BEA's Regional Accounts: An Update - C2ER Annual Conference 2019 June 7, 2019

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BEA's Regional Accounts: An Update - C2ER Annual Conference 2019 June 7, 2019
BEA’s Regional Accounts: An Update
         C2ER Annual Conference 2019
                June 7, 2019
BEA's Regional Accounts: An Update - C2ER Annual Conference 2019 June 7, 2019
•Regional Accounts Core Statistics

•Recent Additions

•Program Initiatives/New Statistics


BEA's Regional Accounts: An Update - C2ER Annual Conference 2019 June 7, 2019
BEA’s Regional Core Statistics

•Comprehensive subnational measures of U.S.
 economic activity

•Consistent with BEA’s National and Industry
 Economic Accounts

•Consistent across geography and over time
BEA's Regional Accounts: An Update - C2ER Annual Conference 2019 June 7, 2019
BEA’s Regional Core Statistics, Cont.
Gross Domestic Product
• The market value of goods and services produced by factors of
  production in each geography

• Measured by the income earned from current production

• Real (chained-dollar) GDP deflated using national industry prices

• State Annual (1963-forward)

• State Quarterly (2005-forward)

• Metropolitan Area Annual (2001-forward)
BEA’s Regional Core Statistics, Cont.
Personal Income and Employment
• Income received by or on behalf of residents of a geography
  o   Net earnings by place of residence
  o   Property income
  o   Personal current transfer receipts

• Number of jobs, full and part-time
  o   Wage and salary employment
  o   Proprietors’ employment

• State Annual (1929/1969– forward)

• State Quarterly (1948 – forward)

• County and Metro Area Annual (1969 – forward)
BEA’s Regional Core Statistics, Cont.
Regional Input Output Modeling System (RIMS II)
• Regional economic model for impact analysis
  o   Study economic impacts of a wide range of projects
  o   Measure impact of an initial change in economic activity on industries
      within a defined geography

• RIMS II multipliers
  o   Based on industry relationships from national input-output accounts
  o   Adjusted for leakages with regional data
  o   Customizable geographies
  o   The impacts measured in terms of output, value added, earnings, or
Recent Additions
• Real Personal Income/Regional Price Parities (4/24/14)
  o   Annual 2008-2017 | States and Metropolitan Areas

• Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) by State (12/1/15)
  o   Annual 1997-2017 | 16 spending categories

• Quarterly GDP by State (12/10/15)
  o   2005Q1-2018Q4 | 21 industries

• Arts and Cultural Production Satellite Account (ACPSA)
  o   Annual 2001-2016 | Core and supporting arts industries
  o   State compensation and employment (4/19/17) | State value added
Regional Price Parities (RPPs)
Regional price parities
• Spatial price index
  o   State and metropolitan areas
  o   Goods, rents, other services

• Measure the differences in the price levels of goods and
  services across states and metropolitan areas for a given year

• Regional price levels expressed as a percentage of the overall
  national price level for a given year

• Average RPP across states (US RPP) = 100
Interpreting RPPs
Average price level in Connecticut
 o   8.0% higher than national average (108.0/100.0)
 o   11.3% higher than in Utah (108.0/97.0)

                                  Regional Price Parities, 2017

                             All Items   Goods
                                                      Rents   Other
  United States                  100.0         99.4   101.2       100.0
     Connecticut                 108.0        104.0   113.1       109.0
     Hawaii                      118.5        111.3   156.4       103.2
     Mississippi                  85.7         94.1    62.8         93.3
     North Dakota                 90.1         94.8    78.3         90.8
     Utah                         97.0         96.6    93.9         99.6
  Range across all states         32.8         17.2    95.0         24.1

RPPs for Large Metro Areas, 2017


Real Personal Income
•Personal income adjusted for price level differences
 o Across regions
 o Over time

•Use RPPs in conjunction with BEA’s personal
 consumption expenditures (PCE) price index

•Allows for comparisons of the purchasing power of
 personal income across regions and over time


Real Personal Income, Cont.
 Price adjustment for HI

                  PI   75.4
PI at RPPs =         =      = 63.6             PCE             Current$         Real
                 RPP 1.185            State    Price   RPP         PI            PI
                                               Index           ($ billion)   ($ billion)
 Balancing factor:          = 63.8    Hawaii   106.1   118.5      75.4          60.2

           PI at RPPs   63.8          South
                                               106.1   88.2       42.5          45.5
 Real PI =            =      = 60.2   Dakota
           PCE Index 1.061
           PI     75.4                         106.1   100.0    16,820.3      15,857.2
 IRPD∗ =        =      = 125.2
         Real PI 60.2

* Implicit Regional Price Deflator

PCE by State
• Measure of household spending by state of residence
• Includes
  o   Out-of-pocket household spending
  o   Spending on behalf of households
  o   Imputations
        ▪ Owner-occupied housing
        ▪ Financial services without explicit payment

  o   Net expenditures of non-profit institutions serving households

• Accounting framework aligns state personal income
  and expenditures


PCE by State, Cont.
•Examine spending trends over time

•Per capita measures indicators of economic well-

•Fiscal policy, regional macro and I-O analysis

•Geographic marketing information


PCE by State, Cont.


