CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADERSHIP RUNNERS & RIDERS - Cicero Group
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CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADERSHIP RUNNERS & RIDERS
In December 2018, Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence in her leadership of the Conservative Party. A Conservative Party
CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADERSHIP RUNNERS & RIDERS
Leadership contest will take place in the coming days and weeks if the Withdrawal Agreement passes through the House of Commons –
as Theresa May has vowed to resign before the next phase of Brexit negotiations – or if the Deal does not pass but May views her position
as untenable. As it stands, there are some obvious leadership candidates – such as poll-topping Boris Johnson. However there are also
“ones to watch” who are the wider pack of candidates on the heels of the frontrunners; “bit too soon” candidates who are considered
rising stars in the Party and may be frontrunners next time around; “bridge candidates” who are most likely to be considered as relatively
short-term solutions for the Party; and “king makers” who would not seek the leadership but whose backing is seen as critical.
It is therefore a very open field, with no single candidate regarded as the natural successor to May. A leadership contest will be viewed
through the prism of Brexit and there is a widely held view that the next leader will be a Brexiteer, or at least a Remainer who has fully
embraced Brexit. However, the candidates who have given interviews and written editorials so far have been keen to focus on their
domestic credentials - and not just Brexit.
A leadership contest is not inevitable however, but is becoming increasingly likely following recent Brexit events. YouGov polling from
mid-March found that the proportion of voters who want May to stand down as Leader has not changed since March 2018 however,
when asked to choose between her and Boris Johnson, the former Foreign Secretary came out top. The poll also found that 66% (+10%)
think May is doing badly with Conservative voting intention down by 5%.
In light of these events, it is important to remember that the process for choosing the Conservative Leader takes place in two phases:
in the first phase, the parliamentary Conservative Party holds a series of votes in which the least popular candidate is eliminated until
only two remain; the second phase sees the final two candidates put to a vote of the entire membership of the Conservative Party on a
one-member one-vote basis. To succeed, a candidate must therefore have both strong support among their Parliamentary colleagues
and widespread appeal among the party grassroots.
The Party leadership process can therefore be complicated and arcane. With strong personalities making manoeuvres to position
themselves in the strongest position when a leadership contest occurs in the near future, the document sets out how the process could
work and who could succeed to become the next Party Leader.
Foreword by: Elizabeth Tomlin, Account Manager
Cicero Group | 1
THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADERSHIP ELECTION PROCESS
The
The PM remains rules for Getting on
1 Trigger 2 in post
3 selecting
4 the ballot
candiates
Theresa May declares her departure During the leadership election In the event the PM resigns, In 2016 candidates seeking to
date, triggering a leadership process, it’s most likely that the Chairman of the 1922 Committee contest the election needed the
contest. Prime Minister would remain in Sir Graham Brady MP will announce support of at least two Conservative
post – as David Cameron did after the procedure as agreed by the MPs to get onto the ballot paper. A
resigning in 2016. 1922 Executive Committee and new leader is ‘anointed’ if only one
the timetable to be followed – this candidate puts their name forward.
provides considerable flexibility. Given the current fractures in the
Conservative MPs will select, via a Conservative Party, a single unity
ballot, two candidates to present to candidate seems highly unlikely.
the membership and it is possible
the initial ballot could be completed
within 24 hours.
Consulting A new
5 Elimination 6 The run-off 7 members 8 leader
If more than two MPs are nominated, Subsequent ballots are held until Those two nominees are then put to The result is then announced, and
a secret ballot of Conservative only two names remain. During the a ballot of the wider Conservative the winner becomes Party Leader
MPs is held immediately following 2016, 2005, and 2001 Leadership Party membership*. Party members and Prime Minister.
the closing date for nominations. contests ballots took place on vote, on a “one member one vote”
The person who receives the Tuesdays and Thursdays. This is not basis for their preferred candidate.
fewest votes on each occasion is however a requirement, and the How quickly the ballot can be
eliminated. process could be condensed. completed is a matter of logistics:
it’s been customary to allow 5 to 9
weeks, but it is not a requirement.
Politically it is also unlikely to be
desirable: that would mean three
months of any implementation
period with the current PM guiding *Although in 2016, Theresa May and
Andrea Leadsom’s leadership election
negotiations, or three months of an was not put to the membership due to
extension used up. Leadsom withdrawing from the race
leaving May as the only candidate.
