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BRIEFING PAPER
Number 09045 4 December 2020
Coronavirus: exams in By Nerys Roberts
Shadi Danechi
2021
Contents:
1. Exams in 2021
2. Background: exams and
awarding in 2020
www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | papers@parliament.uk | @commonslibrary2 Coronavirus: exams in 2021
Contents
Summary 3
1. Exams in 2021 4
1.1 What’s the issue? 4
1.2 England 4
What will happen with GCSEs, A Levels and equivalents in 2021? 4
3 December announcements: more generous grading and some advanced
notification of topic areas 5
Sector concerns prior to 3 December announcements 7
What support has been provided for pupils, including exam cohorts? 8
1.3 Other UK nations: exams and awarding in 2021 11
Scotland 11
Wales 12
Northern Ireland 13
2. Background: exams and awarding in 2020 15
2.1 England 15
What proportion of Centre Assessed Grades were adjusted? 17
November 2020 Ofqual report on exam grading in England 18
2.2 Scotland 19
Wales 20
Northern Ireland 21
Cover page image copyright Click & browse to copyright info for stock image3 Commons Library Briefing, 4 December 2020
Summary
Coverage of this briefing
This briefing looks at public examinations in summer 2021, in the context of the
Coronavirus pandemic. It mostly covers England, but has some information on Scotland,
Wales and Northern Ireland. It also provides background information on qualification
awarding in the summer of 2020.
Exams in 2021
England
The Government’s plan for England is that GCSEs and A Levels will go ahead next year,
although most will be delayed by 3 weeks to make extra learning time for pupils who
missed face-to-face teaching in 2020.
On Thursday 3 December 2020, Education Secretary, Gavin Williamson, announced
further changes to exams, including: more generous grading, comparable to 2020;
advance notice of some topic areas; additional exams as back-ups for students who miss
papers owing to illness or self-isolation; and measures to ensure that even students
missing all exams for legitimate reasons can be issued with grades. Vocational and
technical qualifications will also be assessed more flexibly.
Scotland
The Scottish Government says that National 5 examinations (broadly, GCSE equivalent)
will not go ahead in 2021, but Highers and Advanced Highers will – subject to review.
They will start around 2 weeks later than usual.
Wales
The Welsh Government has announced that no GCSEs, AS, or A Level exams will take
place in summer 2021, in respect of awards regulated by the Welsh regulator,
Qualifications Wales and delivered by the Welsh Joint Education Committee (WJEC).
Instead, externally-set assessments delivered by schools, and other methods, will be used
to determine grades.
Northern Ireland
GCSEs, AS and A Level exams will go ahead in Northern Ireland in 2021, with some
adaptations to assessment requirements.
Examinations and awarding in summer 2020
No public exams (i.e., GCSE, AS or A Levels, and National 5s, Highers and Advanced
Highers in Scotland) took place in summer 2020. Originally, the intention across the UK
had been to use a statistical adjustment process following submission of assessments, but
this aspect proved highly controversial, with reports that some students had been
“downgraded”.
Students in all four UK nations received calculated grades based on teacher and lecturer
judgements, or the statistically adjusted grade, if higher.4 Coronavirus: exams in 2021
1. Exams in 2021
1.1 What’s the issue?
Students approaching public exams and assessments in Summer 2021 –
for example, GCSEs, A Levels, Scottish National 5s, Highers and
Advanced Highers, and vocational equivalents - will have missed face-
to-face teaching for most of the summer 2020 term. Some may also
have been required to self-isolate for periods during the 2020-21 school
year.
The process of awarding results in summer 2020 was controversial; all
four UK nations originally intended to use a combination of teacher or
lecturer assessed grades, and statistical adjustment. However, there
were concerns about students being “downgraded” and allegations of
unfairness. In the end, all nations awarded students based on centre-
assessed grades. Where they had already received an adjusted grade
that was higher than the centre-assessed one, they were able to keep
the higher grade.
Education is a devolved policy area, and governments and exam
regulators in the four UK nations have made different decisions on what
will happen in 2021. The context is also different in each nation, in
terms of exams in a ‘normal’ year. In England, most coursework
elements have been removed from GCSEs and A Levels regulated by
exam regulator, Ofqual, as a result of recent reforms. Assessment is
usually mostly by examination – so-called linear GCSEs/ A Levels.
Many qualifications taken by students in Scotland, Wales and Northern
Ireland retain a greater element of non-exam assessment than those
regulated by Ofqual in England.
1.2 England
What will happen with GCSEs, A Levels and
equivalents in 2021?
The Government’s intention is that GCSE and A Levels will go ahead in
England in summer 2021, but most exams will be delayed by around 3
weeks.
Over summer 2020, the Government announced some initial changes to
the form and content of assessments/ subject requirements, in a small
number of subjects, which were set out in an Ofqual consultation
response. 1 One English and maths GCSE paper would be held earlier
than normal, before the May half term, to maximise opportunities to sit
these core subjects, should students be required to isolate during the
main exam period.
