REAL ESTATE 2018 ASIA PACIFIC - CBRE Thailand

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REAL ESTATE 2018 ASIA PACIFIC - CBRE Thailand
CBRE RESEARCH

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   O U T LO O K
REAL ESTATE 2018 ASIA PACIFIC - CBRE Thailand
TABL E OF CONTENT

    04                                                06
    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                                 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

    25
    08                                               12
    OFFICE SECTOR
    RESIDENTIAL SECTOR                               OFFICE SECTOR

    16                                                19
    RETAIL SECTOR                                     INDUSTRIAL &
                                                      LOGISTICS SECTOR

    22                                                25
    CAPITAL MARKETS                                   RISKS & OPPORTUNITIES

© 2018 CBRE, Inc.   2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | BANGKOK   CBRE RESEARCH
                                              2
REAL ESTATE 2018 ASIA PACIFIC - CBRE Thailand
REAL ESTATE 2018 ASIA PACIFIC - CBRE Thailand
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The new year has started with a mood of                 DEMAND CONTINUES FOR PRIME
optimism for the Thai economy lifted by an              SITES
upbeat global outlook.
                                                        Demand for prime sites has remained strong
Developers are competing fiercely for prime             with developers continuing to acquire sites
development sites, driving up prices to record          both for condominium and rental income
levels and both condominium prices and office           producing office, hotel and retail
rents are at record highs.                              developments.

EXPORTS AND TOURISM: MAIN                               Central business district (CBD) land prices will
CONTRIBUTION TO THAI ECONOMY                            continue to increase in the most prime
                                                        locations near mass transit stations.
The Thai economy is picking up with growth in
exports and tourism. Thailand finished last             We have already seen the biggest land sale in
year with 3.9% Y-o-Y gross domestic product             Thai history with the acquisition of the British
(GDP) growth, resulting from a significant              Embassy site by the CPN/Hongkong Land joint
increase of 9.9% in exports to all major                venture and a record price paid for a
markets.                                                development site on Soi Langsuan by SC Asset.

The tourism sector, accounting for 20% of the           Developers are starting to diversify with
country’s GDP, saw a record 35.4 million                residential condominium developers looking at
arrivals in 2017 with further growth predicted          moving into income producing office, retail
for 2018.                                               and hotel properties.

LOCAL DEVELOPERS FORM JOINT                             The scarcity of prime, CBD freehold sites will
VENTURES WITH FOREIGN                                   drive prices up.
PARTNERS
                                                        STEADY DEMAND FOR OFFICES BUT
Thai banks are being conservative about new             TENANTS START TO LOOK AT
project lending to developers and so Thai               ALTERNATIVE WORKPLACE
developers are seeking funding from foreign             SOLUTIONS
partners. Most joint ventures to date have been
with Japanese investors on a project-by-project         CBRE expects steady office demand of 200,000
basis for condominiums.                                 sq.m. per year for the next few years, but does
                                                        not expect a sudden jump in demand, so new
CBRE is now also seeing investors from other            supply of less than 200,000 sq.m. in 2018 will
countries such as Hong Kong, Singapore and              mean that vacancy will remain low and rents
China. Although earlier joint ventures started          will continue to rise, but at a slower rate.
with condominium development, we expect
new investment in both condominium and
income producing properties.

© 2018 CBRE, Inc.         2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | BANGKOK               CBRE RESEARCH
                                                    4
REAL ESTATE 2018 ASIA PACIFIC - CBRE Thailand
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

As rents rise, office tenants will seek to reduce          100,000 square metres in 2017, increasing
occupation costs by applying workplace                     competition among retail centres to attract
strategies so they can put more people in less             customers.
space.
                                                           Retailers and retail landlords will have to adapt
Changes in international accounting rules                  by creating unique experiences that cannot be
where leases now have to be accounted for on               replicated online.
the balance sheet and the desire not to pay for
the capital cost of fit-out and have no long-term          Retailers will also become omni-channel with a
commitments will lead some multinationals to               mixture of online and offline sales which could
choose renting by the desk in co-working                   mean they need less space.
space, rather than leasing and fitting out
traditional offices.                                       E-COMMERCE DRIVES DEMAND FOR
                                                           MODERN LOGISTICS
Four international co-working space operators
will open their first locations in office buildings        The growth in e-commerce will lead to
in Bangkok’s CBD this year. CBRE expects they              increased demand for all forms of modern
will continue to expand in 2018.                           logistics properties.

