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June & July 2020 | Volume 76 | Number 3
the world today | june & july 2020
Medical check-up Front-line health workers on battle to defeat coronavirus
Environment It’s time to put out the fire and start saving the planet
Expert advisers Politicians must show leadership, not hide behind scientists
Colourful Linens
112 Jermyn Street Is the virus wrecking democracy?
www.emmettlondon.com Privacy and liberal values lost in the lockdown
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Contents
Cover story 10 Pandemic's side effects
Taking liberties to protect our health Marjorie Buchser From the Editor
Hong Kong financier Shan Weijian on how It was the best of times, it was the worst
China can bounce back of times. So opens Charles Dickens’ novel
America and China: today's imperial rivals Samir Puri of the French Revolution, A Tale of two
Features 20 Interview Dame Vivian Hunt on the jobs threatened by the Cities. At this stage it is hard to divine all
pandemic and the need to avoid mass unemployment the lasting effects of the coronavirus
24 Environment Putting out the fire to save the planet pandemic, but a number of revolutions
Walt Patterson are under way. As Marjorie Buchser
writes, the mass adoption of digital
28 Russia Plunging oil price will hit Putin hardest
technology has leapt ahead, with serious
Philip Hanson and Michael Bradshaw
implications for privacy.
31 Leaders-for-rent is no answer for Ukraine or Georgia
Meanwhile, the trade war between the
Max Fras
Untied States and China has warped into
32 Scientific advisers Politicians should lead, not hide a global test of strength. The Chinese
behind experts Calum Inverarity financier Weijian Shan tells us he is
36 Conflict resolution A good time to talk peace confident that the People’s Republic will
Michael Keating recover, while Washington seems set on
38 The bigger picture Cyclone Amphan hits Ganges Delta a course of nationalistic self-harm.
Vivian Hunt, our interviewee (page
42 Medical reports The view from the front line: how doctors
20), sets out some alarming forecasts
are coping in Germany and Zambia Ben Horton for the world of work. A quarter of the
Britain has become hostile territory Saleyha Ahsan British workforce are at risk of declining
Hospitals' unsung heroes: My time as a cleaner income or losing their jobs, and the figure
Hassan Akkad rises to one third in the United States.
Regulars 4 Contributors Huge numbers of staff need to be
5 The world in brief including Jargonbuster and shorts retrained.
41 Postcard from Great Bahama Bank Megan Farr spends So much for the bad news. If there
53 days in quarantine at sea on a cruise ship is any upside it is the realization that
we cannot simply return to the old model
42 Date with history Marshall Plan is passed by Congress of reckless over-consumption. On page
Mariana Vieira 24 Walt Patterson pleads for the world
46 Review Where does the US go now? John Kampfner to use the crisis to stop burning oil,
How to avoid extinction Thomas Raines coal and gas and move to sustainably
Reading list: Sino-American tensions produced electricity.
50 Culture notes Dancing around the podium Michael Keating (page 36) regrets that
Catherine Fieschi the UN Secretary-General’s call for a
global ceasefire has largely fallen on deaf
Cover by Luke Brookes
ears. But he insists that now is the time
to address conflict zones, if only national
leaders can find the political will.
The pandemic has brought to the fore
a neglected truth: our economies cannot
function without ‘low-skilled’ workers,
such as hospital cleaners and care home
staff. Read on page 43 a refugee’s
experience joining the ranks of cleaners
in an NHS hospital during the pandemic.
Alan Philps
the world today | june & july 2020 | 3
June/July 2020
Contributors
Marjorie Buchser is the leader of Chatham House’s Digital Society Volume 76 Number 3
Editor
Initiative which aims to bring together policy and technology communities Alan Philps
to address the challenges caused by digital advances. In this issue, she aphilps@chathamhouse.org
sounds a note of caution for policymakers. ‘Technological innovation is not Deputy Editor
Agnes Frimston
a silver bullet against the virus.’ afrimston@chathamhouse.org
Design
Alexander Ecob
Sub-Editor
Richard Parrack
Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress is a scientist at the Middlebury Institute of Assistant Editor
Sarah Whitehead
International Studies in Monterey, California. He gives his views on where swhitehead@chathamhouse.org
the United States has gone wrong in the COVID-19 crisis, and the lessons it Editorial Assistant
could learn from South Korea. He says: ‘A pandemic is like small forest fires Nairomi Eriksson
neriksson@chathamhouse.org
which can start up anywhere and spread.’ Marketing and subscriptions
Roxana Raileanu
rraileanu@chathamhouse.org
020 3544 9275
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Vivian Hunt is managing partner for the UK and Ireland of McKinsey and 020 7300 5751
Jane Grylls
Company, the consultancy. She has been recognized by the Financial Times jgrylls@chathamhouse.org
as one of the 30 most influential people in the City of London and awarded Renata Molina Lopes
a DBE for services to the economy and women in business. In our renata.molina-lopes@royalacademy.
org
interview, she warns employees that, in a tight jobs market, qualifications The World Today
will be less valuable than underlying skills. is published by
The Royal Institute
of International Affairs
at Chatham House
Saleyha Ahsan served as British Army officer in the Balkans before training in London. Any views expressed
in this publication are those
as a doctor to work in emergency medicine. She also works as broadcaster of the contributors.
covering medicine in conflict zones in Syria and Libya, experience that For submissions, letters,
provides unnerving parallels with doctoring in the NHS during the advertising, subscription
enquiries and back
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4 | the world today | june & july 2020
June/July 2020
The world in brief
Pandemic
Nordics react in different ways, but is Sweden right?
