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CORE Research
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DUBAI
MARKET
UPDATE
Q3 2021
FOREWORD
DUBAI MARKET
UPDATE Q3 2021
“
impacting market sentiment and translating to a spike
in market activity with the highest ever residential
The transition to normalcy with robust secondary market transaction values recorded in Q2
public health & safety measures in place is 2021 and Q3 2021.
signalling the end of COVID-19 restrictions in
the UAE and accelerating real estate recovery. Whilst oversupply continues to prevail, particularly
in affordable apartment districts and grade B and C
office stock, demand is increasingly catching up and
With the highest global vaccination rate and the gradually stabilising vacancy levels. On the other hand,
lowest COVID-19 cases recorded in the last 12 months, select prime and established districts are now seeing
the UAE government and public have worked limited availability.
cohesively to position Dubai as one of the safest and
most resilient cities in the world – priming it to host Although green shoots were visible since late 2020
Expo 2020. The infrastructure built for Expo 2020, and we remained positive of Dubai’s real estate
including the AED 15 billion by Roads and Transport performance for 2021, the sharp rises in capital
Authority (RTA) is also fast-tracking transit-oriented values and rentals, particularly in the established villa
developments across the public transport networks, and prime apartment districts have considerably
providing connectivity to the wider market. outperformed most market forecasts.
The buzz in the city is entirely different than it was As we move into the final quarter of the year,
this time last year with schools reopened, most flight traditionally a busy period, we expect robust activity
routes resumed, offices, malls and restaurants running levels with demand coming in from new entrants,
at increased occupancy and Expo 2020 successfully investors and existing occupiers leading to a race for
inaugurated. The transition to normalcy with robust quality stock in select established office and residential
public health & safety measures in place is signalling districts. However, it is important to note that market
the end of COVID-19 restrictions in the UAE and recovery is expected to be segmented with a few
accelerating real estate recovery. residential districts witnessing slower stabilisation
rates, while the Grade B and C office stock which has
Most traditional source markets have faced prolonged historically struggled in absorption, continuing to face
lockdowns and relatively slower COVID-19 mitigation challenges.
efforts resulting in many international businesses
moving to Dubai to establish or expand their existing
footprint, with the new policy of 100% company
ownership further aiding this trend.
While visa reforms have been rolled out since 2018
including the retirement and golden visa, we have
seen a significant increase in these visa approvals over
the last year. Other recent visa reforms include the
remote working visa, green visa, a new work-permit
allowing teenagers (15 years and above) to work part-
time and the lowering of the minimum investment
for a 3-year property visa from AED 1 million to AED
Dh750,000. Collectively, these factors are positively
This publication
This document was published in October 2021. The data used in the charts and tables is the latest available at the
time of going to press. Sources are included for all the charts. We have used a standard set of notes and abbreviations
throughout the document.
2 core-me.com/research core-me.com/research 3
Residential Market 4 core-me.com/research core-me.com/research 5
DUBAI MARKET UPDATE Q3 2021
RESIDENTIAL SUPPLY
Supply Delivered by Area YTD 2021 Supply Forecast by Area Q4 2021
Others,
6% Others, 18%
Dubai South, 3%
Al Furjan, 3%
Downtown Dubai, 3% Dubailand
Dubailand, Jumeirah Village 30%
2021 is expected to see the highest number of MBR City, 4%
37% Circle, 3%
residential deliveries in Dubai over the last decade Dubai Creek Dubai South, 3%
with nearly 24,000 units delivered YTD 2021 while an Harbour, 4%
Al Furjan, 3%
additional 13,000 units are expected over Q4 2021, Jumeirah Golf
totalling to nearly 37,000 units for the year. Estates, 5% Dubai Sports
City, 4%
Apartment units continue to constitute a major portion Dubai Marina, Dubai Harbour,
of the delivered inventory, accounting for 86% of the 6% 7%
total residential handovers over YTD 2021, albeit, further MBR City,
30%
pushing villa price recovery due to limited villa stock. Dubai Creek
Business Harbour, 8%
Major apartment projects that have been handed Bay, 13% Jumeirah Business
Bay, 30%
over are Tiara United Towers in Business Bay, Artesia in New Project Announcements
Village Circle,
16%
Damac Hills, Bloom Heights in Jumeirah Village Circle
and 52-42 in Dubai Marina. Prominent villa deliveries 18,000
this year include multiple projects in Akoya Oxygen, 16,000
Villanova, both in Dubailand and Club Villas at Dubai 14,000
Hills Estate.