1
Ofqual, Consultation decisions. Proposed changes to the assessment of GCSEs, AS
and A Levels in 2021, 3 August 2020. All web sources last checked 3 December
2020, unless otherwise stated.5 Commons Library Briefing, 4 December 2020
3 December announcements: more generous
grading and some advanced notification of topic
areas
On 3 December 2020, Education Secretary, Gavin Williamson,
announced further “exceptional measures” to support students taking
exams in summer 2021, including:
• More generous grading, in line with outcomes in 2020.
• Advance notification of some topic areas at GCSE, AS and A level
to “focus revision”.
• Exam aids such as formula sheets in some exams.
• Additional exams to enable ill or self-isolating students to sit
papers later.
• Contingency plans to enable students to be awarded grades
based on a validated teacher-informed assessment, in case they
have missed all their exam papers for legitimate reasons.
• An expert group to monitor differential learning, and monitor
impacts across the country.
For vocational and technical qualifications, awarding organisations are
being allowed to make some adaptions. Mr Williamson said that these
changes were necessary to “ensure parity between general and
vocational qualifications. Some vocational qualifications will require
more varied adaptations due to the different qualification types.” 2
The Department for Education has published supporting guidance for
schools and students on the announced changes:
• DfE, Guidance to support the summer 2021 exams, 3 December
2020.
Ofqual publications on the changes
On 2 December 2020, Acting Chief Regulator of Ofqual, Dame Glenys
Stacey, wrote to Gavin Williamson on a range of issues, including the
grading of summer 2021 qualifications, adaptations to assessments, and
contingency planning. 3
An Ofqual article of 3 December 2020 provides a summary of the main
changes. 4 This further clarified that:
• Ofqual anticipates being able to pre-announce some of the topic
areas and content that would come up in exams, in January 2020.
• Increased optionality in exam papers, in Ofqual’s view, “could
introduce more problems than it would solve.” This had been
advocated by some in the sector. Generally, the term optionality
refers to assessments or qualifications where students have
optional questions or optional papers.
2
Department for Education press release, ‘Extra measures to support students ahead
of next summer’s exams’, 3 December 2020.
3
Letter from Dame Glenys Stacy to Gavin Williamson, 2 December 2020, published 3
December 2020.
4
Ofqual, ‘Exams and assessments in the months ahead’, 3 December 2020.6 Coronavirus: exams in 2021
Background on optionality in exam papers can be found in an Ofqual
briefing paper. 5 Another briefing paper looks at considerations around
the predictability of exam content. 6
Sector reaction to 3 December announcements
The teaching and leadership unions have largely welcomed the
Government’s announcements on further changes to summer 2021
exams, with some caveats.
The National Association of Head Teachers (NAHT) said:
This announcement brings with it some much needed relief to
school leaders who have been operating in ‘emergency mode’ for
most of this year. The reduction of some of the burdens in the
system will begin to allow school leaders to focus on the quality of
education they are determined to provide for pupils.
Whilst the government has not gone as far as we would have
liked, they have moved significantly towards the profession. We
will continue to work with them on the areas where we still have
concerns. 7
The National Education Union (NEU) said that it welcomed the fact the
Government had shown an understanding of student and school
concerns, but said that confirmation had come “so late […] that
potentially more useful options than the ones announced today have
become less viable”. It also said that, “on balance”, the Government’s
proposals were “insufficient” to meet the challenges arising from
inequality in access to in-school teaching, and to digital technology. 8
The Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL) said that whilst
the measures were not perfect, they would make exams “as fair as they
could be in the circumstances”. It said that although it had argued for
greater optionality in exam papers, it accepted that introducing this
would have been “prohibitively difficult”. 9
The Children’s Commissioner for England, Anne Longfield, welcomed
the fact that clarity had been provided, but said the focus now needed
to be on flexibility and recognising the differential learning loss
experienced between disadvantaged young people, and their more
affluent peers, and between those who had missed greater or lesser
amounts of learning. 10
5
Ofqual, Optionality. A briefing paper, 3 December 2020.
6
Ofqual, Predicting predictability. A briefing paper, 3 December 2020.
7
National Association of Head Teachers, ‘NAHT welcomes ‘significant movement’
from government on exams, tests and accountability’, 3 December 2020.
8
National Education Union (NEU), ‘DfE package of measures - 2021 examinations’, 3
December 2020
9
Association of School and College Leaders, ‘ASCL response to announcement on
exams in 2021’, 3 December 2020.