In the three months since basis to the strict lockdowns country. Ninety per cent of
GETTY IMAGES
the coronavirus outbreak most other countries have those who have died from
reached Scandinavia, Sweden opted for and, if anything, the COVID-19 in Sweden were
has become a country at lockdowns are purely political. over 70. Of these, almost 75
odds with the rest. Through Giesecke was the chief per cent lived in care homes
a public health stance based scientist of the European or had home carers.
on cooperation and social Centre for Disease Prevention While Sweden has seen
responsibility rather than and Control for almost ten fewer deaths than many of
enforcement, the Swedes have years and he now advises the its locked down European
set themselves apart during World Health Organization. neighbours – 379 deaths
the pandemic. In a Chatham House briefing Socially distant diners share per million compared with
Nordic countries reported about the coronavirus a table outside an Ostersund countries such as Spain, with
restaurant in Sweden
their first confirmed cases pandemic he outlined why 596, France with 430 and
of COVID-19 during he thinks other governments Britain with 526 – this is a
February, and in mid-March aren’t taking the same governments are debating major failing for a strategy
governments put measures in evidence-based approach: how to begin unlocking their that set out to protect the
place to limit the spread of the ‘Politicians need to show countries there is no talk of elderly and most vulnerable.
virus. All schools in Denmark, strength, decisiveness, action, exit strategies in Sweden. Despite differing
Finland and Norway were and they jump on it when they The country has focused on approaches, each Nordic
closed, as well as most shops have an occasion.’ sustainable restrictions that country has high public
and restaurants. Finland Sweden asserts it is too people can live with over long support for how it is dealing
declared a state of emergency soon to measure who has periods, and acknowledged with the epidemic but it will
and put the capital under successfully handled the from the start this was a long- probably be a while before
quarantine for two weeks. outbreak and that when its term challenge. anyone can determine who
As European countries Nordic neighbours open up The majority of the people, achieved the most favourable
compare coronavirus-related again after the lockdown they about 70 per cent, supports outcome.
deaths per million, Denmark will be starting from square a policy based on scientific No two countries are the
with 96, Finland with 55 and one. ‘I don’t know of any advice and trust, but the same, but the region, which
Norway with 43 have all been single country in Europe that government’s capacity to is culturally, geographically,
relatively effective in keeping had any idea how they would carry through the model has economically and politically
the numbers down so far. get out of the lockdown. been questioned. similar, saw 17 million people
Sweden by contrast has a toll The exit strategy was never Sweden has tested fewer assigned to lockdown, while
of 379. discussed,’ Giesecke said. members of its population the remaining 10 million
In charge of the Swedish In fact, in late April, Mika than any other Nordic Swedes were asked to simply
policy are the current and Salminen, the Finnish public country. Towards the end keep their distance and stay at
former state epidemiologists health chief, claimed that of May, 17 tests had been home if they felt sick.
Anders Tegnell and Johan Finland had been so successful done per thousand people. From a scientific
Giesecke, with Tegnell, rather at containing the virus that In Denmark and Norway the standpoint, the Nordic
than government ministers, the spread of infections was figure was more than twice as countries will offer a unique
informing the public of the going too slow and that at this high, 67 and 38 respectively. opportunity to compare the
best course of action in daily rate, Finland wouldn’t reach How the virus managed to differing approaches and how
media briefings. Their mantra the peak of their epidemic sweep through care homes successful they have been.
is that there is no scientific until the autumn. While other across Sweden shocked the Nairomi Eriksson
the world today | june & july 2020 | 5
June/July 2020
Five things
The split in Assad family ranks
The Syrian government held the cousins together has want a slice of the economy.
AFP/ GETTY IMAGES
has ordered the seizure of collapsed. The fall of the Makhlouf
assets belonging to Syria’s empire could be a sop to
wealthiest businessman, 3 Makhlouf has suggested President Putin whose air
Rami Makhlouf, a cousin of that the president’s wife, force turned the tide of battle.
President Bashar al-Assad, Asma – well connected
revealing a split among the to the old Sunni Muslim 5 The Assad family, in power
family that has ruled the business elite who resent his since a military coup by the
country since the 1970s. dominance of the economy president’s father, Hafez
Here are five things to help – is behind the shake down, al-Assad, belongs to the
explain the murky events in Asma al-Assad: business ties perhaps in order to give her Alawite sect of Islam which
Damascus. son Hafez a cut of the wealth makes up only 11 per cent of
estimated at $6 billion, but enjoyed by Makhlouf’s sons. the population. The family
1 The split emerged when he posted complaints on faced a similar split in 1983
the government demanded Facebook of ‘unjust taxation’. 4 A likely cause of the rift when the old president’s
$180 million in back taxes could be pressure from brother, Rifaat, moved tanks
from Makhlouf’s mobile 2 Makhlouf used his wealth Moscow, where the media into Damascus to try to take
phone company, Syriatel, and to help crush the nine-year have been criticizing the power. He failed and went
began arresting its executives. revolt against his cousin. corruption of the Assad into exile. The question is
This sum is peanuts for Now that the revolt is all-but regime, an indication that whether the current president
Makhlouf, whose wealth is ended, the solidarity that Russian business interests has his father’s staying power.
Jargonbuster
‘Ramping up’ goes rampant
If there has been one phrase They were ramping up To ‘ramp up’ is a bit joining different levels. But its
that has transferred from the the recruitment of contact more prosaic, because it main metaphorical meaning,
TV comedy series The Office tracers. And then they were simply means ‘to increase’, before the modern vogue, was
to the government during the ramping up tests again. presumably because the a scheme to persuade people
coronavirus crisis, it has been As a piece of business graph looks like a slope going that a company’s shares are
‘ramp up’. jargon it is not as ridiculous from a lower level to a higher worth more than they are.
