DIGITAL AUTO REPORT 2021 - ACCELERATING TOWARDS THE "NEW NORMAL" VOLUME 1 - PWC STRATEGY

 
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DIGITAL AUTO REPORT 2021 - ACCELERATING TOWARDS THE "NEW NORMAL" VOLUME 1 - PWC STRATEGY
Digital Auto Report 2021
Accelerating towards
the “new normal”

 VOLUME 1
DIGITAL AUTO REPORT 2021 - ACCELERATING TOWARDS THE "NEW NORMAL" VOLUME 1 - PWC STRATEGY
Volume 1

                                                              Assessing global mobility
                                                              market dynamics
                                                              • Market outlook – penetration of technologies and mobility types
                                                              • Technology – shifting gears in connected, electric, automated

Digital Auto Report                                           • Customers – changing mobility preferences: everything-as-a-service?
                                                              • Regulation – slowdown or acceleration of key policies?

2021 – Volume 1                                               Volume 2

                                                              Capturing value with new
                                                              mobility business models
                  ✓ Tenth annual Digital Auto Report,
                      developed by Strategy& and PwC          What to offer and how much to gain?

                  ✓ Global consumer survey with a focus
                      on the US, EU and China (n = 3,000)
                      plus new view on Japan (n = 1,000)
                  ✓ Quantitative market outlook up to 2035,   Volume 3
                      based on regional structural analysis   Building software-defined
                  ✓ Interviews with industry executives at    vehicles and services
                      OEMs and suppliers, and with leading
                      academics and industry analysts         How to build up required capabilities?

Strategy& | PwC
Strategy&                                                                                                                             2
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DIGITAL AUTO REPORT 2021 - ACCELERATING TOWARDS THE "NEW NORMAL" VOLUME 1 - PWC STRATEGY
The mobility ecosystem is entering a new normal world,
with different adoption patterns and use cases by region
Executive summary – Volume 1
In the “new normal” world, two themes are having a major impact on auto executives’ strategy with regard to connected, electric, automated and smart mobility –
1) rising market attention on decarbonization / sustainability and 2) competitive pressure from maturing digital disruptors / “new kids on the block”.
97% of Chinese consumers want to change their mobility behavior to improve their CO2 footprint – vs. 70% in Germany and 52% in the U.S.
Switching to an electric vehicle is the preferred measure for achieving this goal in China and in the US, while Germans would like to do more walking / cycling.
In light of the ongoing pandemic, demand for public transport and shared mobility remains low – about half of the survey respondents (n = 4,0001) say they use
those modes less often than pre-COVID; ~30% of Germans / Americans now want to use their own vehicle more (59% in China).
Total vehicle parc projections up to 2035 see a stagnation in Europe2 (-0.6% p.a.) and Japan (-0.9% p.a.) – vs. marginal growth in the US (+1.3% p.a.) and
stronger growth in China (+3.9% p.a.); driven by 1) growing mobility demand, 2) customer preferences for own car and 3) vehicle disposal rate.
Vehicle connectivity is advancing, with 50% of total parc connected in Europe by 2025 (US by 2023, China by 2029). While OEMs are reaching a critical size with
their connected service customer base, they still struggle with reliable service delivery at scale (over-the-air update functionality).
E-mobility is at an inflection point in Europe, driven by a strong government drive (incentives and regulations), with 27% BEV share of new car sales in 2025 –
ahead of China (19%), US (6%) and Japan (5%). Slow charging infrastructure build-up will soon become the biggest growth hurdle.
Automated driving outlook is similar to previous year: in passenger transport, the technology will penetrate the market with a range of specific use cases that are
difficult to scale – L4 share of new cars at 14-15% by 2035 in Europe / China / Japan; industrial / logistics applications likely to grow faster.
Despite consumer reluctance to share vehicles or rides during the pandemic, smart mobility modes beyond vehicle ownership are expected to grow in the long term.
With rising number of car-subscription offerings, shared-active (e.g. rental, subscription) is expected to grow strongest in Europe (10% of total person kilometers by
2025), while shared-passive (e.g. ride-hailing) is expected to grow significantly more in China (10% vs. 1-3% in US and Europe).
Conclusion: differentiated view on CASE strategy and investment priorities is crucial for maintaining “license to operate” and creating value in automotive.
(→ covered in upcoming report volumes 2 and 3)

                             1) n= 1000 GER; 1000 US; 1000 CN; 1000 JP – focus in respective section on GER; US; CN 2) Europe refers to EU 27 + Norway + Great Britain + Switzerland within this report
Strategy&                    Note: Please refer to respective section for detailed assumptions and sources behind stated propositions                                                                     3
CASE themes continue to
drive the automotive
transformation –                                                                         Connected       Electric
Electric currently has
greatest impact”

                                                                                         Automated   Smart Mobility*
*Smart Mobility describes a transportation ecosystem where stakeholders use data and
connectivity to move people and goods sustainably and efficiently.
Shared mobility remains as a sub-segment and an important value pool in this ecosystem
focusing on people transport with passenger vehicles.

Strategy&                         Source: Strategy&                                                                    4
As the mobility ecosystem adjusts to the new normal,
many auto players will need to reboot their CASE strategies

  Consumer                          Technology                  Connected                  Automated

Consumer spend                 Flex-work is here to        With increasing digital    Consolidation of ADAS
reaching pre-COVID             stay, pushing demand        service portfolio and      players; OEMs review
levels; preference for         for remote tech; chip       functions-on-demand        their partners; L4 people
own (EV) car vs. public        shortage unlikely to be     now available, car OS      movers and robotaxis in
transport remains high         resolved before Q4-21       becomes top priority       trial mode everywhere

  Regulation                        Economics                   Smart mobility             Electric

EU/US decarbonization          As auto toplines recover,   Preference for private     Public incentives and
measures accelerate;           CEO attention is shifting   modes has paused           growing model choice
rising attention on            from liquidity towards      smart mobility growth,     has boosted EV demand;
(open) data, privacy           sustainable growth          but cities encouraged to   tipping point is near; infra-
and cybersecurity              investments                 run new transport trials   structure next bottleneck

Strategy&           Source: Strategy&                                                                          5
Sustainability has become a major driver for change in auto
2021 Highlight I: Sustainability

Sustainability transformation drivers                                                                                                                                       CASE implications

  Public perception                        Regulation                                      Net zero CO2 pathway                         Capital markets                     • More holistic view on ESG forces
                                                                                                                                                                              players to re-evaluate measures
  • Customers demand                       • EU taxonomy and ESG                           • Portfolio shift towards                    • Booming demand for ESG               – from drivetrain to cyber/data
     genuine     ESG1)   actions               reporting standards                             sustainable vehicles                       investment classes
                                                                                                                                                                            • Connected: Emission reductions
  • Employer brand to meet                 • Compliance system to                          • Invest balance of “old”                    • Growing relevance of top            via predictive driving/analytics,
     ESG talent expectations                   fulfill new regulations,                        (e.g. EURO7) vs. “new”                     ESG rating positions                but pressure on sustainable high-
                                               e.g. on cybersecurity                           tech (e.g. cell production)
  • Higher transparency on                                                                                                              • Maturing ESG investor               tech production
     social responsibility                 • Recalibration of KPI                          • Decarbonization of full                      reporting and changing
     along supply chain,                       systems to ESG topics,                          product lifecycle                          OEM equity story                  • Autonomous: Emission
     e.g. for battery materials                e.g. for executive pay                          including supply chain                                                         efficiency via optimized driving,
                                                                                                                                                                              but growing energy consumption
                                                                                                                                                                              for data compute
 73%        … of customers want to         41%        … Ø Zero Emission                    €1T        …EU Green Deal funding,           €120bn
            change their mobility                     Vehicle sales required for                      of which sustainable                 All-time high inflows in Q1/21   • Smart: Environmental benefits
            behavior to lower CO2                     CO2 compliance in 2030                          mobility is a central pillar         for EU sustainable funds2)         from multi-mode mobility, but
            emissions                                                                                                                      (plus 18% vs. Q1/20)               overall higher mobility demand
                                                                                                                                                                              as urban populations gain wealth
 86%        … of employees prefer          Nr.1                                             55% …reduction in passenger                 6/10
                                                      …barrier to ESG                                                                          … of best-performing
            to work for firms that
                                                      effectiveness is the lack                       car emissions by 2030                    funds in EU were related     • Electric: Zero emission vehicles,
            care about the same
                                                      of reporting standards                          (EU Green Deal)                          to ESG in Q1 2021              but need for sustainable battery
            issues they do
                                                                                                                                                                              production and recycling