RETAIL LANDLORDS TO CREATE                                 Export growth in manufactured goods could be
NEW EXPERIENCES                                            the catalyst for a recovery in serviced industrial
                                                           land plot sales and ready-built factory rentals.
The contest between “bricks versus clicks”,                Infrastructure improvements under the
with the disruptive effect of e-commerce on                Government’s Thailand 4.0 and Eastern
traditional retail formats, will start to be felt in       Economic Corridor (EEC) policies should make
Thailand in 2018.                                          Thailand a more attractive destination for local
                                                           and foreign investment in manufacturing, but
CBRE predicts that the vacancy rate of 5% will             much of this improvement will only come
fall as renovations are completed on existing              when the infrastructure is completed.
shopping centres. New supply will be about
300,000 square metres in 2018, compared to

        Fierce competition for prime development site, driving
        up prices to record levels.

© 2018 CBRE, Inc.           2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | BANGKOK                 CBRE RESEARCH
                                                       5
REAL ESTATE 2018 ASIA PACIFIC - CBRE Thailand
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
REAL ESTATE 2018 ASIA PACIFIC - CBRE Thailand
ECO NO MIC OU TLOOK

         ECONOMIC GROWTH IS PICKING UP
           WITH EXPORTS AND TOURISM

Thailand’s economic growth is gradually                  2017 was a strong year for exports with
improving, and the Bank of Thailand has                  estimated full year growth at 9.9%, the highest
forecasted that GDP growth will reach near 4%            in six years and exceeding overall global export
in 2018. Thailand’s rapid increase in tourist            growth of 8.6%. The Commence Ministry
arrivals, export growth and infrastructure               expects export growth to increase by 6 - 6.5%
developments are continuing to drive the                 this year.
economy.
                                                         CBRE Research expects to see a recovery in
Thailand had 35.3 million tourist arrivals in            consumer confidence and spending which will
2017, a record number with 8.6% growth Y-o-Y.            be positive for the property markets.
In 2018, the total revenue from both
international and domestic tourist arrivals is
expected to be at 2.7 trillion baht or 20% of the
country’s GDP.

© 2018 CBRE, Inc.          2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | BANGKOK               CBRE RESEARCH
                                                     7
REAL ESTATE 2018 ASIA PACIFIC - CBRE Thailand
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
REAL ESTATE 2018 ASIA PACIFIC - CBRE Thailand
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

                    FOREIGN CAPITAL INFLUX

HIGHER FOREIGN CAPITAL INFLOW                            There have also been greater efforts by
                                                         developers to market Bangkok condominiums
Raising capital through collaboration with               offshore with much emphasis on Chinese
foreign partners has now become the new                  buyers. Thailand, unlike Hong Kong, Singapore
standard as local developers seek bigger war             and Australia, does not have special stamp
chests for new development because Thai                  duties for foreign purchasers, but it is very
banks have become more cautious about                    difficult for foreign buyers to obtain a loan to
project lending. Joint ventures have allowed             fund a purchase of property in Thailand. The
younger developers like Ananda Development               Chinese government has also made it clear that
and Origin Property to replicate the growth              it wants to discourage Chinese nationals from
accomplished by their bigger competitors.                buying overseas properties by implementing
Foreign investors are also seeing this need for          even tougher capital control policies.
capital to penetrate the Thai market.
                                                         Thai buyers still accounted for more than 75%
Unless banks relax their project financing               of transactions for new luxury downtown
criteria, CBRE Research believes this trend will         Bangkok condominium properties based on
continue. With most of the top publicly listed           sales by CBRE in 2017.
developers already having one partner or more,
it will be interesting to see who will be next in
line for a foreign partnership.
© 2018 CBRE, Inc.         2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | BANGKOK               CBRE RESEARCH
                                                    9
REAL ESTATE 2018 ASIA PACIFIC - CBRE Thailand
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