10
Children’s Commissioner for England news article, ‘Exams are on, but we still need
to recognise the time the children have lost from school’, 3 December 2020.7 Commons Library Briefing, 4 December 2020
Sector concerns prior to 3 December
announcements
Differential impacts of lost learning
Over the summer and autumn of 2020, many sector representatives
raised concerns about the potential for some students, particularly
disadvantaged ones, to be more adversely affected by lost learning
during the pandemic, than others – for example, in areas with higher
case numbers and more pupils in self-isolation, or those from
disadvantaged backgrounds.
The National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) surveyed a
sample of around 3,000 teachers and school leaders in July 2020.
Writing about these results in the context of school re-opening in
September 2020, they noted:
• Estimates suggested that pupils were, on average, three months
behind in their learning.
• Teachers in the most deprived schools were over three times more
likely to report that their learners were four or more months
behind.
• Teachers estimated that 44 per cent of pupils were in need of
intensive catch-up support. 11
Education Policy Institute report
On 9 November 2020, the think tank, the Education Policy Institute
(EPI), published their report on examinations and assessments in 2021. 12
They recommended that policy-makers should:
• Continue to explore whether there can be greater
optionality in exam papers so that pupils have a better
chance of answering questions on the content they have
covered.
• Ensure that multiple papers covering a single subject are as
spaced out as possible during the exam period.
• Introduce a new series of benchmarking assessments to
provide “contingency grades” if summer exams cannot
take place for the majority of pupils. This would replace
existing mock exams.
• Pursue further research about the impact of teacher
assessed grades on pupil outcomes and the disadvantage
gap.
To mitigate against the effect of lost learning, EPI also recommended
that the Government should:
• Provide additional and urgent catch up funding for
disadvantaged pupils this year. This should total around
£1.3bn as EPI recommended earlier this year.
• Consider using the £143m under-allocation from the
National Tutoring Programme to further subsidise tuition
11
National Foundation for Educational Research, ‘Schools' responses to Covid-19 The
challenges facing schools and pupils in September 2020’, 1 September 2020.
12
Education Policy Institute, Position on examinations and testing in 2021, 9 November
2020.8 Coronavirus: exams in 2021
this year so that schools only contribute 10 per cent rather
than 25 per cent.
• Allow some grade inflation for the 2021 cohort to ensure
that individual pupils are not disadvantaged by different
approaches to grading in different years.
• Encourage contextualised admissions to further and higher
education courses.
• Provide catch up support for the 2021 cohort once they are
in further or higher education. 13
Education Committee letter to Gavin Williamson
Robert Halfon MP, Chair of the Education Committee, wrote to
Education Secretary, Gavin Williamson, on 10 November 2020, about
the 2021 exams. The letter made the case for exams to go ahead, and
called on the Government to undertake “robust contingency planning”
to enable this to happen. It also argued that if there were “really
compelling reasons” for not being able to run a full exam series, there
should at least be exams in English, maths and the sciences. The
Government should publish guidance on how providers could run
socially-distanced exams, and also provide financial support if e.g.,
renting additional space or employing more invigilators meant
additional costs. 14
What support has been provided for pupils,
including exam cohorts?
Remote education
During the spring and summer 2020, schools and colleges in England
were encouraged to provide remote education for their pupils.
Additionally, toward the end of the summer 2020 term, the DfE asked
providers to offer some limited face-to-face provision for students in
years 10 and 12 – 2021’s exam cohorts.
From October 2020, schools in England have been required to provide
remote education to any pupils who are not themselves ill but who are
self-isolating for other reasons. The requirement is set out in the
Coronavirus Act 2020 Provision of Remote Education (England)
Temporary Continuity Direction. The DfE publishes guidance on remote
education expectations in its information for schools on full opening. 15
Digital devices
Over the spring and summer of 2020, the Department for Education
(DfE) provided local authorities and academy trusts in England with
digital devices and wireless routers for disadvantaged children up to
around age 16, to support remote education. It is also distributing
further devices during the autumn 2020 term.
13
Education Policy Institute, Position on examinations and testing in 2021, 9 November
2020, p14.
14
Letter from Education Committee to Secretary of State for Education, 10 November
2020.
