Carbon Transparency Initiative - Surabi Menon () Casey Cronin, Seth Monteith, Dan Plechaty - Ferdi
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COP 21, December 8, 2015, Le Bourget Carbon Transparency Initiative Surabi Menon (surabi.menon@climateworks.org) Casey Cronin, Seth Monteith, Dan Plechaty
About CTI
Carbon Transparency Initiative
Highlighting the progress towards building a low-carbon economy
through analysis of the driver metrics underpinning decarbonization.
METHODOLOGY RESEARCH PARTNERS
Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Climate Action Tracker, International
Trends and forecasts Council on Clean Transport, International Energy Agency, McKinsey,
World Resource Institute and Regional Foundations EF-USA, EF-China,
Learning from historic trends while also ECF, and LARCI
forecasting technological, policy and
economic shifts underway PEER REVIEWERS
Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático, Lawrence Berkeley
Leading Indicators National Laboratory, Grantham Institute, Stockholm Environmental
Institute, Council on Energy, Environment and Water, and California
Both a sector and region analysis of driver Environmental Associates
and outcome metrics allows a view into the
drivers of decarbonization
Transparency
Data, assumptions and calculations are
open and transparent, addressing many of
the pitfalls of “black-box” calculations
2About CTI
A bottom-up assessment of emissions and energy
The model constructs a national inventory of emissions from sector-based activity and
intensity metrics.
Economy wide
Sectors
Sub sectors
Driver metrics
Intensity Activity Comparisons
3Macro-level Comparison
Decoupling emissions from GDP
Patterns of growth differ and a sector-based analysis helps understand why.
China EU-28 India USA
GDP-PPP
Primary Energy
Total Emissions
Carbon Intensity of GDP
-63%
-38% -44% -40%
4Decarbonisation trends - Power sector
Decline in power sector carbon intensities
Increased penetration of RE and a partial switch from coal to gas
generation
Emission Factors: Four regions compared to a global 2°C pathway (gCO2e/kWh)
1000
900 Global CAT/ IPCC: 2°C Range
Global CAT/ IPCC: 2°C Median
800
IEA historic: India
700 CTI future: India
600 CAT future: India
IEA historic: China
500
CTI future: China
400 CAT future: China
IEA historic: USA
300
CAT future: USA
200 CTI future: USA
IEA historic: EU
100
CAT future: EU
0 CTI future: EU
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
5Decarbonisation trends - Power sector
Growth of Renewables – A success story?
CTI projections on par with a WEO 2°C scenario.
• Based on Bloomberg New Energy Finance analysis – depends on market forces,
assumed lowered costs of technology and wider diffusion.
Projections of RE share of Generation 2020 RE% 2030 RE%
China EU-28 India USA
RE includes hydro, geothermal, biomass, wind and solar
Note: Our forecasts do not include modeling of the Clean Power Plan 6Power Focus: Generation Share in 2030
Despite progress in RE, fossil share dominates in some countries
Coal+Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Other RE
0% 50% 100%
7Decarbonisation trends - Power sector
Structural Transformation in China
Can it tip the fossil share?
Projections of coal generation in China (TWh)
7000
CTI projects a faster decline in
6000
coal share of generation due to
lower demand from industry,
5000
BUT
4000
CTI 2015 Range
3000 This is still 50-73% higher than
WEO 2008 (REF) that of WEO’s 2°C pathway.
WEO 2010 (CPS)
2000
WEO 2012 (CPS) Some hope though with
1000 WEO 2014 (CPS) reform in country’s electricity
Actuals (WEO) distribution prioritizing power
0 generation from wind and
solar.
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
8Decarbonisation trends -- Transport sector
Transport emissions are growing
GHG emissions from transport for 4 regions (Gt CO2e)
9
Between 2010 and 2030 transport
8 emission grow by 2.8% per year in
7 China, EU, India, and US.
6 • Driven by large growth in India
(6.6% per year) and China
5
(5.3% per year).
4
3
2
1
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 26%
32.0 Gt CO2e
Source CTI: Based on data from the International Council for Clean Transportation. Includes Aviation, Marine, Rail and
9
Road transport for both Freight and Passengers modesDecarbonisation trends in the Transport sector
Decrease in emissions may be possible
Depends on types of fuel efficiency standards adopted across countries
Growth in zero carbon technologies
Emissions Intensity of LDV (gCO2/vkm) Share of electric vehicles (% of total fleet)
300 10%
CTI China -
historic
250 CTI China - future 8%
CTI EU - historic
CTI USA - historic
200 6% CTI EU - future
CTI USA - future
150 CTI China -
CTI EU - historic 4% future
CTI USA -
100 CTI EU - future historic
2%
CTI USA - future
USA - target (new
50 cars)
0% IEA ETP 2014
EU - target (new
Global 2DS
0 cars)
China - target
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
(new cars)
10
Note: the ETP 2DS target is for a global share of new electric drive vehicles to reach around 4% and this will differ across geographies.Summary
New Report: “Faster & Cleaner”
How decarbonization in the power and transport sectors is surpassing predictions and
offering hope for limiting warming to 2C.”
Decarbonization of the power sector is happening, and faster than
predicted
Wind and solar growth has dwarfed forecasts; CTI’s predicted RE
generation in 4 regions are close to WEO’s 2°C scenario.
CTI predicts coal consumption in China will peak (2016 -2020) but
will be higher than WEO’s 2°C scenario.
ClimateWorks and Passenger vehicle fleets are 1/6th less carbon-intense in the US and EU
Climate Action Tracker today than in 2005.
(NewClimate, Ecofys & If best-practice emissions standards were implemented more
Climate Analytics) broadly, global emissions could be on a 2°C compatible rate of
improvement for the next decade.
http://www.climateworks.org/report/fastercleaner/
ClimateWorks: Casey Cronin, Surabi Menon, Seth Monteith, Dan Plechaty
NewClimate Institute: Markus Hagemann, Niklas Höhne, Sebastian Sterl
Ecofys: Pieter van Breevoort, Karlien Wouters; Climate Analytics: Bill Hare, Niklas Roming, Fabio Sferra
11CTI: Tracking country policies and INDC targets
Will we be on track with INDC targets?
Solar and wind capacity: India’s INDC versus CTI forecast
2022 Capacity in GW
Transformative coalition of
countries with right policy
120 incentives could accelerate
INDC market uptake to technology,
100
80 CTI spur transformation and
60 catalyze decarbonisation.
40
20
0
Solar Wind
capacity capacity
12Thank you for your time!
Surabi.menon@climateworks.orgCTI: Tracking country policies and INDC targets
Illustrative example for the US: Are we on track with INDCs?
US GHG emissions: New Policies
versus INDC Target
Preliminary Analysis
7000
GHG Emissions (Mt CO2e)
Heavy Duty
6500 truck standards
6000 Methane ruling
5500
5000 Clean Power
Plan
4500
INDC target
4000
2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: Preliminary estimates informed by analysis from Rhodium, EPA, BNEF, Climate Action Tracker 14You can also read