The Bangkok luxury condominium market will                         midtown/suburban areas to make way for
continue to be dominated by Thai purchasers.                       newer developments.
The performance of the downtown luxury
market will depend on Thai buyer’s willingness                     However, there continues to be a great disparity
to pay the increasing asking prices.                               between the downtown and midtown/suburban
                                                                   markets. The midtown/suburban markets still
STEADY LUXURY MARKET WITH                                          faces challenges in clearing off unsold
MID-MARKET SLOWLY REGAINING                                        inventory whereas there is little unsold
PACE                                                               inventory in the downtown area.

In Q4 2017, CBRE Research started to witness                       Most downtown projects will continue to
signs of recovery in the midtown/suburban                          achieve record prices, but not every developer
markets after three consecutive years of decline                   hoping to achieve more than THB 300,000 per
in the number of sales and new launches.                           sq.m. will be successful.

This is also reflected by the Consumer                             The midtown/suburban markets will see mixed
Confidence Index (CCI), which rose for six                         performance. Successful projects will either be
straight months since August 2017 to January                       in locations closer to CBD, existing/under
2018. The index showed that consumers were                         construction mass-transit lines or in locations
more positive about the economy and felt more                      with limited existing supply.
confident to spend money. Developers have
responded quickly with 64,000 new                                  Rapidly rising land prices and scarcity of
condominium units launched at all price                            freehold land in prime downtown locations
ranges and locations in 2017, compared to                          have forced developers to explore and reach out
55,000 units in 2016.                                              to new locations and unexploited land plots for
                                                                   development opportunities.
CBRE Research believes that the outlook for
the end-user driven residential market will be                     Residential developers will continue to
brighter in 2018. Banks have eased lending                         diversify their investments into other property
criteria on mortgage loans, which should                           classes or new customer segments. Relying on
increase the buyer’s ability to borrow money                       only one market will be too risky in this
and access to mortgage finance. This should                        increasingly competitive environment.
help clear up unsold inventory in the

 Figure 1: Newly Launched Condominium Units in Bangkok
 No. of Units                       Midtown/Suburban Areas                            Downtown Area

 100,000

  80,000

  60,000

  40,000

  20,000
                    2011     2012              2013               2014         2015              2016    2017
 Source: CBRE Research

© 2018 CBRE, Inc.           2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | BANGKOK                       CBRE RESEARCH
                                                             10
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

EXPAT ALLOWANCES CONTINUE TO                            NEW MASS TRANSIT LINES OPEN
LIMIT RENTAL GROWTH OF                                  NEW DEVELOPMENT AREAS FOR
APARTMENTS AND SERVICED                                 HOUSING PROJECTS
APARTMENTS
                                                        The demand for housing will recover due to the
Lump sum monthly rentals will remain                    increase in new mortgage lending up by 20% in
unchanged as expatriates’ housing allowances            Q3 2017, the latest data available from the Real
have not increased in over a decade and the             Estate Information Center (REIC). The increase
growth in the number of expatriates is expected         in the mortgage lending will support sales of
to be flat in 2018. However, occupancy for both         housing units. This will give developers
sole-ownership apartments and serviced                  confidence, allowing them to launch more
apartments is expected to remain healthy at             housing projects in line with the recovery of
above 95% and 80%, respectively, due to                 demand.
limited supply.
                                                        On the developer’s side, banks will continue to
Demand for apartments in Bangkok mainly                 be conservative about project lending which
comes from foreign expatriates. Due to the              may reduce the new supply from small
limited supply, the competition will continue           developers.
to come from condominium units for rent.
However, expatriate tenants prefer sole-                Future infrastructure development, especially
ownership apartments over multi-ownership               the mass transit lines, will spur residential
condominiums because of the availability and            development in more areas of the city. The
convenience of maintenance services.                    development of the MRT Orange Line and Pink
                                                        Line will increase the attractiveness of the
The serviced apartment market is driven by two          Northeastern part of Bangkok as a residential
groups: the long-term market which is driven            area. However, home buyers will only decide to
by expatriate employees, especially Japanese,           buy when they see significant progress of the
and the daily rate business which is driven by          construction of this infrastructure.
tourists and business travelers. Serviced
apartment operators cannot rely only on the             Housing supply is going to increase in the
long-term market.                                       outers areas of Bangkok due to the increasing
                                                        land price in central and midtown Bangkok.
CBRE has seen a growing number of serviced
apartments focusing on the daily rate business
by operating more as hotels and the units
become smaller in newer serviced apartment
developments.

