Angola Rise of a new African superpower?

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Angola Rise of a new African superpower?
FOCUS   ANGOLA

Angola
Rise of a new
African superpower?

48                    African Business | June 2012
Angola Rise of a new African superpower?
The Angolan economy is replete
                                with contrasts: on the one hand,                  Angola
                                with its treasure trove of natural                Area                  1,246,700 square km
                                resources, the country has                        Geographical          Bordered by the Atlantic
                                been registering record levels                    features              Ocean, Namibia, the
                                of growth; on the other hand,                                           DRC, the Republic of
                                it remains one of the poorest                                           Congo and Zambia.
                                countries in Africa. While its                                          Angola’s most important
                                main cities sprout skyscrapers                                          river is the Cuanza, from
                                                                                                        which the country’s
                                seemingly by the week and real
                                                                                                        currency derives its name
                                estate prices are some of the
                                                                                  Capital               Luanda
                                highest in the world, the cost of
                                living for most of the population                 Population            19.6m
                                is astronomical. Perhaps Angola’s                 System of             Presidential republic,
                                hitherto lopsided development                     government            multiparty democracy.
                                reflects the long and destructive                                       The National Assembly
                                                                                                        (Assembleia Nacional)
                                years of the civil war. With peace                                      has 220 members, elected
                                now firmly entrenched, Angola                                           for a four-year term.
                                is making up for lost time with
                                                                                  President             President José Eduardo
                                vast infrastructural projects and                                       dos Santos, Head of State
                                a strong attempt to diversify                                           and Head of Government
                                the economy. It has become a                                            since 1979
                                magnet for investors from all                     GDP                   $115.9bn (2011)
                                corners of the world, with China                  GDP                   per capita $5,900
                                leading the charge. Will Angola
                                                                                  Industry              (% of GDP) 65.8%
                                be able to punch at its correct
                                weight and stand among the                        Services              (% of GDP) 24.6%
                                continent’s economic giants as its                Agriculture           (% of GDP) 9.6%
                                vast natural resources suggest it                 Oil and oil-related   80% of GDP
                                should?                                           activities
                                                                                  Diamonds              5% of GDP
                                                                                  Inward FDI            13.8% of GDP
                                                                                  GDP growth 2010       1.7%

                                Angola’s
                                                                                  GDP growth 2011       7.9%
                                                                                  Expected GDP          10.5%

                                economic                                          growth 2012
                                                                                  Agriculture:          Bananas, sugar cane,

                                contradiction                                     Produce               coffee, sisal, corn,
                                                                                                        cotton, cassava (manioc),
                                                                                                        tobacco, vegetables,

                                O
                                                                                                        plantains; livestock;
                                           n paper, Angola’s potential is glar-                         forest products; fish
                                           ing. In 2008, the country startled     Industries:           Petroleum; diamonds,
                                           many when it temporarily overtook                            iron ore, phosphates,
                                           Nigeria as Africa’s biggest oil pro-                         feldspar, bauxite,
                                ducer. Its GDP, which is estimated to grow                              uranium, and gold;
                                by around 11% this year, has been in double                             cement; basic metal
                                figures for several years over the last decade.                         products; fish processing;
                                   Angola’s demographics are also impres-                               food processing, brewing,
                                sive: its population flirts with the 20m mark                           tobacco products, sugar;
                                and, for Africa, it is strikingly urbanised –                           textiles; ship repair
                                nearly 60% of the country’s citizens live in      Projected             $122.5bn
                                towns and cities. Its oil sector is booming       GDP 2012

African Business | June 2012                                                                                                   49
Angola Rise of a new African superpower?
FOCUS                                             ANGOLA

and interest in its diamond-mining potential
is reported to have reached record-breaking
levels. Infrastructure development projects
have also been thriving, with roads, bridges
and railways being revamped at a breakneck
speed. And, unsurprisingly, foreign interest
in Angola with respect to all these sectors is
intensifying.
   “The outlook is very bright for Angola: we
anticipate double-digit economic growth
over the next few years, thanks largely to a
number of sizeable oil projects which will
be coming online,” says Lisa Lewin, head
of sub-Saharan Africa Analysis at Business
Monitor International (BMI), capturing the
mood well.
   “However, there are several other factors
which should also prove growth-supportive:
investment from international oil companies
into Angola’s sub-salt resources, various
infrastructural development programmes,
and increased government spending in the
run-up to elections,” she adds.