Quarterly GDP by State
•Earlier read on state of the economy

•Earlier identification of weakening industries

•More precise timing of upturns and downturns in
 state economic activity


Quarterly GDP by State, Cont.
               Michigan Real GDP: Percent Change from Preceding Period
                                                                       Annual GDP       Quarterly GDP
      1   2          3   4   1   2          3   4   1   2          3   4    1       2          3        4
              2007                   2008                   2009                        2010


Arts and Cultural Production (ACPSA)
BEA’s Satellite Accounts
• Frameworks designed to expand the analytical capacity of the
  standard accounts without interfering with their general

• Provide a laboratory for development of concepts and

• Expand the detail of the accounts and allow for flexible
  classification structures

• Allow more focus on a specific activity or sector


ACPSA, Cont.
• Measures the impact of arts and cultural activities on the
  U.S. and individual state economies

• The value of the creative chain associated with arts and
  cultural production (creation, production, distribution, and

• Creative artistic activity
  o   The goods and services produced by such activity
  o   The goods and services produced in support of such activity
  o   The construction of buildings in which the activity takes place
Arts and Cultural Production, 2016
            GDP                 Compensation Employment
 Total       18,707.2 billion         9,956.2 billion   148.7 million
                804.2 billion          386.2 billion      5.0 million
                       4.3%                    3.9%             3.4%
Arts and Cultural Production Value Added:
          Percent of State GDP
Arts and Cultural Production Employment:
       Percent Change, 2015-2016
Program Initiatives/New Statistics
•GDP by County

•Outdoor Recreation Satellite Account (ORSA)
GDP by County
• Provide a much richer picture of the geographic
  distribution of the nation’s economic activity

  o   Assist analysts in the assessment of local economic performance

  o   Inform resource allocation decisions

  o   Assist planners and policymakers in the development of strategies
      that promote economic growth and in the assessment of
      strategies over the long run

• Inform and lead to improvements of GDP by metropolitan
  area statistics and GDP by state statistics


Prototype Release
• Release date: December 12, 2018
• Data series: Annual current- and inflation-adjusted GDP
  statistics for all counties (3,113)
• Industry detail:
  •   All industry total
       ▪ Private goods-producing industries
       ▪ Private services-producing industries
       ▪ Government

• Period: 2012-2015


Percent Change in Real GDP by County, 2014-2015
                             Slope County, ND (-37.8%)
                                North Dakota (-3.0%)

Churchill County,
   NV (7.7%)

Clark County, NV (9.5%)
     Nevada (4.3%)

                                      Roberts County, TX (72.3%)
                                             Texas (5.2%)


Real GDP by County Growth in Nevada, 2014-2015


Next Steps
•Develop further improvements and refinements to
 the prototype statistics

•Determine the level of industry detail for official

•Continue to solicit and incorporate data user

•Official release on December 12, 2019


Outdoor Recreation (ORSA)
• Measures the impact of outdoor recreation activities on
  the U.S. economy

• Mandated by the “Outdoor Recreation Jobs and Economic
  Impact Act of 2016”

• Prototype statistics for the U.S. released in February 2018

• Official statistics for the U.S. released in September 2018

• Regional dimension
  o   The impact of outdoor recreation sector on each state’s economy
  o   Recreation activities that are important to a state’s economy
Defining Outdoor Recreation
Conventional outdoor recreation activities
   •   Outdoor activities that usually occur in nature-based settings and that
       require physical exertion


Defining Outdoor Recreation, Cont.
Comprehensive outdoor recreation activities
                                        Percentage of Households Participating
                                           in Activities (2011—All Varieties)
  Any non-work time spent doing     Activities                                   Percent
  outdoor activities                Walking for pleasure                          82.2%
  (Oregon State University)         Visiting historic sites                       63.5%
                                    Visiting parks (local, state, national)       50.6%
                                    Visiting natural areas/preserves/refuges      50.3%
                                    Swimming, pool                                43.1%
                                    Sunbathing/relaxing on a beach                41.3%
                                    Swimming, beach                               38.3%
                                    Jogging/running                               33.6%
                                    Using a playground                            29.9%
                                    Picnicking away from home                     28.0%
                                    Visiting gardens/arboretums                   25.6%
                                    Hiking/backpacking                            24.8%
                                    Source: Virginia Department of
                                    Conservation and Recreation
Outdoor Recreation, 2016
                         GDP                   Compensation Employment
Total                       18,707.2 billion            9,956.2 billion                 148.7 million

                               412.0 billion             213.6 billion                    4.5 million
                                      2.2%                       2.1%                           3.0%

                      Outdoor Recreation Economy        U.S. Economy


        1.7%                        1.8%

        Real GDP         Real Gross Output      Compensation              Employment
Next Steps
•Research on methodology and developing data
 sources for regional accounts is under way

•Plan to release prototype state-level statistics for
 public comment by the end of FY2019
  o Annual 2012-2017
  o Value added by industry and activity
  o Compensation and employment by industry
Contact Information

                            Comments or questions? Send it to us at:
Ledia Guci
Chief of Regional Product   Want more info?
Division                    Check out:
301.278.9788                at-bea




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