15
Department for Education, Guidance for full opening: schools, updated 3 December
2020.9 Commons Library Briefing, 4 December 2020
A Lords PQ response provided on 4 November 2020 said that the
Government had “spent over £195 million on support for
disadvantaged children and young people to access remote education
through laptops and tablets, internet connectivity support, and access to
online education platforms.” 16
On 7 August the DfE announced that further laptops for disadvantaged
children would be made available, in addition to the 200,000 already
distributed earlier in the year. These laptops are intended for children
who cannot attend school, either because of local lockdowns or
because they are clinically vulnerable or otherwise unable to attend
school. DfE guidance provides details of how schools can access the
scheme, and who is prioritised for devices. 17
The previous run of laptops had been allocated to local authorities and
schools on assessments of local need. A previous PQ response from the
Schools Minister had noted that:
Nick Gibb: […] Local authorities and academy trusts are best
place[d] to identify and prioritise children and young people who
need devices. The Department is agreeing the number of devices
allocated to each local authority and academy trust based on its
estimates of the number of eligible children that do not have
access to a device. 18
Concerns have been raised about the distribution of laptops during the
autumn 2020 term, with schools concerned that they were in line to
receive fewer laptops than they had originally been told. Schools
Minister, Nick Gibb MP, recently provided an update on laptop
provision, including statistical information on the laptops already
distributed, and stated that changing allocations of laptops had been
caused by the differing severity of Covid-19 outbreaks in different areas:
Nick Gibb: The Department has invested £195 million to support
remote education and access to online social care. In addition to
over 220,000 laptops and tablets being delivered during the
summer term for disadvantaged children who would not
otherwise have access, we have supplemented this support by
making an additional 340,000 laptops and tablets available in the
event that face-to-face education is disrupted as a result of the
COVID-19 outbreak. Since September 2020, over 100,000 of
these have already been delivered to schools. More information
about the allocation of laptops to date can be found here:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/syste
m/uploads/attachment_data/file/929064/Ad-
hoc_stats_note_shipped_data_231020_FINAL.pdf (opens in a new
tab).
The targeting of laptops and tablets through this scheme has
continually been reviewed to ensure support is offered in the most
effective way, to reflect the numbers of schools that have been
disrupted and the number of laptops and tablets available at any
time. In the context of significant demand, we have updated our
allocation process to more accurately align orders with the
number of students typically self-isolating, ensuring as many
16
HL 9006, 4 November 2020.
17
Department for Education, ‘Get laptops and tablets for children who cannot attend
school due to coronavirus (COVID-19)’, updated 1 October 2020.
18
PQ 47479, 20 May 202010 Coronavirus: exams in 2021
children as possible benefit from receiving a device this term. On
24 October 2020, the Department communicated this change in
allocations to all schools. If schools are experiencing disruption to
face-to-face education and believe they have a need for additional
devices, they should contact the Department‘s service team via
covid.technology@education.gov.uk (opens in a new tab) to
request additional laptops or tablets. 19
Catch-up funding and the National Tutoring Programme
In June 2020, the Government announced it would make £1bn
available across England to help school pupils catch up on lost learning
during the pandemic. 20 £650 million would be paid via a universal
catch-up premium, with the balance for a National Tutoring Programme
(NTP). The NTP enables schools to access heavily-subsidised, but not
free, tutoring, provided by a range of third parties. There is also a £96
million scheme for further education colleges and other 16-19
providers.
At the November 2020 Spending Review, HM Treasury identified £1.8
billion across 2020-21 and 2021-22 for catch-up support for schools
and for supplementary support for free school meals. 21
The Education Policy Institute report on exams in 2021, published
before the 2020 Spending Review, claimed that the NTP scheme had
been “undermined” by delays in allocating money to schools, delays in
implementing the tutoring programme and academic mentors, and “an
under-allocation of over a third of the budget for the National Tutoring
Programme”. Consequently, and as noted above, it recommended that
the Government provided additional and urgent catch-up cash “before
the end of this calendar year” to specifically benefit students in years 11
and 13. 22
An article in the TES published on 30 November 2020 said that the DfE
had confirmed to the journal that money announced for the NTP would
cover two years, and not one:
The government has admitted it is breaking its pledge to
invest £350 million in catch-up tutoring for this academic year.
When the National Tutoring Programme (NTP) was announced in
June, the government said the £350 million it had assigned to
fund the scheme would "increase access to high-quality tuition
for the most disadvantaged young people over the 2020-21
academic year".
But the Department for Education (DfE) has now confirmed
to Tes that this money will cover two years of tutoring, not one.
The department said the NTP had been extended for at least
another year and it was correct to say that the £350 million
covered the full two years of the programme.
19
PQ 115644, 19 November 2020
20
Department for Education press release, ‘Billion pound Covid catch-up plan to tackle
impact of lost teaching time’, 19 June 2020.
21
HM Treasury, Spending Review 2020, 25 November 2020, p30.
22
Education Policy Institute, Position on examinations and testing in 2021, 9 November
2020, ps 11 & 12.11 Commons Library Briefing, 4 December 2020
The news comes a month after Tes revealed that the government
had refused to account for £143 million of its Covid catch-up
tutoring fund.
At the time, the DfE would not say whether it was sticking by its
original pledge for the money – amounting to 40 per cent of the
whole tutoring fund – to benefit pupils this academic year.
Wes Streeting, Labour's shadow schools minister, said: "Yet again
this government is failing to deliver on its promises, which will
exacerbate an attainment gap that was widening even before the
pandemic.
"Urgent investment is needed in catch-up learning, alongside
support to keep schools open and ensure children self-isolating
have access to laptops to enable them to learn remotely.