Number of units
12,000
10,000
Pockets in Dubailand, Jumeirah Village Circle, MBR City
8,000
and Business Bay are witnessing the highest number
6,000
of deliveries and these areas are expected to continue
seeing a steady stream of handovers over the next few 4,000
quarters. 2,000
0
While there have been a few large project Q1-Q3 2019 Q1-Q3 2020 Q1-Q3 2021
announcements recently including the Regalia
Residences by Deyaar, Murooj Al Furjan by Nakheel and
Palace Beach Residence by Emaar, total new project
volumes have significantly contracted with YTD 2021
volumes 47% lower than 2020 and 79% lower than 2019. Villas Delivered Apartments
Although handover volumes continue to be high, lower 14% YTD 2021 86%
launch volumes and robust transaction activity are
expected to keep underpinning market recovery.
Residential Deliveries in Dubai 2011 - 2022
40
35
30
13
Number of units in thousands
25
32 36 35
20
28
15
24
10
19
18 18 18
17
5 12 11
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E
Source: CORE Research
6 core-me.com/research core-me.com/research 7
DUBAI MARKET UPDATE Q3 2021
RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS
The trend of rising numbers of residential secondary up by 108% over Q3 2021 compared to Q3 2020 and 18%
sales transactions that we saw since Q3 2020 continues when compared to Q3 2019, signalling a return to pre-
to gain momentum with the highest ever quarterly pandemic levels.
value of transactions recorded over Q2 2021.
While the preference for ready built stock is expected
Domestic and international buyers are entering to continue, we also foresee off-plan activity continuing
Dubai’s real estate market with renewed confidence to gather pace as investor confidence and appetite
as the current market sentiment is relatively positive steadily returns to the market.
compared to most traditional source markets. A
multitude of demand drivers are underpinning the rise Residential Sales Transactions Trends
in transaction volumes, including relatively competitive
entry points, variety of options, change in LTV ratios, 8000
low interest rates, raft of visa reforms, and an economic
7000
environment of safety, openness, and resilience.
6000
Number of Transactions
There has been a 67% increase in secondary market
5000
transaction volumes over Q3 2021 compared to Q3
2020 and a striking 127% more than Q3 2019, clearly 4000
indicating a revival from both the pandemic and 3000
pre-pandemic time periods. Looking into the data
closely, the villa market continues to outperform with 2000
a 79% year-on-year rise in secondary sales transaction 1000
numbers, while apartments saw over a 62% annual
0
increase.
Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3
2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021
The off-plan market, after facing headwinds for over a
Secondary Market Off-Plan
year and witnessing significant contractions has seen Transactions Transactions
a ‘V’ shaped recovery with off-plan transaction volumes
Apartment Villa
Value of Transactions by Month
10b
9b
8b
7b
Value of transactions in billion
6b
5b
4b
3b
2b
1b
0
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul
14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 21 21 21
Value of Secondary Sales Transactions Value of Off-Plan Sales Transactions
Source: REIDIN, CORE Research
8 core-me.com/research core-me.com/research 9
DUBAI MARKET UPDATE Q3 2021
RESIDENTIAL SALES MARKET
Villa Sales Prices Q3 2020 vs. Q3 2021
Emirates Palm The Dubailand Jumeirah The Springs Jumeirah Arabian City-Wide
Hills Jumeirah Lakes Village and The Park Ranches Villa
Circle Meadows Average
While the villa sales market has been leading the Apartment sales market performance continues to 28%
recovery since late 2020 with apartment sales market be clearly fragmented. The prime as well as central 25%
23%
lagging, we are now witnessing a gradual rise in apartment districts of Downtown Dubai (14%),
apartment sales prices over the last few months. Palm Jumeirah (13%), DIFC (6%), Dubai Marina (3%)
witnessing a rise in year-on-year capital values while 14% 15% 15% 16%
Looking in further detail, eight of the nine villa districts the outer and affordable locations such as Dubai 12%
that we track saw an uptick in year-on-year sales Sports City (-6%), Dubailand (-6%), Discovery Gardens
prices with The Springs and The Meadows (28%), Palm (-4%) and Jumeirah Village Circle (0%) are yet to reach
Jumeirah (25%) and The Lakes (23%) witnessing the pre-pandemic price levels.
sharpest rises, while city-wide villa sales price average
saw a robust 16% rise. It is imperative to note that while -1%
these price increases are significant, they are compared
to the lowest point in the market cycle over Q3 2020.