                                     1) Environment, Social and Governance   2) Morningstar – European sustainable fund flows Q1 2021
Strategy&                            Source: PwC and Strategy& analysis                                                                                                                                      6
New entrants redefine the rules of the automotive value game
2021 Highlight II: New kids on the block
  Build and run            Supply                 Design and                 Retail                    Finance                   Operate                   Retail mobility
  infrastructure           components             build vehicles             vehicles                  vehicles                  fleets                    and services                              Selected key facts
                                                                 Traditional OEMs                                                 Illustrative
                                                                                                                                                                                                             ~45%
                                                    New Kids (charging, vehicle, service)                                                                                                             1      Overall profit expected to be
                                                                                                                                                                                                             generated from software in 20251)

                                                                                                                                                                                                             $199
                                                                                                                                                                                                      2      Tesla’s monthly subscription price
                                                                                                                                                                                                             for full self-driving capability2)
    1                                    2                                           3                                            4
            Value chain coverage              Recurring sales                                Efficient production                      Lean portfolio
        • Revenue generation                 • Instead of selling                        • Software-defined                           • Lean portfolio with                                                  2024
          along entire value                   one-time vehicles or                        vehicles replace the                         various software                                              3      Year in which BEV will achieve
          chain and especially                 services, new entrants                      traditional monolithic                       upgrade possibilities                                                production cost parity with ICE3)
          from software (from                  sell recurring                              OEM lifecycle                              • Fewer chassis, body
          charging infrastructure
          to mobility services)
                                               mobility services
                                               and subscription
                                                                                         • Chassis and body
                                                                                           change less frequent
                                                                                                                                        and interior selection
                                                                                                                                        possibilities
                                                                                                                                                                                                             ~11+ vs. ~7
                                                                                                                                                                                                      4      Average model runtime years
                                               based products                              while software is                            (package-based)                                                      Tesla Model S vs. traditional OEM
                                                                                           updated much more                                                                                                 models
                                                                                           quickly

                                                                                                                                                                                                      5
                                                                                                                                                                                                             $99bn
    5                                                                                                                                                                                                        Raised via automotive SPACs
            Ease of capital raise (e.g. through SPACs)                                                                                                                                                       in 20204)

                                    1) UBS Research – EV operating profits   2) IHS Markit   3) CMBI – NEV Sales April 2021   4) SPAC figures display cash made available trough SPAC; not post-SPAC valuation
Strategy&                           Source: Strategy&                                                                                                                                                                                    7
Acceleration of technology penetration will occur at varying
times and speeds globally, as local mobility is transformed
Key considerations for anticipating tipping point of exponential technology adoption
                   Technology                            Consumer                                 Regulation                                Economics                                  Expected tipping points
               • Connected service               • “Digitally savvy” share of             • Scope and timing of                     • Indirect value capture by
                 content and UX                    population                               enforced connectivity                     OEM
                                                                                            requirements
               • Vehicle system/EE               • “Freemium” segment                                                               • Effective end consumer
                 architecture                      services                               • Scope of data sharing and                 pricing
 Connected                                                                                  privacy restrictions
                                                                                                                                                                             earlier             2030            later
               • Network infrastructure
               • Battery and powertrain          • Premium/early adopter                  • Emission target levels                  • Superior total cost of
                 performance                       segment size                                                                       ownership (TCO) of BEV
                                                                                          • BEV/PHEV incentives                       vs. ICE in relevant number
               • EV manufacturability            • “Rational green” segment
                 and production capacity           size                                   • Diesel/ICE bans/                          of segments
                                                                                            restrictions in cities                  • Additional revenues/                   earlier             2030            later
    Electric   • Charging infrastructure                                                                                              savings from V2G/V2X
                                                                                                                                      charging
               • ADAS capability by use          • Premium/early adopter                  • Scope and timing of                     • Superior TCO vs. non-AV
                 case                              segment size                             enforced ADAS safety                      in first commercial cases
                                                                                            features
               • Data processing                 • Technology openness                                                              • Additional value capture
                                                                                          • Geographic range and                      from riders
               • Driver UI                                                                                                                                                   earlier             2030            later
 Automated                                                                                  quantity of AV test drive/
               • Network and traffic                                                        vehicle approvals
                 infrastructure
               • Smartphone penetration          • Intermodal openness                    • Private car restrictions/               • Superior TCO vs. own
                                                                                            taxes                                     vehicle
               • Access and fleet                • People/traffic density
                 availability                      “Frequent user” segment                • Passenger transport                     • Dynamic pricing for opt.
                                                   size                                     regulation                                use and availability                   earlier             2030            later
    Smart
   Mobility
                               ADAS = Advanced Driver Assistance Systems; EE = Electric/electronics, V2G = Vehicle to grid, TCO = Total cost of ownership
                               Note: A tipping point is defined as the start of exponential growth within a segment of the mobility transformation
                                                                                                                                                            Slow down   Acceleration
                                                                                                                                                             vs. 2020    vs. 2020
Strategy&                      Source: Expert interviews, PwC AutoFacts®, Strategy&                                                                                                                                      8
Total car parc growth strongest in China; electric forecast up
from last year’s prediction; automation notable only after 2025
Total vehicle parc and technology penetration of new car sales (in million, %)

      New LV sales           317                                                                                 332                                                       350
                                      308        294        281                          289         310                                                    302
      (million)                                                              272                                                                250                        34
                                                                                                                                     206                     31
                              15       17         17         17               17          17          17          18                                                                                                  64    60
      Total LV parc                                                                                                                  24          28                                            68         68
      (million)                                                                                                                                                                                                        4    4
                                                                                                                                                                                               5           5
                             100% 100% 100% 100%                            100% 100% 100% 100%                                                88%         100% 100%                                     89%         100% 100%
        Connected                                                                                                                    44%                                                     52%

(eCall, % new LV sales)

                                                            78%                                                 44%                                                        55%                                              45%
            Electric                             50%                                                                                                        33%
                                     27%                                                            19%                                        19%                                                                   10%
                             9%                                               2%         6%                                          6%                                                       1%          5%
(BEV, % new LV sales)

                                                                                                                                                                           34%                                              29%
                                                 20%        29%                                     12%         16%                                                                                                  15%
            Automated                                                                    6%                                                                 11%                                           4%
                              0%      4%                                      3%                                                      0%        1%                                              0%
(L3/L4/L5, % new LV sales)   2021    2025       2030        2035            2021        2025        2030        2035                 2021      2025        2030            2035              2021       2025         2030   2035

Strategy&                      Source: PwC Autofacts®, Strategy&   LV = Light Vehicles = Cars + Light Commercial Vehicles < 6t GVW        BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle          ICE = Internal Combustion Engine                 9
Every second vehicle on EU/US roads will be connected by
2025 – China/JP follow later due to less regulatory pressure
Total vehicle parc and connected car share (in million units, %)

                                                                                                    350
                                                                        332
    317      308                                                 310
                         294                                                                 302
                                  281                     289
                                                    272
   24%                                                                                250
             49%                                    31%                        206                  72%
                                                          52%                         35%    56%
                                                                 70%
                         79%                                            92%    33%
                                 93%
                                                                                                            68     68
                                                                                                           12%    21%           64           60
                                                                                                                               42%          74%

   2021      2025        2030    2035           2021      2025   2030   2035   2021   2025   2030   2035   2021   2025        2030         2035

    Connected Vehicles     Non-Connected Vehicles                                                                 Source: PwC Autofacts®, Strategy&

                     As the number of connected cars increases, more OEMs will be able to offer
                     over-the-air updates (OTA) and other features for greater consumer
Strategy&
                     convenience, however security and data protection remain important concerns.                                                     10
While BEV penetration in EU has accelerated faster than
expected, China leads in total volume; Japan/US much slower
New vehicle sales by powertrain (in million units scaled to 100%)

     15      17     17      17                 17      17       17     18     24       28     31     34     5       5            4            4
                           3%                 2% 2%   6%              1%     6%                     5%     1%      5%                        3%
    9%                                                       1% 19%                 2% 19%                                     10%
    7%      27%
                                                                 1%                          33%
                   50%                                                44%              6%                                                   45%
            9%                                                                                      55%
                                                                                             7%
                           78%                                        1%
                                              97%     92%                    92%                           99%    95%
    84%            16%                                                                                                         89%
                                                                80%                    74%          9%                                      26%
            64%                                                                              60%
                                                                      54%
                   34%                                                                              32%
                           13%                                                                                                              26%
                            6%
   2021     2025   2030    2035               2021    2025     2030   2035   2021     2025   2030   2035   2021   2025        2030         2035

     FCEV    BEV    PHEV    ICE (incl. HEV)                                                                       Source: PwC Autofacts®, Strategy&

                                   The recently announced EU Green Deal seeks a 100%
                                   reduction in CO2 from 2035. Similar announcements
                                   from other countries are expected in the next few years.
Strategy&                                                                                                                                             11
2021 has seen first deployments of L3 and L4 around the
world, but relevant share of >20% expected only after 2030
New vehicle sales by SAE level (in million units scaled to 100%)

     15      17         17          17     17     17     17     18     24     28            31           34           5       5            4            4
            4%           7%         1%           5%             2%            1%                   1%                        4%           6%           1%
                                   14%                  11% 1% 14%                          8% 3% 15%                                                 15%
                        13%                                                                                                               9%
                                   14%                                                                  18%                                           12%