© 2018 CBRE, Inc.        2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | BANGKOK               CBRE RESEARCH
                                                  11
OFFICE SECTOR
O F F ICE SECTOR

                    CHANGING WAYS OF WORKING

OVERVIEW                                                developments in good locations such as Bhiraj
                                                        Tower at BITEC, Gaysorn Tower and Ari Hills,
The overall Bangkok office market remained              all of which were 80 - 95% leased shortly after
stable in 2017, with steady demand, limited             completion.
new supply, falling vacancy rates and rising
rents, but with slower growth compared to last          Rents in every location and grade continued to
year.                                                   rise at 4 - 5% Y-o-Y. At the end of 2017, the
                                                        average grade A rent in the CBD rose to THB
In 2017, supply rose by 217,000 sq.m., making           994 per sq.m. per month, a 4.3% increase
the total amount of office space 8.8 million            Y-o-Y.
sq.m. while demand rose by 194,000 sq.m.,
which is the same level as it has been in the           Gaysorn Tower became the most expensive
past four years, resulting in a stable vacancy          building in Bangkok with the highest rental
rate at slightly lower than 8%.                         rate of THB 1,400 per sq.m. per month,
                                                        exceeding the rent in Park Ventures which had
Demand for space in new buildings remained              been at THB 1,300 per sq.m. per month since
strong as shown by the strong leasing                   2013.
performance of recently completed office

© 2018 CBRE, Inc.        2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | BANGKOK               CBRE RESEARCH
                                                  13
O F F ICE SECTOR

Currently, Gaysorn Tower, Park Ventures and Bhiraj Tower at EmQuartier are achieving rental rates
above THB 1,000 sq.m. per month. All these buildings can be accessed by the BTS Light Green Line,
in locations from Chidlom Station to Phrom Phong Station, which office tenants perceived as the
most prime locations in Bangkok. All rental rates mentioned are for small units of 100 to 300 sq.m.

 Figure 2: Bangkok Office Market

 sq.m.                                     Total Supply                        Total Take-up                                Vacancy Rate                    Vacancy Rate
                                                                                                                             F o r e c a st
 10,000,000                                                                                                                                                           50%
  9,000,000                                                                                                                                                           45%
  8,000,000                                                                                                                                                           40%
  7,000,000                                                                                                                                                           35%
  6,000,000                                                                                                                                                           30%
  5,000,000                                                                                                                                                           25%
  4,000,000                                                                                                                                                           20%
  3,000,000                                                                                                                                                           15%
  2,000,000                                                                                                                                                           10%
  1,000,000                                                                                                                                                           5%
            0                                                                                                                                                         0%
                       2011     2012         2013          2014      2015        2016        2017          2018           2019           2020            2021
 Source: CBRE Research

