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www.policymagazine.ca November—December 2016
i
Canadian Politics and Public Policy
#ERRE
ELECTORAL REFORM
$6.95 Volume 4—Issue
November/December 2016 6
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1
In This Issue
3 From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald
Reforming Democracy
Canadian Politics and
Public Policy 4
Q&A:
A Conversation With Maryam Monsef
EDITOR
L. Ian MacDonald 10 Frank Graves
The Public Outlook on Electoral Reform: What Do Canadians Want?
lianmacdonald@policymagazine.ca
ASSOCIATE EDITOR
Lisa Van Dusen 15 Thomas S. Axworthy
Rebooting Canadian Democracy: More Than Just Electoral Reform
livddc@policymagazine.ca
CONTRIBUTING WRITERS
Thomas S. Axworthy
17
David Mitchell
The Alphabet Soup of Electoral Reform
Andrew Balfour, Yaroslav Baran
Derek H. Burney, Catherine Cano
Margaret Clarke, Celine Cooper
19 David Moscrop
The False Majorities of First-Past-the-Post
Susan Delacourt, Daniel Gagnier,
Martin Goldfarb, Patrick Gossage,
Brad Lavigne, Kevin Lynch
23 Nathan Cullen
The Case for Proportional Representation
Jeremy Kinsman, Andrew MacDougall
Velma McColl, David McLaughlin
David Mitchell, Don Newman 26 Elizabeth May
Keeping a Campaign Promise to Seek Major Democratic Reform
Geoff Norquay, Fen Osler Hampson
Robin V. Sears, Gil Troy
Anthony Wilson-Smith 28
Sébastien Grammond
Electoral Reform and the Constitution
WEB DESIGN
Nicolas Landry
policy@nicolaslandry.ca
31
Michael Kirby and Hugh Segal
Sober Second Thought 3.0
SOCIAL MEDIA EDITOR
Grace MacDonald
grace@policymagazine.ca
35 Nicole Goodman
Electoral Reform and Online Voting
GRAPHIC DESIGN & PRODUCTION
Monica Thomas 37 Michael Pal
Mandatory Voting and Canadian Democracy
monica@foothillsgraphics.ca
Policy 40 Column / Don Newman
No to a Referendum
Policy is published six times annually
by LPAC Ltd. The contents are Canada and the World
copyrighted, but may be reproduced
with permission and attribution in
print, and viewed free of charge at 41 Robin V. Sears
A New Chapter in Canada-China Relations
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45 Kevin Lynch
The Rebalancing of Chinese Growth
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48 Graham Fraser
Official Bilingualism: From Ambivalence to Embrace
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51 Graham Fraser
Le bilinguisme officiel : de l’ambivalence à l’acceptation
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John Hallward
The $2 Billion Dollar Opportunity in Search of a
Public Policy on Philanthropy
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3
From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald
Reforming Democracy
W elcome to our special is- democratic reform than just elector- suggest that newly appointed inde-
sue on Electoral Reform, al reform and notes that “each type pendent senators caucus along re-
timed to reflect the ongo- of electoral system—majoritarian, gional lines—the Atlantic, Quebec,
ing debate in Canada over whether mixed or proportional representa- Ontario and the West—“originally
and how to change the way in which tion—has a different set of incentives contemplated by the founders of
Canadians choose their elected lead- for our parties.” Confederation”.
ers, including the work of the Spe- Contributing Writer David Mitchell Michael Pal, Director of UofO’s Pub-
cial Committee on Electoral Reform sorts through the alphabet soup of lic Law Group, examines the issues
(#ERRE). This issue of Policy is aligned electoral options. around mandatory voting and writes
to our Electoral Reform Symposium
David Moscrop, a doctoral candidate that there “is no conclusive data that
on November 2-3 presented by Policy
in poli-sci at the University of Brit- being obliged to vote” makes for bet-
and iPolitics, hosted by the Public
ish Columbia, makes the case for PR ter informed choices. On electron-
Law Group at University of Ottawa
in an article adapted from a paper ic voting, Nicole Goodman of the
and broadcast by CPAC.
he produced for the Broadbent In- Munk Centre notes that “voting ac-
We begin with a Q&A with Demo- stitute. NDP MP Nathan Cullen, the cessibility is becoming increasingly
cratic Institutions Minister Maryam party’s democratic reform critic, also important for Canadians.”
Monsef. Having just concluded a makes an eloquent case for PR. He Finally, columnist Don Newman
cross-Canada listening tour, Monsef asks, “why is it, in the 21st century,
shares her sense of the mood of the looks at referendums and concludes
Canada is still using a winner-takes- they “are bad public policy.”
country on democratic reform be- all” system?
I
yond “here in the Ottawa bubble”, as n Canada and the World, our
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May re-
she put it. She made it very clear the
ports in from the #ERRE Special Com- Robin Sears looks at a new chap-
Liberal government would not uni-
mittee’s cross-Canada public consul- ter in Canada-China relations
laterally impose electoral reform in
tations. “On the road, we are not following Justin Trudeau’s week-long
the absence of a parliamentary con-
sparring for partisan points,” May September visit to China, and the re-
sensus, saying, “We will not move
writes. “We hang out together, look ciprocal visit to Canada of Premier
forward with any reforms without
out for each other and are all becom- Li Keqiang. Sears tells the back-story
the broad support of Canadians.”
ing good friends. I know that we hope behind Trudeau’s presentation of
She also discussed her personal evo- to reach a decision by consensus.” the same Norman Bethune medal-
lution from arriving in Canada as an lions presented to Chairman Mao by
On the key question of whether
Afghan refugee with her mother and his father in 1973. BMO Vice Chair
changes to our electoral system will
two sisters to being, at 31, the min- Kevin Lynch considers the rebalanc-
require a constitutional amendment,
ister responsible for reforming the ing of China’s economy in a world
University of Ottawa law profes-
way Canada votes. Of the recent rev- in which “China alone accounts for
sor Sébastien Grammond concludes
elation that she was actually born in over 25 per cent of global growth.”
