COVID-19 economic data tracker - Truist
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COVID-19 economic data tracker
Michael Skordeles, AIF®
Week 19 – May 14, 2021
Senior U.S. Macro Strategist
Trend watch and what’s new this week We also highlight apartment rental payment rates (slide 8). Rental
payment rates didn’t get as bad as many feared and has steadily
There were three more significant developments this week. First, the improved in recently months.
city-state of Singapore has backtracked, re-imposing limitations on
dining and gatherings for at least four weeks. It joins India and Brazil, Lastly, we updated card spending by category (slide 9). Four of the
which are struggling with variants, as a hotspot. six spending categories are up compared to the pre-pandemic
baseline. More importantly, spending on services – including hotels,
On the positive side, 12 to 15 year olds in the U.S. are now allowed to restaurants, entertainment and transportation – are clearly improving.
get the vaccines after extensive trials. Also, the CDC lifted its mask
guidance for fully-vaccinated people after infections were cut by 94%
Bottom line
for them. That said, masks are not going away quite yet since just
over a third of Americans are fully vaccinated. Overall economic activity remains solid. We maintain the recent
improvement results from a trifecta of factors—better weather, a
The pace of U.S. vaccinations remains at 2.1 million doses per day
further reopening by states, and fiscal support, particularly the
(slide 4). We updated the percentage of population fully vaccinated by
stimulus checks. Vaccines are also a positive contributing factor.
state (slide 6), which remains uneven. No pattern is readily apparent
Additional activities are slowly reopening literally by the day. This is
for the differences by state, which suggests the reasons are more
causing a virtuous cycle for the U.S. economy, especially for jobs in
nuanced.
the coming months (see slide 7).
We continue to see further improvement in the activity-based
However, as Singapore, India, and Brazil illustrate, the pandemic is
indicators. This week, we highlight the staffing index, which tracks the
not completely in our rear-view mirror. Given global supply chains, the
hiring of temporary and contract workers (slide 7). Adding temps
global economy will continue to deal with COVID-19, which has
indicates a need for more workers, which tends to be a good
caused bottlenecks and production issues for key components, such
harbinger of eventually increasing permanent jobs.
as semiconductors.U.S. COVID-19 economic data tracker matrix
Relative
Indicator What we’re watching
trend
New cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are trending lower. Vaccination efforts have climbed to
U.S. state reopenings
2.1M/doses administered per day. Overall activity remains increasing as weather continues to warm.
TSA air passenger Weekly passenger rose 9.5% WoW, the largest WoW jump since mid-March, to 10.9 million. But passenger
throughput counts are -31.8% below the 2019 weekly average of 16.1 million. Warmer weather and vacccine are helping.
OpenTable restaurant Up to -19.1% YoY. While no states are below -50%, NYC, DC, and San Fran still are. Six states are now above
bookings +10%: IN (10.0%), CT (11.6%), AZ (13.8%), TX (14.7%), FL (26.0%), and NV (27.5%).
Grocery/Pharmacy jumped to 4%, while parks slipped to 23%. 7-day average relative to 2020: Transit -22%,
Google mobility Residential +5%, Retail/Restaurant/Recreation -5%, Workplaces -24%.
Demand rose, but occupancy slipped for a second week, to 56.7%, as supply is also increasing from both new
Hotel occupancy properties and reopenings. Average daily rate increased to $110.19, the highest since the pandemic.
Apartment rent Rent payments through May 6 were 80.0%, up from 79.8% in April ’21, but roughly flat from 80.2% in May ’20.
payments Full month rents for April ‘21 were 95.6%, down from April ’21 but up from post-pandemic average of 94.7%.
Rail carloads fell 3.2% WoW, though remain seasonally strong. Volumes at the top 2 ports (LA and Long
Freight Beach) dipped in April, but would still be an all-time high. Freight experts are now calling the continuous heavy
volume ‘perpetual peak’, which should last through at least the summer.