 Figure 3: Average Achieved Rents for Bangkok Office                                Figure 4: New Office Supply by Area
 Space
                         CBD Grade A                       CBD Grade B               sq.m.                               CBD                         Non CBD
 THB /sq.m.
                         Non CBD Grade A                   Non CBD Grade B
                                                                         980                                                                              F o r e c a st
 1,000                                                                              300,000
                                                                        795         250,000
   800          688
                                                                        715         200,000
   600          553                                                     656
                477                                                                 150,000
   400          431
                                                                                    100,000
   200                                                                                  50,000

     0                                                                                       0
         2011         2012    2013     2014         2015      2016     2017
                                                                                                    2011
                                                                                                           2012
                                                                                                                  2013
                                                                                                                         2014
                                                                                                                                2015
                                                                                                                                       2016
                                                                                                                                              2017
                                                                                                                                                     2018
                                                                                                                                                            2019
                                                                                                                                                                   2020
                                                                                                                                                                           2021

 Source: CBRE Research                                                              Source: CBRE Research

© 2018 CBRE, Inc.                          2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | BANGKOK                                                           CBRE RESEARCH
                                                                            14
O F F ICE SECTOR

OUTLOOK                                                  flexible as tenants do not have to commit on
Looking forward over the next two years, the             long-term lease, but only to membership fee.
overall market condition is expected to be the
same as 2017, with vacancy rates falling as              The co-working space trend is emerging in
space from new office completions will be less           Bangkok. In the second half of 2017, CBRE
than the expected net take-up of 200,000 sq.m.           leased approximately 18,000 sq.m. of office
per year, but rents are expected to rise more            space to co-working space operators across the
slowly.                                                  CBD. In 2018, four international players will
                                                         open their first centers in six locations in grade
About 584,000 sq.m. of office space was under            A office buildings in Bangkok.
construction across Bangkok which is
scheduled to be completed between 2018 and               Besides international players, local operators
2020. 200,000 sq.m. will be completed in 2018,           like HUBBA also have plans to open more
100,000 sq.m. in 2019 and 250,000 sq.m. in               locations in 2018 with sizes ranging from 1,000
2020.                                                    to 4,000 sq.m., which is bigger than any of their
                                                         existing centers.
If construction starts on more projects in 2018,
then the market condition after 2020 will                Not only start-ups are using co-working space,
change.                                                  but some multinational companies are putting
                                                         their staff in co-working space. This is partly a
Developers have acquired sites where they plan           result from changes in international
to build two million sq.m. of office space, but          accounting rules where leases now have to be
construction has not yet started. More                   accounted for on the balance sheet.
developers have acquired sites to build mixed-
use complexes with an office component.                  Landlords need to design buildings to support
                                                         more people per sq.m. Besides column-free
Demand for office space has been reasonably              floor plate, other core specifications and
healthy over the last few years despite a slow           supporting facilities include a sophisticated air-
economy. CBRE expects companies will                     conditioning system with greater temperature
continue to expands, but as rents rise, more             control, faster more efficient lifts, more toilets
and more tenants will seek to reduce                     per floor and supporting retail.
occupation costs. We have seen tenants started
to apply the 360 workplace strategy, where they          With all this being said, rent is still the most
use less space to fit more people. This can be           important factor for tenants when choosing
done in a column-free floor plate which allows           their new office premises, followed by the
them to fit out their space in a more creative           location and how close the office building is to
way.                                                     a mass transit station. The last factor, which
                                                         has become more important, is to win the
Some tenants will give up their meeting rooms            talent war by providing a working environment
and there are some tenants considering leasing           that allows companies to attract and retain the
co-working space. This is not only cost saving           best employees. This can be achieved by
from renting smaller space, but also saving              applying 360 workplace strategy supported by
capital spending on fit-out cost. It is more             the right building specifications.