                                                             10%
    Yet Angola’s economic progress is precari-
ous and it remains one of the world’s poor-
est countries. “Despite the rapid headline
growth rates, poverty remains widespread,
with around two thirds of the population
living on less than $2 a day, and the gap be-
tween rich and poor has been growing,” says
Lewin of BMI.
    Indeed, the World Bank’s last poverty                Economists have projected around
head-count ratio for the country found that              10% GDP growth for Angola this year,
nearly 55% of the population live on less than         due to the hike in Angola’s exports of its
$1.25 a day. And around two thirds, as men-                 most lucrative natural resource: oil
tioned above, live on less than $2 a day. The
richest fifth of the population hold almost
two thirds of the country’s total wealth.          the government is still engaged in a daunting
    Life expectancy is depressingly low, at        struggle to reintegrate them properly back
51 years, and Angola has one of the world’s        into society. In some ways, the zeal with
highest infant mortality rates. Accusations        which Angola has bounced back since the
of corruption are frequently levelled at the       conflict has been remarkable. In other ways,
country’s government, headed by the long-          there have been some serious rehabilitation
standing President dos Santos.                     failures.
    Angola is also a recovering economy.              This all makes economic analysis of the
Its infrastructure, production and labour          country tricky. Both chimerical optimism,
pool were left annihilated by a civil war that     infused with utopian visions of Angola stand-
racked the country for more than 20 years,         ing alongside South Africa and Nigeria as a
and only came to an end in 2002. It is difficult   potential African superpower, and gloomy
to exaggerate the effects the war has had on       despondency that Angola is yet another Afri-     President dos Santos (above) heads a recovering
the economy. It led to 1.5m deaths and left        can country doomed to be defined by poverty      economy. Infrastructure development includes
                                                                                                    roads and a Luanda construction boom.
over 4m citizens internally displaced.             and corruption are tempting depending on
    Agricultural production, oil extraction        what figures are invoked.
and gold mining virtually ground to a halt.           In the end, the most informed opinions
Infrastructure was destroyed. A generation of      will draw on observations and assertions
Angolans have missed out on education and          from both camps.

50                                                                                                                    African Business | June 2012
Angola Rise of a new African superpower?
most lucrative natural resource: oil. The gov-    former Portuguese colony, Brazil, is also one
                                                 ernment has invested heavily in oil explora-      to watch. In the last six years, the country has
                                                 tion and infrastructure to boost production       extended $3bn of credit lines to Angola, and
                                                 and capacity. Its enthusiasm is now paying        the activities of Brazilian construction firm,
                                                 dividends: Oil accounts for 90% of export         Odebrecht, in the country are intensifying.
                                                 revenues and 80% of government revenues.              Yet, the drawbacks of the country’s reli-
                                                 Moreover, Angola is anticipated to rev up its     ance on revenue from oil exports became
                                                 oil output in coming years, through further       clear during the global crisis of 2008–2009,
                                                 expansion of operations in both onshore and       when slowing demand from oil-consuming
                                                 offshore facilities.                              countries caused the average US price of oil
                                                    Using its new oil-based windfall, Angola       to dip to $56.15 a barrel (inflation adjusted).
                                                 has been able to make dramatic strides in         GDP growth duly collapsed in Angola, plum-
                                                 terms of rebuilding its infrastructure. The       meting to 2.4% in 2009 and 2.3% in 2010.
                                                 results of the construction boom are overt            Thus, any projections when it comes to
                                                 in the country’s dusty capital, Luanda, where     Angola’s GDP growth prospects for the years
                                                 skyscrapers and cranes graze the skies, and       to come are inevitably volatile, being ulti-
                                                 concrete mixers are becoming as common            mately tied to oil prices. Any assessment of
                                                 as street-food stalls.                            the sustainability of the Angolan economy
                                                    Much of the country’s construction efforts     must therefore also rest on tight scrutiny of
                                                 have involved the revamping of thousands of       its progress in diversifying its economy away
                                                 kilometres of its main, secondary and tertiary    from oil-based wealth.
                                                 roads and railway tracks. Moreover, infra-
                                                 structure development efforts are becom-           Diversification:
                                                 ing more ambitious by the day, from plans          staggering rather than striding
                                                 to build Africa’s biggest airport to bringing      Experts warn that Angola’s economy is dan-
                                                 4G networks to Angola in advance of many           gerously undiversified and overreliant on oil
                                                 European countries.                                for capital. It is, however, true that, to a very
                                                    It therefore comes as little surprise that      limited degree, other non-oil aspects of the
                                                 foreign interest in Angola is deepening. Chi-     Angolan economy are also anticipated to
                                                 na, in particular, has captured headlines by       grow over the next few years.
                                                 pumping billions into the country in the               Unsurprisingly perhaps, the one non-oil
                                                 form of loans and credit lines in an attempt       aspect of the economy that is perhaps set
                                                 to gain favoured access to Angola’s oil fields,    to flourish the most in coming years also
                                                 an arrangement which has been dubbed ‘in-          comes within the extractive category – the
                                                 frastructure for oil’ by observers.                mining sector.
                                                     Such financial assistance has mainly fo-           Angola now has one of the biggest and
                                                 cused on public investment projects in in-         most varied portfolios for mining on the con-
                                                 frastructure, agriculture and telecommu-           tinent and is the world’s third major supplier
It comes as little surprise that
                                                 nications.                                         of diamonds. Moreover, diamond extraction
foreign interest in Angola is
                                                    Meanwhile, bilateral trade between China        is set to increase significantly in coming years
deepening. China has pumped
                                                 and Angola reached $120bn in 2010, making         – last year, the industry recorded its best ever
billions into the country
                                                 Angola China’s largest African trade partner.      production figures. And with 60% of Angola’s
                                                 And Chinese firms, as well as ramping up           diamond-rich territory still awaiting explora-
Bouncing back from the brink                     their operations in Angola’s oil sector, are       tion, the potential is massive.
Given the formidable traumas that the coun- keen to explore new areas of the country’s                  Yet, in many ways, the country has a far
try’s economy has been exposed to in the economy, such as the diamond mining sector.                way to go. Take the country’s ailing agri-
recent past, its current growth level is all the     European counties have also been eager to      cultural sector. Before the war, Angola was
more impressive.                                 step up their relations with Angola recently.      self-sufficient in virtually all food crops and
   Economists have projected around 10% For example, the UK’s annual investment in                  exported various products including sisal,
GDP growth for this year. The country’s GDP Angola has reached $3bn, making it the coun-            banana, tobacco and maize. It was also the
growth figures from slightly further back are try’s second-largest investor. And, although          fourth-largest coffee producer in the world.
also staggering – between 2005 and 2007, trade with Germany is relatively modest,                   Now a large proportion of food is import-
GDP growth averaged around 21%, peaking German construction companies are showing                   ed and only 10% of the 35m hectares of the
at nearly 23% in 2007.                           a strong appetite for building their stake in      country’s cultivable land is being used for
   Such growth has been overwhelmingly Angola’s infrastructural development.                        agriculture.
due to the hike in Angola’s exports of its          The interest of rising power in fellow              The civil war has been a big contributing

