BATTLEGROUND BRIEFING - Priorities USA
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BATTLEGROUND BRIEFING
STATES
CORE:
FL, WI, PA, MI, NH, NV
EXPANSION:
AZ, NC, GA
DEM WATCH: GOP WATCH:
MN, VA, CO IA, OH, TX
FL, WI, PA & MI CRITICAL TO TRUMP’S PATH TO 270
10 16
20
29
PRIORITIES USA TO INVEST $100M IN
EARLY ENGAGEMENT PROGRAM
10
16
20
PHASE 1
29 Electoral votes
PRIORITIES USA WILL EXPAND THE MAP
IN PHASE 2 PROGRAM
4
10
16
20
PHASE 1
6 PHASE 2
15
11
16
29 Electoral votes
NEW POLLING
2
METHODOLOGY
FOCUS GROUPS ONLINE SURVEY: ONLINE SURVEY:
ALL REGISTERED VOTERS DEMOCRATIC
Phoenix, AZ- TURNOUT TARGETS
1,851 registered voters across
Suburban persuasion voters 400 turnout targets across an
Latinx turnout targets 7 key battleground states
(AZ, FL, MI, NH, NV, PA, WI) expanded battleground of 15
states (AZ, FL, MI, NH, NV, PA, WI,
Miami, FL- Conducted Jan. 30 to Feb. 7 plus CO, GA, IA, MN, NC, OH, TX, VA)
Young voter turnout targets
Latinx persuasion targets 13% did not vote in 2016 Conducted February 4 to 11
Milwaukee, WI Results weighted in proportion to Turnout targets: Democrats who
African-American didn’t vote in 2016 (68% registered,
share of electoral votes per state
turnout targets 32% unregistered but open to registering)
MOE = ∓2.3pp
White working-class MOE = ∓5.0pp
persuasion voters
DONALD TRUMP IS CLEARLY VERY VULNERABLE
Initial trial heats
Donald Trump Democrat Undecided
87%
79%
49%
47% 47% 47%
36%
24%
15% 19%
15%
6% 9%
3% 4%
REGISTERED 2016 2016 2016 2016
VOTERS TRUMP VOTERS CLINTON VOTERS 3rd PARTY VOTERS NONVOTERS
TURNOUT RESEARCH SHOWS DEMOCRATS ARE
POISED TO GROW THE ELECTORATE FROM 2016
IMPORTANCE OF 2020 ELECTION
83% 14% 3%
More important than past elections About the same Less Important
LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING IN 2020
50% 22% 15% 13%
Extremely likely Very likely Fairly likely Less/not likely16% OF ALL REGISTERED VOTERS DID NOT VOTE FOR CLINTON
BUT ARE INCLINED TO VOTE FOR A DEMOCRAT IN 2020
Open to Democrat
Did not vote in 2016 Voted 3rd party Voted Trump/opposed Clinton Voted Trump/supported Trump
51% 17% 20% 12%HEALTH CARE AND WAGES CONTINUE
TO BE IMPORTANT TO KEY VOTERS
PERSUASION MOBILIZATION
TARGETS TARGETS
59% health care 62% health care
42% wages 45% wages
PERCENT SELECTING HEALTH CARE AND
WAGES AS TOP ISSUES FOR TARGET VOTERSVOTERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BELIEVE TRUMP CARES ABOUT THE
WEALTHY AND CORPORATE INTERESTS, NOT AVERAGE PEOPLE
IN EACH PAIR, WHICH STATEMENT ABOUT TRUMP COMES CLOSER TO YOUR OPINION?
Pro Trump statement Both equal Anti-Trump Statement
Donald Trump cares mostly about +26 Donald Trump cares mostly about helping the
helping the average person Wealthy and corporate special interests
AVERAGE PERSON
VS WEALTHY PEOPLE 29% 55%
Donald Trump is effective and he has +20 Donald Trump too often creates chaos and gridlock that
gotten a lot done as president prevent things from getting done
EFFECTIVE VS
CHAOS/GRIDLOCK 35% 55%
Donald Trump may exaggerate occasionally, but he mainly +17 Donald Trump has a consistent pattern of saying things that aren’t
tells the truth and it is the news media that lacks integrity true and repeating them even if they are proven false
TRUTH VS LIES 37% 54%
Donald Trump tells it like it is and doesn’t +3
worry Donald Trump’s rhetoric is mean-spirited and divisive
about being politically correct
TELLS IT LIKE IT IS
VS DIVISIVE 43% 46%A KEY MESSAGING PRIORITY FOR 2020: MAKING TRUMP PART OF THE PROBLEM, NOT PART OF THE SOLUTION, FOR PEOPLE’S BIGGEST ECONOMIC CONCERNS
VOTERS ARE MIXED ON TRUMP'S HANDLING OF THE ECONOMY
DONALD TRUMP HANDLING OF ECONOMY
APPROVAL DISAPPROVAL
27% 23% 16% 34%
STRONGLY APPROVE STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
SATISFACTION WITH ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
FAIRLY SATISFIED SOMEWHAT SATISFIED NOT THAT SATISFIED
13% 25% 24% 26% 12%
VERY SATISFIED NOT AT ALL SATISFIEDVOTERS DO NOT BELIEVE THEY'VE
BENEFITTED FROM THE TRUMP ECONOMY
How much do you feel you PERSONALLY have benefitted from Donald Trump’s economic policies?