"The Conservatives' approach is holding children's education back
and without urgent action, children's learning will be permanently
damaged by this pandemic."
Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and
College Leaders, said: "The National Tutoring Programme seems
to have morphed from being a catch-up programme to being a
longer-term project.
"The problem is that it was never going to be possible to turn it
around early in the autumn term because of the practical
challenges involved in setting up a scheme like this from scratch.
"Taking a longer-term approach may be useful to a certain extent,
but it would have made more sense to have simply given the
money to schools directly at the outset, given that the immediate
priority should be catch-up support."
Sarah Mulholland, head of policy at the Northern Powerhouse
Partnership, said: "Now that the £350 million has to stretch to
two years instead of one, it will be a much harder task for the
thousands of children who have fallen behind during Covid to
catch up with their peers." 23
1.3 Other UK nations: exams and awarding
in 2021
Scotland
On 7 October 2020, the Scottish Government announced that National
5 examinations (broadly, GCSE equivalent) would not go ahead in 2021,
but Highers and Advanced Highers will – subject to review. They will
start around 2 weeks later than usual.
National 5 qualifications will instead be awarded based on teacher
judgement and coursework. Giving reasons for the decision, Deputy
First Minister, John Swinney, argued that “due to the level of disruption
that has already been caused by Covid and the likely disruption that
some or all pupils and students face this academic year, a full exam diet
[series] is too big a risk to take; it would not be fair.” 24
23
‘Exclusive: £350m Covid tutoring promise broken by DfE’, in the TES, 30 November
2020.
24
Scottish Parliament, Official Report, 7 October 2020.12 Coronavirus: exams in 2021
The Educational Institute of Scotland (EIS), Scotland’s largest teaching
union, said that the clarity on exams was “welcome - if overdue”. 25 It
also cautioned against a repeat of the 2020 experience, saying it was:
[I]mportant that lessons are learned from the qualifications
experience this year, and that there is no suggestion that teachers’
professional judgements of student achievement will be
overturned by the SQA, or its algorithms, and equally that
procedures are put in place to control teacher workload – this
cannot be a situation, especially as schools and colleges are
grappling with the challenges of COVID, where excessive
additional workload is heaped onto teachers or students by the
SQA.
The Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) has published guidance for
schools, colleges and students on changes to National Qualifications in
2021.
Wales
Exam regulator, Qualifications Wales, recommended on 29 October
2020 that external assessment should be retained for GCSEs, AS and A
Levels in Wales, in 2021, but that exams were only timetabled for A
Levels. For GCSE and AS Levels, its view was that grades should be
awarded on the basis of coursework and common assessments carried
out during the year. For A Levels, students should sit one exam paper
for each subject, supplemented by coursework and set tasks.
An independent panel led by the Open University’s Director in Wales,
Louise Casella, came to different conclusions in their interim report. The
panel’s early recommendations were that no exams should go ahead in
2021, and that grades should be awarded instead “on the basis of
robust and moderated assessment undertaken in schools and
colleges”. 26
On 10 November 2020, Minister for Education, Kirsty Williams,
announced that GCSEs, AS and A Levels would not go ahead in Wales
in summer 2021. 27 Instead, there will be teacher-managed assessments,
including some that are externally set and marked but delivered within a
classroom environment. The Welsh Government has confirmed that the
decisions apply only to Qualifications Wales-approved qualifications
designed for Wales and delivered by the WJEC and not to qualifications
delivered by English-based awarding bodies. 28
The Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL) Cymru said it
wholeheartedly welcomed the decision, adding:
This is the right decision for our young people.
It recognises the fact that they will have been affected to differing
25
The Educational Institute of Scotland, news story, ‘Clarity on Exams is welcome,
though overdue’, 7 October 2020.
26
Independent review of the summer 2020 arrangements to award grades, and
considerations for summer 2021: Interim report, October 2020.
27
Welsh Government press release, ‘Wales’ approach for qualifications in 2021
confirmed by Education Minister Kirsty Williams’, 10 November 2020.
28
Welsh Government, ‘Examination and assessment guidance: 2020 to 2021’,
updated 3 December 2020.13 Commons Library Briefing, 4 December 2020
extents by the impact of the pandemic and it allows for as much
teaching time as possible to catch-up with lost learning.
We are confident that the planned approach is robust and that it
will avoid the pitfalls that occurred in the grading of this summer’s
qualifications.
Parents can be reassured also by the steps the Welsh government
has taken to ensure this approach will not disadvantage students
in Wales in comparison to those in the other UK nations. 29
The Welsh Government has published guidance for schools, colleges,
and students on assessment arrangements in 2021.
Northern Ireland
On 9 October 2020, the Education Minister, Peter Weir, announced that
exams would go ahead in Northern Ireland in 2021. However, there
would be some changes, including:
• A specified module would be omitted from assessments for most
GCSEs.