African Business | June 2012                                                                                                                    51
Angola Rise of a new African superpower?
FOCUS                                              ANGOLA

                                                                                                                                 In AN
                                                                                                                                  we see
                                                                                                     The Capanda Dam on the Cuanza river generates
                                                                                                     hydroelectric power with a capacity of 520MW.

                                                                                                                       In ANG
                                                                                                    ating a skilled labour pool: because of the
                                                                                                    civil war, a whole generation of Angolans
                                                                                                    have missed out on education and training.

                                                                                                                       we see op
                                                                                                    The overall proportion of skilled workers
                                                                                                    is low – 74% of those aged 20-24 years old
                                                                                                    are unskilled, according to the OECD. That
                                                                                                    figure is 68% for those aged 25 to 29. Eighty-
                                                                                                    eight per cent of women in Angola are also
                                                                                                    unskilled.
                                                                                                        The implications that this has in terms
                                                                                                    of boosting non-oil aspects of the economy

                                                                                                       In ANGOLA
                                                                                                    and encouraging foreign firms to invest in
                                                                                                    both industry and agriculture is, of course,
                                                                                                    massive.

                                                                                                       we see opportu
                                                                                                        There have been some attempts to tackle
                                                                                                    this issue – a major three-year government
                                                                                                    plan to boost technical education levels was
                                                                                                    announced in 2005, which included the con-
                                                                                                    struction of 35 technical institutes with Chi-
                                                                                                    nese support in the form of capital.
factor to the poor state of agriculture in An-                                                          Yet, according to the OECD, the curricu-
gola. A particularly destructive repercussion       The government has shown                        lum needs updating and there are no known
of that war is the fact that large tracts of land   willingness to make the                         plans to train new teachers. There are also
remain abandoned because the prevalence             agricultural sector a priority and              nowhere near enough vocational training
                                                    commit much-needed investment
                                                                                                                                      Best Inve
of land mines, hidden in these plots during                                                         centres in Angola to meet demand.
the conflict.                                                                                           Worryingly, alleged corruption is also
    The government has nonetheless shown               There have been some attempts to reinvig-    reportedly depriving Angola of the capital
an encouraging willingness to make the agri-        orate Angola’s manufacturing arm, however.      investment that the non-oil sectors of its
cultural sector a priority and commit much-         In the 1990s the state undertook a privatisa-   economy need to develop.
needed investment: in 2009 it announced its         tion drive and began its battle to encourage        The Angolan government has shown some
intention to commit no less than $12bn to           foreign investment. And there is a smattering   glimmers of willingness to reform. Yet the
agriculture and increase cereal output five-        of evidence of such foreign interest today.     country’s ranking in Transparency Interna-
fold to 15m tons by 2013.                              Although some mooted manufacturing           tional’s Corruption Perceptions Index for 2011
    It is, nonetheless, clear that transform-       ventures, such as Volkswagen’s plans to build   was poor, with the country coming in 168th,
ing the sector will be no easy task: Angolan        a car plant in Angola, have not come into       a worse result than in 2008.
banks are reportedly reluctant to lend to           fruition, others have resulted in success.          Angola is awash with advantages; from
farmers, and disease, poor practices when
it comes to management and harvesting of
                                                       For example, the South African packing
                                                    company Nampak, which opened its first                                  Best Investm
                                                                                                    its natural resources stockpile to its enviable
                                                                                                    demographics, the country has several pil-
crops, scarcity of vital inputs and lack of         plant in the country in 2011, plans to build    lars of strength which it will be able to lean
training support for farmers continues to           two further manufacturing facilities.           on when propelling itself towards further
prevent sufficient growth within the sector.           International organisations have also        economic growth.