that’s a “no,” citing, among other
Iran rather than Afghanistan, Monsef
arguments, that section 52 of the Finally, Graham Fraser looks back on
spoke of the kindness of strangers,
Constitution states: “The number of his decade as Commissioner of Offi-
saying her mailboxes of every kind
members of the House of Commons cial Languages and finds that Cana-
were overflowing with supportive
may from time to time, be increased da has moved from ambivalence to
messages from Canadians.
provided the proportionate represen- embrace of bilingualism—with the
Pollster Frank Graves of EKOS Re- tation of the provinces…is not there- poll numbers to prove it. And John
search was in the field in mid-October by disturbed.” Hallward, chair of the GIV3 Founda-
and reports where Canadians are on tion, makes a strong case for boost-
In an article adapted from their re-
electoral reform. ing charitable donations, not only
cent paper on Senate reform for the
Contributing Writer Tom Axworthy Public Policy Forum, former Sena- through the tax system, but as a cul-
writes that there’s much more to tors Michael Kirby and Hugh Segal tural mindset among Canadians.
November/December 2016
4
Q&A: A Conversation With
Maryam Monsef
Policy Editor L. Ian MacDonald sat down with Demo- mittee and what you’re seeing out-
side among the voices of the people
cratic Institutions Minister Maryam Monsef in her Centre in the country?
Block office on October 5. The conversation touched on
Maryam Monsef: I have a lot of
referendums, the possibility of a consensus in the Spe- respect for the experts and academ-
cial Committee on Electoral Reform, whether the Liberals ics. Many have dedicated their lives
to this, and we can’t do this work
would use their majority to impose a preferred outcome, without them. But there’s a reason
mandatory and electronic voting, and her thoughts on the the prime minister asked me to go
response of Canadians to the revelation that she was born and connect with Canadians in every
province and every territory, because
in Iran rather than Afghanistan. the quality of conversation, the reali-
ties that everyday Canadians experi-
ence, whether it’s in Iqaluit or White-
Policy: Minister Monsef, thank you group of young Canadians who for horse or in places like Winnipeg or
for doing this. What are you seeing years have been meeting every sum- Saturna, they are different than the
out there in the country? You’ve been mer at someone’s cottage to talk realities we experience here in the Ot-
from one end to the other on your about the state of their democracy. tawa bubble.
tour. What are you seeing and hear- And this year they invited me. And I
ing about democratic reform? had the great privilege— Policy: Right. The special commit-
tee’s road show, you have 12 people
Maryam Monsef: What I’m seeing Policy: Did they have some beer? spending a month together on the
is a breathtaking country. Moun- road, and then another month in a
tains and oceans and waterfalls and Maryam Monsef: There was no
room writing up their recommenda-
time for beer! We had so much to talk
tundra and agricultural land and so tions. What’s your sense of the chem-
about. And the quality of conversa-
much wealth and so many natural istry of this group?
tions is invaluable, especially with
resources that we have to take really
young people, who for 10 years, have Maryam Monsef: So the composi-
good care of. I’m seeing people from
felt like the doors of their government tion of this committee is really impor-
all walks of life who… some come in
were shut to them. Suddenly, we’re tant. Form is important when it comes
reluctant or skeptical, rather, at the
going to them and asking them how to function, and so the composition
beginning of the conversation, and
we can increase their participation of this committee, the only commit-
they leave, heard and hopeful, that
and how we can be more relevant and tee in the House of Commons where
their government genuinely wants to
responsive to them, and they’re hope- the Opposition actually has the ma-
hear from them.
ful. So—I totally understand that it’s jority, is really important. We made
Policy: And what’s the level of inter- a time of relative peace and stability. a decision to listen to Canadians who
est? Is it really where Darryl Bricker There is no major crisis happening said there’s a better way to compose
had it in the Ipsos poll—only one Ca- in this country, and people, for the the committee. We heard from oppo-
nadian in five had heard of electoral most part, are focused on jobs and sition parties, and we wanted to send
reform, and only 3.5 per cent were raising their kids, and focusing on a signal that, for electoral reform to
following the work of the committee? their grandkids, and I’m thankful to work, for it to move forward, we’re
I think you called these people the those who do come out and advocate going to have to take a collaborative
democra-geeks. on behalf of those who face barriers and cooperative approach.
when entering those rooms.
Maryam Monsef: You heard about I’m so proud that the spirit in which
that, eh? So that term was affection- Policy: Do you find there’s a differ- the committee was composed contin-
ately coined by a group of young ence in tone between the quote/un- ues. I watched some of their delibera-
democra-geeks that I met just before quote expert testimony you hear in tions when they were aired on CPAC,
we launched the tour. And this is a this building during/before the com- and I hear anecdotes here and there.
Policy
5
They seem to be getting to know each I’m so proud that the spirit in which the committee
other well. And I hope that that same
was composed continues. I watched some of their
spirit of cooperation will be reflected
in the final outcome. deliberations when they were aired on CPAC, and I hear
anecdotes here and there. They seem to be getting to know
Policy: I should say they also have
an exceptional chair in Francis
each other well. And I hope that that same spirit of
Scarpaleggia. cooperation will be reflected in the final outcome.
Maryam Monsef: They do, and ev-
ery single person around that table
has worked really hard throughout
the summer. They were in electoral
reform boot camp before the road from Canadians? Sure. Is it the best deliberations, the committee comes
show began. Every single one of them way? I have yet to be convinced. back and makes a recommendation
brings a wealth of knowledge and with a referendum being that tool
Policy: Well the New York Times
experience, and certainly the chair’s that we use to determine whether or
agrees with you. In a major story on
leadership has been really important not their proposed reforms have the
page 1 today, the headline is: “Why
for maintaining that right tone. support of Canadians then we have to
national referendums are messy tools
take that seriously.
of democracy.” You probably could
Policy: And we should point out
have written that headline. Policy: If there’s no consensus in the
that the special committee of 12 with
seven Opposition members is distinct committee, would the government
Maryam Monsef: They have a ten-
from a standing committee of 10 at rule out using cabinet and its majority
dency to be costly in ways beyond
in the House to impose a preference
which the Liberals would normally financial, right? They can cause divi-
of its own?
have a majority of six, right? sions in communities. And this gov-
ernment is more concerned and more
Maryam Monsef: Correct.
interested in building community
and a sense of national cohesion.
