Corona Virus: Overview and Dealing with it - Dr. Amine Marref March 17, 2020
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Corona Virus: Overview and
Dealing with it
Dr. Amine Marref
amine@marref.org
March 17, 2020Roadmap
1 Naming 6 Symptoms
2 Origin of Virus 7 Contracting the
3 Health Risk Disease
4 Transmission 8 Fatalities
9 Concluding
5 Prevention
RemarksNaming
Scientific name for disease: CoronaVirus Disease
(CoViD-19)1
Scientific name for virus responsible for disease: Severe
Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)2
The word Corona is the Latin of the English word Crown.
The corona disease is caused by a crown virus which is called
so because apparently the first person to discover this group
of viruses thought they look like little crowns.
1
World Health Organization (WHO): www.who.int
2
World Health Organization (WHO): www.who.intNaming
An electron-microscope picture of SARS-CoV-23
3
Rocky Mountain Laboratories (RML): www.niaid.nih.govOrigin of Virus
There are quite a few hypotheses that explain the origin of the
disease.
The virus was created in labs to be used as a biological
weapon.
The virus was created in US labs and was launched in
China.
The virus was created in Chinese labs and was launched
by mistake in China.
There are at least two books published in the past and
that discuss strikingly similar events.
End of Days by Sylvia Browne, 2008 which identifies 2020 as
the year where a virus outbreak occurs that causes a severe
pneumonia-like disease worldwide.
The Eyes of Darkness by Dean Koontz, 1981 which discusses a
virus called Wuhan-400 (at least in later prints) that also takes
the world by surprise and no prizes for noticing it: it originates in
Wuhan, China!Origin of Virus
The virus is caused by bats when bitten by them, eating
them, or eating something bitten by them.
Bats are the source of previous viruses such as EboV,
SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV4 .
It has been reported that people in Wuhan – the place
where the virus was first discovered – consume exotic
animals such as bats.
4
www.who.intHealth Risk
According to Johns Hopkins University5 , the number of
fatalities caused by the Covid-19 according to the latest
update while writing these lines (2020-03-17-14:00) is 3.96%
which corresponds to 7,330 deaths out of 185,067 case
worldwide.
According to the same source6 , the number of fatalities from
seasonal flu is from 291,000 to 646,000 out of a billion case
worldwide annually which corresponds to a fatality rate of
0.06%.
5
Johns Hopkins University: coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
6
Johns Hopkins University: coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.htmlHealth Risk
According to the World Health Organization7 , since
MERS-CoV was discovered it infected 2494 persons of which
it killed 858 i.e. with fatality rate of 34.4%.
According to National Health Service8 , since SARS-CoV was
discovered, it infected 8098 persons of which 774 died i.e.
with fatality rate of 9.5%.
7
World Health Organization: who.int
8
National Health Service: nhs.ukHealth Risk
The following table summarizes the previous statistics.
Notice that there is an inversly-proportional relationship
between the spreading force of the virus quantified by the
number of cases worldwide, and the deadliness of the virus
quantified by the number of fatalities it causes.
So far, it seems that the virus has a large spreading force
with relatively small deadliness.
Virus Name Outbreak Cases Fatalities Ratio
SARS-CoV 2003 8,098 774 9.5%
MERS-CoV 2012 2,494 858 34.4%
SARS-CoV-2 2019 185,067 7,330 3.96%
InfluenzaVirus - 1,000,000,000 291,000-646,000 0.06%Health Risk
The virus is reported to infect pretty much anybody, but it is
most deadly for certain classes of people.
Old people.
People with chronic diseases such as cardiovascular
disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease,
hypertension, and cancer. 9
9
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC): cdc.govHealth Risk
When the virus penetrates the host’s body cells, it starts
making copies of itself and spread until it sometimes reaches
the alveoli in the lungs and causes an inflammation that
makes it hard for them to do their job of exchanging oxygen
and carbon dioxide which eventually causes breathing
difficulties. 10 11
The virus can spread to the digestive system and other
organs such as the heart, liver, and kidneys which could
result in a very strong immune-system response that causes
inflammations which make things a lot worse.
