Democratic Presidential Primary Results - Through Super Tuesday 3,979 Total Delegates - U.S. Chamber of Commerce
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Democratic Presidential Primary Results
Through Super Tuesday
3,979 Total Delegates
1,991 To Win First Ballot at Convention
771 “Superdelegates” Vote on Second Ballot
1,512 Delegates through March 4
S1
What We Learned in the Early States
IOWA NEW HAMPSHIRE
✓ 60% want a nominee who can beat Trump ✓ Trump received 129k votes, 2x > Obama in 2012
✓ Turnout #172K / Slight increase over 2016 ✓ Klobuchar had a breakout debate performance — 3rd
✓ Mayor Pete won by .1% ✓ Bernie wins as expected – 25.7% - lowest in state history
✓ Lowest overall winning % ever – 26.2% / no bounce ✓ Mayor Pete is a strong second
✓ 3 part vote-counting process –Final IA Caucus? ✓ Counted all votes on election night
NEVADA
✓ 65% want a nominee who can beat Trump
SOUTH CAROLINA
✓ 80% of voters want a nominee who can beat Trump
✓ Bernie wins BIG 47% / Biden #2 -20%
✓ Biden landslide 48% / Bernie 20%
✓ 27% AA / 51% Hispanics / 29% white vote
✓ Very diverse state / 57% AA/ Clyburn endorsement big (25%)
✓ Only 11% seniors / 23% white college educated women
✓ SC lowest unemployment / 2.3%
✓ Bloomberg’s first shot at debate stage
✓ 39% call healthcare #1 issue
✓ Medicare for All (top issue) vs powerful Culinary Union
✓ Turnout – white ↑ 5% / older , more moderate than ’16
✓ Steyer $ drops out – $395/vote / ≈ $3,400 / 0 delegates
S2
Super Tuesday– 14 States
Winner ✓ Bloomberg on the ballot for the first time/ spent $198M
Biden
✓ Steyer spend $35M
Alabama
✓ Bernie spend $13M
American Samoa Bloomberg
Arkansas Biden
California 415 Sanders
Colorado Sanders
Maine Biden
Massachusetts Biden
Minnesota Biden
North Carolina 110 Biden
Oklahoma Biden
Tennessee Biden
Texas 228 Biden
Utah Sanders
Vermont Sanders
Virginia 99 Biden
38% of delegates now awarded
A3
Tuesday, March 10th
352 Delegates; 1,863 Awarded (46%)
Over $1B Spent
Idaho Missouri Michigan
20 Delegates 68 Delegates 125 Delegates
20% AA *’16 Upset
North Dakota Mississippi Washington
14 Delegates 36 Delegates 89 Delegates
70% AA Caucus to Primary
A4
Democratic Spending and the Cash Contest
Through February
Reported Raised
Bloomberg $464,145,124
Steyer $271,575,697 / 0 Delegates
Bloomberg:
Sanders $134,151,727 / $46M in Feb Total: $558M
Warren $93,028,094 / $29M in Feb - $9.6M per delegate
- Spent $5.4M a day
Buttigieg $82,998,032 - Spent $227K an hour
Biden $69,947,288 / $18M in Feb
Klobuchar $34,478,549
S5
Bloomberg’s visual market-share of Super Tuesday
television advertising
- Not including digital
Source: New York Times S6
Bloomberg’s Market Disruption is Real
Costs per Gross Rating Point
Spent $262M in January
30,000 YouTube and Google Ads per Minute
Atlanta: +52%
Charlotte: +124%
$1,376
Portland: +134%
$1,197
$965 $965
Atlanta
$908
$709
$577
$608
$577
$316
Charlotte
$369 $369
$278
$236
Portland $158
Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20
A7
New Front Runner Biden
Stunning Super Tuesday Wins
• Coalition of African Americans / suburbanites/ older voters
• Momentum mattered
• Late deciders/ electability
• Klobuchar and Mayor Pete’s exit gave Biden the moderate lane
• 6 in 10 voters want a nominee who can beat Trump
• Won states– never visited/ spent no $ / had zero field offices
S8
The Other Front Runner
Coalition of Latinos and young progressives/ liberals
The Bernie movement based on distrust of corporations,
government, institutions, banks, and the wealthy
Campaign promises:
✓ Guarantee healthcare to all people as a right
✓ Greed of pharmaceutical industry must end
✓ Make public colleges + universities tuition free
✓ Lower/ wipe out current student debt
2016 Lesson– Bernie → Trump/ Trump → Bernie Transcends party or policies