I have a lot of
Policy: So if there is an all-party con-
sensus, the Conservatives would obvi-
confidence in the
Policy: Well, the article points out people who are on this
ously demand a referendum as their
that people sometimes vote in refer-
bottom line. And perhaps all oppo-
endums on leadership rather than committee, and I do
sition parties might agree on that as on the issue that’s on the table, as believe that they will work
kind of the price of the deal if there is,
you know, a deal to be made on some-
in Britain, for example, in the Brexit hard to come up with
referendum sending a message to Mr. something that will serve
thing like mixed member proportion- Cameron, as they certainly did. Forty-
al or something. Where do you think eight hours later, he was gone. We’ve the best interests of
the cutting edge of the deal might be? just been through the Colombia expe- Canadians and that
Maryam Monsef: You’re asking me rience, where a referendum to ratify everybody can live with.
if I have a crystal ball…and you’re a treaty ending a 52-year civil war
asking me to look into it, and I sure was narrowly defeated. And I lived
wish I had one. Look, I have a lot of through the Quebec referendum in
confidence in this committee. And I 1995 when we came within 1.2 per-
Maryam Monsef: So there are two
know that they’re working really hard centage points of losing our country
parts to this question. Firstly, as I
over a question hardly anybody un-
on behalf of Canadians. They’re tak- mentioned, I have a lot of confi-
derstood. So there are cautions about
ing into account, naturally, the values dence in the people who are on this
referendums out there.
that each party has brought to this committee, and I do believe that
House. And I’ve asked them for one Maryam Monsef: Absolutely, there they will work hard to come up with
report as opposed to each party pro- are, and referenda on electoral reform something that will serve the best in-
viding their own minority report. have seen about half of the popula- terests of Canadians and that every-
tion participating in the past. And body can live with.
The question of a referendum has cer-
what about the other half?
tainly come up from our colleagues in We will not move forward with any
the Conservative caucus. And I person- So all of that said, this isn’t about my reforms without the broad support of
ally don’t believe that a referendum is personal opinion. And what the prime Canadians. So no, we are not interest-
the best way to make a decision about minister has asked me to do is to en- ed in leveraging our majority in this
complex public policy issues like this. ter this process with an open mind. place to move any reforms forward
Is it one way to seek broad support And if, at the end of really thoughtful because this is not about us. This is
November/December 2016
6
Monsef says that while Canadians are open to e-voting “the common theme across the country is ‘do not mess with the paper ballot.’” House of
Commons photo
for Canadians, and if at the end of the Maryam Monsef: We talk about this Policy: The government has a time-
day we have an electoral system that in town halls that for some democra- line of having a proposal in place
doesn’t have their buy-in then why geeks, FPTP and STV and MMP and within 18 months of taking office, so
are we doing this? so on, it’s an opportunity to have a by next May 4th. Is this cast in stone?
delightful conversation about the de- Because a lot of people think this
tails of different systems out there. deadline is unrealistic.
We will not move
But other nations that have taken Maryam Monsef: Well, this is a
forward with any
on the noble pursuit of electoral re- deadline that the House voted on,
reforms without the broad form, the research that’s out there, and it has been agreed upon, and the
support of Canadians. So no, it shows that the best way to enter a committee has been asked to provide
we are not interested in conversation about electoral reform us with a report on December 1st,
leveraging our majority in isn’t through the technical aspects of and we’ll be introducing legislation
this place to move any any given system; it’s through a set of in the House in May. And I believe
that if we continue to work as dili-
reforms forward because this principles. There’s no perfect system.
gently as we have, if the committee
is not about us. This is for The process itself is highly subjective continues to work as collaboratively
Canadians. because our democratic institutions as they have, then we will meet this
and our vote, our right to vote, is timeline and we’ll be able to give
so deeply connected to our sense of Elections Canada the time they need
identity. And so it’s about a set of val- to implement the changes.
Policy: There’s a lot of alphabet
soup, as you know, from FPTP to SMP ues and a set of principles, and that’s Policy: That’s interesting because as
to PR to PPR to MMP to MSMP. Is it why the committee—and myself— you know, Marc Mayrand, the Chief
possible people find it’s confusing are framing this conversation with Electoral Officer, at his final news
and that first-past-the-post it’s the Canadians around a set of principles, conference on October 4th, expressed
devil they know? which they easily engage in. his own doubts about the achievabil-
Policy7
ity of the May 4 deadline. And he also lieve that we’re on the right track, and Policy: One of the things the govern-
referred to New Zealand requiring the if we keep going like this, we should ment has asked the committee to look
support of either 75 per cent of the be able to provide Elections Canada at is mandatory voting and as well as
House or a referendum. with the time they need. electronic voting. Can you address
those two?
So I guess there’s two parts to this Policy: If the road to reform becomes
question, too. Could you comment some kind of modified partial pro- Maryam Monsef: Sure. So, both of
on his thoughts about the achievabil- portional representation or MMP or those get groups really worked up,
ity of the deadline? something like that, there’s gener- whether it’s online or in town halls or
ally a threshold level for parties to get in our more private meetings behind
members’ seats, usually around five closed doors. There are some who say
I can’t talk about per cent. Are you on board with that? mandatory voting is one way to in-
Mr. Mayrand without crease participation and engagement.
acknowledging the
If you ask me, what Policy: Although in Australia you can
tremendous leadership and spoil your ballot.