All villa markets are still significantly lower than their -12%
-13%
2014 peak values and are gradually moving towards
-16%
them. With the high migration witnessed by occupiers
from apartments to villa districts over the last the 12-18 -22%
-22%
months, most established villa districts have limited
-26% -27%
stock and the outer sub-urban villa areas are now
-30%
absorbing the unmet demand.
-32%
While the preference for private, open and additional
spaces will remain in a post COVID world, it would be
interesting to see if the villa market continues to see
a sharp rise in values or witness corrections as most
Apartment Sales Prices Q3 2020 vs. Q3 2021
COVID-19 related restrictions have been lifted and
schools and offices returning to near full occupancy.
The Dubai Discovery JLT Dubailand DIFC Jumeirah Business Dubai Downtown Palm City-Wide
Greens Sports Gardens Village Bay Marina Dubai Jumeirah Apartment
& The City Circle Average
Views
Dubai City-Wide Sales Price Trends
14%
1600 13%
7% 6%
5%
1400 3% 3%
2%
0%
1200 -4%
Sales price in AED / sq.ft.
-6% -6%
-10%
1000
-18%
-21%
800
-28%
-29% -29%
-30%
600 -34%
-38%
-39%
-42% -41%
400
Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Year-on-Year % Change Change in Price Since Peak 2014
14 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 21 21 21
Dubai City-Wide Apartment Sales Price Dubai City-Wide Villa Sales Price
Source: REIDIN, CORE Research Source: CORE Research
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DUBAI MARKET UPDATE Q3 2021
RESIDENTIAL RENTAL MARKET
Villa Rents Q3 2020 vs. Q3 2021
Dubailand The Springs Jumeirah The Arabian Jumeirah Palm Emirates City-Wide
and The Village Lakes Ranches Park Jumeirah Hills Villa
Meadows Circle Average
33%
As seen over the last few quarters, demand for prime However, it is important to note that rental recovery
apartments in select districts has steadily increased, is not uniform across the market with most of
particularly in Palm Jumeirah, City Walk, a few high- apartment stock continuing to see rental contractions
end projects in Dubai Marina and Downtown Dubai. and absorption challenges – albeit the rate of rental
With limited supply in this niche segment, higher HNI declines is starting to decelerate. To further illustrate, 11
demand and flight to quality with a preference for out of the 12 apartment districts we track continue to 16%
15%
14% 14% 14%
superior built and larger/open spaces, a few apartment see year-on-year rental contractions with apartments 13%
buildings are witnessing near full occupancy. However, in Palm Jumeirah being the only district to see a 12%
most of the mainstream and affordable apartment rise. The weakest performing apartment districts are 5%
market continues to be over-supplied with rents the affordable areas of Discovery Gardens (-20%), Dubai 2%
and occupancies under pressure. This trend further Sports City (-12%) and Dubailand (-10%). With supply
reinforces the increasing segmentation in the projections for this year and next year remaining high,
residential market. While the instance of rental rises we expect rents in sub-urban apartment districts to
-7%
and low vacancy levels are being witnessed and widely remain under pressure.
talked about, it is limited to the villa market and a
few prime apartment districts. Furthermore, most While Expo 2020 may see corrections in its pre-
-17%
rental rises are in the new-let villas as landlords have pandemic projections of 25 million visitors, it is
been able to list and rent villas at 5-25% higher rents, expected to draw a large portion of these projected
however, we haven’t witnessed similar levels of rental visitors from October 2021 until April 2022 and -25%
-28% -28%
escalations in lease renewals, potentially due to RERA showcase the UAE on a global stage while creating -29%
rental regulations. thousands of direct and indirect jobs. We foresee an
-33%
influx of jobs during this period in Dubai, especially -34%
-37%
Villas in Palm Jumeirah have seen a soaring 33% rental within the travel, tourism, events and exhibition,
rise, largely due to limited availability and strong local technology, marketing and logistics sectors.
and new international demand for prime waterfront Furthermore, we expect a section of these international
properties. Other established villa areas such as The visitors to be attracted to the business, employment
Apartment Rents Q3 2020 vs. Q3 2021
Springs and The Meadows (16%) and The Lakes (15%) and social proposition that Dubai offers and look to
also performed well and the city-wide villa rental relocate to Dubai thus translating into increased rental
average was up by 14% year-on-year. demand over the near term. Dubai Dubailand The JLT Business Discovery Dubai Jumeirah DIFC Palm Downtown City-Wide
Sports Greens Bay Gardens Marina Village Jumeirah Dubai Apartment
City and The Circle Average
Views
Dubai City-Wide Rental Trends 12%
120
100
-1%
-5% -4% -4% -5%
-7% -7%
80
Rents in AED/ sq.ft.