   100%     96%                           97%    94%                  100%    99%                                    100%   96%
                                                        88%    84%                         89%                                           85%
                        80%
                                   71%                                                                  66%                                           71%

   2021     2025    2030           2035   2021   2025   2030   2035   2021   2025         2030         2035          2021   2025        2030         2035

     L0-2   L3     L4         L5                                             SAE = Society of Automotive Engineers          Source: PwC Autofacts®, Strategy&

                    ADAS players will strive in the coming years for selected, feasible automated
                    driving applications in transport/fleets and logistics/industrial areas to recover
                    investments – Germany first to pass national law for automated vehicle use.
Strategy&                                                                                                                                                       12
Preference towards shared mobility still varies across the
major markets; EU/Japan expected to lead by 2035
Market penetration by mobility mode (in ‘000 trillion person-kilometer scaled to %)

    4.9         5.1          5.3        5.4                 5.8       6.1        6.4        6.7     8.8    10.4   12.2   13.8    0.9      0.9          0.9          0.9
    6%                                                      2% 1%     2% 1%      2% 1%      2% 1%                                2% 1%    3% 2%        7%
            2% 10%                                                                                  9% 2% 10% 2% 11% 2% 12% 2%
                      3% 16%           21%                                                                                                                   7% 14%
                          5%                                                                                                                                    11%
                                        7%

    92%                                                    97%        97%       97%        97%                                   97%     94%
                87%                                                                                 89%    88%    87%    86%                          86%
                            79%                                                                                                                                    75%
                                       72%

   2021        2025        2030       2035                2021        2025      2030      2035      2021   2025   2030   2035    2021    2025        2030         2035
    Shared active                  Shared passive                      Private active/passive
    [e.g. car sharing, rental]     [e.g. ride hailing, (robo-)taxi]    [e.g. own vehicle]                                                Source: PwC Autofacts®, Strategy&

                           Despite demand shock for shared mobility due to COVID-19 in 2020/21,
                           long-term outlook remains positive – driven by a growing number of sharing
                           options on multi-mode transport platforms and increasing regulatory pressure
Strategy&
                           for private car ownership, in particular in European and Japanese cities.                                                                         13
This report series is laid out in three volumes 1) CASE drivers,
2) economic opportunities, and 3) capability implications
            Volume 1                                  Volume 2       Volume 3

             Consumer       Technology   Regulation    Economics      Capabilities

                        Connected

                        Automated
                                                       Opportunity      Build-up
                                                        sizing and        and
                        Smart Mobility                 investments     partnering

                        Electric

Strategy&                                                                            14
Image to be updated

Volume

 Strategy&
             1   Assessing global mobility
                 market dynamics
                                                                   15
Digital Auto Report 2021 – Volume 1

                                  Consumer            Technology      Regulation

                                                Connected
Consumers are seeking
convenient and safe                             Electric
mobility – private
transport modes remain                          Automated

important in 2021”
                                                Smart Mobility

Strategy&   Source: Strategy&                                                  16
Consumer – Overview

      Latest consumer attitudes within CASE are reflected in a
      survey of 3,000 respondents in Germany, US and China
      Overview consumer survey
                                                                                                                                              Key results
                      3                                  14
      1. Remaining % up to 100% “not specified”/ “do not wish to                                      3,000
         regions         questions          respondents                                                                                              • Order of preferences of connected services remains
         answer”                                                                                                                                       stable – safety and navigation still most important
                                                                                                                                                     • Willingness to pay for on-demand car functions much
                            n = 1,000                                     n = 1,000                                 n = 1,000                          higher than for connected services

                                                                                                                                                     • PHEVs and BEVs are most preferred type of powertrain
Gender                 51               49                            44               56                          50             50
(%)                                                                                                                                                    only in China; Hydrogen gains popularity in Germany
                                                                                                                                                     • Insufficient driving range and concerns about charging
Age
                                                                                                                                                       options put respondents off driving electric cars
                      33         35           33                     29         26          45                33             33     33
(%)

                      18-34           35-54        55+                                                                                               • Respondents indicate lower trust in the use of
                                                                                                                                                       automated cars compared to last year’s survey
Household                                                                                                                                            • High willingness to pay for automated driving among
                  9    23         27     11 6 6                  10       18     15   10 7 13                16         41        23 12
income                                                                                                                                                 those respondents who do trust the technology
(%, gross                                                                                                                              43
monthly)              10T USD

                                                                                                                                                     • Moderate intention to purchase a new or used car,
Occu-                                                                                                                                                  but car subscription models gaining traction
                  8         55          13 6 10                  4        43          14 6 19                 26             40     29    1
pation
(%)                                            3                                        3                                              11            • Even as immediate COVID-19 risk declines, using one’s
                      Pupil/Trainee/Student          Self-employed             Unemployed                                                              own car remains most popular while costumers are
                      Worker/employee                Civil servant             Without occupation                                                      reluctant to use shared and public transport

      Strategy&                                                                                                                                                                                                17
Consumer – Connected

Order of preferences for connected services remains stable
– safety and navigation still most important
Connected services – By importance for consumers

                                                                                                                                                                        Question: “Which connected
                              69%                                            66%                                                          97%                           service categories are
            Safety
                                                                                                                                                                        particularly important to you?”
                              71%                                           62%                                                          94%
        Navigation

         Vehicle       34%                                              47%                                                            87%
     management

      On-demand             62%                                            57%                                                       81%
     car functions

    Infotainment/       35%                                           38%                                                         68%                               Safety and navigation still
  Enterntainment                                                                                                                                                    most important feature for
                                                                                                                                                                    respondents across all regions.
     Mirror smart-      41%                                            44%                                                        70%
     phone in car
                                                                                                                                                                    With lifestyle and comfort
     Lifestyle and   19%                                                46%                                                            87%                          features, OEMs mainly
           comfort
                                                                                                                                                                    attract Chinese consumers.”

                     2021     2020                              2021         2020                                 2021          2020

Strategy&                     Source: PwC Strategy& consumer research 2020; n=3,000 (1,000 DE, 1,000 US, 1,000 CN); PwC Strategy& consumer research 2021; n=3,000 (1,000 DE, 1,000 US, 1,000 CN)          18
Consumer – Connected

More than 2 in 3 respondents are willing to pay for connected
services; but respective amount varies greatly between regions
Connected services – Average willingness to pay1)

   Ø Willingness to pay (annual)               vs.          Reference prices of other digital & media services

 …for a “full set” of connected                             Music                              Adobe                            Home internet
 services in the vehicle                                    subscription2)                     Photoshop                        with premium/
                                                                                               license                          Sport TV3)

                   $ 180
                                                                 $ 142                             $ 338                          $ 1,300
            at 69% willingness

                                                                                                                                                                         Acceptance of paying at all for
                   $ 148
                                                                 $ 120                             $ 250                          $ 1,200                                connected car services has increased
            at 62% willingness                                                                                                                                           across regions

                                                                                                                                                                         However, there are strong differences
                                                                                                                                                                         in perceived value among consumers
                   $ 524)                                                                                                                                                – Chinese are willing to pay least for it,
                                                                  $ 28                             $ 138                            $ 520                                while consumers in US/Germany are
            at 94% willingness                                                                                                                                           prepared to pay a sum comparable to
                                                                                                                                                                         a music subscription.”
Strategy&                     Source: PwC Strategy& consumer research 2021; n=3,000 (1,000 DE, 1,000 US, 1,000 CN) 1) Local currency conversion to USD                                                             19
                              2) For GER and US “Individual” plan Spotify, for CN Kugou Music VIP membership 3) For GER Sky, for US Xfinity; for CN Tencent   4) PwC Strategy& consumer research 2020: n=1000 CN
Consumer – Connected

     With first on-demand functions becoming available, GER/US
     users rate air conditioning/headlights/engine power highest
     On-demand car functions – Importance for consumers

                 Air condition
                    activation
                                                     67%                                            78%                                  86%                                 Question: “How important
                                                                                                                                                                             would be on-demand car
      Advanced headlight
    functions/performance
                                                  59%                                         60%                                    70%                                     function [...] to you?”
       Extension of battery
                                                 56%                                          59%                                          90%
       range (e.g. +80 km)
                 Seat heating
                                               49%                                       43%                                       56%
                   activation
        Increase of engine
                                             45%                                               64%                                       79%
       power (e.g. +50 hp)

             Traffic jam pilot               43%                                      33%                                                84%
                                                                                                                                                                           Particularly basic functions like
                 Parking pilot         28%                                         23%                                                   81%
                                                                                                                                                                           air conditioner activation
           Automated valet                                                                                                                                                 ranked most important,
                                      24%                                        17%                                                69%
                  parking                                                                                                                                                  whereas sophisticated
                                                                                                                                                                           functions like parking pilot or
Ø annual willingness                                                                                                                                                       automated valet parking do not
to pay1) for car that              $ 675                                       $ 760                                         n/a                                           yet seem very important – at
offers a full set of                                                                                                                                                       least in Germany and the US.”
multiple on-demand               at 60%                                    at 45%
car functions                    willingness                               willingness