• The timetable for all exams would be delayed by one week. 30
The Department of Education has published a FAQs document
highlighting the main changes to particular qualifications. 31 This states
that “exams and assessments for GCSE qualifications have been
reduced by up to 40% to reflect lost face-to-face teaching time”. 32
However, there would be no changes to GCSE maths.
The Council for the Curriculum, Examinations and Assessment (CCEA)
has published a range of guidance on awarding in 2021, including a
document outlining assessment Arrangements for GCSE, AS and A Level
qualifications. 33
In the debate following the Education Secretary’s Statement to
Parliament on 3 December 2020, Mr Williamson said:
Many pupils in Northern Ireland sit papers from English exam
boards, and the measures that we are taking will obviously be
replicated in Northern Ireland for them. Only yesterday, I spoke to
Peter Weir, the Education Minister for Northern Ireland. At every
stage, we are considering implications that may arise for Northern
Irish students as a result of these changes. We are doing
everything we can to accommodate any concerns that Peter Weir
may have on behalf of pupils in Northern Ireland, and we hope
that we can balance that off. 34
29
Association of School and College Leaders, ‘ASCL Cymru responds to decision on
GCSEs, AS and A levels in 2021’, 10 November 2020.
30
See: Department of Education news story, ‘Changes to examinations and
qualifications announced to support pupil progress’, 9 October 2020.
31
Department of Education, Key changes to qualifications in 2020/21, 19 October
2020.
32
As above.
33
Council for the Curriculum, Examinations and Assessment, Assessment
Arrangements for GCSE, AS and A Level Qualifications in Summer 2021: Summary
Document, Version 2, 9 November 2020.
34
HC Deb 3 December 2020, Vol. 685, Col. 441.14 Coronavirus: exams in 2021
15 Commons Library Briefing, 4 December 2020
2. Background: exams and
awarding in 2020
2.1 England
There were no GCSE or A Level examinations in Summer 2020. Instead,
a different process, including statistical standardisation, was initially
used to provide most candidates in England with A Level grades. This
process proved highly controversial, and on 17 August 2020 it was
announced that school or college assessments of pupils’ ability would
be used instead, unless the moderated grade was higher.
17 August announcements
A level results in England were originally announced on 13 August
2020. Significant concern was raised about the impact of the system
used to assign grades (see below), focusing in particular on students
from less advantaged schools or colleges who had been awarded lower
grades than expected, preventing them from taking up places at their
preferred university.
On 17 August, Ofqual issued a statement withdrawing the previous
system, and stating that grades would be awarded on the basis of
information teachers had submitted about individual pupils – known as
Centre Assessment Grades (CAGs). This would apply to AS and A levels,
and also to the GCSE results to be published on 20 August:
There was no easy solution to the problem of awarding exam
results when no exams have taken place. Ofqual was asked by the
Secretary of State to develop a system for awarding calculated
grades, which maintained standards and ensured that grades
were awarded broadly in line with previous years. Our goal has
always been to protect the trust that the public rightly has in
educational qualifications.
But we recognise that while the approach we adopted attempted
to achieve these goals we also appreciate that it has also caused
real anguish and damaged public confidence. Expecting schools to
submit appeals where grades were incorrect placed a burden on
teachers when they need to be preparing for the new term and
has created uncertainty and anxiety for students. For all of that,
we are extremely sorry.
We have therefore decided that students be awarded their centre
assessment for this summer - that is, the grade their school or
college estimated was the grade they would most likely have
achieved in their exam - or the moderated grade, whichever is
higher.
The statement further said Ofqual was working with the Department for
Education and universities on the way forward. 35
Ofqual issued a separate statement on the grading of vocational and
technical qualifications (VTQs), such as BTECs. A different system had
been in place for grading these qualifications:
35
Ofqual, Statement from Roger Taylor, Chair, Ofqual, 17 August 202016 Coronavirus: exams in 2021
Under the framework for VTQs, each awarding organisation has
been responsible for developing its own model for issuing results
in line with a set of principles. The framework allows awarding
organisations, where necessary, to prioritise the issue of
sufficiently valid and reliable results over the maintenance of
standards. Ofqual developed and implemented this framework in
close collaboration with awarding organisations and the wider
sector. Although calculated results have been issued for many
VTQs, in only a very few cases has the same kind of statistical
standardisation process of Centre Assessment Grades (CAGs)
been used – in other words, we think there are few qualifications
where the cohort has received entirely algorithmically determined
grades.
Where a standardisation model similar to the Ofqual model for GCSEs
and A levels had been used, Ofqual asked the relevant organisations to
review their approach. As a result, Ofqual believed “a small proportion”
of VTQ results would be reissued. 36
On 19 August, following Ofqual’s announcements, the awarding body
Pearson announced that it was regrading the following BTECs: BTEC
Level 3 Nationals (2010 QCF and 2016 RQF), BTEC Level 1/2 Tech
Awards, BTEC Level 2 Technicals and BTEC Level 1/2 Firsts.
