CORONAVIRUS IMPACT ANALYSIS - 17 MARCH 2020 EUROPE & NORTH AMERICA - PARR GLOBAL

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17 March 2020
Europe & North America

Coronavirus
Impact Analysis

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Acuris                            Coronavirus Impact Analysis

Introduction                                                                                                                     Coronavirus Coverage by the Numbers   03
                                                                                                                                 Top Coronavirus Intelligence          04
The rapid spread of coronavirus around the world, coupled with Saudi Arabia’s decision to increase the supply of oil, led to a
                                                                                                                                 Market Activity                       05
market panic last week that sent prices of stocks, bonds and asset-backed securities plunging in Europe and North America.
                                                                                                                                 Primary Debt Markets                  10
Instead of stabilizing markets, the US Federal Reserve’s emergency action on Sunday to cut interest rates to near zero and
revive a USD 700bn quantitative easing program pushed stocks down over 10% on Monday as countries closed borders.                Mergers & Acquisitions                11
Companies, investors and advisors confront widening yield spreads on debt, heightened volatility in equity markets and great     Equity Capital Markets                12
uncertainty over the severity of the pandemic. Global GDP is expected to contract in the first quarter and some analysts are
                                                                                                                                 Sector Impacts                        13
projecting what JPMorgan has called a “novel global recession” for the first half of the year.
                                                                                                                                 Asset-Backed Securities               15
These macro themes are directly impacting markets that Acuris products cover from high-yield new issuance to middle market
M&A and CLO formation. Below is a compilation of data, intelligence and insights from Creditflux, Credit Rubric, Dealreporter,   Contributors & Contact                16
Debtwire and Mergermarket editors and analysts.

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Acuris                             Coronavirus Impact Analysis                                                              3

  Coronavirus Coverage by the Numbers
                                                                                               over

                               940                                                        40
                                                                                        translated articles

         Actionable intelligence opportunities

                                                                  across
                                                                             244                              232
                                                                             Americas                            EU

         51%                                                144
             Acuris proprietary content                          countries
                                                                             442                              15
                                                                               Asia                           Middle East

Acuris.com
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Acuris                         Coronavirus Impact Analysis                                                                                                               4

Top Coronavirus Intelligence                                                                                                               More from Acuris companies
                                                                                                                                          This section requires an internet
                                                                                                                                                               connection

  9 March                                      11 March                                12 March                               12 March
                                               Carlson Wagonlit renews Navy contract   Amex GBT puts MAC speculation          Coronavirus throws cold water on
  Private equity seeks solutions to
                                               but 1Q20 revenue down on coronavirus    to bed as travel and leisure selloff   Brazil’s promising year for IPOs
  uncertainty as coronavirus derails
                                               impact                                  continues
  buyouts                                                                                                                     Mergermarket
                                               Debtwire                                Debtwire
  Mergermarket

  13 March                                     13 March                                13 March                               13 March
  US deal making curtailed but not             EC to ask companies to hold off on      Pockets of healthcare offer solace     Social distancing worries travel and
  derailed by coronavirus pandemic             notifying mergers for ‘time being’      to investors amid market calamity      leisure creditors as virus outbreak
                                                                                                                              spreads
  Mergermarket                                 Dealreporter                            Debtwire
                                                                                                                              Debtwire

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Acuris                                    Coronavirus Impact Analysis                                                                       5

Market Activity

                                                                                                 Over the past few weeks, high-yield bond
 HY bond yields climb sharply
                                                                                                 yields have jumped to 8.15% from 5.02% on 21
                                                                                                 February, according to the ICE BofA US High
                     16
                                                                                                 Yield index.
                                                                                                 Leveraged loans have also suffered a dramatic
                     14                                                                          drop in secondary market prices and are down
                                                                                                 550bps last week alone to the 88 area. They
                                                                                                 are now off 800bps since 21 February.
                     12