10
Pulmonary pathology of early phase 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19)
pneumonia in two patients with lung cancer, February 2020
11
Chest CT Findings in Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19): Relationship to
Duration of Infection, February 2020Transmission
The corona virus is contagious, and transmission between
humans occurs primarily through coughing and sneezing.
It is possible for the droplets that come out from the
mouth or nose while coughing or sneezing to travel as
far as 10 meters.
The droplets contain the virus in different quantities: a
person that is showing symptoms will produce droplets
that contain more quantities of the virus compared to a
person who is asymptomatic.Transmission
The virus is transmitted secondarily via skin contact e.g.
handshaking or touching a surface to which the virus has
attached itself.
The virus attaches itself to surfaces using hydrogen and
hydrophilic bonds.
A recent study12 shows that SARS-CoV-2 can stick for
days to plastic and stainless steel surfaces, and for
hours to copper and cardboard surfaces.
12
Aerosol and surface stability of HCoV-19 (SARS-CoV-2) compared to
SARS-CoV-1, March 2020Transmission
A recent study13 discovered the virus in the human feces of
infected people, but did not conclude whether or not the
virus is viable – in that state – to infect people.
There are ongoing studies 14 on whether or not recovered
cases can become re-infected and spread the virus
13
Study: COVID-19 may spread in several different ways: cidrap.umn.edu
14
Positive RT-PCR Test Results in Patients Recovered From COVID-19, February
2020Prevention
World health organizations and institutions recommend the
following precautionary methods to avoid contracting the disease.
Staying at home if possible, and limiting outside activity as
much as possible except for the absolute necessities.
Washing hands thoroughly with soap by rubbing it forcefully
on the palms, the back of the hands, between fingers, and in
the crevices of the nails. This should become a second
nature: do it when you are home, before eating, after using
the bathroom, after sneezing, when handling cash, etc.
Avoid touching the face, nose, mouth, and eyes (probably
the hardest!).
Walking away from any person that coughs or sneezes.Prevention Adopt a minimalist-greeting style: greeting people verbally (use telepathy if you can), and avoid handshakes, kissing, hugging, etc. Make sure to cover the toilet seat before flushing to avoid the volatile droplets (at least until it is confirmed whether or not the virus is transmitted this way). Avoid using public loos.
Humane Prevention
It is easy for people to lose their humanity in case of pandemics
and disasters.
Walking away from a person who sneezes or coughs should
be done tactfully e.g. pretending that you want to make a
phone call.
Do not walk away from people while looking at them
with fright or contempt. They might have contracted
the virus, you might too!
Avoiding handshake should be done with a warm smile.Humane Prevention
Panic-buying will cause food to become scarce and therefore
prices will go up.
If the pandemic in your area does not recede within a
couple of weeks or a month, you will run out of the
food you hastily stockpiled. However this time, you
might not find food to buy because the prices just went
crazy.
There are people who only earn enough to buy food for
one day, do not add to their miseries.Symptoms
The corona disease shares many symptoms with seasonal flu:
fever, dry cough, fatigue, and sputum production.
The corona disease differs from the flu in that it causes
shortness of breath in one out of five cases who have
contracted the disease 15 (see next figure).
15
World Health Organization (WHO): who.intSymptoms
Covid-19 Symptoms with Probability of Occurrence
based on Previous Cases
Fever 87.90%
Dry Cough 67.70%
Fatigue 38.10%
Sputum Production 33.40%
Shortness of Breath 18.60%
Musle Pain or Joint Pain 14.80%
Sore Throat 13.90%
Headache 13.60%
Chills 11.40%
Nausea or Vomiting 5%
Nasal Congestion 4.80%
Diarrhea 3.70%Symptoms
The following table 16 compares the symptoms of Covid-19,
seasonal flu, and common cold.
As can be seen, it is difficult without proper medical testing
to identify Covid-19 because of the similarity in symptoms
between the three diseases.
Fortunately, Covid-19 is distinguishable because it causes
shortness of breath (blue cell).