Pearson said this was “to deliver fair outcomes for BTEC students in
relation to A Levels and GCSEs and to ensure that no student is
disadvantaged,” and that no grades would go down as part of the
review. 37
Original process for awarding grades
Schools and colleges were asked to provide a centre assessment grade
(CAG). This is the grade a student would have been most likely to have
achieved if they’d sat their exams and completed any non-exam
assessment. They were also asked to supply awarding bodies with a list
of candidates in rank order, within each grade, for each subject.
Standardisation
Following a consultation, exams regulator for England, Ofqual, also
decided that exam boards should standardise grades. This involved the
use of:
a statistical model which will include the expected national
outcomes for this year’s students, the prior attainment of students
at each school and college (at cohort, not individual level), and
previous results of the school or college. 38
The consultation set out the aims of standardisation as:
• i. to provide students with the grades that they would most
likely have achieved had they been able to complete their
assessments in summer 2020;
36
Ofqual, Grading of vocational and technical qualifications, 17 August 2020
37
Pearson, Results day support for learners and parents, 19 August 2020
38
Ofqual news story, ‘Ofqual GCSE and A level consultation outcomes and autumn
exam series proposals’, 22 May 2020.17 Commons Library Briefing, 4 December 2020
• ii. to apply a common standardisation approach, within and
across subjects, for as many students as possible;
• iii. to use a method that is transparent and easy to explain,
wherever possible, to encourage engagement and build
confidence;
• iv. to protect, so far as is possible, all students from being
systematically advantaged or disadvantaged,
notwithstanding their socio-economic background or
whether they have a protected characteristic;
• v. to be deliverable by exam boards in a consistent and
timely way that they can quality assure and can be
overseen effectively by Ofqual. 39
In response to the consultation, Ofqual confirmed that the
standardisation process would:
place more weight on a centre’s historical performance in a
subject than the submitted centre assessment grades where that
will result in students getting the grades that they would most
likely have achieved had they been able to complete their
assessments in summer 2020. 40
Further information on the standardisation process was provided in
Ofqual’s interim report on awarding in summer 2020. 41
What proportion of Centre Assessed Grades were
adjusted?
As noted above, on 13 August the (standardised) A level and AS level
results for England were announced.
The table below shows that in total 39.1% of A level Centre Assessed
Grades (CAGs) were adjusted downwards, around 2.2% were adjusted
upward, and 58.7% of entries were not adjusted. While 36.9% of AS
level CAGs were adjusted downwards, around 3.1% were adjusted
upward, and 59.8% of entries were not adjusted. 42
39
Ofqual consultation, Exceptional arrangements for assessment and grading in 2020,
24 April 2020, p7.
40
Ofqual news story, ‘Ofqual GCSE and A level consultation outcomes and autumn
exam series proposals’, 22 May 2020
41
Ofqual, Awarding GCSE, AS, A level, advanced extension awards and extended
project qualifications: Summer 2020, 13 August 2020.
42
As above, Table 9.8.18 Coronavirus: exams in 2021
39% of A Level and 37% of AS CAGs were revised downwards
England, 2020
A Levels AS Levels
58.7% 59.8%
35.6%
28.7%
3.3% 2.2% 2.9%
0.2% 1.1% 7.1%19 Commons Library Briefing, 4 December 2020
been more closely in line with the established relationships
between student characteristics and outcomes that we see in
previous exam results. The changes seen by using final grades are
small, however, and do not suggest that any groups of candidates
who share particular protected characteristics or socioeconomic
status were systemically disadvantaged.
At both GCSE and A level, the most consistent and significant
effect was an uplift in outcomes for all groups using CAGs and
final grades, but not using calculated grades.
At A level, the attainment gap that had previously seen male
candidates outperform female candidates (when other variables
are accounted for) narrowed further, having previously narrowed
between 2018 and 2019. This suggests the change in the gender
attainment gap is a continuation of a trend. This was true for
CAGs, calculated grades and final grades. 45
Similarly, the report on VTQs pointed to little change in attainment gaps
between different groups, compared to previous cohorts:
[The] research shows that grades awarded to those who sat those
VTQs earlier this year were not substantially different to grades
from previous years, despite the impact of COVID-19. There was,
however, for certain types of qualifications, an increase in the
number of top grades being awarded.
For the VTQ report, Ofqual researchers collected data from 33
awarding organisations on all learners who were awarded a grade
for a Functional Skills, Other General, or Performance Table
Qualification between mid-March and the end of July.
Attainment gaps between different demographic groups did not
change or increase in most cases. These analyses do not suggest
that any groups of candidates who share particular protected
characteristics or socioeconomic status were systemically
disadvantaged by the impact of the pandemic and the approach
to awarding in 2020.