ingredients do
service that he’s offered to
Canadians want their Maryam Monsef: You can, and in
our country. Some of the
electoral system to be made Australia you can show up and not
really innovative work that vote, and that showing up is manda-
up of, I can talk to you about
he’s done, some of the tory. There’s some people who have a
that. I can tell you that lot of fun with this question of man-
interesting pilot projects like
Canadians—loud and datory voting and say: incentives. In-
having polling stations on
clear—have said that stead of penalizing people, why don’t
post-secondary campuses. you consider giving incentives, like
maintaining their connection
tax breaks? And then there are some
to their local representative who say, you know what, making vot-
is critical. ing mandatory is not going to get to
Maryam Monsef: I think there’s the heart of why people don’t vote.
three parts to this question because People don’t vote because they’re
I can’t talk about Mr. Mayrand with- either disillusioned or apathetic or
out acknowledging the tremendous they’re just too busy. And so perhaps,
Maryam Monsef: So I’m not there.
leadership and service that he’s of- one way to address that is through
So you’re going into details that I
fered to our country. Some of the re- information, and expanding the role
don’t think we’re quite there yet.
ally innovative work that he’s done, of the Chief Electoral Officer to help
You want to ask me my principles? If
some of the interesting pilot projects with increasing people’s understand-
you ask me, what ingredients do Ca- ing of election time and place that the
like having polling stations on post- nadians want their electoral system voting is going to take place.
secondary campuses. His advisory to be made up of, I can talk to you
group on persons with disabilities. about that. I can tell you that Ca- People talk about some interesting
These achievements I hear about on nadians—loud and clear—have said ideas, like a weekend or a holiday ded-
the road across the country, so I just that maintaining their connection icated to voting as a way of increasing
need to acknowledge his great work. to their local representative is criti- engagement. People talk about how
And we have a lot of lessons to learn cal. And everywhere I go, people talk important it is to have a diverse range
about the importance of inclusion of candidates put their name on the
from places like Australia and New
and accessibility in our voting sys- ballot. I hear from all sorts of different
Zealand and Estonia and Germany—
tem so that we stop leaving behind groups, whether it’s new Canadians
other nations that have taken on
the same groups of people—that we or indigenous youth or LBGTQ rep-
electoral reform. But Canada is not
allow them an opportunity to fully resentatives who say ‘one of the rea-
those countries. And certainly we
participate in our democratic institu- sons our communities don’t vote is
have a prime minister who is ambi-
because we don’t see people like us in
tious, who dreams big and gets things tions. And they want us to maintain
that place. We don’t hear our voices
done. And so I believe where there’s the integrity of the system that we
in that place.’ And so that is some-
a will there’s a way, in the same way have. This… I can speak about with
thing that we need to address.
that, at first, they said the Syrian refu- you, but the details about the design,
gees, the timeline just simply was not we have a really thoughtful group of As far as online voting goes, Canadi-
enough. Well, we were able to make parliamentarians who are working ans are doing their shopping online.
really good things happen with sup- on the committee to do just that, They’re doing their banking online.
port from the public service and come and I’m going to wait for their report In some municipalities they’re even
really close to that timeline. So, I be- before I get into those details. voting online. And so they recognize
November/December 20168
that we need to consider it. They rec- them: I think there are two things. talking about this around the family
ognize that for many of us, voting One is, do we have the technological table. And the turnout in the advance
online is a luxury. But for those with capacity to make this happen? And if poll last October was nearly 21 per
mobility issues, for those who aren’t we don’t have it right now, I do be- cent of the total vote.
able to leave the house for whatever lieve that there’s a young person in
a basement somewhere working on Maryam Monsef: It was high.
reasons, online voting is not a nice-
to-have; it’s a must have. that technology as we speak, and we
will see it very, very soon.
So here’s where Canadians are such The common theme
But the second piece is public per-
reasonable people. They also under- across the country is,
ception. Canadians want to make
stand that while online voting would
sure that they can continue to ben- “do not mess with the paper
increase accessibility, the integrity efit from the secrecy of the vote. ballot”. You can add more
of the vote needs to be maintained. They want to make sure that we options to increase
And so they want us to do research, can still verify the vote. They want
they want us to make it happen, but accessibility, but people like
to make sure that there is an audit
they’re nervous about the stories trail so that if there’s a need for a going to the polling station
they hear, with the integrity of the recount, that can happen. They’re and waiting in line and
vote being compromised. concerned about the possibility of meeting their neighbours
coercion. That if there’s a woman,
and having a conversation,
for example, who lives with—in a
As far as online violent situation, her partner could and that piece of paper and
voting goes, intimidate her into voting a certain that pencil, there’s something
Canadians are doing their
way. And so balancing the integ- about that ritual in a country
rity of the vote with the accessibil-
shopping online. They’re like ours where we don’t have
ity that online voting provides is a
doing their banking online. really interesting conversation that many rituals that we can all
In some municipalities they’re Canadians are having. take part in.
even voting online. And so But the common theme across the
they recognize that we need country is, “do not mess with the pa-
to consider it. They recognize per ballot”. You can add more options
to increase accessibility, but people Policy: It was way up. In my voting
that for many of us, voting like going to the polling station and station in Montreal, people were lined
online is a luxury. But for waiting in line and meeting their up out onto the street as families at
those with mobility issues, neighbours and having a conversa- the advance poll.
for those who aren’t able to tion, and that piece of paper and that
pencil, there’s something about that Maryam Monsef: Same in Peterbor-
leave the house for whatever ritual in a country like ours where ough-Kawartha, my riding.
reasons, online voting is we don’t have many rituals that we
Policy: You came to this country
not a nice-to-have; it’s a can all take part in. There’s some-
thing about that ritual that is sacred as a refugee with your mother and
must have. your sisters, and here you are at the
and Canadians want to maintain. For
18-year-olds, in a country where there age of 31, responsible for how the
is no rite of passage from adolescence country elects the next Parliament.
into adulthood, casting that ballot be- What does that tell you about Cana-
comes a really important rite of pas- da as a country?
Policy: So there are cybersecurity is-
sage. And in every province and terri-
sues around this. Maryam Monsef: This is a great
tory, I have been asked to, please, do
country. Somebody like me comes
not take away the paper ballot.