Every minister who as a sea change or a quantum one. It is possible, were one In this sense, the ramp was
has come to the socially- leap, all ways of suggesting to speculate, that executives a device inserted under a
distanced lectern in No 10 to dramatic improvement, yet giving presentations like it flimsy share price to raise it
speak solemnly to the nation none really works at the level because it evokes in some artificially.
about government efforts – of metaphor. minds’ eye an image of a The ‘bankers’ ramp’ was
variously herculean, straining A sea change was motorbike hitting a ramp at a phrase in the 1930s for
every sinew, moving heaven originally what happened speed in order to jump over what the Oxford dictionary
and earth and whatever it to Ferdinand’s father in The some obstacle. calls ‘a financial crisis
takes – has used the term. Tempest: after he drowned he In which case the origin perceived to have been
The government was suffered a ‘sea-change, into and uses of the word ramp engineered by bankers for
ramping up production of something rich and strange’, offer an ironic commentary. political or financial ends’.
ventilators – until it turned when his bones turned to It is from the Old French Reason enough then for the
out that they weren’t needed. coral and ‘those are pearls ramper, meaning to creep or government to ramp down
Then they were ramping up that were his eyes’. As for a crawl upwards, often used the usage.
tests and testing. They were quantum leap, it is the change of plants, before entering
ramping up the supplies of state in an electron and English, meaning rear up, and Send your jargon suggestions to
of protective equipment. therefore very small. eventually a noun for a slope letters@theworldtoday.org
6 | the world today | june & july 2020
June/July 2020
White House watch
Trump swallows his words on disinfectant cure
Oil deal Under pressure be suspended for 60 days, and Flynn, who had pleaded guilty But he added: ‘We have to get
from the White House, Saudi there were many exceptions. to making false statements two our country open, and we have
Arabia and Russia ended years ago. Trump has repeatedly to get it open soon’. A medical
their oil price war on April 12, Disinfection The president called for the general to be adviser, Anthony Fauci, warned
concluding a deal to make the withdrew from daily briefings exonerated on the grounds of ‘really serious’ consequences
biggest oil production cuts in on April 25 after his bizarre that he was the victim of FBI if workplaces reopened
history. Donald Trump said suggestion that injecting agents acting on the orders of prematurely. The US death toll
the deal would save ‘hundreds disinfectant could cure President Barack Obama – part from the virus passed 100,000
of thousands of energy jobs’ in COVID-19 disease was greeted of the so-called ‘Obamagate’ on May 24 and was projected to
the United States, but analysts by experts and the media conspiracy promoted by rise to 143,000 by August 4.
questioned whether the cuts with a mixture of shock and Trump himself. The FBI twice
were deep enough to buoy the ridicule. On May 19, he stunned investigated Flynn, first as part China escalation Trump
oil price. reporters by revealing that he of its probe into ties between stepped up his threats against
was taking the anti-malaria the Trump campaign and the World Health Organization
Migration ban Trump tweeted drug hydroxychloroquine to Russia, and later over a series on May 18, saying he would
on April 20 that he would ward off coronavirus, despite of conversations he had with permanently pull US funding
suspend immigration into the health officials warning it may the Russian ambassador to if it did not ‘commit to major
US in response to what he called be unsafe. Washington. substantive improvements in
the ‘attack from the Invisible the next 30 days’. In a letter to
Enemy’. When details emerged, Obamagate Federal Open the economy WHO chief Tedros Adhanom
however, the measure was less prosecutors on May 7 asked Trump said on May 12 that Ghebreyesus, he said the only
far reaching. Issuing Green a judge to throw out the case it was possible some people way forward for the agency
Cards, a step to citizenship, to against Trump’s former national might die from COVID-19 was to ‘actually demonstrate
people outside the US, would security adviser, Michael when restrictions were lifted. independence from China’.
Chatham House quotes
When Xi’s mask came off
Right now we are in an are just a developing country If we are to prevent a second our own countries … We have
GETTY IMAGES
election period. If you look at bringing our population out and third and fourth wave got a medical problem that is
US-China rhetoric over time of poverty’. The mask came of this virus coming into global and cannot be resolved
in the six months before an off and Xi started being much the countries that are now without global action, and
election, it always gets much more assertive and aggressive. experiencing it, we have got we have got an economic
more hawkish. He started breaking promises to help the underdeveloped problem that is as big as in
You have a political action that he had personally made health systems of the world the 1930s.
committee supporting to Obama. So across the US cope. We have got to help Even if there is a $15 trillion
President Trump running political spectrum you have those countries that have got stimulus, because there is a
ads about ‘Beijing Joe’ – this moment of reassessment no social safety nets and can’t lack of global coordination,
attacking Joe Biden for being about a much more muscular, practice stay at home policies, even when you add up this
too soft on China. There is a ambitious China. social distancing, or attempt at underpinning the
domestic political element Michele Flournoy, even handwashing world economy, it is not going
for everyone to step up and US Under in some cases to be enough and we face a
be tough on China. But more Secretary of where water and decade, perhaps more, of
fundamentally there was a Defence for sanitation is so secular stagnation.
shift around 2014, even in Policy 2009- poor. If we do Gordon Brown,
the second Obama term, 12, ‘US Global not help these UK Prime Minister 2007-10,
when President Xi moved Leadership countries, they ‘What Does the Path Through
away from a hide-and-bide after COVID-19’, will be carriers of the Pandemic Look Like?’,
policy – on the lines of ‘we April 20 this disease back into April 27
the world today | june & july 2020 | 7
COVID-19
The coronavirus is not just attacking
our health, it is changing our world.