                     10
         Yield (%)

                     8

                     6

                     4

                     2

                     0

                          Overall Index          BB rated        B rated   CCC and lower rated

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Acuris                          Coronavirus Impact Analysis                                                                                                   6

Market Activity

  Secondary loan market prices drop by 475bps since Feb. 21                                                      Debtwire’s Distressed Bond Index increased
                                                                                                                 to 316 borrowers, up from 280 borrowers in
                                                                            80%
                                                                                                                 February. The index Yield-to-Worst (YTW)
             99
                                                                                                                 increased 877bps to 39% from 30% last
                                                                                                                 month.
             98
                                                                            70%

             97
                                                                            60%

             96

                                                                                  Share of loans bid >=100 (%)
                                                                            50%

             95

                                                                            40%

             94

                                                                            30%
             93

                                                                            20%
             92

                                                                            10%
             91

             90                                                             0%

                   Weighted Avg. Bid             Share of loans bid >=100

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Acuris                            Coronavirus Impact Analysis                                                                                                       7

Market Activity

In Europe, the iTraxx Crossover index that tracks the 75 most liquid high-yield credits has
                                                                                                      Large Uptick in European Stressed and Distressed HY Bonds
widened as much as 380bps since 21 February and was close to 600bps early on Friday 13
March before tightening back to 496bps-mid. As a result, the portion of high yield bonds trading
above par has nearly halved from 804 (or 83% of the total) to 439 (45% of the total). The EU
market selloff over the past two weeks pushed EUR 22.7bn-equivalent of high yield bonds into
stressed and distressed territory during the week of 9 March, according to Credit Rubric data.
Out of a universe of 967 notes, the share of bonds quoted below 80-mid more than doubled                                       40
to 8.7% on 10 March from 3.8% on 21 February. Oil & gas was the hardest-hit sector, with some
names collapsing by as much as 40 points and one in every three bonds in stressed (defined as
price below 80) or distressed levels (price below 60).                                                                         35
The sharp decline in valuations come as high yield bond and leveraged loan mutual funds & ETFs
have seen large outflows. In the week ending 11 March, high yield bond funds suffered outflows of                              30
USD 4.9bn, taking the total over the last three weeks to USD 14bn, according to Lipper.
The Federal Reserve’s rate cuts have further dented the attractiveness of loan funds, which
primarily buy floating rate debt. In turn, loan funds saw USD 2.1bn exit in the most recent week,                              25
taking outflows to USD 5.3bn in the last three weeks.

                                                                                                                Value (EUR )
                                                                                                                               20

                                                                                                                               15

                                                                                                                               10

                                                                                                                                5

                                                                                                                               0
                                                                                                                                         21 Feb            10 Mar

                                                                                                            Distressed              Stressed

acuris.com                                                                                          *In EUR-equivalent bn; Source: Credit Rubric
Acuris                                                Coronavirus Impact Analysis                                                                                                                                                                                8

Market Activity

  Early Signs of Slowing M&A Activity                                                                                                                         500

                     800                                                                                              5,000

                                                                                                                                                              400
                     700

                     600                                                                                              4,000
                                                                                                                                                              300

                                                                                                                                             Value (USD bn)
                     500
    Value (USD bn)

                                                                                                                              Deal count
                     400                                                                                              3,000
                                                                                                                                                              200

                     300

                     200                                                                                              2,000
                                                                                                                                                              100

                      100

                       0                                                                                              1,000                                    0
                                                                                                                                                                    2008   2009   2010   2011     2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   2018   2019   2020
                            2008 2009   2010   2011    2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   2018   2019   2020

                     Deal value YTD            Deal count YTD                                                                                                  Americas           Asia          Europe