     Strategy&                             Source: PwC Strategy& consumer research 2021; n=3,000 (1,000 DE, 1,000 US, 1,000 CN)      1) Local currency conversion to USD                                       20
Consumer – Electric

>50% of US and Germany consumers retain strong preference
for ICE – even young segments; Chinese prefer PHEV/BEV
Preferred type of powertrain/engine by age (%)

                                                                                                                                                                                      Question: “Assuming you would
                     Gasoline        Diesel           Gasoline              Diesel               Gasoline Diesel               Age segment
                                                                                                                                                                                      buy, lease or subscribe to a
                           40        23   Σ 63                 59            10 Σ 69                 21 2 Σ 23                   18-34 years                                          passenger car, what type of engine
          ICE –                                                                                                                                                                       would you like?”
          Gasoline        30    22    Σ 52                    52          6 Σ 58                     22        Σ 22              35-54 years
          & Diesel
                          31    20 Σ 51                       51          4 Σ 55                     17 1 Σ 18                   >55 years

                     PHEV BEV                         PHEV BEV                                            PHEV         BEV

                     11 13 Σ 24                       13 16        Σ 29                                   40          36     Σ 76
                                                                                                                                                                                 US consumers retain a strong
          PHEV                                                                                                                                                                   preference for ICE (55-69%) followed
                     16 15 Σ 31                          18   19     Σ 37                              34             41     Σ 75
          & BEV                                                                                                                                                                  by Germany (51-63%), while Chinese
                     15 11 Σ 26                          23     18    Σ 41                             32             47      Σ 79                                               clearly prefer BEV/PHEV (75-79%).
                                                                                                                                                                                 Despite the common image of being a
                                                                                                                                                                                 climate-aware generation, younger
                     11                              2                                          1                                                                                segments in Germany and US have
–    +
                                                                                                                                                                                 clear preference for ICE.
H2   O2
          Hydrogen 17                                3                                           3
                                                                                                                                                                                 Hydrogen gains popularity in
                      21                             4                                           3                                                                               Germany – likely due to increasing
                                                                                                                                                                                 press coverage and public debate.”
Strategy&                                 Source: PwC Strategy& consumer research 2021; n=3,000 (1,000 DE, 1,000 US, 1,000 CN)                 Percentages may not total 100% due to rounding                              21
Consumer – Electric

Range anxiety and charging options are major obstacles to buy
an electric car – price is less of an issue, in particular in China
Deterring factors using an electric car

                                                                                                                                                                              Question: “What is holding you
                                                                                                                                                                              back from choosing a car with an
                                                                                                                                                                              electric powertrain?”
                                                                                                                               78%
                                                                                                                   73%
  66%
            60%       58%                              59%
                                                                               56%
                                                                   53%

                                                                                                                                                       36%
                                                                                                                                           28%
                                                                                           25%

                                13%                                                                                                                                         In Germany and the US, insufficient
                                                                                                                                                                            driving range with one battery charge
                                                                                                                                                                            is the biggest deterrent, whereas
                                                                                                                                                                            Chinese respondents raise concerns
                                                                                                                                                                            about whether there is sufficient
                                                                                                                                                                            charging network coverage.”

        Insufficient driving range        Concerned about sufficient                     Relatively high                 Limited choice and
        with one battery charge           charging options/stations                      purchase price                  availability of cars

Strategy&                            Source: PwC Strategy& consumer research 2021; n=1,897 (645 DE, 677 US, 575 CN) - respondents who are not interested in electric cars                                           22
Consumer – Automated vehicles

 Trust in automated cars is not growing – and has even
 declined in US and Germany from last year
 Automated driving – Consumer attitudes and usage of time gained
Question: Would you personally use a fully
autonomous car?                                                                                                                                                                               62%          62%
                                                                                                                                                       55%                                                              57%
                                                                                                    52%           51%
would         14%               18%                                                                                                                                   45%
use AV       (36%)             (38%)
                                                                      Top 3                                                     39%                                            39%
                                                  39%                 activities to
would use
AV only at    24%
                                                 (59%)                use within
                                18%
low speed/   (28%)             (26%)
                                                                      time gained
parking                                                               (% of
                                                                      respondents)

                                                                                                 Media and Relaxation Work and                     Relaxation Media and Work and           Relaxation Media and          Social
                                                                                                    enter-       and      productivity                 and         enter-   productivity       and         enter-      exchange
                                                                                                  tainment    recovery (e.g. email)                 recovery     tainment (e.g. email)      recovery     tainment     (e.g. video
                                                  48%                                            (e.g. video (e.g. sleep)                          (e.g. sleep) (e.g. video                (e.g. sleep) (e.g. video    conferen-
would                           64%              (32%)                                           streaming)                                                     streaming)                              streaming)       cing)
              62%
not use                        (36%)
             (36%)
AV

                                                 14%                                                                           In general, willingness to use fully automated cars has
                                                 (9%)
                                                                                                                               declined, especially in Germany and the US. Trust in automated
                                                                                                                               driving is seen as susceptible to change, and consumer
                                                                                                                               attitudes might fluctuate rapidly as critical headlines emerge,
             (xx %) = Previous year's values
                                                                                                                               e.g. following accidents and cybersecurity threats.”
                                    Source: PwC Strategy& consumer research 2020; n=3,000 (1,000 DE, 1,000 US, 1,000 CN);
 Strategy&                          PwC Strategy& consumer research 2021; 1st question n=3,000 (1,000 DE, 1,000 US, 1,000 CN); 2nd question n=1604 (383 DE; 356 US, 865 CN)                                                     23
Consumer – Automated vehicles

  High willingness to pay for automated driving experience
  among respondents who would use a fully automated vehicle
  Automated driving – Willingness to pay

Question: “When using car
sharing or ride hailing, what would                                                   Premium                                                       Premium
be the extra price you would be
ready to pay to get an autonomous
                                                                           10              3€                                           10              4       $                                    n/a
                                                                       Base price                                                   Base price
car driving you around?”1)

                                                                  84%                                                         79%                                                             98%
                                                                  willingness                                                 willingness                                                     willingness
                                                          USD
                                                            0                   16%                                                                 21%                                        2%
                                                         7.1T        3%                                                           4%                                                           3%

                            Source: PwC Strategy& consumer research 2021; 1st question n=198 (57 DE, 141 US) , 2nd question n=1604 (383 DE; 356 US; 865 CN) respondents who would use an AV
  Strategy&                 1) Extra-price you to pay for a 5 km/ 3 miles ride (knowing the amount for a traditional car is 10 EUR/ 10 USD/ 40 CNY)                                                                    24
Consumer – Smart Mobility

More than 40% of respondents want to purchase a new or used
car in next 1-2 years; subscription models attracting attention
Likelihood to buy/lease/subscribe to a car

                                                                                                                                                             Question: “How likely might you or
                                                                                                                                                             your household purchase, lease, or
                                                                                                                                                             subscribe to a passenger car in the
                                     44%                                      44%                                                  63%                       next one to two years?”
      Purchase of
        a new car

                                       47%                                  41%                                       40%
 Purchase/ lease
   of a used car

                                                                                                                                                           As the economic impact of COVID-19
            Lease of a     20%                                 15%                                                 31%                                     appears to be more predictable in
              new car                                                                                                                                      Germany, the intention to get a car grew
                                                                                                                                                           in that country compared to last year’s
                                                                                                                                                           survey.
     Subscription
         of a car         14%                                  15%                                                       44%
                                                                                                                                                           Subscription is gaining in popularity –
                                                                                                                                                           in China, it is seen as more attractive than
                                                                                                                                                           leasing; in US it is on a par with leasing,
     Likely/very likely                                                                                                                                    and in Germany its popularity is clearly
                                                                                                                                                           growing (14% vs. 8% last year).”
Strategy&                   Source: PwC Strategy& consumer research 2021; n=3,000 (1,000 DE, 1,000 US, 1,000 CN)   Difference to 100%: no/low likelihood                                           25
Consumer – Smart Mobility

Even as immediate COVID-19 risks decline, own car remains
popular as people shy away from shared and public transport
Mobility pattern after COVID-19 restrictions (%)

                                                                                                                                                                                             Question: “COVID-19 has temporarily
                                                                                                                                                                                             changed our mobility behavior in many
                                                                                                                                                                                             aspects. How do you plan to use modes
                    Own
                    bike
                               19          49                  31                 8             39          53                        26              34               41                    […] of transport once we have left the
                                                                                                                                                                                             pandemic behind us?”
                 By foot       20               67                  12            9              49             43                     32                  41            27

                Own car         27               64                  9                31              64             5                      59                    29          12

                  Public
                           7         40                   53                      3    33              64                        16              37                47
               transport
                                                                                                                                                                                         Own car is still seen as the safest and
                   Shared
                    micro-                                                                                                                                                               most convenient means of
                           3 14                  83                               3   22              76                          19             35                 47
                  mobility                                                                                                                                                               transportation – and therefore has the
            (e.g. scooter)
                                                                                                                                                                                         highest increase in demand, in particular
                    Car-
                 sharing
                           5    18                   77                       2            37              61                    11         31                    59                     in China.