It has allowed the digital revolution to
fast-forward, while eroding traditional
ideas of liberty and privacy and at
the same time destabilizing economies
around the globe. The tectonic plates
of international politics are also
moving as a modern-day clash of
empires between the United States
and China intensifies. In the following
pages we look at the side effects of a
pandemic that will shape our future
LUKE BROOKES
8 | the world today | june & july 2020
the world today | june & july 2020 | 9
COVID-19
Taking
In April 2020, more than a third of the dependence has altered – at least tempo-
planet’s population was under varying rarily – our relationship with technology.
forms of restriction. In the initial phases Before the pandemic, most democratic
of national lockdowns, socially distancing nations saw big tech as a toxic force bring-
liberties
citizens had no choice other than to con- ing more plagues – such as manipulation,
nect with friends and family virtually. Food disinformation, democratic deconsoli-
and vital deliveries shifted to e-commerce. dation and extremism – than benefits to
to protect
Demand for digital tools enabling remote societies. During the crisis however, the
working and e-learning surged. prevalent argument has crystalized around
Within the space of a few months, the immediate needs and the necessity of tech-
health crisis has forced countries to radi- nology. People are saying: ‘If technology
our
cally alter their social, political and eco- helps me keep my job, I’ll use it’ or ‘If tech-
nomic dynamics, shifting many, if not most, nology helps to save lives, I’ll endorse it’.
activities online. It has fast-forwarded digi- Citizens are generally more willing to share
talization across all sectors of society and their personal data and consent to the de-
health
led to the mass adoption of digital tech- ployment of surveillance technologies in
nology at both institutional and individual the public space, especially if they believe
levels. that these measures constitute a necessary
In parallel, the pandemic has also deep- step to fight the virus or to resume their
ened our dependence on the services and ‘normal’ lives.
tools provided by technology companies, This change in attitude is evident in
Marjorie Buchser especially in developed countries. Early polling conducted in Britain by the Oliver
warns that privacy and evidence suggests that digital and cloud-
based enterprises will withstand the loom-
Wyman Forum. Over six weeks between
March and May this year, the proportion
democratic principles ing recession much better than most face- of respondents who were ready to share
are being sacrificed in to-face businesses.
Take Amazon, for example. In the first
mobile location data rose from 33 to 47 per
cent and the figure for biometric data in
the fight against the quarter of 2020, the company announced public settings increased from 37 to 49 per
that it would hire 175,000 extra staff to cent. Willingness to share data on health
pandemic handle coronavirus-induced demand. This status rose more modestly, from 61 to 63
aggressive hiring strategy – which brought per cent.
Amazon’s workforce to just under one mil- Meanwhile, the speed and scale of the
lion worldwide – stood in stark contrast to COVID-19 pandemic has forced leaders
other parts of the retail sector which have to reorganize governments to focus on
had to furlough hundreds of thousands of rapid crisis response. In this context, sur-
staff members. veillance technologies for contact trac-
Beyond e-commerce, the surge in de- ing, symptom monitoring or quarantine
mand is also noticeable on most social plat- enforcement have often been portrayed as
forms. ByteDance, the start-up behind the effective emergency measures towards a
short video app TikTok, has hired 10,000 smart recovery.
new employees since the beginning of the However, as of May 2020, there is still
year. As the pandemic is forcing many no clear-cut evidence that technology alone
young users in need of entertainment to can contain the virus or mitigate the im-
stay indoors, the popularity of the app has pending economic recession.
soared. Countries that appear to have success-
Similarly, Facebook indicated that mes- fully contained the virus, such as Tai-
saging activities on its platforms had in- wan, South Korea and to a certain extent
creased by 50 per cent in the countries hit Singapore, have done so by deploying
hardest by the virus. From a position of a mix of measures, including enhanced
considerable relative strength, big tech is levels of preparedness due in part to the
likely to tighten its grip on large areas of legacy of the Sars outbreaks in 2002-4, well-
digital activity while accelerating its reach developed health infrastructure, large-scale
into new fields. testing and rigid enforcement practices.
In the midst of this accelerated digitaliza- Furthermore, as societies move to various
tion, public attitudes towards technology stages of confinement and recovery, there is
have also shifted. In a March 2020 article,
Wired magazine candidly asked: ‘Has the
A Royal Malaysia Police drone patrols a block
coronavirus killed the techlash?’. While it of flats in Kuala Lumpur put under quarantine
is too early to announce a renewed sense after several cases of coronavirus were
of tech-optimism, our increased digital reported among residents
10 | the world today | june & july 2020AFP/GETTY IMAGES the world today | june & july 2020 | 11
COVID-19
a significant risk that temporary solutions,
which often neglect standard checks and ‘While Chinese privacy, transparency, inclusion and state
control.
balances, are retained or repurposed even
as infection curves flatten. As such, technol-
authorities have long COVID-19 will increase the contrast be-
tween countries with strong privacy-pre-
ogy innovations during the epidemic might
mark a historic watershed which normal-
had the ambition to serving legislation and nations flirting with
digital authoritarianism. In China and to
ized the deployment of invasive tools with- use data to regulate some extent Israel and Singapore, citizens’
out any public debate. relationship to the state is being redefined
While the crisis has fast-tracked the de- citizens’ lives, at a speed and scale that would not be pos-
ployment of both consent-based and com-
pulsory surveillance technology globally, it Covid-19 has sible in a normal context.
Outside this crisis, these changes would
is important to remember that these appli-
cations have diverged greatly from country
provided them with have been met with a higher level of scru-
tiny and resistance. Before COVID-19, the
to country.