M&A markets were already showing declines ahead of the virus spreading. YTD global deal                                                    9.8% on 12 March. Europe saw an even more dramatic expansion from 0.23% to 6.2% on average,
values and counts stand at the lowest level since 2014, according to Mergermarket data. The                                                taking into account positive and negative spreads. The widening shows that markets are pricing
trend holds across all regions except Europe, which early last week saw a USD 35bn insurance                                               in higher chances that some deals will not be completed or will close on revised terms. There
brokerage transaction announced just as markets started to collapse. Coronavirus’ full impact on                                           may also be temporary dislocation as investors sell positions to reduce overall risk.
deals may not show for some time as M&A transactions take months to come together.
Completed deal values for 2020 will no doubt come in below the headline announced figures
as some transactions are terminated. Spreads on public company deals have blown out over the
past month with spreads on airline and movie theater transactions exceeding 50%, according to
Dealreporter data. Average spreads for North America deals jumped from 3% on 6 February to

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Acuris                                            Coronavirus Impact Analysis                                                                                                    9

  Stock Spreads on Deals Widen

                                         10

                                         8

                                         6
                    Average spread (%)

                                         4

                                         2

                                         0
                                              6-Feb       13-Feb       20-Feb           27-Feb           5-Mar           10-Mar           12-Mar

             Asia                             Europe            North America

acuris.com                                                                      Source: Dealreporter. Averages include negative spreads. Calculations based on closing prices.
Acuris                             Coronavirus Impact Analysis                                                                                                                                           10

Primary Market Overview

North America                                      disruption. Ultimately, Del Monte elected to       The busy February followed the best January         The one company that attempted to brave
                                                   postpone the offering, according to Debtwire.      since 2017.                                         the market since late February, Netherlands-
The spread of the coronavirus, combined with
                                                                                                                                                          based geotechnical and survey group Fugro,
the oil price war, has put primary issuance        The primary market for CLO funds—major             Deals in January and February priced at some
                                                                                                                                                          postponed a debut EUR 500m offering.
in the high yield bond and leveraged loan          buyers of leveraged loans—has not gone             of the tightest points in market memory with
markets on hold. It is unclear when the primary    completely quiet. Five managers have               BB rated names coming in at Euribor+ 231.8bps       US ATM manufacturer Diebold Nixdorf had
market will open up again.                         appeared on the radar with hopes of bringing       and B rated names at 384.6bps on average            looked to meet investors in February ahead
                                                   new CLOs in the coming weeks, according to         over the two months according to Debtwire           of a potential European high yield issuance,
It has become challenging for leveraged
                                                   Creditflux.                                        Par data, so finding the new normal amid the        though no official transaction or bond
finance bankers and investors to price new
                                                                                                      uncertainty is not obvious.                         structure emerged.
deals amid the volatility and uncertainty. When    A New York based CLO arranger
the market does reopen, the high yield bond        acknowledged there are much greater                Underwriting in these uncertain times has           Three other new issuance candidates – Italian
market will likely open up first since companies   hurdles, but said the primary market pipeline      become a sport not for the faint-hearted,           producer and distributor of frozen patisserie
are able to pursue drive-by deals that allow       is unlikely to dry up completely. “These are       as pricing deals correctly has become tricky        products Pasticceria Bindi, Italian IT services
an issuer to price an offering in a single day,    tough conditions to showcase a CLO,” said the      business, while those who recently underwrote       business Engineering Group, and Italian luxury
which lowers execution risk.                       official, “but managers are keen to bring new      deals during more benign times may have a           trainers maker Golden Goose – have not
                                                   deals to market to build up AUM and placing        battle to offload the paper at the expected         moved forward.
The loan market, where deals take at least a
                                                   bets on future loan prices.”                       price.
week to price, will likely need a longer period
of relative stability before borrowers can         In times of volatility, CLO managers look to       “The repricing window has officially shut. All
return.                                            ‘print and sprint’ strategies in which deals are   of the pulled deals so far have just been
                                                   priced without a warehouse in place with the       opportunistic repricings done on a ‘best
With funding markets closed, investors are
                                                   intention of buying assets post pricing.           efforts’ basis,” said one underwriter.
closely monitoring companies that have near-
term maturities they need to refinance, to         EU                                                 “Best efforts” deals can be put aside but those
assess whether they will be able to address                                                           that were already underwritten are not so
                                                   With the onset of coronavirus, there have now
those maturities.                                                                                     easily shelved in the same way. As margins in
                                                   been four consecutive weeks with no new
                                                                                                      primary start to widen, banks are facing flexes
As the only company with an active deal in the     issuance pricing in Europe. This marks the first
                                                                                                      in pricing before they even begin, which bodes
high yield market last week, this put Del Monte    time in ten years that there have been no new
                                                                                                      badly for underwriting.
Foods in an interesting catch-22. It was trying    deals in the first week of March, according
to refinance near-term maturities and could        to Debtwire Par data.                              “I’d say that if we have to step out and
struggle to do so amid the volatility; at the                                                         underwrite, it needs to be a very coronavirus-
                                                   The abrupt halt to deal activity came just after
same time, its earnings are likely to improve as                                                      safe credit,” said a second underwriter. “Pricing
                                                   the market saw the busiest February ever
demand for canned foods increases because                                                             etc has moved as well. We’ll be selective and
                                                   despite no new issuance in the last week of
of work from home policies and supply chain                                                           be super careful. There’s no point being brave.”
                                                   the month, according to the Debtwire Par data.

