COVID-19 Outbreak on International Tourism - Global ...
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Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on International Tourism
WTFI presented an up-dated assessment of the reaction of the tourism industry to the outbreak of COVID-19, showing a decline in international arrivals and receipts in 2020.
The World Tourism Forum Institute calls for the importance of the tourism sector in the recovery strategies of governments, foreign agencies and organizations. The World Health Organization (WHO) urges countries suffering from COVID-19 outbreaks to enforce travel or trade restrictions, but many governments have defied this and have placed bans or limitations on other nations. Regarding international tourist arrivals, WTFI has revise its 2020 outlook from 1% to 3%. WTFI expected growth of 3% to 4% before the COVID 19 outbreak. The effect on medical tourism is not yet understood but it is expected to be very badly affected.
WTFI notes that steps to minimize undue disruptions on travel and trade must be enforced in the light of public health; and WTFI has been working closely together with the WHO since the start of the outbreak to guarantee this. Taking into account the evolution of the situation, WTFI states that the effect of the COVID-19 on international tourism is SARS too early to estimate. In view of the scenario, of the global market size and dynamics of the travel industry and its existing threats to travel, COVID-19 geographical distribution and future economic effects, WTFI analyzed the international travel market's 2020 prospects from 1% to 3%. WTFI expected growth of 3% to 4% before the COVID 19 outbreak. are projected to be the worst affected area with an estimated decline in arrivals of 9 to 12, down from 5% to 6% projected rise. Estimates of the rapidly developing situation in other world regions are currently premature.
A Call for Financial and Political Support
WTFI has called for financial and political support for tourism recovery initiatives and for the sector's support to be integrated into broader recovery efforts and actions of the economies affected. The effect of COVID-19 is felt across the entire chain of interest for tourism. Around 80 per cent of the tourism sector comprise small and medium-sized enterprises and are primarily vulnerable to millions of livelihoods worldwide, including in poor communities, dependent upon tourism.
Policy and financial commitments are crucial to ensuring that tourism will contribute to an even broader economic and social recovery, as has been shown in previous crises as the industry is highly resilient and can regenerate steadily. Notwithstanding periodic surprises, international tourism has seen continued growth, demonstrating the power and durability of the industry and benefiting every region in the world. Global tourism has decreased only in 2003 after the SARS and the Iraq war and 2009 in the midst of the economic and financial crisis. The tourism industry is currently one of the most severely hit by the COVID-19 outbreak, with an impact on both travel and demand, particularly in China, the world's leading spending outbound market, and other main Asian and European destinations, such as Italy. The availability of transportation services – domestic and foreign – has diminished dramatically and demand has decreased. Transport restrictions and cancelation and frequency cuts have decreased.
A NEW
DOWNSIDE
RISK:
In the background of an already weakened
global economy, COVID-19 has become a
new downside risk. The outbreak of
COVID-19 is followed by an unpredictable
scenario of ongoing economic, social and
commercial conflicts and an unequal
output between large outbound transport
markets.
The Director General of the WHO has
declared the outbreak of COVID-19 a
Public Hygiene Emergency of International
Concern in the light of the advice given
by the International Health Review
Regulations (COVID-19 Emergency
Committee).K e y Facts
The public health situation is
unprecedented. Keeping the pandemic is
the top priority and all measures taken to
contain the epidemic should be sponsored
by tourism. To ensure organized and
efficient response, WTFI works in close
partnership with the World Health
Organization (WHO), its member
states and industry.The outbreak of COVID-19 has brought
down our world with a never-ending
effect on our lives, economies,
communities and our livelihoods and
the chances of a global recession and
significant job losses are rising.The rapidly evolving environment
rapidly overcomes any estimation of
the effect of this unprecedented crisis
on the tourism sector.Given the unprecedented and rapidly
changing nature of the crisis, the effect
of COVID-19 on international tourism is
extremely difficult to estimate.Based on the latest developments
(quarantine measures, travel bans & border
closures in most of Europe, which
represents 50% of international tourism,
and in many countries of the Americas,
Africa and the Middle East), the evolutions
in Asia and the Pacific and the patterns
of previous crises (2003 SARS and 2009
global economic crisis), WTFI estimates
international tourist arrivals could
decline by 20% to 30% in 2020.That will mean a loss of USD 300-450 billion in receipts for international tourism (exports), about a third from the world's worst-case estimate of US$ 1.5 trillion.
The size, uncertainty and unparalleled
nature of the crisis should be viewed with
caution. The latest comparisons are SARS
and the 2009 global economic crisis,
but this crises are no different. The effect
of COVID-19 on international tourism
will still be tracked by WTFI.
