European Energy Transition Outlook - High-renewables, high-electrification systems - Energy Community
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European Energy Transition Outlook High-renewables, high-electrification systems Emma Champion June 10, 2021
European electricity demand almost doubles by 2050
with electrification and use of green hydrogen
Evolution of European electricity demand
Economic Transition Scenario Ambitious Policy Scenario
7000 TWh 7000 TWh
6000 6000 x2
Other
5000 5000 Heating
X1.2
4000 4000
EV
EV
3000 3000
2000 2000
General General
1000 1000
0 0
2012
2020
2030
2040
2050
2012
2020
2030
2040
2050
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Other is mostly industrial electrification.
1 June 10, 2021Europe’s electricity generation fleet is three
and a half times larger by 2050
Evolution of European electricity generation capacity
Economic Transition Scenario Ambitious Policy Scenario
4 TW 4 TW x3.4
Other
3 3
H&C
x2.2
2 EV 2 EV
1 1
General General
0 0
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: ‘Technology X’ is aPlace-holder for low-carbon alternatives to gas, that may be provided by hydrogen, interconnectors, nuclear or other technologies.
2 June 10, 2021Annual renewables build in 2020s is at
least double its historic highs
Gross annual average capacity additions for solar and wind, Europe
GW a year
133
x2.7
116 7 113
x2.3 99
90 58
x2.1 8
72 55 41
67 69 71 68
58 57 61 58 44
53 48 45 14
45 47 25 12
10 30 35 10 32
19 30
24 23 23 20 25 22 19 27 68 69
15 20 58
37 37 42 41 48
10 9 25 27 27 28 35 27 34
13 11 20 21 21
2006-2010
2011-2015
2016-2020
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2040-45
2046-50
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2040-45
2046-50
2021-25
2026-30
2031-35
2036-40
2040-45
2046-50
Historic Economic Transition Scenario Current Policy Scenario Ambitious Policy Scenario
Solar Onshore wind Offshore wind
Source: BNEF Note: Solar includes utility-scale and small-scale.
3 June 10, 2021A 480GW mix of carbon-free, dispatchable capacity
supplies around 9% of European generation by 2050
Weekly load profile, Germany, October 2050 (Ambitious Policy Scenario)
200 GW
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0 12 23 0 12 23 0 12 23 0 12 23 0 12 23 0 12 23 0 12 23
Tuesday
11 Tue Wednesday
12 Wed Thursday
13 Thu Friday
14 Fri Saturday
15 Sat Sunday
16 Sun Monday
17 Mon
Flexible capacity Solar Wind Hydro Other Technology X Gas
Source: European Environment Agency, European Commission BloombergNEF. Note: Baseline for targets is 1990. Historic and expected emissions include the U.K.
4 June 10, 2021Flexibility needs in a high-electrification
system: implications
Demand profiles for a Northern European country (typical winter day in 2050)
No coupling Inflexible coupling Flexible coupling Highly flexible coupling
Normalized hourly load
160% 160% 160% 160%
120% 120% 120% 120%
Normalized
80% hourly load 80% 80% 80%
160%
120%
80%
40%
0%
40% 00:00 09:00 40%18:00 40% 40%
0% 0% 0% 0%
00:00 09:00 18:00 00:00 09:00 18:00 00:00 09:00 18:00 00:00 09:00 18:00
Residential buildings (flexible demand) Residential buildings (inflexible demand)
Commercial EVs (flexible demand) Commercial EVs (inflexible demand)
Passenger EVs (flexible demand) Passenger EVs (inflexible demand)
General electricity demand
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Charts are normalized to the value of the peak load in the ‘no coupling’ scenario.
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6 June 10, 2021Copyright and disclaimer
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7 June 10, 2021BloombergNEF (BNEF) is a strategic
research provider covering global commodity
markets and the disruptive technologies
driving the transition to a low-carbon
economy.
Our expert coverage assesses pathways for
the power, transport, industry, buildings and
agriculture sectors to adapt to the energy
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We help commodity trading, corporate
strategy, finance and policy professionals
navigate change and generate opportunities.
Emma Champion
Echampion3@Bloomberg.net
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