                   Taxi,
                           4    20                   76                           3    32              66                        15              38                46
                                                                                                                                                                                         Across all regions, consumers plan
                 Uber, …
                                                                                                                                                                                         reduced use of shared modes as well
                                                                                                                                                                                         as taxi and ride-hailing – even after
                                More            Same            Less/not at all                                                                                                          the pandemic.”

Strategy&                                 Source: PwC Strategy& consumer research 2021; n=3,000 (1,000 DE, 1,000 US, 1,000 CN)                        Percentage may not total 100% due to rounding                              26
Consumer – Smart Mobility

Respondents want to contribute to CO2 reduction – mainly by
switching to an electric car or more walking/cycling (in GER)
Top-3 contributions to CO2 reduction
                                                                                                                                Switch to an
                                                                                                                                electric car
                  Short distances more                                                                                                               Question: “What major personal
                  often on foot/ by bicycle                                                                  Short distances                         changes would you like to do to
                                                                                                             more often on
                                                                                                                                  61%                contribute to a reduction in CO2
Delete                                                                                                       foot/ by bicycle                        emissions?”
completely of           45%                                         Switch to an
                                                                    electric car
short-haul
flights     26%                                                                                                     60%
                                                               30%
                       18%                                                                                                             49%
                                                                              22% Short distances
                                                                                      more often on foot/
                       Switch to an                                                   by bicycle                                  Use public
                       electric car                           12%                                                                 transport more
                                                    Use public                                                                    frequently
                                                    transport more
                                                                                                                                                   High willingness to contribute to
                                                    frequently                                                                                     CO2 reduction, esp. in China (97%)
       Do
                                                                                                                                                   and in Germany (70%) whereas
                                                                                                                                3%
  nothing                                                                                                                                          US respondents are less willing
            30%                                                                                                                                    (52%).
                                                               48%
                                                                                      52%
                                                                                                                                                   Main contributions will be short
                          70%                                                                                                                      distances more often on foot/by
                                Change                                                                                           97%               bicycle, or switching to an
                                behavior
                                                                                                                                                   electric car.”

Strategy&                         Source: PwC Strategy& consumer research 2021; n=3,000 (1,000 DE, 1,000 US, 1,000 CN)                                                                  27
Consumer – Smart Mobility

Price and availability are by far the top drivers for increasing
the use of sustainable transport
Factors encouraging sustainable transportation modes

                                                                                                                                                       Question: “What would encourage
                                                                                                                                                       you to use sustainable transportation
                                                                                                                                                       (e.g. bike sharing, car sharing, public
    55%                                                                                                                      63%                       transportation) more frequently?”
                                                          35%                                                       59%

                                                                  27%                                                                    44%
                                                                                                                                               39%
                                                                                                                                   37%

            23%                                                          17% 16%
                  20%
                           17%                                                                                                                       In Germany and the US, cheaper
                                                                                          8%                                                         prices are most likely to encourage
                                 6%                                                                                                                  respondents to use sustainable
                                                                                                                                                     transportation.

                                                                                                                                                     Chinese respondents, meanwhile,
     Cheaper price           Incentives by the employer                       Family offers
                             (e.g. job bike, car sharing                      (e.g. 4 bikes for the price of 2, ...)
                                                                                                                                                     focus on better availability.”
                             benefit package, ...)
     Better availability     User-friendly access
     (e.g. more bikes)       (e.g. cashless payment via app, ...)

Strategy&                             Source: PwC Strategy& consumer research 2021; n=3,000 (1,000 DE, 1,000 US, 1,000 CN)                                                                   28
Consumer – Connected, Electric, Automated, Smart Mobility Japan

Contrast: Japanese consumers display varied preferences –
skeptical towards BEV, but open to AV and car subscriptions
Key highlights from Japanese consumer survey
            Connected                                                Electric                                                               Automated vehicles                                  Smart Mobility
            “How important would be on-                              “[…] what type of engine would                                         “Would you personally use a fully                   “How likely might you purchase,
            demand car function [...] to you?”                       you like?”                                                             autonomous vehicle?”                                lease, or subscribe to a car?”

                                                                                                Gasoline            Diesel
       Extension of battery
       range (e.g. +80 km)                  76%                           ICE –                    51               9 Σ 60                                                                         Purchase of
                                                                          Gasoline                                                           would          31%                                                               29%
       Advanced headlight                                                                  31            7 Σ 38                                                                                      a new car
    functions/performance                   76%                           & Diesel                                                          use AV         (26%)
                                                                                          23        4 Σ 27
              Traffic jam pilot          68%                                             PHEV BEV                                                                                            Purchase / leasing
                                                                                                                                                                                                  of a used car
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  35%
                 Air condition
                                         67%                                             19        14     Σ 33                           would use
                    activation
                                                                          PHEV                 40             14     Σ 54               AV only at          41%
        Increase of engine                                                and BEV                                                       low speed/         (37%)
                                         66%
       power (e.g. +50 hp)                                                                    35              26       Σ 61                parking                                                 Leasing of a
                                                                                                                                                                                                      new car
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          22%
             Automated valet
                    parking           49%
                                                                                     3              18-34 years
                 Parking pilot       47%                                                                                                     would                 (xx %) =
                                                                                     1               35-54 years                                            28%                                   Subscription
                                                                 –    +
                                                                          Hydro-                                                            not use                Previous                                               21%
                Seat heating
                                                                H2   O2
                                                                                                                                                 AV        (37%)                                      of a car
                                     43%                                  gen        2                  >55 years                                                  year's values
                  activation

     Different order of preferences                            Gasoline still most preferred                                         In contrast to other countries,                         Lower intention to purchase/
     of on-demand car functions in                             type of engine among youngest                                         positive development compared                           lease new/used car than in other
     Japan from other countries –                              respondents. However, esp.                                            with previous year – Japanese                           countries. However, subscription
     extension of battery range is rated                       PHEV most popular among                                               respondents gaining trust in AVs                        is gaining interest when
     most highly, along with advanced                          35-54 and 55+ year old                                                                                                        compared to last year´s survey
     headlight functions/performance                           respondents                                                                                                                   (15%)

Strategy&                               Source: PwC Strategy& consumer research 2021; n=1,000 JPN                             BEV = Battery Electric Vehicles      AV = Automated Vehicles                                          29
Digital Auto Report 2021 – Volume 1

                                  Consumer            Technology      Regulation

Technology progresses fast                      Connected
– software-defined vehicle
architecture and chip                           Electric
shortage most pressing
topic in 2021”                                  Automated

                                                Smart Mobility

Strategy&   Source: Strategy&                                                  30
Technology – Connected

Enabling connected services will become the make-or-break
factor for OEMs in the coming years
Connected services
                                                                                                                                                          Still in its infancy
       Data/Insights Services                                                                                            5th Screen Services

 Vehicle optimization                                                                                                                                     • Connected car services have the
                                                                                                                  Value added services                      potential to transform the driving
        Cloud-supported vehicle analytics                                                                                                                   experience and to unlock new
                                                                                                                       Access to value-added services
        and optimization of configurations                                                                                                                  revenues streams for OEMs
                                                                                                                       and revenues
                                                    Visibility                                                                                            • After initial hype, however, OEMs
             Vehicle-Centric                                                             Today                             Beyond Vehicle                   have lessened their focus on
            Connected Services                                                                                                Services                      connected services. Available vehicle
                                                                                                                                                            functionality is largely in its infancy
 Automated driving                                                                                                Fleet management
                                                                                                                                                          • New entrants are likely to enter the
            Cloud-supported situation                                                                                  Support of fleet management and      automotive market and differentiate
            analytics and driving assistance                                                                           tracking services                    themselves with new cloud-based
                                                                                                                                                            services and an ability to adapt
 Secure software update                                                                                           Navigation and traffic information
                                                                                                                                                            vehicle software on demand

        Over-the-air update to elevate
                                                                 2015                  2020                Time         Access to up-to-date navigation   • First movers will set the standard for
        functionality and fix issues                                                                                    and traffic information             future connected car technology and
                                                                                                                                                            revenue models

 Alarming and assistance                                                                                          Drive efficiency and safety             • Traditional OEMs need to reconsider
                                                                  Vehicle Features as a Service                                                             strengthening their commitment so
        Automatic notification in case of                                                                              Information exchange between         that they can transform their vehicle
        severe accidents or vehicle issues                   Feature activation                                        road users and infrastructure        and cloud platforms swiftly, and
                                                                        Dynamic activation/ deactivation                                                    provide the foundation and scale for
                                                                        of paid add-on services                                                             future growth