The overall profile of results for this group of qualifications was
broadly in line with normal expectations. Ofqual will continue to
monitor VTQ results in the months to come. 46
2.2 Scotland
Scotland’s original approach to awarding qualifications in 2020 was
similar, but not identical, to that proposed for England, in that it used a
combination of teacher assessment and moderation. Information on
Scotland’s original awarding methodology can be found on the Scottish
Qualification Authority’s (SQA) website.
45
Ofqual news story, ‘Summer 2020 outcomes did not systemically disadvantage
students’, 26 November 2020.
46
As above.20 Coronavirus: exams in 2021
Scottish exam results for National 5s, Highers, and Advanced Highers
were announced on 4 August 2020. Press reports noted that large
numbers of students had received lower grades than they might have
expected. 47
In a statement six days later, on Monday 10 August 2020, First Minister,
Nicola Sturgeon said that in reference to exam awarding, the Scottish
Government “did not get this right, and I am sorry for that”. She added
that “too many students felt they had lost out”, as a result of “a
statistical model or an algorithm”, and that the burden had not fallen
equally across society. 48
Deputy First Minster, John Swinney, made a further statement in the
Scottish Parliament the following day, Tuesday 11 August 2020. In this,
he apologised to students who received lower grades than they were
expecting, but noted that three-quarters of grades were not adjusted
during the statistical process at all. He said that the Scottish
Government would:
• Require that all awards that were downgraded following statistical
standardisation were withdrawn, and reissued based solely on
teacher or lecturer judgement.
• Ensure affected students got fresh certificates.
• Permit learners whose grade was increased following statistical
moderation, to keep those grades.
• Ensure that there were sufficient places in universities for the
2020-21 academic year.
• Commission an independent review of the awarding process, led
by Professor Mark Priestly, of the University of Stirling. 49
The Scottish Government published its response to Prof. Priestly’s rapid
review on 7 October 2020. 50
Wales
In Wales, similarly, the original intention had been to award grades for
GCSEs, AS and A Levels using a combination of centre assessment, and
statistical standardisation. An overview of the approach originally
planned can be found in this briefing published on 3 April 2020, by
Qualifications Wales. 51
However, on 17 August 2020, Minister for Education, Kirsty Williams,
announced that grades for GCSEs, AS, A Levels and some other
qualifications would now be awarded based on Centre Assessed
Grades, unless they had been revised upwards as a result of statistical
47
See e.g., ‘Scotland's results day: Thousands of pupils have exam grades lowered’,
BBC News, 4 August 2020.
48
Nicola Sturgeon speech, ‘Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: First Minister's speech 10
August 2020’, 10 August 2020.
49
Statement to the Scottish Parliament, Examination Results, 11 August 2020.
50
Scottish Government, ‘National Qualifications experience 2020 - rapid review: our
response’, 7 October 2020.
51
Qualifications Wales, Centre Assessment Grades. Frequently Asked Questions, 3
April 2020.21 Commons Library Briefing, 4 December 2020
standardisation. In that case, the student would be allowed to keep the
higher grade. 52
The Welsh Government subsequently asked Louise Casella, Director of
the Open University in Wales, to lead an independent review of the
summer 2020 awarding process. The review’s interim report was
published in October 2020. 53
Northern Ireland
As for the other UK nations, Northern Ireland planned to use a
combination of centre assessment and statistical adjustment in order to
award GCSEs, AS and A Level grades in summer 2020.
An overview of the original approach to awarding qualifications
regulated by the Council for the Curriculum, Examinations and
Assessment (CCEA) can be found in a CCEA news article published on
16 April 2020. 54 More detailed background can be found in a May 2020
CCEA exam centre heads. 55
On 16 August 2020, Education Minister, Peter Weir, announced that
GCSE students would be awarded solely based on centre assessment. 56
The following day, he announced that AS and A Level students would
be allowed to keep whichever was the highest grade – i.e., either the
centre assessed grade, or the post-statistical standardisation grade they
had already been issued with by that point. 57
52
See: Welsh Government press release, ‘Statement from the Minister for Education,
Kirsty Williams’, 17 August 2020.
53
Independent review of the summer 2020 arrangements to award grades, and
considerations for summer 2021: Interim report, October 2020.
54
Council for the Curriculum, Examinations and Assessment, ‘CCEA announces how
GCSEs, AS and A levels will be Awarded in Summer 2020’, 16 April 2020.
55
Council for the Curriculum, Examinations and Assessment, Awarding for GCSE, AS
and A Level Qualifications Summer 2020, Version 2, 20 May 2020.
56
See: Department of Education news story, ‘Centre Assessed Grades to be awarded
at GCSE in Northern Ireland’, 16 August 2020.
57
See Department of Education news story, ‘Changes to AS and A level awards in
Northern Ireland’, 17 August 2020.About the Library
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