In European democracies especially, the
an unprecedented computer scientist Wendy Hall had warned
of the growing fragmentation of national
deployment of technology has been pre-
dominantly led by public authorities and
opportunity to digital infrastructures and competing gov-
ernance visions which ‘were impairing ef-
has – so far – complied with existing regu- deploy intrusive forts to regulate the digital space’. Post-
technologies’
latory frameworks such as the General Data COVID-19, this fracture – the so-called
Protection Regulation. A simple compari- ‘splinternet’ – may be inevitable.
son between European, Singaporean and Second, the crisis is also likely to shift
Chinese approaches to contact tracing apps positive for COVID-19 are required by ethical standards on technology and the
illustrates this point. law to assist the authorities in mapping out public’s understanding of the need for
Unlike other contact-tracing systems, the their movements and interactions. them. The pandemic has forced policy-
Pan-European Privacy Preserving Proxim- China offers the most extreme example makers – in all parts of the world, Europe
ity Tracing Initiative is the only multidis- of the prompt and systematic implementa- included – to reconsider essential trade-
ciplinary effort involving more than one tion of most biometric technologies avail- offs between safeguarding public health,
state. This European consortium should able today. restarting the economy and preserving
soon release software code for the creation The crisis has offered a testing ground – certain civil liberties.
of apps to track transmission chains. These namely the Hubei province – for Beijing to Against this background a dangerous
apps would inform European users, based try out these tools in a more exhaustive and debate has emerged on whether privacy-
on their phone’s Bluetooth signals, whether aggressive fashion than any other country. preserving regulations and other standards
they have been in close proximity with indi- For example, in Wuhan, China’s COVID-19 regarding the use of technology should be
viduals who tested positive for COVID-19. epicentre, local authorities have installed set aside during the pandemic to enable a
According to the initiative’s manifesto, CCTV cameras at the apartment door of more efficient response. While European
these applications will comply with all pri- those under quarantine. Drones equipped countries are unlikely to deploy measures
vacy-preserving principles as established with facial recognition systems have been that violate the General Data Protection
by the European Union. Furthermore, at deployed to watch public spaces and iden- Regulation or reverse it, the crisis will force
the national level, cyber-security and data tify individuals who fail to wear face masks. governments to reconsider some of prin-
protection agencies will also be in charge Compulsory digital health codes determine ciples and regulations in their 2020 policy
of ensuring the lawful deployment of the an individual’s health status, instruct them pipeline. Undoubtedly, it will have a chill-
technology. More generally, the EU’s su- about the length of their quarantine and ing effect on the European Commission’s
pervisory authorities have been consistent police the types of services and activities ambitious digital strategy as well as its
with their pre-coronavirus positions. While they are free to conduct. vision on ‘data sovereignty’.
Europe’s regulators have supported the use While Chinese authorities have long had More generally, the crisis has cast doubt
of technology solutions by public entities the ambition to use data and technology on democracies’ resilience and ability to
they require these applications to meet the to regulate citizens’ lives, COVID-19 has provide an adequate and timely response
principles found in data protection laws. provided them with an unprecedented op- through technology or other means. The
Singapore’s TraceTogether app also uses portunity to deploy intrusive technologies benefits of open, accountable and demo-
Bluetooth connectivity and embeds a num- more freely and in a more radical fashion. cratic systems are once more being re-
ber of privacy-preserving features, such as While the divergence of approaches examined in the light of repressive regimes’
data anonymization and the requirement of between democratic, semi-democratic and relative successes against the virus.
explicit user consent to data sharing. authoritarian countries may be reassuring As Hans Kundnani, of the Chatham
However, unlike the European initiative, to some, the accelerated yet disjointed digi- House Europe Programme, has writ-
there are notable exceptions to these pro- talization induced by COVID-19 will have ten, the crisis has shaken the foundation
tections. For example, Singapore’s Health major consequences for global technology of democratic tenets and raises difficult
Ministry retains the right to use back door governance. questions about whether liberal democra-
entry to decrypt and de-anonymize data First, the crisis has, and will, widen the cies can sufficiently protect their citizens.
logs. Moreover, despite the so-called opt- difference between national governments ‘There has already been much discussion
in approach, individuals who have tested over globally accepted regulations on about whether authoritarian states will
12 | the world today | june & july 2020emerge stronger from this crisis than de- tools in democracies that had so far rejected Furthermore, it is critical for govern-
GETTY IMAGES
mocracies. In particular, although the them. Yet privacy and effective responses ments to remain transparent about what
virus originated in China […] it was able to are not necessarily mutually exclusive. As technology can or cannot achieve. Restric-
largely contain the outbreak in Hubei and previously mentioned, technological inno- tions on privacy that do not prove essential
deploy vast resources from the rest of the vation is not a silver bullet against the virus to save lives, or allow the continuation of
country to deal with it.’ and should not be deployed unquestion- essential economic activity, are unlikely to
In the absence of a clear narrative about ingly. Operating in a crisis does not remove be found necessary by the public.
the benefits of well-regulated digital appli- the practical and moral obligations on lead- Countries advocating an open, privacy-
cations, citizens – even in democracies – ers to act responsibly. preserving and secure use of technol-
may feel that they do not have any other Whether or not contact tracing and other ogy during the crisis should reinvigorate
choice but to compromise on their basic technology-driven measures will prove a democracy-affirming model – one that
rights to increase their sense of security effective to mitigate the health and eco- draws on human rights principles such as
or to support the economic recovery. As nomic crisis in the future, it is essential for the rights to freedom of opinion, freedom
the historian and author Yuval Harari has public authorities to adopt an evidence- of expression and privacy.
noted, the increased pressure on policy- based approach and impose systematic
makers and shift in public opinion may sunset clauses to avoid extraordinary crisis Marjorie Buchser leads the Digital Society
prompt the deployment of surveillance measures becoming the new normal. Initiative at Chatham House
Digital Health Code
China’s digital health code, also called the
Alipay Health Code, is a software that
uses big data to generate automated
decisions on an individual’s health status.
People can sign up through the wallet app
Alipay, China’s largest online payment
company. As of October 2019, it claimed
to have more than 1.2 billion unique users.
