Crisis averted in Ukraine? By Claire Mills - UK Parliament
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BRIEFING PAPER
Number 9205, 26 April 2021
Crisis averted in Ukraine? By Claire Mills
Since March 2021 Russia has been building up significant military forces in Crimea and
along the borders of Eastern Ukraine, prompting fears of further military action in the
region. On 22 April 2021 the Kremlin announced, however, that those additional troops,
which it said had been deployed on exercise, would be withdrawn by 1 May 2021.
Russia’s justification for the build-up has been questioned and it remains to be seen
whether Russia will fully implement its commitment to withdrawal.
1. What has been happening in Ukraine
since 2014?
Russian-backed separatists took control of Crimea and parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk
regions of eastern Ukraine (the Donbas) in 2014.
The 2014 and 2015 Minsk agreements remain the basis for the negotiation of a political
solution to the conflict. In July 2020 additional measures were agreed by the Minsk
Trilateral Contact Group, intended to strengthen, and ensure compliance with, the
ceasefire.
However, Russia has continued to integrate Crimea within Russian territory and to
destabilise Ukraine. The Donbas is mainly Russian speaking and many of the population
now have Russian passports after a concerted campaign by the Kremlin since 2019 to
issue passports to Ukrainian nationals living in the separatist controlled areas of Donetsk
and Luhansk. 1
1
Since 2019 a reported 650,000 Russian passports have been issued, resulting in what some analysts have
called a “passport protectorate”. See for example, “Russian passports: Putin’s secret weapon in the war
against Ukraine”, Atlantic Council, 13 April 2021
www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | papers@parliament.uk | @commonslibrary
2 Crisis averted in Ukraine?
Source: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, April 2019
Fighting between Russian-supported separatists and Ukrainian government forces has
continued in the Donbas, even though it has rarely been in the headlines. Russia describes
the Donbas as a “domestic conflict” for Ukraine, despite the widespread allegations that it
is behind the separatist unrest. The Kremlin has consistently denied its involvement,
suggesting that any Russian fighters in eastern Ukraine are “volunteers”. 2
Many people doubt whether Russian President Vladimir Putin genuinely wants to resolve
the conflict, however, preferring to set up a ‘frozen conflict’ where the breakaway regions
are maintained and supported by Russia, weakening the Kiev government and giving
Russia strong leverage over its actions, including any future attempts to formalise
Ukraine’s relationship with the EU and NATO. More recently President Putin said that
Russia will defend Russian citizens abroad if they are seen to be at risk.
Box 1: Further reading
• Eastern Ukraine – dashed hopes?, House of Commons Library, June 2020
• Cool conflicts in Russia’s neighbourhood, House of Commons Library, January 2019
• Ukraine – summary of developments in 2015 and 2016, House of Commons Library, January
2016
• Ukraine: towards a frozen conflict?, House of Commons Library, September 2014
2. On the precipice of a new crisis?
The Minsk Agreements, including the additional measures agreed in July 2020, remain
largely unimplemented by both sides. Tensions have been rising over the last few months
in the Donbas region between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian government forces.
Ceasefire violations have become increasingly commonplace and casualties are on the rise.
In 2021, 27 Ukrainian military personnel have been killed thus far.
Several commentators have suggested that the imposition of sanctions early in 2021 on
pro-Russian Ukrainian politician and businessman Viktor Medvedchuk, and the ban
2
“Ukraine conflict: Moscow could ‘defend’ Russia-backed rebels”, BBC News Online, 9 April 20213 Commons Library Briefing, 26 April 2021
imposed on three pro-Russian TV stations, have played a part in the deterioration of
relations. As Sarah Lain of RUSI has observed:
This deterioration was perhaps inevitable due to the lack of progress in the political
and security dimensions of the peace process. Simply put, there has been little
incentive for things to remain calm. 3
2.1 The build-up of Russian military forces
There have been growing fears that Russia is planning further military action in the region
following several weeks of a military build-up in Crimea and along the eastern Ukrainian
border. 4
Russia has amassed an estimated 100,000 troops on the ground, a greater number than
the force involved in the annexation of Crimea in 2014. 5 Airborne troops, reconnaissance
assets, infantry fighting vehicles, air defence systems, attack helicopters and a significant
number of fast jet aircraft, including Su-30, have recently been stationed in Crimea and
elsewhere in the region. Unconfirmed reports of Iskander short-range missiles being
deployed to the region have been circulating in the media. The Ukrainian government has
also asserted that Russia has been prepositioning fuel, ammunition and supplies in
separatist held areas in the Donbas. 6
Russia’s Black Sea fleet has also been reinforced with the addition of a number of small
vessels, including landing craft and artillery boats, from Russia’s Caspian Sea Flotilla. On
14 April 2021 the Russian Ministry of Defence reported that the Black Sea Fleet, together
with naval aviation and helicopters, would be taking part in live-fire exercises. The Russian
government has since confirmed that the exercises will continue until the end of October
2021, with several sections of the Black Sea being closed to foreign vessels during this
time.