Maryam Monsef: Yes. And Canadi- here, has the privileges and opportu-
ans—I think there are two issues with Policy: You know, talking about nities to represent a community that
online voting. One is, is the technol- turnout, it has increased from 2008, supported her that’s nurtured her in
ogy there? And I think that—and we a record low of 59 per cent, to 68 per the House of Commons, but we also
were at a conference just a couple of cent in 2015. Partly I think because of have a prime minister who says, here’s
weeks ago with e-Democracy and Mc- the fixed election date being the third a really important file, I want you to
Master, for example, and I think it was Monday in October, a week after the go listen to Canadians and come back
Ottawa U, they were hosting a sympo- advance poll over Thanksgiving week- with something meaningful. This is a
sium on just this. And I shared with end, when people are together and great country.
Policy9
And this path I’m walking on, it’s been a new life in Peterborough. So that’s Policy: What have the last couple of
paved for me by a lot of women and what kept us in Peterborough. weeks, in terms of your birth place be-
men who have worked really hard. ing Iran rather than Afghanistan, told
Some have given up their lives to pro- Policy: And Peterborough is quint- you about the kindness of Canadians
tect it. And then the Famous Five stat- essentially Canadian because as you and the kindness of strangers?
ue (on the Hill) every day is a constant know it is the home of focus groups
reminder of the hard work those wom- in Canada. Maryam Monsef: My inboxes, my
en did and their allies did to make sure social media platforms, my physi-
that women could even vote. cal mailboxes are filled with let-
Everything I’ve ters and notes and comments from
So what does that say about Canada people who have shared their family
and what does that say about our dem- learned about stories, some similar to mine more
ocratic institutions? They’ve served democracy I’ve learned in than others, and who’ve said you
us well, those institutions. And if we Peterborough. What I’ve are a Canadian. What matters to us
want them to continue to be relevant, learned about the is that you were born and that you
if we want to make sure that we take came here, and that you do a good
a responsible and proactive approach
importance of grassroots and
job with this file you’ve been tasked
at a time of peace and stability, like community being at the with. And look, I think this is the
now, to look at them seriously, come heart of a healthy greatest country in the world, and as
up with ways to modernize them, democracy, I’ve learned it in difficult as the last couple of weeks
maintain what’s working, then we have been for me and my family, it’s
make sure that we protect this incred-
Peterborough.
renewed… it’s rekindled the fire in
ible country and these democratic in- the belly that motivated me to run
stitutions for the next generation, so for office in the first place. And so
that the next generation of Canadi- I am grateful for all the people who
ans who are going to take these seats, helped rekindle that fire.
benefit from the same opportunities
and privileges, and take things one Maryam Monsef: That’s right. And I learned—the revelation I
step further. learned about, essentially at the same
Policy: Where, as you know, a lot of time as the rest of Canada. And while
Policy: How did the Monsef women public opinion research is done there, there is some privilege in privacy, I
end up in Peterborough anyway? and not by accident. can tell you that knowing that my
story is a common story in Canada,
Maryam Monsef: My uncle lived Maryam Monsef: No. We have a
knowing that I am not alone, and
in Peterborough at the time. And so really interesting demographic, and knowing that more people are now
it makes sense to go to a place where everything I’ve learned about democ- connecting with me in this place as
you know someone who speaks your
racy I’ve learned in Peterborough. their minister for democratic institu-
language who can help show you
What I’ve learned about the impor- tions—that goes a really long way in
around and get you settled in. But I
tance of grassroots and community motivating me to continue the work
don’t think that’s the question. The
question is what kept us in Peterbor- being at the heart of a healthy de- that I’m doing.
ough? Because I certainly—I’m pretty mocracy, I’ve learned it in Peterbor-
sure I cried every night for that first ough. What I’ve learned about the
year, just wanting to go back to the importance of listening to people be-
families we left behind, to the fa- fore making decisions as elected of-
miliarity, and I didn’t speak the lan- ficials, I’ve learned in Peterborough. I
guage, I didn’t understand the cul- have mentors there who have taught
ture. I was bullied. But what kept us in me that, before you start a town hall
Peterborough was a really welcoming or any conversation where you’re
community. Some kids can be unkind
seeking opinion, it’s really important
and even cruel sometimes, and an
to ask who’s not in the room. And it’s
11-year-old doesn’t really understand
really important to remind the peo-
that. But the 11-year-old in me under-
stood deeply the kindness of strang- ple in the room to not just advocate
ers when people who couldn’t even on their own behalf but on behalf of
communicate with us were going out their neighbours and friends and col-
of their way to make sure that we felt leagues who couldn’t be in the room.
like we belonged, that we could start That’s Peterborough.
November/December 201610
The Public Outlook
on Electoral Reform:
What Do Canadians Want?
Frank Graves
4) Should we be broadening the
A majority of Canadians, 54 per cent, think “there is a horizon of reforms to consider
need for electoral reform,” and a plurality, 47 per cent, things other than alternatives to
the first-past-the-post system?
think any changes should be put the people in a referen-
5) What would a citizen-built system
dum, versus 43 per cent who do not. These are among of democratic reforms look like?
the findings of an extensive public opinion poll by EKOS The question of whether or not we
Research in mid-October. need to make changes is rooted in
the question of whether the current
system is performing adequately or
T
needs to be improved. We know that
he issue of electoral reform is trust in government. Consider this Canada, like virtually all advanced
of great importance to citi- research an example of just that and western democracies, has experi-
zens. The issue does not pro- imagine that informed, reflected, and enced a precipitous decline in trust
duce the same visceral immediacy representative engagement became in government over the past several
as debates about health care, cli- part of routine governance. decades. The incidence of those who
mate change or economic stagna- say they can trust the government in
We are going to organize the rest of
tion. It does, however, find its roots Ottawa to do the right thing is less
this discussion around five central
in deep historical shifts in the rela- than half what it was in the 1960s.
questions;
tionship between citizens and their On the other hand, we have seen an
governments. 1) What is the current state of health
impressive rise in this indicator since
of Canadian democracy?