S9
Bernie’s Stump Speech:
• Not spend $700B on military annually
• Pass comprehensive immigration reform / path to citizenship
• Create 13M jobs
• Overturn Citizens United- publically fund elections
• Green New Deal
• Class warfare vs corporate elite
Muscle – 9M Twitter followers vs POTUS 40M
• Online attention 24M/week vs POTUS 64M/week
• Over 2M individual donors / no high dollar $ events / repeat donors ≈ $20
Bottom Line:
• Agitator / outsider / ran as an Independent in VT
• Loner on Capitol Hill / ideologically rigid
• Not expanding base vs 2016 race
S10Trump’s GOP
92% Support
• Trump launched his fundraising apparatus immediately after his inauguration
• Had raised $100M by Election Day in 2018 for himself
• New $580,000-per-couple joint fundraising committee with the RNC
• Impeachment fundraising success– $60M in two weeks
• ActBlue raised $1B vs WinRed $100M in 2019 – Good start
• Trump Campaign and RNC on pace for $400M cash on hand by the Democratic convention in
July
• Raised $86M in February and held over 100 political rallies since inauguration / collecting data
A11The National Horserace and Public Polling
Averages
49.8%
49.4%
44.4% 44.5%
Source: Real Clear Politics
A12Electoral College Scenario
The Rust Belt vs The Sun Belt
6 Battlegrounds- AZ/ MI/ WI/ PA/ NC/ FL
Scenarios
(1) Lose MI + PA = 270 W
(2) Lose FL = 277 W
(3) Lose MI + PA + WI = 260 L
(4) Lose FL + AZ = 266 L
(5) Lose MI + PA + = 269 Tie
NE-2
Watch ME–CD-2 / NM/ MN
S13The 2020 Census and Population Changes
by State
+1
+1 -1
-1
-1
-1
-1 -1
+1 -1
-1
+1
+1
-1 Gaining Seats
+3 Losing Seats
+2
A14Trump’s job approval has been consistent in the
mid-40’s, but a majority approve of the job he’s doing
on the economy
Handling the
Economy
Overall
56%
46%
Source: Real Clear Politics A15Six in ten report being “better off than three
years ago”
Are you better off than you were three years ago or not?
Yes, better off No, not better off
% %
2020 61✔ 36
2012 45 52
2004 50* 42
1996 50* 34
1992 50* 38
Source: Gallup
S16Progressive policies were equally popular in the
McGovern era (1972) compared to 2020
1972 2020
Single-Payer Health Care 69% 53%
Federal Jobs Guarantee 79% 69%
Higher Income Taxes on Wealthy 77% 68%
Higher Corporate Taxes 67% 56%
Stricter Gun Control 62% 60%
Tax on Unrealized Capital Gains 71% 69%
Cut Defense Spending 50% 29%
Abolish Electoral College 80% 53%
Allow Ex-convicts to Vote n/a 68%
Marijuana Decriminalization 16% 62%
Raise Minimum Wage 46% 54%
Break up Large Corporations 61% 47%
Source: Gallup
S17The Chamber’s Top Three Political Priorities
1 Maintain a pro-growth majority in the U.S. Senate
as a backstop; 35 races
2 Encourage bipartisan governing
3 Support more centrist House Democrats
A18Utilizing All of Our Political Assets
Federation
Partners
Comms Political
Advocacy
Team Committee
U.S.
Voter
Chamber
Education
PAC
$
$
Regional
Team
S19U.S. Senate Top Priorities
Toss Up Toss Up Toss Up Lean GOP Lean GOP Likely GOP
OUTSPENT LOW NAME
OUTSPENT PRIMARY
OUTRAISED heavily in ID but cleared
$5M vs $4M against OUTRAISED
every quarter 2019, $5M vs GOP primary
in 2019 Collins
$5,000 in 2019
Trump Won Trump Lost Trump Won
53% Job Running behind Trump Lost Trump Won Trump Won +
Approval POTUS Tied Jungle + Running behind
Tied - POTUS
A20Second Tier Targeted Senate States
Alabama Kansas Montana Tennessee
Lean GOP Lean GOP Lean GOP* Solid GOP
“ABRM”
Filing deadline is 6/2 Daines $5M COH Ambassador Hagerty
March 31st Runoff
5 GOP Candidates Gov. Bullock August 6th Primary
Sessions vs Tuberville
S21On a scale of 1-9 with 1 being not important at all, 5 being important, and 9 being
extremely important, how important is each of the following issues or news stories to Ind
you in deciding how to vote for Congress in the future?