© 2018 CBRE, Inc.         2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | BANGKOK                 CBRE RESEARCH
                                                   15
RETAIL SECTOR
RETAIL SECTOR

            CLICKS DRIVING THE REVOLUTION
                       IN BRICKS

With Thailand’s Consumer Confidence Index                 Occupancy has been positive since the second
maintaining its positive trend since the second           half of 2017 due to a recovering economy and
half of 2017, the retail sector is expected to see        some shopping centers reopening space after
growth in 2018. With this being said, the retail          renovation.
property sector still faces challenges from high
consumer debt, low wage growth and the                    There is at least 500,000 sq.m. of new supply
growth of e-commerce.                                     planned where developers have acquired sites
                                                          and said they would include a retail
As of Q4 2017, there was a total of 7.36 million          component, but where construction has not yet
sq.m. of retail net lettable area, with new               started and exact details have not been
supply increasing by about only 100,000 sq.m.             released.
since the previous year. There will be major
increases in supply, with nearly 500,000 sq.m.            Thai retail landlords will still focus on
of net lettable area of retail supply under               renovating and, in some cases, expanding their
construction, of which about 350,000 sq.m. is             existing shopping malls to improve their
expected to be completed in 2018. The major               competitive position.
upcoming projects due for completion this year
are ICONSIAM and the second IKEA at
CentralPlaza WestGate.

© 2018 CBRE, Inc.          2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | BANGKOK             CBRE RESEARCH
                                                     17
RETAIL SECTOR

The biggest theme for the retail sector                      The future is still uncertain, but e-commerce
continues to be the growth of e-commerce. In                 will change Thai retail property. If weaker
2017, the total revenue in the Thai e-commerce               retailers and malls cannot reinvent themselves,
market is expected to reach THB 2.8 trillion, an             they will become obsolete.
increase of 9.86% Y-o-Y, which is still less than
1% of total retail sales. In other countries with            The retail mall is not dead and people will still
developed e-commerce, online sales now                       want to visit retail stores, but the way that they
account for between 10 - 18% of total retail                 shop and the preferred format will change.
sales. Many retailers are reacting to                        This will have the biggest change on the retail
e-commerce by adding an online channel so                    property market since the evolution of modern
that they can have an online and offline                     retail with the advent of the department store
omni-channel offering.                                       more than 100 years ago.

Globally e-commerce is the biggest threat to
traditional retail malls and landlords are
looking for solutions to compete, with a focus
on creating experiences that cannot be
replicated online.

 Figure 5: Bangkok Retail Market
 Net Area (sq.m.)           Total Supply               Total Take-up                  Occupancy Rate          Occupancy Rate
 8,000,000                                                                                                           100%

 7,000,000                                                                                                           98%

 6,000,000                                                                                                           96%

 5,000,000                                                                                                           94%

 4,000,000                                                                                                           92%

 3,000,000                                                                                                           90%

 2,000,000                                                                                                           88%

 1,000,000                                                                                                           86%
                    2011     2012          2013         2014           2015           2016             2017
  Source: CBRE Research

© 2018 CBRE, Inc.            2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | BANGKOK                           CBRE RESEARCH
                                                      18
INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS
       SECTOR
INDU STRIAL & LOGISTICS SECTOR

      DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION LEADS TO
               BETTER LOGISTICS

In 2017, the overall Thailand industrial                Thailand is the largest automotive producer in
property market was stagnant due to weak                South East Asia and ranked 12th globally, but is
demand from manufacturers wanting to set up             likely to see a limited growth in car production
new factories.                                          in 2018, according to the Federation of Thai
                                                        Industries (FTI).
According to the Bank of Thailand, Foreign
Direct Investment (FDI) in the first eleven             Total Serviced Industrial Land Plot (SILP) sales
months to the manufacturing sector rose by              in CBRE Research survey basket in 2017 were
6.8% Y-o-Y to USD 1.2 billion. With the total           1,700 rai, an increase of 35.2% Y-o-Y. Ready-
FDI of USD 7.2 billion, nearly 40% came from            built Factories (RBF)’s vacancy rates as of Q4
Japanese and Taiwanese investors, whereas               2017 remained high at nearly 30%, with rents
ASEAN investors accounted for 22%.                      remaining flat.