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Acuris                            Coronavirus Impact Analysis                                        11

Mergers & Acquisitions

M&A activity has not ground to a halt, though     rights, amended drop-dead dates and sellers
sale processes are expected to slow down and      retaining stakes.
some sellers may delay auctions, according
                                                  Cash bids may find favor over offers that
to surveys of deal makers by Mergermarket
                                                  contain stock since sellers cannot properly
in Europe and the US. There will no doubt be
                                                  assess a bidders’ future share price
a further hit if the primary market for debt
                                                  performance amid high volatility and do not
remains closed.
                                                  want the risk that a seller’s shareholders may
Coronavirus has impacted the basic logistics      vote down a bid. Look for a return of collars
of running a sale as countries close borders,     that increase the share exchange ratio if a
companies ban staff from traveling and            buyer’s stock price falls below a certain level.
industry conferences are cancelled. Where         “Best efforts,” rather than fully committed,
there is cultural fit (both corporate and         financing could also reappear.
national), dealmakers believe in-person
                                                  For already announced transactions,
meeting limitations may be overcome.
                                                  buyers and sellers may have to live with
Likewise, agreements between buyers and           pre-coronavirus terms. Most agreements
sellers on valuation will be tough to reach       do not allow for deal termination if there is
when dealmakers cannot make accurate              a general decline in share prices and the
predictions on future earnings. Public markets    broadly syndicated debt financing becomes
have declined over 20% and it will take sellers   unavailable. Instead, expect deal parties to
some time to adjust to the new reality.           slow peddle closes as they hope conditions
                                                  improve by summer.
Buyers and sellers will need to take additional
steps to share deal completion risk. Already
some announced deals have contained
clauses specifically carving out coronavirus as
not a rationale for deal termination.
Expect additional scrutiny of material adverse
change and material adverse effect clauses in
both M&A and financing agreements. Going
forward, there may be more emphasis on earn-
outs, deferred considerations/contingent value

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Acuris                            Coronavirus Impact Analysis                                                                                                                                                                                     12