    The country’s manufacturing industry is         shown a keenness to boost SME manufac-              Experts assess that impressive growth
also struggling to take off. The area contrib-      turing.                                         should materialise in coming years, as long
utes only slightly to the economy, making up           For example, the International Finance       as the prices of its major export, oil, remains
5.79% of value-added GDP in 2010, according
to World Bank figures.
                                                    Corporation (a member of the World Bank
                                                    Group) has recently provided loans to com-
                                                                                                    high.
                                                                                                           Best Investment Ba
                                                                                                        Yet, the country’s economy is danger-
    Moreover, this figure represented a de-         panies within the sector: one to a cement       ously undiversified and faces some daunting
crease from 2009, when industry contributed         plant worth $27m and one to a soap manu-        macro-economic challenges. With both po-
6.07% of GDP. Although manufacturing                facturing firm.                                 litical and economic power still heavily con-
flourished before the war, the onset of con-                                                        centrated in the hands of very few in Angola,
flict compromised the skills of the work pool       Creating a skilled labour pool                  perhaps it is fair to assert that whether these
and disrupted production; the sector is still       Perhaps the most daunting task that the         will be tackled depends, more than anything,
recovering from these setbacks.                     country faces over the next decade is in cre-   on the mettle and appetite for change of

52                                                                                                                   African Business | June 2012
Angola Rise of a new African superpower?
FOCUS                                            ANGOLA

   Oil rules all
                                                                                                 Angola's Minister of Petroleum Jose Maria
                                                                                                 Botelho de Vasconcelos (below): the importance
                                                                                                 of oil to Anglola cannot be overstated.

                                                                                                The acceleration of exploration
                                                                                                activities is also anticipated to add
                                                                                                to Angola’s already impressive oil
                                                                                                reserves

                                                                                                    The continuing surge in oil production is
                                                                                                partly due to new offshore projects coming
                                                                                                into fruition. They include Pazflor, at deep-
                                                                                                water offshore block 17, 150km off the coast
                                                                                                of Angola, which is operated by Total in
                                                                                                partnership with Statoil, Esso and BP.
                                                                                                    The country has plans to increase Pazflor’s
                                                                                                June exports by one cargo from May to seven.
                                                                                                This would be the project’s largest output
                                                                                                since it was initiated in October 2011.
                                                                                                    Another project which is expected to ramp
                                                                                                up oil output is Plutao, Saturno, Venus and
                                                                                                Marte (PSVM), which is anticipated to have
                                                                                                output peaking at 150,000 b/d by 2013–2014.
                                                                                                    The acceleration of exploration activities
                                                                                                is also anticipated to add to Angola’s already
                                                                                                impressive oil reserves, currently estimated
                                                                                                to be between 10 and 13.5bn barrels.
                                                                                                    Gas production, which is tied to oil pro-
                                                                                                duction, can also be expected to increase in
                                                                                                Angola. Estimates put gas reserves above 11
                                                                                                trillion cubic feet.
                                                                                                    The expected boost in output levels is
                                                                                                partly due to projects with notable gas pro-
                                                                                                duction tied to them getting under way. It is
                                                                                                also partially due to the fact that significant

A
         ngola is the second biggest producer                                                   efforts have been made to reduce gas flaring
         of crude oil in Africa. A combination                                                  in the country.
         of intensified oil exploitation in the                                                     Exportation outlook is promising: Angola
         country and damage to the oil in-                                                      LNG is expected to start regularly exporting
frastructure in the Niger delta due to attacks                                                  to Asia and Europe, rather than the US, due
from anti-government insurgents, enabled                                                        to higher prices in the former regions, from

