand and supply of these metals. In the latest World Economic Outlook, the
     IMF said that India would grow at 7.3% in FY19E and 7.4% in FY20E. At the global level, the
     growth will be at FY17 level of 3.7%. China is forecasted to grow at 6.2% in FY19E.

16                                            KARVY INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT 2019
India produces 95 minerals - 4 fuel-related minerals, 10 metallic minerals, 23 non-metallic
     minerals, 3 atomic minerals and 55 minor minerals (including building and other minerals).
     The government of India has taken initiatives as provided below to give a big push to
     metals and mining sector;
     yy Under the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act of 1957, FDI upto
        100% under automatic route is allowed for the mining and exploration of metal and
        non- metal ores including diamond, gold, silver and precious ores, while FDI upto 100%
        under government route is allowed for mining and mineral separation of titanium
        bearing minerals and its ores.
     yy FDI caps in the mining and exploration of metal and non-metal ores have been
        increased to 100 per cent under the automatic route.
     yy The Government of India aims at raising its steel production capacity to 300 million
        tonnes (MT) by 2030-31.
     Infrastructure projects across all sectors ranging from road, airports, shipping, power,
     logistics and telecom continue to provide lucrative business opportunities for steel. Steel
     consumption for housing construction is also likely to rise due to the “Housing For All”
     initiative which aims to build around 12 million units in urban areas over next three years
     and 10 million units in rural areas by 2019. Rise in infrastructural activities will give rise
     for demand of minerals like, coking coal, iron ore, manganese ore, zinc, aluminium, etc.
     Aluminium production is forecasted to grow to 3.33 million metric tonnes by FY20.
     Domestic automobiles sales increased at 7.01% CAGR between FY13-18 with 24.97 million
     vehicles sold in FY18. The passenger vehicle sales in India crossed 3.2 million units in FY18
     and is further expected increase to 10 million units by FY20. The country’s key strengths
     such as a large domestic consumption base, a cost competitive value chain (that includes
     low design, testing and validation costs, frugal engineering capabilities and low labor
     costs) and strategic geographical location shall help in developing the country as a world
     class automotive manufacturing base. Also, higher manufacturing of auto grade steel
     shall help in import substitution, pushing demand for domestic steel.
     The rise in production of electric vehicles (EVs) could lead to significant changes for
     the mining industry, as demand for minerals such as lithium, cobalt, manganese ore
     and nickel, used in the production of EVs rises. According to Statista, global demand
     for lithium stands at 252,653 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2018, but this will
     increase to 422,614 tonnes by 2025, as the metal is a key component in batteries that
     power electric vehicles.
     There is significant scope for new mining capacities in iron ore, bauxite and coal as there
     are considerable opportunities for future discoveries of sub- surface deposits.
     On the supply side, elevated prices, lower imports (mainly in the US and Europe) and
     increased supply from China may prove to be troublesome to metals and mining sector.
     In the current scenario, where steel demand is slowing down in China and exports to the
     US are restricted, Chinese exports may seek to re-enter a growing Indian market directly
     or indirectly. Uncertainty about the impact of lingering US and China trade tensions, rising
     interest rates, and the relative strength of the US dollar will influence future prices. India
     has real fear of turning into a dumping ground for imported steel from South Korea and
     Japan with whom it has Free Trade Agreement as a consequence of the US imposition of
     25% duty. The government of India on its part, having introduced Minimum Import Price,
     priority in domestic steel procurement and other such measures are expected to protect
     the interest of domestic manufacturers.

