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Cus A Delicacy That Can Wait - Edelweiss Research
November 2021
Initiating Coverage

Zomato

f
                                                                   cus
                                              A Delicacy That Can Wait

Pranav Kshatriya                   Nihal Mahesh Jham
+91 22 4040 7495                   +91 22 6623 3352
Pranav.Kshatriya@edelweissfin.com   Nihal.Jham@edelweissfin.com

Sandip Agarwal                     Pulkit Chawla
+91 22 6623 3474                   Pulkit.Chawla@edelweissfin.com
Sandip.Agarwal@edelweissfin.com                                      Edelweiss Securities Limited
Cus A Delicacy That Can Wait - Edelweiss Research
India Equity Research                  Internet            November 29, 2021

  ZOMATO
INITIATING COVERAGE

KEY DATA
Rating                                                      HOLD
                                                                           A delicacy that can wait
Sector relative                                            Neutral
Price (INR)                                                    150
12 month price target (INR)                                    151         Zomato is the leader in India’s nascent online food delivery business
Market cap (INR bn/USD bn)
Free float/Foreign ownership (%)
                                                        1,117/16.2
                                                         96.4/67.8
                                                                           with a massive growth playfield. The stock’s current price though
                                                                           factors in runaway growth, making it no less than a delicacy. Beating
                                                                           such lofty expectations calls for a structural uptick in its key drivers.
INVESTMENT METRICS
 335
                                                                           Adjacencies – side orders – can however add palpable flavour (value)
 115                                                                       over medium-to-long term considering Zomato’s deep engagement
 -105
                                                                           and compelling market power. The company boasts a superior growth
 -325
 -545                                                                      profile and quality vis-a-vis global peers, but at 24.3x FY22E EV/sales,
          Sales Growth EPS Growth     RoE                   PE
               (%)         (%)         (%)                  (x)            the stock’s indeed expensive. On balance, we are initiating Zomato at
                Internet          ZOMATO IN EQUITY
                                                                           ‘HOLD’ with a TP of INR151. Key risks: regulations around gig workers,
                                                                           quality of disclosures and execution vis-a-vis archrival Swiggy.
FINANCIALS                                              (INR mn)           Food delivery business can scale up
Year to March            FY21A        FY22E      FY23E        FY24E
                                                                           Dishing out customer convenience, online food delivery apps have gained scale
Revenue                  19,938     43,939      63,733       89,860
EBITDA                   (4,672)   (20,255)    (17,351)     (12,931)
                                                                           across the globe. After food delivery apps’ 140% CAGR over 2016–19 and a
Adjusted profit          (8,128)   (13,442)     (9,957)      (6,536)       pandemic-led blip in 2020, we expect them to deliver a 22% CAGR over 2019–30.
Diluted EPS (INR)          (1.5)       (1.7)      (1.3)            (0.8)   This would catapult the industry size to USD35bn, or 16.2% of total by 2030, from
EPS growth (%)            (72.1)       15.4      (27.1)           (35.4)   4.2% currently, even topping current penetration in mature markets such as the US
RoAE (%)                  (18.5)      (10.8)      (6.0)            (3.9)
                                                                           (6%), South Asia (10.2%) and China (15.6%). As a pointer, e-commerce with a five-
P/E (x)                      nm         nm         nm               nm
EV/EBITDA (x)            (260.1)      (55.6)     (64.8)           (86.5)
                                                                           year head start over online food delivery, is logging similar growth rates. Such growth
Dividend yield (%)            0           0             0             0    is indeed achievable, but sustaining it would require acceleration of GDP growth,
                                                                           urbanisation trends, female workforce participation, etc.

PRICE PERFORMANCE                                                          Adjacencies can create value—not grocery, maybe cloud kitchen
 175                                                   62,000
                                                                           We believe shelving the grocery business is a good strategic move by Zomato as
 155                                                   60,000              supply chains of food delivery platforms complement only those for instant
 135                                                   58,000              grocery—a small, less profitable segment of the overall grocery market. We do see
 115                                                   56,000
  95                                                   54,000
                                                                           opportunities in adjacencies though: cloud kitchen, table booking, advertisements
  75                                                   52,000              restaurant supplies, etc. While Zomato is committed to staying away from cloud
    Jul-21      Aug-21    Sep-21      Oct-21     Nov-21                    kitchens, it can exploit consumer insights to create better products and capture a
                ZOMATO IN EQUITY               Sensex
                                                                           higher share of the value chain, a la private labels in e-commerce.

                                                                           Outlook and valuation: Strong growth priced in; initiate with ‘HOLD’
                           Explore:                                        We estimate Zomato would clock a lip-smacking 50.6% revenue CAGR over FY21–25,
                                                                           riding a 46.1% CAGR in delivery volumes. As it focuses on gaining scale and market
                                                                           share, we estimate contribution profit/ order would drop to INR7.6 in FY22 (INR20.5
                                                                           in FY21) and increase to INR16.6 by FY25. Zomato would turn in positive cash EBITDA
                                                                           by FY24E, but would report positive EBITDA in FY26 due to high ESOP costs.
           Financial model              Podcast
                                                                           The stock is trading at 16.7x FY23E EV/sales, a significant premium to global peers
                                                                           due to its superior growth rates and long growth runway. We arrive at a TP of
                                                                           INR151, wherein we value core food delivery at INR140 using DCF and optionality for
          Corporate access              Video                              adjacencies at INR12. We are initiating coverage with a ‘HOLD’ recommendation and
                                                                           ‘Sector Neutral’ rating along with a TP of INR151. Regulatory risks, execution vis-à-
                                                                           vis versus Swiggy, and quality of disclosures are the key risks to our call.

Pranav Kshatriya                                Nihal Mahesh Jham                        Sandip Agarwal                    Pulkit Chawla
+91 (22) 4040 7495                              +91 (22) 6623 3352                       +91 (22) 6623 3474
Pranav.Kshatriya@edelweissfin.com               Nihal.Jham@edelweissfin.com              Sandip.Agarwal@edelweissfin.com   Pulkit.Chawla@edelweissfin.com

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset                              Edelweiss Securities Limited
Cus A Delicacy That Can Wait - Edelweiss Research
ZOMATO

                                                          Executive Summary
                                                          Zomato’s IPO and its performance since demonstrate public market
                                                          investors are willing to back a loss-making enterprise if the quality of
                                                          engagement is high, even if the road to profitability is long. Since the
                                                          profits are distant, we study long-term growth expectations for the
                                                          food delivery industry, benchmark it to other countries, and compare
                                                          it with e-commerce.
                                                          We infer the food delivery industry might well bulge to USD35bn by
                                                          2030, from USD4.2bn in 2019. Even stronger growth is possible,
                                                          subject to acceleration in GDP growth, urbanisation trends, female
                                                          workforce participation, etc.
    “Execution is extremely under-rated. All
    the big things (strategy) are a sum total             Network effect, the overarching driver in online businesses, is actually
          of small things (execution)”
                                                          modest in the food delivery business. Accordingly, we expect Zomato
                           Deepinder Goyal.               to achieve a large scale with a dominant share of 50%-plus, without
                        Founder & CEO, Zomato             any major expansion in take-rates. Value creation, we anticipate,
                                                          would stem from expansion to adjacencies a la typical high-
                                                          engagement platforms.
                                                          Cloud kitchen could be a key adjacency contender, but we are less
                                                          optimistic on grocery as the food delivery network can address only
                                                          a small portion of general grocery demand. There are other
                                                          adjacencies though that can become large in the future, such as
                                                          advertising, restaurant supplies, restaurant table bookings and bill
                                                          payments.
                                                          At FY22E EV/sales of 24.3x and EV/GMV of 11.2x, Zomato is the most
                                                          expensive listed food delivery business globally. Indeed it offers heady
                                                          growth potential vis-à-vis globally listed peers. The investor in
                                                          gourmet worries about the aftertaste though. On balance, we are
                                                          initiating coverage on Zomato at ‘HOLD’ with a target price of INR151,
                                                          derived from INR140 for the food delivery business (via DCF) plus
                                                          INR12 for adjacencies (FY30E EV/sales).
                                                          Superior growth potential aside, we sniff potential regulations
                                                          considering the market power and control exercised by online
                                                          delivery apps at large on gig workers. The shape and form of such
                                                          regulations is not yet clear, but look quite probable over medium-
                                                          to-long term.
                                                          To be sure, markets love Zomato’s delivery story, but in the first few
                                                          months since listing, its quality of disclosures has been sub-par. If
                                                          this continues, valuations could take a knock. And also with food
                                                          delivery apps demonstrating monopolistic nature, Zomato must
                                                          decisively outdo Swiggy, a well-funded large player chasing it fast
                                                          in its playfield.