After people fill in their personal details,
the software assigns them with a QR
code in one of three colours: green
enables the holder to move about
unrestrictedly; yellow means that its user
will need to self-isolate for few days; red
dictates a two-week quarantine.
In the provinces where the system is
enforced stringently, it has been reported
that individuals without a green Alipay
code were unable to move around, use
services or enjoy recreational areas.
In Zhejiang province, for example,
officials announced that more than
50 million people – almost 90 per cent of
the province’s population – have signed up
for the digital health code. Of these
codes, nearly one million were yellow or
red. According a New York Times
investigation, this software does not only
decide whether someone poses a
contagion risk, it also shares information
with law-enforcement authorities.
The software does not make clear to its
users the criteria for being assigned a
specific code, nor the type of information
that is shared with the police.
Residents in Wuhan make an Alipay
transaction, using an app that also gives
them their health code status
the world today | june & july 2020 | 13COVID-19 Q&A
AFP/GETTY IMAGES
China will recover from this
Shan Weijian, a Hong Kong-based financier, tells Yu Jie that Beijing
needs to speed up market reforms after the coronavirus crisis, and warns
America it will pay a high price for decoupling its economy from China’s
In your recent Foreign Affairs article, the economy shrank 6.8 per cent in the a way to save the economy. Could you
you said that the Chinese economy first quarter. While business has resumed, explain what these are?
has a sustainable level of resilience. demand remains weak. It will take time to If domestic consumption is now the main
Do you still think so amid the COVID-19 recover. There are some encouraging signs, driver of Chinese economic growth and if
pandemic? though. During the five-day Labour Day domestic demand remains rather weak, the
When I wrote that article, I didn’t antici- holiday, the country recorded 115 million only way to pull the economy up is to boost
pate a pandemic. I was referring to the 40- tourist trips, compared with 195 million last consumption. Many European countries
year continuous growth of the Chinese year. I think the economy will continue to and the United States have adopted mas-
economy and the potential for further recover, driven by domestic consumption, sive fiscal and monetary stimulus packages
growth. although the pace is unlikely to be rapid including ‘helicoptering’ cash to house-
The Chinese economy has been severely before the rest of the world comes out of holds. For China, giving cash to households
hit by the lockdowns, as have other coun- the lockdowns. will help but will not be very effective to
tries. China gradually went back to work stimulate consumption because much of
in March after the outbreak had been You have proposed issuing consumer the cash will go into savings. Consump-
brought under control. Not surprisingly, coupons to each household in China as tion vouchers, if properly designed, will
14 | the world today | june & july 2020produce a bigger bang for the buck because, Prosperity Network’ among countries to In western countries there is some
as the name suggests, they will have a direct replicate supply chains away from China. resistance to contact-tracing apps to
boosting effect on consumption. I made the If its purpose is to weaken China, it will be track those infected with COVID-19, as
suggestion at the beginning of March. By counterproductive because such efforts will China has done. Must people in the West
now a number of cities in China have issued be extremely costly if one moves away from accept that containing the virus requires
consumption coupons to be used in con- the most efficient suppliers to less efficient changing attitudes to privacy?
junction with discounts provided by stores ones. It is like abandoning your beautiful Again, I am just an investor. I don’t know
to great effect. But it is all done by local gov- home in the best location in town to move the answers to questions outside the scope
ernments. The central government remains to a less desirable location where you will of my expertise which is in private equity
tight-fisted with its fiscal policy. pay to build a new house, pave the road, investments. But from the point of view
connect to power, and where you hope of economics, I think there is always a bal-
Would you agree that COVID-19 some others will move in to build shopping ance between private and public interests.
presents a unique opportunity to push malls, hotels, restaurants and so on. How Private interests should be maximized
the Chinese leadership towards the willing are you to do it without some strong provided public interests aren’t harmed.
‘reform’ President Xi Jinping outlined cajoling and economic subsidies? It is like traffic lights which restrict our
at the Fourth Plenum of the 18th Party That, by the way, was how the Soviet driving but are needed so we don’t kill
Congress in 2014? Union and China messed up their econo- each other. But too many traffic lights stop
China is faced with slowing economic mies in the days of central planning. If the traffic. There needs to be a balance. Public
growth and a deteriorating external envi- purpose is to reduce the risk of another health issues cannot be solved by private
ronment. The pandemic has added frost pandemic, we know from history a new solutions or by expecting people to change
upon snow, to use a Chinese saying, or made virus can pop up anywhere, including in the their behaviour. There need to be some
things more difficult. China has grown its United States where H1N1 (swine flu) was rules that all will follow for the common
economy in the past 40 years by moving identified in 2009, so how do you know the good. But if the rules are too draconian,
away from a centrally planned system in the next new virus won’t originate from within people will resist. Policymakers will have
direction of the market, through economic the Economic Prosperity Network? Be- to find the right balance or ask people to
reforms. To continue to grow, there is no sides, if another virus pops up in China, help make decisions. There are other tough
other way than to further market-oriented why wouldn’t it spread to other parts of choices facing governments, for example,
reforms to let the market play a decisive the world? how to balance between the need to contain
role in resource allocation. Now that China So what is the real purpose of decou- the spread of a virus and the need to keep
has almost exhausted its so-called demo- pling? Already, all businesses are strapped the economy alive.
graphic dividends, such as migrant work- for cash because of the impact of the lock-
ers from the rural areas, it can’t expect to downs. How many have the resources to You spent years in Inner Mongolia as
grow by more inputs. The only way to grow relocate to less efficient locations where one of millions of zhiqing (educated
is to improve efficiencies, both in the alloca- supply chains don’t already exist? Will youth) sent to the countryside during
tion of resources and in productivity, which they abandon China’s growing consumer the Cultural Revolution. Did your time as
requires further and deeper reforms in the market where General Motors sell more a labourer benefit you in your career in
direction of the market. cars than in the US? Sure, manufactur- business? Or do you regard those years
ing will continue to move out of China for it as a harsh punishment?