9% 26% 17% 48%
Benefitted a lot some A little Not at all
More important fact about economy today to voters
69% 31%
Wages not keeping up with cost of living/cost of Healthcare way up
Millions of new jobs created in past few years/unemployment way downVOTERS DO NOT BELIEVE THINGS ARE GETTING
BETTER FOR THEM OR OTHERS LIKE THEM
YOUNG PEOPLE STARTING OUT TODAY Net getting better
19% 55% -36
MIDDLE CLASS & AVERAGE WORKING FAMILIES
18% 51% -33
ME AND MY FAMILY
19% 34% -15
PEOPLE WHO ARE ALREADY WEALTHY
63% 6% +57
The economic situation for this group is getting worse
The economic situation for this group is getting betterAMONG TURNOUT VOTERS, ECONOMIC CONCERNS
EMERGED AS A FUNDAMENTAL REASON TO VOTE
four best reasons to get involved in the 2020 election
(showing top reasons only)
Elect president whose economic priority is
stability, security, opportunity for average 43%
people, not just helping rich get richer
Elect new president who will heal the country,
bring people together, stop dividing people like 36%
Trump does
Elect president who will address skyrocketing
healthcare/Rx costs; Trump’s policies have 35%
made things worse
Elect president who will look out for average
working Americans instead of himself, rich 34%
friends, corporate CEOs
Stand up against racism and promote racial
33%
justice; won’t happen with Trump as presidentKEY TAKEAWAYS
● There is a large group of new Democratic voters to engage
○ People who didn’t vote in 2016
○ Disaffected Trump voters, whose motivation was to oppose Clinton
● Health care is dominant concern. Prime targets also prioritize:
○ Wages not keeping up with cost of living
○ Government corruption
○ Climate change/the environment
● Target voters think Trump prioritizes special interests and the wealthy, and want someone who’ll look out
for average Americans.
● Voters are more concerned with rising cost of living and falling behind over falling unemployment.
People feel conditions are changing for the worse.
● A key goal for 2019: draw a link between voters’ economic concerns and Trump’s policies and actions.EARLY ENGAGEMENT PROGRAM
WE SPENT LAST TWO YEARS BUILDING CUTTING EDGE
TECH & ANALYTICS INFRASTRUCTURE
DATA INFRASTRUCTURE STAFF
Collected 1.98 million survey Developed creative-first Built in-house teams for
responses over 2+ years targeting tools creative and media strategy
Built dozens of digital, issue & Created a dashboard for Created an internal analytics
behavioral models coordinating digital spend team to support data-driven
across IEs decision making
Used rigorous experimentation to
establish channel, audience and Engineered pipelines of data Cultivated new talent with training
goal specific best practices that to monitor online spending & fellows program new in 2020:
go beyond “does digital work” and messaging full in house buying, integrated
paid mediaTRUMP IS UNDERWATER NOW,
WE NEED TO KEEP HIM THERE TO WIN
HOLD GAIN
~4% of electorate in early states (FL, MI, PA, WI) ~9% of electorate in early states (FL, MI, PA, WI)
College-educated, high income earners who live in White, 45+ & live in rural/exurban areas. Often
suburban areas. Often ‘Romney/Clinton’ voters ‘Obama/Trump’ voters
We’ve made gains over time (including 2018) but need Highlight and frame harmful GOP policies +
to solidify and grow support how they impact daily life (wages don’t keep up
with cost of living, affordable and accessible
Highlight + frame harmful policies, drilling down from health care)
surface level “the economy is good” to forward looking
economic stability, wages keeping up cost of living, Refocus conversation towards economic issues, and
saving for retirement, climate change who will build a stable future2020 IS HERE
WE NEED TO START CAMPAIGNING NOW
FRAME REFOCUS ACTIVATE
On-the-ground communications As Trump and the media distract, Tie existing outrage about Trump &
staff to drive conversation in refocus voters on the issues that progressive values to the act of voting.
local communities matter to their lives - using search
behavior, monitoring Trump ad Drive voters in key states to vote in
Contextualize Trump’s effects activity online elections in 2019
to voters who demonstrate an
interest in learning more (using Use innovative modeling to Engage and re-engage democrats
tactics like google search to pull understand and target voters who through voter registration and re-
people in, and ongoing are the most moved by Trump’s registration
conversations in the email inbox, messaging
facebook groups)
Steady drumbeat that highlights
and frames what matters,
during the chaosSTATE CASE STUDIES
CASE STUDY: MILWAUKEE COUNTY, WI
TURNOUT CRATERED BETWEEN '12 AND '16
AUDIENCE
80,969
top tier
mobilization targetsCASE STUDY: WASHTENAW COUNTY, MI
ANN ARBOR CAN BOOST TURNOUT EVEN FURTHER
AUDIENCE
61,075
top tier
mobilization targetsCASE STUDY: DUVAL COUNTY, FL
SMALL INCREASES IN SUPPORT NEED TO BE SOLIDIFIED & GROWN
AUDIENCE
50,239
top tier
persuasion targetsCASE STUDY: CAMBRIA COUNTY, PA
HEART OF OBAMA/TRUMP COUNTRY
AUDIENCE
16,800
top tier
persuasion targetsPRIORITIES USA TO INVEST $100M IN
EARLY ENGAGEMENT PROGRAM
10
16
20
PHASE 1
29 Electoral votesYou can also read