The Ukrainian Government has accused Russia of contravening the right to freedom of
navigation under international law and described the move as an attempt to “usurp the
sovereign rights of Ukraine as a coastal state”. 7 By unilaterally closing access to the
eastern Black Sea and the Sea of Azov through the Kerch Strait, it further prevents the
Ukrainian navy from entering the Sea of Azov and accessing its ports.
3
“Rising tensions in Ukraine are not necessarily a prelude to renewed “hot” war, RUSI Commentary, 29
March 2021
4
The movement of such extensive military forces has been undertaken without prior notification, in
contravention of the principles set out in the OSCE’s Helsinki Final Act, to which Russia is a signatory.
5
Estimates suggest 90,000 Russian military personnel were deployed in support of local pro-Russian
separatist groups in the Donbas region in 2014/15 (“Russian forces in Ukraine, RUSI Briefing Paper, March
2015
6
“Russian troop build-up continues on Ukrainian border”, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 14 April 2021
7
“Ukraine accuses Russia of shutting off Black Sea access, harassing ships”, The Moscow Times, 16 April
20214 Crisis averted in Ukraine?
Source: Wikipedia, User:NormanEinstein - Own work
In anticipation of the exercises, four Russian Ropucha-class landing ships recently joined
the Black Sea Fleet from Russia’s Northern and Baltic Fleets, marking what has been
regarded as “the largest concentration of Russian amphibious forces in recent history”. 8
2.2 What has Russia said?
The Russian Government’s official line is that the movement of military personnel and
assets has been related to ongoing training exercises. At the beginning of April 2021
President Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, called the movement of troops an “internal
affair” and that they were “not threatening anyone”. 9 A week later the Russian Defence
Minister, Sergei Shoigu, accused NATO of provocative actions by amassing troops and
equipment on Russia’s Baltic borders and in the Black Sea region and suggested that the
movement of Russian forces was to test combat readiness in response to “threatening
behaviour” by the Alliance. 10
Separately the Russian Government also accused Ukraine of preparing an offensive of its
own to re-take the Donbas and stated that Russia would be forced to come to the
defence of Russian citizens in eastern Ukraine if the fighting escalated. 11
2.3 International reaction
The build-up comes at a low point in the West’s relations with Russia. The last few years
have been dominated by sanctions, tit-for-tat expulsions of diplomats and widespread
condemnation of Russia for its destabilising actions on the international stage, the
detention of opposition leader Alexei Navalny and subsequent crackdown on protesters.
8
“Update: Russia amasses amphibious forces in Black Sea”, Jane’s Navy International, 20 April 2021
9
“Russia’s internal troop movements should not concern other states, Kremlin states”, TASS Russian News
Agency, 1 April 2021
10
“Russia says troop build up near Ukraine is a response to NATO”, The Independent, 13 April 2021
11
“Donbas escalation would be beginning of the end for Ukraine”, The Moscow Times, 8 April 20215 Commons Library Briefing, 26 April 2021
Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 the West has been unanimous in its support for
the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and, as a result, a number of countries
have supplied military assistance to the country’s armed forces. This is examined in:
• Military assistance to Ukraine, House of Commons Library, April 2021
Reacting to recent events the members of the G7 issued a statement calling on Russia to
de-escalate tensions in line with its international obligations. It went on to state:
we reaffirm our unwavering support for the independence, sovereignty and territorial
integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognised borders. We support
Ukraine’s posture of restraint.