Rose for the fourth week in a row to 94.4, just below the mid-March peak of 94.9. It remains near the highest
Staffing index level since Dec. ’19 and well-above the low for this cycle of 59.6 set back in April ’20.
Sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Our World in Data, Transportation Security Administration, OpenTable,
Trend relative to whether it is favorable for economic growth: Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Report, STR/CoStar, National Multifamily Housing Council Rent
Positive Negative Neutral / Mixed Payment Tracker, American Staffing Association. Week-over-weak and year-over-year change are abbreviated
as WoW and YoY, respectively.Further improvement in all of the key U.S. virus trends
New confirmed cases 7-day moving average Tests performed 7-day moving average
300,000
2,500,000 1,215,090
250,000
2,000,000
200,000
150,000 1,500,000
35,514
100,000 1,000,000
50,000 500,000
0 0
Jul-20
Jul-20
Mar-21
May-21
Oct-20
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
Nov-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Sep-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
Jan-21
Jul-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
Apr-21
Nov-20
Dec-20
Dec-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
150,000 Total hospitalized currently U.S. COVID-19 deaths
4,000
Total deaths (r-axis)
600,000
100,000 3,000
33,941 Change in deaths
7-DMA (l-axis) 632 400,000
2,000
50,000
1,000 200,000
0 - 0
Jul-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Mar-21
Mar-21
May-21
Apr-21
Nov-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Sep-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
Jan-21
Jul-20
May-21
Oct-20
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
Data Sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, Johns Hopkins University through May 13, 2020. Data for 50 U.S. states plus American Samoa, Washington D.C., Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin
Islands. 7-day moving average (DMA).Vaccinations ramping higher globally, U.S. leads in fully vaccinated
400 Cumulative vaccine doses administered Fully vaccinated by region (in millions)
(in millions)
341.0
300 China (366.9M) World
United States (266.6M) (1.4B, not shown)
200 European Union (188.9M)
India (178.4M) 132.2 119.0
United Kingdom (54.8M) 87.1 85.7
100
Brazil (50.3M) 30.0
5.7
0
World North United Europe Asia South Africa
America States America
U.S. vaccine doses administered per day U.S. vaccinations (percentage of population)
4.0 (7-DMA, in millions)
Fully vaccinated At least one dose
3.0M 84.0%
3.0 71.8%
58.9%
2.0 46.6% 45.6%
35.8%
2.1M
1.0
0.0 % of total population % of adults % of Americans over 65
Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21
Sources: Truist IAG and the following additional sources respectively: Top left and right: Our World in Data, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), through May 13, 2021. China figures reported weekly
though March 19, daily thereafter. U.S. figures includes all 50 states plus Washington D.C., U.S. military installations and territories. Figures for the United Kingdom are not included in the European Union. Bottom left:
Bloomberg, CDC, through May 13, 2021; left chart is 7-day moving average (DMA). Bottom right: CDC, through May 13, 2021; adults are 18 years of age and over.Reopening trends continue improving
NY Fed weekly economic index 75 U.S. community mobility (7-day average)
16% 11.6% 50
12% 25
8% 0
4%
0% -25
-4% -50 Grocery & Pharmacy Transit
-8% -75 Workplaces Parks
-12%
-100 Residential Retail & Recreation
20% OpenTable bookings year-over-year % TSA checkpoint traveler throughput
change (7-day average) 2,500,000 (7-day average)
0%
1,568,875
2,000,000
-20%
-40% 1,500,000
-60% -19.1% 1,000,000
-80% 500,000
-100% 0
May-20
Jul-20
May-21
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
Sources: Truist IAG and the following additional sources respectively: Top left: Bloomberg, NY Federal Reserve Weekly Economic Index through May 8, 2021. Top right: (U.S. Community Mobility) Google COVID-19
Community Mobility Reports 7-day average through May 9. Bottom left: Bloomberg, OpenTable 7-day average through May 13. Bottom right: Bloomberg, Transportation Security Administration (TSA) 7-day average
through May 13.Vaccinations by state remain uneven
Vaccinations by state remain uneven. Many Fully vaccinated as percentage of population
pundits have tried to ascribe several rationales AK ME
for the differences, including a red/blue political
divide, North/South, or urban/rural. Yet, a
pattern is less apparent in reality, which WI VT NH
suggests the reasons are more nuanced.