2020 Forecast - International Tourist Arrivals, World (Millions)
2020 (Estimate)
COVID-19
1,020 1,170
-290 to -440 Million
-20% to -30%
1600 International
Tourism Could
Drop Back To
Levels of
2012-2014
1400 2003 SARS 2009
-3 Million Global Economic Crisis 1460
-0.4% -37 Million -4.0% 1408
1333
1243
1200 1197
1097 1143
1044
997
1000 952
912 929 929
855 892
809
800 694 691 756
674 674
600
400
200
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20202020 Forecast - International Tourist Arrivals, World (%Change)
15
10
5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-5
2011 2003
Sept 11th SARS 2009
-10
Attacks Epidemic Global Economic
Crisis
-15
-20
2020
(Estimate)
-25 COVID-10
-20%to -30%
-30
2020 Forecast - International Tourist Arrivals, World (Millions)
2020 (Estimate)
COVID-19
1,060 1,210
-300 to -450 US
Billion -20% to -30%
1600
2009 1507
1400 2003 SARS
Global Economic Crisis
-88 US Billion
1463
+50 US Billion -5.4% (Real Terms)
1351
-1.4% (Real Terms)
1200
1224 1285 1253
1135 1227
1096
1000 979
892 989 901
707 774
800 506 555 658
496 485
600
400
200
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2020 Forecast - International Tourism Receipts, World (Real Change, %)
15
10
5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-5
2011 2003
Sept 11th SARS 2009
-10
Attacks Epidemic Global Economic
Crisis
-15
-20
2020
(Estimate)
COVID-10
-25
-20%to -30%
(Nominal)
-30Estimated Global Impacts
-290 to 440 5 to 7
million years
International Lost in number
Tourist Arrivals of tourists
-300 to 450 US 1/3 of 1.5 Us
Bn Trillion
Tourism Exports Lost in Tourism
(Receipts) Exports
Estimated impact of COVID-19 on air transport in 2020
(RPKs and air passenger revenue loss), IATA
Est. Impact on Pass
Region of Airline % Change in RPKS Revenue 2020 vs. 2019
Registration (2020 vs. 2019) (US Billion)
Africa -31% -4
Asia Pacific -37% -88
Europe -46% -76
Latin America -41% -15
Middle East -39% -19
North America -27% -50
Industry -38% -252
Source: IATA
Importance of international tourism in countries with most reported cases
of COVID-19 (over 5,000 cases, 24 March 2020
As of 24 March 2020, a total of 196 countries and territories have reported cases of COVID 19
Countries with more Share of World Tourism Share of Exports Share of World Share of World
than 5K COVID-19 reported Tourist Arrivals the Country (%) Tourism Receipts Tourism Expenditure
cases (%) (%) (%)
China %4 %1 %3 %19
Italy %4 %8 %4 %2
United States %5 %10 %15 %10
Spain %6 %16 %5 %2
Germany %3 %3 %3 %7
Iran %1 %6 %0 %1
Republic of Korea %6 %3 %4 %3
France %1 %8 %1 %2
Switzerland %1 %5 %1 %2
United Kingdom %3 %6 %4 %5
TOTAL %34 %39 %53SUPPORTING RECOVERY
What we don’t know - we don’t know when we will we see the end of this crisis. What we do know: we know that millions of jobs are at risk, that we need to protect the most vulnerable segments such as SMEs, self-employed, women and youth. That we need to create survival mechanisms for companies. We know we need strong support in navigating the unparalleled social and economic impact of COVID19. In the immediate, we need urgent fiscal and monetary measures that help protect jobs, sustain the self-employed and support companies' liquidity and operations and accelerate recovery in the future. Tourism is a major job creator, especially for more vulnerable groups - women and youth. It is also a sector with proven capacity to bounce back and multiply recovery to other sectors. Coordinated and strong mitigation and recovery plans to support the sector can generate massive returns across the whole economy and jobs.
International Tourism History of Growth
1.5 Billion in 2019
Total International Tourist Arrivals
US 1.7 Trillion in 2018
Total International Tourist Exports (Receipts & Passenter Transport)
7% 7%
6%
5% 5% 5% 5%
4% 4% 4%
2%
International Tourist Arrivals
AVERAGE GROWTH 2009-2019
-4%
1,461
Million
2011 20039
Sept 11 2003 Global Economic
SARS Crisis
675 +64%
Since
2009
Million
Since
+117% 2000
‘08
‘98
‘00
‘04
‘09
‘99
‘06
‘96
‘03
‘05
‘95
‘02
‘07
‘97
‘18
‘01
‘10
‘14
‘16
‘19
‘13
‘15
‘12
‘17
‘11
Following occasional surprises, international tourism has seen
its sustained growth show the strength and durability of the
industry and benefited many of the world's regions.However, this crisis is like no other and calls for fast, concerted
action.
International Tourism & Previous Crises
International tourist arrivals in Asia Pacific during SARS and worldwide during 2009 global economic crisis, monthlyr growth (%)
20
April 2009 October 2003
G20 London Summit First month of growth
10 pledged to restore growth in arrivals since
maintain supple of credit SARS outbreak
recapitalise banking
system
0
October 2008 Now. 2009
-10 US 700 Billion US bailot First month of growth
after Lehman bankruptcy. in arrivals since start
Dow Jones drops 20% of global recession
March 2003
-20 WHO declares global
health emergency March 2009 3rd
deo to SARS Consecutive quarter
of GPD decline in G20
Asia Pacific during SARS
-30 (Q1 2009)
June 2003 World during global economic crisis
WHO lifts its final
travel warnings
-40 April 2003
WHO issues travel warnings
(HK and Guandong)
-50
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Note: Month 0 (zero) is considered to be March 2003 for SARS
(Asia Pacific) and January 2009 for global econnomic crisis
(World)
TOURISM CAN ACCELARATE JOB CREATION...
GROWTH IN GLOBAL EMPLOYMENT, 2010-2018 (%)
42
EMPLOYMENT IN ALL SECTORS 40
37
EMPLOYMENT IN ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICES
29
35 25
‘96
‘95
‘97
21 21
12
10
7
5
WORLD EUROPE ASIA AND THE PACIFIC AMERICAS
AFRICA MIDDLE EATS
Jobs in all sectors rose by 11% between 2010 and 2018 after
the global economic crisis, and jobs in accommodation and food
services grew by 35%.JOB LOSS
Predicted employment loss in the travel and tourism industry due to
the coronavirus (COVID-19)
pandemic worldwide in 2020, by country (in millions)
COVID-19: forecast job loss in travel and tourism sector worldwide 2020, by country
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
CHINA
INDIA
UNITED STATES
INDONESIA
THAILAND
SPAIN
MEXICO
GERMANY
JAPAN
BRAZIL
RUSSIA
ITALY
UK
TURKEY
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