-10% -10%
-12%
60 -19%
-20%
40
-31%
-32%
-35%
20 -38% -38%
-39%
-41% -40%
0
-48% -48%
Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
14 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 21 21
-53%
Dubai City-Wide Villa Rents Dubai City-Wide Apartment Rents
Year-on-Year % Change Change in Price Since Peak 2014
Source: REIDIN, CORE Research Source: CORE Research
12 core-me.com/research core-me.com/research 13
Commercial Market 14 core-me.com/research core-me.com/research 15
DUBAI MARKET UPDATE Q3 2021
OFFICE MARKET SUPPLY OFFICE MARKET DEMAND
Over 990,000 sq. ft. of total office space has been While new market entrants were limited pre-pandemic, market, the flight to quality trend that has been playing
delivered YTD 2021. Major deliveries include the we have seen a sharp rise in first phase expansions out for a while now has resulted in the absorption of
first phase of the Deira Enrichment Project by Ithra with nearly 40% of our office inquires coming from this most of the prime sub 5,000 sq. ft available office stock.
and the first phase in the business cluster of Dubai segment. The remaining demand stems from existing With an undersupply in select size and superior build-
CommerCity, both projects witnessing steady leasing occupiers who are either expanding or who had taken quality stock, some landlords are achieving higher
activity from both existing occupiers in the vicinity a wait and see approach over the last 12-18 months and rentals than the area average for such well-appointed
and new market entrants. Other smaller standalone now looking to relocate. units, particularly in the strata office districts such as
or mixed-use projects include offices at Dubai Courts, Business Bay and JLT.
Al Fattan Downtown near City Walk and SOL Bay in Although the market is abuzz with smaller spatial
Business Bay. requirements, we are seeing limited movement above We foresee further polarisation in office market
the 15,000 sq. ft mark except in select prime office performance with an increasing under-supply in the
There are no major office handovers scheduled for Q4 buildings. Most major occupiers are continuing to stay fitted, furnished and superior maintained stock as
2021. In 2022, over 1.34 million sq. ft. of office space is in existing premises, either due to competitive lease most of these units are being absorbed and becoming
forecast including phases of large-scale projects such renewals executed over the last 18 months or because unavailable. On the other hand, we predict Grade B and
as the first phase of the office portfolio in District 2020, they are currently operating under a hybrid model shell and core properties, unless repurposed and fitted,
Uptown Tower (Uptown 2020) in JLT and the next and are yet to take a call on their long-term expansion to continue facing challenges in attracting occupiers
phases of Dubai CommerCity. and workplace strategy. We expect this segment and witnessing contraction in occupancy levels.
of the market to mobilise from early 2022 as most
international occupiers are expected to return to the Furthermore, most of the migration of old Dubai
Dubai Office Supply 2017 - 2023 Dubai Office Market in Numbers office next year. occupiers to newer premises either in the immediate
2.50 105.9 million sq. ft. vicinity or to Sheikh Zayed Road and Business Bay
Total office stock
In terms of market performance, we are witnessing a has already taken place. As the rents stabilise and, in
considerable amount of leasing activity since Q1 2021, many cases, increase and suitable options become
2.00
34.3 million sq. ft. 71.6 million sq. ft. particularly in the 3,000 to 5,000 sq. ft. requirement unavailable, the value proposition of these new areas
Grade A office stock Grade B & C office stock
2.31 range. While there is an oversupply in the overall office would cease, making relocations more expensive.
GLA in Million sq. ft.
1.50
2.07
1.00 1.56 Office Occupancy Q3 2020 vs. Q3 2021
0.50
1.28
.99
1.34
17% 24% 100% 18
.91
90% 16
-
80%
2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021 2022E 2023E 14
Average Grade A Office Grade B & C Office
Built Expected Vacancy Levels Vacancy Levels 70%
12
District GLA in Million sq. ft.
60%
Change in Average Office Rents Q3 2020 vs Q3 2021
Occupancy
10
50%
250
8
40%
200
Rents in AED/sq. ft. /year
6
30%
150
4
20%
100
10% 2
50
0% 0
0 Downtown SZR* D3 DIFC DIC/ DAFZA Barsha JLT Business Bur Deira Garhoud DHCC
Dubai DMC/ Heights Bay Dubai
Downtown SZR (Trade SZR (1st D3 One DIFC DIC/ Barsha DIP JLT Business Bur DAFZA Deira Garhoud DHCC KV
Dubai Center INTCHG Central DMC/ Heights Bay Dubai
to 1st to 3rd KV
INTCHG INTCHG)
Occupancy Q3 2020 Occupancy Q3 2021 District GLA in Million sq. ft.