For instance, a reliably ‘red’ state like South WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
Dakota (40.3%) is among the top states as
percentage of population, while reliably ‘blue’
states like Illinois (35.3%) and Oregon (37.3%) OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
are barely out of the bottom third.
Or, urban areas like District of Columbia (37%)
and states like New Hampshire (35.2%) are CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
closer to the bottom, while rural states like
Vermont (44.8%) and Maine (47.3%) are near
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
the top.
OK LA MS AL GA
HI TX Above 40% FL
Between 31%-39%
Below 30%
Sources: Truist IAG, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), through May 13, 2021.Companies adding temp staff again
Companies continue to hire temporary and contract
U.S. staffing index
workers. The staffing index steadily increased
throughout the second half of 2020. It has roughly 110
recovering to pre-pandemic levels, a great sign.
94.4
Through early May, it jumped to 94.4, the highest 100
level since December 2019.
Temp positions are traditionally very seasonal and,
thus, the data is quite volatile, especially around 90
holidays. Nonetheless, an increase indicates a need
for more workers, which tends to be a good harbinger
of eventually increasing permanent jobs. 80
70
60
50
40
Feb-18
Apr-18
Oct-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Oct-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Aug-18
Aug-19
Aug-20
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Sources: Truist IAG, Bloomberg, American Staffing Association through May 3. The index tracks weekly
changes in temporary and contract employment, with a reference value set at 100 for the week of June 12,
2006. Figures are not seasonally adjusted. .Apartment rental payment rate continues to improve
Rental payments have improved in 2021. Payments through the 6th of the month (left chart) were 80% in May, up from the pandemic low of 76.4% in
September. The full-month payment rate (right chart) in April was 95.6%, above the 2020 average of 95.1%, but remains slightly below the 2019 average
of 96.2%.
Apartment rents by 6th of the month Apartment rental payment rate
84.5%
End of month
82.9% 83.2%
2020 average = 95.1%
79.7% 80.8% 75.4% 80.0%
79.4% 81.0% 80.4%
80.4% 97.7%
78.0% 96.6% 97.2%
76.4% 79.2%
96.6% 96.6% 95.7%
94.8%
95.9% 95.9% 95.9%
76.6% 94.5%
96.0% 95.6%
95.5%
95.8% 95.1% 95.1% 93.8%
95.2% 94.6% 94.6%
95.8% 93.5%
93.6%
93.2%
May-19
Jul-19
May-20
Jul-20
May-21
Apr-19
Oct-19
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
Nov-19
Dec-19
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-19
Sep-19
Aug-20
Sep-20
Jun-19
Jan-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
May-19
Jul-19
May-20
Jul-20
Apr-19
Oct-19
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
Nov-19
Dec-19
Nov-20
Dec-20
Aug-19
Sep-19
Aug-20
Sep-20
Jun-19
Jan-20
Jun-20
Jan-21
Sources: Truist IAG, National Multifamily Housing Council Rent Payment Tracker. Data shown is for
professionally managed apartment units.Consumer spending on services improving
The pandemic has greatly impacted consumer
Change in card spending by category
spending. Although not as comprehensive as
traditional retail sales, card spending data shows that Overall Spending Hotel/Food Services
while overall spending is up 12.4% compared to the Arts/Entertainment/Recreation Gen'l Merchandise Stores
pre-pandemic baseline, it has shifted greatly between
Groceries Health Care
the categories. 80% Transportation
General merchandise recently snuck into the top
spot, up 14%, just ahead of grocery spending, which 60%
is up 13%. Hotel/food service, which includes
restaurants, just crossed into positive territory, up 40%
0.6%.