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ZOMATO

                                                              Main course: What will it take to deliver?
                                                              India is witnessing rapid growth in online food delivery off a low base. Industry
                                                              reports build in a 35% CAGR over 2020–25 and a 22% CAGR over 2025–30. At
                                                              this rate, online food delivery will grow to a USD35bn industry by 2030,
                                                              from USD4.2bn in 2019.

                                                              Meanwhile, the contribution of food delivery to restaurant business is expected to
                                                              increase from 6.5% in 2019 to 16.2% by 2030, which is much higher than current
                                                              penetration in more mature markets such as US (6%), South Asia (10.2%), and China
                                                              (15.6%). E-commerce is witnessing similar deceleration trends as the base increased.

                                                              Considering these factors, we believe current growth forecasts capture potential
                                                              upside in the prevailing context, and bettering them would require acceleration in
                                                              GDP growth, urbanisation trends, female workforce participation, etc.

                                                              Side orders: Adjacencies drive value creation in platform business
                                                              High-engagement platforms can create significant value outside their core expertise
                                                              as they are extremely important for consumers for a certain function, which gives
                                                              them an opportunity to expand into adjacent areas and address a larger market.

                                                              We believe cloud kitchen could be a large opportunity for food delivery platforms
                                                              considering their consumer insights. We view this as an opportunity similar to what
                                                              private labels are to e-commerce. Globally, most food delivery apps have expanded
                                                              into grocery delivery. Zomato tried too, but it has scaled back. Even so, it may
                                                              attempt such a foray again with Grofers.

                                                              Given point-to-point last-mile supply chain of food delivery aggregators, their addressable
                                                              market is limited to instant grocery delivery, a small sub-segment of the market with less
                                                              compelling unit economics. Meanwhile, Zomato has expanded into advertising, restaurant
                                                              supplies, restaurant table bookings and bill payments, among others, which are currently
                                                              small but can potentially scale up into larger businesses as the ecosystem evolves.

                                                              Repeat orders: Focus on order growth; take-rate to stay steady
                                                              Zomato’s premium valuation is premised on expectations of its long growth runway,
                                                              and hence there will be a disproportionate focus on volume growth. Despite its
                                                              leadership in a large market, i.e. India, Zomato is making only 239mn deliveries
                                                              annually (FY21) versus Meituan’s 10bn, Doordash’s 816mn and JustEat Takeaway’s
                                                              588mn. We are building in 1.4bn orders by FY25 and 3.8bn orders by FY30.

                                                              Considering competition from a well-funded Swiggy, investors might be willing to
                                                              overlook profitability in the short run, but lack of order growth would raise questions
                                                              on sustainability of long-term growth and/or execution capability. Both can
                                                              influence valuations greatly. We expect take-rates to remain stable as restaurants’
                                                              increasing disintermediation drive will keep platform power in check.

                                                              Testing the taste: AOV to dip before rising, discounts to taper down
                                                              During FY21, AOV shot up to INR397, from INR278 in FY20, as the pandemic
                                                              catalysed the ordering pattern to family orders from single orders. Moreover,
                                                              premium dine-in only restaurants adopted online food delivery platforms to keep
                                                              the business going while consumers preferred them for their focus on hygiene.

                                                              Small part of it will reverse in FY22, which would cause a dip in AOV to INR381. FY22
                                                              onwards though we expect sub-inflationary 1–3% growth in AOV as some inflation
                                                              and premiumisation will offset higher growth from smaller cities.

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ZOMATO

                                                         Similarly, discounts too vanished in FY21 as platforms focused on containing costs.
                                                         Discount per order dipped to INR8.3 in FY21, from INR21.7 in FY20. And as focus on
                                                         volume growth comes back, we expect discounts to increase to INR15 in FY22 and
                                                         then taper down to INR7 by FY30.
                                                         In fact, we expect contribution profit per order to dip to INR7.6 in FY22, from INR20.5
                                                         in FY21 and a loss of INR30.5 in FY20. We expect contribution profit per order to inch
                                                         back to INR22.7 by FY30.

                                                         Not a stock blend: Network effect modest for food delivery platforms
                                                         As opposed to typical online platforms wherein network effect predominates, in
                                                         food delivery platform the network effect is curtailed due to local clustering,
                                                         commoditised offering and vulnerability to multi-homing. Network effect for food
                                                         delivery platforms is somewhat similar to ride hailing, and is lower than global
                                                         platforms such as messaging and social media.
                                                         Typically a large player dominates the food delivery market with a market share in
                                                         excess of 50%, even in large markets (US, China). Nevertheless, the large player has
                                                         limited pricing power and hence low profitability. Restaurants are trying to
                                                         disintermediate food delivery platforms by going direct, but considering challenges
                                                         of on-boarding customers on individual restaurant platforms, they may succeed only
                                                         in gourmet food or high-order value cases.

                                                         Outlook and valuation: Too full to digest; initiate with ‘HOLD’
                                                         Zomato’s global peers trade at 5–12x one-year forward price to sales. The multiple
                                                         is contingent on growth potential of a market and market share of the player. For
                                                         Zomato, we use a two-stage DCF model, which yields a value of INR1.1tn
                                                         (USD15.1bn). Our assumptions: 38% revenue CAGR over FY21–30, 12% FCF growth
                                                         for FY31–38, and 4% terminal growth.
                                                         While we do expect higher growth levels to sustain given the market’s relatively
                                                         nascent stage, at 26.5x FY22E P/S, Zomato’s pricing in full growth. On top of it, the
                                                         valuation shows high sensitivity to AOV; for instance, a mere INR10 change in AOV
                                                         swings the valuation by 5%. We believe Zomato’s valuation depends on its ability to
                                                         sustain and fortify its leadership in the Indian food delivery market.
                                                         For perspective, archrival Swiggy’s valuation is lower than Zomato’s, but as per latest
                                                         disclosures, the former is now clocking a similar number of orders. Consequently,
                                                         Zomato would need to execute better than Swiggy to sustain leadership. Moreover,
                                                         Zomato’s quality of disclosures leaves a lot desirable, and that may have implications
                                                         for its valuation in the long term.