We underline our strong appreciation and continued support for France’s and
Germany’s efforts through the Normandy Process to secure the full implementation of
the Minsk agreements, which is the only way forward for a lasting political solution to
the conflict. We call on all sides to engage constructively in the Trilateral Contact
Group on the OSCE’s proposals to confirm and consolidate the ceasefire. 12
Those sentiments were echoed by the NATO Secretary General during a press conference
with the US Defense Secretary and US Secretary of State on 14 April 2021:
This is the biggest massing of Russian troops since the illegal annexation of Crimea in
2014.
And it is part of a broader pattern of Russian aggressive actions, which raises very
serious concerns.
Allies fully support Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
And we call on Russia to de-escalate immediately.
Stop its pattern of aggressive provocations.
And respect its international commitments.
The EU High Representative also stated, on behalf of EU Foreign Ministers:
With G7 partners, we have called on Russia to stop this dangerous escalation. In
addition, Russia has announced the closure of certain parts of the Black Sea until
October 2021, for military manoeuvres, which is another provocative move and
violates the freedom of navigation as guaranteed by UN Convention on the Law of
the Sea (UNCLOS) […]
We must commend Ukraine for its restrained response; we must continue to urge
Russia to de-escalate and defuse tensions, and we should all push back on Russia’s
attempts to portray itself as a mediator, rather than a party to the conflict.
We reiterated our strong support to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity and
our insistence on the need for the full implementation of the Minsk agreements. 13
On 20 April 2021 the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office set out its
position in response to a Parliamentary Question on this issue:
Russia's build-up of military forces near the Ukrainian border and within illegally
annexed Crimea indicates a troubling escalation in its ongoing campaign of
aggression towards Ukraine and its militarisation of the illegally annexed peninsula.
There has been regular Ministerial and senior official level engagement with the
Government of Ukraine and with our allies on this issue. The Foreign Secretary and
the Defence Secretary spoke to their Ukrainian counterparts on 2 April and the Prime
Minister had discussions with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine on 5 April to assure them
12
Statement of G7 Foreign Ministers, 12 April 2021
13
European Union External Action Service, HRVP Blog: Why and how the EU is supporting Ukraine, 20 April
20216 Crisis averted in Ukraine?
of the UK's unwavering support for the independence, sovereignty and territorial
integrity of Ukraine.
As a fellow Permanent Member of the UN Security Council, we engage directly with
Russia on matters of international peace and security, including Ukraine. We continue
to raise our concerns with the Russian government at every opportunity. On 15 April,
the National Security Adviser spoke to his Russian counterpart, and the FCDO
Permanent Under Secretary reiterated our concerns to the Russian Ambassador in
London on the same day. Our Ambassador in Moscow has spoken to the Russian
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, mostly recently on 16 April, to express our deep concern
about the build-up of Russian troops and the Ukrainian border, to reiterate our call for
Russia to de-escalate, and to underline our support for Ukrainian sovereignty and
territorial integrity.
We will continue working closely with partners to monitor the situation, and consider
all options. 14
In May 2021 the UK’s Carrier Strike Group is due to deploy on its first operational mission
to the Indo-Pacific. It has been widely reported in the media that two Royal Navy warships
deploying as part of that group, a Type 45 destroyer and a Type 23 frigate, will stop off in
the Black Sea en route, in a show of solidarity with Ukraine and regional NATO allies. 15
3. Crisis averted?
On 22 April 2021 the Russian Defence Minister announced that Russian units and airborne
divisions on exercise near the Ukrainian border would return back to their permanent
bases by 1 May 2021, having completed what he called “snap checks”. 16
Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, welcomed the move to defuse tensions, stating:
The reduction of troops on our border proportionally reduces tension. Ukraine is
always vigilant, yet welcomes any steps to decrease the military presence and
deescalate the situation in Donbas. Ukraine seeks peace. Grateful to international
partners for their support. 17
Russia taking a step back begs the question of Putin’s intentions over the last month or so.