Equity Capital Markets

The past few weeks market turmoil has               Spinoffs involve no bookbuild, but it will be
                                                                                                     Global Public Listings Sharply Down
hammered ECM activity in both Europe and            tough for companies’ boards to argue for
North America, with major public listings           unlocking conglomerate discounts when even
including AirBnB, Springer Nature and Jacobs        decent companies look like falling knives.
Douwe Egberts expected to be postponed.             United Technologies will test the market this
                                                    spring as the US industrial major is scheduled
IPO activity globally YTD is at the lowest level                                                                                                                                                                                400
                                                    to spin off its air conditioner and elevator                                50
since 2009, though by offering size it is only
                                                    businesses into independent companies.
the fourth slowest year since 2008, according
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                350
to Mergermarket data. So far this year 170          Rights issue and private placement activity
listings have been withdrawn or postponed           may suffer as exposure to the turbulent                                     40
compared to 109 in the same period of 2019.         markets makes rescue cash calls challenging.                                                                                                                                300
The decline has been most notable in Asia, the      Nevertheless, the potential impact on
first region hit by coronavirus.                    companies’ balance sheets mean some could
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                250
                                                    require equity injections. Listed companies
Key to a successful IPO is low market volatility,

                                                                                                       Offering size (USD bn)
                                                                                                                                30
                                                    in the hard-hit leisure and logistics sectors

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      IPO count
which provides greater certainty about the
                                                    may have to seek minority investments or                                                                                                                                    200
pricing environment and valuation expectations.
                                                    put themselves on the block rather than tap
ECM bankers like to place stock in a CBOE
                                                    shareholders for cash. As for convertible bond
Volatility Index sweet spot of 15 to 20.                                                                                        20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                150
                                                    issuance, boards are unlikely to sign off on
In trading on Monday, the VIX hit 82, exceeding
                                                    dilutive equity linked paper issuance in the
levels hit during the financial crisis. In such
                                                    middle of a correction.                                                                                                                                                     100
conditions it is tough to see how IPOs can
                                                                                                                                10
move forward absent significant pre-placing
with cornerstone investors. Listings by                                                                                                                                                                                         50
introduction might be possible but few may
want to send new stocks into the current storm.
                                                                                                                                0                                                                                               0
The market rout comes as investors were                                                                                              YTD    YTD    YTD    YTD    YTD    YTD    YTD    YTD    YTD    YTD    YTD    YTD    YTD
                                                                                                                                     2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   2018   2019   2020
already showing skepticism about unprofitable
growth companies with 2019 bellwethers Uber
and Lyft trading down and WeWork abandoning
plans to list. Growth companies now will have to
look at funding options beyond IPOs, such as                                                                                    Offering size               IPO count
debt financing, minority stake sales or M&A.

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Acuris                           Coronavirus Impact Analysis                                                                                                                                      13