17                                             KARVY INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT 2019
IT SECTOR
     Growth momentum to continue
     During 2018, BSE IT index returned 25% versus 2% returned by Nifty. We believe that this
     outperformance was driven by a) favourable USDINR movement – a fall of nearly 10% YTD
     (Rs. 63.7 to Rs. 70 and INR touched an all-time low of Rs. 74.4) b) announcement of large
     deal wins by big IT companies c) revival of BFSI in the US and positive commentary on
     client spending d) better valuation on a relative basis and e) many large institutions were
     underweight in the sector at the beginning of the year. However, we believe that in 2019,
     IT index may not outperform broader index on such a magnitude. We believe that at best
     it can mimic the performance by broader indices.
     In 2018, IT companies’ growth was driven by a combination of USDINR and in case of
     some companies like HCLT and TCS, due to ramping up of large deals announced in
     the past. In 2019, we believe USDINR will remain stable. We don’t expect INR to make
     fresh lows as was the case during 2018. Hence, we don’t expect USDINR to contribute
     in a big way to IT companies’ growth. However, in 2019 growth is going to be driven by
     ramping up of large deals announced during H1 FY19. TCS announced large deals worth
     $5 billion between Jan 2018 and September 2018. HCLT announced 5 large deals. Wipro
     announced its largest ever deal worth $1.5 bn with Alight HR Services India. Commentary
     from Infy and TechM was encouraging.
     However, we believe that IT services companies would find it hard to get hold of the
     talent they require, specifically in the areas of new technologies like Artificial Intelligence
     (AI) and Machine Learning (ML). Accenture in its Q1FY19 concall has highlighted that it
     is becoming difficult to find the right talent in these new age technologies. Similarly,
     Infosys indicated that it is looking to invest for a partial stake or buyout firms with the
     right talent pool in the areas of newer technologies as it is finding it hard to recruit talent
     with capabilities in the new technologies like AI and ML.

18                                              KARVY INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT 2019
INDIAN ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK
       The sharp rise in oil prices which had raised concerns about widening trade deficit and
       the need for preemptive rate hikes due to INR depreciation has quite settled for now.
       However, the stress still remains on the fiscal front owing to the upcoming elections.
       Also, sluggish export growth signals a caution to the current account position.
       During Q2FY19, the Indian economy grew at 7.1% vs. the consensus estimate of 7.4%.
       During Q1FY19, GDP grew at 8.2% YoY. This indicates growth is on track to roughly meet
       the RBI estimate of 7.4% growth for the entire fiscal year considering that November saw
       activity in manufacturing and services sector pick up. The Gross Fixed Capital Formation
       (GFCF) increased by 12.5% YoY during Q2FY19 as compared to 6.1% during Q2FY18.
       We expect capex spending to lead growth on the back of higher capacity utilisation
       which recorded 73.8% in Q1FY19 vs. 71.2% in Q1FY18. Bank credit growth accelerated
       in September 2018 where private sector banks recorded more than 20% growth. The
       credit-deposit (C-D) ratio at the all-India level improved to 76.4% in September 2018
       as compared to 75.6% in the previous quarter. Therefore, we expect this GDP growth
       momentum to keep pace on the back of higher personal consumption indicated by
       increasing bank credit. Risks to the outlook are largely on account of external sector, the
       lagged impact of currency depreciation and uncertain political outlook.

        Exhibit: GDP Growth YoY (%)
                    15

                    12

                     9

                     6

                     3

                     0
                                                                                                                    Dec-…
                                                    Sep-00

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Sep-18
                                                                                                                             Sep-06

                                                                                                                                                                  Sep-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Sep-12
                                                                                        Sep-03

                                                                                                                                                                           Jun-10
                         Jun-98

                                                                                                                                                        Dec-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Dec-17
                                                             Jun-01

                                                                               Dec-02

                                                                                                  Jun-04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jun-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jun-13
                                  Mar-99

                                                                                                                                      Jun-07

                                                                                                                                                                                    Mar-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sep-15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mar-14
                                           Dec-99

                                                                                                                                                                                             Dec-11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-14
                                                                                                           Mar-05

                                                                                                                                               Mar-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar-17
                                                                      Mar-02

        Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

        Exhibit: Capacity utilisation (%)
                    76%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        74%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               73%
                    74%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               73%
                    72%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               72%
                                                        71.9%

                                                                           74.0%

                                                                                                                    72.0%

                                                                                                                                                         74.6%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      75.2%

                    70%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            73.8%
                                                                                                 72.9%

                                                                                                                                      71.0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   74.1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                71.8%
                                      71.2%

                                                                                                                                                                             71.2%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               72%

                    68%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        71%
                                      Q2FY16