While many had feared the Russian military build-up to be a precursor to a limited military
intervention in eastern Ukraine, other commentators suggested that Russia’s intention was
to test the political resolve of NATO and the new Biden administration in their support for
Ukraine’s sovereignty, while demonstrating Russia’s capacity to act in the region if it feels
its interests, or its citizens, are threatened. 18
Russia’s announced redeployment of forces would suggest the latter. However, it remains
to be seen whether the moves will be fully implemented by Russia or whether the Kremlin
will surreptitiously keep elements of its recently deployed military forces in place.
As Peter Dickinson at the Atlantic Council has observed:
Amid the justifiable sense of relief in Kyiv and other European capitals, it is critical to
underline that Vladimir Putin’s campaign of aggression against Ukraine remains far
14
PQ181414, Ukraine: Russia, 20 April 2021
15
“UK warships to sail for Black Sea in May as Ukraine-Russia tensions rise”, Reuters, 20 April 2021
16
“Russia to withdraw troops from Ukraine border, Crimea”, The Moscow Times, 22 April 2021
17
Twitter, 22 April 2021
18
See for example Tim Ripley and Thomas Bullock “Russian troop build-up sparks concern in Ukraine”, Jane’s
Intelligence Review, 9 April 2021; Elena Ostanina and Alex Kokcharov, “Russian military build-up on
Ukraine’s borders: war risk scenarios”, Jane’s Intelligence Review, 8 April 2021. The use of “peacekeeping
forces” to protect what the Kremlin considers Russian citizens in the post-Soviet space has also long been
recognised as a tool of Russian foreign policy (see for example “Will they stay or will they go?: Russian
peacekeepers in the post-Soviet space”, Radio Free Europe, 12 November 2020)7 Commons Library Briefing, 26 April 2021
from over. While the potential catastrophe of a full-scale Russian spring offensive has
been avoided, the threat of a dramatic escalation remains very real. Meanwhile,
Crimea and large swathes of eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region are still under Russian
occupation, and the death toll continues to climb in a conflict that has already claimed
more than 14,000 Ukrainian lives. 19
He goes on to state:
The message to Kyiv and Ukraine’s Western partners could hardly have been clearer:
Russia has not ruled out a military solution to the conflict and may yet resort to force
if the necessary concessions are not forthcoming. 20
Importantly, Russia’s redeployment of military forces does not include its naval assets in
the Black Sea which are conducting exercises until the end of October 2021. As outlined
above, the move by Russia to unliterally close off parts of the Black Sea to foreign vessels
has prompted widespread criticism and allegations that Russia is in contravention of the
UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Russia contends that the restrictions are in line
with international agreements and that it is common practice to limit areas where military
exercises are taking place. 21 At the time of writing, it remains to be seen how the West
will respond to this move.
19
“Putin withdraws troops but Russo-Ukrainian war continues”, Atlantic Council, 22 April 2021
20
Ibid
21
“Russia’s defence minister says US employing provocative actions in Black Sea”, Newsweek, 20 April 2021About the Library The House of Commons Library research service provides MPs and their staff with the impartial briefing and evidence base they need to do their work in scrutinising Government, proposing legislation, and supporting constituents. As well as providing MPs with a confidential service we publish open briefing papers, which are available on the Parliament website. Every effort is made to ensure that the information contained in these publicly available research briefings is correct at the time of publication. Readers should be aware however that briefings are not necessarily updated or otherwise amended to reflect subsequent changes. If you have any comments on our briefings please email papers@parliament.uk. Authors are available to discuss the content of this briefing only with Members and their staff. If you have any general questions about the work of the House of Commons you can email hcinfo@parliament.uk. Disclaimer This information is provided to Members of Parliament in support of their parliamentary duties. It is a general briefing only and should not be relied on as a substitute for specific advice. The House of Commons or the author(s) shall not be liable for any errors or omissions, or for any loss or damage of any kind arising from its use, and may remove, vary or amend any information at any time without prior notice. The House of Commons accepts no responsibility for any references or links to, or the content of, information maintained by third parties. This information is provided subject to the conditions of the Open Parliament Licence.
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