Cicero Group | 2
Conservative Members’ view on who should be the next Leader of the Party
Boris Johnson
Betting odds: 9/2
the 2016 referendum:
How candidates voted in
Dominic Raab
Betting odds: 7/1
LEAVE
Michael Gove
Betting odds: 9/2
REMAIN
Jeremy Hunt
Betting odds: 6/1
Sajid Javid
Betting odds: 9/1
David Davis
LATEST POLLING OF CONSERVATIVE LEADER FRONTRUNNERS
Betting odds: 40/1
Amber Rudd
Betting odds: 28/1
Figures based on: Conservative Home - Who should be the next leader of the Conservative Party after Theresa May? Odds from: Sky Bet.com
Andrea Leadsom
(Not polled)
Betting odds: 28/1
Cicero Group | 3
THE FRONTRUNNERS
One of the leading architects of Brexit, Johnson is the current bookmakers’ favourite and is still seen as a darling of the party
grassroots. He’d be hard to beat in a vote of the membership, but there are doubts about his support in Parliament. Johnson has
argued the Conservative response to the rise in popularity of Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn has been timid. Previously stating
Boris Johnson MP that the party cannot “caper insincerely on socialist territory”, the former Mayor of London has made the case for free markets
22.21%* and we can expect Johnson to take a less interventionist approach to the regulatory landscape. A vocal supporter of low taxation,
Betting odds: 9/2 he has stated that “no-one, rich or poor” should pay more than 50% of their income tax, and property based taxes including
council tax, stamp duty and business rates should be “bundled together” and spent at a local level. At the same time, a sense
of unpredictability would loom large over Johnson’s leadership and he would not be shy at considering or scrapping radical or
ambitious policy proposals.
Elected in 2010, Raab is one of the younger generation of senior Brexiteers. His resignation as Brexit Secretary enhanced his profile
and standing with party members. He is someone that Johnson supporters may swing behind if their man falls out. Another
Dominic Raab MP
free marketeer, he has said the Conservative party needs to be pro-enterprise and focus on social mobility after Brexit. Since his
18.12%*
departure from cabinet, he has advocated policies such as raising the National Insurance threshold to increase disposable income,
Betting odds: 7/1 pro-competition reforms in banking, broadband, and energy markets (but opposes price caps), scrapping tariffs on imports to
drive down the cost of living, and bringing back apprenticeships for 14 to 16 year olds.
A leading Brexit supporter, but unlike some Gove has stuck it out in Government. He has performed well as Environment Secretary,
has ‘modernising’ credentials and is an impressive orator. He could win support from across the party. Gove’s time in Government
has earnt him a reputation for being an effective Government Minister. While his policies, especially during his time as Education
Michael Gove MP Secretary often split opinion, most in Westminster acknowledge Gove’s approach as Education, Justice, and Environment
14.86%* Secretary has been to attain real change. He is adept at overturning Whitehall Departments into submission, and is considered to
THE FRONTRUNNERS
Betting odds: 9/2 have a firm grip over the political machine. Some have commented that Gove views himself as a revolutionary, and we can expect
him to take the same approach if ever in the top job. During his short-lived bid for the leadership in 2016, Gove pledged a hard line
on immigration, “radical” action on executive pay and tax avoidance, and argued the Brexit vote was an opportunity for reform
across departments.
Like Javid, Hunt voted Remain but has since swung behind Brexit. With over eight years in Cabinet, latterly as Foreign Secretary,
party members will see him as having the experience for the top job. He became the longest serving Health Secretary in British
Jeremy Hunt MP history after over five years in the role, but that experience might mean Labour consider him preferable to campaign against
owing to their popularity on health as an issue amongst voters. Looking beyond Brexit, he has called for Britain to “act as an
6.75%*
invisible chain linking together the democracies of the world”, citing connections through the Commonwealth, the USA and
Betting odds: 6/1 Europe. He has praised Singapore for its transformation from a “tiny territory devoid of natural resources into the worldʼs eighth
richest country”, but fallen well short of advocating a low tax, low regulation model for Britain after its exit from the EU.