                                                         Hurdles to steady delivery: Tech obsolescence, inefficient allocation
                                                         Gig economy regulation and unbridled market power: Rapid emergence of a gig
                                                         economy has thrown up challenges for governments across the globe. Considering
                                                         the disproportionate market power of platforms, several countries are taking steps
                                                         to protect the interest of stakeholders of these companies, gig workers included.
                                                         Any adverse regulations would not only influence profitability and market power,
                                                         but might fundamentally alter – or even distort – the business model.
                                                         Other key risks to watch out for: i) increase in competition, leading to weaker unit
                                                         economics and higher costs; ii) deeper-than-anticipated fall in AOV; iii) delivery and
                                                         other cost escalations, and the platform’s inability to pass-through such costs; and
                                                         iv) despite low odds of success in direct delivery, an unlikely success can potentially
                                                         disrupt food delivery platforms’ business models, including Zomato’s.

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ZOMATO

       The Story in Charts
                                  A global trend: Food delivery as a proportion of restaurant food is on the rise in various geographies
          20.0

          16.0                                                                16.2                                                                                                                      16.5
                                                                                                                                                             15.6

          12.0                                                      11.8
                                                                                                                                                10.2                                         10.2
                8.0                                   8.7
                                         6.5                                                                        6.0
                4.0                                                                                                                                                            3.7
                                                                                                   2.2
                   -
                                  2019         2020         2025       2030               2019            2020                           2019      2020                 2019          2020      2025
                                                            India                                              US                                  China                             SE Asia
       Source: Redseer, company filings, Edelweiss Research

                                 ..so has the food delivery GMV in India                                                                E-commerce has already matured over years
                         40                                                              160                                     30                                                                 90

                                                                                         120                                     24                                                                 72
                         30

                                                                                         80                                      18                                                                 54
              (USD bn)

                                                                                                                      (USD bn)
                                                                                                   (%)

                                                                                                                                                                                                          (%)
                         20
                                                                                         40                                      12                                                                 36

                         10
                                                                                         0                                        6                                                                 18

                             0                                                           -40                                      0                                                                 0
                                  2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025E2030E                                                                    FY15     FY16        FY17   FY18     FY19      FY20P

                                  Foodtech GMV (USD bn)                         YoY growth (%)                                           Ecommerce in India                 YoY Growth rate (%)

                                 Zomato MAUs and MTUs to drive growth…                                                                  …but AOV to decline in FY22 before recovering
               100                                                                             45                                 450

                                                                                                                                                               397                       395        400
                    80                                                                         36                                                                              389
                                                                                                                                  400                                 381

                    60                                                                         27
       (mn)

                                                                                                                                  350
                                                                                                         (%)

                                                                                                                          (INR)

                    40                                                                         18
                                                                                                                                  300      282         278
                    20                                                                         9

                                                                                                                                  250
                         0                                                                     -
                                 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E
                                                                                                                                  200
                                 MAU           MTU             Proportion of transacting users                                            FY19     FY20        FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E

      Source: Company, Industry Reports, Edelweiss Research

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ZOMATO

    Financial Statements
    Income Statement (INR mn)                                                      Balance Sheet (INR mn)
    Year to March                 FY21A        FY22E        FY23E        FY24E     Year to March                  FY21A           FY22E        FY23E        FY24E
    Total operating income        19,938      43,939       63,733       89,860     Share capital                        0         7,692        7,817        7,941
    Employee costs                 7,408      18,032       21,387       25,310     Reserves                       80,987       1,59,329     1,59,471     1,63,842
    SG&A expenses                      0           0            0           07     Shareholders funds             80,987       1,67,021     1,67,288     1,71,783
    Other expenses                15,283      42,695       53,605       67,080     Minority interest                 (57)           (93)       (129)        (165)
    EBITDA                       (4,672)     (20,255)     (17,351)    (12,931)     Borrowings                         14             14           14           14
    Depreciation                   1,377          792          848         833     Trade payables                  2,972          7,358        9,286       11,764
    Less: Interest expense           101            1           1            1     Other liabs & prov              2,192          2,192        2,192        2,192
    Add: Other income              1,246        3,029       4,840        4,979     Total liabilities              87,035       1,77,419     1,79,578     1,86,515
    Profit before tax            (4,904)     (18,019)     (13,360)      (8,786)    Net block                         234            234          234          234
    Prov for tax                      13      (4,541)      (3,367)      (2,214)    Intangible assets              15,158         14,791       14,412       14,016
    Less: Other adj              (3,248)            0            0            0    Capital WIP                         0              0            0            0
    Reported profit              (8,128)     (13,442)      (9,957)      (6,536)    Total fixed assets             15,392         15,025       14,645       14,249
    Less: Excp.item (net)               0            0            0            0   Non current inv                     0              0            0            0
    Adjusted profit              (8,128)     (13,442)      (9,957)      (6,536)    Cash/cash equivalent            9,037         98,298       99,580     1,05,257
    Diluted shares o/s             5,366        7,692        7,817        7,942    Sundry debtors                  1,299          2,788        4,043        5,701
    Adjusted diluted EPS            (1.5)        (1.7)        (1.3)        (0.8)   Loans & advances                    0              0            0            0
    DPS (INR)                          0            0            0            0    Other assets                   31,224         31,224       31,224       31,224
    Tax rate (%)                     0.3         25.2         25.2         25.2    Total assets                   87,035       1,77,419     1,79,578     1,86,515

    Important Ratios (%)                                                           Free Cash Flow (INR mn)
    Year to March                  FY21A       FY22E        FY23E        FY24E     Year to March                  FY21A           FY22E        FY23E        FY24E
    Revenue growth (%)             (23.5)       120.4         45.0         41.0    Reported profit               (8,128)       (13,442)       (9,957)      (6,536)
    Gross Margin (%)                 90.4        92.1         90.4         88.4    Add: Depreciation               1,377            792           848          833
    Other cost (% of Rev)            76.7        97.2         84.1         74.6    Interest (net of tax)             101               1            1           1
    EBITDA margin (%)              (23.4)       (46.1)      (27.2)       (14.4)    Others                       (29,149)           7,539        3,201       5,318
    Net profit margin (%)          (40.8)       (30.6)      (15.6)        (7.3)    Less: Changes in WC            25,434         (2,897)        (672)       (820)
    Revenue growth (% YoY)         (23.5)       120.4         45.0         41.0    Operating cash flow          (10,179)         (3,466)      (3,213)       1,011
    EBITDA growth (% YoY)          (79.7)       333.6       (14.3)       (25.5)    Less: Capex                      (48)           (424)        (469)        (437)
    Adj. profit growth (%)         (65.7)        65.4       (25.9)       (34.4)    Free cash flow               (10,227)         (3,891)      (3,682)          574

    Assumptions (%)                                                                Key Ratios
    Year to March                  FY21A       FY22E        FY23E        FY24E     Year to March                  FY21A           FY22E        FY23E        FY24E
    GDP (YoY %)                     (8.0)          9.0         7.0          7.0    RoE (%)                         (18.5)         (10.8)        (6.0)        (3.9)
    Repo rate (%)                     4.0          4.0         4.3          5.3    RoCE (%)                        (10.9)         (14.5)        (8.0)        (5.2)
    USD/INR (average)               75.0         73.0         72.0        71.0     Inventory days                     18             16             9            5
    Capex                           48.0        424.4        468.5       437.0     Receivable days                    23             17           20           20
    Tax rate (%)                    (0.3)        25.2         25.2        25.2     Payable days                      538            544          499          369
    Payable days                    41.7         41.7         41.7        41.7     Working cap (% sales)           134.7            54.5         36.5         25.0
    Recievable days                  23.2        23.2         23.2         23.2    Gross debt/equity (x)                0              0            0            0
    Dividend per share                  0           0            0            0    Net debt/equity (x)              (0.1)          (0.6)        (0.6)        (0.6)
    Employee exp (% of rev)          37.2        41.0         33.6         28.2    Interest coverage (x)           (60.0)     (19,329.8)   (16,714.2)   (12,641.3)