Average Q3 2020 Average Q3 2021
Source: CORE Research Source: CORE Research
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DUBAI MARKET UPDATE Q3 2021
OFFICE MARKET RENTS
Single-landlords and single-owned freezones have Large strata districts such as Business Bay and JLT
mostly maintained headline rents over the last year and are also witnessing a steady rise in occupancy levels
are not displaying the volatility in asking rents that the due to an increase in market activity. Mirroring the
strata (multiple-ownership) market is now seeing. rental market, the older Dubai districts of Bur Dubai,
The strata market is increasingly favouring landlords Deira and Garhoud continue to see contractions in
after being tenant-friendly for years. In certain sub- occupancy levels except for new-build properties such
markets where demand is exceeding supply, landlords, as Dubai CommerCity and Deira Enrichment Project,
particularly for fitted units, are pushing for higher which are seeing a robust take-up.
headline rentals with transactions being closed at
IN-FOCUS: UAE MOBILITY TRENDS
asking prices with fewer cheque payments
Most office distracts that we track have either seen
average year-on-year rents stabilise or witness a marked
uptick. Prominent asking rental rises were seen in DIFC
(13%), Downtown Dubai (16%), Sheikh Zayed Road (Trade
Center to 1st interchange, 6%), JLT (23%) and Business Grocery & Pharmacy
20%
Bay (15%) as most of the market activity is concentrated
in these areas. On the other hand, the older Dubai Residential
Retail & Recreation
districts of Deira, Bur Dubai and Garhoud continue to 0%
see rental declines. Workplaces
-20% Transit Stations
Occupancy levels and rental trends have largely moved Parks
hand in hand with newer DED areas and freezones
-40%
witnessing stabilisation in occupancy levels or increases.
The sharpest rise in occupancy levels were witnessed
in DIFC with ICD Brookfield Place, Central Park Towers, -60%
Index Tower and Burj Daman seeing many new lease
executions. ICD Brookfield Place has particularly seen -80%
a high number of new leases executed in DIFC and
clearly shows the market appetite for prime office stock.
-100%
Feb 17, 2020 Aug 8, 2020 Feb 24, 2021 Sep 30, 2021
Dubai Office Rents Q3 2021 Source: Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Trends – Last updated 2 October 2021, 15:53 (London time), OurWorldInData.org/coronavirus
600
550
■ UAE’s retail and recreation activity is slightly above Change in Visitors by Category in UAE
pre-pandemic levels
500 Retail & Grocery & Public Parks & Workplace Time spent
Annual asking rents in AED/sq. ft. /year
Recreation Pharmacy Transport Outdoor Visitors at home
■ We are visiting our grocery and pharmacy stores Stations Spaces
450
nearly 32% more than we used to pre-pandemic. 32%
400 29%
■ Public transport is still 9% below pre-pandemic
350
levels, however, it is expected to quickly catch up
5% 4%
300 with the relaxation of Dubai Metro’s recent social
250 distancing regulations -9% -7%
200 ■ Parks and outdoors space visitor activity is 25% down
-25%
150
from pre-pandemic level, however, with the onset of
-36%
winter months and a further relaxation of outdoor
100
COVID-19 restrictions, we expect a quick revival -53%
50
■ Workplace visitor numbers have gradually improved -65%
0 over the last quarters with the current values just 7% -79%
-76%
Downtown
Dubai
SZR (Trade
Center
SZR (1st
INTCHG
D3 One
Central
DIFC DIC/
DMC/
Barsha
Heights
DIP JLT Business
Bay
Bur
Dubai
DAFZA Deira Garhoud DHCC Dubai
Silicon lower than pre-pandemic levels
to 1st to 3rd KV Oasis Percentage change pre-pandemic levels* vs. April 2020 (the peak of
INTCHG INTCHG)
UAE mobility restrictions)
■ The time spent at home in September has nearly
Percentage change pre-pandemic* vs. September 2021
Rental range Average rent AED / sq. ft. equalled pre-pandemic levels with just a 4%
Source: CORE Research
increase compared to pre-pandemic levels. *Note: Pre-pandemic baseline days (the median value for the 5‑week period from January 3
to February 6, 2020)
18 core-me.com/research core-me.com/research 19DUBAI MARKET UPDATE Q3 2021
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