                                                                                                                                                                                                Q2FY18
                                                        Q3FY16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Q3FY18
                                                                                                                    Q2FY17

                                                                                                                                      Q3FY17
                                                                           Q4FY16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Q4FY18
                                                                                                                                                         Q4FY17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Q1FY19
                                                                                                                                                                             Q1FY18
                                                                                                 Q1FY17

                                                                                 Capacity Utilization                                                                                                 4-quarter average

        Source: RBI, Karvy Research

19                                                                                                                                    KARVY INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT 2019
Exhibit: IIP and 3M Moving Avg
                10

                  8

                  6

                 4

                  2

                 0

                                                                                                                         Jun-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jun-18
                                                                                                                                                                               Jun-17
                                                                                                       Feb-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Feb-18
                                                                                                                                                             Feb-17
                                                                                                                                           Oct-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Oct-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-17
                                        Dec-14
                      Aug-14

                                                                                              Dec-15

                                                                                                                                                    Dec-16
                                                                            Aug-15

                                                                                                                                  Aug-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Aug-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Dec-17
                                                                                                                                                                                        Aug-17
                                                          Apr-15

                                                                                                                Apr-16
                                                                   Jun-15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Apr-18
                                                                                                                                                                      Apr-17
                                                 Feb-15
                               Oct-14

                                                                                     Oct-15
                -2

                                                                                IIP (%)                                                                           3M Moving Avg IIP (%)

     Source: MOSPI, Karvy Research

     With escalating US-China trade tensions, the World Trade Organization (WTO) expects
     global trade growth to slowdown which is likely to dampen oil prices yet be maintained
     due to the intervention of the OPEC. If oil prices remain at bay, Indian economy will
     certainly benefit as the subsidy burden could be minimized.
     With New RBI Governor comes a new mandate: After Mr. Urjit Patel resigned citing
     personal reasons, Mr. Shaktikanta Das has been appointed as the 25th RBI Governor.
     While the rest of the Monetary Policy Committee remains unchanged, change in
     leadership means a change in stance to “neutral” from “calibrated tightening” cannot
     be ruled out. Also the RBI is likely to focus on liquidity and resolving PSU bank issues.
     We believe this indicates that the RBI may keep repo rates unchanged for a couple of
     quarters. While outlook for inflation has softened (RBI projects 3.8-4.2% in H1FY2019-20,
     but with an upward bias), with crude oil prices declining to USD 61 per barrel and food
     deflating. However, a reversal in food deflation is a risk to inflation outlook, given that
     core inflation is at ~5.7%; thus, the probability of cut in policy rate is low.
     The lower inflation projection largely reflects low food inflation as well as lower oil prices.
     However, we believe that the inflation risks are still on the horizon, core inflation (CPI
     inflation after stripping out food and energy) remains sticky at 6.2% in October 2018.
     Inflationary risks cannot be neglected when capacity utilisation is rising, coming in at
     76.1% for Q2FY2018-19, PMI for November was 54 a 11-month high. Robust growth and a
     closing output gap further increases inflationary risks.

     Exhibit: CPI and Core CPI
                10.0

                 7.5

                 5.0

                 2.5

                 0.0
                        May-14

                        May-15

                        May-16

                        May-17

                        May-18
                         Jul-14

                         Jul-15

                         Jul-16

                         Jul-17

                         Jul-18
                        Mar-14

                        Mar-15

                        Mar-16

                        Mar-17

                        Mar-18
                        Sep-14
                        Nov-14

                        Sep-15
                        Nov-15

                        Sep-16
                        Nov-16

                        Sep-17
                        Nov-17

                        Sep-18
                        Nov-18
                        Jan-14

                        Jan-15

                        Jan-16

                        Jan-17

                        Jan-18

                                                                                     CPI (%)                                                                                   Core CPI (%)
     Source: MOSPI, Karvy Research