    Valuation Metrics                                                              Valuation Drivers
    Year to March                  FY21A       FY22E        FY23E        FY24E     Year to March                 FY21A           FY22E        FY23E         FY24E
    Diluted P/E (x)                   nm         nm           nm           nm      EPS growth (%)                (72.1)            15.4       (27.1)        (35.4)
    Price/BV (x)                     10.3         7.2          7.3          7.2    RoE (%)                       (18.5)          (10.8)        (6.0)         (3.9)
    EV/EBITDA (x)                 (260.1)      (55.6)       (64.8)       (86.5)    EBITDA growth (%)             (79.7)          333.6        (14.3)        (25.5)
    Dividend yield (%)                  0           0            0            0    Payout ratio (%)                 nm              nm          nm            nm
    Source: Company and Edelweiss estimates

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ZOMATO

                                                              Investment Rationale
                                                              Street exuberant about food delivery growth
                                                               India is clocking rapid growth in online food delivery—off a low base. Industry
                                                                forecasts build in CAGRs of 35% over 2020–25 and 18% over 2025–30. These
                                                                growth rates are similar to the ones for e-commerce.

                                                               The proportion of food delivery market to restaurant is expected to increase from
                                                                6.5% in 2019 to 16.2% by 2030, outdoing current penetration in more mature
                                                                markets such as the US (6%), South Asia (10.2%) and China (15.6%).

                                                               At this rate of growth, India’s online food delivery will become a USD30bn
                                                                industry by 2030, from USD4.2bn in 2019. These growth expectations are indeed
                                                                steep, but can be met with acceleration in GDP growth, urbanisation, etc.

                                                              Convenience: A key factor aiding online food delivery market growth
     India’s online food delivery industry has                Food delivery platforms have made online food ordering experience incredibly
     logged staggering 143% CAGR over 2015–                   convenient. These platforms have also made on-demand delivery fleet available to
     19 to reach to USD4.2bn                                  restaurants, thereby significantly widening their catchment area, as well as making
                                                              more restaurants available to consumers.

                                                              This cocktail of convenience and wider catchment has fired up stupendous growth
                                                              in online food delivery services across the world, and India is no exception. India’s
                                                              online food delivery industry has logged a staggering 143% CAGR over 2015–19,
                                                              expanding to USD4.2bn. However, with the pandemic nibbling away at the business,
                                                              the industry had to swallow a 31% decline in 2020 to USD2.9bn.

     According to industry estimates, India food              As more users are opting for online food delivery and ordering frequency increases,
     delivery GMV is expected to grow at a 35%                growth will remain high. India food delivery GMV is expected to expand at a 35%
     CAGR over 2020–25 to USD13bn by 2025,                    CAGR over 2020–25 to USD13bn by 2025, from USD2.9bn in 2020. Furthermore, by
     from USD2.9bn in 2020 and USD30bn by                     2030, the online food delivery industry is expected to reach USD30bn, implying an
     2030, implying an 18% CAGR over 2025–30.                 18% CAGR over 2025–30.

                                                              While growth rates look moderate against a staggering 143% CAGR over 2015–19,
                                                              we have seen growth taper as the base expands. We believe growth rate
                                                              expectations are fair and a further increase thereof is contingent on rising GDP per
                                                              capita, rapid urbanisation, higher female workforce participation, etc.

                                                              We note that female labour workforce participation has a high correlation with
                                                              expenditure on food away from home. In India, the female labour workforce
                                                              participation languishes at just over 20% compared with 57% in the US and 61% in
                                                              China. A disproportionate increase in female workforce participation can drive
                                                              higher growth for food aggregators.

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                                                                               India online food delivery GMV and growth rates

                                                                          40                                                                            160

                                                                          32                                                                            120

                                                                          24                                                                            80

                                                               (USD bn)

                                                                                                                                                              (%)
                                                                          16                                                                            40

                                                                          8                                                                             0

                                                                          0                                                                             -40
                                                                                2016     2017    2018       2019       2020      2025E      2030E

                                                                                          Foodtech GMV (USD bn)               YoY growth (%)

                                                             Source: Redseer, Industry Reports, Edelweiss Research

                                                             India food delivery penetration to accelerate
     Proportion of food delivery in India is                 With the pandemic clamping down movements of entire populations, especially in
     expected to increase to 11.8% by 2025 and               public places such as restaurants, adoption of food delivery has accelerated. In India,
     16.2% in 2030.                                          contribution of food delivery to restaurants rose to 8.7% in 2020 from 6.5% in 2019.
                                                             In the US, China and South East Asia, it increased from 2.2% to 6%, 10.2% to 15.6%
                                                             and 3.7% to 10.2%, respectively.

                                                             According to Industry forecasts, the proportion of food delivery in India would
                                                             increase to 11.8% by 2025 and 16.2% in 2030. In China, a mature market that has
                                                             among the highest proportions of food delivery, the ratio increased to 15.6% in
                                                             2020.

                                                             We note that the proportion of food delivery also depends on GDP per capita. On
                                                             this count, India ranks much lower than peers and, to that extent, a 16.2%
                                                             proportion of food delivery by 2030 factors in many industry tailwinds.

               Food delivery as a proportion of restaurant food in various geographies

    Source: Redseer, company filings, Edelweiss Research

                                                             E-commerce growth rates tapered down too
                                                             While e-commerce in India clocked strong growth until FY16, its growth tapered
                                                             down as the base expanded (refer to exhibit 8): from a 70% CAGR over FY14–16 to
                                                             a 27% CAGR over FY16–20. Furthermore, e-commerce growth will fall under 20% for
                                                             FY20–25 as the industry matures.

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                                                              We envisage similar trends in food delivery. In the initial stages, growth is driven by
                                                              higher adoption by consumers that have the spending power/ability to pay for
                                                              convenience, but as the pie starts expanding, newer consumers have relatively little
                                                              spending power; growth rates hence tend to taper down.

                                                                                 E-commerce growth in India

                                                                            30                                                                            85

                                                                            24                                                                            68

                                                                            18                                                                            51

                                                                 (USD bn)

                                                                                                                                                               (%)
                                                                            12                                                                            34

                                                                            6                                                                             17

                                                                            0                                                                             0
                                                                                   FY15      FY16       FY17        FY18       FY19         FY20P

                                                                                           Ecommerce in India          YoY Growth rate (%)
                                                              Source: Industry reports, Edelweiss Research

                                                              Adjacencies can drive value creation
                                                               While food delivery in itself will start generating cash as it scales up, we believe
                                                                further value creation will require creating product market fit in adjacent areas.

                                                               Globally, most food delivery apps are expanding into grocery delivery. However,
                                                                due to point-to-point last-mile supply chain of food delivery aggregators, their
                                                                addressable market is limited to instant grocery delivery, a small sub-segment of
                                                                the market with less compelling unit economics.

                                                               Zomato has also expanded into advertising, restaurant supplies, restaurant table
                                                                bookings and bill payments, etc, which complement its business model.

                                                               Globally, similar companies have ventured into cloud kitchen, on-demand courier
                                                                service, payments, etc.

                                                              Instant grocery: Clear synergies with food delivery, but…
                                                              While Zomato’s core focus is food delivery, it is likely to leverage its customer
                                                              engagement and market power to foray into adjacent areas such as cloud kitchen,
                                                              grocery delivery, fitness, nutrition, etc. Globally, many food delivery aggregators
                                                              have expanded into grocery, especially into instant grocery, leveraging their existing
                                                              point-to-point supply chains and the delivery fleet’s idle time during non-peak hours.