                                                  90%
Angola to temporarily surpass Nigeria in the                                                    June following shipping tests.
oil production stakes in 2008, but Nigeria                                                          And Angola’s LNG plant in Soyo, which
regained its top position and is expected to                                                    is now in its advanced stages, also hit the
produce 2.6m barrels per day in 2012.                                                           headlines in May; its annual production is
   However, to assert that oil is the Angolan                                                   anticipated to reach 5.2m metric tonnes.
economy would be no overstatement – expor-                                                          Western oil firms dominate stakes in An-
tation of oil is by far the most important ele-                                                 gola’s oil field. They include the two American
ment in the Angolan economy. It constitutes                                                     firms, Chevron Texaco and ExxonMobil, the
90% of the country’s exports and 80% of its                                                     French company Total, British oil giant BP
government revenue.                               Exportation of oil is by far the most         and Italian firm Agip Eni.
   Moreover, the country’s oil production         important element in the Angolan economy.         Chinese firms are also jockeying for oil
and capacity is set to increase. Oil output       It constitutes 90% of the country’s exports   equity rights in exchange for no-strings loans
was anticipated by the government to reach        and 80% of its government revenue             and credit lines. However, experts predict
1.84m barrels per day in 2012.                                                                  that China is not likely to make any dra-

54                                                                                                               African Business | June 2012
Angola Rise of a new African superpower?
FOCUS                                           ANGOLA

its government. n

                                                 The government decided that
                                                 tourism projects needed to
                                                 prioritise a positive impact
                                                 on the livelihood of rural
                                                 inhabitants

                                                                                                    LNG carrier: Angola LNG is expected to
                                                                                                    start exporting to Asia and Europe.

matic progress in their struggle for more                                                        payments and arrears to the government have
expansive oil rights as its oil companies are    Although some diversification is                systematically characterised management of
said to lag behind when it comes to deploy-      taking place, the economy remains               its national oil revenues.
ing technology and know-how to navigate          dominated by oil and vulnerable to                  Sonangol has, nonetheless, shown some
Angola’s sprawling and treacherous undersea      fluctuations in global oil prices               willingness to reform.
depositories.                                                                                        Firstly, it is now ring-fencing its conces-
    Moreover, it has been reported that the  The firm, which dominates the country’s oil         sionaire activities and has audited its quasi-
Angolan government has sought to impose       landscape, became the national oil company         fiscal endeavours, according to the Develop-
limits on Chinese operations in the coun-     in 1976. Sonangol has huge economic clout          ment Bank of Southern Africa.
try through its subsidiary active within the – it is estimated that the firm has more than           Wider reforms across the sector have also
country, Sonangol Sinopec.                    5m barrels of both onshore and offshore oil        been noted. For example, international audi-
    In contrast, downstream production is     reserves.                                          tors are now permitted to carry out annual
likely to remain modest in Angola in the im-      Moreover, Sonangol’s acquisition of pe-        audits of the country’s oil industry and the
mediate future. There is currently only one   troleum reserves looks set to only increase        oil-bidding procedure is now more trans-
refinery in Luanda. There are, however, plans as new discoveries currently override con-         parent.
to build a new refinery, known as SonaRef,    sumption massively.                                    Yet questions remain over whether the
in Lobito.                                        Sonangol is accused of having a weak           oil-boom will supply Angola with reliable
    Commissioning at the end of the $8bn      corporate governance structure and keeping         growth.
project is scheduled to take place by 2016. Itirregular accounts.                                   “Although there is some diversification
is estimated that SonaRef’s refining capacity     It has also been criticised for alleged poor   taking place, the economy remains domi-
will add up to 200,000 b/day with the over-   oversight of its oil revenues. Sonangol also       nated by oil and, as such, vulnerable to fluc-
whelming majority of its production being     attracted criticism in 2001; although oil rev-     tuations in global oil prices,” says Lisa Lewin,
harnessed for domestic consumption.           enues are meant to be paid into a specific ac-     head of sub-Saharan Africa Analysis at BMI.
                                              count administered by Angola’s state bank in          “Even if oil prices remain stable, we ex-
Watching Sonangol                            Angola, in 2001 Sonangol announced that it          pect GDP growth to be largely determined
By far the single biggest player in Angola’s would no longer comply with this protocol.          by trends in the oil sector, since output in
oil and gas industry is the state-owned oil      According to a report by the Development        that industry comprises a significant share
firm Sonangol.                                Bank of South Africa, since then tax under-        (around 50%) of the total economy.” n

56                                                                                                                 African Business | June 2012
Angola Rise of a new African superpower?
FOCUS                                           ANGOLA

Finance
exciting growth

                                                                                                The banking sector has huge potential for future
                                                                                                growth and is diversifying away from domination
                                                                                                by state banks.