Sector Impact

Consumer: Canned goods producers such             Financial Services: As things stand, bank         in government reimbursements, face even          prices caused by coronavirus and Saudi
as Campbell Soup Company and Kraft                collapses seem unlikely: Basel III capital        more uncertainty over liabilities connected to   Arabia’s decision to increase output. US
Heinz have traded relatively well                 rules mean balance sheets are more robust;        coronavirus spreading in facilities.             producers have largely used high-yield bonds
as traders hope hoarding and prolonged            there are countercyclical buffers that can                                                         and equity issuance to fund massive capital
                                                                                                    Leisure: Casinos, restaurants and movie
quarantines lead to higher sales after years      be relaxed, easing capital requirements and                                                        investments over the past decade. The market
                                                                                                    theaters are facing immediate challenges as
of canned products being out of favor with        allowing greater lending in times of need, at                                                      is now showing little faith in the companies as
                                                                                                    consumers avoid public gatherings
consumers. Food startups that attracted           the discretion of macroprudential supervisors.                                                     output exceeds demand and product costs
                                                                                                    across the world. Debt from movie
technology-company valuations as investors        The exception is Italy – where even reasonable                                                     are above the price of oil. The S&P U.S. High
                                                                                                    theater groups Cineworld and AMC
looked to capitalize on the “better-for-you”      forbearance may dent a long damaged and                                                            Yield Corporate Bond Energy Index is down
                                                                                                    Entertainment have fallen dramatically in the
food trend, meanwhile, may be in for a rude       over-banked market: rescues and emergency                                                          28.4% MTD compared to the S&P 500 10+
                                                                                                    past few weeks with AMC’s bonds losing 30
awakening as consumers shy away from their        consolidation cannot be ruled out. Generally,                                                      Year High Yield Corporate Bond Index, which is
                                                                                                    points. UK-based Cineworld has been trying
products in a recession. This may lead to         however, central banks are more aware of the                                                       down 10.3% for the same period.
                                                                                                    to close the acquisition of its Canadian peer
a major reduction in deal valuations.             liquidity role they can play to insulate banks.
                                                                                                    Cineplex using already-placed leveraged
                                                  Solvency II rules on insurers are comparatively                                                    European issuers in the oil and gas space have
The global fashion supply chain has been                                                            loan financing, but equity markets have been
                                                  less tested – and corona impact remains an                                                         lost an average of ten points. The sector has
deeply affected by China’s lockdown. Not only                                                       skeptical the deal will close.
                                                  unknown. The trend towards asset manager                                                           around EUR 26.2bn-equivalent of European
are many clothes made in the country, but one
                                                  consolidation seems likely to be pursued once                                                      high yield bonds and accounts for nearly
third of luxury purchases are made by Chinese                                                       Buysiders are closely watching if casino
                                                  the dust settles as mangers stand to collect                                                       5.2% of Credit Rubric’s high yield universe of
consumers. Now as China reopens, the                                                                operator Eldorado Resorts brings USD 7bn in
                                                  even fewer fees and investors exit debt and                                                        967 notes. EnQuest led the losses. The UK-
production of luxury goods in Italy will likely                                                     debt financing to market to fund its purchase
                                                  equity funds.                                                                                      headquartered oil company’s USD 650m 7%
decline in response to the coronavirus crisis.                                                      of rival Caesars Entertainment. Shares of
                                                                                                                                                     senior unsecured 2022 bonds collapsed 43
                                                  Healthcare/pharma: Major pharma companies         both companies have dropped dramatically
Events: Companies that organize concerts                                                                                                             points to 49-mid, while peer Tullow Oil’s USD
                                                  have not been immune (pardon the pun) to          over the past month. The debt was expected
and sporting events have been hit as countries                                                                                                       800m 7% senior unsecured 2025s dived 39
                                                  stock falls. However, niche segments are well     to launch towards the end of March.
ban mass gatherings. Debt issued by European                                                                                                         points to 37-mid.
                                                  placed to benefit. China’s digital healthcare
concert ticket group Viagogo and US
                                                  sector will have increasing government            Over in Europe, Spain-headquartered gaming
concert promoter Live Nation are trading                                                                                                             On the M&A front, already-announced
                                                  support, we have reported. Just one               company Codere’s lost 30 points to 56-
down. NEP Group, which provides                                                                                                                      deals will likely take longer to close as
                                                  example: Ping An Health and Technology saw        mid and German gaming group Loewen Play
production equipment for events like the                                                                                                             vendors and bidders wait for some measure
                                                  a 10x increase in users over 22 Jan-6 Feb. US     paper shed 20 points. UK-headquartered pizza
Olympics and the Oscars, has also seen                                                                                                               of stability, and subsequent readjustment
                                                  healthcare IT companies could also attract        restaurant chain PizzaExpress and Greek
its debt fall. Nevertheless, UK live theater                                                                                                         of valuations. Ongoing transactions that
                                                  attention. Vaccine developers would seem          gaming company Intralot bonds dived deeper
venue operator Ambassador Theatre                                                                                                                    will likely be impacted include the buyout
                                                  hot, but the effort will be commoditized once     into distressed territory.
Group recently hired financial advisors to                                                                                                           of Tallgrass Energy, Premier Oil’s acquisitions,
                                                  a viable drug is released. US nursing home
prepare for a sale. Coronavirus may delay the                                                       Oil & gas: Oil and gas companies have faced      debt restructuring and equity raise, the
                                                  operators, already under pressure due to cuts
launch of the process.                                                                              a direct hit from the dramatic decline in oil    ongoing sales of Siccar Point and Zennor