1 Need to get things done in Washington & get the parties to work together 7.26
2 The economy and jobs 6.93
Independents 3
4
Cost of living
Foreign policy/Terrorism/Iran/situation in the Middle East
6.75
6.45
Place Premium 5 The debate regarding the cost of prescription drugs 6.40
on Progress 6
7
Affordable Care Act/health care/single payer/Medicare for All
Trade/Tariffs/China/Trade agreement with Mexico & Canada
6.14
6.02
and 8
9
Border security
Climate change
5.98
5.78
Bipartisanship 10
11
Abortion issues
Issues related to women
5.34
5.33
12 Discussions about socialism 4.87
13 Allegations of Donald Trump ties to Russia 4.85
14 Impeachment of the President 4.82
15 Democratic Presidential Primary 4.79
16 Democrats’ subpoenas of Trump officials 4.62
Source: Winston Group Discussion Points
S22Why 2019 USCC Political Activity Mattered
1. Incumbent GOP Senators were struggling with low job approval and image ratings
Thin voter knowledge of legislative accomplishments and records: 75% votes on
2. personnel – Judges/cabinet/subcabinet – #200
Course correcting with suburban, college educated women who support pro-growth
3. issue sets
Local focus on real life difference makers: apprenticeships (ME), infrastructure and
4. USMCA (AZ), veterans and their spouses in the workforce (NC)
5. Spending in Maine topped $9M in 2019, expected to surpass $60M through the cycle
Chamber fall initiative – Award for Perdue/USMCA digital spot – “Best Online Video”
6. 2019
A232020 Program
1. Focus on clear windows in the political calendar– break through clutter
2. Spend early – define terms of the debate on jobs + economic growth
3. Lots of women as messengers in commercials
4. Suburban market focus where we can gain expertise on messaging and effectiveness
5. Spend before rates skyrocket on Labor Day/ Presidential debates
Senate focused specific markets: Maricopa County in Phx, Portland in ME, Charlotte and
6. Greensboro in NC, Denver in Colorado, Atlanta in GA, Des Moines in IA
S24Early 2020 Activity in Key House Contests
TX-28 – Representative Henry Cuellar (D)
• Endorsement event on February 18 with TAB and the Laredo
Chamber of Commerce in Laredo, TX
• Won
WI-07 – Nominee Tom Tiffany (R)
• Endorsement event on February 6 with the WMC at Schuette
Metals in Wasau, WI
• Won the special primary on February 18
AL-02 – Nominee Jeff Coleman (R)
• Endorsement event on February 12 with the BCA and Dothan
Chamber at the AL Truckers Association in Montgomery, AL
• Former BCA Chairman
• Roby open seat
• Runoff on 3/31
A25U.S. House
There are 30 Democrats in “Trump” 2016 Districts
AZ-01 NY-18 IL-14 *NJ-03 OK-05 • GOP Needs + 18 for Majority
IA-02 PA-08 *ME-02 NJ-11 PA-17 • GOP really needs + 20
• Lose 2 NC seats/ redistricting
IL-17 GA-06 MI-08 NM-02 SC-01
• History- WH + party net +5-7
MN-07 WI-03 MI-11 NY-11 UT-04
House seats
NH-01 IA-01 *MN-02 NY-19 VA-02
• Impeachment vote – tough
NJ-05 IA-03 NY-22 VA-07 NV-03
* Voted NO on impeachment
S26Cord-Cutting Accelerated in 2019, Raising Pressure
on Cable Providers
State Cord Cutters
Iowa 32%
North Carolina 39%
Arizona 33%
Colorado 33%
Maine 26%
Georgia 43%
A27The DNA
of a
“Chamber”
modeled
voter
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