Core Political Data Ipsos Poll - October 21, 2021

Ipsos Poll

 Core Political Data October 21, 2021

 1 ‒ © Ipsos

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Ipsos Poll

 Core Political Data
 These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted October 20-21, 2021. A sample of 1,005 Americans ages 18+ were
 interviewed online for this survey.

 This included 435 Democrats, 406 Republicans, and 80 independents

 The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus
 or minus the following percentage points:

 3.5 for All Adults, 5.4 for Democrats, 5.5 for Republicans, and 12.5 for independents

 The data from this survey was weighted to the U.S. current population data using Gender, Age, Education, Ethnicity, and Region

 ❖ Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls
 ❖ All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and
 measurement error
 ❖ Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent
 ❖ Where figures do not sum to 100, this is because of rounding
 2 ‒ © Ipsos

For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix

All Adult Americans

 Most Important Problem Facing America
 In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?

 Economy, unemployment, and jobs 23%
 Public health, disease, and illness 13%
 Immigration 9%
 Healthcare system 9%
 Inequality and discrimination 8%
 Environment and climate 8%
 Crime or corruption 7%
 Morality 5%
 Education 4%
 Terrorism and extremism 3%
 War and foreign conflicts 1%
 Energy issues 1%
 Other 9%
 Don't know 2%
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* Starting with 2/4/21 wave, “system” was added to “Healthcare” ,“extremism” was added to “Terrorism”, and “corruption” was added to “Crime”. “Public health, disease, and illness” and “Inequality and discrimination” were added as new issues. “Economy, generally” and “Unemployment/lack of jobs” were
combined to create “Economy, unemployment, and jobs”

0%
 10%
 20%
 30%
 40%
 50%
 60%
 70%
 80%
 100%
 500%
 900%
 1300%
 1700%

 2012
 2100%
 2500%
 2900%

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 3300%
 3700%
 4100%
 4500%
 4900%
 5300%
 5700%
 6100%
 All Adult Americans

 2013
 6500%
 6900%
 7300%
 7700%
 8100%
 8500%
 8900%
 9300%
 9700%
 10100%
 10500%
 10900%
 11300%
 11700%

 2014
 12100%
 12500%
 12900%
 13300%
 13700%
 14100%
 14500%
 14900%
 15300%
 Economy, unemployment, and jobs

 15700%

and “Inequality and discrimination” and "Public health, disease, and illness” were added as new issues.
 16100%
 16500%
 16900%
 17300%
 17700%
 18100%

 2015
 18500%
 18900%
 19300%
 19700%
 20100%
 20500%
 20900%
 21300%
 21700%
 22100%
 22500%
 22900%
 23300%

 2016
 23700%
 24100%
 Public Health

 24500%
 24900%
 25300%
 25700%
 26100%
 26500%
 26900%
 27300%
 27700%
 28100%
 28500%
 28900%
 2017

 29300%
 29700%
 30100%
 30500%
 30900%
 Most Important Problem Facing America

 31300%
 31700%
 32100%
 In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?

 32500%
 32900%
 33300%
 Immigration

 33700%
 34100%
 34500%
 2018

 34900%
 35300%
 35700%
 36100%
 36500%
 36900%
 37300%
 37700%
 38100%
 38500%
 38900%
 39300%
 39700%
 40100%
 2019

 40500%
 40900%
 41300%
 41700%
 42100%
 42500%
 42900%
 43300%
 43700%
 44100%
 44500%
 Healthcare system

 44900%
 45300%
 2020

 45700%
 46100%
 46500%
 46900%
 47300%
 47700%
 48100%
 48500%
 48900%
 49300%
 49700%
 50100%
 50500%
 50900%
 2021

*Prior to February 2021, “Economy, generally” and “Unemployment/lack of jobs” were asked separately, results on chart display the sum of both issues through that date. Have since been combined to create “Economy, unemployment, and jobs”. Other changes include “system” being added to “healthcare”,

 51300%
 51700%
 52100%

By Party ID

 Most Important Problem Facing America
 In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?