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Acuris                             Coronavirus Impact Analysis                                                                                            14

Sector Impact

Petroleum, and the sale of Shell’s Western           that facilitate remote work and learning.          Cruises’ stock price has collapsed from over
Desert assets in Egypt. Wintershall                  US distance learning group 2U is in the            USD 130 in January to just over USD 32 on
DEA, Neptune Energy and Ithaca                       late stages of exploring a sale, according         Friday. The company has suspended all cruises
Energy were all tentatively expected to go           to Mergermarket, and may offer an indication       until mid-April.
public this year, but crude below USD 50/            on whether buyers are willing to pay up to
                                                                                                        Online booking service AirBnb has reportedly
bbl makes these look dicey. The expected             capitalize on the trend.
                                                                                                        suspended plans for its initial public offering
North Sea sales of Centrica’s Spirit Energy
                                                     Video game producers have been resilient, but      amid volatility. The startup is under pressure
joint venture and Exxon’s UK portfolio will
                                                     supply issues and major industry conference        to go public due to terms of the equity
undoubtedly take longer now to launch.
                                                     cancellations may limit game rollout.              compensation offered to employees.
Retail: European retailers and                       Advertising groups will feel the pinch as global
                                                                                                        Even Boeing, already struggling due to the 737
supermarkets have seen debt trade off                growth prospects dim.
                                                                                                        Max fiasco, has seen its IG debt come under
with Dutch retailer Hema, UK frozen food
                                                     Travel: Stocks, loans and bonds from airlines,     stress with bonds trading below par. A dividend
supermarket Iceland Foods, UK value clothing
                                                     rental car companies and cruise                    cut and capital raise to boost liquidity cannot
firm Matalan, Spanish discount chain DIA,
                                                     operators are plunging as consumers and            be ruled out.
French retailer Casino and German perfume
                                                     businesses cancel travel plans. Regional UK
and jewellery Douglas bonds all falling to
                                                     airline group FlyBe has already gone under
stressed levels. On average, retailers’ high yield
                                                     and airlines are forecast to lose over USD
names were seven and three-quarter points
                                                     100bn in revenue. The pain may worsen over
lower last week.
                                                     the course of the month following the US’s
TMT/Software: Telecom media and                      decision to bar Europeans from entering the
technology companies have not seen their             country and many European countries likewise
debt and equity drop as much as other                closing their borders.
sectors. However, investors are keeping a close
                                                     Additional restructurings and distressed capital
eye on any companies that have to do with
                                                     raises seem inevitable.
gathering such as dating app operators Match
Group and Magiclab. Supply chain worries             American Express Global Business Travel,
from China have likewise impacted some major         which just two weeks ago overcame virus
tech companies.                                      concerns to raise USD 1.1bn of loans to
                                                     refinance debt and fund an acquisition, will
If a recession hits, software companies
                                                     be an interesting test case of how travel
that produce “nice to have” B2B
                                                     companies treat acquisition plans given the
products may take a hit as customers
                                                     disruption.
look to cut spending. Unprofitable SaaS
companies owned by PE with HY debt are               Norwegian cruise business Hurtigruten
particularly at risk as they have limited cushion    Group’s EUR 300m senior secured 2025
if revenue growth comes to a halt.                   notes plunged 21.5 points to 80-mid versus
Dealmakers are starting to look at companies         par reoffer on 30 January. Royal Caribbean

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Acuris                           Coronavirus Impact Analysis                                                                                                  15