                                                                                               monthly ATM transactions in Angola has
                                                                                               reached 10m kwanza ($105,000).
                                                                                                  The sector is also diversifying, moving
                                                                                               away from its previous structure dominated
                                                                                               by state banks. Although most assets are still
                                                                                               concentrated within the country’s five larg-
                                                                                               est banks, their share of total wealth in the
                                                                                               financial sector is decreasing.
                                                                                                  In addition, new institutions are entering
                                                                                               Angola’s banking industry. In 2010, alone,
                                                                                               three new banks, BPD, BCH and BNB opened
                                                                                               for business. This bought the total number
                                                                                               of authorised banks in the country up to 23.
                                                                                                  According to banking analysts, with bank-
                                                                                               ing penetration still low in relative and abso-
                                                                                               lute terms at only 11%, the potential for the
                                                                                               industry’s further growth is huge. “Histori-
                                                                                               cally, the main reasons for this low banking
                                                                                               penetration derived essentially from the ab-
                                                                                               sence or low level of infrastructures in some
                                                                                               regional areas (particularly outside the major
                                                                                               cities and far from the coastline), revealing

A
         nalysts perceive a warm glow over                                                     average income asymmetries within the
                                                The financial sector has made
         the potential of Angola’s finance sec-                                                population, from the financial illiteracy of a
                                                positive strides largely due to post-
         tor. By and large, the sector is well                                                 significant part of the population and from
                                                war reforms such as the Financial
         capitalised and liquid, with an excel-                                                the existence of an informal payments sys-
                                                Institutions Modernisation Project
lent profit outlook and strong asset quality.                                                  tem and economy,” Ribeirinho commented.
   Angola’s banking sector has experienced
encouraging growth in recent years. “The the sector’s assets increased by 21% and the Restoring confidence
sustained economic growth of Angola, the number of branches surged by more than The country’s insurance sector has also been
gradual increase of the average life expect- 22%. The number of those employed within maturing well since the government submit-
ancy and greater literacy levels have been the sector also jumped by over 18%.                 ted it to a liberalisation programme in 2000
shaping the country’s demography, contrib-        Profitability has also increased, with bank- and it has experienced substantial growth.
uting to changes in client behaviour, not only ing and net incomes rising by nearly a quarter. The number of insurance firms operating
in more consistent saving habits, but also Moreover, the number of monthly transac- in Angola has risen to 21, with 11 reportedly
into an increasing demand for new products, tions amongst banks in Angola has increased pending licensing, according to KPMG.
transactions and channels,” Vitor Ribeirinho, by millions in recent years.                        The financial sector has made such posi-
Head of Audit of KPMG Portugal and Angola,        Figures announced by the Empresa Inter- tive strides largely due to a stringent diet of
commented. According to KPMG, in 2010, bancária de Serviços reveal that the value of post-war reforms. Between 1992 and 2002,

58                                                                                                                African Business | June 2012
Angola Rise of a new African superpower?
FOCUS                                            ANGOLA

                                                                                             Growth of the non-oil aspects of
                                                                                             Angola’s economy is crucial to
                                                                                             ensuring the creation of a more
                                                                                             solid and sustainable economy

                                                                                             to oversee its implementation. The move is
                                                                                             reported to have caused a lot of foreign as-
                                                                                             set management firms to quietly move into
                                                                                             the capital in preparation for the launch, al-
                                                                                             though, as of 2012, the stock market has not
                                                                                             yet materialised. "There are some key factors
                                                                                             that may influence the launch (and timing)
                                                                                             of capital markets in Angola, including the
                                                                                             creation and adoption of a legal framework,
                                                                                             both at the legislative and regulatory level,
                                                                                             that supports the implementation of this
                                                                                             activity; and the continuous reinforcement
                                                                                             of the supervisory role, ensuring the trans-
                                                                                             parency and credibility of the capital market,”
                                                                                             Ribeirinho commented.
                                                                                                 Nonetheless, according to industry ex-
                                                                                             perts, the banking sector is still not fulfilling
                                                                                             its potential as an instrument for capitalising
                                                                                             Angola’s growing economy by turning cus-
                                                                                             tomer deposits into credit or loans. Angolan
                                                                                             banks are reported to be still relatively risk
                                                                                             averse after years of high inflation and po-
                                                                                             litical instability and reluctant to hand out
                                                                                             loans, especially in sectors of the economy
                                                                                             outside of oil and infrastructure.
                                                                                                 Some allege that since defaults on loans
                                                                                             are still high in some sectors, for example
                                                                                             in agriculture, banks have adopted an ultra-
                                                                                             cautious approach.
                                                                                                 Others attest that many Angolans lack
                                                                                             training in basic business practices, such as
                                                                                             accounting or drawing up business plans,
                                                  Exciting economy: Africa’s largest bank,   making Angolan banks even less willing to
                                                  Standard Bank is leading the way.          lend to small businesses.
                                                                                                 As growth of the non-oil aspects of An-
                                                                                             gola’s economy, such as agriculture and in-
                                                                                             dustry, is crucial to ensuring the creation of