Many western economists believe there lower-cost locations such as Southeast Asia. I describe my experiences and those of
is a permanent contradiction between But that is due to market forces and it will my peers working as hard labourers in my
market forces and Communist Party only happen gradually, just as Japan found book, Out of the Gobi: My Story of China and
rule. What do you think? a few decades back. America. Since most of us never received
Ideologies don’t drive but often stand in any secondary education and were out of
the way of economic growth. The former China’s pandemic diplomacy caused school for 10 years, I would have called us
Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping famously a backlash around the world. If you ‘uneducated youth’ at the time.
said, it doesn’t matter if a cat is black or were to advise Beijing, what would After that experience, you would think
white, as long as it catches mice. The mice you recommend? nothing can be worse, and whatever diffi-
are economic growth and improved living I am just an investor, so I am not in a culties you encounter in life, eventually all
standards. The country has done well by position to advise anyone on diplomacy. will be well. So, you tend to look at the posi-
heeding his words. We just hope that the world is peaceful tive side of things. I am sure many people
enough so we can focus on making money who have experienced hardships in life feel
In an interview with The Wire, an online for our investors. But your question pre- that way.
magazine, you suggested that COVID-19 sumes that the tensions are all created by
would slow down Sino-US decoupling. China’s diplomacy or lack thereof. I don’t Shan Weijian, a Hong Kong-based
Do you still believe this? think so. As an observer, it seems to me that economist and chief executive of the private
Actually, the rhetoric or even actions for China can definitely do better. But it also equity firm PAG Group, is author of ‘Out of
decoupling on the part of some American seems some governments need to shift the the Gobi: My Story of China and America’
politicians are on the rise. There is talk blame to China to deflect criticism for their (2019) and ‘Money Games’ (forthcoming).
about a ‘whole of government push’ on de- own failures in controlling the pandemic, Yu Jie is a senior research fellow at the
coupling and about creating an ‘Economic regardless of what China does. Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House
the world today | june & july 2020 | 15TASS VIA GETTY IMAGES
16 | the world today | june & july 2020COVID-19
Today’s
imperial
rivals
Samir Puri looks at
the growing tension
between China and
the United States
Coronavirus has knocked the world for six.
It has cost many lives while upending our
assumptions about public health, security,
society and commerce. Fixated as we have
been on the grim day-to-day developments,
it is still too early to say how it will change
our world.
One thing is clear, however. Not even a
pandemic can extinguish the ever smoul-
dering embers of international rivalry.
Quite the opposite, in fact, as certain rival-
ries intensify.
Liberal voices have called for nations to
unite at this moment of need. Yuval Noah
Harari, the Israeli historian and author of
Sapiens, warned in March of the world fac-
ing a choice between ‘national isolation
and global solidarity’, since ‘the epidemic
itself and the resulting economic crisis
can be solved effectively only by global
cooperation.’
Cooperation is certainly the watchword
for the epidemiologists and virologists,
whose data-sharing and international col-
laboration will, one hopes, pave the way to-
wards a vaccine.
In geopolitical terms, however, the pan-
demic is likely to intensify some of the
deepest fissures that already criss-cross
the globe. One battleground on which the
rhetoric is rising pitches authoritarian
states against liberal democracies, com-
paring how different systems have fared in
containing the epidemic and, further down
the line, in rebooting their economies.
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping shake hands
during a meeting outside the Great Hall of the
People in Beijing in 2017
the world today | june & july 2020 | 17COVID-19
Perhaps the most significant cleavage
caused by the pandemic is the suspicion it ‘It has always been It has always been empires that clash, not
civilizations. In an era of mutual suspicion
has cast on the veracity of China’s commu-
nist regime, and its credentials as a respon-
empires that clash, between nations, of competitive geopoli-
tics, and of autocracy in some countries and
sible global power with a growing stake in
the economies of other nations.
not civilizations. populism in others, history matters.
The world’s many rivalries are clearly
Already, a cluster of British MPs have In an era of sui generis, but the path to understanding
formed the China Research Group. The them lies in something experienced by the
Conservative MP Tom Tugendhat explains mutual suspicion world during the past 100 years: the end
its purpose as follows: ‘The coronavirus
crisis underlines the urgent need for a bet- between nations, of formal empires. These were empires of
territorial conquest and occupation. They
ter understanding of China’s place in the
world, and our economic and diplomatic
of competitive have gone. But we still have informal em-
pires of influence, in which preferential
engagement with it.’ This is a far cry from
the time of former prime minister David
geopolitics and of rights are achieved by great powers over
weaker nations, or by a multilateral body
Cameron who celebrated a ‘golden era’ in autocracy in some that allows some countries to exercise veto
ties with China. powers over its member states.
In the United States, Donald Trump has countries and My book, The Great Imperial Hangover,
been even more bellicose towards China.
Trump’s clamour of suspicion has encom- populism in others, charts the seismic shift to international
affairs caused by the end of formal empires,
passed China’s alleged concealment of the
origins of COVID-19, and its under-report-
history matters which dominated almost all recorded his-
tory. We are still only just getting used to
ing of the severity of the initial outbreak their absence.
in Wuhan. The impact has been dire on and, midway through 2020, there is evi- In the 20th century, the contest between
Sino-US relations, damaged already by the dence to suggest the pandemic will inten- empires reached its apogee, and the end of
US-China trade war, rising concern over sify aspects of global competition. the European colonial empires resulted in
Huawei building global 5G infrastructure During the pandemic people have pri- waves of decolonization. With the collapse
and America’s concerns over China’s naval marily relied on their national govern- of the USSR in 1991, it was the end – for
ambitions in the Asia-Pacific. ments for help. Key multilateral organi- now – of the last formal empire.