                                                              Zomato launched its grocery vertical during the pandemic, but scaled it back and
                                                              eventually shut down due to unfavourable unit economics. The company has
                                                              invested USD100mn for a 9.3% stake in Grofers, an online grocer, and may look at
                                                              leveraging its on-demand delivery fleet for instant delivery of groceries.

     Grocery and food delivery supply chains are
                                                              We note that most grocers create their own supply chain, largely on the hub-and-
     fundamentally different: food delivery has               spoke model, to ensure quality control and optimized shipping. Most of the
     point-to-point supply chain while grocery                consumers also prefer planned ordering of most of the grocery items once in a
     delivery works on a hub-and-spoke model.                 week/fortnight. At times though, consumers require instant grocery delivery of
                                                              certain items that can be fulfilled by the local grocer using the food delivery

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                                                             aggregator fleet. Global food delivery firms such as Doordash, Deliveroo, Uber Eats
                                                             and Just Eat Takeaway have also ventured into instant grocery delivery, lured by the
                                                             large market size and high growth opportunity. For Deliveroo, grocery delivery now
                                                             makes up 10% of the delivery and has become its fastest growing segment.

                                                             Most of these platforms have entered the on-demand grocery service segment
                                                             offering to deliver within a stipulated period of time. Consequently, gross margins
                                                             for grocery delivery would be higher in this case as discounts and cheap products is
                                                             not the USP.

                                                             Despite higher gross margins for this segment (relative to value-grocery), grocery
                                                             delivery margins continue to be lower than food delivery margins. A case in point is
                                                             Deliveroo’s gross profit per order for grocery delivery was GBP2.1 compared with
                                                             GBP2.4 for food delivery. We suspect even a lower EBITDA margin as investments
                                                             required for onboarding suppliers and into the overall supply chain could be higher.

                                                                         Global food delivery platforms have expanded to grocery delivery

                                                             Source: Company, Edelweiss Research

                                                             Zomato may collaborate with Grofers for instant grocery delivery
                                                             While Zomato followed international peers for its foray into on-demand grocery
                                                             delivery, it rapidly scaled back, and eventually shut it down, possibly due to poor
                                                             unit economics and execution challenges. We do see online grocery scaling up
                                                             significantly in coming years, but we expect this space to be dominated by the
                                                             specialists (Big Basket, JioMart, DMart, etc), and food delivery players will have
                                                             limited play due to incompatibility of the two supply chains. To that extent, we
                                                             believe Zomato’s decision to get out of grocery delivery is prescient.

     Grofers can utilize Zomato’s delivery fleet for
                                                             That said, Zomato invested USD100mn for a 9.3% stake in Grofers, an online grocer.
     instant delivery of groceries, thereby                  While there are no details on the nature of collaboration or the synergies it can yield,
     reducing costs for both platforms                       Zomato may consider availing its on-demand delivery fleet to Grofers for instant
                                                             delivery of groceries. This will optimise its delivery fleet’s utilisation by increasing
                                                             turnover during non-peak hours.

                                                             On aggregate, this can also reduce the delivery cost for Zomato as the delivery
                                                             personnel will be able to do more deliveries in a day and drive up utilisation. While
                                                             there is no official announcement, we believe financial investments by Zomato will
                                                             help build confidence among management teams of the two companies to explore
                                                             such a tie-up.

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                                                                            Comparison of food and grocery delivery margin
                                                                                                                       Food          Grocery
                                                                                                                                              Details
                                                                                                                    Delivery         Delivery
                                                                                                                                              Commission
                                                                                                                                              is higher for
                                                                                                                                              food delivery
                                                               Commission/ Margin (including additional                                       given
                                                                                                                       20%               18%
                                                               income)                                                                        restaurants
                                                                                                                                              high
                                                                                                                                              dependence
                                                                                                                                              on platforms
                                                                                                                                              Storing in
                                                                                                                                              warehouses
                                                                                                                                              and other
                                                               Delivery/ Supply Chain Costs                            10%               15% costs results
                                                                                                                                              in higher
                                                                                                                                              supply chain
                                                                                                                                              costs
                                                                                                                                              No
                                                               Discounts/ Cashbacks                                      2%               2%
                                                                                                                                              difference
                                                                                                                                              No
                                                               Other Variable Costs                                      3%               3%
                                                                                                                                              difference
                                                               Contribution Margin                                       5%               -2%
                                                              Source: Edelweiss Research

                                                              Cloud kitchen foray can create value for food delivery platforms
                                                              Food delivery apps have dramatically increased the volume of restaurant food
                                                              ordering. Increased scale, absence of high street retail cost and other overheads of
                                                              restaurants have made the cloud kitchen business viable and scalable.

     Cloud kitchen is a backward integration
                                                              However, cloud kitchens depend greatly on food delivery platforms for their
     strategy for food delivery platforms to                  business. This makes cloud kitchens a natural extension for food delivery platforms
     increase their share of value addition, and              as: i) food delivery platforms can leverage ordering data to understand consumers’
     hence profit pool                                        preferences about menu items, pricing, etc by area; ii) they can promote cloud
                                                              kitchens on their (food delivery) platforms to drive traffic; and iii) it helps food
                                                              delivery platforms capture value of the order not only from ordering and delivery,
                                                              but also from food preparation.

                                                              Globally, Doordash, Deliveroo, JET and Uber Eats have already ventured into this
                                                              business. And the pandemic led to a sharp increase in business for these cloud
                                                              kitchens. In the US, prior to the pandemic, cloud kitchens accounted for 10–15% of
                                                              the USD66bn restaurant market, which has now jumped to 21%. According to
                                                              Redseer, cloud kitchens are expected to expand to a USD2bn industry in India by
                                                              2024 from USD400mn in 2019.

                                                              Zomato has categorically denied opening cloud kitchens as it may present a conflict
                                                              with restaurant partners. However, its primary competitor, Swiggy has been
                                                              aggressively expanding in this space over the last couple of years. However, a key
                                                              difference between the cloud kitchens set up by Swiggy and its global counterparts
                                                              is that most global businesses collaborate with top restaurants for cloud kitchens,
                                                              whereas Swiggy runs its own cloud kitchens.

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                                                                        Global companies – Cloud kitchens

                                                          Source: Company, Edelweiss Research

                                                          Deliveroo was one of the first major companies to launch its shared kitchen in
                                                          London in 2016. It has since gradually expanded to eight countries and operates
                                                          more than 250 cloud kitchens. The company has tied up with top restaurants such
                                                          as Blend, Petit Camodge, Tripletta and Santosha while opening its cloud kitchen in
                                                          Paris.

                                                          Similarly, Doordash has tied up with the likes of Aria Korean Street Food, Canter’s
                                                          Deli, Curry Up Now, Milk Bar, The Melt Express, and Chick-fil-A to cater to the areas
                                                          wherein demand has been high.

                                                          While Doordash had started experimenting with the concept of ‘Ghost’ or ‘cloud’
                                                          kitchens in 2019, it could not find much success as restaurants complained that costs
                                                          were still elevated. Now, Doordash is absorbing most of the other costs, thereby
                                                          reducing the burden on restaurants. This model has proven to be more successful
                                                          with more restaurants now adopting this system, given downside is capped.