Unfortunately, shortness of breath shows that the disease can
become dangerous for the infected person.
16
Deutsche Welle (DW): dw.comSymptoms
Symptoms Covid-19 Influenza Common Cold
Dry Cough +++ +++ +
Fever +++ +++ -
Nasal Congestion - ++ +++
Sore Throat ++ ++ +++
Shortness of Breath ++ -- --
Headache ++ +++ -
Pain ++ +++ +++
Sneezing -- -- +++
Fatigue ++ +++ ++
Diarrhea - ++ --
+++: Frequently, ++: Sometimes, +: Occasionally, -: Rarely, - -:
Not Observable.Contracting the Disease
If you ever contract the disease, it is best to not panic, and think
logically and scientifically.
I have devised a flowchart (see next figure) that explains the
optimal response a person that contract the disease might
adopt.
The devised response is not theoretically optimal, as this
would imply rushing to a health center after you cough just
once!
However, the theoretically-optimal response will put a huge
burden on health centers and their staff, which could lead to
even more disastrous consequences.
Instead of focusing on genuine cases and cases with
high risks, health centers will be wasting their limited
resources on cases that are otherwise perfectly fine.Contracting the Disease
You are showing some of the disease symptoms
such as fever, dry cough, and fatigue.
Perhaps you have the virus.
You belong to You Belong to
Group A Group B
You are not in You are in There is a chance
contact with a contact with a you have the virus.
person from person from Contact the nearest
Group B Group B health center.
Wait until you feel Group A: People who are not
better, and when you old and who have no chronic
are with a person diseases
from Group B, wear a
Wait until you feel mask and do Group B: People who are old
better everything possible to or who have chronic diseases
not transmit the virus
to them in case you
have contracted the
disease
You are still
sick and started
You feel fine
having difficulties
breathing
There is a good chance
Maintain prevention you have the virus.
measures Contact the nearest
health centerContracting the Disease
The previous response flowchart is based on the following.
If you are not old and you are not suffering from
chronic diseases, in case you contract Covid-19 you will
recover with a 98% chance.
The disease is most dangerous when the virus reaches
alveoli in the lungs, and this is easily detectable by
starting to have shortness of breath.
Old people and those with chronic diseases should take
no chance.
It is possible to add more elements to the diagram, such as
data about contact with people who might already be sick
(e.g. they are coming from an infected area). These new
elements can be integrated to give a more informed response
when showing disease symptoms.Fatalities
17
The following table is taken from ”Our World in Data”
Fatalities by Covid-19 by Age Group
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
0-9 years 0%
10-19 years 0.20%
20-29 years 0.20%
30-39 years 0.20%
40-49 years 0.40%
50-59 years 1.30%
60-69 years 3.60%
70-79 years 8%
above 80 years 14.60%
17
Our World in Data: ourworldindata.orgFatalities
18
The following table is taken from ”Our World in Data”
Fatalities by Covid-19 by Medical Condition
Cardiovascular Dieases 11%
Diabetes 7.30%
Chronic Respiratory Disease 6.30%
Hypertension 6.00%
Cancer 5.60%
No Health Condition 0.90%
18
Our World in Data: ourworldindata.orgConcluding Remarks At the time of writing these lines, the number of people who recovered from Covid-19 is 80,236 out of 185,067 cases i.e. with a recovery rate of 43.3%. Whereas the number of deaths does not exceed 4% most of which target a statistically-known group of people. According to this, there is an unwarranted panic from people which could itself far exceed Covid-19 in its devastation. My advice to you is to focus on preventing yourself from contracting the disease without fearing it unless you are from a vulnerable group, or if the virus becomes more powerful in future. Mass panic and hysteria is what is sought by satanic organizations to dominate people and their wealth.
Concluding Remarks I am not a health professional, I actually have a Ph.D. in Computer Science in Real-Time Systems. This however does not stop me from reading about the development of this pandemic, especially statistical research. I have put enough references for the reader for further research, and in cases where I show my own opinion, I clearly say so.
Concluding Remarks Do not fight the disease as an independent individual, fight it as a member of the society.
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