For its part, the Chinese Communist zations have fared poorly so far as rallying It is to the end of empires that we must
Party has watched the US and Britain suffer points for an international response. Ursula credit the current existence of around 200
the first and second highest declared over- von der Leyen, the European Union Com- sovereign states. The book’s message is that
all death tolls from COVID-19 in the world mission president, even offered a ‘heart- our varied imperial pasts have contributed
(as of May 2020). The People’s Liberation felt’ apology to Italy for not providing greatly to our seeing the world in such dif-
Army has seen the humbling of the USS more support early on in the outbreak. At ferent ways. Whether the forebears in your
Roosevelt nuclear aircraft carrier, docked the same time Trump was lambasting the nation were once conquerors, were once
in Guam after its captain was relieved of World Health Organization for colluding conquered, or experienced both fates at dif-
his command by the Pentagon. The captain with the Chinese to cover up the severity ferent times, a host of imperial legacies still
was deemed to have shown poor judgment of the Wuhan outbreak. influence present generations.
by raising the alarm over a COVID-19 out- Even after empires have ended, they
break among his crew. Habits of empire leave both physical and attitudinal lega-
It may be an affront to our sense of Every global shock is different – just think cies. The physical ones relate to the very
humanity that nations are point-scoring at back to the disorientation immediately shape of a nation’s borders on the map, the
a time of global suffering but the notion of after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Pandem- ethnic and religious makeup of its populace
winners and losers is inevitable because the ics and terrorism are clearly incompara- and its access to wealth.
crisis is happening at a delicate moment in ble, since the former relate to an unseen Attitudinal legacies relate to the habits
international affairs. enemy, and because analogies to ‘waging of empire, for example a sense of national
Well before the pandemic, scholars and war’ against a disease are not especially grandeur nurtured by a country’s elites
practitioners were bracing themselves for enlightening. who remain inspired by their ancestors.
an epoch of greater geopolitical competi- Nevertheless, the comparison reminds Conversely, nations that were created out
tion. There was already a palpable sense of us that all global shocks, including the cor- of decolonization will have inherited a very
the world order slipping its moorings on onavirus, unfold against the backdrop of different set of legacies, of mental and ma-
the shores of US hegemony and moving historically rooted suspicions, rivalries and terial obstacles that need to be overcome.
through the uncharted waters of China as grievances, and tend to intensify them. One I do not claim that imperial legacies
an ascendant superpower, while navigat- of the consequences of 9/11 was America are the sole or even the dominant influ-
ing past increasingly assertive Turkey, Rus- going to war with Iraq, an old antagonist ence on modern problems. Instead, I in-
sia and Iran. Nations with proud histories of Washington but with no responsibility quire into the extent that different impe-
were asserting themselves in ways unseen for the terrorist attacks. Even amid the rial legacies have influenced current affairs
for decades or even generations. shock of COVID-19, the long arc of history – and how different post-imperial visions
Change is clearly afoot in the world order remains a crucial reference point. of world order collide. This returns us to
18 | the world today | june & july 2020the intensifying mutual suspicion that is humiliation. In recent decades, China has citizens from different parts of the world
driving the US and China apart. Neither expanded its global reach via the Belt and can gain real insights into each other’s lives.
America nor China actively see themselves Road Initiative, in which it invests in doz- And yet, what divides our political systems
in an imperial light, but neither can be un- ens of countries around the world, sending and cultural perceptions remains just as
derstood without recourse to their respec- them scores of workers and buying their important as what unites us.
tive imperial legacies. resources. Pestilence, famine, war and death
The US built its national story on repudi- In other words, both the US and China ravage us in ways that differ from the past,
ating British colonialism in the 1770s. After maintain informal empires of different and yet the long shadow of history remains
1941, it has cultivated a self-image of pursu- kinds, and each holds a different self-image an essential adjunct to our understanding
ing a global role in the name of protecting to justify doing so. While Washington’s in- of modern problems.
the freedom of other nations. formal empire is now 75 years old, Beijing’s ‘There have been as many plagues as wars
Orthodox US foreign policy thinkers do is only just being built. in history, yet always plagues and wars take
not see their nation as behaving imperially people equally by surprise,’ wrote Albert
since it does not annex other countries. Plagues and wars Camus in The Plague. More nasty surprises
Instead it stations troops in military bases Their bitterness over COVID-19 is just the may yet befall our world after the demise
dotted around the world, from Afghanistan latest manifestation of their competing of formal empires, but recourse to impe-
to Okinawa, always with the host govern- visions for the post-imperial world. Only by rial history can help us to interpret what is
ment’s agreement, flexing its muscles from understanding the historical roots of such happening, and understand why the world
these bases to defend its conception of Pax divisions can we hope to moderate their struggles to unite in the face of a seemingly
Americana. worst tendencies, and perhaps overcome shared crisis.
Modern China on the other hand has them, when a crisis looms.
inherited two big post-imperial legacies: A century ago, the Spanish flu outbreak Samir Puri is Adjunct Professor in the
the first is its many centuries as the pre- of 1918-19 devastated the world in the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced
eminent East Asian empire; the second, aftermath of the First World War. Today’s International Studies and Visiting Lecturer
its ‘century of humiliation’, during which pandemic involves a virus of an entirely dif- in War Studies at King’s College London.
outside powers cannibalized its territory. ferent nature, and has spread in an era of His book ‘The Great Imperial Hangover’ is
The Communist Party cites the beginning globalization and technology unthinkable published by Atlantic Books on July 9,
of its rule in 1949 as the end of this era of to our ancestors. The internet means that 2020
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