We are going to try and distill the pub- the change in government last year.
lic preferences for moving forward on 2) How is the public seeing the issue However, we suspect that this im-
these issues. There is no overall con- of electoral reform? provement is not sufficient to deal
sensus and there are those who would 3) What should be the next steps? with the depths of the problems and
be quite content with the status quo. Should we move forward or delay? our respondents also tell us that.
Despite these cleavages, there is a clear
overall lean that there is a problem
and that it needs fixing. Most citizens Chart 1: Tracking Trust in Government
agree that the status quo is flawed
and change is required. Changes will Q. How much do you trust the government in Ottawa/
inevitably leave some unhappy but Washington to do what is right?
there would be even more discontent % who say MOST/ALL THE TIME
if nothing were to change. 80
In this discussion, we are sharing the 70
increasingly reflected views of a repre- Americans Canadians
60
sentative sample of Canadians. Some
50
of the key questions have been asked
repeatedly over the years so we can 40
judge the trajectory of concerns and 30
preferences. It is notable that while 20
there is a desire to change the elec- 10
toral system, the very act of rigorous 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
citizen engagement is seen as one of BASE: Canadians (online only); October 12-14, 2016, n=1,098, MOE +/- 3.0%, 19 times out of 20
the most promising ways of renewing
Policy11
While the bounce is impressive, it has half of the citizenry think their gov- Canadians believe our system is
flattened and may well decline again. ernment doesn’t care about them. flawed and needs repairs but they
It is notable how closely Canada and don’t think it is a wreck. It is more
Against this rather bleak outlook, we
the United States have been follow- about how it can be better, fairer,
submit our 20 plus years tracking of
ing the same trajectory. and more responsive in the future.
whether or not Canada has the best
Canadians want to rethink—not re-
Looking at another barometer of system of government in the world.
invent—their democracy.
democratic health, we have tracked This rather lofty yardstick is satisfied
W
political cynicism for the past 15 for slightly over half of all Canadians.
hile we have seen some
years. Once again, we see a signifi- This represents a slight uptick from
modest improvements the
cant uptick in outlook on this indi- the modest down tick that occurred
overall picture is one that
cator but it is still the case that, by a from 2004 to 2015. Like Churchill’s
suggests there are serious problems to
margin of 50 to 33, the public agree wry note that democracy was the
be confronted. Here we turn to what
that the government doesn’t care worst form of government except
Canadians think of one critical ingre-
much about what I think. While that for all the others, Canadians exhibit
dient of our democracy; the first-past-
is better than the rather shocking 74 lots of skepticism about our system of
the-post system of electing MPS and
to 16 lean we saw in the final stages government but ultimately think it is
governments.
of the last government’s tenure, it is world class.
We will look at both preferences and
still troubling to think that roughly Herein lies a significant challenge.
the sense of appropriate pace for
making changes. First, we thought
it might be helpful to examine what
Chart 2: Most Important Principle of the Electoral System
should be the ultimate principles that
Q. In your view, which of the following reflects the most important Q. How
underpin anymuch do system.
electoral you trust the governme
principle that should underpin the electoral system? There isWashington to do what
no single principle is right?
that ad-
equately
% whocaptures the THE
say MOST/ALL essence
TIME of an
To have a system that is trusted by all Canadians
as fair and legitimate 29 ideal80 electoral system. There are,
however,
70 three clear dominant prin-
To fairly elect the best government that reflects
the public interest and values 29 ciples that are basically tied as the
60
Am
most important: legitimacy, good
To ensure that all votes have an equal impact 50
regardless of where you live or the party you vote for 28 government, and equality. The elec-
toral40system should be fair and enjoy
To ensure that as many people as possible come out legitimacy. The system should gen-
and vote in any given election
11 30
erate20good government (which best
reflects the overall public interest).
Don’t know/No response 3% 10
The third
1955 part
1960of1965
this 1970
ternary system
1975 1980 1985 1990
0 10 20 30 40 of ultimate principles is equality – all
BASE: Canadians (online only); October 12-14, 2016, n=1,098, MOE +/- 3.0%, 19 times out of 20 votes should be of equal value. Some
feel it should be all about turnout but
that is clearly not of the same salience
Chart 3: Perceived Fairness of First-Past-the-Post and may be seen more as instrumen-
tal rather than an ultimate principle.
Q. Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the
following statement: Q. How the
Recognizing much do you trust
importance the governme
of equal-
It is unfair that a party can hold a majority of the seats in the Washington to do what
ity and basic fairness, the next indi-is right?
House of Commons with less than 40% of the vote cator% gets to MOST/ALL
who say the essential problem
THE TIME
with80the status quo. In a nutshell, the
October 2016 public think that a party’s success in
70
terms of seats should reflect its share Am
4 19 17 61 60
of popular vote.
50
BASE: Canadians (online only); October 12-14, 2016, n=1,098, MOE +/- 3.0%, 19 times out of 20 Despite a bump up in trust since
40
December 2015 the last election a clear and growing
30
majority think that the majorities
4 21 19 56 achieved
20 in 2011 and last October vi-
olate10
this basic canon of equality and
BASE: Canadians (online only); December 7-10, 2015, n=1,811, MOE +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20
fairness.
1955The
1960public separate
1965 1970 1975 their
1980 1985 1990
DK/NR Disagree (1-3) Neither (4) Agree (5-7) satisfaction with any given election
from their conviction that in an ideal
Q. In your view, which of the following refl
principle that should underpin the elect
November/December 2016
To have a system that is trusted by all CanadDe
4
12
BAS
world half the seats should require
half the vote. Chart 4: Preferred Form of Electoral Reform
While the testing of electoral reform
Q. Please rank these three systems from best to worst in terms of
alternatives can be made quite com-
how beneficial you think they would be for Canada. Q. H
plex we wanted to keep it simple and
link it back to ultimate principles. We W
Brief introduction
experimentally tested two versions of %Q.