The car industry will be critical to future             Thailand’s industrial & logistics sector is
growth in demand for serviced industrial land           continuing to grow with the increase in
plots and ready-built factories.                        e-commerce leading to greater demand.

© 2018 CBRE, Inc.        2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | BANGKOK                 CBRE RESEARCH
                                                  20
INDU STRIAL & LOGISTICS SECTOR

E-commerce sales have shown continued growth across the world with the improvement in last-mile
delivery services. Top e-commerce firms have been successful in boosting e-commerce sales by
lowering the delivery costs and modern logistics properties are key element in this delivery supply
chain.

 Figure 6: Net Flow of Foreign Direct Investment to Manufacturing Sector
 USD million
  6,000

  5,000

  4,000

  3,000

  2,000

  1,000

       0
                   2008        2009         2010          2011         2012        2013       2014         2015        2016          2017
 Source: Bank of Thailand

 Figure 7: Online Retail Sales By Country, 2015-2016
USD Bllion                                            2015                                       2016

 900
               783.8
 800

 700       672.0

 600

 500
                               393.9
 400                      341.9
 300
                                       137.8 147.4
 200

 100                                                 32.7 38.3     14.1 19.6   11.9 17.5   4.1 5.6      3.2 5.3     3.6 4.1      0.4 0.5
   0
             China           USA          Japan      South Korea    Thailand   Malaysia    Vietnam      Indonesia   Singapore    Philippines
 Source: Electronic Transactions Development Agency
 Note: Latest available data is from 2016

© 2018 CBRE, Inc.                        2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | BANGKOK                                 CBRE RESEARCH
                                                                         21
CAPITAL MARKETS
CAPITAL M ARKETS

                    CBD LAND PRICES SPIKE

Demand for prime sites has remained strong              Last year, Raimon Land signed a 30-year lease
with developers continuing to acquire sites for         for a 6-rai site on Ploenchit Road for an office
all types of development. Land prices have              development, Dusit Thani has renewed its lease
dramatically increased especially in the most           for a 24-rai site on Rama IV Road with the
prime locations and along mass transit lines.           Crown Property Bureau of Thailand and will
The biggest land sale in Thai history was the           redevelop the site together with CPN.
recent acquisition of the British Embassy site
by the CPN/Hongkong Land joint venture at               The lack of arm’s length transactions for
GBP 420 million and a record price paid of THB          income producing properties make it difficult
3.1 million per square wah for a development            to provide comment on the movement of
site on Soi Langsuan by SC Asset.                       yields, but we know that there is strong interest
                                                        in any quality income producing property, but
The Treasury Department of the Finance                  few vendors are willing to sell.
Ministry reported land prices rising by double
digits, especially in downtown Bangkok. While           The proposed new land tax that penalizes
there was a 12.5% Y-o-Y increase as of Q4 2017          owners of unutilized land has been postponed.
in the REIC’s undeveloped land price index.             The expected date for the tax to be effective has
Not only freehold sites but more leasehold land         not been finalized nor have the exact details of
plots are also in demand.                               the tax.

© 2018 CBRE, Inc.        2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | BANGKOK                CBRE RESEARCH
                                                  23
CAPITAL M ARKETS

FOCUSING ON DIVERSIFIED                                                                                                              mixed-use project called Supalai Icon on the
INVESTMENTS                                                                                                                          recently acquired former Australian Embassy,
                                                                                                                                     an 8-rai site on Sathorn Road. Pruksa Real
Developers are seeking diversification of their                                                                                      Estate diversified to non-residential
investment portfolio to ensure multiple                                                                                              development by developing a hospital in the
revenue streams. Residential developers are                                                                                          Saphan Khwai area.
now looking at developing income producing
office, hotel and retail properties.                                                                                                 Residential developers broadened their
                                                                                                                                     product line from mass to luxury
Origin Property announced plans for office,                                                                                          developments. Pruksa Real Estate and LPN
hotel and serviced apartment developments                                                                                            Development widely-known for their
while Ananda Development is planning a                                                                                               accomplishments in the mass market have now
mixed-use development comprising retail and a                                                                                        begun to offer more luxurious products.
serviced apartment on Ratchadaphisek Road as                                                                                         Similarly, Origin Property announced its
well as a hotel development on Sukhumvit Soi 8.                                                                                      acquisition of the Park 24, a high-end
Supalai reported that they would build a                                                                                             condominium project.