Strategy&                               Source: Strategy&                                                                                                                                          31
Technology – Connected

For connected services, OEMs are currently rethinking their
build vs. buy strategy on key technology components
Connected service components of a software-defined vehicle
              Enabler                            Hardware                                 Software                               Data / Integration               Content/Service               Sales and CRM

                                                                                                            Plan – Build – Ship – Update – Sunset

 Key value                                        Hardware and electronics                  Vehicle OS and                        Automotive Security and                                       Offering bundling and
 blocks       Cloud infrastructure                                                                                                                                Vehicle services and apps
                                                  architecture                              Automotive cloud platform             Compliance                                                    pricing

              Communication                       Integrated Circuits and                   Vehicle OS and                        Data Analytics, Privacy         Cloud/hybrid services incl.   User identification and
              technology (5G, V2x)                Semiconductors                            Automotive cloud platform             and Ethics                      vehicle health services       personalization

              Terrestrial and satellite           I/O devices (e.g., sensors,               Secure Over-the-Air                   User interface and              3rd party content and
                                                                                                                                                                                                Customer support
              communication networks              displays)                                 Update management                     controls                        services

Current       •   Regional regulations           •   Transformation of E/E                 •   Software capabilities              •   System test capabilities    •   Data ownership            •   Customer access/
              •   Cybersecurity concerns             architecture                          •   Development processes              •   Decision on closed vs.      •   Revenue models                identification
limitations
              •   MNO costs                      •   Semiconductor                         •   Cybersecurity                          open systems                                              •   Data privacy
                                                     availability                              regulations                        •   Certifications

 Current      •   Buy into cellular and          •   Development of own/                   •   Development of own                 •   Increase in automated       •   Expansion of cross-       •   Centralization of sales
 develop-         satellite networks                 tailored semiconductors                   software stacks                        test and compliance             industry and technology       processes
              •   Build-up of cloud/edge         •   Modular and                           •   Build-up of own app                    processes                       alliances                 •   Cross financing/
 ments            infrastructures                    expandable hardware                       stores                             •   Build-up of own data/                                         subscription contracts
                                                     architectures                                                                    analytics platforms

                               Source: Strategy&
Strategy&                      V2x: Vehicle-to-everything   I/O: Input/ Output   E/E: Electric/Electronic    HW: Hardware   SW: Software   Crucial value blocks                                                               32
Technology – Electric

Technology progress in e-mobility must be evaluated in the
context of tech trends across various alternative powertrains
Alternative powertrain developments
                                                                                                                                                                                             –   +
                           ICE                                                       PHEV                                                    BEV                                            H2   O2   FCEV

  Internal combustion engine                                     Electric drivetrain (electric motor, inverter, transmission)                                                       Fuel cell system
                                                                 Efficiency improvement                                                           Cost reductions
   Electrification                                                                                                                                                                  Stack
            Recuperation and boost as standard                      Silicon carbide power semi-          Bar windings and increased notch              Increased integration of
                                                                    conductor switches (inverter)        filling degree in electric motor                                               Increase of power density
            features with 12V (budget) or 48V                                                                                                          inverter and motor
                                                                                                                                                                                        Optimization of catalyst
            Increased electrification of auxiliaries
                                                                                                                                                                                        compositions (reduction of Pt)
            (water/oil pumps, cam phaser, etc.)                  High voltage system and architecture                                                                                   and nano-scale microstructure
            P2 topology avoiding drag torque                     Architecture                                                                     Auxiliaries                           Optimization of bipolar plate
                                                                                                                                                                                        coatings
   Reduction of friction losses                                     Integration of power-units           Top models up to 800 V,                       Increasing commoditization
                                                                    (OBC, DCDC, DC charger)              standard in volume 400 V                      of electrified auxiliaries
        Coatings and microstructural
        modifications on cylinder                                                                                                                                                    Balance of plants
        Optimization of crankshaft bearings                      HV battery system                                                                                                       Stack internal humidification
        Ball bearings for turbocharger                                                                                                                                                   and simplified water mgmt.
                                                                 System design                                            Cell innovation
                                                                    Structural integration of       System design            Increased cell capacity through larger cells
   Combustion/emission optimization                                 housing into vehicle body       incl. recyclability                                                             Tank
                                                                                                                             Cathode cost reduction by minimization of cobalt
        Increasing injection pressures                              (cell-to-vehicle)                                                                                                    Optimization of fiber winding
                                                                                                                             content and cobalt-free cells (e.g. iron-phosphate)
        Variability in valve trains                                                                                                                                                      layout and process
                                                                                                                             Dry (solvent-free) processing of electrode coatings
        Particle filters for most powertrains                                                                                                                                            Mixed materials to reduce
                                                                                                                             Increased anode energy density via silicon
        including DI gasolines                                                                                                                                                           costs
                                                                                                                             Intrinsic safe cells by application of solid state
        Variable compression ratio through                                                                                                                                               Compressed H2 as standard
        variable connection rod                                                                                              electrolytes (polymers, inorganics, blends)                 for passenger vehicles

Strategy&                                    Source: Strategy&                                                                                                                                                           33
Technology – Electric

By the end of the decade, BEVs will be the most economic
powertrain solution for almost all segments
Electric powertrain operating cost break-even timeline (vs. ICE)

   Vehicle                               Viable                                                                                        Break-
  segment          Range               powertrains                            Evolution of TCO leader                                   even

                                                         –   +
                                                                     2020                        2025                   2030
                            150                      H       O
                 Low        km
                                                     2       2                                                                            2019

                            300
                                                     –       +                                                                                                                There is no fixed point in
     A/B          Mid       km
                                                     H
                                                     2
                                                             O
                                                             2
                                                                                                                                          2025
    Budget                  600
                                                                                                                                                                              time when battery
      70 kW      Long       km
                                                                                                                                          2035
                                                                                                                                                                              electric vehicles will
                  Mid
                            300
                            km
                                                     H
                                                     2
                                                         –   +
                                                             O
                                                             2                                                                            2022                                offer an operating cost
     C/D         Long
                            600                      –
                                                     H
                                                             +
                                                             O                                                                            2027                                advantage over internal
                            km                       2       2

    Volume
      100 kW   Extra-long
                            800
                                                                                                                                          2032
                                                                                                                                                                              combustion engines – it
                            km
                                                                                                                                                                              depends on factors such
                                                         –

                                                                                                                                                                              as the vehicle segment
                                                             +
                            300                      H       O
                  Mid       km
                                                     2       2                                                                            2018

      E/F        Long
                            600
                            km
                                                     –
                                                     H
                                                     2
                                                             +
                                                             O
                                                             2
                                                                                                                                          2022                                and range"
   Premium                  800
                                                     –       +

      250 kW   Extra-long                            H       O
                                                                                                                                          2028
                            km                       2       2

                                  Main assumptions: electricity and fuel prices as for Germany 2020; H2 price 5€/kg; PHEV driving modes 40% EV mode/60% ICE mode; FCEV driving modes 40% EV mode/60% FC mode
Strategy&                         One-time buying incentives not considered                       Source: Strategy&                                                                                            34
Technology – Automated

Hardware, software & infrastructure of automated driving are
improving, but still not reached level necessary for scaling up
Automated driving technology developments
                                                                                                                                          Current status and limitations
                                           Emergency
                                             vehicle
                                           recognition                                                                                    • Existing radar and camera technology will be
                                                                                                                                            improved to achieve better resolution. LiDAR
                                                                                                                                            technology has still not reached the cost point
                                                                                                                                          • The appropriate sensor setting for future Level
                             Blind           Surround                                                                                       3/4 vehicles has not yet been finally defined.
                             spot              view                                                                                         Ongoing discussions between camera-only
                                                                                Lane assist
                                                                                                                            Hardware        solution and other solutions
            Rear collision                                                                                                 e.g. sensors
            warning
                                                                                                                                          • New ADAS computers based on low power tech
                                                                                               Emergency     Collision                      are under development
                                         Driver                       Cross      Topo-         braking       avoidance
            Environment      Park                           Park                                                                          • Different driver assistant systems mandatory
                                        monitoring                    traffic    graphy
            mapping          assist                         assist    alert      detection     Environment   Pedestrian                     beginning 2022 in EU
                                                                                               Mapping       detection

                                                                                Traffic sign                                              • Test and validation not yet mature
                                                                                recognition                                               • Motion prediction still not completely solved
                             Rear            Surround                                                                                     • Very large amounts of test data complicate
                             view              view                                                                         Software        traditional analytics
                                                                                                                           e.g. smart
                                                                                                                           data usage

                                                                                                                                         • So far, there are only a few test tracks that are
                                                                                                                                           fully developed for automated driving
                                                                                                                                         • Expansion of 4G by 2022 for motorways in GER
                                                                                                                                           as basis for 5G
    Ultrasound      Short-/medium-range radar            Camera
    LIDAR           Long-range radar                     Microphone
                                                                                                                          Infrastructure • For the time being only pseudo 5G based on 4G
                                                                                                                              e.g. 5G      (non stand-alone)