                                                          Another trend catching up in cloud kitchens globally is multiple restaurants using the
                                                          same kitchen space to dish out their products. This also allows delivery partners to
                                                          pick up multiple orders from the same location, further improving efficiency. It also
                                                          allows companies to charge a higher take rate to restaurants as they start providing
                                                          more value. The added benefit of developing deeper and stickier relationships with
                                                          restaurants is also no less significant for food aggregators.

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                                                              Quality of network effect is modest
                                                               The network effect in food delivery platforms is curtailed due to local clustering,
                                                                commoditised offerings and vulnerability to multi-homing.

                                                               Network effect for food delivery platforms is somewhat similar to ride hailing
                                                                and is lower than global platforms in messaging and social media.

                                                               Typically a large player dominates food delivery, even in large markets (US,
                                                                China); nevertheless, it has limited pricing power and hence low profitability.

                                                               Restaurants are trying to disintermediate food delivery platforms by going direct,
                                                                but considering challenges of on-boarding customers on individual restaurant
                                                                platforms, they may succeed only in gourmet food or high-order value cases.

                                                              Network effects are weaker in food delivery versus other businesses
     Network effect is determined by network                  While almost all platform businesses boast network effect, the quality of network
     clustering, commoditised or differentiated               effect varies across different businesses; it is determined by many factors such as
     supply, vulnerability to multi-homing and                network clustering, commoditised versus differentiated supply, venerability to
     risk of disintermediation                                multi-homing and risk of disintermediation. Network effects for food delivery
                                                              business are modest compared to other industries such as social media, search
                                                              engines, classifieds, etc. Weak network effects are largely on account of local
                                                              clustering, that is the customer is concerned about the choice and quality of services
                                                              in a micro-market and hence as long as he/she has better experience than any other
                                                              platform, he’ll be loyal to the platform.

                     Network effects in food delivery are modest
                                                                                          Commoditized/
                                                                           Network                        Vulnerability to                  Risk of
     Industry                        Examples                                              Differentiated                                                   Overall
                                                                          Clustering                       multi-homing           disintermediation
                                                                                                  Supply
     Social Media                    Facebook, Twitter                             5                     5              5                           5           20
     Search Engine                   Google, Bing                                  5                     4              5                           5           19
     Content Platforms               Netflix, Hotstar                              5                     4              4                           3           16
     B2B Classified                  IndiaMART, Udaan                              4                     3              4                           4           15
     Dating                          Tinder, Bumble                                3                     4              4                           3           14
     E-commerce                      Amazon, Flipkart                              4                     3              2                           4           13
     Matrimony                       Matrimony, Shaadi                             3                     4              3                           3           13
     P2P payment platforms           PayTM, GooglePay                              4                     2              3                           3           12
     Food Delivery Platforms         Zomato, Swiggy                                1                     3              3                           3           10
     Ride Hailing                    Uber, Ola                                     2                     2              2                           3            9
     Travel portal                   MakeMyTrip, EaseMyTrip                        4                     2              1                           2            9
    Source: Edelweiss Research

                                                              Network effect helps achieve scale, but pricing power is limited
                                                              Various factors determine the quality of network effect, such as: i) network
                                                              clustering (local or global clustering); ii) commoditized or differentiated supply; iii)
                                                              vulnerability to multi-homing; and iv) risk of disintermediation.

                                                              Besides, the gradient of customer acquisition cost (CAC) over time series is a good
                                                              measure of the quality of network effect. Exhibit 13 summarises network effects in
                                                              case of food delivery platforms.

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                                                                           Scorecard for quality of network effect for food delivery platforms
                                                             Parameter                     Score     Remark
                                                                                                     Food delivery platforms are local in nature as a limited
                                                             Network clustering             Low
                                                                                                     number of restaurants can cater to a cluster
                                                             Commoditized or
                                                                                         Medium      Few exclusive cloud kitchen and restaurants tie-ups
                                                             differentiated supply
                                                                                                     Multi-homing is possible but only a few platforms are
                                                             Vulnerability to multi-
                                                                                         Medium      there and consumer can be locked into with loyalty
                                                             homing
                                                                                                     program
                                                             Risk of
                                                                                           High      Risk of disintermediation is real only in high-value items
                                                             disintermediation
                                                                                                     Network effect strong enough to drive scale but not
                                                             Overall                     Medium
                                                                                                     pricing power
                                                             Source: Company

                                                             Network clustering
                                                             In terms of network clustering, food delivery platforms are local in nature; these
                                                             platforms may boast a large number of restaurants, but for a customer, only the
                                                             number of restaurants that can deliver to them matters. Hence, if in one locality a
                                                             platform can on-board a higher number of restaurants and a have sufficient delivery
                                                             fleet to match another platform, consumers in that area will want to migrate to that
                                                             platform considering more choice is offered.

                                                             Hence, a higher number of restaurants at overall level does not add value to the
                                                             network if the size of the network in certain area is weak. Localisation reduces the
                                                             barrier to entry and hence there have been examples of existing players losing
                                                             market shares to newer and more efficient players. Despite DoorDash’s late entry in
                                                             the US food delivery market, it captured a 55% market share on the back of its
                                                             efficiencies.

     Food delivery platforms are local in nature
                                                             Initially, the US too had more localised monopolies, creating an oligopolistic
     as only a limited number of restaurants can             structure at a national level. Grubhub was a leader at the national level. However,
     cater to a cluster                                      DoorDash scaled up much faster than any other player during the pandemic with
                                                             better execution—largely around the number of restaurants, delivery speed, etc.
                                                             This helped DoorDash notch up a nearly 55% market share, whereas other players
                                                             lost market share.

                                                             We note that even in larger markets, superior execution can rapidly drive market
                                                             share. Hence in a market like India, which has a long growth runway, better
                                                             execution to drive growth is key to value creation.

                                                                           Food delivery market share in US

                                                             Source: Bloomberg second measure

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                                                              Commoditized or differentiated supply
     Food delivery platforms can differentiate via
                                                              Food delivery platforms tend to fall somewhere between commoditized and
     exclusive tie-ups with local popular                     differentiated supply. On the one hand, the supply is differentiated because there
     restaurants, but it comes at a cost                      are many restaurants and types of foods to choose from. Some platforms even have
                                                              an exclusive partnership with popular restaurants. On the other hand, if all of these
                                                              food delivery platforms provide more or less the same menu – all restaurants are
                                                              available across platforms – the supply would get commoditized. The point
                                                              of differentiation therefore shifts to delivery cost, delivery speed, ease of use
                                                              and other features.

                                                              Vulnerability to multi-homing
     Food delivery platforms are addressing                   Multi-homing measures the switching cost of a platform. It simply means how easy
     multi-homing issues by introducing loyalty               is it for users to switch among platforms that provide similar services. Food delivery
     programs                                                 platforms may see multi-homing on both – consumer and delivery personnel side.
                                                              To reduce multi-homing, companies can opt for loyalty bonus or membership
                                                              offerings that promote frequent ordering on one platform, or they can enter into
                                                              exclusive partnerships with popular restaurants. Some platforms also introduce
                                                              their own cloud kitchen, which not only increases choice, but also captures a higher
                                                              portion of value from the transaction.