20%
Two of the six categories remain in negative territory,
as entertainment and transportation spending are 0%
-32% and -25%, respectively. Still, spending on
services appears to be steadily improving. Also, this -20%
data does not capture many other services, including
most of health care and auto sales, many of which -40%
are not paid by cards.
-60%
-80%
-100%
Data Sources: Truist IAG, Haver, Affinity Solutions via Opportunity Insights; daily values of credit/debit card spending are a seven-day moving average, seasonally adjusting by dividing each calendar date's
2020 value by its corresponding 2019 value, then indexed relative to pre-COVID-19 by dividing the series by its average value over January 4-31, 2020 baseline; data through April 23.Disclosures Securities and insurance products and services – Are not FDIC or any other government agency insured | are not bank guaranteed | may lose value Advisory managed account programs entail risks, including possible loss of principal and may not be suitable for all investors. Please speak to your advisor to request a firm brochure which includes program details, including risks, fees and expenses. Truist Wealth is a marketing name used by Truist Financial Corporation. Services offered by the following affiliates of Truist Financial Corporation: Banking products and services, including loans and deposit accounts, are provided by SunTrust Bank and Branch Banking and Trust Company, both now Truist Bank, Member FDIC. Trust and investment management services are provided by SunTrust Bank and Branch Banking and Trust Company, both now Truist Bank, and SunTrust Delaware Trust Company. Securities, brokerage accounts and /or insurance (including annuities) are offered by Truist Investment Services, Inc., and P.J. Robb Variable Corp., which are each SEC registered broker-dealers, members FINRA, SIPC, and a licensed insurance agency where applicable. Life insurance products are offered through Truist Life Insurance Services, a division of Crump Life Insurance Services, Inc., AR license #100103477, a wholly owned subsidiary of Truist Insurance Holdings, Inc. Investment advisory services are offered by Truist Advisory Services, Inc., GFO Advisory Services, LLC, Sterling Capital Management, LLC, and Precept Advisory Group, LLC, each SEC registered investment advisers. Sterling Capital Funds are advised by Sterling Capital Management, LLC. While this information is believed to be accurate, Truist Financial Corporation, including its affiliates, does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of, or otherwise endorse these analyses or market data. The opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but Truist Financial Corporation makes no representation or guarantee as to their timeliness, accuracy or completeness or for their fitness for any particular purpose. The information contained herein does not purport to be a complete analysis of any security, company, or industry involved. This material is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Opinions and information expressed herein are subject to change without notice. TIS and/or its affiliates, including your Advisor, may have issued materials that are inconsistent with or may reach different conclusions than those represented in this commentary, and all opinions and information are believed to be reflective of judgments and opinions as of the date that material was originally published. TIS is under no obligation to ensure that other materials are brought to the attention of any recipient of this commentary. Comments regarding tax implications are informational only. Truist and its representatives do not provide tax or legal advice. You should consult your individual tax or legal professional before taking any action that may have tax or legal consequences. Investments involve risk and an investor may incur either profits or losses. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance. TIS/TAS shall accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of this material, nor shall TIS/TAS treat any recipient of this material as a customer or client simply by virtue of the receipt of this material. The information herein is for persons residing in the United States of America only and is not intended for any person in any other jurisdiction. The information contained in this material is produced and copyrighted by Truist Financial Corporation and any unauthorized use, duplication, redistribution or disclosure is prohibited by law. TIS/TAS’s officers, employees, agents and/or affiliates may have positions in securities, options, rights, or warrants mentioned or discussed in this material. © 2021 Truist Financial Corporation. Truist, the Truist logo and Truist purple are service marks of Truist Financial Corporation CN2021-2005 EXP 12-2021
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