Strategy&                        Source: Strategy&                                                                                                                                          35
Technology – Automated

Once reaching maturity at L3 with broad use case deployment,
rapid breakthrough of L4 technologies expected soon after
Automated driving SAE levels and AD function mapping

                                                                                                                        Environment      Fallback for
                                                                                                        Vehicle        monitoring and     dynamic        System
             SAE level          Narrative definition                                                    control        user interface    driving task   capability    Exemplary AD functionalities

                                                             …under all environmental and                                                                             • Universal pilot (full autonomy)
    HIGH
                 Full driving                                road conditions that can be                                                                All driving   • Interactive pilot driving (control via touch/gesture UI)
             5   automation                                  managed by a human driver
                                                             (not ODD specific
                                                                                                                                                         modes        • Robo-taxi and automated people-mover (all
                                                                                                                                                                        conditions)
                                                                                                                            System
                                The system performs          …even if a human driver does                                                  System                     • Urban/rural/highway pilot with multi-lane change
                                                                                                                                                          Most
                 High driving   all aspects of               not respond appropriately to a                                                                           • Robo-taxi and automated people-mover
             4   automation     dynamic driving
                                (driving-mode
                                                             request to intervene (ODD
                                                             specific)
                                                                                                                                                         driving
                                                                                                                                                         modes
                                                                                                                                                                      • Urban last-mile delivery
                                                                                                                                                                      • Automated valet parking
                                                                                                                        Alternative or
                                specific)…
                                                             …expecting the human driver                System          conventional                                  • Urban/rural/highway assistant (e.g. hands-off traffic
                 Conditional                                                                                            user interface
                                                             to respond appropriately to an                                                                             jam, intersection movement, single lane change)
             3   driving
                 automation
                                                             intervention request (ODD
                                                             specific)
                                                                                                                                                                      • Parking chauffeur
                                                                                                                                                                      • Assisted fleet operations (on-site, off-highway)
                                                             …executes both steering and
AUTOMATION       Partial                                     acceleration/deceleration                                                                                • Adaptive cruise control
             d   Driving
                 automation     The human driver
                                                             (driving-mode specific and
                                                             depending on ODD)…
                                                                                                                                                          Some
                                                                                                                                                         driving
                                                                                                                                                                      • Remote/key parking assistant
                                                                                                                                                                      • Lane change assistant
                                                                                                                                                         modes
                                performs remaining                                                                          Human          Human
                                aspects of dynamic
                                driving, while the           …executes either steering or                                                                             •   Adaptive cruise control
                 Driver         system…                      acceleration/deceleration                                                                                •   Driver assisted parking assistant
             1   assistance                                  (driving-mode specific and
                                                             depending on ODD)
                                                                                                      Human and
                                                                                                       System
                                                                                                                        Conventional                                  •
                                                                                                                                                                      •
                                                                                                                                                                          Lane keeping assistant (system steers)
                                                                                                                                                                          Blind spot monitoring rear/side (system steers)
                                                                                                                        user interface

                                The human driver performs all aspects of dynamic
                 No driving                                                                                                                                           • Pre-/forward- collision braking
    LOW      0   automation
                                driving, potentially “enhanced” by warning or intervention
                                systems                                                                  Human
                                                                                                                                                           n/a
                                                                                                                                                                      • Front/rear cross-traffic alert with braking

Strategy&                         Source: “SAE International Standard J3016”, SAE; Strategy&   ODD = Operational design domain                                                                                                     36
Technology – Automated

Commercially viable automated driving applications at L3 and
beyond will start becoming available for specific use cases first
Automated driving timeline of commercial road availability
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Current developments
People mover               (Sub-)Urban                                                                      30                                             50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               • ADAS1) technologies require
                                                                                                                  Restricted                                        Restricted
                                                                                                                    Areas                                             Areas

Pre-defined route(s)
7-12 seats                                                                                                                                                                                                                       higher development cost
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 and efforts than anticipated
Last mile logistics
Pre-defined route(s)               Urban                                      20                            40                                                                                                                 • ADAS sensors still far
                                                                                     Restricted                     Restricted
                                                                                       Areas                          Areas

e.g., parcel station
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 above target cost, due to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 small production volumes
                            (Sub-)Urban                                                                                          60   Restricted

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 and sensor fusion/
                                                                                                                                        Areas

Robo-taxi
No defined routes                                                                                                              60     Restricted
                                                                                                                                        Areas                                                                                    recognition challenges
2-6 seats                           Rural
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               • Regulation is advancing,
                                   Urban                    50                                                                                            50    Restricted
                                                                                                                                                                  Areas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 with UN/ECE technical
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 framework being finalized
Owned vehicle                       Rural                  100                                                                                           100    Restricted
                                                                                                                                                                  Areas                                                          and e.g. German law for
No defined routes
2-5 seats                                                                                                                                                                                                                        automated and autonomous
                                Highway                    130                      60                        130                                        130
                                                                                                                                                                                 Restricted
                                                                                                                                                                                   Areas

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 driving already in place
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               • First L3 vehicle is already
                                                             2021                2023                2025                         2027                         2029                      2031   2033           2035              approved up to 60 km/h
Commercial availability (beyond pilot projects)2)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 according to UNECE ALKS.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Further vehicles expected
            Level 2+           Level 4      xx   Max. speed
                                                                           Construction
                                                                           area capable
                                                                                                     Closed compounds                              Urban:     Traffic situations with many traffic interactions and low speeds   for 2021/22
                                                                                                                                                   Sub-Urban: Traffic situations with moderate traffic interactions and moderate speeds
            Level 3            Level 5                                     Automated
                                                 Area restriction                                    Vehicle follows user                          Rural:     Traffic situations with few traffic interactions and higher speeds
                                                                           lane changes

                                          1) ADAS = Advanced Driver Assistance Systems
Strategy&                                 2) Indicating start of availability. Tipping points of significant adoption expected significantly later in certain fields                              Source: Strategy&                                          37
Technology – Smart mobility

Individual mobility divides into private vs. shared and active
vs. passive driving modes, each with increasing automation
Private/shared mobility modes with selected automated driving use cases
                                                   PRIVATE 1) Personally-owned vehicle                                                                                    SHARED 2) Collective vehicle or ride
                              AUTONOMATION LEVEL

                                                    L5                                          Universal pilot                                                             L5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Automated
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Robotaxi
                                                                          Urban/rural/                                     Automated                                                                                                               people mover
                                                    L4                                                                                                                      L4
                                                                         highway pilot                                    valet parking
PASSIVE3)
"I am a passenger”                                                Urban/rural/highway                                  Parking assistant                                                     Urban/rural/highway
                                                    L3                                                                                                                      L3
                                                               assistant (for private driver)                          (for private driver)                                               assistant (for public driver)

                                                    L0-2                                    Private/family driver                                                           L0-2                                  Taxi, ride hailing/pooling
                              AUTONOMATION LEVEL

                                                    L5                                                                                                                      L5
                                                                                    Interactive pilot driving                                                                                                  Interactive pilot driving
                                                                          (vehicle control via touch/gesture UI “for fun”)                                                                           (vehicle control via touch/gesture UI “for fun”)
                                                    L4                                                                                                                      L4

ACTIVE4)
"I am the driver”                                                  Urban/rural/highway                                                                                                        Urban/rural/highway                          Assisted fleet operations
                                                    L3                                                         Parking/pick-up assistant                                    L3
                                                                        assistant                                                                                                                  assistant                                            (on operator site)

                                                    L0-2                                            Self drive                                                              L0-2                            Car sharing, rental, subscription
Differentiating AD use case
 Traditional base use case

                                                     1) Includes self-owned, family-owned, credit-financed, long-term leased, personal company car 2) Includes rental, subscription (up to 1 year), ride-hailing, ride-sharing, car sharing, pool car, car club
                                                     3) “Passenger” determines mobility purpose / destination and selects means of transport with certain expected time of arrival; “mobility system” determines detailed routing and actual time/place of arrival
                                                     4) “Driver” determines mobility purpose / target and selects means of transport with certain arrival time; “driver” determines detailed routing and actual time / place of arrival through User Interface (UI)
Strategy&                                            Source: PwC Autofacts®, Strategy&                                                                                                                                                                                       38
Technology – Smart mobility

Car sharing/subscription platforms rely on micro-mobility
technology stacks when migrating towards electric car fleets
Smart mobility technology platform building blocks – Example of e-vehicle fleet provider

Key benefits                             Technical platform capabilities                                                                                                                      Current developments
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Providing a seamless electric vehicle