*Figures based on: Conservative Home - Who should be the next leader of the Conservative Party after Theresa May? Cicero Group | 4
THE FRONTRUNNERS
Javid has one of the top jobs in Cabinet, a compelling personal backstory and is a Remain-voter who has embraced Brexit, giving
him widespread potential appeal within the party. Long touted as a future leader, Javid has billed himself as a “blue collar”
Conservative. A political shape-shifter, he has championed free markets and promoted fiscal conservativism, at the same time
Sajid Javid MP
as calling for more money to be spent on social housing and is an advocate of modernisation and diversification in the party.
5.46%*
Given his time as Secretary of State at Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, this would be an issue high up
Betting odds: 9/1 his agenda. His tenure as Home Secretary has somewhat been overshadowed by the migrants entering the UK by boat over the
winter, while the decision to strip Shamima Begum of her British citizenship earned him criticism in Conservative circles for being
opportunist.
David Davis has come to be known as a strong advocate of the civil liberties agenda, arguing against increase Government
surveillance, the undue retention of personal data and prolonged detention. Regarded as an independent Conservative thinker,
David Davis MP
Davis has also spoken of the importance of the Conservatives broadening their cross-party appeal, including emphasising
2.88%*
support for working class families and delivering on social reform. A very experienced Minister, Davis has held numerous roles
Betting odds: 40/1 between 1990 - 2018 both in Government and in Opposition. He also stood against David Cameron in the 2005 Conservative Party
leadership contest and therefore could be tempted to run again.
Rudd has stated she does not intend to run for the leadership and it’s been reported she could be the “king-maker” for a Remainer
candidate. Nevertheless she remains a frontrunner should she change her mind and decide to stand, due to her ability to build
Amber Rudd MP bridges, perhaps with a Brexiteer running mate. However, her standing was damaged somewhat by her resignation as Home
2.73%* Secretary over Windrush, and there are question marks over her appeal to the party grassroots. Regarded as a one-nation
THE FRONTRUNNERS
Betting odds: 28/1 conservative and centrist in the party – who has argued that “the state [is] a power for good” – she is another who is yet to set out
her election stall. She has however argued that the UK should use a form of digital identification card to be used to access public
services.
As a staunch Eurosceptic, Leadsom is seen as being on the right of the Party – particularly on issues such as taxes, deregulation and
Andrea Leadsom MP
smaller Government. She would likely advocate the UK pursuing regulatory divergence from the EU, to increase the UK’s post-Brexit
(Not polled)
competitiveness. Although not polled by ConHome, she could be a “dark horse contender” and appeal to Brexiteers in the Party and
Betting odds: 28/1 the membership. Leadsom stood against May in 2016 and could be tempted to stand again.
*Figures based on: Conservative Home - Who should be the next leader of the Conservative Party after Theresa May? Cicero Group | 5
CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADERSHIP RUNNERS AND RIDERS
ONES TO WATCH
CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADERSHIP RUNNERS & RIDERS
This group is the wider ‘pack’ on the heels of the frontrunners. All but one (James Cleverly) currently or have previously served in Cabinet, though mostly in more mid-
ranking roles. All were also elected in 2010 or later, meaning they represent a comparatively ‘new’ generation in the Tory party.
NAME POSITION ANALYSIS
A highly ambitious figure, McVey burnished her credentials with the party grassroots by resigning
as Work and Pensions Secretary over the PM’s Brexit deal. She is firmly on the right of the party,
Esther McVey MP Backbencher
has a working-class background and is a former TV presenter. However, there are question marks
over the breadth of her appeal.
Cleverly has openly stated that he would like to be Prime Minister one day and he has taken on
Conservative Party Deputy a challenging role as Tory Deputy Chair, which sees him regularly have to speak for the party on
James Cleverly MP Chairman difficult issues. This has built up his profile, while his pragmatic Brexiteer credentials could also
make him an interesting contender to watch.
Truss is clearly ambitious and has recently been positioning herself as a staunch free-marketeer,
Chief Secretary to the while also treading a careful line on Brexit. She is also an effective social media communicator.
Liz Truss MP Treasury However, having been seen as unsuccessful as Justice Secretary, doubts would remain as to her
suitability for the top job.
Hancock has steered the middle ground on Brexit and is undoubtedly ambitious. He is growing
Health and Social Care his public profile as Health Secretary and has a good understanding of digital campaigning. While
Matthew Hancock MP Secretary he may not have the ‘clout’ in the party to be a viable contender this time around, he could run to
enhance his standing and secure a senior post.