                                                 Kz10m
                                                                                             a more solid and sustainable economy, with
the sector was subjected to the rigorous Fi-                                                 a more equal distribution of wealth, the re-
nancial Institutions Modernisation Project,                                                  luctance of Angolan banks to lend in these
which involved liberalising the sector as well                                               areas is a serious handicap. Nevertheless, as
as bringing into force a new framework for                                                   the pace of the economy picks up and more
regulation and supervision. Angola’s central                                                 money trickles down, the banking and insur-
bank has also focused much effort on restor-                                                 ance potential is vast. It is precisely the sort
ing confidence in the kwanza, after triple-                                                  of environment that many African bankers,
digit inflation during the civil war destroyed   The value of monthly ATM transactions       from East and West Africa, have managed to
confidence in its local currency.                in Angola has reached 10m kwanza            turn around at very healthy profits to them-
    Furthermore, the government caused                                                       selves and their shareholders. One expects
a flurry of excitement in December 2005                                                      that several continental banks will join the
when it announced its intentions to launch                                                   queue to obtain licences in Africa’s most
a stock market. It duly created a commission                                                 exciting economy. n

60                                                                                                             African Business | June 2012
Angola Rise of a new African superpower?
FOCUS                                              ANGOLA

Interview Pedro Pinto Coelho MD, Standard Bank Angola

Raising the Standard
Standard Bank Angola, a subsidiary of Standard Bank, Africa’s largest
lender, started operations in 2009, opening its first branch in 2010. The
bank has six branches, five in the capital, Luanda, and one in Lubango
in the south. The bank comprises a corporate investment bank for larger
clients and a retail section. It is planning to roll out more branches and
become one of the top five banks in Angola. Stephen Williams talked to
the bank's MD, Pedro Pinto Coelho (below), about this vision.

African Business: What sorts of clients are                                                       though there is now an Angolan legal code
you targeting?                                                                                    which has made some changes.
Pedro Pinto Coelho: We have a strategy that                                                           But essentially, the biggest influence is
we call the virtuous circle. We start with                                                        Portugal and, to a certain extent, Brazil. Due
the top of the economic pyramid, that is the                                                      to the fact that a number of Portuguese banks
large corporates, since we are the only true                                                      that have been here for many years, Angolan
international bank in Angola. We operate in                                                       banks have tended to operate in the same
all of Angola’s neighbouring countries and,                                                       way as them.
in fact, in 17 countries throughout Africa,
while other banks here are domestic Angolan                                                       How competitive is the Angolan banking
Banks or subsidiaries of Portuguese banks.                                                        system, and what are the strengths you
So we have that advantage.                                                                        are bringing to the market?
   The first objective is to provide our serv-                                                    I would say that we bring a new type of cul-
ices to these large corporates, leveraging                                                        ture and a new way of doing business, so I
our truly pan-African and, indeed, global                                                         think that we can differentiate ourselves from
networks.                                                                                         the rest of the banks.
   We then focus on the smaller and me-                                                              We are particularly focused on the qual-
dium-size companies that are typically the                                                        ity of the service. The ébanking sector in
suppliers to the large corporates, and then                                                       Angola is quite young with just five banks,
we offer retail banking services – especially                                                     namely Banco Poupança e Crédito SARL;
to the employees of the companies we work                                                         Banco Angolano de Investimentos; Banco
with and high-net-worth individuals.                                                              Fomento Angola; Banco BIC SA; and Banco
                                                                                                  Espírito Santo Angola SA as the country’s
You have very ambitious expansion plans                                                           biggest lenders, according to the central bank,
in terms of rolling out your branch net-                                                          controlling 80% of the market. That is why
work. So will the nature of your client base      of this year. And in three to five years’ time, I say it is so important for us to break into
change as you expand?                             hopefully, we will have established around that top five.
We are only expecting to cover the remain-        60-70 branches that will allow us to build a       Banking has grown quite fast in Angola
ing parts of the banking market at a much         client base across the country.                 over the last decade, but many of the banks
later stage, if and when we are able to service                                                   have just not had the time to adjust their op-
the corporate segment, which is our priority.     How different is the banking culture in erations to cope with the number of clients
   At this stage, we are not planning to be       Angola to other countries in Africa?            that they have been attracting.
a full-fledged universal bank because that        The banking culture in Angola is influenced        We hope that, by entering at the later stage
would require many more branches than we          by the fact that this is a country working in the market, we can be more competitive,
currently own, although we anticipate open-       under a different legal system, which is in- particularly in terms of the strength of our
ing between 20 and 25 branches by the end         fluenced by the Portuguese legal system – al- balance sheet.