                                                                                                                                       Partner integration (API) and external data sourcing
            Intuitive digital                                           User interface and apps                                                                                                 sharing/subscription experience,
            user experience                                           (drivers, fleet operators, partners)
                                                                                                                                                                                                requires a holistic technology
                                                                                                                                                                                                architecture and IT platform approach
                                                                         Customer operations                                                                                                    covering functionalities on five levels
            Easy electric                        Onboarding                     Charging and                       Incident
                                             (identity, access, …)              maintenance                      management                                                                   • The IT platforms need to address very
            vehicle access
                                                                                                                                                                                                different performance requirements
                                                     Calculation and contracting                     Billing and payment
                                                                                                                                                                                                (e.g. operating telematics/fleet
                                                                                                                                                                                                monitoring vs. managing back-end
                                                                     Asset and fleet management                                                                                                 billing processes)
            High vehicle
            availability                    Vehicle condition                  Asset lifecycle                 Maintenance and
                                           monitoring/telematics                management                    repair management                                                               • To enable fast scale-up in multiple cities,
                                                                                                                                                                                                API/open standards/interfaces are
            Reliable &                                           Charging and battery management                                                                                                key to swift onboarding of external
            fast charging                      Energy demand                    Charge point                  Battery replacement                                                               partners and adoption of local
                                                 prediction                     management                       and recycling
                                                                                                                                                                                                (regulatory) requirements
            Efficient business
                                                                     Internal Business Operations                                                                                             • Cloud-based systems ensure high
            operations                     Customer acquisition/          Finance and controlling,           IT mgmt (IoT, data and                                                             reliability/scale-up flexibility, while
                                                marketing                   risk and legal, HR, ..             analytics, cyber, ..)                                                            supporting efficient process execution

Strategy&                        Source: Strategy&                                                                                                                                                                                        39
Digital Auto Report 2021 – Volume 1

                                  Consumer            Technology      Regulation

Regulation is aiming to                         Connected
accelerate the mobility
transformation – but                            Electric
various regions have
followed very different                         Automated

approaches”
                                                Smart Mobility

Strategy&   Source: Strategy&                                                  40
Regulation

   China and EU leads regulatory discussions on CASE trends –
   EV penetration and AV enablement are leading focus areas
   Latest regulatory initiatives and discussions (excerpt)
                                                     USA                                                                                                                               GLOBAL
AUTOMATED:
  AUTOMATED         U.S. Department of Transportation released                                                                                                                CONNECTED International regulation on cybersecurity and
                                                                                                                                                                             Connected:
                                                                                                                                                                             software updates as well as their respective management systems
Automated Vehicles Comprehensive Plan laying out strategy
                                                                                                                                                                             enacted by UNECE (01/2021)
for safe integration of Automated Driving Systems (01/2021)
                                                                                                                                                                              AUTOMATED
                                                                                                                                                                             Connected:         UNECE establishing uniform provisions
  AUTOMATED        NHTSA issued a Standing General Order to                                                                                                                  concerning approval of vehicles with regard to Automated
report crashes of L2-L5 vehicles to identify safety issues                                                                                                                   Lane Keeping Systems (ALKS) (03/2021)
emerging from automated vehicles (06/2021)

  ELECTRIC Several measures from Biden administration to                                                                                                                      AUTOMATED          Release of new ISO 22737 defining minimum
                                                                                                                                                                            requirements & test procedures for low-speed autonomous driving
accelerate deployment of EV charging infrastructure
                                                                                                                                                                            (LSAD) systems (designed to operate L4 automation) (07/2021)
(04/2021)
                                                                                                                                                                                      Recently introduced regulations at UN level with positive
       Lagging behind other regions; New impulses from
                                                                                                                                                                                      impact on CASE adoption, further steps required
       Biden administration particularly for EVs expected
                                                                                               EU                              China
  AUTOMATED         Germany is first country to   ELECTRIC EC adopted a package under                                              AUTOMATED
                                                                                                                                Automated            Draft to amend Road Traffic                       ELECTRIC New Energy Vehicle Industrial
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Electric:
pass regulation for completely driverless      European Green Deal incl. CO2 emission                                           Safety Law clarifying requirements for AV road                      Development Plan for 2021 to 2035 with 5
vehicles allowing commercial deployment of L4  standards1) (07/2021)                                                            testing and regulating liabilities for traffic                      strategic tasks released2) (10/2020)
AV use-cases with focus on MaaS (05/2021)      Shared:
                                                  ELECTRIC EC promoting deployment of                                           violations and accidents (03/2021)                                  Electric:
                                                                                                                                                                                                       ELECTRIC Regulations on Recall of Motor
Autonomous:
   AUTOMATED        France to allow future use alternative fuels infrastructure with directive                                     AUTOMATED                                                        Vehicle Emissions extending original safety
                                                                                                                                Autonomous:          Guide for Admission of
of vehicles controlled by automated driving revision and Strategic Rollout Action Plan                                                                                                              recalls to emission recalls (07/2021)
                                                                                                                                Intelligent and Connected Vehicle Manufacturers
systems on predefined routes or zones starting        EU states with a siloed / bottom-up                                       and Products drafted regulation of safety                                    Top-down approach based on long-term
from 09/2022 (07/2021)                                approach towards CASE regulation                                          requirements for AV manufacturers (04/2021)                                  strategy with positive impact on CASE

                                                                        Positive expert sentiment            Neutral expert sentiment              Negative expert sentiment

                           Note: (1) average emissions of new cars to come down by 55% from 2030 and 100% from 2035 compared to 2021 levels (2) 1: improve capacity for technology innovation; 2: build an NEV industry ecosystem; 3: advance industrial
                           integration and development; 4: build a sound infrastructure system; and 5: increase openness and deepen international cooperation
                           AV = Automated vehicle; EC = European Commission; NCAP = New Car Assessment Program; NHTSA = National Highway Traffic Safety Administration; UNECE = United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
   Strategy&               Source: Strategy&                                                                                                                                                                                                               41
Regulation

Developing capabilities to comply with data regulation is vital
if OEMs are to exploit CASE opportunities fully
Major data regulations (excerpt)
                                     Objective                                          Objective                                            Objective

            Data governance         Strengthen data sharing
                                                                                        Domain and sector
                                                                           Federal
            act                     mechanisms                                                                                               Specify right of privacy
                                                                           privacy      specific regulations for         Civil code
                                                                           laws                                                              of natural persons
                                                                                        privacy protection
            Trade secret            Define and protect
            protection act          trade secrets
                                                                                                                                             Protect data e.g. by
                                                                           State-level                                   China
                                                                                       Grant rights for data                                 storage of personal and
            Digital markets         Regulate gatekeeper                    privacy                                       cybersecurity
                                                                           laws        privacy protection                                    important data within
            act                     platforms                                                                            law                 the PRC

            Digital services       Regulate online inter-                  Federal                                       Provisions on
                                   mediaries and platforms                              Make government-held                                 Regulate handling of
            act                                                            gov data                                      management
                                                                           publica-     information accessible                               personal and important
                                                                                        to public
                                                                                                                         of automotive       data in automotive
                                                                           tion laws                                     data security
                                    Ensure data protection
            GDPR
                                    and privacy
                                                                           Driver’s     Governs privacy and
                                                                                                                                             Foster measures to
                                    Facilitate data sharing                Privacy                                       Multiple national   protect data and prevent
Further regulations                                                        Protection   disclosure of personal
                                    among public and                                                                     standards           unauthorized access
accelerating data sharing                                                  Act          information
                                    private bodies                                                                                           and abuse

                                                                                                                    Increasing complexity and requirements to
      Framework for data sharing/ usage under                  Heterogeneous regulation across states,
                                                                                                                   meet privacy requirements as well as national
      ultimate premise of protecting customers                balancing privacy concerns and adoption of
                                                                                                                                     interests
               privacy and data rights                                     new technologies
                                                                                                                     → need for China-specific data solutions
Strategy&             Source: Strategy&                                                                                                                                 42
Network contacts

        Jörg Krings                            Andreas Gissler                             Jonas Seyfferth                           Hartmut Güthner                             Jörn Neuhausen                              Claus Gruber
        joerg.krings@                            andreas.gissler@                           jonas.seyfferth@                          hartmut.guethner@                           joern.neuhausen@                            claus.gruber@
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    Automotive Europe                        Digital Transformation                  Connected & Smart Mobility                       Automated Driving                       Alternative Powertrains                    Software Development

                                                                                                                                   Contributors

                                                                                                                                    Felix Andre                                Andrew Higashi                           Anil Khurana
                                                                                                                                    Kunal Arora                                Steffen Hoppe                            Patrick Lill
     Akshay Singh                                Steven Jiang                                Kentaro Abe
      akshay.singh@                              steven.jiang@                                kentaro.abe@                          Steven van Arsdale                         Sebastian Jursch                         Nicola Schudnagies
         pwc.com                            strategyand.cn.pwc.com                              pwc.com                             Thilo Bühnen                               Tobias Killmeier
      Automotive US                            Automotive China                            Automotive Japan
                                                                                                                                    Christoph Faller                           Felix Kuhnert

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