International Development
As a Brexiteer from the younger generation, Cabinet Minister and reservist in the Royal Navy, with
Penny Mordaunt MP Secretary & Minister for
a strong personality, Mordaunt could be a very interesting candidate to keep an eye on.
Women & Equalities
Patel is another highly ambitious Brexiteer from the Conservative right. Her resignation from
Priti Patel MP Backbencher Cabinet over unofficial meetings with Israeli government officials may have cost her ground with
rivals, but she may still look to mount a leadership bid.
Seen as a centrist Conservative reformer, Tugendhat has largely defined his political interests
Chair of the Foreign Affairs around foreign policy, including serving as Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee. However,
Tom Tugendhat MP Select Committee in a domestic UK context, he has called for greater investment in UK infrastructure and
supporting the continued rollout of high-skilled apprenticeships.
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‘BRIDGE’ CANDIDATE
CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADERSHIP RUNNERS & RIDERS
This candidate is most likely to be considered as a relatively short term solution for the party, in the event that they look to a ‘caretaker’ leader who could serve to
complete the Brexit process or deal with its immediate aftermath, before handing on to someone from a younger generation.
NAME POSITION ANALYSIS
Theresa May’s de facto deputy could be well placed in the event that the Conservatives seek a
David Lidington MP Minister for the Cabinet Office safe pair of hands to serve as an ‘interim’ Prime Minister to see through the remainder of the
Brexit process, before handing over to a longer term successor.
‘BIT TOO SOON’ CANDIDATES
These are rising stars within the party, for whom it may be too soon to mount a serious leadership bid. However it is not impossible that one or two of these could take
soundings over a possible bid, with a view to raising their profile for a future more serious campaign and securing a senior job in the meantime.
NAME POSITION ANALYSIS
Another army veteran, Mercer has been an outspoken critic of the current leadership and an
Johnny Mercer MP Backbencher effective campaigner on mental health. However, he looks likely to be a Boris-backer next time
around and may be deferring his ambitions to a future contest.
While Stewart has been an MP since 2010, he has had a more gradual rise than some of his
contemporaries and has not yet reached Cabinet. He is an increasingly prominent media
Rory Stewart MP Justice Minister
spokesperson for the Government and has his admirers, but he may not have the profile for a
serious leadership run at this stage.
Atkins is talked up by party modernisers as a possible future PM. She does not yet enjoy significant
Home Office Minister &
Victoria Atkins MP public profile, but holds dual ministerial responsibilities and could well have ambitions for the
Minister for Women
future.
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KING-MAKER CANDIDATES
CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADERSHIP RUNNERS & RIDERS
These candidates are regularly quoted in leadership speculation – and may consider a bid – but their real intention may more realistically be to position themselves as
king-makers who would then prosper under the next leader.
NAME POSITION ANALYSIS
While Williamson has been spoken of as a contender himself, he is another who may favour a
king-maker role. He fulfilled this for Theresa May in 2016 when he yielded significant influence
Gavin Williamson MP Defence Secretary as then PPS to Prime Minister David Cameron. He has subsequently been rewarded with posts
as Chief Whip and Defence Secretary and could hope to rise further still if he helps make the next
leader.
Rees-Mogg has previously been considered a frontrunner in a future Tory leadership contest,
however he is not expected to stand and instead position himself as a king-maker to another
candidate. An unashamed free marketeer and fiscal-hawk, in the past he has advocated for
Chair of the European keeping taxes low, and has called for the abolition of stamp duty. He has also called for more
Jacob Rees-Mogg MP Research Group action to be taken on monopolies, stating that banking, energy and insurance markets too
often penalise loyalty and the state’s role should be to “back the consumer not producer”.
He is also a Social Conservative on the issues of abortion and same-sex marriage, but has
decreed that these laws ‘are unlikely to change’.
CONTACT US
If you would like to speak to the Cicero team to discuss the issues raised in this document, or how we can support your organisation
and its public affairs objectives in 2019, please do contact Tom Frackowiak:
Tom Frackowiak
Executive Director - Public Affairs
+44 (0)20 7297 5966
Tom.Frackowiak@cicero-group.com
Cicero Group | 8
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