                                                                            Swiggy Super and Zomato Pro – A comparative snapshot
                                                                                    Swiggy Super                                                Zomato Pro
                                                               Price                INR89 (Bit)/ INR169 (Bite)/ INR329 (Binge) per month INR200/3 months
                                                                                                                                                Up to 30% extra off
                                                                                    Bit' plan - Five free deliveries per month.
                                                                                                                                                on food deliveries
                                                                                                                                                up to 40% off on
                                                                                    'Bite' plan - Ten free deliveries per month and one
                                                                                                                                                each dining
                                                               Features             'Buy One Get One free' from restaurant partners
                                                                                                                                                experience
                                                                                    'Binge' plan - Unlimited free deliveries and unlimited
                                                                                                                                           Faster delivery with
                                                                                    'Buy One Get One free' offers from partner
                                                                                                                                           top-rated valets
                                                                                    restaurants
                                                               Cities               80                                                          41
                                                               Partner Restaurants > 7,000                                                      >25,000
                                                              Source: Company, Edelweiss Research

                                                              Risk of disintermediation – Low in most cases
     Since impromptu and frequent ordering
                                                              Food delivery platforms, for a small fee, offer consumers choice, ease and consistent
     drives the bulk of order value on food                   ordering experience, which has led to their rapid adoption among consumers.
     platforms, we believe the risk of                        However, for restaurants, food delivery platforms charge a significant commission
     disintermediation is low                                 for availing a higher catchment area and an on-demand delivery fleet. High take rate
                                                              impacts profitability of restaurants, especially for high-value orders. Hence,
                                                              premium restaurants are increasingly looking to connect directly with consumers for
                                                              food delivery. However, since impromptu and frequent ordering drives the bulk of
                                                              order value, we believe the risk of disintermediation remains low.

                                                              Weaker network effect has kept profitability under check
                                                              Due to local clustering of food delivery platforms, the risk of disruption by a new
                                                              player remains high. Hence, we note, largest players typically command a market
                                                              share of 50%-plus in most geographies, but they still operate at low margins.
                                                              Despite over a 65% market share in the Chinese market, Meituan’s operating profit
                                                              margin in food delivery is a meagre 4.3%. Most other companies have a negative
                                                              operating profit.
                                                              That said, we expect profitability to improve as market matures and larger players
                                                              create efficiencies of scale, which act as entry barriers for new players.

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                                                                           Operating margins of global companies are low

                                                             Source: Company, Edelweiss Research

                                                             Dissecting disintermediation
                                                              Restaurants are keen on exploring solutions to reduce their dependence on food
                                                               delivery platforms considering high take rates that eat into their profitability.

                                                              SaaS-based ordering platforms such as Dotpe and Thrive are creating ordering
                                                               platforms for restaurants, along with integration of third-party logistics players
                                                               for order fulfilment.

                                                              While deploying these solutions is relatively easy, pushing consumers to adopt
                                                               direct ordering is the biggest challenge for restaurants.

                                                              We see large QSRs and chain restaurants with enough resources to drive direct
                                                               ordering; other restaurants will find it challenging to market their platforms.

                                                             Direct delivery – Crucial to restaurants’ profitability
     Shift in restaurant business in favour of
                                                             Although food delivery platforms help restaurants drive volumes, they also create
     delivery, from dine-in in the wake of the               two challenges: i) food delivery platforms do not share customer data with
     pandemic has eaten into their profitability             restaurants; hence restaurants find it difficult to create patronage; and ii) food
                                                             delivery platforms charge a high fee, which hurts profitability. High fees is a major
                                                             challenge for premium restaurants. Many dine-in restaurants do not offer home
                                                             delivery due to high charges levied by delivery platforms. However, the pandemic
                                                             has significantly altered the revenue mix for restaurants with dine-in revenue almost
                                                             entirely going away.

                                                             In order to address the issue of consumer data and high commissions, some
                                                             restaurants are working with SaaS platforms such as DotPe and Thrive to create
                                                             seamless ordering systems. These ordering systems, if required, can also source
                                                             delivery fleet from third-party delivery partners such as Dunzo, WeFast and
                                                             Shadowfax.

                                                             In order to drive usage of their own platforms, restaurants are leveraging social
                                                             media platforms, such as Instagram and Facebook for popularising their services.
                                                             Indian Hotels has also launched their own app “Qmin” offering food delivery from
                                                             their restaurants and kitchens with an order threshold of INR1,000.

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                  DotPe – Direct delivery

    Source: Company, Edelweiss Research

                                                              Discovery and variety – A key challenge for customers
                                                              In terms of experience, we note consumers are likely to go to the restaurant portal
                                                              to order only if they are aware of the direct ordering facility, are sufficiently
                                                              incentivised, and the experience is hassle-free, if not as good as ordering on a food
                                                              delivery platform. To incentivise, restaurants offer no delivery fee apart from other
                                                              discounts. Since the address and payment details are stored by SaaS platforms,
                                                              despite their web-based interface, user experience is reasonably smooth.

     Discovery is the key challenge for direct
                                                              While direct-to-consumer has numerous advantages for restaurants, the main
     delivery                                                 challenge continues to discovery. These companies have also realised this problem
                                                              and have hence tied up with popular payment platforms such as GPay, PhonePe and
                                                              Paytm. Using these apps, customers can search for restaurants and order directly via
                                                              these apps without the hassle of searching them individually.

                                                              Although this aids discoverability, the experience is not as sophisticated as on food
                                                              delivery platforms since there are no options to sort restaurants according to various
                                                              parameters, there is no visibility on how much time a restaurant will take to deliver,
                                                              ratings of the restaurants, etc. Considering payment apps are not sufficiently
                                                              integrated with restaurants’ and third-party logistics providers, we do not expect
                                                              discovery platforms to become as sophisticated as food delivery platforms, and thus
                                                              user experience is likely to be sub-par.

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                 Direct food ordering is available on multiple platforms

     Source: Company

                                                              Consumer experience, outside discovery, is seamless
                                                              Technology integration for direct delivery works in such a way that SaaS platforms
                                                              can on-board restaurants in a matter of days by creating digital menus, integrating
                                                              the billing system and offering third-party delivery platforms on-the-go. For high-
                                                              ticket size, third-party delivery platform costs work out lower than those charged by
                                                              delivery platforms.

                                                              Since SaaS platforms work this through an Application Programing Interface (API),
                                                              consumers have a reasonably seamless experience with a WhatsApp or SMS update
                                                              on food dispatch with a link to track delivery personnel in real time.

                                                              Direct delivery – Impact varies for players
      Impact of direct delivery will vary for each            We believe different segments of restaurants face their own set of challenges –
      segment of restaurants.                                 resource availability and dependence on food delivery platforms is different – due
                                                              to which their possibility and success in adoption of direct ordering will be different.
                                                              Hence, we are evaluating the opportunities and success possibilities for each
                                                              segment separately. We are broadly classifying restaurants into three categories: i)
                                                              large QSR chains and cloud kitchens; ii) large chain restaurants; and iii) standalone
                                                              restaurants and eateries.
                                                              Large QSR chains and cloud kitchens
                                                              Large and popular QSR chains such as McDonald’s, Domino’s and KFC as well as large
                                                              cloud kitchens such as Rebel Foods (which owns brands such as Faasos, Behrouz
                                                              Biryani and Oven Story), Poncho Hospitality (which owns Box8 and Mojo Pizza),
                                                              typically have their own apps for food delivery.

                                                              These companies also possess enough financial, marketing and logistics muscle to
                                                              provide a full stack of services. Furthermore, they can drive discovery through digital
                                                              marketing branding campaigns. However, customers are unlikely to download many
                                                              QSRs or cloud kitchen apps; hence, we argue food delivery platforms would continue
                                                              to drive the bulk of delivery business.

                                                              We note that success of direct delivery has been mixed for companies. Domino’s has
                                                              been particularly successful with ‘30 minutes delivery’ addressing customers’
                                                              craving at breakneck speed. Other QSR chains and cloud kitchens are relatively less
                                                              successful due to their inability to match this speed and other factors.