 Figure 8: Government Bond Yields, 2011 - 2017
Yield                                                1 Yr Gov. Bond                                                        5 Yr Gov. Bond                                                        10 Yr Gov. Bond
6

5

4

3

2

1
                                                          Sep-12
    Mar-11

                                        Mar-12

                                                                            Mar-13

                                                                                                                Mar-14

                                                                                                                                                    Mar-15

                                                                                                                                                                                        Mar-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Mar-17
                      Sep-11
                               Dec-11

                                                                   Dec-12

                                                                                     Jun-13
                                                                                              Sep-13
                                                                                                       Dec-13

                                                                                                                         Jun-14
                                                                                                                                  Sep-14
                                                                                                                                           Dec-14

                                                                                                                                                             Jun-15
                                                                                                                                                                      Sep-15
                                                                                                                                                                               Dec-15

                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jun-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sep-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Dec-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jun-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sep-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Dec-17
             Jul-11

                                                 Jul-12

 Source: Bank of Thailand

               Developers are seeking diversification of their
               investment portfolio to ensure multiple revenue
               streams.

© 2018 CBRE, Inc.                                                  2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | BANGKOK                                                                                                            CBRE RESEARCH
                                                                                                                         24
RISKS &
RISKS & OPPORTUNITIES
        OPPORTUNITIES
RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

CBRE Research expects a number of opportunities and risks to arise in 2018 as outlined
below.

OPPORTUNITIES                                           RISKS

➢ Economic growth with growing consumer                 ➢ Overpriced land making developments
  confidence leads to improved demand for                 unfeasible.
  all types of property.
                                                        ➢ Lack of affordability in the mass residential
➢ Tourism growth drives hospitality and                   market.
  retail.
                                                        ➢ Risk of oversupply in many sectors if most
➢ Infrastructure expansion acts as a catalyst             planned new developments go ahead at the
  for property development.                               same time.

➢ Banks ease criteria on mortgages.                     ➢ Political uncertainty around planned
                                                          elections.
➢ Incoming foreign investment in property
  development joint ventures.                           ➢ Uncertain in tax policy

➢ Use of new technology by property                     ➢ Possible rises in interest rates.
  companies.

➢ Development opportunities in the EEC.
© 2018 CBRE, Inc.         2018 ASIA PACIFIC REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK | BANGKOK              CBRE RESEARCH
                                                   26
For more information about this regional major report, please contact:
RESEARCH

Executive Director                                                  Manager                                                    Manager
james.pitchon@cbre.co.th                                            thatchanan.siddhijai@cbre.co.th                            rathawat.kuvijitrsuwan@cbre.co.th

Senior Analyst                                                      Analyst                                                    Analyst
tornbonkot.patcharaprakiti@cbre.co.th                               malin.phlernjai@cbre.co.th                                 pakapon.utaobin@cbre.co.th

Analyst                                                             Analyst                                                    Analyst
pichamon.chomanan@cbre.co.th                                        korn.supappoj@cbre.co.th                                   pattaratorn.pornsirikul@cbre.co.th

Analyst                                                             Analyst
pobporn.svetasobhana@cbre.co.th                                     khanachai.kitisorayut@cbre.co.th

For more information regarding global research, please contact:

Global Head of Research                                             Global Chief Economist
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Head of Research, Asia Pacific                                      Head of Research, EMEA                                     Head of Research, Americas
henry.chin@cbre.com.hk                                              jos.tromp@cbre.com                                         spencer.levy@cbre.com

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