Asset Backed Securities

Asset backed securities have not been immune       cancellations. Big names in the sector including     timing. Widening market spreads will change
to market turmoil. Spreads have widened on         Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Ryman Hospitality            the economics of securitization, particularly for
residential and commercial mortgage bonds          Properties, Pebblebrook Hotel Trust and              legacy assets with limited excess spread. In the
and new issuance has been delayed.                 Sunstone Hotel Investors have pulled guidance.       longer term, an uptick in non-performing loans
                                                   And they aren’t alone — companies from all           will likely lead to a new round of portfolio sales/
In the US, MFA Financial last week put a hold
                                                   corners of the hospitality industry are beginning    securitizations, subject to any extraordinary
on its debut non-qualifying RMBs as fears of a
                                                   to rethink their 2020 forecasts, including Hyatt     relief from regulators, as seen in China.  
prolonged US economic slump turned investors
                                                   Hotels and Vail Resorts.
away from risky assets including the residential                                                        Like with M&A auctions, coronavirus has
loans they were enamored of just a few weeks       Spreads in the secondary whole business ABS          prevented commercial real estate buyers and
earlier. Many investors who have been sanguine     market have finally stopped tightening. WBS          sellers from transaction.
or bullish on residential real estate have         bonds had been trading at their tightest levels
                                                                                                        “Some deals are likely being delayed as there
suddenly chosen to back off from the sector for    in two years in late January and early February,
                                                                                                        is a lot of uncertainty and selling property is
fear of being immediately underwater on their      but spreads have begun to widen.
                                                                                                        becoming difficult as we can’t do site visits,”
bets as spreads widen, while some are turning
                                                   EU                                                   said one German broker.
defensive on speculation that the spread of
corona will worsen and tip the US and other        Coronavirus is similarly expected to impact          The longer-term impact of coronavirus is harder
global economies into recession.                   European ABS in terms of bond cashflows and          to gauge as it depends on how long the crisis
                                                   supply. Direct impacts include reduced foot          will last. This is especially the case for real
CMBS showed some signs of stabilizing
                                                   traffic at shopping centers in CMBS, disruption      estate markets that follow the economy with a
Tuesday after spreads blew out near correction
                                                   to mortgage payments (including from voluntary       time lag. Deals may resume, but a coronavirus-
levels Monday amid the broader market rout.
                                                   or government-imposed payment holidays),             induced recession will impact tenants and
Fannie Mae priced a USD 426m Multifamily
                                                   increased defaults in leveraged loan and SME         landlords.
Connecticut Avenue Securities 2020-01 on
                                                   CLOs, and reduced supply in sectors such
Tuesday, though the harsh turn in financial                                                             “I wouldn’t say that people are stalling, but
                                                   as auto ABS as sales contract. How these
markets forced it to widen spreads in parts                                                             they are certainly slowing down,” said a hotel
                                                   expected changes impact securities will be
of the deal. Separately, the managers of the                                                            investment advisor. “It is very hard to be bidding
                                                   highly jurisdiction and deal specific - do sellers
long-awaited USD 1.9bn casino CMBS, which                                                               in the current climate. The market is still there,
                                                   have to compensate ABS issuers for payment
hit the market on 5 March, are holding off for                                                          investors haven’t gone away, but it is definitely
                                                   holidays, for instance, and if not, how much
a few days before attempting to price the                                                               more challenging to commit to a number now.
                                                   liquidity protection is available?
transactions.                                                                                           We don’t know what the likely outcome will be,
                                                   Indirect impacts will be felt from the economic      but we are hopeful that there will be greater
Hotel and lodging REITs, meanwhile, are
                                                   fallout - for instance, unemployment is a big        visibility soon.”
withdrawing their full-year 2020 guidance
                                                   driver of defaults in most ABS asset classes,
because of corona related hotel room
                                                   though interest rate cuts may push back the

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Eric Homer            Romil Timbadia
Tim Hynes             John West
Cassidy Luo
Adam Samoon
Abigail Summerville
Matthew Tizik
Bill Weisbrod
John WIlen

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