20                                                                                                                       KARVY INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT 2019
RBI to continue to inject liquidity through OMO Purchases: The total injection of durable
     liquidity for the month of December 2018 will be Rs. 500 bn. Going forward, RBI has
     decided to conduct purchase of Government Securities under Open Market Operations
     (OMOs) for an aggregate amount of Rs. 500 bn in the month of January 2019. The
     operations will be conducted through five auctions of Rs. 100 bn each.
     The exact calibration of the quantum of OMO would depend on sustained changes in
     the behavior of currency in circulation, the magnitude of sterilization operations for RBI’s
     forex operations and other relevant factors.
     Credit growth of SCBs improved by 13% YoY in September 2018 driven primarily by
     private sector banks which grew at 22.5% YoY. The asset quality of banks improved as
     the GNPA ratio of SCBs (Scheduled Commercial Banks) decreased from 11.5% in March
     2018 to 10.8% in September 2018. Going forward, the RBI expects this to continue and
     estimates GNPA ratio of SCBs to further decline to 10.3% in March 2019. The stressed
     advances ratio is gradually converging to the GNPA ratio following the withdrawal of
     various restructuring schemes. Therefore, increasing credit growth coupled with
     declining provision ratio is expected to lead to higher economic growth.

21                                            KARVY INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT 2019
THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK
                                   Near inversion of the US yield curve as well as a sharp 19% decline from all time high for
                                   the S&P 500 has heightened fears of a recession These fears are not restricted to the US
                                   alone, data indicates that Chinese growth may be slowing down significantly and Japan
                                   & Europe (especially Germany) are also showing signs of fatigue.

                                        Exhibit: US yield curve (10 year yield - 2 year yield)
                                                     4.0

                                                     3.0                                                                                                                                                 19 bps
                                                     2.0

                                                     1.0

                                                     0.0

                                                    -1.0

                                                    -2.0

                                                    -3.0
                                                           1976

                                                                                                                                                                                    2010
                                                                  1978

                                                                                                                                                 2000
                                                                                              1986

                                                                                                     1988

                                                                                                                                  1996

                                                                                                                                          1998

                                                                                                                                                                                                  2014
                                                                                1982

                                                                                                                    1992

                                                                                                                                                               2004

                                                                                                                                                                                                         2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                                2018
                                                                                                                                                                      2006

                                                                                                                                                                             2008

                                                                                                                                                                                           2012
                                                                                                                                                        2002
                                                                         1980

                                                                                                             1990
                                                                                       1984

                                                                                                                           1994
                                    Source: Bloomberg, Karvy Research

                                   According to the NBER, the longest business cycle expansion in the US lasted for 120
                                   months starting from March 1991 to March 2001. The current cycle, the second longest
                                   expansion in history began in June 2009 and questions about how long the business
                                   cycle expansion will last are natural.

Exhibit: US post World War II Economic Cycle
        Peak                   Trough        Peak month             Trough month               Duration, peak                  Duration,                   Duration, peak to                  Duration, trough
        month                  month           number                  number                    to trough                  trough to peak                       peak                            to trough

        Feb-45                 Oct-45            1742                       1750                            8                            80                            93                                 88

        Nov-48                 Oct-49            1787                       1798                            11                           37                            45                                 48

         Jul-53                May-54            1843                       1853                            10                           45                            56                                 55

        Aug-57                 Apr-58            1892                      1900                             8                            39                            49                                 47

        Apr-60                 Feb-61            1924                       1934                            10                           24                            32                                 34

        Dec-69                 Nov-70            2040                       2051                            11                           106                           116                                117

        Nov-73                 Mar-75            2087                       2103                            16                           36                            47                                 52

        Jan-80                 Jul-80            2161                       2167                            6                            58                            74                                 64

         Jul-81                Nov-82            2179                       2195                            16                           12                             18                                28

         Jul-90                Mar-91            2287                       2295                            8                            92                           108                                100

        Mar-01                 Nov-01            2415                       2423                            8                            120                           128                                128

        Dec-07                 Jun-09            2496                       2514                            18                           73                             81                                91

1945-2009 (11 cycles)                                                                                       11                           58                            69                                 70

Source: NBER, Karvy Research

  22                                                                                                                KARVY INVESTMENT STRATEGY REPORT 2019
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