w
the three main alternatives. In one Proportional representation 42 32 23 3 80
we gave a very basic description that Preferential voting 30 35 29 6 70
allows us to track it against earlier sur- First-past-the-post 27 29 43 2 60
veys. A second version was randomly BASE: Canadians (half-sample, online only); October 12-14, 2016, n=570,
MOE +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20 50Oc
assigned to half the sample. They
got a more detailed description and Detailed introduction (i.e., ‘informed ’ respondents) 40
a basic summary of the key pro and 30
4
Proportional representation 39 33 24 4
con arguments. The two methods BAS
20
produced similar results with the key
Preferential voting 25 34 36 5
10De
difference being the relatively better First-past-the-post 35 28 34 3 19
performance of the first-past-the-post BASE: Canadians (half-sample, online only); October 12-14, 2016, n=528,
MOE +/- 4.3%,19 times out of 20 4
in the informed version
Best option for Canada Second-best option for Canada BAS
Overall, the results are relatively clear Worst option for Canada DK/NR Q. I
but provide no consensus position. In p
all versions, proportional representa-
tion does best. First-past-the-post Chart 5: Perceived Need for Electoral Reform
does worst in the less informed ver- Q.
sion but the clear advantage of the Q.
Q.Which of the following views comes closest to your own?
preferential over the first-past-the- %w
post is more modest in the informed 80
rega
version. 11 Canada’s electoral system does a good job in 70
Is the current system broken or representing the will of voters Oce
To
60
sound? The previous seems to suggest 34 and doesn’t need to be changed
504
it is broken (albeit not structurally). Canada’s electoral system does not do a
good job in representing what voters want 40
BAS
54
S
and needs to be changed 30
o should we move forward? The De
BASE:
case seems to lean yes to mak- DK/NR 20
ing major changes but there are 104
some pretty stark divisions. 19
BASE: Canadians (online only); October 12-14, 2016, n=1,098, MOE +/- 3.0%, 19 times out of 20
BAS
A modest majority think we need to
make changes while around a third
think the current system is sound. Chart 6: Need for Democratic Change by Age Q.
This is highly correlated with party
Q. Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following Q. H
support and age. Older Canada and statement:
Conservative supporters think we I see no reason to make major changes in how democracy in W
should leave well enough alone. Ev- Canada works %w
eryone else—particularly younger 80
Canada—says change please. Overall 2 48 13 36 70
A closely related question provides rega
60
a similar, if somewhat closer result.4 21 19
BASE: Canadians (online only); December 7-10, 2015, n=1,8
13
gage in a cautious approach that sat-
Chart 7: Views on Electoral Reform isfies the need for deliberation and
consultation. The do current govern-
Q. Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with Q.Q.How
Pleasemuch
rate the you trust
extent to whichtheyougovernme
agree or
ment isWashington
expected to deliver
to do on
what this
is right?
the following statements: following statement:
promise It (which wasthat
is unfair loosely support-
% who say MOST/ALL THEaTIME
party can hold a m
Electoral reform is something the ed by the NDP
House and
of the
Commons Green Party).
with less than 40
80
Liberal Party campaigned on, so they 2 22 17 59 The public see no need for undue
should deliver on this promise haste, October
70 2016 is a desire to see
some of which
Am
Electoral reform is too important to be this go away and some of which is a
60
Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following
rushed; the process should be slowed down 2 27 16 55 desire504
for care.19There is a 17 clear lean to
and subjected to more public consultations wanting this solved before the next
40
BASE: Canadians (online only); October 12-14, 2016, n=1,09
Electoral reform is crucially important and election but the gap with it could be
should not be delayed for another 2 33 17 48 delayedDecember
30
is not huge. 2015
election cycle 20
104
So how about21 that referendum? 19 The
DK/NR Disagree (1-3) Neither (4) Agree (5-7) views 1955
here1960are 1965
pretty1970 evenly
1975 split.
1980 1985 1990
BASE: Canadians (online only); December 7-10, 2015, n=1,81
BASE: Canadians (online only); October 12-14, 2016, n=1,098, MOE +/- 3.0%, 19 times out of 20 The perceived need for a referendum
is much higher among those who
Q. Please rate the extent to which you agree or
don’t want change.
following As someone who
statement:
Chart 9: Need for a Referendum on Electoral Reform Q. In your view, which of the following ref
worked It onis Charlottetown
unfair and the
principle thatthat
shoulda party can hold
underpin am
the elect
Q. Some people say that any change to the electoral system is so fundamental last Q.
Quebec
House
How referendum,
of Commons
much I can
do you trust certify
withtheless than 40
governme
that it would require a national referendum. Others say that a rigorous that thisToishave
a sensible
Washington a systemtoview
that for those
is trusted
do what by all Canad
is right?
program of public engagement and Parliamentary review should be sufficient. October
seeking 2016 quo.
the status Referenda
as fair and legitim
Which statement is closer to your point of view? are % who say MOST/ALL
expensive,
To fairly divisive,
THE and
elect the best
TIME rarely
government that refl
804 success.
achieve 19 17
the public interest and va
October 2016 11 47 43
W
70
To ensure
BASE: Canadians thatonly);
(online all votes have
October an2016,
12-14, equal imp
n=1,09
Am
hat if changes to the vot-
BASE: Canadians (online only); October 12-14, 2016, n=1,098, MOE +/- 3.0%, 60
regardless of where you live or the party you vote
19 times out of 20 December 2015 are not the
ing system
50
To ensure thator
as many
only even people as possible come
the most
June 2016 7 44 49 404
compelling 21
methods and 19 in any given elec
vote
for improving
BASE: Canadians (half-sample); June 3-7, 2016, n=1,158, MOE +/- 2.9%,
19 times out of 20 democratic
30 health? Our evidence Don’t know/No respo
BASE: Canadians (online only); December 7-10, 2015, n=1,8
suggests
20 that this is clearly possible.
April 2016 7 47 47 Given the potentially thorny path
10
BASE: Canadians; April 14-15, 2016, n=1,176, MOE +/- 2.9%, 19 times out of 20 through1955
BASE: what
1960
Canadianswould
1965
(online be
1970
only); a likely
12-14,futile
1975
October 1980 1985MOE
2016, n=1,098, 1990
+/-
DK/NR A national referendum is necessary referendum maybe there are other so-
A national referendum is not necessary lutions.