18        Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset      Edelweiss Securities Limited
ZOMATO

                                                              However, with food aggregators gaining prominence, most of these companies have
                                                              been unable to match the ease of use provided by aggregators. User experience for
                                                              food aggregators has been far superior to those provided by these apps. We believe
                                                              that this section of restaurants will be able to get 20–30% food delivery on their own
                                                              platforms. The proportion of direct ordering will be a function of strength of the
                                                              brand and their execution capabilities.

                  McDonald’s, Domino’s and Faasos food delivery

    Source: Company, Edelweiss Research

                                                              Popular chain restaurants
                                                              Popular chain restaurants are characterised by high patronage, repeat customers
                                                              and relatively high AOV. They typically rely on dine-in patrons for revenue, but the
                                                              pandemic changed this dynamic. Since the take rate for aggregators is high, these
                                                              restaurants have faced a major brunt, having to pay a significant amount to the likes
                                                              of Zomato and Swiggy. Discovery is not a major issue for these restaurants as they
                                                              are anyway well-known.

     Popular chain restaurants have been at the
                                                              Consequently, these restaurants have been at the forefront of the direct delivery
     forefront of direct delivery since they have to          campaign. While these restaurants do have a certain connect with customers, their
     pay high take rates to food aggregators.                 ability to drive these customers to direct delivery portal, by discounting, by
                                                              marketing will determine their success. We note that chain restaurants will have to
                                                              invest sufficient marketing resources to drive traffic to their own portal.

                                                              Some of SaaS based ordering platforms suggest high adoption by restaurants –DotPe
                                                              claiming 150k partner restaurants and Tribe suggests another 15k. However, we
                                                              believe that some of these restaurant partnerships would be for features other than
                                                              delivery, and only a handful of restaurants would promote their own delivery. In
                                                              terms of cost, Tribe indicated 3% of the GMV as platforms fees and third-part
                                                              delivery may charge ~INR100 for delivery. Hence, assuming a 10% marketing cost
                                                              and a 10% discount, own platform breaks even at an order value of INR1,000. This is
                                                              significantly higher than Zomato, whose AOV would be lower than INR400. Hence,
                                                              we believe that only a handful of restaurants would opt for standalone delivery
                                                              platforms, and it would drive 15–20% of their delivery volumes.

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ZOMATO

                                                                           Breakeven analysis – Own platform vis-à-vis Zomato/ Swiggy
                                                              (INR)                                             Own Platform              Zomato/ Swiggy
                                                             AOV                                                             1000                     1000
                                                             Platform Fees/ Commission                                        3%                       30%
                                                             Platform Fees per order                                           30                      300
                                                             Delivery Charges                                                  70
                                                             Marketing Costs                                                  100
                                                             Discount                                                         100
                                                             Total Costs                                                      300                      300
                                                             Source: Edelweiss Research

                                                             Standalone restaurants

     Small standalone restaurants are likely to              For small standalone restaurants, while implementing order management platform
     continue to remain dependent on food                    is relatively easy, diverting orders to their own platforms will be challenging. We
     aggregators                                             believe that restaurateurs will find it challenging to attract consumers to their
                                                             platforms. Hence, we believe that this segment is unlikely to see any traction with
                                                             direct ordering. Consequently, they will continue to remain dependent on food
                                                             aggregators for both discovery and delivery.

                                                             We believe that most restaurants are not adequately equipped to drive the
                                                             marketing campaigns for online ordering platforms. From consumers’ side, while the
                                                             ordering experience is seamless, discovery will be a challenge.

                                                             We believe that consumers are likely to order from standalone platforms only in case
                                                             they are aware exactly what they are looking to order, and are adequately informed
                                                             about the benefits thereof. Standalone restaurants will require significant marketing
                                                             support, which smaller restaurants will not be able to manage. Hence, we believe
                                                             adoption of the standalone platform will be limited to premium restaurants or larger
                                                             chains that can muscle resources for adequate marketing push.

20       Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset          Edelweiss Securities Limited
ZOMATO

                                                               Valuation
                                                                The pandemic has made food delivery platforms all the more relevant for
                                                                 consumers and restaurants alike, leading to a spurt in their valuations. Zomato’s
                                                                 global peers are trading at one-year forward price to sales of 5–12x, depending
                                                                 on market growth and maturity, and their strength in respective markets.

                                                                Our two-stage DCF yields a valuation of INR1.1tn (USD15.1bn) for Zomato’s food
                                                                 delivery platform business, which implies an FY23E price to sales of 18.3x,
                                                                 significantly higher than global peers, due to its superior growth profile.

                                                                We do see potential for Zomato to create value from adjacencies over the long
                                                                 term considering its quality of engagement, and are building in another INR90bn
                                                                 (USD1.3bn, INR12/share) value for this optionality.
                                                                Key valuations risks are: i) Change in AOV, unit economics and ordering frequency
                                                                 are the biggest valuation vectors; a mere INR10 change in AOV can move the
                                                                 valuation by 5%. ii) The quality of disclosures so far has been patchy, which may
                                                                 impact its valuation in the future. iii) Execution vis-a-vis competition.

                                                               Global peers’ valuations depend on growth profile and market share
                                                               Meituan, the world’s largest online food delivery company, trades at a 1-year
                                                               forward P/S of 6.5x. The sharp drop in its valuation has largely been due to the
                                                               crackdown of the Chinese government on several businesses. DoorDash, which has
                                                               defied competition over the last year and emerged as the clear leader in US markets,
                                                               trades at a 1-year forward valuation of 11.3x. We note Meituan reported 17.7%
                                                               growth in CY20 while DoorDash grew by 226.1%. Delivery Hero trades at 5.5x 1-year
                                                               forward P/S.

                                                               All players have varying market positioning and growth rates, and that is driving the
                                                               difference in their valuations. On EV/EBITDA, Meituan is trading at 311.4x CY22 while
                                                               Doordash is trading at 157.6x CY22. We note that most of these platforms are
                                                               currently loss-making; hence valuations are unarguably high if we take their earnings
                                                               into consideration.

     MCap/ GMV is a relevant metric to compare
                                                               In our view though m-cap/GMV is an apt way to compare the valuations of these
     valuations of companies since they have                   companies and way more indicative since most of these companies have different
     different revenue recognition policies.                   revenue recognition policies. On this yardstick, most companies are trading cheaper
                                                               at 1–3x at P/GMV, but Zomato is much more expensive at 12.3x. We argue that
                                                               despite Zomato’s superior growth profile and larger opportunity size, such
                                                               valuations indicate that growth is adequately priced in.

                  Peer comparison
                                            2020-2024               P/S            P/E               P/B            EV/Revenue            EV/EBTIDA            P/GOV
                           Market Cap Revenue EBITDA TTM 1 Year- Fwd 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023                                     2020
     Meituan                  2,12,443       37.8     87.2    8.5          6.5           79.1 13.2 13.0 11.4        7.1   5.1    3.9         311.4    54.4       2.4
     Doordash                   63,441       32.6     64.9    9.7         11.3 244.3 163.7 13.1 12.7 10.8 12.3            9.9    8.1 186.7 130.9      67.1       2.6
     Delivery Hero              33,159       64.8             6.6          5.5                24.4 24.9 44.0        5.1   3.4    2.5                 390.8       2.4
     Just Eat Takeaway          14,663       40.5     19.8     3                               1.0    1.1   1.2     2.8   2.1    1.7                  64.4       1.3
     Zomato                     16,196                       36.8         21.7                 6.9    7.0   6.9 24.3 16.7 11.8                                  12.3
    Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss Research

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