62                                                                                                                  African Business | June 2012
Five Standard Bank branches now serve the
                                                                                                  capital Luanda, but many more are to open
                                                                                                  throughout the country.

                                                                                                 Also in the short to medium term there are a
                                                                                                 number of retailers that are being established
                                                                                                 here. Now you have the major brands starting
                                                                                                 to want to be based in Angola.
                                                                                                    In the medium to long term, but not at
                                                                                                 such a quick pace, there are clearly some in-
                                                                                                 dustries that are trying to become established
                                                                                                 here. For example, there is one enterprise that
                                                                                                 has already opened producing cans for the
                                                                                                 beverage industries. I think that there will be
                                                                                                 more important investment, particularly in
                                                                                                 construction materials production that will
                                                                                                 reduce the imports from abroad.

                                                                                                 AB: Are there any other trends within the
                                                                                                 retail space? I’m thinking here of the big
                                                                                                 supermarket groups that are opening up
                                                                                                 in Angola.
The first objective is to provide our services to large corporates,                              Yes, there are Portuguese, Angolan retail-
leveraging our truly pan-African and, indeed, global networks                                    ers and South African retailers that have all
                                                                                                 have ambitious plans to grow, and grow fast,
                                                                                                 in Angola. Clearly, food and beverage retail-
Are there any other advantages that Stand-         This places a lot of pressure on the existing ing is growing very quickly. I sense that the
ard Bank Angola enjoys?                         financial system to ensure the right proce- agricultural sector has been a bit slow. But
First of all, we are the largest African bank dures are followed, that the banks are fully I think with the number of instruments the
and have the full support of the Standard prepared and they have the right skills sets, government is providing in terms of subsidies
Bank Group. Secondly, we are an interna- the right people and the right systems in place and trying to attract investment in that area,
tional bank; and thirdly, because we always to guarantee a smooth process of payment. it will also eventually allow Angola to capture
provide the best quality service possible – and    We believe that we are quite well posi- some of that investment in agriculture. But I
that is something that, in my experience, the tioned for this. We have been attracting a lot think it is taking a bit longer due to the nature
customer always appreciates.                    of these companies already. I would expect of the sector and the cycle is much longer.
    Finally, I think that the way we are very a big share of that particular market and,
careful in how we deal with the client is piv- on the other hand, we also have people that AB: Would you say that the economy is
otal. We segment the client according to its come from the industries and that speak the diversifying quickly enough to deal with
profile; whether it is an oil and gas company, same language.                                    Angola’s demographics and the income
the government, a retail company, a private        We have an oil and gas desk specifically disparity in the country?
client or whoever is in front of us, we try to that relates with these companies and they I would say that it is clearly an objective from
tailor our service specifically to that client. are so focused on the oil industry that we the government to increase the number of
                                                can guarantee that we understand their chal- jobs and diversify away from the oil and gas
AB: As a proportion, how much of your lenges and we can support them. I would business.
business is oil and gas related?                say, right now, that our oil and gas business       Certainly, there are limitations bearing in
Well, our business is still quite young. Basi- is about 20% of our portfolio, but I would mind the level of qualification the Angolans
cally, the fact is that since we are a new bank expect this figure to increase within the next have, and those that they need to have. I think
in this country, the companies that have been couple of years.                                   the diversification is probably not proceeding
present in Angola have naturally had to work                                                     as quickly as government may want or that
with banks that were already operating in AB: Beyond the oil and gas and extrac- Angolans believe is necessary, but realistically
Angola – that is, Angolan banks and some tive sectors, which of Angola’s economic I think that a lot has been achieved in such a
Portuguese banks. I believe there is the pos- sectors, in your opinion, offer the best short period for a country.
sibility that that this will change and we will potential?                                          In 10 years, they have done such a lot, they
attract more oil and gas clients, especially as I think it depends on the time frame. If we have had to train people in order to guarantee
the government wants the oil companies to consider the short to medium term, I would they achieve adequate and relevant economic
start paying their taxes and services through say that the construction sector, particu- diversity, and that will take some time given
the local financial system.                     larly infrastructure, will be quite important. the wide skills gap. n

African Business | June 2012                                                                                                                 63
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