Q. HowOr perhaps
much do electoral
you trust reform
the governme
should Washington
be delivered with anwhat
ensem-
Q. In your view, which of the is
to
ble of additional reforms that strike
do right? refl
following
principle
% who that should
say MOST/ALL THE TIME underpin the elect
Chart 10: Support for Compulsory Voting to the heart of the problem.
80
To have a system that is trusted by all Canad
Q. A number of countries such as Australia and Brazil have implemented The 70
public would seem to be equally
as fair and legitim
Am
compulsory voting, where citizens are required to vote in elections. and 60
perhaps even more receptive to
To fairly
other options. elect the best government that refl
Would you oppose or support introducing compulsory 50 the public interest and va
voting in Canada? Let’s40 beginTowith mandatory
ensure that all votesvoting.
have an equal imp
60 Many argue
regardless
30 that
of voting
where you is such
live ora the
basicparty you vote
58 59 59 civil obligation that everyone must
56 To ensure that as many people as possible come
20
52 do so, just as they must pay
40 andtaxes
vote in and
any given elec
10 their census form. Australia
complete
has been1955using
1960 this
1965since
1970 19241975
Don’t 1980 1985 respo
know/No
with 1990
32 31
20 28 28 28
good results. Another 21 countries
13 13
have joined in this approach. The
12 10
0
11 Q. In
current
BASE: your(online
focus
Canadians view,
on which
getting
only); of the
out
October 12-14, following
your
2016, n=1,098, MOEref
+/-
Oct-13 Feb -14 Jun -14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun -15 Oct-15 Feb -16 Jun -16 Oct-16 own vote principle that should
and keeping home underpin
your the elect
and opponent’s has led to a fixation
To have a system that is trusted by all Canad
2 28 10 59 on a series of operational approaches as fair and legitim
that stress turnout rather than policy.
Oppose (1-3) Neither (4) Support (5-7) To fairly elect the best government that refl
the publicma-
Apparently, a clear and growing interest and va
BASE: Canadians (online only); October 12-14, 2016, n=1,098, MOE +/- 3.0%, 19 times out of 20
jority of Canadians agree
To ensure that withhave
all votes thisan equal imp
regardless of where you live or the party you vote
To ensure that as many people as possible come
November/December
and vote 2016
in any given elec14
approach. Given the inventory of So let’s put all of this in the hopper popular ingredients of a citizen-built
evils associated with the dark ops of and see what happens. recipe for democratic health.
the permanent campaign, this might
Finally, we look at what Canadians In closing, there is a will and a man-
be a more direct routed to democratic
believe to be the most effective means date to move forward. The status quo Q.
renewal. Perhaps it could be tested
of improving democratic health. A is anachronistic and the public want
with a sunset clause to re-evaluate.
few things are readily obvious. First reforms that will enhance legitimacy,
Even more obviously, when are we of all, there is no single magic bullet equality and good government, There
going to get around to an Internet that will restore trust in government. is no need for recklessness or speed
Second, there is a clear hierarchy of re- Oc
ballot? This could increase turnout but there is a need to move forward
and simplify the task of voting. We forms that would make things better.
bank online, buy movies and music The list is surprisingly topped by citi-
to the next level. 4
online, indeed we do almost every- zen engagement, not electoral reform. Frank Graves is President and CEO BAS
thing online now. Why should we Proportional representation, online of EKOS Research, a national public
De
trudge to the polling station when we voting, and mandatory voting are all opinion research firm. fgraves@ekos.com
could do the same job on our smart
4
phone? Over half of Canadians say
they would be very likely to vote on- Chart 11: Tracking Need for Public Engagement
line in the next federal election. The
polling station will go the way of the
Q. Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the
buggy whip and Canadians think it is following statement:
time to go digital voting. I would personally feel better about government Q.
What about something that isn’t re- decision-making if I knew that governments sought informed
ally part of the debate about demo- input from average citizens on a regular basis Q.w
%
cratic renewal? Is it possible that 50 80
there is something totally outside of 81 81 77 76 75
40 75 70
the electoral system that could have a 70
more beneficial effect than any elec- 60
30 Oc
toral reforms? The public think so, 50
and so do we. 20
40
4
10 11 11 14 16 13 12 14
Imagine that we could go into the 30
BASE
living room of all Canadian house- 0 13 10 10 10 20
7 7 7
holds to discuss the critical issues of 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 De
10
the day. Now further imagine that 19
they are given basic information to 10 14 75 4
allow them to provide informed and Disagree (1-3) Neither (4) Agree (5-7)
reflective advice to decision makers BASE: Canadians (online only); December 7-10, 2015, n=1,811, MOE +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20
Q.
on the key issues of the day. Much as
we have done in this current exercise.
Citizens wouldn’t just have a kick at Chart 12: Best Method for Improving Democratic Health
the can every four years; they would Q. H
have a regular seat at the table on all Q. In your opinion, which of the following would be the best way W
critical issues—not to direct or con- of improving democratic health in Canada?
% wh
trol but to provide advice. Regular government consultation with 80
Canadian citizens that is informed, reflected, 35 rega
Note how appealing this notion is in 70
and representative To e
the tracking below. Moving to proportional representation 22 60
Huge majorities say this would be a 50
Allowing Canadians to vote online 14 40
good idea and would make them feel
or disagree better
with theabout government. The tech- Introducing mandatory voting 14 30
nology to do this rapidly and scien- 20
BASE:
t governmenttifically is more than available. Our Moving to preferential ranked ballot 10
ernments democratic
sought informed 10
institutions were invent-
6 195
gular basis ed to deal with farmers, miners, and Don’t know/No response
others who had neither the time nor 0 10 20 30 40
the information to provide such in- BASE: Canadians (online only); October 12-14, 2016, n=1,098, MOE +/- 3.0%, 19 times out of 20
75 is76
put. That no 75
longer the case.
Q. I
p
T
Policy
13 12 14You can also read