 Democrats Republicans Independents
 Economy, unemployment, and jobs 21% 25% 25%
 War and foreign conflicts 1% 1% 0%
 Immigration 2% 16% 14%
 Terrorism and extremism 2% 5% 0%
 Healthcare system 11% 6% 10%
 Public health, disease, and illness 17% 12% 7%
 Energy issues 1% 1% 0%
 Morality 3% 6% 9%
 Education 3% 4% 5%
 Crime or corruption 4% 9% 3%
 Environment and climate 12% 4% 7%
 Inequality and discrimination 14% 2% 4%
 Other 6% 10% 13%
 Don’t know 2% 1% 4%

 5 ‒ © Ipsos

* Starting with 2/4/21 wave, “system” was added to “Healthcare” ,“extremism” was added to “Terrorism”, and “corruption” was added to “Crime”. “Public health, disease, and illness” and “Inequality and discrimination” were added as new issues. “Economy, generally” and “Unemployment/lack of jobs” were
combined to create “Economy, unemployment, and jobs”

All Adult Americans

 Joe Biden’s Weekly Approval
 Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as President (previously
 president-elect)?

 Total Approve

 48%
 46%

 Total Disapprove

2020 2021
 6 ‒ © Ipsos

By Party ID

 Partisan Biden Approval
 Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as President (previously
 president-elect)?

 82%

 34%

 12%

2020 2021
 Democrats Republicans Independents

 7 ‒ © Ipsos

All Adult Americans

What Biden’s Priorities Should be
What do you want Joe Biden to prioritize? Choose the top 2 issues that are most important to you (% Yes)

 The U.S. economy 40%

 Coronavirus/COVID-19 27%

 Employment and jobs 25%

 Immigration 18%

 Unifying the country 16%

 The environment 16%

 Corruption 13%

 Racial inequality 12%

 Taxation 9%

 International Trade 1%

 Other 6%

 8 ‒ © Ipsos

By Party ID

What Biden’s Priorities Should be
What do you want Joe Biden to prioritize? Choose the top 2 issues that are most important to you (% Yes)
 The U.S. economy

 Other Employment and jobs
 Democrats Republicans Independents
 The U.S. economy 30% 55% 38%
 Employment and
 22% 21% 34%
 jobs
 Racial Inequality International trade International
 2% 2% 0%
 trade
 Taxation 8% 10% 7%

 Corruption 8% 16% 21%

 Coronavirus/COVID-19 Taxation The environment 27% 4% 22%

 Immigration 7% 35% 12%
 Unifying the
 18% 14% 22%
 country
 Coronavirus/COVI
 40% 16% 20%
 Unifying the country Corruption D-19
 Racial Inequality 21% 5% 3%

 Immigration The environment Other 4% 8% 7%

 Democrats Republicans Independents
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All Adult Americans

Approval of Biden’s Handling of the Country’s Issues
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling the following issues? (Total Approval)

 Coronavirus/COVID-19 52%

 The environment 47%

 Employment and jobs 44%

 Racial inequality 44%

 The U.S. economy 43%

 Unifying the country 43%

 International trade 40%

 Taxation 40%

 Immigration 36%

 Corruption 34%

 10 ‒ © Ipsos

By Party ID

Approval of Biden’s Handling of the Country’s Issues
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling the following issues? (Total Approval)
 The U.S. economy

 Racial Inequality Employment and jobs
 Democrats Republicans Independents
 The U.S. economy 73% 12% 46%
 Employment and
 76% 14% 40%
 jobs
 Coronavirus/COVID-19 International trade International
 70% 14% 31%
 trade
 Taxation 69% 12% 37%

 Corruption 62% 10% 23%

 The environment 76% 22% 41%
 Unifying the country Taxation
 Immigration 65% 11% 29%
 Unifying the
 73% 14% 39%
 country
 Coronavirus/COVI
 81% 24% 48%
 D-19
 Immigration Corruption
 Racial Inequality 73% 16% 39%

 The environment
 Democrats Republicans Independents

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Appendix

 How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals
 The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter θ\, i.E., Y|θ~bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our
 sample. In this setting, Y counts the number
 of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean ( )ത is a natural estimate of the true population proportion θ. This model is often called the
 likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the bayesian and the classical framework. The bayesian1 statistics combines both the prior distribution
 and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution.

 The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior
 distribution is one’s knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior
 
 distribution is also a beta distribution (π( )~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.
 
 Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible
 
 values for θ given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π ( ). Since we want only one measure of
 
 precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for
 any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal
 1
 distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately: ഥ ∓
 
 For this poll, the Bayesian credibility interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2
 Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below:

 SAMPLE SIZE CREDIBILITY INTERVALS

 2,000 2.5
 500 5.0
 100 11.2
 12 ‒ © Ipsos
1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003
2 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.

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